MANE-4030: Elements of Mechanical Design: Worksheet #1

1/24/11: Topic: reliability A supplier of 4340 steel has shipped enough material to fabricate 100 fatigue-critical tension links for an aircraft application. As required in the purchase contract, the supplier has conducted uniaxial fatigue tests on random specimens drawn from the lot of material and has certified that the mean fatigue strength corresponding to a life of 106 cycles is 68,000 psi, the standard deviation on strength corresponding to a life of 106 cycles is 3200 psi, and that the distribution of strength at a life of 106 cycles is normal. The tension link has a cylindrical cross-section with a diameter of 0.5 inch with a tolerance of 0.002 inch. From dynamic simulations, it has been determined that the expected force amplitude on this component is 10,000 lb with a standard deviation of 1500 lb. You are to estimate how many tension links from the lot of 100 are expected to fail when operated for 106 cycles. (a) First, you need to determine the mean and standard deviation of the applied stress amplitude in the tension link to compare against the fatigue strength. What 2 quantities do you need to determine the stress? How accurately do you know each of these quantities? If you know one of these quantities with considerably more accuracy than the other, you may neglect the error (i.e. standard deviation) of the accurately known quantity and assume it exact because the error in the other quantity will dominate. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the applied stress. (b) Roughly sketch out the distributions of the strength and stress and indicate the region associated with failure at 106 cycles. Note, the mean fatigue strength of 68,000 psi corresponding to a life of 106 cycles means that 1/2 the parts tested that were cycled with a stress amplitude of 68,000 psi had failed by 106 cycles. With a lower stress, the probability of failure goes down and with a higher stress, the probability of failure goes up, naturally. (c) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the random variable associated with reliability, i.e. strength greater than stress ( y = S ). Sketch the distribution for y and show the region associated with failure. (d) Determine the standard normal variable at the boundary between the reliable and failure regions. Use Table 2.9 to determine the probability of failure and estimate the number of parts that are expected to fail when operated for 106 cycles.

Worksheet #1 solutions
Jan. 24, 2011 (a) To determine the stress, we need the force and cross-sectional area. The force is not too accurate, with a standard deviation of 15% of the mean. The cross-sectional area is related to the square of the diameter, which is pretty accurate. Note that assuming a natural tolerance, the standard deviation in the diameter is 1/3 the tolerance, thus, the standard deviation is 6.667 104 , or 0.13% of the mean. Even if we look at the variability in the cross-sectional area, we see that the standard deviation is only about 0.27%, which is small compared to the deviation in the force. Thus, the deviation in the cross-sectional area is relatively negligible. Neglecting the variability in the deviation in the cross-sectional area then the mean and standard deviation of the amplitude of the applied stress is:

10, 000 lb = 50, 930 psi (0.25 in)2 1, 500 lb = 7, 639 psi = (0.25 in)2

(b)
0.14

0.12

f(S)
0.1 0.08

f(), f(S)

failure region
0.06

0.04

f()

0.02

0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

stress, strength (kpsi)

Figure 1: Sketch of probability distributions of stress and strength of tensile member. (c) y = S = 68, 000 psi 50930 psi = 17, 070 psi y =
2 2 = S +

(3, 200 psi)2 + (7, 639 psi)2 = 8, 282 psi

(d) I need to nd the parameter X to use in Table 2.9. I can use equation (2-96) in the book to nd this. The way I like to think of this is that I need to know how many standard 1

0.05

0.04

0.03 f(y) 0.02 failure region 0.01

0 -20

-10

10

20 y y (kpsi)

30

40

50

Figure 2: Sketch of probability distributions for random variable associated with reliability, y. deviations are between the mean and the value Im interested in (x), which in this case is 0 (i.e. I want to know the probability y < 0 or P {y < 0}). So then X= 0 17, 070 = 2.06 8, 282

So there are 2.06 standard deviations between the mean and 0. I look up X = 2.06 (since the normalized distribution is symmetric about X = 0, it doesnt matter if it is plus or minus, I just need to remember now Ive reected the distribution about the mean since I changed the sign). In Table 2.9, I nd the F (X ) = 0.9803. Now F (X ) is the integral from to X on the standard normal distribution. Im interested in the region in the tail, which is on the other side of X and is 1 F (X ) = 0.0.0197 = 1.97%. This is the probability of failure, so out of 100 parts, 2 are expected to fail.