15 More about Probability

15 More about Probability

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Activity 4. Number of combinations = 4 × 3

= 12
Activity 15.1 (p. 11) 1
P(tuna salad and soft drink) = 12
1. Experiment Event A Event B
Throwing a die Obtaining ‘1’ Obtaining ‘2’
once Getting an odd Getting a prime 1 1 1
5. (a) = ×
number number 12 4 3
Drawing a card Drawing a king Drawing the ace (b) P ( A and B ) = P ( A) × P ( B )
from a deck of of hearts
52 cards at Drawing a queen Drawing a spade
random Follow-up Exercise
Choosing a The letter is ‘T’ The letter is ‘I’
letter from the The letter is ‘I’ The letter is a p. 7
word ‘TRICK’ vowel 1. (a) ∵ There are 13 hearts in the deck.
Are A and B ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 13
mutually P(A) P(B) P(A or B) P(A) + 13
exclusive? =
P(B)
(/ ) ∴ P(heart) 52
1
1 1 1 1 =
 4
6 6 3 3
(b) ∵ There are 4 queens in the deck.
1 1 2 ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 4
 1
2 2 3 4
=
1 1 5 5 ∴ P(queen) 52
 1
13 52 52 52 =
13
1 1 4 17

13 4 13 52
2. (a) Since there are 4 possible outcomes in choosing a
1 1 2 2 letter from the word ‘LIST’ and 6 possible outcomes

5 5 5 5 in choosing a letter from the word ‘STUPID’, by the
counting principle, the total number of possible
1 1 1 2 outcomes in choosing a letter from each of the words

5 5 5 5 is: 4 × 6 = 24
There are 3 favourable outcomes: II, SS and TT
2. P ( A or B ) = P ( A) + P( B ) 3
=
∴ P(same letter) 24
3. No
1
=
Activity 15.2 (p. 19) 8

1
1. P(tuna salad) = 4

1
2. P(soft drink) = 3

3. Yes

1
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) There are 3 consonants in the word ‘LIST’ and 4 (c) From the table, there are 8 times getting a ‘1’, 33
consonants in the word ‘STUPID’. By the counting times getting a ‘3’ and 21 times getting a ‘5’.
principle, the total number of favourable outcomes in ∴ Number of times getting an odd number
choosing a consonant from each of the words is:
= 8 + 33 + 21
3 × 4 = 12
= 62
12
= 62
∴ P(both consonants) 24 =
∴ P(odd number) 100
1
= 31
2 =
50

3. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a wrong

answer. p. 14
By using a tree diagram, we have: 1. Total number of possible outcomes = 10
First Second Third Outcomes (a) There are 5 favourable outcomes: 21, 23, 25, 27 and
question question question 29
C CCC 5
C =
∴ P(odd number) 10
W CCW 1
C =
C CWC 2
W (b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: 24 and 28
W CWW 2
=
C WCC ∴ P(divisible by 4) 10
C 1
=
W WCW 5
W (c) P(odd number or divisible by 4)
C WWC = P (odd number) + P (divisible by 4)
W
W WWW 1 1
= +
2 5
From the tree diagram, there are 8 possible outcomes. 7
=
(a) There is 1 favourable outcome for getting 3 correct 10
answers, i.e. CCC.
1
∴ P(3 correct answers) = 8 2. Total number of people in the group
= 16 + 12 + 12 + 21 + 28 + 16 + 4 + 11
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes for getting 2 wrong = 120
answers, i.e. CWW, WCW and WWC.
(a) P(man with blood type ‘AB’ or woman with blood
3 type ‘A’)
∴ P(2 wrong answers) = 8
= P(man with blood type ‘AB’) +
= P(woman with blood type ‘A’)
4. (a) From the table, there are 24 times getting a ‘2’. 28 12
= +
24 120 120
=
∴ P(‘2’) 100 1
6 =
= 3
25
(b) P(‘A’ or ‘B’ or ‘AB’)
(b) = P(‘A’) + P(‘B’) + P(‘AB’)
16 + 12 12 + 21 28 + 16
= + +
120 120 120
105
=
120
7
=
8

2
 15 More about Probability

3. Let G stand for a green ball, R stand for a red ball, B stand p. 24
for a blue ball and W stand for a white ball.
= P (prime) × P(prime)
By the counting principle, the total number of possible
3 3
outcomes in drawing two balls is: 3 × 4 = 12
1. P(both prime) = 6 × 6
(a) There is 1 favourable outcome: GG
1
1 =
∴ P(both green) = 12 4

(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: RR and RR = P (odd and even or even and odd)
2
= = P (odd and even) + P(even and odd)
∴ P(both red) 12 = P (odd) × P (even) + P (even) × P (odd )
1 2. P(sum is odd) 1 1 1 1
=
6 = × + ×
2 2 2 2
(c) There are 3 favourable outcomes: GR, GR and RG 1
3 =
= 2
∴ P(one green and one red) 12
1
= 3. P(Amy passes at least one subject)
4 = 1 − P (Amy fails both subjects)
= 1 − P (fail Chinese) × P (fail English)
p. 17
= 1 − [1 − P( pass Chinese)] × [1 − P (pass English )]
1. (a) A’ = getting an odd number
= 1 − (1 − 0.75) × (1 − 0.6)
(b) A’ = getting a heart, diamond or club
= 0.9
(c) A’ = the man does not have a private car
1 1
= 1 − P (wear glasses) 4. P(lose the 100 m race) = 1 − =
2 2
2. P(does not wear glasses) = 1 − 0.4
3 1
P(lose the 200 m race) = 1 − =
= 0.6 4 4
1 7
P(lose the 400 m race) = 1 − =
3. By the counting principle, the total number of possible 8 8
outcomes in throwing three dice is: 6 × 6 × 6 = 216 Let W stand for winning a race and L stand for losing a race.
The complementary event of ‘product is greater than 2’ is P(Harry wins exactly one race)
‘product equals to 1 or 2’. = P ( WLL) + P (LWL) + P( LLW)
∵ There are 4 favourable outcomes that the product of 1 1 7 1 3 7 1 1 1
= × × + × × + × ×
the three numbers equals to 1 or 2, i.e. (1, 1, 1), 2 4 8 2 4 8 2 4 8
(1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 1) and (2, 1, 1). 7 21 1
4 = + +
= 64 64 64
∴ P(product equals to 1 or 2) 216 29
1 =
= 64
54
∴ P(product greater than 2)
p. 29
= 1 − P (product equals to 1 or 2)
1. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a wrong
1 answer.
= 1−
54 Since Anthony answers the first question correctly, the
53 possible outcomes are CCC, CCW, CWC and CWW.
=
54 Among the 4 possible outcomes, only CCW and CWC are
favourable outcomes.
∴ P(2 of 3 questions are correct | 1st question is correct)
2
=
4
1
=
2

3
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

2. (a) ∵ The first card drawn is the ace of spades. 2. Let B denote a black glove, E denote a blue glove and W
denote a white glove.
∴ Only 13 hearts are left after the first draw.
Only 51 cards are left after the first draw. (a) P(BB)
= P(1st one is black) × P( 2nd one is black |
∴ P(heart | the first card drawn is the ace of
spades) 1st one is black)
13 4 3
= = ×
51 10 9
2
(b) ∵ The first card drawn is the ace of spades. =
15
∴ Only 3 aces are left after the first draw.
Only 51 cards are left after the first draw. (b) P(same colour)
∴ P(ace | the first card drawn is the ace of spades) = P (BB or EE or WW )
= P ( BB) + P (EE ) + P ( WW )
3
= 2
51 = + P (1st one is blue) × P (2nd one is blue |
1 15
= 1st one is blue) + P(1st one is white) × P( 2nd one
17
is white | 1st one is white)
2 2 1 4 3
3. (a) Total number of students = 425 + 218 + 157 = + × + ×
15 10 9 10 9
= 800
13
218 =
= 45
∴ P(disagree | student) 800
109
= 3. P(colour-blind)
400
= P (male and colour-blind or female and colour-blind)
(b) Total number of people agree = 425 + 92 = P ( male and colour-blind) + P (female and colour-blind)
= 517 = P ( male) × P (colour-blind | male) +
92
∴ P(teacher | agree) = 517 P (female) × P (colour-blind | female)
= 0.62 × 0.03 + (1 − 0.62) × 0.02
= 0.0262
p. 32
1. (a) P(both defective)
= P (1st one is defective) × P (2nd one is defective |
Exercise
1st one is defective)
15 14 Exercise 15A (p. 8)
= ×
100 99
Level 1
7
=
330 1. Total number of possible outcomes = 3 + 4 + 5
= 12
(b) P(both non-defective) (a) ∵ The bag contains 3 red balls.
= P (1st one is non-defective) × P( 2nd one is ∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 3
non-defective | 1st one is non-defective) 3
=
85 84 ∴ P(red ball) 12
= ×
100 99 1
=
119 4
=
165
(b) ∵ The bag contains 4 white balls.
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 4
4
=
∴ P(white ball) 12
1
=
3

4
 15 More about Probability

(c) ∵ The bag contains 0 green balls. 5. (a) There are 8 favourable outcomes: 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18,
21 and 24
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 0
8
0 =
∴ P(green ball) = 12 ∴ P(multiple of 3) 24
1
=0 =
3

2. Total number of possible outcomes = 6 (b) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 and
24
(a) There are 4 favourable outcomes: 1, 2, 3 and 4 6
4 =
= ∴ P(multiple of 4) 24
∴ P(not greater than 4) 6 1
2 =
= 4
3
(c) There are 2 favourable outcomes: 12 and 24
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes: 1, 2 and 3 2
3 =
= ∴ P(common multiple of 3 and 4) 24
∴ P(less than 4) 6 1
1 =
= 12
2

6. (a) From the table, there are 4 boxes containing no

3. Total number of possible outcomes = 10 defective light bulbs.
(a) ∵ The word contains 2 ‘L’. 4
=
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 2 ∴ P(no defective light bulbs) 40
2 1
= =
10 10
∴ P(‘L’)
1 (b) From the table, there are 11 boxes containing two
=
5 defective light bulbs, 15 boxes containing one
defective light bulb and 4 boxes containing no
(b) ∵ The word contains 5 vowels. defective light bulbs.
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event = 5 ∴ Number of boxes containing less than three
5 defective light bulbs
=
∴ P(vowel) 10 = 4 + 15 + 11
1 = 30
=
2 30
=
∴ P(less than three defective light bulbs) 40
4. (a) There is only 1 favourable outcome. 3
=
1 4
∴ P(jack of clubs) = 52

(b) ∵ There are 9 number cards in each suit and there 7. (a) From the table, there are 115 times getting a ‘2’.
are 4 suits. 115
=
∴ Number of outcomes favourable to the event ∴ P(‘2’) 1000
= 9× 4 23
=
200
= 36
36
=
∴ P(number card) 52
9
=
13

5
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) From the table, there are 115 times getting a ‘2’, 103 12.
times getting a ‘3’ and 118 times getting a ‘5’.
∴ Number of times getting a prime number
= 115 + 103 + 118
= 336
336
=
∴ P(prime number) 1000
42
=
125

8. Total number of balls = 6, red ball = 2, blue ball = 3 or

total number of balls = 12, red ball = 4, blue ball = 6
(or any other reasonable answers)

9. It is uncertain. Their probabilities are equal if bag A and

bag B contain the same number of balls.

Level 2
10. Number of times the tail shows up = 80 − 32
= 48
48
=
∴ P(getting a tail) 80
3
=
5

11. Let B stand for a boy and G stand for a girl.

By using a tree diagram, we have:
First child Second child Third child Outcomes
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG

B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG

From the tree diagram, there are 8 possible outcomes.

(a) There is 1 favourable outcome for all boys, i.e. BBB.
1
∴ P(all boys) = 8

(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes for two boys and

one girl, i.e. BBG, BGB and GBB.
3
∴ P(two boys and one girl) = 8

6
 15 More about Probability

13. Let W stand for a white straw, R stand for a red straw and
G stand for a green straw.
By using a tree diagram, we have:
Bag A Bag B Outcomes
W WW
W WW
W R WR
R WR
G WG
W RW
W RW
R R RR
R RR
G RG
W GW
W GW
G R GR
R GR
G GG
W GW
W GW
G R GR
R GR
G GG

From the tree diagram, there are 20 possible outcomes.

(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes for two straws of
the same colour, i.e. WW, WW, RR, RR, GG and GG.
6
=
∴ P(same colour) 20
3
=
10
(b) There are 5 favourable outcomes for one red and one
green straw, i.e. RG, GR, GR, GR and GR.
5
=
∴ P(one red and one green) 20
1
=
4

13. Since there are 6 possible outcomes in throwing a die

once, by the counting principle, the total number of
possible outcomes in throwing two dice is: 6 × 6 = 36
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4),
(4, 3), (5, 2) and (6, 1)
6
=
∴ P(the sum is 7) 36
1
=
6
(b) There are 4 favourable outcomes: (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4)
and (6, 3)
4
=
∴ P(the sum is 9) 36
1
=
9

7
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

14. Since there are 4 possible outcomes for urn A and 4 Exercise 15B (p. 17)
possible outcomes for urn B, by the counting principle, the
total number of possible outcomes in drawing one ball Level 1
from each urn is: 4 × 4 = 16 1. P(red card or jack of spades)
= P ( red card) + P ( jack of spades)
(a) There are 2 favourable outcomes: (5, 5) and (7, 7)
2 26 1
= = +
16 52 52
∴ P(same number)
1 27
= =
8 52

(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: (1, 8) and (7, 2)

2 = 1 − P (defective)
= 5
16
∴ P(sum of 9) 2. P(non-defective) = 1 − 1000
1
= 199
8 =
200
(c) There are 5 favourable outcomes: (5, 7), (5, 8), (7, 5),
(7, 7) and (7, 8)
5 = P ( rainy) + P (cloudy)
∴ P(sum greater than 11) = 16 1 2
3. P(rainy or cloudy) = 4 + 5
15. By the counting principle, the total number of possible 13
=
outcomes in forming a four-digit number is: 20
4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 3564, 3654, 5364, 4. (a) There are 4 favourable outcomes: U, E, A and I
5634, 6354 and 6534 4
6 ∴ P(vowel) = 13
=
∴ P(ends with a ‘4’) 24
= 1 − P ( vowel)
1
= 4
4
(b) P(consonant) = 1 − 13
(b) There are 12 favourable outcomes in which 6 9
outcomes end with ‘4’ and 6 outcomes end with ‘6’. =
12 13
=
∴ P(even number) 24
1 5. Total number of people in the group
= = 47 + 62 + 33 + 18 + 40
2
= 200
(c) Since 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 18 is a multiple of 3, any
(a) P(‘Cartoon’ or ‘Popular music’)
numbers formed by 3, 4, 5 and 6 must be a multiple
= P(‘Cartoon’) + P(‘Popular music’)
of 3.
18 40
∴ There is no prime number formed by 3, 4, 5 and = +
200 200
6.
29
0 =
∴ P(prime number) = 24 100
=0 (b) P(‘Drama’ or ‘Sports’ or ‘Popular music’)
= 1 – P(‘News’ or ‘Cartoon’)
= 1 – [P(‘News’) + P(‘Cartoon’)]
 47 18 
= 1−  + 
 200 200 
27
=
40

8
 15 More about Probability

6. Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail.

By the counting principle, the total number of possible
outcomes in tossing two coins is: 2 × 2 = 4
(a) There are 2 favourable outcomes: HT and TH
2
=
∴ P(one head and one tail) 4
1
=
2
(b) There is 1 favourable outcome: TT
1
∴ P(two tails) = 4

(c) P(no tails)

= 1 − P(either or both of them are tails)
= 1 − [ P (one head and one tail) + P( two tails)]
1 1
= 1−  + 
2 4
1
=
4

7. (a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11

6
=
∴ P(odd number) 12
1
=
2
(b) There are 3 favourable outcomes: 4, 8 and 12
3
=
∴ P(multiple of 4) 12
1
=
4
(c) P(odd number or multiple of 4)
= P (odd number) + P (multiple of 4)
1 1
= +
2 4
3
=
4

8. By the counting principle, the total number of possible

outcomes is: 2 × 2 × 2 = 8
There is 1 favourable outcome for all boys.
1
∴ P(all boys) =
8
= 1 − P (all boys)
1
∴ P(at least one girl) = 1 − 8
7
=
8

9. They are not complementary events because if one even

number and one odd number are obtained, neither events
occur.

9
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

10. No, because getting a ‘2’ is a favourable outcome to both 3

events of ‘getting a prime number’ and ‘getting an even =
∴ P(sum less than 4) 36
number’.
1
=
Level 2 12
11. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36 (b) There are 4 favourable outcomes for sum equals 5:
There are 10 favourable outcomes for sum less than 6: (1, 4), (4, 1), (2, 3) and (3, 2)
sum equals 2: (1, 1) 4
=
sum equals 3: (1, 2), (2, 1) ∴ P(sum equals 5) 36
sum equals 4: (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1) 1
sum equals 5: (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1) =
9
10 = 1 − P (sum equals 5)
=
∴ P(sum less than 6) 36 1
5 ∴ P(sum not equals 5) = 1 − 9
=
18 8
=
9
= 1 − P( black or white)
(c) There are 8 favourable outcomes:
= 1 − [ P (black) + P ( white)]
sum equals 4: (1, 3), (2, 2), (3, 1)
12. P(neither black nor white) = 1 −  4 + 1  sum equals 5: (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)
 15 6  sum equals 12: (6, 6)
17 8
= =
30 P(sum equals 4 or 5 or 12) 36
2
=
= 1 − P( team A wins or draws) 9
= 1 − [ P ( team A wins) + P(draws)]
120°
13. P(team B wins) = 1 −  3 + 1  P (MTR ) =
16. (a) 360°
8 4
1
3 =
= 3
8
20°
P ( taxi) =
14. (a) P(either team A or team B wins) (b) 360°
= P ( team A wins) + P( team B wins) 1
=
1 1 18
= +
3 4 P ( MTR or taxi) = P( MTR ) + P( taxi)
7 1 1
= = +
12 (c) 3 18
(b) P(neither of the teams win) 7
=
= 1 − P(either team A or team B wins) 18
7 (d) Angle subtended by the sector ‘bus’
= 1−
12 = 360° − 120° − 20° − 14° − 33° − 13°
5
= = 160°
12 = 1 − P( bus)
160°
15. By the counting principle, the total number of possible = 1−
360°
outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36 ∴ P(not by bus) 200
(a) There are 3 favourable outcomes for sum less than 4: =
360
sum equals 2: (1, 1)
sum equals 3: (1, 2), (2, 1) 5
=
9

10
 15 More about Probability

Exercise 15C (p. 25) (b) P(a CD of male singer and a CD of female singer)
= P(CD of male singer from 1st box and CD of
Level 1 = female singer from 2nd box or CD of female singer
= P (1st one is blue) × P (2nd one is blue) = from 1st box and CD of male singer from 2nd box)
4 3 = P(CD of male singer from 1st box and CD of
1. P(both blue) = 8 × 9 = female singer from 2nd box) + P(CD of female
= singer from 1st box and CD of male singer from
1 = 2nd box)
=
6 = P(CD of male singer from 1st box) × P(CD of
= female singer from 2nd box) + P(CD of female
2. P(uses broadband service and has 4 members) = singer from 1st box) × P(CD of male singer from
= P (uses broadband service) × P (has 4 members) = 2nd box)
= 0.8 × 0.6 3 3 5 2
= × + ×
= 0.48 8 5 8 5
19
=
3. (a) P(both cards are spade) 40
= P (1st card is spade) × P (2nd card is spade)
13 13 6. (a) P(both solve the problem)
= ×
52 52 = P(Terrence solves the problem) × P(Sara solves the
1 = problem)
= 2 3
16 = ×
3 4
(b) P(one is ace and one is king)
1
= P(1st card is ace and 2nd card is king or =
= 1st card is king and 2nd card is ace) 2
= P(1st card is ace and 2nd card is king) + (b) P(exactly one of them solves the problem)
= P(1st card is king and 2nd card is ace) = P(Terrence solves the problem and Sara cannot or
= P(1st card is ace) × P(2nd card is king) + = Sara solves the problem and Terrence cannot)
= P(1st card is king) × P(2nd card is ace) = P(Terrence solves the problem and Sara cannot) +
4 4 4 4 = P(Sara solves the problem and Terrence cannot)
= × + × = P(Terrence solves the problem) × P(Sara cannot
52 52 52 52
2 = solve the problem) + P(Terrence cannot solve the
= = problem) × P(Sara solves the problem)
169
2  3  2 3
= × 1 −  + 1 −  ×
4. (a) P(product is odd) 3  4  3 4
= P (1st number is odd) × P( 2nd number is odd) 5
=
3 3 12
= ×
6 6
1 Level 2
=
4 7. Let S stand for a worker suffers from occupational illness
and N stand for a worker does not suffer from
= 1 − P (product is odd )
occupational illness.
1
(b) P(product is even) = 1 − 4 P(exactly two of the three workers suffer from the illness)
= P(SSN or SNS or NSS)
3 = P(SSN) + P(SNS) + P(NSS)
=
4 = 0.15 × 0.15 × (1 – 0.15) + 0.15 × (1 – 0.15) × 0.15 +
= (1 – 0.15) × 0.15 × 0.15
5. (a) P(2CDs of male singers) = 0.057 375
= P(CD of male singer from 1st box) ×
= P(CD of male singer from 2nd box)
3 2
= ×
3+5 2+3
3
=
20

11
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

8. P(two letters drawn are the same)

= P ( HH or EE or II or SS) 12. Let M stand for a shot is made and N stand for a shot is
= P ( HH) + P (EE ) + P ( II) + P (SS) not made.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 = P ( MMMM )
= × + × + × + ×
11 7 11 7 11 7 11 7 2 2 2 2
4 (a) P(four shots in four trials) = 5 × 5 × 5 × 5
=
77 16
=
625
9. Let S stand for a son and D stand for a daughter. (b) P(more than 2 shots out of 4 trials)
P(both children are of the same sex) = P (3 shots out of 4 trials or 4 shots out of 4 trials)
= P (SS or DD) = P (3 shots out of 4 trials) + P ( 4 shots out of
= P (SS) + P (DD) 4 trials)
3 2 3 4 = P ( MMMN or MMNM or MNMM or
= × + ×
3+3 2+ 4 3+3 2+ 4
16
1 NMMM) +
= 625
2
= P ( MMMN) + P ( MMNM) + P (MNMM ) +
16
10. (a) P(no one hits the target) P ( NMMM) +
= P(Alan, Anthony and Scarlet do not hit the target) 625
= P(Alan not hit the target) × P(Anthony not hit the 2 2 2  2 2 2  2
= × × × 1 −  + × × 1 − ×
= target) × P(Scarlet not hit the target) 5 5 5  5 5 5  5
 1  1  1 2 2  2 2 2  2
= 1 −  × 1 −  × 1 −  + × 1 −  × × + 1 −  ×
 2  3  4 5 5  5 5 5  5
1 2 2 2 16
= × × +
4 5 5 5 625
= 1 − P (no one hits the target ) 112
=
1 625
(b) P(the target is hit) = 1 − 4
3 13. (a) P(B)
= = P(upper branch and lower branch and upper
4
= branch)
= P(upper branch) × P(lower branch) × P(upper
11. Let C stand for a correct answer and W stand for a wrong = branch)
answer. 1 1 1
= × ×
= P (CCCC) 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1
(a) P(all answers correct) = 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 =
8
1
=
256 (b) P(C or D)
(b) P(only 3 answers correct) = P(C) + P(D)
= P(WCCC or CWCC or CCWC or CCCW) = P(upper branch and lower branch and lower
= P(WCCC) + P(CWCC) + P(CCWC) + P(CCCW) branch) = + P(lower branch and uppest branch)
3 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 = P(upper branch) × P(lower branch) ×
= × × × + × × × + = P(lower branch) + P(lower branch) ×
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
= P(uppest branch)
1 1 3 1 1 1 1 3
× × × + × × × 1 1 1 1 1
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 = × × + ×
2 2 2 2 3
3
= 7
64 =
24

12
 15 More about Probability

(b) Total number of students wear glasses = 10 + 15

14. (a) P(all the students bring the textbook) = 25
= P(1st, 2nd, … , 40th students bring the textbook)
10
= P(1st student brings) × P(2nd student brings) × … =
= × P(40th student brings) P(boy | wear glasses) 25
2
= [1 – P(1st student forgets to bring)] × [1 – P(2nd =
= student forgets to bring)] × … × [1 – P(40th student 5
= forgets to bring)]
= (1 − 0.01) × (1 − 0.01) × ... × (1 − 0.01) 4. (a) Total number of tapes = 42 + 8
= 0.99 40
= 50
= 0.6690 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.) P(first tape is used while the second one is new)
= P(first tape is used) × P(second tape is new | first
(b) P(at least one student forgets to bring the textbook)
= tape is used)
= 1 − P(all the students bring the textbook )
8 42
= 1 − 0.6690 = ×
50 49
= 0.3310 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.) 24
=
175

Exercise 15D (p. 33) (b) P(both of them are used)

= P(first tape is used and second tape is used)
Level 1 = P(first tape is used) × P(second tape is used | first
1. There are 3 possible outcomes for an odd number: 1, 3 and = tape is used)
5 8 7
= ×
Among the possible outcomes, only 3 and 5 are favourable 50 49
outcomes. 4
2 =
175
∴ P(prime number | odd number) = 3

5. (a) P(first piece is a corner piece while the second is not)

2. (a) There are 12 possible outcomes for a face card. = P(first piece is a corner piece) × P(second piece is
Among the possible outcomes, only the jack, queen = not a corner piece | first piece is a corner piece)
and king of spades are favourable outcomes. 4 196
= ×
3 200 199
=
∴ P(spade | face card) 12 98
=
1 4975
=
4
(b) P(both are corner pieces)
= P(1st piece is a corner piece and 2nd piece is a
(b) There are 39 possible outcomes for not a club. = corner piece)
Among the possible outcomes, only 13 cards are = P(1st piece is a corner piece) × P(2nd piece is a
favourable outcomes. = corner piece | 1st piece is a corner piece)
13 4 3
= = ×
∴ P(spade | not a club) 39 200 199
1 3
= =
3 9950

3. (a) Total number of girls = 15 + 9 6. (a) P(all boys)

= 24 = P(1st boy and 2nd boy and 3rd boy)
= P(1st boy) × P(2nd boy | 1st boy) ×
15 = P(3rd boy | 1st and 2nd boy)
=
P(wear glasses | girl) 24 22 21 20
5 = × ×
= 42 41 40
8 11
=
82

13
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) P(all are of the same sex) 10. Let G denote a green form and W denote a white form.
= P(all boys or all girls)
= P(all boys) + P(all girls) Total number of forms = 50 + 30
= 80
11
= + P (1st girl) × P( 2nd girl | 1st girl) × (a) P(three forms are of the same colour)
82
= P(GGG or WWW)
P (3rd girl | 1st and 2nd girl)
= P(GGG) + P(WWW)
11 20 19 18 = P(1st G) × P(2nd G | 1st G) × P(3rd G | 1st and
= + × ×
82 42 41 40 = 2nd G) + P(1st W) × P(2nd W | 1st W) ×
67 = P(3rd W | 1st and 2nd W)
=
287 50 49 48 30 29 28
= × × + × ×
80 79 78 80 79 78
7. (a) ∵ The first ball drawn is a multiple of 5. 91
=
316
∴ Only 29 balls are left after the first draw.
Only 4 balls are left that is a multiple of 7.
∴ P(2nd ball is a multiple of 7 | 1st ball is a (b) ∵ There are only two colours of forms.
4 ∴ P(three forms are of different colours) = 0
multiple of 5) = 29

(b) ∵ The first ball drawn is a multiple of 5. 11. (a) Since there is only 1 key can open the door.
1
∴ Only 29 balls are left after the first draw. ∴ P(1st trial) = 3
Only 5 balls are left that is a multiple of 5.
∴ P(2nd ball is a multiple of 5 | 1st ball is a (b) P(second trial)
5 = P (1st trial fails) × P (2nd trial | 1st trial fails)
multiple of 5) = 29 2 1
= ×
3 2
Level 2 1
=
8. P(both even) 3
= P(1st card is even and 2nd card is even)
(c) P(last trial)
= P(1st card is even) × P(2nd card is even | 1st card is even)
5 4 = P(1st trial fails) × P(2nd trial fails | 1st trial fails) ×
= ×
10 9 = P(last trial | 1st and 2nd trials fail)
2 2 1 1
= = × ×
9 3 2 1
1
=
3
9. Let R denote a red ball and Y denote a yellow ball.
Total number of balls = 14 + 10 12. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
= 24
outcomes is: 6 × 6 = 36
= P (R ) × P( Y | R )
(a) There are 5 favourable outcomes for the sum of the
14 10 numbers is 6: (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2) and (5, 1)
(a) P(RY) = 24 × 23 5
35 ∴ P(sum of the numbers is 6) = 36
=
138
(b) There are 3 odd numbers on a die. By the counting
= P (RR or YY) principle, the total number of favourable outcomes is:
3× 3 = 9
= P (RR ) + P( YY)
9
= P (R ) × P( R | R ) + P (Y ) × P (Y | Y ) =
(b) P(same colour) 14 13 10 9 ∴ P(both odd) 36
= × + × 1
24 23 24 23 =
4
34
=
69

14
 15 More about Probability

(c) Among the 9 possible outcomes that both numbers (ii) P(false positive result)
are odd, only 3 of them are favourable outcomes: = P(no AIDS and positive result)
(1, 5), (3, 3) and (5, 1) = P(no AIDS) × P(positive result)
3 = (1 – 0.1%) × 0.07
=
∴ P(sum is 6 | both are odd) 9 = 6.993%
1
= (b) Percent of blood sample shows positive result
3
= 0.098% + 6.993%
= 7.091%
13. (a) P(smoker)
= P(male and smoker or female and smoker) Percent of blood sample that is false positive
= P(male and smoker) + P(female and smoker) = 6.993%
= P(male) × P(smoker | male) + ∴ P(false positive | positive result)
= P(female) × P(smoker | female) 6.993%
=
= 0.515 × 0.13 + (1 − 0.515) × 0.07 7.091%
= 0.1009 = 0.9862 (cor. to 4 sig. fig.)

= 1 − P (smoker) (c) Any reasonable answers.

(b) P(non-smoker) = 1 − 0.1009
= 0.8991
Revision Exercise 15 (p. 37)

14. Let R denote a red ball, G denote a green ball and W Level 1
denote a white ball. 1. (a) There are 8 favourable outcomes: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13,
17 and 19
Total number of balls = 5 + 3 + 2 8
= 10 =
∴ P(prime) 20
(a) P(one red and one white) 2
= P(RW or WR) =
= P(RW) + P(WR) 5
= P(R) × P(W | R) + P(W) × P(R | W) (b) There are 5 favourable outcomes: 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20
5 2 2 5 5
= × + × =
10 9 10 9
∴ P(multiple of 4) 20
2 1
= =
9 4
(b) P(same colour) (c) P(prime or multiple of 4)
= P(RR or GG or WW) = P (prime) + P( multiple of 4)
= P(RR) + P(GG) + P(WW)
= P(R) × P(R | R) + P(G) × P(G | G) + 2 1
= +
= P(W) × P(W | W) 5 4
5 4 3 2 2 1 13
= × + × + × =
10 9 10 9 10 9 20
14
=
45 2. Total number of people = 88 + 113 + 78 + 21
= 300
15. (a) (i) P(true positive result) 78
= P(AIDS and positive result) =
(a) P(disagree) 300
= P(AIDS) × P(positive result) 13
= 0.1% × 0.98 =
50
= 0.098%

15
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) P(‘strongly agree’ or ‘agree’) (b) P(sum is even)

= P(‘strongly agree’) + P(‘agree’) = P(both even or both odd)
88 113 = P(both even) + P(both odd)
= +
300 300 = P(even) × P(even) + P(odd) × P(odd)
67 5 5 5 5
= = × + ×
100 10 10 10 10
1
=
2
3. Total number of possible outcomes = 52 − 6
= 46
6. (a) P(both defective)
(a) ∵ All the jack of black suits are removed.
= P(defective from A) × P(defective from B)
∴ P(a jack of black suits) = 0 16 25
= ×
(b) There are 2 favourable outcomes: ace of hearts and 800 1000
ace of diamonds 1
=
2 2000
=
∴ P(an ace of red suits) 46
(b) P(both are not defective)
1
= = P(not defective from A) × P(not defective from B)
23
800 − 16 1000 − 25
= ×
(c) There are 10 favourable outcomes: A, 2, 3, …, 10 of 800 1000
clubs 1911
=
10 2000
=
∴ P(a club) 46
5 7. Let C denote a correct answer and W denote a wrong
=
23 answer.
(a) P(one answer wrong)
4. P(both are members) = P (CCW or CWC or WCC)
= P(1st is a member and 2nd is a member)
= P (CCW) + P (CWC) + P ( WCC)
= P(1st is a member) × P(2nd is a member |
= 1st is a member) 2 2  2 2  2 2
= × × 1 −  + × 1 −  × +
80 79 3 3  3 3  3 3
= ×
1200 1199  2 2 2
1 −  × ×
79  3 3 3
=
17 985 4
=
9

5. (a) P(sum is even) (b) P(all answers wrong)

= P(1st is even and 2nd is even or 1st is odd and = P ( WWW )
= 2nd is odd)
 2  2  2
= P(1st is even and 2nd is even) + = 1 −  × 1 −  × 1 − 
= P(1st is odd and 2nd is odd)  3  3  3
= P(1st is even) × P(2nd is even | 1st is even) + 1
=
= P(1st is odd) × P(2nd is odd | 1st is odd) 27
5 4 5 4
= × + × (c) P(at least one answer correct)
10 9 10 9
= 1 − P(all answers wrong)
4
= 1
9 = 1−
27
26
=
27

16
 15 More about Probability

8. (a) P(both late)

= P(Vincent late) × P(Andrew late) 11. For the 1st time the rumour spreads, Alfred can choose
1 1 any 40 classmates out of the 40 possible classmates.
= ×
3 4 For the 2nd to the 10th times the rumour spreads, the
1 student can choose any 39 classmates (excluding Alfred)
= out of the 40 possible classmates.
12
Since every time the rumour spreads are independent
(b) P(at least one of them arrives punctually) events.
= 1 – P(both late) ∴ P(still has not returned to Alfred in 10 times)
1 9
= 1− 40  39 
12 = × 
40  40 
11
= = 0.796 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)
12

(c) P(only one of them arrives punctually) 12. F = a head is obtained when a coin is tossed or
= P(Vincent late and Andrew punctual or F = a queen is drawn from a deck of 52 cards
= Vincent punctual and Andrew late) (or any other reasonable answers)
= P(Vincent late and Andrew punctual) +
= P(Vincent punctual and Andrew late) 13. G = the number obtained is a prime number
= P(Vincent late) × P(Andrew punctual) + G = the number obtained is greater than 3
= P(Vincent punctual) × P(Andrew late) (or any other reasonable answers)
1  1  1 1
= × 1 −  + 1 −  × Level 2
3  4  3 4
14. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
5
= outcomes: 6 × 6 = 36
12
(a) There are 6 favourable outcomes: (1, 1), (2, 1), (1, 2),
(2, 2), (1, 3) and (3, 1)
9. Total number of batteries = 2 + 4 6
=
=6 36
∴ P(less than 5)
(a) P(1st is used and 2nd is new) 1
=
= P (1st is used) × P (2nd is new | 1st is used) 6
2 4
= × (b) There are 5 favourable outcomes: (2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5),
6 5
(5, 3) and (4, 4)
4
= 5
15 ∴ P(equal to 8) = 36

(b) P(both used) (c) P(less than 5 or equal to 8)

= P (1st is used) × P( 2nd is used | 1st is used) = P (less than 5) + P (equal to 8)
2 1 1 5
= × = +
6 5 6 36
1 11
= =
15 36

10. Let H stand for a head and T stand for a tail. 15. (a) P(all of them fail)
There are 7 possible outcomes for at least one head: = P ( Ivy fails) × P (Grace fails) × P( Winky fails)
HTT, THT, TTH, HHT, HTH, THH and HHH
 1  2  5
Among the possible outcomes, there are 3 favourable = 1 −  × 1 −  ×  1 − 
 2  5  8
outcomes: HHT, HTH and THH
3 9
=
∴ P(exactly two heads | at least one head) = 7 80

17
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(b) P(at least one of them passes) (b) P(same colour)

= 1 − P(all of them fail) = P(RR or WW or BB)
9 = P(RR) + P(WW) + P(BB)
= 1− = P(R) + P(R | R) + P(W) × P(W | W) +
80
= P(B) × P(B | B)
71
= 6 5 4 3 2 1
80 = × + × + ×
12 11 12 11 12 11
1
16. (a) P(sum of 2) = P(‘1’ and ‘1’) =
3
= P(‘1’) × P(‘1’)
308 308
= × 18. Let W denote a white marble and B denote a black marble.
2000 2000
= 0.0237 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.) Total number of marbles = 3 + 2
=5
(b) Number of times of not getting a ‘4’ = 2000 − 458 2
= 1542 (a) P(first trial) = 5
P(at least one ‘4’)
= 1 – P(no ‘4’ in two throws) = P ( WB)
= 1 – P(no ‘4’) × P(no ‘4’)
= P ( W ) × P (B | W )
1542 1542
= 1− × (b) P(second trial) = 3 × 2
2000 2000
5 4
= 0.406 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)
3
=
(c) P(a sum of 10 or more) 10
= P(‘4’ and ‘6’ or ‘6’ and ‘4’ or ‘5’ and ‘5’ or
= ‘5’ and ‘6’ or ‘6’ and ‘5’ or ‘6’ and ‘6’) (c) P(fourth trial)
= P(‘4’ and ‘6’) + P(‘6’ and ‘4’ ) + P(‘5’ and ‘5’ ) + = P(WWWB)
= P(‘5’ and ‘6’) + P(‘6’ and ‘5’) + P(‘6’ and ‘6’) = P(W) × P(W | 1st W) × P(W | 1st and 2nd W) ×
458 312 312 458 206 206 = P(B | 1st, 2nd and 3rd W)
= × + × + × +
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 3 2 1 2
= × × ×
206 312 312 206 312 312 5 4 3 2
× + × + ×
2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 1
=
= 0.139 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.) 10

17. Let R denote a red sock, W denote a white sock and B 19. (a) P(defective)
denote a black sock. = P(defective from box A or defective from box B)
= P(defective from box A) + P(defective from box B)
Total number of socks = 6 + 4 + 2 = P(box A) × P(defective | box A) +
= 12
= P(box B) × P(defective | box B)
(a) P(one red and one black) 1 2 1 6
= P (RB or BR) = × + ×
2 8 2 14
= P (RB) + P (BR ) 19
=
= P (R ) × P (B | R ) + P ( B) × P (R | B) 56
6 2 2 6
= × + ×
12 11 12 11 (b) Total number of defective bulbs = 2 + 6
2 =8
=
11 6
=
∴ P(box B | defective) 8
3
=
4

18
 15 More about Probability

20. P(defective) (b) By using geometric sequence, we have

= P(defective from machine A or 1
= defective from machine B) 1 8 1
= P(defective from machine A) + first term = , common ratio = =
= P(defective from machine B) 2 1 4
= P(machine A) × P(defective | machine A) + 2
= P(machine B) × P(defective | machine B) 11
n −1

= 0.6 × 0.02 + 0.4 × 0.04 =  

∴ P(Katherine wins in her nth trial) 24
= 0.028 2 n −1
1
= 
2
60°
=
21. (a) P(land on sector POQ) 360 ° (c) P(Katherine wins the game)
1 = P(wins in her 1st trial or wins in her 2nd trial or …
= = or wins in her nth trial or …)
6
= P(wins in her 1st trial) + P(wins in her 2nd trial) +
∠QOR = 60° × 1.5 = … + P(wins in her nth trial) + …
(b) (i) 2 n −1
= 90° 1 1 1
= + + ... +   + ...
2 8 2
60° + 90°
= 1
(ii) P(land on sector POR) 360°
= 2
5
= 1
12 1−
4
(c) P(one hits sector POQ and one hits sector QOR) 2
=
= P(1st hits sector POQ and 2nd hits sector QOR or 3
= 1st hits sector QOR and 2nd hits sector POQ)
= P(1st hits sector POQ and 2nd hits sector QOR) +
23. (a) P(head appears)
= P(1st hits sector QOR and 2nd hits sector POQ)
= P(normal coin and head or
60° 90° 90° 60°
= × + × = two-headed coin and head)
360° 360° 360° 360° = P(normal coin and head) +
1 = P(two-headed coin and head)
=
12 2 1 1 2
= × + ×
3 2 3 2
22. Let H denote a head and T denote a tail. 2
=
= P ( H) 3
(a) (i) P(wins in her 1st trial) 1
= (b) By using a tree diagram, we have:
2 head
normal coin
= P (TTH )
tail
1 1 1
(ii) P(wins in her 2nd trial) = 2 × 2 × 2 head
normal coin
1 tail
=
8
head
= P (TTTTH ) two-headed coin
1 1 1 1 1 head
(iii) P(wins in her 3rd trial) = 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 From the tree diagram, there are 4 possible outcomes.
1 Among the possible outcomes, only 2 are favourable
= outcomes.
32
2
=
∴ P(two-headed coin | head) 4
1
=
2

19
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

(c) (i) There are 2 favourable outcomes of getting two

heads in two trials: 3. Answer: D
(1) normal coin and head and head; P(the problem is solved)
(2) two-headed coin and head and head = 1 – P(Paul and Mary cannot solve the problem)
For (1), = 1 – P(Paul cannot solve the problem) ×
P(normal coin and head and head) = P(Mary cannot solve the problem)
2 1 1  2  5
= × × = 1 −  1 −  × 1 − 
3 2 2  5  6
1
= 9
6 =
10
For (2),
P(two-headed coin and head and head)
4. Answer: D
1 2 2
= × × Let C denote a correct answer and W denote a wrong
3 2 2
answer.
1
= P(only one question is correct)
3
∴ P(two heads in two trials) = P(CWW or WCW or WWC)
= P(normal coin and head and head) + = P(CWW) + P(WCW) + P(WWC)
= P(two-headed coin and head and head) 1  1  1  1
1 1 = × 1 −  × 1 −  + 1 −  ×
= + 4  4  4  4
6 3
1  1  1  1 1
1 × 1 −  + 1 −  × 1 −  ×
= 4  4  4  4 4
2
27
(ii) P(two tails in two trials) =
64
= P(normal coin and tail and another normal
= coin and tail)
= P(normal coin) × P(tail) × 5. Answer: B
= P(another normal coin | normal coin) × P(tail) Let B denote a son and G denote a daughter.
2 1 1 1 By using a tree diagram, we have:
= × × ×
3 2 2 2
1 First child Second child Outcomes
= B BB
12
B
G BG
B GB
Multiple Choice Questions (p. 41) G
G GG
1. Answer: B
There are 3 favourable outcomes: 2, 5 and 17 From the tree diagram, there are 3 possible outcomes to
3 have a son.
=
∴ P(prime number) 6 Among the possible outcomes, only 1 is a favourable
1 outcome.
=
2 1
∴ P(two sons | has a son) = 3

2. Answer: A
P(both are late) 6. Answer: B
= P ( John is late) × P (Mary is late) Total number of rotten oranges = 20 + 10
= 0.4 × 0.3 = 30
= 0.12 20
=
∴ P(comes from box A | rotten orange) 30
2
=
3

20
 15 More about Probability

7. Answer: D 12. Answer: B

P(at least one dart hits the target) Let B denote a boy and G denote a girl.
= 1 – P(two darts do not hit the target)
= 1 – P(1st dart does not hit the target) × Total number of students in the class = 27 + 13
= 40
= P(2nd dart does not hit the target)
 3  3 P(same sex)
= 1 −  1 −  × 1 −  = P(BB or GG)
 5  5 = P(BB) + P(GG)
21 = P(B) × P(B | B) + P(G) × P(G | G)
=
25 27 26 13 12
= × + ×
40 39 40 39
8. Answer: C 11
=
P(at least one of them is absent) 20
= 1 – P(all present)
= 1 – P(Kitty presents) × P(Alice presents) × 13. Answer: A
= P(Alan presents)
P(open in at least 3 trials)
 1  1  1 = 1 – P(open in less than 3 trials)
= 1 −  1 −  ×  1 −  × 1 − 
 3  3  3 = 1 – P(open in the 1st trial or 2nd trial)
19 = 1 – [P(open in the 1st trial) + P(open in the 2nd trial)]
=
27 2
= 1 −  + P (fail in the 1st trial) × P (open in the 2nd trial |
10
9. Answer: A fail in the 1st trial)]
There are 3 possible seats for Tracy after Lily takes a seat.  2 8 2
= 1−  + × 
Among the possible seats, 2 seats are next to Lily.  10 10 9 
2 17
∴ P(Tracy sits next to Lily) = 3 = 1−
45
28
=
10. Answer: B 45
Let W denote a white chopstick and B denote a black
chopstick.
P(same colour) HKMO (p. 43)
= P(WW or BB)
1. P(all odd)
= P(WW) + P(BB)
= P(1st is odd and 2nd is odd and 3rd is odd)
= P(W) × P(W | W) + P(B) × P(B | B)
= P(1st is odd) × P(2nd is odd | 1st is odd) × P(3rd is odd |
2 1 2 1 = 1st and 2nd are odd)
= × + ×
4 3 4 3 5 4 3
1 = × ×
= 9 8 7
3 5
=
42
11. Answer: D
P(greater than or equal to 5) 2. By the counting principle, the total number of possible
= 1 – P(less than 5) outcomes is: 10 × 10 = 100
= 1 – P((1, 2) or (1, 3) or (2, 1) or (3, 1))
= 1 – [P(1, 2) + P(1, 3) + P(2, 1) + P(3, 1)]
= 1 – [P(1) × P(2 | 1) + P(1) × P(3 | 1) + P(2) × P(1 | 2) + White ball Favourable black Number of
drawn ball drawn favourable
= P(3) × P(1 | 3)]
outcomes
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
= 1−  × + × + × + ×  10 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6, 7, 8, 9 9
 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3
9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 8
2
= 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 7
3

21
Certificate Mathematics in Action Full Solutions 5B

7 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 6
6 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 5
5 1, 2, 3, 4 4
4 1, 2, 3 3
3 1, 2 2
2 1 1
1 – 0
Total 45

45
=
∴ P(white ball > black ball) 100
9
=
20

22