(092070)

BUY(Reinitiate)

(9/19) 17,650

DTP, High-k, HCDS,

SOC
. ,
3
,
.

.
,

.

30,000

2014. 9. 22

IT
Analyst
02) 3787-5063
bkkim@kiwoom.com
RA 02) 3787-4740
sulee@kiwoom.com

Contents

(092070)

Stock Data
KOSDAQ (9/19)

581.38pt

1,827

52

17,950

8,550

-1.67%

106.43%

15.0%

11.3%

6M

50.2%

40.1%

1Y

107.2%

87.8%

1M

Company Data
()

10,353

(3M)

147

2.16%

(14.E)

0.00%

BPS(14.E )

2,928

()

> . 30,000
> DRAM NAND
>

II. Valuation

3
3

> : 14 158, 15 243

4
> 5
> 30,000 . Valuation premium 6

5.87%

DPT

35.77%

HCDS

25.08%

High-k

19.04%

Price Trend
()

20,000

20.10%

(14E)

I.

(%)
100

()

80
15,000
60
10,000

III.

>
>
>
>

DPT

High-k

HCDS
SOC

9
10

40
20

5,000
0
0

-20
'13/9

'14/1

'14/5

'14/9

()

200

14 - 17 CAGR

148

35%, 42%

150

116

100

50

86

13
1

25
2

60

27
1

21

16

24

35

45

-9

-50
2010

2012

2014E

2016E

9 19 (092070) 1%
.
3 .

.
,
.

I.
. 30,000
/ 30,000, Buy
. 12 Forward EPS target PER 16 .
High-k, HCDS, ACL, SOD DPT, SOC
. 3D
.
. 14
.

DRAM NAND
. High-k, DPT DRAM
. 4Q13 HDCS 3D NAND NAND
Flash . 4MS
. DRAM
.

. 15
. 15
.
. Air Product, Air Liquid
.

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

()

272

206

596

864

1,162

()

99

271

404

558

()

10

-88

158

243

347

EBITDA()

41

-49

191

282

386

()

-6

-123

139

228

340

()

-134

125

194

272

()

-134

125

194

272

50

-1,424

1,210

1,872

2,629

EPS()

-74.7

N/A

N/A

54.7

40.4

PER()

261.7

-7.3

14.6

9.5

6.7

PBR()

4.0

5.7

6.0

3.7

2.4

EV/EBITDA()

37.1

-27.0

11.1

7.0

4.5

(%)

36.3

4.3

45.5

46.7

48.0

(%)

3.7

-42.9

26.4

28.1

29.9

ROE(%)

1.6

-56.2

52.6

48.5

43.0

99.7

201.0

95.4

26.1

-14.4

(%YoY)

(%)

II. Valuation
: 14 158, 15 243
1Q14 . HCDS, High-k, DPT
. .
.
. 05 . 10
14 .
1Q14 27, 2Q14 40 . 3Q14
164(+182%YoY, +10%QoQ), 43(+969%YoY, +7%QoQ) 3
. ,
.
14 596(+189%YoY), 158(YoY )
. 15 864(+45%YoY), 243(+28%YoY) . 15
1) DRAM (S3) , 2) , 3)
.
(:
1Q14
()

YoY
QoQ

11.1

)
2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
14.9

16.4

17.1

17.9

20.6

23.9

24.0

189.9% 245.6% 182.2% 157.8%

67.0% 34.2% 10.4%
4.2%

61.4%
4.6%

38.5%
15.1%

45.5%
15.9%

39.9%
0.2%

2012

2013

2014E

27.2

20.6

59.6

2015E
86.4

7.3% -24.2% 189.0%

45.1%

DPT

4.1

5.2

5.9

6.1

6.2

6.4

6.7

6.8

4.3

10.0

21.3

26.0

High-k

1.2

2.7

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.8

6.6

6.8

0.1

0.7

11.3

22.2

HCDS

3.3

4.5

4.0

3.2

3.1

4.2

4.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

14.9

15.8

SOC

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.6

2.0

2.8

3.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

9.9

ACL

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

7.7

5.3

4.9

4.8

Others

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

15.1

4.1

6.1

7.8

-4.8

4.9

6.7

7.7

7.7

8.0

9.4

11.3

11.0

7.1

14.6

36.5

4.0

4.3

4.7

4.6

5.5

6.9

7.4

1.0

-8.8

15.8

24.3

968.9%
46.5%
7.1%

7.8%

66.9%
-1.4%

36.3%
19.7%

58.9%
24.9%

58.3% -51.1%
7.4%

54.3%

-13.4

12.5

19.4

2.7

YoY
QoQ

2.5

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.5

4.3

5.5

6.0

0.5

(%)

-43%

33%

41%

45%

43%

39%

39%

47%

40%

35%

24%

42%

(%)

25%

27%

26%

27%

26%

27%

29%

31%

4%

-43%

26%

28%

(%)

23%

20%

20%

21%

20%

21%

23%

25%

2%

-65%

21%

22%

DPT

37%

35%

36%

35%

34%

31%

28%

28%

16%

49%

36%

30%

High-k

11%

18%

22%

22%

22%

23%

28%

28%

0%

4%

19%

26%

HCDS

29%

30%

24%

19%

17%

20%

19%

17%

0%

2%

25%

18%

SOC

0%

0%

0%

6%

9%

10%

12%

14%

0%

0%

2%

11%

ACL

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

28%

26%

8%

6%

Others

12%

9%

10%

11%

11%

10%

9%

7%

56%

20%

10%

9%


14 /
. .
. ,
.
2000 .
IPS, , , , ,
. , , ,
. , , , PR
(process chemical) ,
.
. High-k
(functional chemical) .
specialty , . ,

.
.
.
. , 3
.
.
.

()
200

14 - 17 CAGR
35%, 42%

148

150

116
86

100
60

50

13

27

25

21

2010

2011

2012

16

24

35

45

-9

-50
2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

30,000 . Valuation premium

30,000 . 12 Forward EPS target PER 16
. Target PER (precursor) ,
, , , , 6 PER
20.2 20% .
,
.

peer group .
.
, target multiple
.
Peer Group (:

2013
Air
2014E
Product
2015E
2013
Air
2014E
Liquid
2015E
2013
Sigma
2014E
-Aldrich
2015E
2013
Shin-Etsu
2014E
Chemical
2015E
2013
Nissan
2014E
Chemical
2015E
2013
Adeka
2014E
2015E
2013

2014E
2015E
2013

2014E
2015E
:
: ,

1,566
1,648
1,835
3,428
3,499
3,818
661
721
768
1,736
1,797
1,960
138
141
164
222
233
250

994
1,233
1,385
2,179
2,180
2,431
491
522
561
1,135
1,194
1,302
91
102
113
167
176
185

21
60
86

-9
16
24

-13
13
19

20,000

PER
19.4
23.2
20.7
19.5
20.0
18.1
23.1
23.7
22.0
22.1
23.7
21.6
13.4
13.8
12.5
15.2
16.8
15.9
18.8
20.2
18.5
-7.3
14.6
9.5

PBR EV/EBITDA
3.2
11.7
3.6
13.2
3.3
12.1
3.0
10.1
2.9
10.3
2.7
9.5
3.9
13.6
3.8
13.8
3.5
13.0
1.4
7.3
1.6
8.8
1.6
8.2
0.9
5.2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1.8
8.3
2.1
9.5
1.9
8.9
2.4
9.3
2.8
11.1
2.6
10.4
5.7
-27.0
6.0
11.0
3.7
7.0

Price

16.0x

13.0x

10.0x

7.0x

P/B Band

()
30,000

4.0x

Price

5.0x

25,000

4.0x

3.0x

20,000

2.0x

1.0x

15,000

15,000

10,000

10,000

5,000

5,000
0

0
'08

ROE
14.7%
16.4%
17.0%
15.8%
14.9%
15.4%
18.1%
17.0%
15.9%
6.8%
7.1%
7.4%
6.6%
7.2%
7.9%
12.7%
12.8%
12.5%
12.4%
12.6%
12.7%
-56.2%
52.6%
48.5%

PBR
P/E Band

25,000

OPM
15.4%
15.7%
16.4%
16.9%
17.3%
17.6%
24.4%
25.8%
26.3%
14.9%
15.8%
16.6%
6.8%
6.7%
7.3%
13.6%
14.2%
14.7%
15.3%
15.9%
16.5%
-42.9%
26.4%
28.1%

, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Nissan Chemical, Adeka 3

PER
()
30,000

, , %, )

10,180
10,516
11,180
20,224
20,256
21,670
2,704
2,796
2,923
11,641
11,345
11,795
2,041
2,107
2,232
1,634
1,644
1,703

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

III.
DPT(Double Patterning Technology) , High-k
, HCDS(Hexachlorodisilane), SOC(Spin on Carbon) .
.

DPT
DPT 30nm .
20~40nm 193nm (ArF)
. ArF 40~60
20~30 .
DPT

DPT 2Q12
. .
DPT . DPT 20 4, 20
5, 20 7 . DRAM 25
14 30% 14 70% , 22 DRAM
2Q14 14 20% .
DPT 13 100 14 213 113%YoY
. 15 S3 DRAM . 14
35k/ DRAM 15
. , DPT
. DPT 15 260 14 22%YoY
.

High-k
High-k , DRAM 65nm
. High-k SiO2 DRAM
, Gate ,
. High-k 3Q13
. 4Q13 6 2Q14 52
, 2H14 .
High-k vs SiO2

SiO2

High-k

Capacitance

1.6

Leakage

<0.01

DRAM High-k Adeka

. 14 , 15
DRAM High-k
. High-k 14 113 15 222 96%YoY
.
/
Process

CVD

ALD

Interconnect

Capacitors

Low-k Barrier

Litho Spacers

Gapfill

Barrier/seed

PVD

ECD

SOD

Interconnect Barrier

Interconnect metal

Gapfill

AMAT
TEL

TEL

Novellus

Hitachi Kokusai

ASM

Wonik-IPS

Wonik-IPS

Genitech

AMAT

Novellus
AMAT

TEL

TES
Air Products

Air Liquide
Linde
ATMI
DNF

Air Products
Air Liquide

Nikko

ATMI

Adeka

Praxair

DEM

SAFC

Honeywell

BASF

DNF

Tosoh

MLI

UP Chem

AZEM
UP Chem
DNF

HCDS
HCDS(Hexachlorodisilane) DRAM NAND Flash , SiO SiN
. 4Q13
HCDS , 1Q14 .
14 ,
. .
HCDS 13 5 , 14 149 . 15 158
, .
HCDS 3D NAND .
HCDS . 24 V 3Q13
8 32 V .
, V Capa HCDS . 14 V
SK, NAND 15~16 V
HCDS .
HCDS NAND Flash . DPT
DRAM NAND DRAM , High-k DRAM
. DRAM . 14
HCDS ,
.

()
160

ACL,

100%

140

SOC

120

High-k

100

HCDS

80

ACL,

SOC

High-k

HCDS

DPT

2015E

2016E

2017E

80%
60%

DPT

40%

60
40

20%

20
0

0%
2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

2012

2013

2014E

SOC
SOC(Spin on Carbon) Spin coating .
SOH(Spin on Hardmask) .
, 2,000 .
SOC .
.
, 4Q14 .
SOC . (PR)
/ .
PR
. SiO2
SiN substrate . CVD
. CVD , ,
.
.
SOC 2~3 .
SOC 15 99, 16 244 .
15 11%, 16 25% .
SOC

10


12

(: )

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

12

272

206

596

864

1,162

173

197

324

460

604

99

271

404

558

88

97

114

161

()

10

-88

158

()

(: )
2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

201

127

271

389

590

11

54

118

271

23

12

17

23

211

31

28

50

72

97

243

347

141

83

149

173

187

10

-88

158

243

347

-16

-34

-19

-15

-7

33

415

384

21

28

27

20

12

43

15

-8

11

-6

-123

139

228

340

-11

12

14

34

68

178.4%

-9.6%

9.8%

15.0%

20.0%

-134

125

194

272

-134

125

194

272

EBITDA

41

-49

191

282

386

(CashEarnings)

36

-95

159

232

311

-136

125

194

272

(%)

()

(%, YoY)

12

483

451

472

489

513

12

36

41

47

395

401

413

30

30

30

30

12

683

578

743

878

1,103

160

270

299

261

236

18

15

43

61

80

82

102

114

99

79

51

144

124

77

45

18

25

32

218

135

141

120

97

200

118

118

90

60

18

17

24

30

38

378

405

440

381

334

47

47

52

52

52

104

104

104

104

104

141

132

326

598

14

15

15

15

15

7.3

-24.2

189.0

45.1

34.4

()

-51.1

N/A

N/A

54.3

42.8

()

-51.1

N/A

N/A

54.3

42.8

305

173

303

497

769

EBITDA

-12.4

N/A

N/A

47.3

37.1

305

173

303

497

769

-74.7

N/A

N/A

54.7

40.4

EPS

-74.7

N/A

N/A

54.7

40.4

304

348

289

130

-111

-49.4

N/A

N/A

54.7

40.4

333

364

356

266

184

2012

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

12

(: )

2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

-2

105

206

293

-134

125

194

272

EPS

50

-1,424

1,210

1,872

2,629

28

36

31

36

36

BPS

3,234

1,835

2,928

4,800

7,428

EBITDA

437

-521

1,847

2,720

3,730

CFPS

380

-1,009

1,536

2,244

3,006

DPS

-29

-23

-59

-27

-19

PER

261.7

-7.3

14.6

9.5

6.7

-2

115

-4

-4

PBR

4.0

5.7

6.0

3.7

2.4

-138

-13

-60

-58

-66

EV/EBITDA

37.1

-27.0

11.1

7.0

4.5

-21

14

-9

-11

-12

PCFR

34.2

-10.3

11.5

7.9

5.9

-115

-31

-42

-42

-48

()

3.7

-42.9

26.4

28.1

29.9

-6

-3

-3

-3

()

3.7

-42.9

26.4

28.1

29.9

-6

-3

-3

EBITDA margin

15.2

-23.9

32.1

32.6

33.2

126

20

-1

-84

-74

1.7

-65.3

21.0

22.4

23.4

43

-30

12

-15

-20

(ROE)

1.6

-56.2

52.6

48.5

43.0

83

60

-20

-75

-62

(ROIC)

-1.4

-17.4

22.1

31.2

42.3

123.8

233.6

145.2

76.7

43.4

-10

99.7

201.0

95.4

26.1

-14.4

-6

44

64

153

0.5

N/A

5.8

12.3

29.9

11

11

54

118

13.8

Gross Cash Flow

Op Free Cash Flow

12

(: , , %)

2012

()

()

(%)

(%)

()
()

11

54

118

271

8.5

7.0

15.3

14.2

36

21

164

232

311

2.1

1.8

5.1

5.4

6.4

-126

-112

50

151

233

12.1

12.5

20.8

16.7

16.5

11

(2)

2012/09/11

BUY(Maintain)

13,000

(092070)

2012/11/21

BUY(Maintain)

13,000

2012/11/26

BUY(Maintain)

20,000

2014/09/22

BUY(Reinitiate)

30,000

()

40,000

30,000

20,000
10,000
0
12/9/22

13/9/22

14/9/22

12

(6)

(6)

Buy()

+20%

Overweight ()

+10%

Outperform( )

+10+20%

Neutral ()

+10-10%

Marketperform()

+10-10%

Underweight ()

-10%

Underperform( )

-10-20%

Sell()

-20%