Contents

/

































, .
.

.

5FM


PIKVOHJMM!TIJOZPVOHDPN





5FM


DIPLBOHVO!TIJOZPVOHDPN

CDU
(Crude Distillate Unit)

, (Crude Oil)
(, , ) ,
(Crude Oil) .
CDU .
CDU ,
. CDU
,
.

(Crude Oil) 1(Barrel)

.
,

() .

,
.
* : Simple(), CDU().
CDU

* :

B/D

(Crude Oil) ,

.
* : Gasoline, . .

* : Naptha, .

* : Kero, Kerosene. (Jet Kero)
* : Gas Oil, Diesel Diesel
, Diesel . ,

* : HSFO, High Sulfur Fuel Oil, Fuel Oil,
C ,

(Barrels per Day)

1 159 .
B/D /
. 1 7.4
,

.
.

(Cracker, Fuel Oil Cracker)

BTX

C (HSFO, High
Sulfur Fuel Oil, Fuel Oil)
(Crack) (Fuel Oil
Cracker) . (Sulfur)
Cracker (Upgrading Facility, HOU,
Heavy Oil Upgrade) ,
Cracker .
(Cracker) .

(Benzene),
(Toluene), (Xylene)
.
(, ) (
) (Aromatics)
.

,
. (SK, GS, SOil, ) BTX
, (LG,
, NCC ) .
(LG, , NCC
) BTX ,

.

* HYC(Hydrocracker):
* RFCC(Residual Fluid Catalystic Cracker) FCC:

* Coker: . ,
cokes . Coker
,

(Spread)

(Spread) .

,
() . ,


.

(LBO, Lubricants Base Oil)

(XQ, SSU
) .

.
1 5 5 ,
.
.
2 3 .
1:
2:
3: ,
4,5:

NCC
(Naphtha Cracking Center)

(, Naphtha) (cracking) ,
, , LPG, BTX,
.
.

,
.
, LPG (Gas Oil)
,
.
NCC ,

. (ethane)

.

NCC
2 4
.
LPG, BTX,
,
NCC .
,
(monomer) .
,
.

PV

(Polymer)

,
.
,
(chip)
() .
, ,
(PVC), (), (
, BR) ~
.

* : , PVC
* :
* : 4

(photovoltaic)

. PV
(Photovoltaic) .
* : (Si) . 99.99999%
( ) ,

* : 180

* :

* : .

* : ,

: /
< >, ( )

L

P

G

SK 111B/D
GS 77B/D
S-Oil 68B/D
37B/D

< 8350>
SK(860), (470)
LG(2000),
Y NCC(1910)
(1000),
(2110)

< 6841>
SK(1000), LG
(1170), (180),
(300),
(350), S-Oil(200),
(1055), GS(476)
Y NCC(970)

<LDPE, 1032>
(447),LG(300)
(155),(130)
<LLDPE, 1036>
SK(180),(355),
LG(86),(125),(290)

, ,

<HDPE, 2575>
(530), (630), LG(570),
(460), SK(210), (175)

, ,

<PV C 1462> LG(860),(602)

, ,

<MEG, 1390>
(1055), LG(180), (155)

<PP, 4240>
(470), SK(390), (320),
(1100), GS(180), LG
(380)

, ,

<PO, 310> SKC(310)

<PPG 555>
SKC(200),BASF(65), (80),
KPX (210)

< 354>LG(244),(110)

< 260> LG(260)

, ,

<SBR, 746>
(541), LG(205)

, ,

<BR, 554>
(374), LG(180)

, ,

< 2151>
SK(994), S-Oil(350),
GS(170), (222),
OCI(30), LG(100),
Y NCC(230),
(55)

<TDI 360>
KPX (150), (160), OCI(50)

<PX , 6440>
SK(650), (750),
S-Oil(1800), GS
(1350), (1180)

<TPA = PTA 6790>

(2000), SK(520), (1800)
(1000), (420),(1050)

NCC
()

<BD, 1322>
SK(130), (237)
(120),(300),
Y NCC(240), LG(295)

BTX

< 5038>
SK(803), (240)
OCI(170), S-Oil(560)
LG(505), (550)
GS(930),
Y NCC(390),
(780), (110)

<SM, 3443>
(270), SK(400),
Y NCC(290), LG(683),
(930),
<PS, 1197>
(305), LG(190), (100),
SH(100), EP(156)
<ABS 1726>
(250), LG(650), (550)
<BPA, A 880>
P&B(280), LG(450), (150)

, ,

, ,

(Blast furnace)

. (1
300~400) . 1
3~4 .
.( )
()
. POSCO ,
2010 ,
POSCO .

(Electric furnace)

.
( 50~100)
.( 3,000~5,000).
.

3
.()

.
, , , ,
, , .

: POSCO

(Rolling)

2
( ).
, .
2 ()
.

(Crude steel production)

,

.
.

. 2012 15 1,022
, 7 878 .
2006
2009
.
.(2012 46.9%)
4.6%, 5.9%, 7.1%
. 6,932 , 2010
POSCO 18%
. 3(400) 2013
9 2014 2014
.

& ( )
(Iron ore & Coking coal)

( )

(Steel Scrap)

.
, . ,

(Fe)
. 2009 ,

. (spot)

.

. .
70% ,
.
, ,
, .

.

.

()

: EBN

(, , )

(Semi-finished product, Slab; Bloom; Billet)

.
, , .
,
. , +
, .

, ,

(Hot rolled coil; HRC)

.
. , ,

. 2010 , POSCO

,
. POSCO,
, ,
.

: POSCO

(Cold rolled coil; CRC)

(Heavy plate)

() . 2
, , ,
.
, , ,
.
, ,
.
POSCO, , , ,
. POSCO .

,
.
, 2009 ,


. POSCO, ,
2014 3
150 .

(Wire-rod)

(Special steel)

. POSCO .
() . 2
CHQ-WIRE, (CD-BAR),
, ,
. , ,
.

,
.
, ,
. ,
M/S 1 . 7~10%
M/S 25%
. 2015 100
.

: POSCO

10

(Steel pipe)

(, , )

.
.
,
, 70~80% . 2011
7~8%
. , ,

.

(Flat products)

. , ,

.(
)
.(
) 2010
POSCO,

(/)
. , ,
.

: POSCO

(, )
(Long products, Rebar; Beam; Angle; Section)

H,
.
, .
. , ,
, ,
. 2009
, 2~3% .
,

.
& H

(Chinese steel industry)

45~50%,
47% ,
. 90%
, .
7.1 ,
4,200~4,500 .
60~65%.
(spot)
.

( %)

(%)

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

(%)

46.9% 49.6%

46.2% 47.5%

2012A

2013F

: World Steel Association

11

12





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VNLZVOHB!TIJOZPVOHDPN

13

/
(GT: gross tonnage/NT: net tonnage)

.
(GT)
100
.

(dwt: dead weight tonnage)

. , , , , , ,


.

(NT)
(,
, ) 100

. , , , ,
. 0.65
.

(cgt: compensated gross tonnage)

TEU/FEU
/

(twenty foot equivalent unit/forty foot equivalent unit)

, CGRT
GT

.

20 1 .
40 1 .

1969 UN IMO
G/T
CGRT , 1982 1 1 CGRT
CGT .

14

1
TEU , 20 1
.

(Tanker)

(Bulker)

.
,
,
.

(Bulk)
.
.
, ,
(Dry Bulk) .

, ,
, ,
.

(Container)

.

.
,

.
,
.

(Gas Carrier)

. LNG LPG
.

.

15

FPSO
/

(Floating Production Storage Offloading)

.
(fixed platform)
(jack up) ,
(drillship) (semi-submersible rig)
.

.


.
Oil FPSO LNG FPSO
.

FPSO

BDI

SCFI/CCFI

(BDI: Baltic exchange Dry Index)

. BCI,
BPI, BSI ,
BDI.
BDI
,
.
BCI: Baltic exchange Capesize Index
BPI: Baltic exchange Panamax Index
BSI: Baltic exchange Supramax Index

/ .


.
SCFI CCFI

,
.

(pt)
15,000

(Shanghai Containerized Freight Index/

China Containerized Freight Index)

($/TEU)
2,000

1,500

10,000
1,000

5,000
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

: Bloomberg

16

500
12/10

13/01

13/04

: Chineseshipping

13/07

13/10

BAF
(BAF: Bunker Adjustment Factor)

PSS
/

(PSS: Peak Season Surcharge)

.
,
.

3
,
.

(Alliance)

3 1
.

/
/

/ /
.
,
, .

.

(Charter in/Charter out)

/ .
/ .
,
,
.

17

18




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5FM


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19

TV, , , , 4
. TV,
(?) .

, . ,
44%(2012 )
. , TV ,

.

SBS
. ()
, () .

.
.
TV
.

4
30.0

(Advertising Utilization Ratio)

100.0%

()

20.0

80.0%

10.0

60.0%

0.0

40.0%

-10.0

20.0%

-20.0

0.0%
1/08

-30.0
1/08

1/09

1/10

1/11

1/12

1/13

: KADD(Korea Advanced Digital Data)

: SBS

(Media Representative)

1/09

1/10

1/11

1/12

1/13

.

.
(KOBACO) 3 .
2012 SBS ,
( )
. TV, ()

.
.

. TV
, , , ()
.

.

.

2014
. 2011
, .

20

(Virtual Ads)
.

, .
,
, PPL(Product Placement)
.

ATL/BTL

(Billings)

(Above the Line/Below the Line)

(Billing)
.
.
.
,
.
()
.
Revenue
.

ATL(Above the Line)
. TV, , ,
. (, Line)
. TV,
()
BTL(Below the Line) .

. 2012
ATL 44%, , TV BTL 56%
.

KAI

PP/SO

(Korea Advertising Index)

(KOBACO)
. KAI 300
, 100

.
.
,
.
KAI
( =100)
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
09/4

10/4

: KOBACO

11/4

12/4

13/4

(Program Provider/System Operator)

PP, Program Provider .

TV
, .
SBS(TV 3), CJ E&M(TV),
jTBC() .
.
SO, System Operator .
,
.
PP
. 2 SO MSO(Multi
System Operator), .
TV CJ, ,
KT IPTV .
.

21

(House Advantage or Edge)

,
. .
38,
1/38
37/38.
35
. [] .
.

(Junket )

VIP
(Agent) . ()
()
, ()
.
.
(, Room Operator)

.

()

2.63%

35

92.11%

97.37%

(1)

-97.37%
-5.26%

(High Roller)

Hold

.
, , GKL
. , GKL
VIP .
(Grind Player)
.
Walk in Guest
. (?)
High Roller (?)
.
.

(Hold)

, , GKL
.
(Win) (Drop) .
Hold 15%
.
Hold .
.
Hold Drop .
Hold
(%)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1Q11

3Q11

22

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

FIT

(Inbound/Outbound)

.
, .

.
, , GKL
,
.

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
(5.0)

()

1/11

1/12

(Free Individual Tour)

(FIT: Free Individual Tour)

(Group Tour) .

.
FIT .
,
FIT
(Foreign Individual Tour) .
FGT(Foreign
Group Tour) .

1/13

.
. 2013
50 50(
40 60). 7 CJ CGV
45
55 .
10% . 9 2
.
4 3
.

.

.
.

, .
.
NEW(Next
Entertainment World) .
(
10%) .
.

23

//

.

POS(point of sales: )
. , (
2%),
,
.

.

.
00,
00
.

.
, , , .

.

.

, ,
.
, ,
,
,

. , , ,
, .

SSS

1961
1997
.

,

,
, ,
, , ,
.
2013 1 4

.
2 0 10
.

(same store sales)

.

.

.

,
.

30%

20%

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
09/01

10/01

24

11/01

12/01

13/01

MD
(merchandiser)

PB/PL

(private brand/private label)

. ,
, , ,
.
, ,
,
. MD
MD .

.
PNB(private national brand)
.
PL , ,
.

.

.
PNB PL
, PL
. PNB , ,
.
LG
H.U.Z
.

SO

MRO

(SO: system operator)

.


.
SO
.
IPTV IPTV
.
SO
.

(maintenance, repair, operation)

MRO , Maintenance, Repair, Operation

. ,
MRO
.
MRO , , ,
, .
.

25

()

(mark up)

.

.
2~3,
3~4, 5~6,
5~10, 10
.

.

.
.

.

.

.

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

markup

()

( )

(masstige)

(mass) (prestige product)

. 2004
, 21
.

.

,

.

,
() , .

LVMH(), Prada
.

ARMANI, LG
.
, ,
LG DAKS .


.

26

(woven)

OEM

(original equipment manufacturing)

(, woven) (,
knit) .
()
() .

.

.


.


ODM(original development manufacturing)
. , ,
OBM(original brand
manufacturing) .

SPA

TPP

(specialty store retailer of private label apparel)

SPA ,
PB .
1987 GAP Banana Republic
Specialty store retailer
. , , , ,



SPA SPA
,
.


.

(trans-pacific partnership)

.
2013 8 19
12 TPP
2015 ,
.

.
OEM

27

28

 //




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JNJMTVOH!TIJOZPVOHDPN





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29

 //

(NIM)

(LDR)

(Net Interest Margin)

NIM

.
(NIS:Net Interest Spread)
.
NIM .

(Loan-Deposit Ratio)

*(NIM)=(-)/

.
100%
,
. 2

100% .

8 NIM

(%)
3.2

8( )

(%)
150

8( )

3.0
100

2.8
2.6

50

2.4
0

2.2
07.1Q 08.1Q 09.1Q 10.1Q 11.1Q 12.1Q 13.1Q

06

08

09

10

11

12

13

(COFIX)
(Cost of Funds Index)

07

(CIR)
,

(COFIX)
.
,
, , (CD),
(RP), .


.

(Cost Income Ratio)

.

.
CIR
.
*
= / (++)*100

15 3
.

(%)
3
2
1
0
03

04

30

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

 //

(Asset Quality)

. ,
, CP, , .

.

(Coverage Ratio)

.
( )
. ,
, , ,

.

. 0~1

. 1~3

( ). 3

. 3~12

. 12

( )

( )

(%)

400

( )

250

300

200

200

150

100

100

50
03

05

07

09

: BS

(NPL Ratio)

BIS

(Non Performing Loan Ratio)

NPL Ratio
.
, ,
.



(%)
3

0
03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

(BIS Capital Adequacy Ratio)

11

13

BIS()

. 8%
. 2013 6
BIS 12.95%.
, BIS (Tier1) (Tier2)
,
, ,
.
BIS
Tier1
.
* BIS = BIS/ *100
BIS=+
=

31

 //

III

(Basel III)

. 2013
2019
. III
, ,
.

4.5%

Tier1 6.0%
BIS 8.0%

/100%
/100%

(hybrid) .
30
.
,

.
BIS
(Tier1)
.

. , 5
100% , 5
20% .

III

(Hybrid Bond)

/3.0%

(Adjusted Capital Adequacy Ratio)

, ,
(/
)*100 .

(Credit Cost)

,
.

.

* =-(+ +3)
* = +-
:+++
: +
:++

( ) (%)
1.0
( )

( )
2,000
1,600

0.8

1,200

0.6

800

0.4

400

0.2
0.0

0
08

09

10

11

12

: ,

32

13

 //

(Earned Premium)

,
. (
)
.
,
. , ,
1
.
*
=-+-
= +-
= -

, ,
.

* : ( )
.

.
* :
. 3%

.
* :
.

.

RBC

(Long-term Policy)

3
. ,
,

.

(Risk Based Capital Ratio)

RBC

.
RBC 300%

. 150%.
* RBC= (/)*100

(%)

RBC

()
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

()

GDP ( )

16

GDP ( )

12
8
4

05

06

07

08

: ,

09

10

11

04

03

: . 2013 6

33

 //

(EV)

(Policy Reserve)

. ,


.

.

,

.


.

(Embedded Value)

(Adjusted net asset value)

(Value in force business) .

EV
.
EV (Appraisal Value)
M&A .
EV

(Insurance Penetration)

(Loss Ratio, Persistency rate)

GDP GDP
.
10 ,
8 .

.
,
, ,
.

.
(13, 25 )
(%)
.

(%)

GDP ( )

16

GDP ( )

12
8
4

: Ernst & Young(2013 Asia-Pacific insurance outlook)

* =(/)*100
* =(/)*100

34

 //

(Trading Value, Turnover Ratio)

.
(1)
.
.

(Customers Deposit, )

, ,
.
.

.

* =*
* =(*2)*

()
12

( ) (%)
400
( )

300

6
3

( )

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

()

20

200

15

100

10

()

()

25

13

0
05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

: KRX

: KRX

(PBS)

(NCR)

(Prime Brokerage Service)

. ,
, (),
.

, 3 5
(,,,,)
. ()

PBS
.

13

(Net Capital Ratio)

() .
150%
.
, 120%
.
* NCR=(/)*100
NCR
( )
3.5
3.0

(,)

(%)
800

NCR( )
600

2.5
2.0

400

1.5

200

1.0
0.5

: . 2013 6

35

 //

36

5FM


MJNEPSJ!TIJOZPVOHDPN

5FM


MFFTVOHDIVM!TIJOZPVOHDPN

37

(Flash Memory)

(DRAM)

(, )

(Dynamic Random Access Memory, )

. EEPROM
.
MP3, , , USB
. NAND Flash 1989 Toshiba ISSCC
.


(SDD)
.

(Random Access Memory)

(Capacitor) .
1 0
.

(Dynamic) .

DRAM .

USB

DRAM

: Wekipedia

: Wekipedia

BB Ratio

PCB()

(Book-to-bill ratio)

BB ,
. BB Book to Bill
. BB (Book)
(Bill)
(SEMI)
, . BB
1.0 , 1.0 ,
1.0 .

(Printed Circuit Board)

.
Board
. Rigid()
PCB, Flexible() PCB, RF(Rigid Flexible) PCB,
PCB .

Flexible PCB
.

BB 3 BB
1.15 1.15
, 100 115
.
1.2 .

RPCB, FPCB

: Wekipedia

38

CR()
(Cost Reduction)

(Form Factor)
,

.

.

CR(Cost Reduction) .
CR
,

.
CR .
CR Supply Chain
.

(Form Factor)

, ,
IT
.
IT
Form Factor
. Rigid Display Flexible Display
Form Factor .
Form Factor

: APPLE

OS()
(Operating System)

IT

(Loading)
. OS , , Windows
OS Android(
) APPLE iOS .
OS

.
Google Android OS

: Google

(Flexible Display)

. , , TSP,


1)Unbreakable, 2)Bendable,
3)Rollable, 4)Foldable CRT, LCD,
PDP, OLED
.
Flexible Display

39

(Migration)
(Migration)

(TSP)
,

XP Vista, Icecream
Jellybean
.

.
GSM, WCMDA LTE
LTE Migration .
LTE Migration

(Touch Screen Panel)

Input


. 1) , 2)
. X, Y

GFF, G1F, G2 .

.

()
700,000

LTE()

35%

600,000

LTE ()

30%

500,000

25%

400,000

20%

300,000

15%

200,000

10%

100,000

5%

TSP

0%
2010

2011

2012

2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

: Gartner

(TDD/FDD) LTE

(BOM)

(Long Term Evolution)

Long Term Evolution 3G

.
WCDMA CDMA2000 3
4(4G) 3.9
, Wibro Evolution 4
.
, , FDD( )
, TDD( )
.
LTE(Long Term Evolution)

(Bill of Material)

, List, ,
.

.

.

BOM

:
: Google

40

(MLB)
(Multi-Layer Printed Circuit Board)

(AP)
,

(Application Processor)

, 3 .
(Through
Hole Plating) . 4~6
Multi Layer
. IVH(Interstitial Via Hole)
(HDI) .

, TV
(CPU) .
,
14mm, 1.4mm AP SP,
D, .
.
, , ARM
.

MLB

AP(Application Processor)

:
:

(FC-CSP)

(Sputtering)

(Flip Chip Chip Scale Package)

(Sputtering)

FC-CSP (BGA)
.
(MLB),
(HDI) . 70~100
(Bump)

. , ,
.

,
.

.
.
(Sputtering)

FC-CSP

41

MLCC()
(Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor)

LED()
,

(Light Emitting Diode)

.

.
TV,
.

.

, m p-n

.
90% ,
5% ,
.

MLCC

LED

OIS()

NFC

(Optical Image Stabilizer)

.


. ,

.

.

(Near Field Communication)

(RFID) 13.56MHz
.

.
() .
.
NFC

OIS(Optical Image Stabilizer)

42

FPD
(Flat Panel Display)

AMOLED

(Active Matrix OLED)

LCD, PDP .

, FPD
TV /
/
. FPD LCD TV//
/ ,
AMOLED .

. LCD LED
AMOLED
. /

. ,
.
, LG
, BOE
.

RGB / White OLED

LTPS TFT

(White OLED)

AMOLED Red, Greem Blue

.
,
.
R/G/B AMOLED .
R/G/B R/G/Bf
White OLED. White
OLED LCD .
White
OLED .

(Low Temperature Poly Silicon)

LCD
.

. AMOLED
LCD
.
, LTPS

. LTPS
. AP,
, LTPS
.

43

Oxide TFT
(Oxide Thin Film Transistor)

Thin Glass

(Thin Glass)

//

.
LCD

.
/ .
/
, Oxide
TFT .

TV 0.5mm
.
,

.
0.5mm /
0.1~0.2mm
Thin Glass .
, , , Thin
Glass .

Evaporation

Encapsulation

(Evaporation)

AMOLED R/G/B
.
.

. /

AMOLED . Tokki, Hitachi
SFA
.

44

(Encapsulation)

. R/G/B
Encapsulation
.
Encapsulation
. AMOLED Encapsulation
AP .

HTL/ETL
(Hole/Electron Transporting Layer)

PPI

(Pixel Per Inch)

AMOLED (Hole : )
(Electron : )
.

HTL(Hole Tranporting Layer : )
ETL(Electron Transporting Layer : ). HTL
, ETL LG ,
ETL .

1 (Pixel Per
Inch)
. 50 TV Full HD
44PPI 5 Full HD
440PPI
. 300PPI

.

(Large Area Display)

10 //TV
. 10


.
10 /

.

(Panel Price)

,
,
. Display Search / Witsview / Display
Bank 1~2
.

.
.

45

T-Con / Driver IC
(Timing Controller / Driver IC)

DID/PID

(Digital/Public Information Display)

.
. Timing Controller
,
Driver IC Timing Controller
.
Timing Controller
Driver IC . , .,

.

Digital Information Display / Public Information
Display .
.

TV / . ,
DID
.

(Transparent Display)

TFT

. 10~20%

.
DID
.
.

46

(Rechargeable Battery)

.
Ni-Cd,
,
. NiCd,
, .

. SDI LG
.




5FM


DIPJZVONFF!TIJOZPVOHDPN

47

(frequency)

LTE-A

1
. (Hz)
1 1 1Hz .

. FM
88~108MHz , TV 54~72MHz,
76~88MHz, 174~216MHz, 470~806MHz
6MHz .
1770~1785MHz
1805~1880MHz 2500~2670MHz
2620~2690MHz
.

(long term evolution-advanced)

(CA: carrier aggregation)

.
150Mbps
(100Mbps) 1
18.75MB .
LTE-A 2013 6 SK
.
LTE-A

: SK

LTE

LTE
.

.
KT 9 14
1.8GHz
150Mbps .
2 LTE-A
LTE

.

(mobile number portability)

.
.


.
2013 9

48

(MVNO)

SAC

(mobile virtual network operator)

(MVNO)

(SKT, KT, LGU+)
. 2012 6

.
3
2011 7
. CJ,
, .

(subscriber acquisition cost)

1 .


.
1997 PCS
2003
.
LTE

2012 12, 3
.

: Google

ARPU

Page view

(average revenue per user)

.

.
ARPU
.

, 1 1
. (hit)
,

.

.

ARPU
(: )

2011

2012

2013.2Q

SKT

33,178

33,016

34,012

KT

28,826

30,697

31,615

LGT

25,641

29,473

33,834

29,215

31,062

33,154

49

(unique visitor)

DAU

(daily active user)

. , , ,

.
,
.

.
1 .

.
active user
. DAU

.
DAU
.

MAU

CBT

(monthly active user)

.
MAU DAU
.


. MAU
MAU .

50

(closed beta test)

.
.

.
CBT PC
. PC
CBT
.
CBT
.

OBT
(open beta test)

MMORPG

(CBT)
.
.


.

(massive multiplayer online role playing game)

,

. MMORPG
, , .
MMORPG RPG(role playing game)
.

,
.
MMORPG

AOS
(aeon of strife)

TCG

. League of
Legends . AOS
( ) Aeon of Strife
.
AOS

.

.

e
.

(trading card game)

. TCG
, , .
TCG
. TCG

.
TCG

51

52




5FM


LJNKBFIPOH!TIJOZPVOHDPN

5FM


IPOHKVOHIZF!TIJOZPVOHDPN





5FM


MFFLZVOHTPP!TIJOZPVOHDPN

53

.
. ,
, 10
.
100
. OECD
.

.
.
,
.
1970
. 2009 2
.

106
104
102
100
98
96

94
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

,
,
. ,
,
.
.

,
.
.



.

54

(seasonal adjustments)

. ,

.

.
.

.

.
.

.

15 ()
. (
)

.

.

.

. 1


.

1
.

.


.



.

15

.

. ,
.


.

.
1
.
1~2

.
.
.

,
.
.

.

( ,%)
7

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

55

(BSI, Business Survey Index)

.
, ,
. ,
. , , ,
, . 0~200
100 100
.

.
()
. ,
. ,
. , , ,
8
. 0 0
.

120
100

(p)

80

40

60

20

40
20

BSI

-20

BSI

-40

-60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

(dollar index)

.
1 1000
.
.

.
,
, , , , ,
7
.

OITP(other important trading partner)
.
OITP
.

56

(beige book)

(FOMC)
. 12
. FOMC

. 1983

.
2005

. , , , ,

(Debt Limit, Debt Ceiling)

.

.

. 2013 9
16 7 .
2011 8

S&P .

()
20

15
10
5

(non-farm payroll)

.
.
,


.
.

,
.

. ,
.

0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

(Citigroup Economic Surprise)

.
Citi .

.
,
3 .

0 .

. GDP

(%p) = GDP X
(%) = ( / GDP ) X 100

100% .

.

150

100

50
0
-50

) 2012 A GDP 5%
2%p,
40%.

-100
-150
11

12

13

: Citi

57

, ,

(Export Similarity Index)

.
.
.
.

, 1 , 2
.
.

.
.

. C A B
100 , 0 . A
B
100 . A B
A
B .

(Real Effective Exchange Rate)

)
A C
70%, 20%, 10%
B C
50%, 30%, 20%
= 0.5X100 + 0.2X100 = 70
(B ) (A )

.

.

.
.
.
100 100
.

2012 12
. (nomics)
. ,
.
20
. , ,
.
60~70 2014
270 (2012 138),
,
,
.
,
.

140

120
100
80
60
94

96

: BIS

58

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

(quantitative easing)

. 2008
12 MBS
, 2009 3
. 2008
9, 0.9
2013 3 .
tapering .

( )
4

(annualizing)

, 1
.
100 1200
.
X12
.
,
, , GDP

. 1 () 36
3 .

.

2
1
0
03 04

05 06

07 08

09

10 11

12 13

GDP

(moving average)

.
.
.
. 3
1, 2, 3 3
.

(,%)
60

40
20
0
-20

(potential GDP)

GDP.
.
GDP
. GDP GDP
.
GDP (gap) GDP GDP
. GDP GDP GDP
.
.

. GDP
GDP GDP
.

-40
05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

59

.

.
.

.
.

(carry trade)

.
.
.
,
,
.
,

. ,
,
, ,
.

.

(Taylor rule)

1993
.
, GDP

.

.

.
, ,
.
.
, ,
.
M1 , ,
.
. M1 ,
M2 . M2
. Lf(
), L()
,
. M3 .
,
.

(%)

10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6

taylor

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

60

ESM

FOMC

(European Stability Mechanism).

EFSF(European
Financial Stability Facility), EFSM(European Financial
Stabilisation Mechanism) 2012 10 8
.
.

(paid in capital; 800 )
. 6200
(callable capital) ,

.
, 5000
.

(Federal Open Market Committee).

(FRB, Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve system)
. 1 8
. (
) (
) .
7 5
12 . 5
1 ,
4 11 1 .
FOMC
,
. GDP,
. FOMC 3
.

Ifo

ISM , PMI

(Ifo Business Climate Index)

Ifo institute .
, , , ,
7000
6
. .
.
Ifo 2005 100 .
Ifo
(p)
120

Ifo

(Institute for Supply Management)

(ISM) .

.
.
,

.
PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) ISM
.
ISM

110

(p)

ISM

100

70

ISM

90

60

80

50
40

70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

61

(Duration)

( )

, 1
.
()
.
ex. 8 1bp
8/10000
- Convexity()
.

(Maturity)

(YTM = Yield to Maturity)

.

.

( )
.

.
,
, ,
.

. ,
.

(Coupon Rate)

,
1, 3
, 6 .

1) , 2)

.

ex. 03375-2309(13-6) ,
3.375% 100
3.375, 6
( 2) .

ex. 03375-2309(13-6) ,
2023 9 10 10 .

.

62

(Yield Curve)

.


. , .

.
( >
) ,
.
( < )
.

(Laddered Maturity strategy)

(Buy and Hold strategy)

.

.
, ()

.

,

.


.



.

,
.

(Barbell Maturity strategy)

,
() .

.

.



.
.



.
63

(monetary policy)

()

(
)
(, )
() ,

.()
, ,
.

(Monetary Policy Committee)

(Central Bank, Bank of Korea)

,
, ,
, (), ,
, .

Fed (Federal Reserve Bank, )
- ECB (European Central Bank)
BOE (Bank of England)
BOJ (Bank of Japan)

()

7 .

.
, 2
,
.
7
5

.

.()

(Base Rate)

(RP) ,
. 7
RP , 7 RP
(minimum bid rate) .
, ,

.
, ,

.()

(%)
8.0

ECB
BOE

6.0

BOJ
FED

4.0
2.0
0.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

: Bloomberg

64

(Inflation Targeting)

. ""

.
3
. 2013~2015
() 2.5~3.5% .


.()

(YoY, %)
7
6
5

4
3
2
1
0
00.1 01.7 03.1 04.7 06.1 07.7 09.1 10.7 12.1 13.7

: ECOS

65

(EPS)
(Earning Per Share)

(PER)

(lPrice Earning Ratio)

(EPS) ()
.
EPS= /
1
1
. EPS
. EPS
,
. EPS
,
.
EPS
. (PER)

. PER
, 1
. 66000
1 12000 PER 5.5 .
PER
PER
. PER

.

(ROE)

(PBR)

(Return On Equity)

,
. ,
, ,
.

,
.

66

(Price Book-value Ratio)

PBR= /
(BPS, book value per share)
1 .
( , )
1
.
(
+) .

. PBR
.
PBR 1 1

.
, PBR 1 (
) .

(OPM)
(rate of operating profits)

(Sentiment)

(Sentiment)

.

.



.



.

.
.

. VIX, , TIPS, TED
Spread, , ,
, .
,

,
.

.

(IR)

,
. ( PER / PER -1) X 100
.
. ,
PER 7 PER 10 ,
30% .
,
.

(Information Ratio)

,

.

. IR = (
) / .
.

67

67

Index
[]

B/D
BTX
CDU
NCC
PV
[ ]

(,, )
(, )

&( )
( )

(,, )

[/]

BAF
BDI
FPSO
PSS
SCFI/CCFI
TEU/FEU

68

5
7
5
6
5
4
4
6
4
5
4
6
6

11
8
10
9
11
10
8
9
8
8
11
9
9
10
11
10

15
15
16
17
17
14
14
15
15
14
17
16
16
17
16
14

[]
4

ATL
KAI
PP/SO

20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21

[]

23
23

[]

FIT
Hold

22
23
22
22
23
22

[]
//

/
MD
MRO
PB/PL
SO
SSS

24
24
24
25
25
25
25
24

[]

()

OEM
SPA
TPP

26
26
26
27
26
27
27
27

[]
(NPL Ratio)

III
(NIM)

(LDR)

31
32
31
32
30
32
30
31

(COFIX)
(CIR)
BIS

32
30
30
31

[]

(EV)

RBC

33
34
34
33
34
33
34
33

[]
,
,
(NCR)
(PBS)

35
35
35
35

[]
(TDD/FDD) LTE
(MLB)
(DRAM)
(Migration)
(BOM)
(Sputtering)
(AP)
(TSP)
(Form Factor)
(Flash Memory)

(FC-CSP)
BB Ratio
CR()
LED()
MLCC()
NFC
OIS()
OS()
PCB()

40
41
38
40
40
41
41
40
39
38
39
41
38
39
42
42
42
42
39
38

[]
2



AMOLED
DID/PID
Encapsulation

46
45
46
45
43
46
44

Index
Evaporation
FPD
HTL/ETL
LTPS TFT
Oxide TFT
PPI
RGB / White OLED
T-Con / Driver IC
Thin Glass

44
43
45
43
44
45
43
46
44

[]
LTE

(MVNO)

ARPU
LTE-A
Page view
SAC

48
48
49
48
49
48
49
49

[]

50

[]
AOS
CBT
DAU
MAU
MMORPG
OBT
TCG

51
50
50
50
51
51
51

[]

,
, ,

54
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
58
58
58

GDP

ESM
FOMC
Ifo
ISM , PMI

58
59
59
59
59
60
60
60
60
61
61
61
61

[]

()
()

64
62
62
63
62
65
63
63
63
64
64
64
62

[]

(Sentiment)
(OPM)
(ROE)
(IR)
(PER)
(PBR)
(EPS)

67
67
67
66
67
66
66
66

69

Index
[]

(NPL Ratio)
//

LTE

15
11
35
33
54
54
54
54
35
5
8
55
31
24
20
48
55
55
64
55
56

[]
(EV)

34
10

[]
(MLB)

(DRAM)

41
56
56
32
31
45
62
38

[]

26

[]
(Migration)

40
62
63
62
26
65
20

[]

63

70

III
(,, )

()

(, )

(BOM)

32
9
20
26
67
48
15
56
34
11
23
57
40
57

[]

,
(Sentiment)
, ,
,

(NIM)
(Sputtering)

63
33
57
7
10
57
67
58
34
63
58
50
30
41
5
22
16
32
58

[]

(MVNO)

(AP)

(NCR)
(OPM)

(LDR)

58
49
8
59
41
17
59
9
35
67
23
30
6
17

/
/

27
24
5
59
23
24

[]
(ROE)

GDP

(IR)

()

(PER)
(PBR)
(EPS)

()

66
31
59
33
60
14
8
67
26
4
4
64
22
8
32
66
66
66
48
11
64

[]

&( )
( )
/

34
9
9
14
21

[]

(COFIX)

60
15
30

[]

(TSP)

15
40
60
64
60
46
10

Index
[]
(CIR)
(,, )

(Form Factor)

(PBS)
(Flash Memory)

(FC-CSP)

30
11
45
6
39
62
14
35
38
39
41

[]

22
10

[A~Z]
AMOLED
AOS
ARPU
ATL
B/D
BAF
BB Ratio
BDI
BIS
BTX
CBT
CDU
CR()
DAU
DID/PID
Encapsulation
ESM
Evaporation
FIT
FOMC
FPD
FPSO
Hold
HTL/ETL
Ifo
ISM , PMI
KAI
LED()
LTE-A
LTPS TFT
MAU
MD
MLCC()

43
51
49
21
4
17
38
16
31
5
50
4
39
50
46
44
61
44
23
61
43
16
22
45
61
61
21
42
48
43
50
25
42

MMORPG
MRO
NCC
NFC
OBT
OEM
OIS()
OS()
Oxide TFT
Page view
PB/PL
PCB()
PP/SO
PPI
PSS
PV
RBC
RGB / White OLED
SAC
SCFI/CCFI
SO
SPA
SSS
TCG
T-Con / Driver IC
TEU/FEU
Thin Glass
TPP
(TDD/FDD) LTE
2
4

51
25
6
42
51
27
42
39
44
49
25
38
21
45
17
6
33
43
49
16
25
27
24
51
46
14
44
27
40
46
20

71