Probability

Introduction
Basic Terminologies
Events
Learning Outcomes
By the end of this chapter, students will develop an
understanding of the definition and concept of
Probability.
Upon completing this chapter, students will get
acquainted with various events and types of
Probability.
By the end of this chapter, students will be able to
apply the probability rules to solve different types
of questions.
 INTRODUCTION
Pro b a b ilit y m e a n s t h e p o s s ib ilit y o f h a p p e n in g o r n on -
h a p p e n in g o f a n e ve n t . Th is is o n e o f t h e m o s t im p o rt a n t
t o p ic s . To b e a b le t o u n d e rs t a n d p ro b a b ilit y p ro p e rly, o n e
n e e d s t o h a ve a n in - d e p t h kn o w le d ge o f Pe rm u t a t io n s a n d
Co m b in a t io n s .
We c a n u s e p ro b a b ilit y in s e ve ra l ga m b lin g ga m e s in t e rm s
o f o d d s a ga in s t w in n in g.
In t h e ga m e o f c h a n c e s , m o re t h a n o n e re s u lt is p o s s ib le ,
t h e re fo re a d e fin it e o u t c o m e is u n p re d ic t a b le . Pro b a b ilit y
t h e o ry a im s t o p ro vid e a m a t h e m a t ic a l s o lu t io n t o a ll s u c h
s it u a t io n s a ris in g in t h e ga m e s of c h a n c e .
 BASIC TERMINOLOGIES
 EXPERIMENT:
An o p e ra t ion t h a t c a n p rod u c e s p e c ific re s u lt s is kn ow n a s
a n e xp e rim e n t .
Exam ple : Rollin g of fa ir d ic e , t o s s in g of a c oin , e t c .

 RANDOM EXPERIMENT:
An y e xp e rim e n t w h os e o u t c om e c a n n ot b e p re d ic t e d o r
d e t e rm in e d in a d va n c e is kn ow n a s a ra n d o m e xp e rim e n t .
 TOTAL NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (SAMPLE SPACE):
Th e s e t of a ll p os s ib le o u t c om e s for a p a rt ic u la r ra n d om
e xp e rim e n t is kn ow n a s s a m p le s p a c e . If ‘n ’ d e n ot e s t h e
n u m b e r of ou t c om e s in a s in gle t ria l a n d ‘m ’ d e n ot e s t h e
n u m b e r of t im e s t h e t ria ls or t h e e ve n t s a re p e rform e d , t h e n
t h e n u m b e r of t ot a l p os s ib le ou t c om e s = n m .
For Exam ple :
Wh e n a d ie is t h row n on c e , it re s u lt s in a n y on e of t h e
n u m b e rs (1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 ).
Sa m p le s p a c e (S) = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 }
Wh e n a c oin is t os s e d t w ic e ,
Sa m p le s p a c e (S) = {HH, TT, HT, TH}
NOTE: Ea c h e le m e n t of t h e s a m p le s p a c e (S) is c a lle d a
s a m p le p oin t .
Exam ple 1: Tw o c oin s a re t os s e d on c e . Fin d t h e
s a m p le s p a c e .
Solut ion: Wh e n t w o c oin s a re t os s e d , t h e p os s ib le ou t c om e s
a re :
1. {H, H} = He a d on b ot h c oin s .
2. {HT, TH} = He a d on t h e firs t c oin a n d t a il on t h e o t h e r c oin ,
t a il on t h e firs t c oin a n d h e a d on t h e ot h e r c oin .
3. {TT} = Ta il on b ot h c oin s .
Th u s , t h e s a m p le s p a c e is
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} = 4 p os s ib le ou t c om e s
Exam ple 2: From a grou p of 2 b oys a n d 2 girls , w e
s e le c t t w o c h ild re n . Wh a t s h ou ld b e t h e s a m p le
s p a c e of t h is e xp e rim e n t ?
Solut ion: He re , t h e t ot a l n u m b e r of c h ild re n = 2 + 2 = 4
Now , t w o c h ild re n c a n b e s e le c t e d ou t of 4 in 4 C2 w a ys
4! 43
   6 ways
2! 2! 2
Exam ple 3: A c oin is t os s e d in it ia lly, if t h e t a il oc c u rs , a b a ll is
d ra w n from a b ox of 2 re d a n d 2 w h it e b a lls b u t , if t h e h e a d oc c u rs ,
w e t h row a d ic e . Fin d t h e s a m p le s p a c e of t h is e xp e rim e n t .
Solut ion: Su p p os e t h e t w o re d b a lls a re R 1, R2 a n d 2 w h it e b a lls a re
W1, W2 .
If it s h ow s t a il, ou t c om e s a re = TR1, TR2 , TW1, TW2
If it s h ow s h e a d , ou t c om e s a re = H1, H2, H3, H4 , H5, H6

Tot a l ou t c om e s or (S) = 
TR1 , TR2 , TW1 , TW2
H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6 
He n c e , t h e t ot a l n u m b e r of ou t c om e s is 10 .
 EVENTS
A s u b s e t o f a s a m p le s p a c e is kn o w n a s a n e ve n t .
Fo r Exam ple :
Su p p o s e a b o y t h ro w s a d ie a n d re p o rt s t h a t t h e n u m b e r t h a t
a p p e a re d o n t h e d ie is a n e ve n n u m b e r. In t h is c a s e , h e s h o u ld h a ve
go t 2, 4 , o r 6 b e c a u s e t h e s e a re t h e o n ly e ve n n u m b e rs in t h e
s a m p le s p a c e .
Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 }
Eve n t (E) = {2, 4 , 6 }
He n c e , w e c a n s a y t h a t e ve n t (E) is t h e s u b s e t o f s a m p le s p a c e (S).
 OCCURRENCE OF AN EVENT:
Wh e n a n ou t c om e s a t is fie s t h e c on d it ion m e n t ion e d in t h e
e ve n t c om p le t e ly, t h e n w e c a n s a y t h a t t h e e ve n t h a s oc c u rre d .
For e xam ple :
Su p p os e w e t h row a d ie , a n d t h e e ve n t (E) = “a n u m b e r le s s
t h a n 3 a p p e a rs on t h e d ie ”.
Now , if 1 a n d 2 a p p e a r on t h e d ie , t h e n w e w ill s a y t h a t e ve n t
(E) h a s oc c u rre d a n d if 3, 4 , 5, a n d 6 a p p e a r on t h e d ie t h e n w e
w ill s a y t h a t e ve n t (E) h a s n ot oc c u rre d .
 TYPES OF EVENTS
1. SIMPLE EVENT:
If a n e ve n t h a s o n ly o n e s a m p le p o in t of t h e s a m p le s p a c e , it is
c a lle d a s im p le (or e le m e n t a ry) e ve n t .
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e a b o y t h row s a c o in .
Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) = {H, T}
Th e re a re fou r s u b s e t s of s a m p le s p a c e (S) = {H}, {T}, {HT}, {}
In t h is c a s e {H} a n d {T} a re s im p le e ve n t s .
2. COMPOUND EVENTS:

Th os e e ve n t s w h ic h h a ve m ore t h a n on e s a m p le p oin t of

t h e s a m p le s p a c e is kn ow n a s c om p ou n d e ve n t s .

In t h e a b ove e xa m p le {HT} is a c om p ou n d e ve n t
3. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS:
Th e s e a re t h e e ve n t s t h a t h a ve t h e s a m e c h a n c e s of
oc c u rre n c e in a n e xp e rim e n t .
For Exam ple :
1
Wh e n a c oin is t h row n , t h e p rob a b ilit y of h e a d or t a il = ,
2
t h e n w e c a n s a y t h a t (H) a n d (T) a re e q u a lly like ly e ve n t s .
Sim ila rly, w h e n a d ic e is rolle d , t h e p rob a b ilit y of ge t t in g 1, 2,
1
3, 4 , 5, or 6 is t h e s a m e a n d e q u a l t o .
6
Th e n {1} {2} {3} {4 } {5} {6 } a re e q u a lly like ly e ve n t s .
4 . SURE EVENT:

Le t S b e a s a m p le s p a c e a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om

e xp e rim e n t of rollin g a d ie .

He re , S = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 }. Th e s e t S is a ls o a s u b s e t of S (S

 S). Sin c e e ve ry ou t c om e of t h e e xp e rim e n t is a m e m b e r

of S, on e c a n s a y t h a t S is a s u re e ve n t or a c e rt a in e ve n t .
5. IMPOSSIBLE EVENT:
An e ve n t a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om e xp e rim e n t is kn ow n a s
a n im p os s ib le e ve n t if it n e ve r oc c u rs w h e n e ve r t h e
e xp e rim e n t is p e rform e d .
For e xam ple : Ch oos in g a ye llow b a ll from a b a g c on t a in in g
3 re d b a lls a n d 5 b lu e b a lls is a n im p os s ib le e ve n t .
6 . COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT:
Th e c om p le m e n t of a n e ve n t E is t h e s e t of a ll e le m e n t s of
s a m p le s p a c e (S) t h a t a re n ot in E. Th e Com p le m e n t of a n
e ve n t is d e n ot e d b y E’ or E or E c .
Th u s , E’ = S – E
E’ + E = S ……………(A)
If w e d ivid e t h is t h rou gh ou t b y S, w e c a n s a y
E' E S
+ =
S S S
Wh ic h give s u s P(E’) + P(E) = 1
Now , w e c a n c on c lu d e t h a t t h e s u m of t h e p rob a b ilit y of
oc c u rre n c e of a n e ve n t a n d t h e p rob a b ilit y of n on -
oc c u rre n c e of a n e ve n t is e q u a l t o 1.
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e a p e rs on t os s e s a c oin a n d E is t h e e ve n t of
1
ge t t in g h e a d s P(E) = ,
2
1 1
Als o P(E) =1- =
2 2
Now , w e c a n c on c lu d e t h a t t h e c om p le m e n t of ge t t in g a
h e a d is n ot h in g b u t ge t t in g a t a il.
 ALGEBRA OF EVENTS
Now , w e h a ve u n d e rs t o od t h a t a s a m p le s p a c e is a s e t o f a ll
p os s ib le ou t c om e s o f a n e xp e rim e n t , a n d t h e e ve n t s a re
s u b s e t s of t h e s a m p le s p a c e . In t h is s e c t ion , w e w ill le a rn
h o w n e w e ve n t s c a n b e c o n s t ru c t e d b y c om b in in g t w o or
m ore e ve n t s .
If w e m a ke a n a s s u m p t ion t h a t s a m p le s p a c e is a u n ive rs a l
s e t fo r t h e s e e ve n t s , t h e n w e h a ve t h e follow in g re s u lt s .
Le t A, B, a n d C b e t h e e ve n t s of a s a m p le s p a c e S.

 (A  B) or (A or B) is a n e ve n t t h a t m e a n s “e it h e r A or B o r
b ot h oc c u r”.
 (A  B) or (A a n d B) is a n e ve n t t h a t m e a n s “b ot h A a n d B
oc c u r”.
 A’ or Ac or A is a n e ve n t t h a t m e a n s “A d oe s n ot oc c u r”.
 (A – B) is a n e ve n t t h a t m e a n s “A oc c u rs b u t B d oe s n ot ”.
POINTS TO REMEMBER:
1. (A  B)’ = A’  B’
2. (A  B)’ = A’  B’
3. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C
4. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C
5. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  (A  C)
6. A  (B  C) = (A  B)  (A  C)
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENT:
Tw o or m ore t h a n t w o e ve n t s t h a t a re a s s oc ia t e d w it h a
ra n d om e xp e rim e n t a re s a id t o b e m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive , w h e n
t h e oc c u rre n c e of a n y on e of t h e m e xc lu d e s t h e oc c u rre n c e
of t h e ot h e r e ve n t s .
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e a b oy rolls a d ie ,
Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) = {1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 }
Eve n t A = a ll od d n u m b e rs = {1, 3, 5}
Eve n t B = a ll e ve n n u m b e rs = {2, 4 , 6 }
PICTORIALLY:
A  B =  (n u ll)
He n c e , w e c a n s a y t h a t b ot h e ve n t s a re m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive .
Le t ’s u n d e rs t a n d a n ot h e r e xa m p le
Eve n t A = a ll e ve n n u m b e rs from
1 t o 20 = (2, 4 , 6 , 8 , 10 , 12, 14 , 16 ,
18 , 20 )
Eve n t B = a ll od d p rim e n u m b e rs
from 1 t o 20 = (3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17,
19 )
A  B = 
(Mut ually Exc lus ive and Exhaus t ive Eve nt s ):
Tw o or m ore t h a n t w o e ve n t s a re s a id t o b e e xh a u s t ive e ve n t s if
t h e ir u n ion d e n ot e s t h e e n t ire Sa m p le Sp a c e .
For Exam ple :
If e ve n t A is “c a rd is re d ” a n d e ve n t B is “Ca rd is b la c k” t h e n b ot h
e ve n t s a re s a id t o b e m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive a n d e xh a u s t ive e ve n t s .
 [e ve n t A  e ve n t B = s a m p le s p a c e (A d e c k of 52 c a rd s )]

Fu rt h e r, if e ve n t A is t h e “c a rd of s p a d e ” a n d e ve n t B is t h e “c a rd
of d ia m on d ”, t h e n b ot h e ve n t s a re s a id t o b e m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive
b u t n ot e xh a u s t ive e ve n t s .
 (A  B ≠ Sa m p le Sp a c e )
NOTE:
Wh e n t w o or m ore s e t s of e ve n t s a re m u t u a lly
e xc lu s ive a s w e ll a s c olle c t ive ly e xh a u s t ive , t h e n t h e
s u m of t h e ir p rob a b ilit ie s is 1.
PROBABILITY:
Now , w e t a lk a b ou t t h e c h a n c e s t h a t a p a rt ic u la r e ve n t
w ill oc c u r w h e n w e p e rform a n e xp e rim e n t . Le t S b e
t h e s a m p le s p a c e a n d E is a n e ve n t , w h e re E  S.
No. off avourable outcomes
Prob a b ilit y (E) =
Total outcomes
or
Number of Elements in E
P(E) =
Number of Elements in S
Exam ple - 4 :If t w o d ic e a re t h row n u p s im u lt a n e ou s ly, w h a t
is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t on e d ie s h ow s u p ‘3’ a n d t h e ot h e r
s h ow s u p ‘4 ’?
Solut ion: Wh e n t w o d ic e a re t h row n .
Tot a l n u m b e r of ou t c om e s = 6 n  6 2  36
Fa vora b le ou t c om e s = (3, 4 ) a n d (4 , 3)
No. of favourable outcomes 2 1
P(E) = = =
Total outcomes 36 18
Exam ple - 5: If 6 c oin s a re t os s e d t oge t h e r, w h a t is t h e
p rob a b ilit y of ge t t in g e xa c t ly 2 h e a d s ?
Solut ion: Wh e n 6 c oin s a re t os s e d ,
Tot a l n u m b e r of ou t c om e s = 2 n  2 6  6 4
Th e n u m b e r of ou t c om e s of a n e ve n t of ge t t in g e xa c t ly 2
heads
= Com b in a t ion of 2 h e a d s a n d 4 t a ils .
6!
 C2 =
6
 15 ou t c om e s
4!× 2!
Favourable number of outcomes 15
P(E) = 
Total number of outcomes 64
Exam ple - 6 : If 6 c oin s a re t os s e d t oge t h e r, w h a t is the
p rob a b ilit y of ge t t in g a t le a s t 2 t a ils ?
Solut ion: Wh e n 6 c oin s a re t os s e d ,
Tot a l n u m b e r of ou t c om e s = 2 n = 2 6 = 6 4
(Me t hod 1)
Fa vora b le ou t c om e s for a n e ve n t = ge t t in g 2 t a ils ou t of 6 + ge t t in g
3 t a ils ou t of 6 + ge t t in g 4 t a ils ou t of 6 + ge t t in g 5 t a ils ou t of 6
+ ge t t in g 6 t a ils ou t of 6 .
6 6 6 6 6
P(E) =
C 2 + C 3 + C 4 + C 5 + C 6
64
15+20+15+6+1 57
P(E) = =
64 64
(Me t hod 2)
P (a t le a s t 2 t a ils ) = 1 – P (ge t t in g n o t a il or e xa c t ly on e t a il).
1
P (ge t t in g n o t a il) = P (ge t t in g a ll h e a d ) =
64
6
C1 6
P (Exa c t ly on e t a il) = 
64 64
1 6 7
P (ge t t in g n o t a il or e xa c t ly on e t a il) =  
64 64 64
7 57
P (a t le a s t 2 t a ils ) = 1  
64 64
Points to Re m e m be r
• Th e p rob a b ilit y of a n im p os s ib le e ve n t = 0 i.e ., P( φ) = 0 .
• Th e p rob a b ilit y of a c e rt a in / s u re e ve n t = 1.
• Th e p rob a b ilit y of a n e ve n t is gre a t e r t h a n e q u a ls t o ze ro a n d
le s s t h a n e q u a l t o 1 i.e ., 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
• Th e p rob a b ilit y of oc c u rre n c e of A b u t n ot B is ,
P(A – B) = P(A) – P(A  B)
Number off avourable outcomes
• Od d s in fa vou r of t h e e ve n t =
Number of unfavourable outcomes
Number of unfavourable outcomes
Od d s a ga in s t t h e e ve n t =
Number of favourable outcomes
• P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B).
• P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A  B)
– P(B  C) – P(C  A) + P(A  B  C).
La s t t w o p oin t s a re a ls o kn ow n a s Ad d it ion t h e ore m of
Prob a b ilit y
Le t ’s unde rs t and s om e e xam ple s t o unde rs t and t he bas ic s of
c ards .

Exam ple - 7 : From a d e c k of 52 p la yin g c a rd s , c on s is t in g of

fou r s u it s h a vin g 13 c a rd s e a c h .
a. Wh a t is t h e m in im u m n u m b e r of c a rd s t o b e p ic ke d t o
e n s u re a t le a s t 2 fa c e c a rd s (kin g, Qu e e n , J a c k)
b. Wh a t is t h e m in im u m n u m b e r of c a rd s t o b e p ic ke d t o
e n s u re a t le a s t 8 c a rd s of t h e s a m e c olor?
Solut ion- a: To s olve s u c h t yp e of q u e s t ion a lw a ys t h in k o f
t h e w ors t - c a s e s c e n a rio.
He re , t h e w ors t - c a s e s c e n a rio is t h a t w e p ic k t h e firs t c a rd
a n d it t u rn s ou t t o b e a n on - fa c e c a rd , a ga in w e p ic k a c a rd
a n d it t u rn s ou t t o b e a n on - fa c e c a rd .
Now in e a c h t ria l, w e p ic k a ll t h e n on - fa c e c a rd s (i.e ., 4 0
c a rd s ) w h ic h is t h e m a xim u m w it h ou t s a t is fyin g t h e c on d it ion
Now , if w e p ic k t h e 4 1s t c a rd t h e n it t u rn s ou t t o b e t h e firs t
fa c e c a rd , a n d t h e 4 2n d c a rd t h e n it t u rn s ou t t o b e t h e
s e c on d fa c e c a rd .
Now t h e c on c lu s ion is t o e n s u re a t le a s t 2 fa c e c a rd s . So, w e
n e e d t o p ic k a t le a s t 4 2 c a rd s .
Solut ion- b: He re , t h e w ors t - c a s e s c e n a rio is t h a t w e p ic k
7 c a rd s of b la c k s u it a n d 7 c a rd s of re d s u it , a t ot a l of 14
c a rd s w it h ou t s a t is fyin g t h e c on d it ion . Now , t h e n e xt c a rd
w e p ic k it m a y b e of re d c olor a n d b la c k c olor.
He n c e , t o e n s u re a t le a s t 8 c a rd s of t h e s a m e c olor w e
m u s t p ic k 15 c a rd s .
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY:
If n id e n t ic a l a n d in d e p e n d e n t t ria ls a re c on d u c t e d a n d e a c h
t ria l h a s a p rob a b ilit y of s u c c e s s ‘A’ a n d a p rob a b ilit y of fa ilu re
‘B’ (w h e re B = 1 – A), t h e n t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t e xa c t ly ‘r’ ou t of
‘n ’ t ria ls a re s u c c e s s fu l is give n b y
= n Cr × Ar × B(n – r)
PROPERTIES OF BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT:
 Th e e xp e rim e n t c on s is t s n id e n t ic a l t ria ls .
 Th e t ria ls m u s t b e in d e p e n d e n t a
Le t 's unde rs t and t his c onc e pt w it h t he he lp of e xam ple s :

Exam ple - 8 : If 10 0 c oin s a re t os s e d , w h a t w ill b e t h e

p rob a b ilit y of ge t t in g e xa c t ly 52 h e a d s ?
Solut ion: He re ge t t in g t h e h e a d c a n b e t a ke n a s a s u c c e s s
a n d ge t t in g t a il c a n b e t a ke n a s a fa ilu re
1
Prob a b ilit y of s u c c e s s (ge t t in g h e a d ) = A = 2
1
Prob a b ilit y of fa ilu re = (ge t t in g t a il) = B = 2
He re n = 10 0 a n d r = 52

By u s in g b in o m ia l p rob a b ilit y, w e c a n d ire c t ly w rit e t h is a s

52 48
100 1  1 
C52      
2  2 

100
C52
Re q u ire d p ro b a b ilit y =
2 
100
Exam ple - 9 : If 10 d ic e a re rolle d , w h a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y of
ge t t in g a t le a s t 8 “5”?
Solut ion: He re , 8 or 9 or 10 “5”’s c a n b e p os s ib le .
By u s in g b in om ia l p rob a b ilit y
8 2
Prob a b ilit y of 8 “5”’s = 10 1 5
C8 ×   ×  
6 6
9 1
Prob a b ilit y of 9 “5”’s = 10 1 5
C9 ×   ×  
6 6
10 0
Prob a b ilit y of 10 “5”’s = 10 1 1
C10 ×   ×  
6 6
Tot a l Prob a b ilit y

8 2 9 1 10 0
10 1 5 10 1 5 10 1 1
= C8       + C9       + C10       .
6 6 6 6 6 6
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
Su p p os e A a n d B a re t w o e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om
e xp e rim e n t . Th e n t h e p rob a b ilit y of t h e oc c u rre n c e of a n
e ve n t A, give n t h a t a n e ve n t B h a s a lre a d y oc c u rre d , w h e re
P(B) ≠ 0 , is kn ow n a s c on d it ion a l p rob a b ilit y.
A
It is d e n ot e d b y P   a n d re a d a s :
B
1. Prob a b ilit y of A w h e n B h a s a lre a d y oc c u rre d .
2. Prob a b ilit y of A t a kin g B a s a s a m p le s p a c e .
3. Prob a b ilit y of A w it h re s p e c t t o B.
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e a c la s s c on t a in in g 25 s t u d e n t s , 12 girls (5 Brow n h a ir
a n d 7 Blu e h a ir) a n d 13 b oys (7 Brow n h a ir a n d 6 Blu e h a ir).
Wh a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a s t u d e n t c h os e n a t ra n d om w ill
h a ve Brow n h a ir; give n t h a t it is a b oy?
He re , t h e w ord s give n t h a t it is a b oy m e a n s t h a t ou r s a m p le
s p a c e is re d u c e d t o 13 b oys a n d fa vora b le ou t c om e s w ill b e
7 Brow n h a ir Boys .
7
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y =
13
TIP:

In Qu e s t ion s w h e n on e s e e a “give n t h a t ” or “if” t h e n , on e

s h ou ld a s k on e s e lf “is t h is re s t ric t in g t h e p os s ib le ou t c om e s ”.

 A  Number of events favourable to A and B

Now , P   =
B Number of events favourable to B

 A  P(A  B)
 P  =
B P(B)
THERE ARE SOME PROPERTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:

PROPERTY- 1: Wh e n A a n d B a re t w o e ve n t s of a s a m p le
s p a c e (S) a n d F is a n e ve n t of S s u c h t h a t P(F) ≠ 0 t h e n
 A B   A  B  A B 
P   P      P 
 F F
     F  F 
If A a n d B a re m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive e ve n t s , t h e n P (A  B) = 0

 A B   A  B
P   P   P 
 F   F  F
PROPERTY- 2: If A a n d B a re t h e e ve n t s of Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) of


a ra n d om e xp e rim e n t , t h e n P    1  P  A 
A
B B
Exam ple - 10 : 15 Ca rd s , n u m b e re d 1 t o 15, a re p la c e d in a b o x,
m ixe d u p t h orou gh ly, a n d t h e n a c a rd is d ra w n a t ra n d om
from t h e b ox, If it is kn ow n t h a t t h e n u m b e r on t h e d ra w n
c a rd is m ore t h a n 5, t h e n fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t it is a n
e ve n n u m b e r.
Solut ion: Le t Eve n t A = [Th e n u m b e r on t h e c a rd is e ve n ].
Le t Eve n t B = [Th e n u m b e r o n t h e c a rd is gre a t e r t h a n 5]
Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) = [1, 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 , 7, 8 , 9 , 10 , 11, 12, 13, 14 , 15].
(A) = [2, 4 , 6 , 8 , 10 , 12, 14 ]
(B) = [6 , 7, 8 , 9 , 10 , 11, 12, 13, 14 , 15]
(A  B) = (6 , 8 , 10 , 12, 14 )
 7 10
P(A) = , P(B) = ,
15 15

5
and P (A  B) =
15

5
 A  P(A  B) 15 1
P    
B P(B) 10 2
15
Alt e rnat e (e as y) Solut ion:

He re , “give n t h a t d ra w n c a rd is m ore t h a n 5” m e a n s t h a t ou r
s a m p le s p a c e is re d u c e d t o a n u m b e r m ore t h a n 5.
Sa m p le Sp a c e (S) = (6 , 7, 8 , 9 , 10 , 11, 12, 13, 14 , 15) = 10 ou t c om e s
Fa vora b le ou t c om e s = (6 , 8 , 10 , 12, 14 ) = 5 ou t c om e s

Favourable outcomes 5 1
P(E) =  
Total outcomes 10 2
Exam ple - 11 : In a c la s s , 55% of t h e s t u d e n t s re a d En glis h
a n d 4 0 % of s t u d e n t s re a d Hin d i a n d 20 % of t h e s t u d e n t s re a d
b ot h En glis h a n d Hin d i. On e s t u d e n t is s e le c t e d a t ra n d om .
Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t h e re a d s En glis h if it is kn ow n t h a t
h e re a d s Hin d i.
2 1 4 1
(1) (2) (3) (4 )
3 2 5 4
Solut ion :
Le t Eve n t A = [Re a d in g En glis h ]
Eve n t B = [Re a d in g Hin d i]
 55 11 40 2
P(A)   , P(B)   ,
100 20 100 5

20 1
and P(A  B) = 
100 5

1
 A  P(A  B) 5 1
P     
B P(B) 2 2
5
Alt e rnat e Solut ion:
We c a n s olve t h is q u e s t ion b y u s in g t h e Ve n n d ia gra m .
He re it is give n t h a t h e re a d s Hin d i s o ou r s a m p le s p a c e
is re d u c e d t o Hin d i.
Fa vou ra b le ou t c om e s = 20 %
Tot a l ou t c om e s
= 4 0 % (re a d s Hin d i)
20% 1
P(E)  
40% 2
MULTIPLICATION THEOREM OF PROBABILITY:
As w e kn ow w h e n A a n d B a re t w o e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h
t h e ra n d om e xp e rim e n t t h e n ,
 A  P(A  B)  B  P(A  B)
P   a n d P  
B P(B) A P(A)
By c ros s m u lt ip lic a t ion
A
P (A  B) = P(B) × P  
B
B
a n d P (A  B) = P(A) × P  
A
From t h e a b ove re s u lt s , w e c a n c on c lu d e t h a t

If E 1, E 2 , E 3 , E 4 ……………E n a re t h e e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h
t h e s a m e ra n d om e xp e rim e n t t h e n t h e p rob a b ilit y of
(E 1 E2  E3  E4 ………….. En )

 E2   E3   En 
= P(E1 )  P    P  ........P  
E
 1 E 
 1 2E E 
 1 2 E  E 3 ......En1 
Exam ple - 12 : A b a g c on t a in s 5 Bla c k a n d 8 Wh it e b a lls . Tw o
s u c c e s s ive d ra w in gs of t h re e b a lls a re m a d e w it h ou t
re p la c e m e n t . Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e firs t d ra w re s u lt s
in 3 b la c k b a lls a n d t h e s e c on d d ra w re s u lt s in 3 w h it e b a lls .
(1) 7/ 6 76 (2) 7/ 4 29 (3) 5/ 6 3 (4 ) 9 / 130
Solut ion :
Le t u s a s s u m e t h a t t h e e ve n t of d ra w in g 3 Bla c k b a lls is A
a n d t h e e ve n t of d ra w in g 3 w h it e b a lls is B.
5 8
C3 10 5   C3 56 7
B
P(A) = 13   P   = 10 = =
C3 286 143 A C3 120 15
Tot a l Prob a b ilit y = P (A  B)
B 5 7 7
P (A  B) = P(A) × P   =  
 A  143 15 429
DEPENDENT EVENTS:
Su p p os e A a n d B a re t w o e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om
e xp e rim e n t , t h e n t h e oc c u rre n c e of on e of t h e e ve n t s is
a ffe c t e d b y t h e oc c u rre n c e of t h e o t h e r e ve n t . Su c h e ve n t s
a re c a lle d d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s .
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e w e h a ve 10 b la c k b a lls a n d 10 w h it e b a lls in a
b u c ke t . On e b a ll is d ra w n a t ra n d om w it h ou t re p la c e m e n t ,
w h ic h m a y b e b la c k or w h it e . Wh a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t
t h e s e c on d b a ll w it h d ra w n w ill b e w h it e ?
Now , if t h e firs t b a ll is w h it e , t h e n t h e b u c ke t is le ft w it h
9 w h it e b a lls ou t of 19 b a lls . So, t h e p rob a b ilit y of d ra w in g
9
a w h it e b a ll on t h e s e c on d d ra w is .
19
Bu t if t h e firs t b a ll is b la c k, t h e n t h e b u c ke t is le ft w it h
10 w h it e b a lls ou t of 19 b a lls . So, t h e p rob a b ilit y of
10
d ra w in g a w h it e b a ll on t h e s e c on d d ra w is .
19
He n c e , w e c a n s a y t h a t a s e c on d d ra w is d e p e n d e n t on
t h e firs t d ra w .
INDEPENDENT EVENTS:
Su p p os e A a n d B a re t w o e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d o m
e xp e rim e n t , t h e n t h e oc c u rre n c e of on e of t h e e ve n t s is n o t
a ffe c t e d b y t h e oc c u rre n c e of t h e ot h e r e ve n t . Su c h e ve n t s a re
c a lle d in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s .
For Exam ple :
Con s id e r a n e xp e rim e n t of d ra w in g a c a rd from a d e c k o f 52
c a rd s . If e ve n t A d e n ot e s “Th e c a rd d ra w n is a He a rt ” a n d Eve n t
B d e n ot e s “Th e Ca rd d ra w n is a q u e e n ” re s p e c t ive ly, t h e n
 13 1  1
P(A)   a n d P(B)  
52 4 52 13
P (A  B) = [Th e c a rd d ra w n is t h e q u e e n of He a rt ].
1
 A  P(A  B) 52 1
 P    
B P(B) 1 4
13
A 1
Sin c e P(A)  P   
B 4
He re , w e c a n s a y t h a t t h e p rob a b ilit y of Eve n t B is n ot
a ffe c t e d b y t h e p rob a b ilit y of Eve n t A.
 1
 B  P(A  B) 52 1
 P    
A P(A) 1 13
4
B 1
Sin c e P(B) = P   
 A  13
He re , w e c a n s a y t h a t t h e p rob a b ilit y of Eve n t A is n ot
a ffe c t e d b y t h e p rob a b ilit y of Eve n t B.
Now , w e c a n c le a rly s a y t h a t Eve n t A a n d Eve n t B a re
in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s .
Im po rtant Po ints
1. Tw o e ve n t s a re s a id t o b e in d e p e n d e n t if
P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B)
2. Th re e e ve n t s a re s a id t o b e in d e p e n d e n t if
P(A  B  C) = P(A) × P(B) × P(B)
3. For ‘n ’ e ve n t s .
P(E1 E2  E3  E4 ………En ) = P(E 1) × P(E 2 ) × P(E 3 ) × ………P(En )
4. If E1, E2 , E3 ……….En a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a
ra n d om e xp e rim e n t , t h e n t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a t le a s t on e
happens = 1  P(E1 ) P(E2 ) P(E3 )  P(E4 ) ............P(En )
5. If A a n d B a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om

e xp e rim e n t , t h e n

(a ) A a n d B a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t i.e ., (A  B) = P( A ) × P(B)

(b ) A a n d B a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t i.e ., (A  B) = P(A) × P( B )

(c ) A a n d B a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t i.e ., (A  B) = P( A ) × P( B )
Exam ple - 13 : In a t e s t , t w o frie n d s Ra gh a v a n d As h w a n i
1
a p p e a re d . Ra gh a v’s c h a n c e s of c le a rin g t h e t e s t a re , w h ile
5
3
As h w a n i’s c h a n c e s of c le a rin g t h e t e s t a re . Wh a t is t h e
7
p rob a b ilit y t h a t b ot h w ill p a s s t h e t e s t if it is give n t h a t t h e
t w o of t h e m d o n ot c op y from e a c h ot h e r?
Solut ion : He re it is give n t h a t t h e t w o of t h e m d o n ot c op y
from e a c h ot h e r, w h ic h m e a n s Ra gh a v’s p a s s in g or fa ilin g w ill
h a ve n o b e a rin g on As h w a n i’s p a s s in g or fa ilin g.
1 3 3
P (Bot h w ill p a s s ) = × =
5 7 35
Exam ple - 14 : 5 frie n d s , Am a n , Ba m a n , Ch a m a n , Dh e e ra j, a n d
Ne e ra j h a ve t h e ir b irt h d a ys in t h e c om in g w e e k from (Mon d a y
t o Su n d a y). Wh a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a t le a s t on e of t h e m
w ill h a ve a b irt h d a y on a w e e ke n d ?
Solut ion :
In t h is c a s e , t h e d a t e of b irt h of on e frie n d w ill n ot h a ve a n y
re la t ion w it h t h e d a t e of b irt h of a n ot h e r frie n d .
Th e re a re s e ve n d a ys in a w e e k (5 w e e kd a ys a n d 2 w e e ke n d s ).
5
Th e p rob a b ilit y t h a t e a c h of t h e m is n ot on a w e e ke n d =
7
  For a ll five t o b e n ot on t h e w e e ke n d
5 5 5 5 5 3125
= × × × × =
7 7 7 7 7 16807
P (a t le a s t on e on a w e e ke n d ) = 1 – Non e on a w e e ke n d
3125 13682
= 1 
16807 16807
Exam ple - 15 : An ku r is a t e a c h e r. Th e p rob a b ilit y t h a t h e t a ke s
1
a n u n a n n ou n c e d t e s t d u rin g a n y c la s s m e e t in g is . If a
7
s t u d e n t is a b s e n t t h ric e , w h a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t h e w ill
m is s a t le a s t on e t e s t ?
1 127 196 216
(A) (B) (C) (D)
343 343 343 343
Solut ion :
Su p p os e E i is t h e Eve n t t h a t t h e s t u d e n t m is s e s i t h t e s t
(i = 1, 2, 3), t h e n E 1, E 2 , E 3 a re in d e p e n d e n t e ve n t s u c h t h a t
1
P(E 1) = P(E 2 ) = P(E 3 ) =
7
 Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = 1  P(E1 ) P(E2 )  P(E3 )

 1  1  1
 1   1   1   1  
 7  7  7

6 6 6 127
 1   =
7 7 7 343
Exam ple - 16 : Ta ru n c a n h it a t a rge t 4 t im e s in 6 s h ot s .
Ab h is h e k c a n h it a t a rge t 5 t im e s in 6 s h ot s , a n d An kit c a n h it
a t a rge t 3 t im e s in 4 s h ot s . Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a n y t w o
of Ta ru n , Ab h is h e k, a n d An kit w ill h it t h e t a rge t .
30 36 31 35
(A) (B) (C) (D)
72 72 72 72
Solut ion:
Le t ’s d e fin e t h re e e ve n t s A, B, a n d C s u c h t h a t
A = Ta ru n h it s t h e t a rge t .
B = Ab h is h e k h it s t h e t a rge t .
C = An kit h it s t h e t a rge t .
 4 2 5 3
P(A) = 6 = 3, P(B) = , a n d P(C) =
6 4
P(An y t w o of A, B, a n d C w ill h it t h e t a rge t ).
= P(A  B  C)  P(A  B  C)  P(A  B  C)

 2 5  3  2  5  3   2  5 3 
= P     1     P    1      P  1     
 3 6  4  3  6  4   3  6 4 
2 5 1 2 1 3 1 5 3
=        
3 6 4 3 6 4 3 6 4
10 6 15 31
=   =
72 72 72 72
TOTAL PROBABILITY:
Su p p os e (A1, A2 , A3 ……..An ) b e n m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive a n d
e xh a u s t ive e ve n t s a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om e xp e rim e n t of
s a m p le s p a c e (S).
If a n e ve n t ‘E’ oc c u rs w it h A1 or A2 or A3 …………….A t h e n .
 E  E   E 
P(E) = P(A1 )  P    P(A2 )  P    ......  P(An )  P  
 A1   A2   An 
n
E
= 
i1
P(Ai )  P  
 Ai 
Exam ple - 17 : A b a g c on t a in s 5 gold c oin s a n d 3 s ilve r c oin s . A
s e c on d b a g c on t a in s 3 gold c oin s a n d 5 s ilve r c oin s . On e b a g is
s e le c t e d ra n d om ly a n d from t h e s e le c t e d b a g on e c oin is d ra w n .
Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e c oin d ra w n is of gold .
1 1 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 4 2 3
Solut ion : Le t A1 = s e le c t in g b a g I
A2 = s e le c t in g b a g II
E = d ra w in g a gold c oin .
 On e of t h e t w o b a gs is s e le c t e d ra n d om ly t h e n ,
1 1
P(A1) = a n d P(A2 ) =
2 2
  E 
Now , P   = (Prob a b ilit y of d ra w in g a gold c oin w h e n t h e
 A1 
firs t b a g h a s b e e n c h os e n .)
E 5
P  =
 A1  8
E 
Now , P   = (Prob a b ilit y of d ra w in g a gold c oin w h e n t h e
 A2 
s e c on d b a g h a s b e e n c h os e n ).
 E  3
P 
 A2  8
By u s in g t ot a l p rob a b ilit y
 E   E 
P(E) = P(A1) × P    P(A2 )  P  
 A1   A2 
1 5 1 3
=   
2 8 2 8
5 3 8 1
= + = =
16 16 16 2
Alt e rnat e Solut ion :
1
Firs t , w e n e e d t o c h oos e a b a g, P(Ch oos in g a b a g) =
2
5
Now , P(d ra w in g a gold c oin from b a g 1) =
8
3
P (Dra w in g a gold c oin from b a g 2) =
8
1 5 3 1 1
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y =     =  1   
2 8 8  2 2
BAYES’ THEOREM:
Su p p os e ‘S’ b e t h e s a m p le s p a c e a n d A1, A2 , A3 …………An b e
n m u t u a lly e xc lu s ive a n d c olle c t ive ly e xh a u s t ive e ve n t s
a s s oc ia t e d w it h a ra n d om e xp e rim e n t . If E is a n y e ve n t t h a t
oc c u rs w it h A1 o r A2 ……….or An . Th e n ,
E
P(Ai )  P  
 Ai   Ai 
P  n , (i  1, 2,.......n)
E E

j1
P(A j )  P  
 Aj 
PROOF:
By u s in g t h e form u la of c on d it ion a l p rob a b ilit y, w e ge t
 Ai  P E  Ai 
P  
E P E 
E
P  Ai   P  
 Ai   Ai 
 P  
E P E 
( By u s in g m u lt ip lic a t ion t h e ore m of p rob a b ilit y)
E
P(Ai )  P  
 Ai   Ai 
P  n (by using theorem oft otalprobability)
E E

j1
P(A j )  P  
 Aj 
Exam ple - 18 : In a t oy fa c t o ry, m a c h in e s A, B, a n d C m a n u fa c t u re
30 %, 35%, a n d 35% of t h e t ot a l t oys re s p e c t ive ly. Of t h e ir ou t p u t 7,
5, a n d 5 p e rc e n t a re d e fe c t ive t oys re s p e c t ive ly. A t oy is d ra w n a t
ra n d om from t h e p rod u c t . If t h e t oy d ra w n is fo u n d t o b e d e fe c t ive ,
w h a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t it is m a n u fa c t u re d b y Ma c h in e B?
5 5 4 7
(A) (B) (C) (D)
16 18 15 15
Solut ion : Le t A1 = [Toy m a n u fa c t u re d b y Ma c h in e A]
A2 = [Toy m a n u fa c t u re d b y Ma c h in e B]
A3 = [Toy m a n u fa c t u re d b y Ma c h in e C]
E = [Toy is d e fe c t ive ]
 30 35 35
P(A1) = , P(A2 )  and P(A 3 ) 
100 100 100
 E 
P   = (Prob a b ilit y t h a t t h e d e fe c t ive t oy m a n u fa c t u re d b y
 A1 
m a c h in e A)
 E  7
P  
 A1  100
 E  5  E  5
Sim ila rly, P    a n d P  
 A2  100  A 3  100
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = Prob a b ilit y t h a t t h e t oy is m a n u fa c t u re d
 A2 
b y Ma c h in e B a n d t u rn s ou t t o b e d e fe c t ive = P  
E 
  E 
P(A2 )  P  
 A2   A2 
P 
E  E   E  E 
P(A1 )  P    P(A 2 )  P    A 3   P  
 A1   A2   A3 

35 5

100 100  5
  
30 7 35 5 35 5  16 
    
100 100 100 100 100 100
Exam ple - 19 : Th re e b oxe s c on t a in 6 w h it e , 4 b la c k; 5
w h it e 6 b la c k, a n d 5 w h it e a n d 5 b la c k b a lls re s p e c t ive ly. Ou t
of t h e s e t h re e b oxe s , on e b ox is s e le c t e d a t ra n d om a n d a
b a ll is d ra w n from it . If t h e b a ll d ra w n is w h it e , fin d t h e
p rob a b ilit y t h a t it is d ra w n from t h e firs t b ox.
21 22 1 7
(1) (2) (3) (4 )
57 57 3 57
Solut ion : Le t A1 = [Firs t b ox is c h os e n ]
A2 = [Se c on d b ox is c h os e n ]
A3 = [Th ird b ox is c h os e n ].
E = Ba ll d ra w n is w h it e .
 1
P(A1) = P(A2 ) = P(A3 ) = .
3
 E  6 E  5 E  5
P   , P    and P  
 A1  10  A2  11  A 3  10
 A1 
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = P  
E 
E 
P[A1 ]  P  
 A1   A1 
P  
E   E  E  E 
P(A1 )  P    P(A2 )  P    P[A 3 ]  P  
 A1   A2   A3 
 1 6

 A1  3 10
P  
 E  1 6  1 5  1 5
3 10 3 11 3 10

6
10 66 22
 
6 5 5 171  57
 
10 11 10
Alt e rnat e Solut ion:
He re , it is give n t h a t a w h it e b a ll is d ra w n from t h e firs t b ox.
6
P (w h it e b a ll from firs t b ox) =
10
5
P (Wh it e b a ll from s e c on d b ox) =
11
5
P (Wh it e b a ll from t h ird b ox) =
10
1
P (Se le c t ion of a b ox) =
3
1 6
 6
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = 3 10 = 6 5 5 =
10 22
1 6 1 5 1 5 + + 57
     10 11 10
3 10 3 11 3 10
EXPECTED VALUE:
Th e c on c e p t of “e xp e c t e d va lu e ” is ve ry im p ort a n t in
p rob a b ilit y. Exp e c t e d va lu e is u s u a lly t a ke n in t o
c on s id e ra t ion w h e n a n e xp e rim e n t is p e rform e d m a n y
t im e s . He re , t h e t im e p e riod d oe s n ’t h old a n y im p ort a n c e
u n le s s or u n t il m e n t ion e d .
Th e c on c e p t of e xp e c t e d va lu e is u s u a lly u s e d in ga m b lin g
s c e n a rios w h e re w e fin d ga in or los s in t h e lon g ru n .
For Exam ple :
Su p p os e a m a n is p e rm it t e d t o t os s a c oin on p a ym e n t of ₹ 2
a n d offe re d ₹ 10 a s a t h e p rize if t h e t h row of c oin re s u lt s in
h e a d a n d offe re d ₹ 0 if t h e t h row of c oin re s u lt s in t a il. Now
h e t h row s a c oin 10 0 0 t im e s . A h e a d w ill a p p e a r w it h a
1
p rob a b ilit y of i.e ., it is e xp e c t e d t o a p p e a r 50 0 t im e s .
2
1
Sim ila rly, a t a il w ill a p p e a r w it h a p rob a b ilit y of i.e ., it is
2
e xp e c t e d t o a p p e a r 50 0 t im e s .
Exp e c t e d va lu e in t h e lo n g ru n = (50 0 × 10 ) – (10 0 0 × 2) = 30 0 0
Ga in p e r t h row = ₹ 3
FORMULA FOR EXPECTED VALUE (EV) :

EV = probabilityof event(E
K
K) × Monetary value asociated with event E K 
Exam ple - 20 :
Ara v a n d Re ya n s h p la ye d a ga m e of c oin (b ia s e d c oin ) on w h ic h
t h e h e a d a p p e a rs in 72% of t h e s it u a t ion . If Ara v is p a id ₹10 p e r
h e a d b y Re ya n s h a n d Re ya n s h is p a id ₹15 p e r t a il b y Ara v, t h e n
h ow m u c h p rofit p e r ga m e w ou ld Ara v e a rn in t h e lon g ru n ?
(1) ₹3 (2) ₹2.251 (3) ₹3.75 (4 ) ₹3.5
72
Solut ion : Prob a b ilit y of h e a d = = 0 .72
100
Prob a b ilit y of t a il = 1– 0 .72 = 0 .28
Exp e c t e d p rofit p e r ga m e = 0 .72 × 10 – 0 .28 × 15
= 7.2 – 4 .2 = ₹3
Exam ple - 21 : In a Ro ya l c a s in o t h e re is a ga m e o f t h row in g o f a
fa ir d ie . A c a s in o o p e ra t or n a m e d Ra d h e p rom is e s t o p a y t h e
c u s t om e rs t w ic e t h e va lu e of t h e n u m b e r s h ow in g u p on t h e d ie
if t h e n u m b e r a p p e a re d is o d d a n d fou r t im e s t h e va lu e of t h e
n u m b e r s h ow in g u p on t h e d ie if t h e n u m b e r a p p e a re d is e ve n .
A c u s t om e r n a m e d Ro y e n t e rs t h e c a s in o a n d is w illin g t o p la y
t h e ga m e of t h row in g o f a fa ir d ie . Wh a t is t h e m a xim u m a m ou n t
t h a t Roy is w illin g t o p a y e a c h t im e t o t h ro w t h e d ie if, in t h e
lon g ru n , h e w a n t s t o m a ke a n a ve ra ge p rofit of ₹8 .5 p e r t h row
of a fa ir d ie ?
(A) ₹ 2.5 (B) ₹3.5 (C) ₹3 (D) ₹2.75
Solut ion : He re , t h e p rob a b ilit y for e a c h of t h e t u rn in g u p is
1 1
i.e ., P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4 ) = P(5) = P(6 ) =
6 6
Th e a m ou n t p a id for d iffe re n t n u m b e rs a re
Wh e n 1 oc c u rs = 2 × 1 = ₹2
Wh e n 2 oc c u rs = 4 × 2 = ₹8
Wh e n 3 oc c u rs = 2 × 3 = ₹6
Wh e n 4 oc c u rs = 4 × 4 = ₹16
Wh e n 5 oc c u rs = 2 × 5 = ₹10
Wh e n 6 oc c u rs = 4 × 6 = ₹24
1 1
Exp e c t e d va lu e = 2 + 8 + 6 +16 +10 + 24 = × 66 = ₹11
6 6
Ma xim u m a m ou n t h e is w illin g t o p a y = 11– 8 .5 = ₹ 2.5.
PRACTICE
EXERCISE
 Le ve l of Diffic ult y - 1
1. Th re e c a rd s a re d ra w n , on e a ft e r t h e o t h e r, w it h ou t
re p la c e m e n t from a p a c k of 52 c a rd s . Wh a t is t h e
p rob a b ilit y t h a t on e is a J a c k, on e is a Kin g, a n d on e is a n
Ac e ?
16 24
(A) (B)
5525 5525
12 8
(C) (D)
5525 5525
Sol.: 1 (A)

st 4
Prob a b ilit y for 1 J a c k =
52
nd 4
Prob a b ilit y for 2 Kin g =
51
rd 
Prob a b ilit y for 3 Ac e =
50
Sin c e , J a c k, Kin g, a n d Ac e c a n b e in a n y ord e r, t h is give s
u s 3! Ca s e s .
4 4 4 16
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y =    3! =
52 51 50 5525
2. Th e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a p e rs on w ill ge t a roa d c on t ra c t is
6
a n d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t h e w ill n ot ge t a p lu m b in g
11
9
c on t ra c t is . If t h e p rob a b ilit y of ge t t in g a t le a s t on e
13
4
c on t ra c t is , w h a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t h e w ill ge t b ot h ?
5
38 39
(A) (B)
715 715
41 37
(C) (D)
715 715
Sol. 2 (A)
Le t Eve n t A = (Pe rs on ge t a roa d c on t ra c t )
Eve n t B = (Pe rs on ge t a p lu m b in g c on t ra c t )
6 9
P(A)  , P(B) 
11 13
9 4 4
P(B)  1   a n d P (A  B) =
13 13 5
Now , P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A  B)
P (A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P (A  B)
6 4 4 390  220  572
P (A  B) =  – =
11 13 5 715
38
P (A  B) =
715
3. Fou r c a rd s a re d ra w n a t ra n d om from a p a c k of 52 c a rd s .
Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a ll of t h e m b e lon g t o t h e s a m e
s u it .
11 11
(A) (B)
5225 4165
11 44
(C) (D)
52 4165
Sol : 3 (D)
52
4 c a rd s c a n b e d ra w n ou t of 52 c a rd s in C4 w a ys .
52
Tot a l ou t c om e s = C4
Now w e n e e d a ll fou r c a rd s t o b e from t h e s a m e s u it . 4
13
c a rd s c a n b e d ra w n ou t of 13 c a rd s in C4 w a ys . Bu t t h e re
a re 4 s u it s for w h ic h t h is c a n b e re p e a t e d .
Fa vou ra b le ou t c om e s = 4 × 13 C4
Favourable outcomes 4  13C 4 44
P(E) =  52 
Total outcomes C4 4165
4 . Th e od d s a ga in s t a n e ve n t a re 4 t o 5 a n d od d s in fa vou r
of a n ot h e r e ve n t a re 3 t o 7. Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t a t
le a s t on e of t h e m oc c u rs .
11 31
(A) (B)
45 45
28 15
(C) (D)
45 31
Sol : 4 (B)
Le t t h e e ve n t s b e A1 a n d A2
od d s a ga in s t A1 a re 4 is t o 5.
5
P(A1 ) 
9
Od d s in fa vou r of A2 a re 3 is t o 7
3
P(A2 ) 
10
P(At le a s t on e ) = 1 – P(n on e of t h e m )
4 7 28
P (Non e of t h e m ) = P(A1 )  P(A2 ) =  
9 10 90
28 62  31 
P (a t le a s t on e ) = 1     
90 90  45 
5. Th e re a re 8 p a t ie n t s , a n d it is kn ow n t h a t e xa c t ly t h re e
of t h e m a re s u ffe rin g from COVID- 19 . Th e y a re t e s t e d on e
b y on e in ra n d om ord e r, t ill a ll t h e COVID- 19 p a t ie n t s a re
id e n t ifie d . Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t on ly t h re e t e s t s a re
re q u ire d .
1 1
(A) (B)
3 45
1 2
(C) (D)
56 53
Sol : 5 (C)
Th e t ot a l n u m b e r of w a ys in w h ic h t h re e p a t ie n t s c a n b e
c h os e n ou t of 8 p a t ie n t s is 8 C3 = 56 w a ys .
On ly t h re e tests a re re q u ire d t o id e n t ify COVID- 19
p a t ie n t s .
Th is c a n b e d on e in on ly on e w a y, w h e n a ll t h e t h re e
COVID- 19 p a t ie n t s , id e n t ifie d in t h e firs t t h re e t e s t s .
1
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = .
56
 Le ve l of Diffic ult y - 2
6 . A p e rs on is kn ow n t o s p e a k t h e t ru t h 5 ou t of 9 t im e s .
He t h row s a d ie a n d re p ort s t h a t it is a t w o. Fin d t h e
p rob a b ilit y t h a t it is a c t u a lly a t w o.
1 2
(A) (B)
5 5
5 6
(C) (D)
9 7
Sol : 6 (A)
Le t A1 = [Tw o oc c u rs ] a n d A2 = [Tw o d oe s n ot oc c u rs ]
E = [p e rs on re p ort s t h a t it is a t w o]
1 5
Now , P(A1) = a n d P(A2 ) =
6 6
E  5
P   = Prob a b ilit y t h a t t h e p e rs on s p e a ks t ru t h =
 A1  9
E 
P   = Prob a b ilit y t h a t t h e p e rs on d oe s n ot s p e a k t ru t h
 A2 
4
=
9
  E 
P(A1 )  P  
 A1 
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y =
 E  E 
P(A1 )  P    P(A2 )  P  
 A1   A2 
1 5

= 6 9
1 5 5 4
  
6 9 6 9
5 5
= 54  54
5 20 25

54 54 54
1
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y =
5
7 . A p e rs on t h row s a d ie . If t h e n u m b e r t u rn e d u p on t h e
d ie is e ve n , t h e n h e re c e ive s fou r t im e s a s m a n y ru p e e s
a s t h e n u m b e r t h a t t u rn s u p on t h e d ie . If it is od d , t h e n
h e re c e ive s five t im e s a s m a n y ru p e e s a s t h e n u m b e r t h a t
t u rn s u p on t h e d ie . Wh a t w ill b e h is e xp e c t e d va lu e p e r
t h row in t h e lon g ru n ?
(A) ₹ 8 .5 (B) ₹ 12.5
(C) ₹ 15.5 (D) ₹ 17.5
Sol : 7 (C)
1
He re , t h e p rob a b ilit y for e a c h of t h e t u rn in g u p is i.e .,
6
1
P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4 ) = P(5) = P(6 ) =
6
Am ou n t p a id for d iffe re n t n u m b e rs a re
Wh e n 1 oc c u rs = 5 × 1 = ₹5
Wh e n 2 oc c u rs = 4 × 2 = ₹8
Wh e n 3 oc c u rs = 5 × 3 = ₹15
Wh e n 4 oc c u rs = 4 × 4 = ₹16
Wh e n 5 oc c u rs = 5 × 5 = ₹25
Wh e n 6 oc c u rs = 4 × 6 = ₹24
Exp e c t e d va lu e p e r t h row in t h e lon g ru n
1 1
= ሾ5 + 8 + 15 + 16 + 25 + 24ሿ= × 93 = ₹15.5
6 6
8 . Tw o frie n d s , Ad a m a n d Bra t , t h row a d ie a lt e rn a t e ly t ill
on e of t h e m ge t s a ‘on e ’ a n d w in s t h e ga m e . Fin d t h e
p rob a b ilit y of w in n in g of Ad a m , if it is give n t h a t Ad a m
b e gin s .
5 6
(A) (B)
11 11
4 7
(C) (D)
11 11
Sol : 8 (B)
Le t Eve n t [A] = Ad a m ge t s a ‘on e ’.
Eve n t [R] = Bra t ge t s a ‘on e ’.
1 1 5 5
Now , P(A) = , P(R) = , P(A)  a n d P(R) 
6 6 6 6
Ad a m w in s if h e t h row s a ‘on e ’ in 1s t or 3 rd or 5 t h ……
t h row s .
1
Cas e - I : Prob a b ilit y of Ad a m w in n in g in firs t t h row P(A)=
6
Cas e - II : Prob a b ilit y of Ad a m w in n in g in t h ird t h row
= P(A)  P(R)  P(A)
2
5 5 1 5 1
=   =   
6 6 6 6 6
Cas e - III : Prob a b ilit y of Ad a m w in n in g in t h e fift h t h row
= P(A)  P(R)  P(A)  P(R)  P(A)
4
5 5 5 5 1 5 1
=     =   
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
He n c e , t h e p rob a b ilit y of Ad a m w in n in g
2 4
1 5 1 5 1
         ..........
6 6 6 6 6
1
6 6  a a a 
   a   2  .................. 
5
2
11 
 r r 1  r 
1  
6
6
He n c e , p rob a b ilit y of Ad a m w in n in g = .
11
9 . If t h re e s w it c h e s (K1), (K2 ), a n d (K3 ) h a ve re s p e c t ive ly
6 0 %, 4 5% a n d 8 0 % c h a n c e s of w orkin g. Fin d t h e
p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e c irc u it w ill w ork.

98 27 64 61
(A) 125
(B) 125
(C) 125
(D) 125
Sol : 9 (B)
Explanat ion:
Le t Eve n t A = K1 w orks
Eve n t B = K2 w orks
Eve n t C = K3 w orks
60 45 80
P(A)  , P(B)  a n d P(C) 
100 100 100
We c a n c le a rly s e e t h a t , c u rre n t flow s t h rou gh t h e c irc u it
if s w it c h e s K1, K2 a n d K3 w ork t oge t h e r.
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y= P(A) × P(B) × P(C)
60 45 80 27
   
100 100 100 125
10 . A c om b in a t ion loc k on a s u it c a s e h a s 4 w h e e ls , e a c h
la b e lle d w it h n in e d igit s from 1 t o 9 . To op e n t h e loc k a
p a rt ic u la r s e q u e n c e of fou r d igit s is re q u ire d , w it h n o
re p e a t s . Wh a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y of a p e rs on gu e s s in g t h e
righ t c om b in a t ion ?
24 1
(A) 3024
(B) 3024
1 24
(C) 6561
(D) 6561
Sol : 10 (B)
Explanat ion:
Su p p os e ,
A1 Eve n t = 1s t w h e e l oc c u p ie s t h e c orre c t p os it ion .
A2 Eve n t = IIn d w h e e l oc c u p ie s t h e c orre c t p os it ion .
A3 Eve n t = IIIrd w h e e l oc c u p ie s t h e c orre c t p os it ion .
A4 Eve n t = IVt h w h e e l oc c u p ie s t h e c orre c t p os it ion .
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = P (A1  A2  A3  A4 )
 A2   A3   A4 
= P(A1 )  P    P    P 
 A1   A1  A 2   A1  A 2  A 3 
1 1 1 1  1 
=    = 
9 8 7 6  3024 
 Le ve l of Diffic ult y - 3
11. In d ia ’s t h re e p op u la r c rit ic s re vie w a b ook. Od d s in fa vou r
of p os it ive re vie w of t h e b ook a re 4 : 3, 3 : 2 a n d 6 : 5
re s p e c t ive ly for t h re e c rit ic s . Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e
m a jorit y give s p os it ive re vie w for t h e b ook.
223 162
(A) 385
(B) 385
235 234
(C) (D) 385
385
Sol : 11 (D)
Explanat ion:
Su p p os e , Eve n t A = Pos it ive re vie w of Book b y firs t c rit ic
Eve n t B = Pos it ive re vie w of Book b y s e c on d c rit ic
Eve n t C = Pos it ive re vie w of Book b y t h ird c rit ic
4 3 6
P(A)  , P(B)  a n d P(C) 
7 5 11

To fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e m a jorit y a re in fa vou r of

t h e b ook. Th is h a p p e n s on ly if a t le a s t t w o re vie w it
fa vou ra b ly.
Cas e - I :
Is t ga ve p os it ive re vie w , s e c on d ga ve p os it ive re vie w a n d
t h ird ga ve n e ga t ive re vie w .
4 3 5 60
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = P(A)  P(B) P(C) =   
7 5 11 385
Cas e - II :
Is t ga ve p os it ive re vie w , s e c on d ga ve n e ga t ive re vie w a n d
t h ird ga ve p os it ive re vie w .
4 2 6 48
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)=   
7 5 11 385
Cas e - III :
Is t ga ve n e ga t ive re vie w , s e c on d ga ve p os it ive re vie w a n d
t h ird ga ve p os it ive re vie w .
3 3 6 54
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)=   
7 5 11 385
Cas e - IV : All fa vou rs
4 3 6 72
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = P(A) × P(B) × P(C) =   
7 5 11 385
60 48 54 72 234
Tot a l p rob a b ilit y =    =
385 385 385 385 385
12. If fou r d ic e a re t h row n s im u lt a n e ou s ly, w h a t is t h e
p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e s u m of t h e n u m b e rs is e xa c t ly 19 ?
7 9
(A) (B)
162 162
11 13
(C) (D)
162 162
Sol : 12 (A)
Tot a l ou t c om e s = 6 n = 6 4 = 129 6
Re q u ire d c om b in a t ion for t h e s u m b e in g 19 a re = (6 , 6 , 6 ,
1) (6 , 6 , 5, 2) (6 , 6 , 4 , 3) (6 , 5, 5, 3) (6 , 5, 4 , 4 ) (5, 5, 5, 4 )
Re q u ire d n u m b e r of a rra n ge m e n t s for e a c h c a s e =
4!
6, 6, 6, 1    4
3!
4!
6, 6, 5, 2  = =12
2!
 4!
6, 6, 4, 3 = =12
2!
4!
6, 5, 5, 3 = =12
2!
4!
6, 5, 4, 4  = =12
2!
4!
5, 5, 5, 4  = = 4
3!
Fa vou ra b le ou t c om e s = 56
56 7
Re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y = =
1296 162
13. Th e re a re t w o b a gs . Th e firs t b a g c on t a in s 6 w h it e a n d
4 b la c k b a lls a n d t h e s e c on d b a g c on t a in s 2 w h it e a n d 3
b la c k b a lls . Tw o b a lls a re d ra w n a t ra n d om from t h e firs t
b a g a n d a re p u t in t o t h e s e c on d b a g w it h ou t n ot ic in g t h e ir
c olou r, t h e n t w o b a lls a re d ra w n from t h e s e c on d b a g.
Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e b a lls a re w h it e a n d b la c k .
191 165
(A) (B)
315 191
73 176
(C) (D)
191 315
Sol : 13 (D)
A w h it e a n d a b la c k b a ll c a n b e d ra w n from t h e s e c on d
b a g in t h re e w a ys .
(1) Wh e n 2 b la c k b a lls a re d ra w n from 1s t b a g t o t h e IIn d
b a g a n d t h e n d ra w in g a w h it e a n d a b la c k b a ll from t h e
s e c on d b a g.
(2) Wh e n on e b la c k a n d on e w h it e b a ll is d ra w n from 1s t
b a g t o IIn d b a g a n d t h e n d ra w in g a w h it e a n d a b la c k b a ll
from t h e s e c on d b a g.
(3) Wh e n 2 w h it e b a lls a re d ra w n from 1s t b a g t o IIn d b a g
a n d t h e n d ra w in g a w h it e a n d a b la c k b a ll from t h e s e c on d
b a g.
Su p p os e , Eve n t A = Tw o b la c k b a lls a re d ra w n from 1s t b a g.
Eve n t B = on e b la c k a n d on e w h it e b a ll d ra w n from 1s t b a g
Eve n t C = Tw o w h it e b a lls a re d ra w n from 1s t b a g.
E = a w h it e a n d a b la c k b a ll is d ra w in g from 2 n d b a g.
4
C2 6 2
P(A)  10  
C 2 45 15
 4 6
C1  C1 4  6 8
P(B)  10  
C2 45 15
6
C2 15 1
P(C)  10  
C2 45 3
5 2
E
  C  C1 5  2 10
P   7 1
 
A C2 21 21
4
E  C1  3C1 4  3 4
P   7  
B  C2 21 7
3 4
E
  C  C1 3  4 4
P   7 1
 
C C2 21 7
 E E E
Tot a l p rob a b ilit y  P(A)  P    P(B) P    P(C)  P  
A B C
2 10 8 4 1 4 4 32 4 176
=      =   =
15 21 15 7 3 7 63 105 21 315
14 . On e d a y My frie n d Pop lu b ou gh t a p a c k of 52 c a rd s .
Bu t u n fort u n a t e ly, a c a rd from a p a c k of 52 c a rd s is los t .
From t h e re m a in in g c a rd s of t h e p a c k. Tw o c a rd s a re
d ra w n a n d a re fou n d t o b e s p a d e s . Fin d t h e p rob a b ilit y of
t h e m is s in g c a rd t o b e a s p a d e .
11 10
(A) (B)
52 51
12 11
(C) (D)
51 50
Sol : 14 (D)
Explanat ion:
Su p p os e , Eve n t A = Mis s in g c a rd is a h e a rt c a rd .
Eve n t B = Mis s in g c a rd is a s p a d e c a rd .
Eve n t C = Mis s in g c a rd is a c lu b c a rd .
Eve n t D = Mis s in g c a rd is a d ia m on d c a rd .
a n d E = Dra w in g t w o s p a d e c a rd s from t h e re m a in in g
c a rd s .
13 1
P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = P(D) = 
52 4
 E 
P   = Prob a b ilit y of d ra w in g t w o s p a d e c a rd s give n t h a t on e
A
13
C2
h e a rt c a rd is m is s in g. = 51
C2

E
P   = Prob a b ilit y of d ra w in g t w o s p a d e c a rd s give n t h a t on e
B
12
C2
s p a d e c a rd is m is s in g = 51
C2
13 13
E
  C2 E C2
Sim ila rly, P    51 a n d P    51
C C2 D C2
By Ba ye ’s Th e ore m
B 
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y = P  
E 
E 
P(B) P  
B 

E  E  E  E 
P(A)  P    P(B)  P    P(C)  P    P(D) P  
A B  C  D 
1 12 C2
 51
4 C2
=
1 13 C2 1 12 C2 1 13
C2 1 13
C2
 51   51   51
  51
4 C2 4 C2 4 C2 4 C2
 66 66 11
=  =
78  66  78  78 300 50
11
He n c e , t h e re q u ire d p rob a b ilit y is .
50
15. Of p e op le h a vin g COVID- 19 , 8 0 % of t h e t e s t d e t e c t t h e
d is e a s e b u t 20 % go u n d e t e c t e d . Of p e op le fre e of COVID- 19 ,
9 9 % of t h e t e s t a re J u d ge d COVID- ve b u t 1% a re d ia gn os e d
a s s h ow in g COVID+ve . From a la rge p op u la t ion of w h ic h on ly
0 .1% h a ve COVID, on e p e rs on is s e le c t e d a t ra n d om for t h e
COVID- 19 Te s t , a n d t h e p a t h ologis t re p ort s h im / h e r a s
COVID+ve . Wh a t is t h e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e p e rs on a c t u a lly
h a s COVID- 19 ?
70 93 80 102
(A) (B) (C) (D)
1079 1079 1079 1079
Sol : 15 (C)
Explanat ion:
Le t Eve n t A = Th e p e rs on s e le c t e d is a c t u a lly h a vin g Covid .
Eve n t B = Th e p e rs on s e le c t e d is n ot h a vin g Covid .
Eve n t E = Th e p e rs on ’s Covid t e s t is d ia gn os e d p os it ive .
Give n ,
0.1
P(A) = 0 .1% =  0.001
100
P(B) = 1 – 0 .0 0 1 = 0 .9 9 9
Th e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e p e rs on t e s t e d a s COVID+ve give n
t h a t h e / s h e is a c t u a lly h a vin g Covid .
 E  80
P    0.8
 A  100

Th e p rob a b ilit y t h a t t h e p e rs on t e s t e d a s Covid +ive give n

𝐸 1
t h a t h e / s h e is n ot h a vin g Covid . 𝑃 ቂ ቃ= = 0.01
𝐵 100
 E
P(A)  P  
A  A
P
Re q u ire d Prob a b ilit y =   =
 E  P(A)  P  E   P(B)  P  E 
   B 
A
E
P(A)  P  
A 80
 =
E  E  1079
P(A)  P    P(B)  P  
A B 