Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 7 July 2014

Political and security risk updates


Africa: Libyan governent resues control over eastern oil terinals after
agreeent !it" rebels#
Americas: Juan $arlos %arela inaugurated as ne! president of Panaa#
Asia and Pacific: $"inese and &out" 'orean presidents eet for fift" tie during (i
Jinping)s official state visit to &out" 'orea#
Europe: *orer *renc" President +icolas &arko,y placed under investigation for
allegedly perverting t"e course of -ustice#
Middle East: Protests and bob blasts ark one.year anniversary of ilitary coup in
/gypt t"at ousted t"e 0usli Brot"er"ood#
Polar regions: 1ussian bobers 2test) $anada)s ilitary readiness#
3frica
Libyan government resumes control over eastern oil terminals after agreement
with rebels
4"e Libyan governent announced an end to t"e country5s oil crisis on 2 July after
resuing control over t"e eastern terinals of 1a)s Lanuf and &idra6 !"ic" !ere
sei,ed by rebels last year in a bid to secure greater regional autonoy# 3t a -oint
ne!s conference !it" Libya5s acting Prie 0inister 3bdulla" al.4"ani6 rebel leader
7bra"i Jad"ran described t"e arrangeent as a gesture of good!ill#
4"e terinals "ave a cobined capacity of around 8006000 barrels of crude oil per
day6 accounting for a t"ird of Libya5s average oil capacity before t"e blockade#
3lt"oug" tec"nical delays could continue to affect e9ports6 t"e announceent "as
already pus"ed crude oil prices to t"eir lo!est levels in t"ree !eeks# 3n increase in
oil e9ports !ill provide !elcoe relief to Libya5s struggling econoy6 after ared
occupations and strikes in t"e afterat" of 0uaar :addafi5s overt"ro! in 2011
paralysed t"e country)s oil industry#
Libya5s +ational Oil $orporation announced its intention to lift a force a-eure ban
on t"e eastern oil terinals ; an encouraging sign t"at Libya)s political and econoic
turoil ay begin to noralise# *urt"erore6 several rebels groups "ave announced
t"eir support of t"e ne! parliaent elected last !eek# 7t is !idely e9pected t"at
legislators intend to replace t"e current assebly t"at is largely doinated by
7slaists6 !"ic" Jad"ran5s group6 in particular6 opposes# &uc" increased pluralis
!it"in Libya)s governent is a positive ove to!ards providing t"e political cliate
necessary to alleviate any of t"e tensions t"at currently prevail !it"in t"e country#
Open Briefing |
!ther developments
Ethiopia has called on "emen to e#tradite the leader of an outlawed opposition group in order to
face terrorism charges$ 4"e /t"iopian governent !elcoed t"e arrest of 3ndargac"e! 4sige6
secretary.general of t"e :inbot 7 group6 as "e tried to transit t"roug" &anaa airport# /t"iopian leaders
accuse 4sige of plotting terrorist attacks# :inbot 76 based in t"e <nited &tates6 calls for t"e overt"ro! of
/t"iopia)s ruling party# 7n recent years6 several individuals "ave been convicted for t"eir links to t"e group6
including a nuber of proinent -ournalists# :inbot 7 released a stateent criticising 4sige5s detainent
and pledging retribution s"ould "e be e9tradited to /t"iopia#
The militant group al%&habaab' have claimed responsibility for two separate raids on settlements in
(enya' during the evening of ) *uly$ 3ppro9iately a do,en ared assailants attacked villagers in =indi
village6 Lau $ounty6 killing at least 1> people and setting alig"t to a nuber of governent buildings# 7n
a separate attack on :aba to!n in 4ana 1iver $ounty6 ilitants killed at least 10 civilians and raided a
police station6 !"ic" resulted in t"e deat" of a police officer6 before t"e release of at least one detainee
!"o !as being "eld in custody at t"e police station on suspicion of being involved in a recent al.&"abaab.
claied attack of a siilar nature# 3lt"oug" t"e &oali.based ilitant group "as taken responsibility for
t"e attacks6 t"e 'enyan aut"orities "ave contested t"is and blaed local et"nic rivalries#
&triking engineering and metal workers in &outh Africa have re+ected a wage offer to end the
country,s largest%ever strike$ 4"e &teel and /ngineering 7ndustries *ederation of &out"ern 3frica
?&/7*&3@ announced on 4 July t"at !orkers5 representatives "ad re-ected t"e offer of an initial 10A pay
increase for t"is year6 !it" furt"er increases over t"e ne9t t!o years# 3round 2006000 !orkers began
industrial action on 1 July6 !it" t"e +ational <nion of 0etal Borkers ?+<0&3@6 &out" 3frica5s largest
union6 deanding !age increases of up to 18A in a one.year deal# &o far6 t"e strike "as "it an estiated
106800 copanies across t"e country6 !it" concerns ounting over t"e ipact of t"e strikes upon t"e
country5s car.anufacturing services#
!n the radar
&peculation continues regarding -ambian President Michael &ata,s deteriorating health and
t"e intention of one of "is sons to run for office#
.enewed debate is surfacing in /igeria over the /ational 0onference,s proposal to create 11
more states$
The 2/ &ecurity 0ouncil is to be briefed by the 2/ !ffice for 3est Africa on 1 *uly' and !ill
consult on &oalia and /ritrea on 10 July#
11 *uly marks the four%year anniversary of the bombings in (ampala' 2ganda' carried out by al.
&"abaab#
Aid agencies are warning that a famine could break out in &outh &udan within weeks unless
a-or food aid is provided#

Open Briefing | 4
3ericas
*uan 0arlos 5arela inaugurated as new president of Panama
On 1 July6 President Juan $arlos %arela !as officially s!orn into office during an inaugural cereony at
t"e 1oel *ernande, &tadiu in Panaa $ity# 4"e event !as attended by a nuber of significant
political leaders6 including &panis" Prie 0inister 0ariano 1a-oy and t"e president of 4ai!an6 0a Cing.
-eou# &everal "ours before t"e cereony6 %arela et !it" a <& delegation led by &ecretary of &tate Jo"n
'erry to discuss cooperation !it"in t"e field of education and on t"e ongoing Panaa $anal enlargeent
pro-ect# 7n "is first speec" as president6 %arela proised to give back strengt" and credibility to t"e
country)s deocratic institutions6 to fig"t against corruption and to aintain econoic gro!t"# 3fter t"e
inauguration6 %ene,uela)s vice.president6 Jorge 3rrea,a6 announced t"e official restoration of diploatic
relations bet!een t"e t!o countries#
%arela served as Panaa)s vice.president fro 200D to 20146 and as inister of foreign affairs fro 200D
to 20116 until running against t"e "andpicked successor of "is forer ally6 1icardo 0artinelli6 in t"e
presidential election on 4 0ay# <nder 0artinelli)s adinistration6 t"e country)s econoy "as undergone
draatic developent but at t"e cost of gro!ing ineEuality and rising basic food prices# %arela)s victory
!it" over F0A of t"e vote arked an end to 0artinelli)s "old on po!er# Guring "is rule6 0artinelli !as
accused of using "is business connections to increase "is support base6 and found "iself entangled in an
alleged H28 illion corruption scandal involving corporate contracts in Panaa6 despite being
controversially acEuitted of suc" involveent by t"e serving attorney general# %arela faces "ig" doestic
and international e9pectations# =is electoral victory o!es uc" to "is denunciations of 0artinelli)s
litigious practices6 as any Panaanians "ave becoe less tolerant of t"e rapant corruption t"at
plagues t"e country)s adinistration# 7n parallel6 t"e <nited &tates sees %arela as a ore transparent
partner6 !"o is better suited to ensuring t"e successful copletion of t"e Panaa $anal e9pansion
pro-ect# 7n contrast6 t"e left.!ing governents of Latin 3erica6 suc" as %ene,uela6 "ope t"at Panaa)s
ne!ly.elected president !ill adopt a ore abivalent stance t"at is less subservient to <& interests in t"e
region#
3ong t"e priorities set for "is five.year andate6 %arela placed particular ep"asis upon t"e e9tension
!ork of t"e Panaa $anal# 4"e Panaa $anal e9pansion pro-ect is a ultibillion.dollar enterprise
launc"ed in 2007 to increase t"e canal)s s"ip transit capacity# 7ts copletion date !as initially sc"eduled
for 2014 but !as delayed by a year follo!ing a series of logistical issues and a ore recent dispute over
financing# 4"e <nited &tates6 !"ic" built t"e canal in 1D14 and constitutes t"e !ater!ay5s biggest
custoer6 "as been urging Panaa)s aut"orities to deliver t"e pro-ect on tie# 4"e construction of a !ider
canal is a a-or strategic interest for t"e <nited &tates in its efforts to e9port liEuefied natural gas ?L+:@
to 3sia fro t"e :ulf $oast# 7n addition6 %arela is coitted to ending t"e country)s endeic proble of
insecurity !it" a prograe called 2&afe +eig"bour"ood)6 and "as decreed an anesty period until 1
3ugust in order for criinal gangs to cease t"eir activity#

Open Briefing | 6
!ther developments
.ussia has cancelled 789 of the debt 0uba contracted with the &oviet 2nion$ On 4 July6 t"e 1ussian
parliaent agreed to reduce t"e $uban debt fro H>2 billion to H>#2 billion# 4"e announceent !as
ade days before President %ladiir Putin)s tour in t"e region# 4"e 1ussian president is to arrive in $uba)s
capital6 =avana6 on 11 July6 before going to 3rgentina and t"en Bra,il for t"e si9t" B17$& suit on 18
July# Guring "is stay in $uba6 Putin is e9pected to disclose ne! investents and partners"ips in t"e areas
of energy6 transport6 civil aviation and public "ealt"# Over t"e past ont"s6 1ussia "as "ad a ore active
stance in t"e region6 aid gro!ing tensions !it" t"e Best over t"e <krainian crisis#
The !rganisation of American &tates :!A&; has declared its support for Argentina in its legal dispute
against the so%called <vulture funds= and its attempts to restructure its sovereign debt$ 4"e
organisation publis"ed an official stateent t"at "ig"lig"ts t"e risk posed by t"e recent precedent on t"e
international financial syste6 follo!ing t"e refusal of t"e <& &upree $ourt to "ear 3rgentina)s defence
against +0L $apital# 4"e otion !as approved !it" t"e notable abstention of t"e <nited &tates and
$anada# 4"e &upree $ourt)s decision represents a a-or setback in t"e noralisation of t"e 3rgentine
econoy6 and ay risk triggering a tec"nical default !it"in t"e coing ont"# 3rgentine econoic
aut"orities !ill eet !it" t"e +0L $apital court.appointed la!yer in +e! Cork on 7 July#
A terrorist attack on an oil camp in the northeast of 0olombia left 14 in+ured$ 4"e assault targeted t"e
$aIo LiJn oilfield in t"e $olobian state of 3rauca and !as attributed to t"e +ational Liberation 3ry
?/L+@ guerrilla group# B"ile t"e /L+ "as traditionally carried out attacks on oil pipeline infrastructure6 t"is
attack is t"e first to target !orkers# 4"e oil ric" 3rauca region6 !"ic" borders %ene,uela6 is considered to
be t"e /L+ strong"old# 4"e oil and ineral sectors of $olobia6 !"ic" "ave been booing over recent
years6 represent t"e preferred targets of guerrillas group and ot"er criinal organisations# 4"e /L+ is t"e
second ost significant guerrilla group in t"e country6 !it" an estiated 26800 ebers#
!n the radar
>urther planned protests against the >?>A 3orld 0up are to take place across @raAil this
week in 1io de Janeiro6 &Ko Paulo and t"e capital6 Brasilia#
El @arABn activist group plans to protest in Me#ico=s capital' Me#ico city' on 4 *uly' against
t"e governent)s energy refors#

Open Briefing | )
3sia and t"e Pacific
0hinese and &outh (orean presidents meet for fifth time during Ci *inping=s official state visit to
&outh (orea
On 4 July6 $"inese President (i Jinping finis"ed "is t!o.day official state visit to &out" 'orea# Guring t"is
visit6 (i and &out" 'orean President Park :eun."ye ade strong overtures regarding t"eir country)s
positions to!ards regional stability# &pecifically6 a senior presidential secretary for Park stated t"at t"e
&out" 'orean and $"inese presidents bot" agreed t"at Japan)s 2attitude to!ards revising "istory
continues) and t"at uc" of t"e !orld6 including any Japanese people6 strongly oppose t"e ending of
Japan)s ban on its self defence operations abroad# 4"e forer coent !as ade in reference to t"e
!ars foug"t bet!een Japan and t"e t!o countries# 7n (i)s speec" at &eoul +ational <niversity6 "e referred
to t"ese conflicts as a s"ared eory of 2barbarous !ars of aggression)# 7n ters of bilateral relations6
t"is eeting appeared ore sybolic in nature6 t"oug" (i did note t"at "e "oped to finalise a free.trade
agreeent !it" &eoul by t"e end of t"e year# +evert"eless6 t"e t!o countries "ave "istorically struggled
to ake progress on t"e reoval of trade barriers and on ot"er econoic issues#
Based on t"e stateents ade by t"e t!o leaders6 Japan and +ort" 'orea see to be t"e t!o issues
driving t"e increased dialog bet!een (i and Park# 3lt"oug" (i did not ention +ort" 'orea specifically
during "is trip to &out" 'orea "e noted t"at stability on t"e 'orean Peninsula is of utost iportance#
B"ile $"ina opposes t"e furt"er developent of nuclear !eapons by +ort" 'orea6 t"e do!nfall of t"e
+ort" 'orean regie is not in $"ina)s interest# B"ile Japan announced t"is !eek t"at it !ould be lifting
$old Bar.era sanctions on +ort" 'orea6 in e9c"ange for reopening a probe into Japanese victis of
kidnapping in +ort" 'orea6 it is unlikely t"at bilateral relations bet!een 4okyo and Pyongyang !ill
significantly iprove over t"e s"ort ter#
<nlike (i)s previous eetings !it" Park6 last !eek)s official visit !as particularly indicative of t"e c"anging
international political cliate in /ast 3sia# 4"e $old Bar period generated a strong legacy of international
alliances in t"e region6 particularly bet!een +ort" 'orea and $"ina6 and since t"e leaders"ip of $"airan
0ao Ledong6 $"ina "as been +ort" 'orea)s only real ally in t"e region# 4"is 'orean Bar vestige6 "o!ever6
is beginning to fade# 7ndeed6 t"e outcoes of t"e eetings in &out" 'orea suggest t"at t"is bond6 forged
before (i)s generation of leaders"ip assued po!er6 "as becoe less eaningful to t"e $"inese# Based
on (i and Park)s stateents6 it sees t"at Bei-ing ay be seeking a ore eaningful alliance !it" &eoul
t"an Pyongyang#
!ther developments
At least two people were killed and 16 in+ured in violence between @uddhists and Muslims in
Myanmar on 1% *uly$ 4"e attacks by Budd"ists on 0uslis took place in 0andalay6 0yanar)s second
largest city# Officials stated t"at at least 80 people participated in t"e violent attacks6 during !"ic" cars
!ere torc"ed and rocks !ere "urled at 0usli businesses and "oes6 !it" at least one osEue daaged#
4"e incident !as sparked by a ruour t"at a 0usli s"op o!ner "ad raped a Budd"ist !oan# 3 cro!d of
over >00 Budd"ists reportedly stored t"e an)s s"op# Police fired rubber bullets at t"e ob but failed
to control t"e situation# Local aut"orities instituted a curfe! on t"e nig"t of > July6 !"ic" "as "elped
aintain peace and stability in t"e city# 4"is is t"e first a-or violent sectarian incident in 0andalay6
typically c"aracterised as a city of peaceful Budd"ist.0usli coe9istence#
Open Briefing | D
Police in Malaysia on ) *uly announced the arrest of four leaders of the separatist militant
organisation the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam :LTTE;$ 4"is arrest follo!s t"e capture of t"ree ot"er
suspected ilitants on 18 0ay# $ounterterroris forces in 0alaysia stated t"at of t"e ebers arrested
t"is !eek6 one !as an e9pert bob aker and "ad participated in t"e foiled assassination of forer &ri
Lankan President $"andrika 'uaratunga in 1DDD# &ources in 0alaysia indicated t"at one of t"e arrested
"eld a <nited +ations =ig" $oissioner for 1efugees card# 3not"er is suspected of involveent in
"uan trafficking# 4"e four L44/ ebers reportedly entered 0alaysia after a crackdo!n on L44/
activities in &ri Lanka# L44/ !as fored in 1D7F as a ilitant separatist group seeking an independent
4ail state in &ri Lanka# 4"e oveent !as eventually defeated during t"e &ri Lankan $ivil Bar ?1DM>.
200D@# /9perts suggest t"at t"e group is likely attepting to find a ne! base fro !"ic" to revive t"e
L44/ oveent#
!n *uly' /orth (orea launched two short%range rockets into the &ea of *apan$ Bednesday)s launc"es
!ere t"e t"ird set in t"e previous !eek ; all of !"ic" "ave landed in t"e &ea of Japan# Last !eek)s
launc"es preceded t"e arrival of $"inese President (i Jinping in &out" 'orea# Japan and &out" 'orea bot"
condened t"e launc"es# Japan.+ort" 'orea relations did t"a! a little last !eek !it" t"e Japanese
governent announcing its easing of soe unilateral sanctions on +ort" 'orea# 4"e lifting of travel and
banking sanctions on +ort" 'orea cae in e9c"ange for +ort" 'orea)s reopening of an investigation into
t"e Japanese citi,ens abducted by +ort" 'orea during t"e $old Bar# :iven t"e recent iproveent in
Japan.+ort" 'orean relations6 t"e +ort")s launc"es appear to be in protest at &out" 'orea)s "osting of
$"inese officials traditionally sypat"etic to t"e +ort" 'orean governent# 7ndeed on >0 June6 +ort"
'orea)s +ational Gefence $oission ?+G$@ proposed t"e suspension of verbal provocation and ilitary
activities by bot" +ort" and &out" 'orea# &out" 'orean officials re-ected t"is proposal#
!n the radar
The /uclear &uppliers Eroup will continue debate over ?ndia=s proposed membership' as
representatives reain divided#
0hinese President C? *inping will become the first 0hinese head of state for 48 years to visit
&ri Lanka !it" an official state visit planned later t"is year#
Preliminary planning is e#pected to begin this month in Cin+iang' 0hina' for the construction
of an international railway intended to connect $"ina)s !estern region !it" Pakistan#
0hina is e#pected to deport 11 /orth (orean citiAens who fled their country on 17 *une$
After concluding visits to &outh (orea and /ew -ealand' *apanese Prime Minister &hinAo Abe
will meet with officials in Australia on F *uly before "eading to Papua +e! :uinea#

Open Briefing | F
/urope
>ormer >rench President /icolas &arkoAy placed under investigation for allegedly perverting the
course of +ustice
4"e forer *renc" President +icolas &arko,y !as placed under foral investigation for allegedly
perverting t"e course of -ustice by trying to use "is influence to illegally obtain inforation about an
inEuiry into alleged irregularities in t"e 2007 presidential election# =e "as been accused of accepting up to
H70 illion fro t"e forer Libyan leader6 0uaar :addafi6 as !ell as additional donations fro Liliane
Bettencourt6 *rance)s ric"est !oan# 4"e investigation !as announced after anti.corruption police
Euestioned t"e forer president for 18 "ours on 1 July# 7n an intervie! s"ortly after "is release6 &arko,y
called t"e accusations grotesEue and claied t"at t"e investigation !as politically otivated#
7nvestigators suspect t"at &arko,y and "is la!yer6 4"ierry =er,og6 tried to obtain inside inforation fro
t"e -udge :ilbert 3,ibert about t"e progress of t"e investigation involving Bettencourt# Prosecutors also
believe t"at t"e forer president "ad been ade a!are of a obile p"one tap sanctioned by -udges in
order to ascertain !"et"er &arko,y)s 2007 election capaign "ad received donations fro :addafi#
&arko,y is also accused of being tipped off about a planned raid on "is offices# 4"ese recent allegations
are part of a series of investigations involving &arko,y# *or instance6 &arko,y is also being investigated for
using public funds to pay for party political researc" during t"is presidency# =o!ever6 investigators "ave
also faced criticis for aut"orising t"e recording of la!yer.client conversations !"ile tapping t"e p"one
of &arko,y#
4"ese latest developents represent a a-or setback for &arko,y)s planned political coeback in t"e 2017
*renc" presidential elections# &ince "is failed re.election bid in 20126 t"e forer president "as been
unable to garner any eaningful support in t"e polls due to "is involveent in a several ot"er
investigations6 and a general distain to!ards t"e lavis" lifestyle "e leads# &"ould "e be found guilty for
influence.peddling or abuse of po!er6 &arko,y could face up to five years in prison and up to N8006000 in
fines under *renc" la!# /ven if &arko,y is called as a !itness in t"e cases6 it is unlikely t"at "e !ill be able
to salvage "is public iage before t"e beginning of t"e ne9t presidential election capaign# 4"ese recent
allegations "ave6 "o!ever6 also been daaging for *rancois =ollande)s governent6 as a nuber of
inisters6 including t"e -ustice inister6 $"ristiane 4aubira6 "ave ackno!ledged t"eir coplicity in p"one.
tapping activities against &arko,y# 3t a tie of increasing popularity for t"e far.rig"t in *renc" politics6
t"ese allegations represent daaging blo!s to bot" t"e =ollande)s &ocialists and &arko,y)s <nion for
Popular 0oveent ?<0P@ party6 !"o are already facing poor popularity ratings in t"e polls#
!ther developments
/AT! members and .ussia carried out separate drills in the @lack &ea last week$ Bars"ips fro +34O
countries including t"e <nited &tates6 <nited 'ingdo6 4urkey6 :reece6 7taly and 1oania !ere led by t"e
Bulgarian navy in an e9ercise naed 2Bree,e) in t"e !estern section of t"e Black &ea on 4 July# 4"e
e9ercise is part of a 10.day drill t"at ais to iprove interoperability and cooperation bet!een +34O
eber states# On 4 July6 t"e 1ussian defence inistry announced t"at t"e 1ussian Black &ea *leet "ad
coenced ilitary e9ercises of all.ars force# Grills involving around 20 !ars"ips and au9iliary vessels6
20 aircraft and "elicopter guns"ips6 and 0arine $orps and coastal issile units !ere perfored around
t"e !"ole of t"e Black &ea aritie area# 7t is not kno!n "o! long t"ese 1ussian e9ercises !ill last#
Open Briefing | 1
Turkey=s governing A( Party announced on 1 *uly that Prime Minister .ecep Tayyip ErdoGan will be
their candidate for the presidential elections on 18 August 816$ /rdogan "as "eld t"e preiers"ip
since 200> and according to t"e constitution is unable to run for anot"er ter# $ritics argue t"at t"e prie
inister is seeking to becoe ore aut"oritarian and !ants to turn t"e traditionally cereonial position
of president into a ore po!erful post# 7n t"e past6 t"e president "as been c"osen by parliaentO
"o!ever6 for t"e first tie 4urks !ill vote for t"eir preferred candidate in a t!o.round election process# 7n
3pril6 President 3bdulla" :Pl re-ected t"e suggestion of s!apping positions !it" /rdoQan at t"e end of
t"e presidential ter#
!n *uly' the 2krainian parliament endorsed President Petro Poroshenko=s appointment of 0olonel%
Eeneral 5alery Heletey to the positions of defence chief and general chief of staff$ =eletey !ill enact
a series of refors in t"e ilitary to restore t"e capability of t"e <krainian ared forces# Poros"enko
"opes t"at t"is ne! direction !ill s"arpen t"e ary)s effectiveness and deter furt"er 1ussian aggression#
4"e ceasefire bet!een t"e ilitary forces and rebels in eastern <kraine officially ended on >0 June6 and
governent forces "ave re.launc"ed operations against pro.1ussian separatists in t"ese regions#
3ddressing parliaent on > July6 =eletey also vo!ed t"at t"e <krainian ary !ould regain control of t"e
$riean Peninsula t"at !as anne9ed by 1ussia in 0arc" 2014#
!n the radar
@ritish Prime Minister Iavid 0ameron will visit Eibraltar on F%1 *uly to tackle t"e ongoing
probles on t"e Britis" Overseas 4erritory)s border !it" &pain#
The election of the new President of the European 0ommission will be held in @russels'
Belgiu6 on 18 July#
The High .epresentative of the 2nion for >oreign Affairs and &ecurity Policy for the E2'
0atherine Ashton' will lead talks on ?ran=s nuclear programme on 7 July in %ienna6 3ustria#
Protestant groups will march on !rangemen=s Iay in @elfast' /orthern ?reland' on 12 July#
0iddle /ast
Protests and bomb blasts mark one%year anniversary of military coup in Egypt that ousted the
Muslim @rotherhood
On > July6 supporters of ousted President 0o"aed 0orsi "eld rallies across several /gyptian cities in
response to t"e 7slaic +ational 3lliance to &upport Legitiacy5s call for a day of national anger# 3t least
t"ree people !ere killed follo!ing clas"es !it" security forces in :i,a6 sout"!est of central $airo6 and a
furt"er 187 !ere arrested according to state officials# 3 conscripted guard !as killed and a furt"er t!o
protesters !ere in-ured during clas"es in t"e capital5s sout"ern district of =el!an# &ecurity forces
attepted to disperse protesters using tear gas and flas" grenades6 and t"ey closed traffic access to 4a"ir
&Euare6 t"e iconic sybol of t"e /gyptian revolution# On t"e sae day6 an iprovised e9plosive device !as
detonated on a public train in t"e country5s second city6 3le9andria6 !ounding nine# &eparately6 a
"oeade bob !as accidentally detonated inside an apartent in t"e 7slaist strong"old of 'irdasa"6
killing t!o suspected ilitants#

Open Briefing | 7
4"e protests are indicative of t"e country)s ongoing political disunityO "o!ever6 t"e saller nuber of
deonstrators taking to t"e streets ay reflect a ne! reluctance fro 7slaists and ot"er political
dissidents to c"allenge t"e state after ont"s of "ars" governent crackdo!ns# &ince t"e July 201>
ilitary coup and t"e June 2014 inauguration of President 3bdel *atta" al.&isi6 t"ere "as been a ban on
public deonstrations6 !it" clas"es claiing t"e lives of "undreds of 0orsi sypat"isers# 3longside t"e
ousted president6 t"e state "as iprisoned up!ards of 226000 individuals on political and terrorist
c"arges6 notably sentencing soe 82D 0usli Brot"er"ood ebers to deat" in 0arc" of t"is year#
Gespite t"is6 t"e +ational 3lliance to &upport Legitiacy6 coprised of soe 11 7slaic groups6 continues
to seek political obilisation against al.&isi# &treet deonstrations are likely to continue in t"e follo!ing
days and !eeks6 toget"er !it" an increased use of iprovised e9plosives as t"e unrest continues#
!ther developments
?ran and the P)J1 have resumed the fifth round of nuclear talks in 5ienna$ 4"e seven states are
seeking agreeent on t"e ters of 4e"ran5s nuclear prograe by 20 July6 t"e e9piration of t"e si9.
ont" agreeent reac"ed in +oveber 201># 7ran6 in keeping !it" t"e ters of t"e agreeent6 "as
curbed its uraniu enric"ent in return for an easing of econoic sanctions# Gespite t"e successes of t"e
interi agreeent6 t"e talks are likely to be arked by fierce disagreeents over t"e nuber of
centrifuges t"at it is acceptable for 7ran to "ave# 4"e 7ranian negotiator6 0a-id 4ak"t.1avanc"i6 stated at
t"e eetings resuption t"at 4e"ran !ould not abandon its tec"nological and nuclear developent6 and
s"ould t"e P8R1 adopt a9ialist positions6 no deal !ould be et# 4"us6 if !"at are perceived to be
e9cessive deands are placed upon 7ran6 no agreeent !ill be reac"ed and t"e talks !ould likely be
e9tended a furt"er si9 ont"s#
The ?slamic &tate of ?raK and the Levant :?&?&; seiAed control of eastern &yria on 4 *uly$ 4"e rebels
stored areas of &yria5s Geir as.Lour province6 taking control of strategic border to!ns and t"e al.Oar
oilfield6 one of &yria5s largest producers of crude oil# 4"e area6 previously controlled by Jab"at al.+usra6
also kno!n as t"e al.+usra *ront6 !as reportedly over.run during cross.border raids t"at forced t"e
retreat of t"e al.Saeda linked group# 7&7&)s latest victory and territory gains serve to reinforce gro!ing
concerns t"at t"e ilitant group is gro!ing in strengt" !it"in t"e region# 0oreover6 t"e developent is
likely to cause alar to neig"bouring :ulf states6 !"ic" "ave e9pressed concern over 7&7&5s e9pansionist
intentions and sectarian ideology#
5iolence erupted on 6 *uly as thousands of Palestinians took to the streets for the funeral of
murdered Palestinian teenager Mohammed Abu (hder' !"ic" coincided !it" t"e first *riday prayers of
t"e 7slaic "oly ont"6 1aadan# Protestors in &"uafat6 eastern Jerusale6 clas"ed !it" security forces
after t"ro!ing rocks and 0olotov cocktails# 7sraeli forces reacted by firing tear gas and stun grenades into
t"e cro!ds# *riday5s protests !ere part of escalating tensions bet!een 7srael and Palestine6 follo!ing t"e
discovery of abducted 7sraeli teenagers +aftali *raenkel6 :il.3d &"aer and /yal Cifra" in a s"allo! grave in
t"e Best Bank on 1 July# =aas6 blaed by 7srael for t"e urder and abduction of t"e teens6 "as ardently
denied any involveent in t"e killings6 blaing splinter e9treist groups for t"e abductions# $las"es look
likely to continue in t"e !ake of recent events6 and 7srael continues to ilitarily reinforce t"e Palestinian
borders of t"e :a,a &trip and Best Bank#

Open Briefing | 18
!n the radar
?raKi parliament to reconvene on 1 *uly in t"e "ope of creating a ne! coalition governent#
2/ &ecurity 0ouncil to discuss draft resolution of cross%border humanitarian assistance to
&yria fro 7.1> July#
F *uly marks the two%year anniversary of Libya,s first free elections follo!ing t"e revolution
t"at ended 0uaar :addaffi5s 40.year rule
?ncreased risk of terrorist attacks in ?raK on .epublic Iay' 14 July#
Polar regions
.ussian bombers <test= 0anada=s military readiness
1ussian 4u.D8 "eavy bobers "ave e9ecuted flig"t issions in close pro9iity to $anada)s nort"ern
borders on at least t!o recent occasions# B"ile $anada)s ilitary e9ercises considerable secrecy in s"aring
inforation on t"e e9act nubers of 1ussian flig"t issions near its borders6 or t"e e9act details of t"e
issions t"eselves6 Gefence 0inister 1ob +ic"olson "as spoken recently in Parliaent about an increase
in 1ussian ilitary activity in t"e 3rctic and t"e need for ongoing vigilance# *urt"er incidences in +ort"
3erica in June sa! <& -ets scrabled in response6 including interceptions of 1ussian long.range bobers
off t"e 3laskan coast and even 1>0 kiloetres fro $alifornia# 3ccording to +ort" 3erican 3erospace
Gefense $oand ?+O13G@6 suc" probes are not strictly speaking illegal6 but any defence officials in
bot" $anada and t"e <nited &tates "ave interpreted t"e oves as strategic essaging fro 0osco!6 !it"
1ussia attepting to punis" $anada for its critical stance on t"e crisis in <kraine#
4"e 1ussian ilitary e9ercises "ave e9posed at least t"ree probleatic diensions of $anada)s defence
and foreign policies# *irst6 t"ere is t"e long.running dispute over !"et"er and "o! to replace $anada)s
aging fleet of *.1M =ornet fig"ter -ets# 0any in t"e defence establis"ent are advocating for t"e to be
replaced by t"e *.>8 Lightning II6 but in addition to t"e e9pected reservations over cost t"ere are soe
concerns over t"e suitability of t"e *.>8 for interception issions# &econd6 soe "ave criticised Prie
0inister &tep"en =arper)s recent foreign policy decisions in relation to 1ussia6 arguing t"at alt"oug" t"ey
!ere principled decisions too little !as done to prepare for a 1ussian response# *inally6 t"ere is t"e long.
ter Euestion of security policy in t"e 3rctic# Like 1ussian President %ladiir Putin6 =arper "as ade soe
assertive clais over $anadian sovereignty in t"e 3rctic# B"atever t"e !ords used by bot" leaders6 t"e
recent 1ussian bober probes suggest t"at $anada is far less able to convert t"ese !ords into reality t"an
1ussia#
+one of t"ese probles look capable of any iediate solution# 4"e dispute over t"e refitting of t"e
$anadian air force !ill not be resolved any tie soon6 and in t"e likely scenario t"at 1ussia aintains its
pressure along $anada)s nort"ern borders6 t"e fleet of *.1Ms !ill "ave to cover long distances to respond#
4"e c"ill in 1ussian.$anadian ilitary relations follo!ing $anada)s e9pulsion of 1ussian ilitary units fro
t"e country coplicates efforts at inforation s"aring and t"e avoidance of isunderstandings on bot"
sides# *inally6 !"ile conflict over territory and resources in t"e 3rctic reains a distant eventuality6 if
$anada is to ake good on t"eir clais it !ill "ave a long !ay to go to eet t"e c"allenge presented by
1ussia)s copre"ensive rearaent prograe#

Open Briefing | 11
!ther developments
0anada=s /ational Energy @oard has given the green light to a five%year plan for seismic e#ploration
of oil and gas reserves under the shelf in @affin @ay and Iavis &trait in 0anada=s eastern Arctic$ 3n
international consortiu of t"ree ining copanies under t"e ubrella nae 0ulti.'lient 7nvest ?0'7@
subitted t"e plan for t"e e9ploration pro-ect# 7nuit leaders "ave e9pressed considerable concerns about
t"e proposal# 4"e SikiEtani 7nuit 3ssociation)s outgoing president said t"at t"e approval s"ould "ave been
delayed until t"e results of a strategic environental assessent by t"e Gepartent of 3boriginal 3ffairs
and +ort"ern Gevelopent "ave been publis"ed#
.ussia is investing si# billion roubles on the refurbishment of five Arctic airfields' all former &oviet
bases abandoned after the end of the 0old 3ar$ 3ccording to a report in t"e 1ussian ne!spaper Izvestia
on 2 July6 t"e airfields !ill be ready for use by October 2018# 4"e decision follo!s t"e !idely reported
reopening of t"e 4ep airfield at 'otelny in t"e +e! &iberian 7slands in &epteber 201># Izvestia Euotes
Leonid 7vas"ov6 President of t"e 1ussian 3cadey of :eopolitical Probles6 !"o clais t"at t"e
redevelopent of t"ese airfields is essential for protecting ne! oil and gas developents along 1ussia)s
3rctic s"elf#
>urther doubts have been raised about the immediate prospects for Arctic shipping in a recent
intervie! given by Jan.:unnar Bint"er6 director of t"e +or!egian Polar 7nstitute6 to t"e BarentsObserver#
B"ile bot" t"e nuber of ice.free days and t"e nuber of successfully copleted coercial voyages
"ave increased year on year since 20106 Bint"er clais t"at poor apping and !eak satellite connections
ake any -ourney along t"e +ort"ern 1oute6 !"ic" follo!s 1ussia)s 3rctic coast6 too dangerous to
countenance !it"out e9pensive icebreaker assistance6 !"ic" calls profitability into Euestion# 4"is danger
is furt"er copounded by t"e difficulty of ounting searc" and rescue operations in t"e 3rctic#
!n the radar
0hina=s icebreaker Cuelong :&now Iragon; is set to leave its &hanghai base on 11 *uly to
ebark on a si9t" e9pedition to t"e +ort" Pole#
0hina is planning to publish a guidebook for ships sailing through the /orthern &ea .oute on
an unspecified date later t"is ont"#
.ussia will begin construction of three new nuclear%powered submarines on 17 *uly at its
+ort"ern s"ipbuilding base of &everodvinsk on t"e B"ite &ea#


Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www$bradburys$co$uk

Open Briefing | 1
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Analysts: $"ris 3bbott6 Gerek $rystal6 Laura =artann6 4ancrTde *euillade6 $laudia Bagner6 &op"ie
4aylor6 0att"e! $ouillard and Patrick &e!ell#