POLLING

MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Survey of Likely Voters Statewide in PA CD12
Wenzel Strategies is an opinion research company established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. It serves clients nationwide in politics, media, non-profit, corporate, and government. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters in PA CD12, regarding the November election. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-24, 2012, and included 750 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.55 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely voters in Pennsylvanias 12th Congressional District shows Republican challenger Keith Rothfus with a small lead over incumbent Democrat Mark Critz, 44% to 39%, with 17% yet undecided in the race. Partisan voters in this evenly-divided district in southwestern Pennsylvania are not completely sold on their partys candidate as about 30% of both Democrats and Republicans are not supporting their partys nominee for Congress at least not yet. Critz wins just 70% support among Democrats, and Rothfus is winning 71% support among Republicans. Rothfus enjoys a significant lead among independent voters, winning 54% support, compared to 28% of independents who support Critz. Rothfus also maintains a small advantage in favorability, compared to Critz. While 50% hold a favorable opinion of Rothfus, just 44% said the same about Critz. Also, 39% said they held an unfavorable opinion of Critz, compared to just 31% who harbor unfavorable views of Rothfus. There is a significant well of discontent across the district. Just 31% said they think things in general in the area are headed in the right direction, while 60% said they think things are off on the wrong track. This is a sentiment rather common among voters in this region of the country, previous Wenzel Strategies polling has shown, and it is likely contributing to the difficulties Critz is facing in the race this fall.

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