?????

South America MCS, mean

environmental conditions by a
idealized simulation ????????
 The lack of radar observations on South America turns the
satellite data a primarily data source to classification an
characterization of mid-latitude mesoscale storms in that region.
The MCS observed have a characteristic behavior in what
the new parts of storm develops to N-NW in a discrete evolution(use
my master pictures), most part of this cases live for more than 24h
so called long live MCS(Maddox), and are characterized by a large
convective areas more that 105km2.
Using GOES satellite images(1/2h) between summer 2005
and 2006 were 94 meso-alpha convective systems(Orlanski) which
show a similar behavior to MCS and PECS (shape and time life).
From this case were selected 11 case with 2 clear and consistent
characteristic. In a pre- analyze using NCEP reanalises, was
observed an 850mb low level jet streak (more than 10m/s) and West
Andes trough and a East Andes ridge, the Jet streak was localized
at the down wave part of this ridge.
All MCS(or PECS???) were developed in the upstream left
side of jet streak (favorable to convection, Uccellini&Johnson, 1979),
the LLJ was quasi-perpendicular to upper level jet at initial time and
quasi-parallel at the dissipation.
MCS Evolution Model
 Satellite
Characteristics The mean sizes
Huge MCS
 I need to do a table Maddox like showing the First, Initial, Mature, Dissipatiol
More than 24h life
First Strorm Position = 1,3x104 km2(-38oC),median=2616km2
Maximum= 2.86x105km2(-45oC) ,median=270000km2
End(dissipation)=1.38x105km2(-38oC) ,median=98000km2
at the fist strom position there is essential is more important than Initial position to Simulate and
Predict.
Machado, shows the storm tracking doesn’t shows sensibility to temperatures above -40oC.
Zipser…others etc, support (they don’t disagree with) the temperature threshold I’m using, actually
they shows that temperatures above -30oC well represents deep convection,
Guesds and Sival Dias, Velasco,etc sugest different temperatures thresholds in their SA
studies(around -40oC).
Machado, Siqueira… and others suggest automatics storm track systems, but in their studies in the
SA warm season they can’t find systems within more 24h duration and 300km radius, and there is
some comments about problems to track Huge MCS using automatics track systems, and the
contribution is very “statistical”.

So it support my semi-automatic methodology, and my methodology it give me more confidence

about my cases. This methodology can not to be applied operationally due the time cost, but the
MCS selection by hand assegura that the system in observation will not to be mixed with tropical
convection.
 Strom Geometric Center
Condiction

If A50>=(A45)/4 than
StormCenter = GeometricCenter of A50(x,y)
Else
StormCenter= GeometricCenter of A45(x,y)
Endif
A special scheme was set up to well represent the mean atmospheric conditions of
these cases. Explain the process and show a picture with the grid scheme.

This mean(gridmovel) atmospheric conditions were used as boundary conditions to

do a idealized simulation utilizing WRF. This simulation was successful well
representing the time spacing oscilation of MCS observed by satellite(use my
master results as reference 49 cases). how to do a graphic with this quasi-periodic
oscilation.

In the pre-storm conditions this setup reproduces a strong moisture (more then
400kg/ms) flux from the Amazon, a high pressure system at east SA coast helps
inducing moisture convergence from Pantanal (sedimentar basin, flooded area ,
2x105km2 )and moisture accumulation in the central area of La Plata Basin
(reproduce the low clouds pattern).

The MCS showed a N-NW discrete evolution(individual storms), close to the

maximum, the storm merged the convective cells as was observed by satellite
imagery.

Simulations comparison, what methodology is better?

Another test with a composite like “climatology” doesn’ reproduce the special an
temporal patterns observed by satellite images.
Having a cold front like behavior, and a broad area of continuous precipitation. The
cloud mix ratio and the precipitation show a unrealistic convective and precipitation
are with a radius~107km2.
Mean Grid centralized in the first
storm position

Climatological Mean
 Initial Time and Position
LLJ CASES initial LLJ
CASE INIT.TIME
1 50908 02:45
2 50929 11:39
3 51003 06:40
4 51104 15:39
5 51122 09:39
6 51202 02:40
7 60111 22:09
8 60114 13:39
9 60424 23:45
10 60620 10:39
11 60814 01:10

Ave 10:56

INITIAL Time

7 NOLLJ
6 LLJ
Number of Cases

5 Total
4
3
2
1
0
6 12 18 24

3 9 15 21
Time(GMT)
Local Time
LLJ CASES
max
CASE INIT.TIME
1 50908 02:45
2 50929 11:39
3 51003 06:40
4 51104 15:39
5 51122 09:39
6 51202 02:40
7 60111 22:09
8 60114 13:39
9 60424 23:45
10 60620 10:39
11 60814 01:10

Ave 10:56

MAX Time

7 NOLLJ
6 LLJ
Number of Cases

5 Total
4
3
2
1
0
6 12 18 24

3 9 15 21
Time(GMT)
Local Time
LLJ CASES
end
CASE INIT.TIME
1 50908 02:45
2 50929 11:39
3 51003 06:40
4 51104 15:39
5 51122 09:39
6 51202 02:40
7 60111 22:09
8 60114 13:39
9 60424 23:45
10 60620 10:39
11 60814 01:10

Ave 10:56

End Time

7 NOLLJ
LLJ
6
Total
5
4
3
2
1
0
6 12 18 24

3 9 15 21
Number of Cases
Total Precip. Mean “grid Total Precip. Mean fix grid
movel”
 Atmospheric Conditions Initiation
“Cloud Vapor” mixratio flux
Mean centrated

The MCS showed a N-NW discrete evolution (individual storms), close to the maximum, the storm merged
the convective cells as was observed by satellite imagery. ???Low Clouds Pattern???
Atmospheric Conditions Initiation
“Cloud Vapor” mixratio flux
“Climatological Mean”
Show that Boundary conditions
centralized around the First Storm Initial
Position has some advantage in terms of well
representation of storm structure and
behavior reproduction.

Use U.S. MCS+PECS papers and

SALLJEX to Validate and
compare the Simulation

Show the initial atmospheric

patterns to have a MCS
Draw a picture of this patterns
 Moisture sources
Region 2 1 2
In the pre-storm conditions this setup reproduces a strong
moisture( more then 400kg/ms) flux from the Amazon(1), a high
pressure system at east SA coast helps inducing moisture
convergence from Pantanal (1) ( sedimentar basin, flooded area ,
2x105km2 )and moisture accumulation in the central area of La
Plata Basin (reproduce the low clouds pattern).
3

Which Region contribute

more to moisture???
2 study Surface interactions
Land cover and Topography
Low level flow interactions