National Center for Education Statistics

Table A-25. Estimated equations and model statistics for public elementary and secondary teachers
Durbin- Error
Dependent Watson distribution
variable Equation R2 statistic 1 pattern2 Rho

Elementary ln(RELENRTCH) = 3.9 + .1 ln(RSALARY) - .2 ln(RSGRNTELENR) 0.99 2.0* AR(1) 0.36

(4.6) (-10.5) (2.04)

Secondary ln(RSCENRTCH) = 4.1 - .2 ln(RSGRNTSCENR) + .6 ln(RSCENRPU) 0.99 1.9* AR(1) 0.60

(-14.5) (4.9) (3.7)

* p<.05.
1
For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston and J. Dinardo, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996.
2
AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of
the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee,
The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315–318.

Where:
RELENRTCH = Log of the ratio of public elementary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e., student/teacher ratio)
RSCENRTCH = Log of the ratio of public secondary school enrollment to classroom teachers (i.e., student/teacher ratio)
RSALARY = Log of the average annual teacher salary relative to the overall economy wage in 2000 dollars
RSGRNTELENR = Log of the ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to public elementary school enrollment in 2000 dollars
RSGRNTSCENR = Log of the ratio of education revenue receipts from state sources per capita to public secondary school enrollment in 2000 dollars
RSCENRPU = Log of the ratio of enrollment in public secondary schools to the 11- to 18-year-old population
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Rho measures the correlation between errors in time period t and time period t minus 1. Numbers in
parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary Teacher Model, 1968–2003. (This table was
prepared December 2006.)
ndary teachers

Time
period

1973 to
2003

1973 to
2003

1996.
n. For a general discussion of
, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee,

nt in 2000 dollars
nt in 2000 dollars

minus 1. Numbers in

–2003. (This table was