Another probability definition The probability of an event is the number of favorable cases divided by the total number of equally

likely cases If 10 coins fall to the floor what is the probability that 5 are heads and 5 are tails. si= (a1,a2,a3,a4,a5,a6,a7,a8,a9,a10) |S| = 210 |E| = 10!/(5!5!) P(E) = 10!/(2105!5!) Lets try a coins. What |S| = 24 hhhh, hhht, htht, htth, tttt, ttth, thth, thht, a,b,c,d simpler problem. Instead of 10 coin, there are 4 is the probability of 2 heads and two tails? hhth, hhtt, hthh, httt ttht, tthh, thtt, thhh

24 arrangements of {a,b,c,d} abcd abdc acbd acdb adbc adcb bacd badc bcad bcda bdac bdca aacd aadc acad acda adac adca aacc aacc acac acca acac acca aacc aacc acac acca acac acca

aacc,acac,acca ccaa,caca,caac 4x3x2x1/2x1x2x1 P(soon) = ? P(so1o2n) = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24

If we assume the os are identical how many fewer permutations do we have? so1o2n so2o1n P(soon) = P(so1o2n)/2 P(so1o2o3) = 24 so1o2o3 so1o3o2 so2o1o3 so2o3o1 so3o1o2 so3o2o1 P(logo) = 4!/2! P(alla) = 4!/(2!2!) P(mississippi) = 11!/(4!2!4!)

What is the probability a permutation of the 26 alphabet? The first 13 letters of a is the first letter letter |E| = 1 x 13! = 13! |S| = 26! P(E) = 13!/26!

of these events when we randomly select lowercase letters of the English the permutation are in alphabetical order of the permutation and z is the last

a and z are next to each other in the permutation Letsolve a simpler problem {a,b,y,z} {az,b,y} 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 |E| = 12 |S| = 24

P(E) = 24 Back to the original problem {az,b,c,...y} {za,b,c,...y} |E| = 2 x 25! |S| = 26! P(E) = 2 x 25!/26! = 2/26 = 1/13 a and z are not next to each other in the permutation P(E U Ec) = 1 P(E U Ec) = P(E) + P(Ec) P(E Ec) = 0 P(Ec) = 1 P(E) = 1 1/13 = 12/13 a immediately precedes z in the permutation az, b,c,d,...y} |E| = 25! |S| = 26! P(E) = 25!/26! = 1/26 a immediately precedes m, which immediately precedes z in the permutation {amz,b,...l,n,...y} |E| = 24! |S| = 26! P(E) = 24!/26! = 1/(26x25) m, n, and o are in their original places in the permutation |E| = 1 x 23! = 23! |S| = 26! P(E) = 23!/26! What is the probability that two people chosen at random are born on the same day of the week? |S| = 7 x 7 = 49?

(s,s),(s,m),(s,tu),(s,w),... (m,s),(m,m),(m,tu),(m,w),... (sa,s),(sa,m) ... |E| = 7? P(E) = 7/49 = 1/7 Suppose there only 2 people P(M1 and M2) = 1/49 ... P(Su1 and Su2) = 1/49 Find the probability that a family with five children does not have a girl if the sexes of the children are independent and if a boy and a girl are equally likely? P(B) = P(G) = ? G = Bc P(B U G) = P(B) + P(G) = 1 P(B) = P(G) 2P(B) = 1 P(B) = P(G) = 1/2 |E| = 1 |S| = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 25 P(E) = 1/32 Find the probability that a family with five children does not have a girl if the sexes of the children are independent and if the probability of a boy is p and the probability of a girl is 1-p? A group of six people play the game of odd person out to determine who buys refreshments. Each person flips a fair coin. If there is a person whose outcome is not the same as that of any other member of the group, then this person buys refreshments. What is the probability that there is an odd person out after the coins are flipped once? 2 x 2 x ... 2 = 26 |S| = 26 THHHHH,HTHHHH,HHTHHH,HHHTHH, HHHHTH, HHHHHT |E| = 12 P(O1) = 12/26 = 3 x 22/26 = 3 x (22/26) = 3/24

P(O2) = P(E1c and E2) = P(E1c)P(E2)= pq where q = 3/24 and p = 1 q P(O3)= P(E1c and E2c and E3) = P(E1c)P(E2c)P(E3) = p x p x q = p2q P(O4) = p3q P(On) = pn-1q