Statistics and Probability

STATISTICS
CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Measure of Central Tendency
Mean – The mean sometimes called the arithmetic mean is popularly
known as the average. It is the sum of scores divided by the number of
cases.
Median – The median is derived from the latin word medius, meaning
middle. It is the middle number of a set of numbers arranged in numerical
order
Mode – The mode is the middle number which occurs most frequent in a
given distribution.

Situation Given the data set 4,3,3,4,4
a. What is the mean?
b. What is the median?
c. What is the mode?

Measure of Dispersion
-It helps us to know the spread of data set
Range = Largest value – smallest value
Standard Deviation (denoted by S) – is the most used

measure of dispersion. The value of the standard
deviation tells how closely the values of a data set are
clustered around the mean. Lower standard deviation
means that the data set are spread over a relatively
smaller range around the mean.
Variance – It is the square of the standard deviation.
Coefficient of variation – expresses standard

deviation as percentage of the mean

Situation
From the following data:
21, 13, 28, 50, 68, 56, 21, 32, 45, 43,
15
1. Find the mean value.

2. Find the median.
3. Find the mode.
4. Find the range.
5. Find the variance.
6. Find the Standard Deviation.

Measure of Position
A. Quartiles
B. Deciles
C. Percentiles

Situation Given the data set (50, 5, 12, 13, 15, 18, 22, 6)
a. Determine the first quartile.
b. Determine the second quartile.
c. Determine the third quartile.

Solve for the following:
a.) First, Second, Third Quartiles, Interquartile Range,

and quartile deviation.
b.) 35th, 65th , and 50th percentile
c.) 1st and 4th decile.

From the following tabulation, compute for the correlation coefficient.
x 80 84 88 92 98 104
Y 4 8 10 8 12 14

PROBABILITY

FUNDAMENTAL
PRINCIPLE OF
COUNTING

PERMUTATIONS
AND
COMBINATIONS

Permutations and Combinations
Permutations
Permutation of a set of objects is the arrangement
in a definite order in a straight line.
For example, the permutation of the three letters a,b,c taken

two at a time are: ab,ac,bc,ca, and cb.
Combinations
Combination is a grouping of all part of a set of
objects without regard to the arrangement of the objects
selected. Letters abc, combination of two letters taken two at
a time are ab,ac, and bc.

Formulas
P = n(n-1)(n-2) … (n-r+1) =
n r
Permutations where some things are alike …

P = where n1 + n2 + n3 + … = n
Circular Permutations
-the number of ways in which n different things
may be arranged a circle (n-1)! ways.

Practice Problems in Permutations
1. Evaluate each symbol
a. 15P2
b. 11P9
c. 10P6
d. 9P9

2. How many different number of two different
digits can be formed from the digits 2, 4, 6, and
8.

3. How many different symbols, each symbol
consisting of 3 letters in succession, can be
formed from the letters a,b,c,x,y, and z. If
a. No letters may be repeated in the same symbol
b. Repetitions are allowed

4. How many permutations can be made of the letters
in the word Cincinnati taken at all a time?

5. In how many ways can 6 persons be arranged on 6
seats.
a.) arrange in straight line
b.) arrange in circular manner

Combinations
is a mathematical technique that determines the number of
possible arrangements in a collection of items where the
order of the selection does not matter. In combinations,
you can select the items in any order. Combinations can
be confused with permutations.

Combinations of n different things taken r at a time
C = = =
n r
Combination of different things taken any number at a time

The total number of combinations C of n different things taken
1,2,3 … n at a time is
C = 2n -1

Example Problems in Combinations
1. Evaluate each symbol
a. 8C2
b. 12C8
c. 20C17

2. In how many ways can a committee of 6 people be formed

from a group of 11 people?

3. How many triangles can be formed by joining the 6

vertices of a hexagon, the vertices of each triangle
being on the hexagon?

Probability
-is an arrangement of data which shows the frequency of
different values or group of values of variable.
Basic concepts and application

The process of flipping a coin, rolling a die, or
drawing a card from an ordinary deck of cards refers to a
probability experiments, and also defined as a chance
process that leads to well defined results called outcome.

Outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment, while sample space is
the set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
Sample can be represent using a Venn diagram

or tree diagram.
Venn diagram – a picture that deficits all

possible outcomes for an experiment.
Tree diagram – is a device consisting of

line segments emanating from a starting point
and in its outcome point and it determines
all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.c

Probability – is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event
Impossible event – event that cannot occur
and has zero probability
Sure event – If an event that is certain to
occur has a probability equal to 1

Four basic probability rules
1. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for
an experiment is always 1.
For an experiment
3. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
4. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.

Three conceptual approaches to Probability
1. Classical Probability – it assumes that all

outcomes in the sample space are equally
likely to occur.
P(E) =

2. Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability – is the type

of probability that uses frequency distribution based on
observations to determine numerical probabilities of events.

3. Subjective Probability – is the probability

assigned to an event based subjective
judgement, experience, information, and belief.
For example, a sportswriter may say that there
is 90% probability that San Sebastian Stags
will win in the NCAA championships.
Another example, is when physician may say that
, on the basis of his diagnosis, there is 60%
chance that the patient will recover.

Independent, dependent, Mutually Exclusive
Events
Independent (each event is not affected by

other events)
Independent events, meaning each event is not

affected by any other events.
For example, a coin does not ”know” that it

came up heads before, each toss of a coin is a
perfect isolated thing.
Example: You toss a coin three times and it

comes up “Heads” each time, what is the chance
that the next toss will also be a “Head”?

Dependent Events (also called “Conditional Events”,
where an event is affected by other events), which
means they can be affected by previous events.
Example: Drawing 2 cards from a deck
After taking one card from the deck there are less
cards available, so the probabilities change!

Mutually excusive events can’t happen at the same
time.
Examples:
 Turning left and turning right are mutually
exclusive ( you can’t do both at the same time)
 Tossing a coin: Heads and tails are mutually
exclusive
 Cards: Kings and aces are mutually exclusive
What is not a mutually exclusive events?

 Turning left and scratching your head can happen
at the same time.
 Kings and hearts, because we can have a king of
hearts.

Theorem If the probabilities of occurrence of a set of n
independent events are p1, p2, …. Pn, then the probability that
all of the set of events will occur is p = p1p2….pn
This theorem follow directly from the fundamental principle.

Consider two events whose probabilities for success are
p1 = and p2 =
The total number of ways in which both events may succeed is

m1m2, while the total number of ways these evets can occur is
N1N2. Hence the total probabilities of the occurrence of both
events is
P = = p1p2

Fundamental concepts
Examples:
1. Suppose that a pair of dice is thrown, what is the
probability that a total of 8 shows?

Examples:
2. What is the probability of drawing 6 white balls from a
box containing 9 white, 4 red, and 3 blue balls?

Examples:
3. What is the probability that the sum of 7 appears in a
single throw of dice?

Ten books consisting of 5 different mathematics books,
3 different physics books, and 2 different chemistry
books are placed in a bookcase at random. What is the
probability that the books each kind are all together?

BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY

Binomial Distribution Probability
- The likelihood of observing a certain
outcome when performing a series of tests
for which there are only two possible
outcomes, such as getting heads or tails in a
coin toss.
Examples:
Tossing a coin, True or False, Win or Loss,
and etc.

Binomial Distribution Examples
As we already know, binomial distribution gives
the possibility of a different set of outcomes. In
real life, the concept is used for:
• Finding the quantity of raw and used • By using the YES/ NO survey, we can
materials while making a product. check whether the number of persons
views the particular channel.
• Taking a survey of positive and negative
reviews from the public for any specific • To find the number of male and female
product or place. employees in an organization.
• The number of votes collected by a
candidate in an election is counted
based on 0 or 1 probability.

Properties of Binomial Distribution
The properties of the binomial distribution are:
• There are two possible outcomes: true or false, success or failure,

yes or no.
• There is ‘n’ number of independent trials or a fixed number of n

times repeated trials.
• The probability of success or failure remains the same for each trial.
• Only the number of success is calculated out of n independent trials.
• Every trial is an independent trial, which means the outcome of one

trial does not affect the outcome of another trial.

Where:
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n
trials
p = probability of success in 1 trial
q = probability of failure in 1 trial

Problem If a coin is tossed 5 times, find the
probability of:
(a) Exactly 2 heads
(b) At least 4 heads.

NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY

In probability theory and statistics, the Normal
Distribution, also called the Gaussian
Distribution, is the most significant continuous
probability distribution. Sometimes it is also
called a bell curve. A large number of random
variables are either nearly or exactly represented
by the normal distribution, in every physical
science and economics. Furthermore, it can be
used to approximate other probability
distributions, therefore supporting the usage of
the word ‘normal ‘as in about the one, mostly
used.

POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY

Poisson Distribution Probability
-A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability
distribution. It gives the probability of an event
happening a certain number of times (k)
within a given interval of time or space.
The Poisson distribution has only one

parameter, λ (lambda), which is the mean
number of events.
Examples:
Road accidents, traffics, company productions,
marketing and etc.

Problem Suppose 2% of the items made by the
factory are defective. Find the probability that 3
defective items in a sample of 100 items.

EXPONENTIAL
DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY

Exponential Probability Distribution
𝞵 = mean value
P =probability
k = data
R(t) = Reliability function

Problem CE Board May 2012
The time taken by a terminal fee collector to collect terminal fees
from passengers entering NAIA is an exponential distribution
with a mean of 23 seconds. What is the probability that a
random passenger will be processed in 25 seconds or more (that
is, will take more than 25 seconds)?

HYPERGEOMETRIC
DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY

Hypergeometric Distribution Probability
-The hypergeometric distribution is a discrete
probability distribution that calculates the
likelihood an event happens k times in n trials
when you are sampling from a small
population without replacement.

Hypergeometric Distribution Probability
-This distribution is like the binomial distribution
except for the sampling without replacement
aspect. When you sample without replacement,
the probabilities change with each subsequent
trial. Conversely, the binomial distribution
assumes the chances remain constant over the
trials.
For instance, when you draw an ace from a deck

of cards, the probability decreases for drawing
another ace on the next draw because the deck
has fewer aces.

Examples
The hypergeometric distribution can answer
the following questions. What is the probability
of getting:
• Two red candies when we draw five candies

from a jar containing five red candies and 10
white candies.
• Drawing five cards of the same suit from a
regular deck of cards.
• 8 women on a jury of 13 people when
drawing randomly from a jury pool of 50
people evenly split between men and
women?
Formula of Hypergeometric Distribution Probability
Where:
K is the number of successes in the

population
k is the number of observed
successes
N is the population size
n is the number of draws


Statistics and Probability

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Statistics and Probability

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

STATISTICS

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Range = Largest value – smallest value

Standard Deviation (denoted by S) – is the most used

Variance – It is the square of the standard deviation.

Coefficient of variation – expresses standard

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

1. Find the mean value.

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

a.) First, Second, Third Quartiles, Interquartile Range,

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

For example, the permutation of the three letters a,b,c taken

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Permutations where some things are alike …

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Combination of different things taken any number at a time

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

2. In how many ways can a committee of 6 people be formed

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

3. How many triangles can be formed by joining the 6

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Basic concepts and application

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Sample can be represent using a Venn diagram

Venn diagram – a picture that deficits all

Tree diagram – is a device consisting of

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

1. Classical Probability – it assumes that all

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

2. Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability – is the type

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

3. Subjective Probability – is the probability

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Independent (each event is not affected by

Independent events, meaning each event is not

For example, a coin does not ”know” that it

Example: You toss a coin three times and it

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Example: Drawing 2 cards from a deck

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

What is not a mutually exclusive events?

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

This theorem follow directly from the fundamental principle.

The total number of ways in which both events may succeed is

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

CIVIL ENGINEERING STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY