2 - 2022 - June - ICWG - ERDMP - GSB - AAR - Day 1 - Session 2 - Risk Analysis-R1

Speakers:
Mr. AA
Raichur
Mr. GS Baveja
2022_June_ICWG_ERDMP_GSB_AAR_Mas
01/02/2024 1
ter
Day-1 Session-2
Why need for Sire-specific
plan (Risk Analysis?)
Speakers:
Mr GS BAVEJA, Former Corporate HSSE HEAD, BPCL
01/02/2024 2022_June_ICWG_ERDMP_GSB_AAR_Master 2
Broad Scope of Disaster Management Plan
•Anticipation—
•Warning,
•Process,
•Remote Sensing,
•Predictions, Environmental
•Prevention—
•Elementary Defects,
•Modification of behavioral Patterns in respect of
•Social,
•Industrial,
•Organizational and
•Individual or personal .
Disaster occurs when hazards meet
vulnerability
Risk = Hazards
Hazard +
Lack of –
vulnerability
•Local institutes
Fragile physical
•Training
environment Earthquake
•Appropriate
•Dangerous High winds
skills NOT PREVENTED
locations Hurricane
•Local investment
•Unprotected Cyclone
•Local market
Limited buildings & Typhoon
•Media freedom
Access to -
• Power •Ethical Progression of vulnerability
infrastructure Flood
Volcanic -
• Structure standards in
Fragile local - eruptions
public life
economy Landslides
• Resources •Livelihoods at risk Drought
Macro forces-
Root causes
Ideologies-
•Rapid population Dynamic pressures
•Low income levels
Unsafe conditions
Virus
Bacteria
• Political - Vulnerable society Pests
growth
•Special groups at Fire
•Rapid
system risk Chemicals
• Economic - urbanization
Radiation
•Arms
system Public actions Armed -
expenditure
•Lack of conflicts
•Debt
preparedness
repayments
•Endemic disease
•Deforestation
•Decline in soil
productivity
Disaster Managing Policy & Planning
The body of policy and administrative decisions
and operational activities that pertain to various
stages of a disaster at all levels.
An applied science which seeks, by systemic
observation and analysis of disasters, to
improve measures relating to prevention,
emergency response, recovery and
mitigation.
Encompasses all aspects of planning for, and
responding to disasters, including both pre and
post disaster activities.
Pre-Wok to Managing Disaster
A continuous and integrated process of planning,
organizing, coordinating and implementing measures
which are necessary or expedient for-
● Prevention of danger or threat of any disaster.
● Reduction of risk of any disaster or its severity or
consequences.
● Capacity-building.
● Preparedness to deal with any disaster.
● Prompt response to any threatening disaster situation
or disaster.
● Assessing the severity or magnitude of effects of any
disaster.
● Evacuation, rescue and relief.
● Rehabilitation and reconstruction.
RISK ANALYSIS
1 Hazard identification:
The first step towards ERDMP shall be to identify potential
on-site and off-site hazards such as
A. Gas leaks,
B. Spills,
C. Fire,
D. Explosion,
E. Transportation incident,
F. Pipeline ruptures,
G. Equipment failure,
H. Natural calamities, etc.
and the types of damage caused by them.
RISK ANALYSIS – HAZARD IDENTIFICATION
1 Hazard identification to include:
a. Information on toxicological, physical, and chemical
properties of the substances being handled in the format
of Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS – Annexure – I);
b. The identification of potential impact on downwind air
quality or downstream water quality from an incidental
release and possible danger to human, Flora and Fauna
and animal health;
c. Hazards to the installation shall also include Natural
perils such as floods, earthquakes, cyclones or
landslides etc. ;
d. Check points for hazard identification are given at Check
list-1.
RISK ANALYSIS
2 Risk analysis and risk assessment.
The second step of the ERDMP process is to
determine the risk of an incident associated with
each hazard. The procedure to be followed are as
per requirement of various statutes.
NOTE- a risk of 10 per million per year, or 10-5/Year,

effectively means that any person standing at a point
of this level of risk would have a 1 in 100 000 chance of
being fatally injured per year.
RISK ANALYSIS & Risk Assessment
2 Risk analysis and risk assessment: Procedure to follow:
a. Identify potential failures or incident s (including
frequency) ;
b. Calculate the quantity of material that may be released
in each failure, estimate the probability of such
occurrences;
c. Evaluate the consequences of such occurrences based
on scenarios such as most probable and worst case
events;
d. The combination of consequences and probability will
allow the hazards to be ranked in a logical fashion to
indicate the zones of important risk.
RISK ANALYSIS & Risk Assessment
2 Risk analysis and risk assessment: Procedure to follow:
e. Criteria should then be established by which the
quantified level of risk may be considered acceptable to
all parties concerned;
f. After assessing the risk, the "maximum tolerable
criterion" must be defined and above which the risk
shall be regarded as intolerable. Whatever be the
benefit level must be reduced below this level;
g. The risk should also be made "as low as reasonably
practicable" (ALARP) and least impacting the
neighbourhood. While conducting the risk analysis, a
quantitative determination of risk shall be done.
IRPA (Individual Risk per Annum)
. IRPA Fundamental improvements needed.
Intolerable Only to be considered if there are no
alternatives and people are well informed
10-3/yr
Too high, significant effort required to
improve
10-4/yr
The ALARP or Tolerable
High, investigate alternatives
region (Risk is tolerated only)
10-5/yr
Low, consider cost-effective alternatives
Broadly Acceptable region
(no need for detailed working to 10-6/yr
demonstrate ALARP)
Negligible, maintain normal precautions
4. Causes of disasters:
The common causes for the above events
Risk Analysis are tabulated below for reference and the
specific ERDMP should be prepared by the
unit / installation / plant to deal with the
following emergencies.
Man made Natural Calamities Extraneous

• Heavy Leakage  Flood · Riots/Civil Disorder/
• Fire  Earth-Quake Mob Attack
• Explosion  Cyclone • Terrorism
• Failure of Critical  Outbreak of Disease • Sabotage
Control system  Excessive Rains • Bomb Threat
• Design deficiency  Tsunami • War / Hit by missiles
• Unsafe acts • Abduction
• In-adequate • Food Poisoning/
maintenance Water Poisoning
Risk Analysis
4 Consequences:
a. The consequences of an Incident may be
confined within the premises or may spill off-site
triggering cascading effects.
b. The consequences of an Incident are fire
explosion, deflagration, blast waves, fast
spreading flames, BLEVE, UVCE resulting in
direct effects like damage to buildings/property,
burns, fatalities. However, an Incident in the
neighborhood may sometimes cascade into an
on-site emergency. It should be prevented or
managed to avoid major emergency.
Why Site Specific Plans
Basic Requirements of ERDMP:
1. Location Plan of the Installation

indicating siting of the installation at
neighbouring details up to a distance
of 2 kms from the unit / plant /
installation in each direction.
2. Site plan of the unit/ plant/ installation

showing a complete layout of the
installation/ facilities indicating boundary
walls, exit and entry gates and location of
various facilities.
3. Layout of Fire Water Systems and Fire

Fighting Equipment details.
4. Line block diagram of manufacturing

process and Process Flow Diagram
(PFD) of each unit.
5. Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for

all hazardous chemicals stored, handled,
produced and transported in the
installation. (Sample MSDS at Annexure-
1)
6. Internal and External Emergency contact

numbers and addresses of Police, Fire station,
Hospitals, Mutual aid industry, Factory
inspectors, Board, State Pollution Control
Board, Petroleum and Explosive Safety
Organization (PESO), Others like Ambulance
services, Civil Defense, etc.

7. Pipeline route map & details of various
facilities such as
• Initial Starting station facilities
• Sectionalizing Valve (SV),
• Intermediate Pigging (IP) stations,
• Intermediate pumping stations (IPS)
• Receiving Station Facilities
across pipeline route etc.

8. Addresses and Telephone Directory of
Technical Support Services such as:
• Environmental Laboratories,
• Fire fighting chemical suppliers,
• Public and private consultant associated with
emergency handling and
• Aviation Medical Services or Air Ambulance
services, if any.
9. Security threat plan:
A security threat plan is aimed at reducing risk. It
will therefore have at least three objectives, based
on your risk assessment:
• Reducing the level of threat you are
experiencing;
• Reducing your vulnerabilities;
• Improving your capacities.
Metrological Data:
• Weather data provides information about the weather and
climate of a region.
• It tracks patterns and predicts trends.
• Weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions of a
region and
• It includes indicators such as
Minimum Temperature
Maximum temperature,
Wind speed
Rain fall,
Snow Fall
SITE SPECIFIC DATA
Seismic Conditions /Data:
• Seismic surveys use reflected sound waves to
produce a “CAT scan” of the Earth's subsurface.
Seismic surveys can help locate ground water.
• Seismic Conditions are used to investigate
locations for landfills, and characterize how an
area will shake during an earthquake.
SITE SPECIFIC DATA
Soil Conditions/Investigations:
Soil investigation must be undertaken to determine
• the bearing capacity of the soil,
• its settlement rate and
• the position of the water table.
One of the easiest methods is to dig trial pits and
visual inspections carried out then samples with
minimum disturbance are collected for subsequent
laboratory testing.
SITE SPECIFIC DATA
Local site Conditions Like:
• Terrain, Landscape,
• Water availability
• Slope for self draining of rain water
• Conservancy discharges
• Soil Conditions, Type of Soil
• Other utilities Grid Power
• Ease of availability of Conveniences like Access
roads, rail etc.
Site specific Information-Natural Disasters
When we talk about site specific we must know

each location or site very well
Many times some natural events which can
happen at that location get un-noticed being not
prepared. So must be aware of:
• Earthquake zones
• Landside zones
• Flood zones
• Cyclones zones
• Lighting prone areas etc,
• Border area hazards
EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ZONES
IV
• Zone V MM IX or more
• “ IV MM VIII
•“ III MM VII V
IV
• Zone II MM VI V
• “ I MM V or less
V
• together now make
• Zone II MM VI or less III
• Area under the zones
• V 12%
• IV 18% III
• III ~28.6%
• Total damageable
• ~ 58.6% V
WIND &
CYCLONE
HAZARD
ZONES IN
INDIA
FLOOD
HAZARD
PRONE
AREAS
OF
INDIA
LANDSLIDES
ZONATION
MAP
OF
INDIA
Severe Risk Area

High Risk Area
Moderate Risk Area

Unlikely
Occurrence
Lighting zones
Chemical Risk Analysis to Consider
If you having flammable chemicals stored under

pressure its necessary that one must carry out
detailed risk analysis “dispersal modelling” for
same and visualize site specific effects of same
Let take example of
• Vapour cloud explosion
• BLEVCE
Societal Risk
Are there any risks (accident in our industry)

which goes outside our boundaries and effect
population at large?
• If we have not done QRA, we do not come
know about it.
• If we do not know about it and event occurs
the consequence will so high that, Govt.
public in general will not allow you operate
your plant after the event,
best example for this Bhopal incident .
Vapour Cloud Explosion
When a large amount of flammable
vaporising liquid or gas is rapidly
released a vapour cloud forms and
disperses with the surrounding air.
U V C E
N A L X
C P O P
O O U L
N R D O
F S
I I
N O
E N
D S
• An overpressure caused when a gas cloud

deflagrates & detonates in open air
Impact of VCEs on Facilities
Peak
Overpressure Typical Damage
psi
0.5-to-1 Glass windows break

1-to-2 Common siding types fail:
- corrugated asbestos shatters
- corrugated steel panel joints fail
- wood siding blows in
2-to-3 Unreinforced concrete, cinder block walls fail
3-to-4 Self-framed steel panel buildings collapse
Oil storage tanks rupture
5 Utility poles snap
7 Loaded rail cars overturn
7-8 Unreinforced brick walls fail
BLEVE
Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion

(BLEVE) occurs when there is a
• sudden loss of containment of a
• pressure vessel….
• containing a superheated liquid or
liquefied gas
B L E V E
O I X A X
I Q P P P
L U A O L
I I N U O
N D D R S
G I I
N O
G N
S
• The result of a vessel failure in a fire and release of a

pressurized liquid rapidly into the fire
• A pressure wave, a fire ball, vessel fragments and
burning liquid droplets are usually the result
Thermal Effect
. • 4 kW/ m2 • Causes pain if unable to reach cover
within 20 sec
• 4.7 kW/ m2 • Accepted value to represent injury
• Second degree burn after 25 sec
• 10 kW/ m2
• • Minimum energy required for melting of
12.5 kW/ m2
plastic
• 25 kw/ m2 • Minimum energy required to ignite wood
• 37.5 kW/ m2 • Sufficient to cause damage to the
equipment
• 125 KJ/ m2 • causing 1st degree burn
• 250 KJ/ m2 • causing 2nd degree burn
• 375 KJ/ m2
• causing 3rd degree burn
Distance Comparison
.
INVENTORY UVCE BLEVE FIRE
(tons)
1 120 18 Distance
2 150 36 in Meters
5 200 60
10 250 90 20
20 310 130 30
50 420 200 36
100 530 280 50
200 670 400 60
500 900 600 100
1000 1150 820 130
QRA – Calculation
• QRA calculation will tells if such events occur
how far the effect will be and what will the effect,
so there we can put control measures to reduce
probability of such event occurring
• How calculate this we need to know ,we can use
soft ware for this
E.g. Phast,aloha, CHARM etc.
• Let see some outcome of this
Pressure wave calculation
• Example at LPG Sphere 130 tons for opening at
top .05 m gas release will be 115 kgs cloud will
be 133 m
• VCE occurs
• 90% damage heavy (.3bar) 19 m
• 10% repairable damage (.1 bar) 58 m
• Damage to glass (.03 bar) 194 m
• Window cracking (.01bar) 584 m
Thermal fireball effect calculation
• Example at LPG Sphere 130 tons for opening at
top .05 m gas release catch fire diameter of fire
ball 299m duration 18 sc
• BLEVE occurs
• 50% Lethality (32 kw/m2) 277 m
• 1% Lethality (21kw/m2 ) 358 m
• Ist degree burn (8 .6 kw/m2) 524 m
• Safe distance (4.6 kw/m2) 708 m
Conclude
• So to conclude ERDMP plan document must be
site Specific and
• Based on risk analysis of the specific facilities in
the plant
Thanks….

2 - 2022 - June - ICWG - ERDMP - GSB - AAR - Day 1 - Session 2 - Risk Analysis-R1

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2 - 2022 - June - ICWG - ERDMP - GSB - AAR - Day 1 - Session 2 - Risk Analysis-R1

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Speakers:

and the types of damage caused by them.

NOTE- a risk of 10 per million per year, or 10-5/Year,

Man made Natural Calamities Extraneous

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

1. Location Plan of the Installation

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

2. Site plan of the unit/ plant/ installation

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

3. Layout of Fire Water Systems and Fire

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

4. Line block diagram of manufacturing

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

5. Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS) for

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

6. Internal and External Emergency contact

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

Basic Requirements of ERDMP:

When we talk about site specific we must know

Severe Risk Area

Moderate Risk Area

If you having flammable chemicals stored under

Are there any risks (accident in our industry)

When a large amount of flammable

vaporising liquid or gas is rapidly

released a vapour cloud forms and

disperses with the surrounding air.

• An overpressure caused when a gas cloud

0.5-to-1 Glass windows break

Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion

• The result of a vessel failure in a fire and release of a

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