TO: FROM:

Interested Parties Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Jessica Paulson Grove Insight, Ltd. Recent Polling in NH-01 Shows Carol Shea-Porter Running Ahead of Frank Guinta August 14, 2012

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This analysis is based on 400 interviews among likely 2012 general election voters in New Hampshires 1st Congressional District. The survey was conducted August 7-9, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher. Shea-Porter starts with a lead over Republican incumbent Frank Guinta In a poll just completed, Carol Shea-Porter holds a lead over incumbent Republican Frank Guinta. Shea-Porter receives 45% of the vote compared to 39% for Guinta. Shea-Porters support is also If the election for U.S. Congress were being more intense, with 34% indicating they are very held today for whom would you vote? certain they will be voting for her, as compared to 26% who say they are very certain they will Shea-Porter 45% vote for Guinta. Guinta 39%
Undecided Kelly 7% 9%

Shea-Porter is also better liked than her opponent Shea-Porter is well-liked by a plurality of voters in NH-01. Over four in 10 (43%) say they have favorable impressions of her. On the other hand, the Congressmans job performance ratings are net negative (35% positive; 57% negative). In sum, New Hampshires 1st Congressional District represents an ideal pick-up opportunity for Democrats as we head towards the November General Election. It features a well-liked challenger in Carol Shea-Porter, against a weak Republican incumbent.