CHAPTER 5

Probability: What Are

the Chances?
5.1
Randomness, Probability,
and Simulation

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition

Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore

Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers

 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 INTERPRET probability as a long-run relative frequency.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 2

 The Idea of Probability
Mrs. Venneman thinks she is a pretty good free throw
shooter. How many free throws would you like to see Mrs.
Venneman shoot before you could be confident guessing her
free throw percentage? We’ll watch
Mrs. Venneman shoot free throws. When you are confident,
make a guess at her free throw percentage.

As each shot is attempted, keep track of the number of made free throws and
the total number of shots attempted in the table below. When you think you
know Mrs. Venneman’s true free throw percentage, stop recording the shots.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 3

 The Idea of Probability
1. What do you think Mrs. Venneman’s true free throw percentage is?

2. Sketch the graph displaying the proportion of made free throws.

3. How could you make your guess more accurate?

4. Mrs. Venneman has a _______% probability of making a free throw.

Interpret this probability.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 4

 The Idea of Probability
The
The probability
probability of
of any
any outcome
outcome of of aa chance
chance process
process is
is aa number
number
between
between 00 and
and 11 that
that describes
describes the
the proportion
proportion ofof times
times the
the
outcome
outcome would
would occur
occur in
in aa very
very long
long series
series of
of repetitions.
repetitions.
Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run, but has a regular and predictable pattern
in the long run.
The law of large numbers says that if we observe more and more repetitions of any chance
process, the proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches a single value.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 5

 Probability Examples
1. Pedro drives the same route to work on Monday through Friday. His route
includes one traffic light. According to the local traffic department, there is a
55% probability that the light will be red when Pedro reaches the light. Interpret
the probability.

2. Probability is a measure of how likely an outcome is to occur. Match one of

the probabilities that follow with each statement.
0 0.01 0.3 0.6 0.99 1

a) This outcome is impossible. It can never occur.

b) This outcome is certain. It will occur on every trial.
c) This outcome is very unlikely, but it will occur once in a while in a long
sequence of trials.
d) This outcome will occur more often than not.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 6

 Probability Examples
3. A husband and wife decide to have children until they have at least one child
of each sex. The couple has had seven girls in a row. Their doctor assures them
that they are much more likely to have a boy next. Explain why the doctor is
wrong.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 7

 Myths About Randomness

Toss a coin six times and record heads(H) or tails(T) on each toss. Which of
the following outcomes is more probable?

HTHTTH TTTHHH

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 8

 Myths About Randomness
The idea of probability seems straightforward. However, there are
several myths of chance behavior we must address.

The myth of short-run regularity: The idea of probability is that

randomness is predictable in the long run. Our intuition tries to tell us random
phenomena should also be predictable in the short run. However, probability
does not allow us to make short-run predictions.
Example: “hot streaks” in sports

The myth of the “law of averages”: Probability tells us random behavior

evens out in the long run. Future outcomes are not affected by past behavior.
That is, past outcomes do not influence the likelihood of individual outcomes
occurring in the future.
Example: If you flip and coin and get 5 tails in a row, the next one
should be a head because they have to balance out.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 9

 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 INTERPRET probability as a long-run relative frequency.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 10

 Homework

Pg. 300-301

#1, 3, 7, 9, 11

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 11

 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 USE simulation to MODEL chance behavior.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 12

 Simulation
Are Soda Contests True?

Pepsi ran a promo contest for their 20 oz. bottles of soda. Some of the caps
said, “Please try again!” while others said, “You’re a winner!” Pepsi
advertised the promotion with the slogan “1 in 6 wins a prize.” Mrs. Gallas’
statistics class wonders if the company’s claim is true. To find out, all 30
students in the class go to the store, and each buys one 20-ounce bottle of the
soda. Two of the 30 students get caps that say “You’re a winner!”

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 13

 Simulation
1. How many winners would you expect to get out of a class of 30? Is it
guaranteed?

Does this result give convincing evidence that the company’s 1-in-6 claim is
inaccurate? We will perform a simulation to help answer this question. We
will assume Pepsi is telling the truth. If they are telling the truth, what is the
probability of getting 2 or fewer winners in a class of 30 purely by chance?
Let’s find out.

2. What could we use to model a 1/6 probability? Assign certain

outcomes to “Losers” and “Winners”. List them below.

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 Simulation
3. Roll your die 30 times to imitate the process of the students in Mrs. Gallas’
statistics class buying their sodas.
How many of them won a prize?
4. Repeat steps 1 and 2. How many won a prize this time? _____
5. Plot the number of prize winners for each trial of 30 to the dot plot on the
board. (2 dots)
6. Sketch the class dot plot below.
7. What percent of the time did Mrs. Gallas’ statistics class get two or fewer
prizes, just by chance? ________________
8. Does it seem plausible that the company is telling the truth but that the class
just got unlucky? Or in other words, do we have convincing evidence that
Pepsi is lying?

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 15

 Simulation
The imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the
situation, is called a simulation.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 16

 Golden Ticket Parking Lottery
At a local high school, 95 students have permission to park on campus. Each
month, the student council holds a "golden ticket parking lottery" at a school
assembly. The two lucky winners are given reserved parking spots next to the
school's main entrance.

Last month, the winning tickets were drawn by a student council member
from the AP Statistics class. When both golden tickets went to members of
that same class, some people thought the lottery had been rigged.

There are 28 students in the AP Statistics class, all of whom are eligible to
park on campus. Design and carry out a simulation to decide whether it's
plausible that the lottery was carried out fairly.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 17

 Golden Ticket Parking Lottery
Students
AP Statistics Class 01-28
Other
Skip numbers from 96-00
Labels Reading across row 139 in Table D,
look at pairs of digits until you see two
different labels from 01-95. Record
29-95 whether or not both winners are
members of the AP Statistics class.

55 | 58 89 | 94 04 | 70 70 | 84 10|98|43 56 | 35 69 | 34 48 | 39 45 | 17
X|X X|X ✓|X X|X ✓|Sk|X X|X X|X X|X X|✓
No No No No No No No No No

19 | 12 97|51|32 58 | 13 04 | 84 51 | 44 72 | 32 18 | 19 40|00|36 00|24|28

✓|✓ Sk|X|X X|✓ ✓|X X|X X|X ✓|✓ X|Sk|X Sk|✓|✓
Yes No No No No No Yes No Yes

Based on 18 repetitions of our simulation, both winners came from the AP Statistics
class 3 times, so the probability is estimated as 16.67%.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 18

 Simulation
The imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the
situation, is called a simulation.

Performing a Simulation
State: Ask a question of interest about some chance process.
Plan: Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one
repetition of the process. Tell what you will record at the end of
each repetition.
Do: Perform many repetitions of the simulation.
Conclude: Use the results of your simulation to answer the
question of interest.

We can use physical devices, random numbers (e.g. Table D), and
technology to perform simulations.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 19

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 20
The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 21
 Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 USE simulation to MODEL chance behavior.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 22

 Homework

Pg. 301-304

#15, 17, 19, 23, 25, 31-36

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 23