IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING

CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

2023-2024 FALL SEMESTER

Research Topic: “The effect of spatiality on house price increases: Geographical distribution of house
price increase rate on the basis of NUTS2 regions”

BERİL SÖZBİR
303079001
 CONTENT
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

I. Introduction
II. Study Area & Data
i. Study Area
ii. Data
III.Methodology
i. Descriptive Table
ii. Plots
iii. Kernel Density Estimates (KDE)
iv. ANOVA / T-test
v. Local Geary (Gi*)
vi. Global-Local Moran I
IV. Results & Disscussion
V. Conclusion
VI.References
 I. INTRODUCTION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

The housing sector, which often acts as a lever for country economies with the added value and employment
opportunities it creates, has a special importance in the economy. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, it is seen that
the housing market is affected by many macroeconomic variables (İlhan & Gökçe, 2023), while it is known that urban
transformation works, migration and environmental factors that have accelerated recently are among the factors affecting
the housing market.

Factors such as the structural features of the houses, their location in the city, and their distance to various focal
points are the most important factors in the change of house prices. Accessibility and transportation networks, economic
centers and job opportunities, natural resources and landscape, infrastructure and services, investment and development
opportunities, regulations and policies affected by the location of geographical regions may be among the factors affecting
house price growth.

The aim of this study is to reveal the differences in the house price increase rate on the basis of Turkey's 26 levels
compared to NUTS2. In this context, the increase in house prices for the last 12.75 years was investigated on a 26-level basis
and the house price increase rates were calculated. Inter-regional comparisons were made by descriptive table, Plots, Kernel
Density Estimates, ANOVA/T-test, Global-Local Moran I, Local Geary Global statistical analyses, respectively. 26
Regions were divided into 3 categories: coastal-inland, inland-mountainous, coastal-mountainous, and an attempt was
made to interpret the reasons for the increase in housing price rates.
 II. STUDY AREA & DATA
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

i. Study area
Within the scope of this study, the study area was selected as Turkey's 26 regions according to NUTS2. Using EVDS data
from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the housing increase rate was calculated for 26 levels in the last 12.75 years.

Source: Produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 II. STUDY AREA & DATA
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

ii. Data
26 LEVELS y CATEGORY NUTS2 y
TR 63 (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye) 77,53472544 TR 10 (İstanbul) 158,0346275
TR B1 (Bingöl, Elazığ, Malatya, Tunceli) 80,10943912 TR 31 (İzmir) 161,2224085
TR A2 (Ağrı, Ardahan, Kars, Iğdır) 86,49658575 TR 21 (Edirne, Kırklareli, Tekirdağ) 137,2910217
TR A1 (Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt) 93,65016419 TR 22 (Balıkesir, Çanakkale) 151,6444864
TR B2 (Van, Bitlis, Hakkari, Muş) 94,66117556 TR 32 (Aydın, Denizli, Muğla) 197,951318
Coastal Regions
TR 71 (Nevşehir, Niğde, Aksaray, Kırıkkale, Kırşehir) 99,84459214 TR 42 (Bolu, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Yalova, Düzce) 121,7383269
TR C3 (Batman, Mardin, Siirt, Şırnak) 102,1066478 TR 62 (Adana, Mersin) 151,2403087
TR 90 (Artvin, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize, Trabzon) 104,364253 TR 81 (Zonguldak, Bartın, Karabük) 112,1477357
TR 72 (Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat) 106,9683355 TR 82 (Çankırı, Kastamonu, Sinop) 125,5623696
TR C2 (Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa) 107,1486455 TR 90 (Artvin, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize, Trabzon) 104,364253
TR 83 (Samsun, Çorum, Amasya, Tokat) 111,6385736 TR 51 (Ankara) 124,7878502
TR 81 (Zonguldak, Bartın, Karabük) 112,1477357 TR 33 (Afyonkarahisar, Kütahya, Manisa, Uşak) 115,7284071
TR 33 (Afyonkarahisar, Kütahya, Manisa, Uşak) 115,7284071 TR 41 (Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik) 126,795463
TR 42 (Bolu, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Yalova, Düzce) 121,7383269 TR 52 (Konya, Karaman) 132,894575
TR 51 (Ankara) 124,7878502 Inland Regions TR 61 (Antalya, Burdur, Isparta) 221,4026558
TR 82 (Çankırı, Kastamonu, Sinop) 125,5623696 TR 63 (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye) 77,53472544
TR 41 (Bursa, Eskişehir, Bilecik) 126,795463 TR 71 (Nevşehir, Niğde, Aksaray, Kırıkkale, Kırşehir) 99,84459214
TR C1 (Kilis, Adıyaman, Gaziantep) 129,4678359 TR 72 (Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat) 106,9683355
TR 52 (Konya, Karaman) 132,894575 TR 83 (Samsun, Çorum, Amasya, Tokat) 111,6385736
TR 21 (Edirne, Kırklareli, Tekirdağ) 137,2910217 TR A1 (Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt) 93,65016419
TR 62 (Adana, Mersin) 151,2403087 TR A2 (Ağrı, Ardahan, Kars, Iğdır) 86,49658575
TR 22 (Balıkesir, Çanakkale) 151,6444864 TR B1 (Bingöl, Elazığ, Malatya, Tunceli) 80,10943912
Mountainous
TR 10 (İstanbul) 158,0346275 TR B2 (Van, Bitlis, Hakkari, Muş) 94,66117556
Regions
TR 31 (İzmir) 161,2224085 TR C1 (Kilis, Adıyaman, Gaziantep) 129,4678359
TR 32 (Aydın, Denizli, Muğla) 197,951318 TR C2 (Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa) 107,1486455
TR 61 (Antalya, Burdur, Isparta) 221,4026558 TR C3 (Batman, Mardin, Siirt, Şırnak) 102,1066478
Source: Konut Fiyat Endeksi . (2023, December 30). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası EVDS Verinin Merkezi: retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/310
 III. METHODOLOGY
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

i. Descriptive Table: A table that summarizes the basic statistical measures and properties of a data set provides a structured
overview of the data, reflecting its central tendency, distribution, shape, and other key characteristics.

ii. Plots: The difference between the data was investigated by coloring the layers according to a specific feature and
measurement value, using the visualization method by assigning color to the data set thematically.

iii. Kernel Density Estimates (KDE): The data set was analyzed with the method that creates a density distribution from each
point, considering each data point as a "core".

iv. ANOVA / T-test: Statistical differences between groups were determined using ANOVA and t-test methods, which are
hypothesis testing methods in statistics.

v. Local Geary (Gi*): The statistical method used to evaluate local autocorrelation (local similarity or difference) in spatial data
sets was used to determine whether the values within each spatial unit were homogeneous or heterogeneous when compared to
other units around it.

vi. Global-Local Moran I: The statistical method used to evaluate autocorrelation (local or global similarity or dissimilarity) in
spatial data sets was used to understand the spatial distribution of similarity or dissimilarity between units.
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

i. Descriptive Table
Mean 124,324328 Observation: 26 Region
Median 118,733367
Max 221,4026558 SD: ± 34,037
Min 77,53472544
Range 143,8679303
SD 34,0370436
SD/Mean (Coefficient of Variation) 0,273776212
A descriptive table containing measures of central
Source: In excel environment Produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
tendency and measures of variability was prepared.

The central tendency of the data set is 124,343. The data set ranges from 77,534 to 221,402 values. The width of the
distribution of the data set is seen as 143,867. Each piece of data deviates from the mean by 34,037 units.

The fact that the mean and median values are close to each other shows that the data set has a structure close to symmetric
or normal distribution. In other words, house price increase rates show a normal distribution.

A low coefficient of variation value (27.3%) indicates that the housing price increase rates is relatively homogeneous or the
variability is lower than the average value.
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

ii. Plots

Source: In eviews environment produced by the author

with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic
Source: In ArcGIS environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

ii. Plots

The region with the

highest increase rate is
TR32 (Aydın, Denizli,
Muğla) with 197.95%,
and the region with the
lowest housing price
increase rate is TR90
(Artvin, Giresun,
Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize,
Trabzon) with 104.36%
in coastal cities.

Source: In ArcGIS environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

ii. Plots

This situation is TR61

(Antalya, Burdur, Isparta)
with 221.40% cities, TR63
(Hatay, Kahramanmaraş,
Osmaniye) with 77.53%
for inland cities.

Source: In ArcGIS environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

ii. Plots

We encounter
TRC1 (Kilis,
Adıyaman, Gaziantep)
with 129.46% and TRB1
(Bingöl, Elazığ,
Malatya, Tunceli) with
80.10% for
mountainous cities,
respectively.

Source: In ArcGIS environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

iii. Kernel Density Estimates (KDE)

According to KDE analysis, which is a non-

parametric method, we can say that the data set is
concentrated in 2 poles. It is seen that some of the
regions in the data set have a high house price increase
rate, while the other group has a relatively lower rate.

We can say that house price increases have

increased relatively slowly, especially in the eastern
region, in 12.75 years.

Source: In eviews environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of
Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

The p and f values reached in the

iv. ANOVA ANOVA test performed to investigate
whether there is a significant difference
Anova: Single Factor Significance level=0,05 between 3 separate groups are 0.029
and 3.422, respectively. Since the
SUMMARY
Groups Count Total Median Variance determined significance level is 0.05
Column 1 10 1421,197 142,1196856 771,7699048 > p value=0.029, it is concluded that
Column 2 9 1117,595 124,177242 1603,543823
there is a statistically significant
Column 3 7 693,6405 99,0914991 260,8194834
difference between the groups. Since
the f value, which measures the
ANOVA
Variance Source SS df MS F P-value F criterion
difference in variance, is significantly
Between Groups 7623,811806 2 3811,905903 4,108581841 0,029809 3,422132 larger than 1, it is concluded that the
Within Groups 21339,19663 23 927,7911577 difference is significant between the
Total 28963,00843 25 coastal, inland and mountainous
Source: In SPSS environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
groups.

iv. T-test

T-test's (p-value) coastal-inland 0,14014353 Among the p values obtained as a result of the t-test, =0,140
T-test's (p-value) coast-mountainous 0,000577878 indicates that there is no significant difference between the housing
T-test's (p-value) inland-mountainous 0,057662172 price increase rates of the regions in this category, but since the p-value
Anova F-value 3,422132208
of the other 2 categories is low, housing It can be said that there is a
Anova P-value 0,029808872
significant difference between the price increase rates.
Source: In excel environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

v. Local Geary (Gi*)

According to the Local Geary (Gi*) analysis, within the scope of the cluster map, it can be said that the cluster formed by
the regions with high housing price increase rates is located in the southwest, and the cluster formed by the regions with low
housing increase rates is located in the east and northeast.

Source: In GeoDa environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

v. Local Geary (Gi*)

According to the Local Geary (Gi*) analysis, within the scope of significance map, it can be said that TR33, TR72,
TRA1, TRB1, TRC1, TRB2 regions show significant differences compared to TR32, TR61, TR90, TRA2, TRC2 regions.

Source: In GeoDa environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

vi. Global-Local Moran I

The result of Global Moran-I analysis, which is a statistical

method that measures the presence of spatial autocorrelation (local
independence or similarity), was recorded as Moran's I: 0.412726. A
positive value indicates that there is a spatial concentration and
clustering.

The housing price increase rate of the determined area indicates

that it is of similar value to neighboring units. In this context, high-
high or low-low clustering is observed.

Source: In GeoDa environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the
Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

vi. Global-Local Moran I

According to the Local Moran-I analysis, there are 4 types of clusters. In this context, it can be said that the housing
price increase rates of the eastern regions and their surroundings are low, while the housing price increase rates of the
southwestern regions and their surroundings are high.

Source: In GeoDa environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 IV. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

vi. Global-Local Moran I

Considering the significance map, the gray colored regions cannot form a statistically significant difference or a group
among themselves; Depending on the significance level of p=0.001, p=0.01, p=0.05, it can be said that there is a significant
difference at a very high level, a high level and a limited level, respectively.

Source: In GeoDa environment produced by the author with data provided by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
 V. CONCLUSION
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

In this study, which was created to reveal the differences in the housing price increase rate on a 26-level basis in Turkey
compared to NUTS2, the housing price increase rates were calculated by investigating the increase in housing prices for the last
12.75 years on a 26-level basis. As a result of the methods applied respectively, it was revealed that the increase in housing prices
varies according to geographical locations.

It is seen that there are many differences between regions and spatiality plays an active role in this regard. In particular, it
can be said that the main issue here is the southwest and northeast. It should be emphasized that the reason why the regions
located in the southwest have very fast housing price increase rates, while the regions in the northeast have relatively slower
housing price increase rates is related to geography.

Within the 3 categories determined, it can be said that the mountain is actually a determining feature in the housing price
increase rate, and that the environmental and natural values ​of the regions within the scope of their geographical location and
factors such as migration also play a role in the mentioned housing price increase rate.

As a result, it was concluded that the housing price increase rate of 26 regions varies depending on geography
and spatiality, in line with various analyses.
 VI. REFERENCES
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

• İlhan, S., & Gökçe, A. (2023, July 31). Türkiye’de Bölgelere Göre Konut Fiyatları ve Enflasyon İlişkisi.
International Social Sciences Studies, 9(113), 2587-1587. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.29228/sssj.70884

• Kangallı Uyar, S., & Yayla, N. (2015, March 1). Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları Dinamiklerinin Dalgalanma Etkisi
Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 52(601), 39-57. Pamukkale.

• Konut Fiyat Endeksi . (2023, December 30). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası EVDS Verinin Merkezi:
retrieved from https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/310
IZMIR INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY - DEPARTMENT OF URBAN PLANNING
CP532 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS AND DESIGN

BERİL SÖZBİR 303079001

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