NHY CA TIN CY V NG DNG VO VIC CHN

PHNG N THIT K HP L

ThS. NGUYN TRNG H
Trng i hc Vinh

1. M u
Bi ton nhy ca cc tham s thit k c nghin cu trong cc cng trnh [2, 4, 6, 7]. Tuy
nhin trong cc cng trnh vic tm ra tham s thit k theo hai quan im tin nh mang li hiu
qu cha cao v qu trnh tnh ton v phn tch l tng i phc tp.
Trong cc cng trnh trn, phim hm p ng c chn l cc hm trng lng, gi thnh,
chuyn v hay hm rng buc xc sut,..
i vi ngi thit k cng trnh th an ton l vn quan trng. Ngi ta cn nghin cu s
bin thin ca cht lng cng trnh khi cc tham s thit k thay i ring r hay ng thi.
tin cy l ch tiu an ton quan trng nht ca cng trnh. Nu ta chn phim hm p ng ca
bi ton l tin cy th li gii ca bi ton nhy s gip cho vic nh gi cht lng cng trnh
theo tng tham s thit k, t ci tin phng n thit k mt cch nhanh chng v hp l.
Trong bi bo ny, tc gi xin gii thi u phng php xc nh nhy ca cc tham s thit k
trong phim hm p ng l tin cy ca cng trnh v phng php ci tin phng n thit k
theo nhy ca tin cy.
Ni dung bi bo bao gm:
- Pht biu bi ton nhy vi hm p ng l ti n cy;
- nhy ca mt hm tt nh;
- nhy ca mt i lng ngu nhi n;
- p dng vo chn phng n thi t k hp l bng mt v d bi ton tm un.
2. Pht biu bi ton nhy ca tin cy
Xt mt cng trnh vi cc tham s thit k l vct { },
i
e e =

y cc tham s thit k c
hiu l din tch mt ct ngang, chiu di, chiu rng v hng s vt liu ca cc yu t. Ngoi ra
ti trng cng c coi l tham s thit k.
Chng hn,

P l vc t ti trng ngoi th ta t =

0
P P ,

0
P l vct xc nh trc (ti trng c
s), khi thay i th

P thay i theo hng ca

0
P . Nu

0
P thay i tu th ta chn
( )
{ }
=

0
i i
P P
cc
i
thay i mt cch c lp, cc
( ) 0
i
P xc nh trc.
Cc tham s thi t k c th l i lng tt nh ngu nhin, hm tt nh ngu nhin hay qu
trnh ngu nhin. Do , ni chung ti n cy l mt hm thi gian.
Trng hp tng qut tin cy ( ) P t c xc nh nh sau:
( )
0
( , ) ( , )
( , ) ( , )
( , )
0,
S rob
Lu x q x
Mu x v x
P t P f v x
t
x V
t t
t t
t
t

=

=


= eO (
`


e (


e
)

(1)
Trong :
= (

1
...
n
x x x - l bin khng gian (cc im trn cng trnh);

u - l bin trng thi: chuyn v, ng sut, vt nt, ph thuc vo thi gian t v bin khng gi an;

v - l bin cht lng, c th trng hoc khc bi n trng thi

; u
t t =

( , ) ( , ) Lu x q x - l phng trnh trng thi;
t t =

( , ) ( , ) Mu x v x - l php bin i t bin trng thi qua bin cht lng (v d nh t chuyn v
qua bin dng, ni lc qua ng sut);
( ) t ( eO


0
, f v x - th hin iu kin an ton, O
0
l bin an ton;
V - l min cng trnh chim trong khng gian;
| | t e 0,t - k n mi thi im t 0 (khi a cng trnh vo s dng) n thi im kim tra
cht lng cng trnh t.
Trong trng hp ring V.V. Bolotin a ra biu thc ( ) P t :
( )
( ) { } 0 rob
P , , 0, P t f v r V t t (

= eO e e

(2)
Bi ton nhy ca cc tham s thit k vi phim hm p ng l tin cy l bi ton tm
grai ent ca ( ) P t theo cc tham s thit k e
i
. Tc l tm:

e e
c c
=
`
c c
)

( )
i
P t P
(3)
Ch rng: ( ) t P l i lng tt nh, cn cc tham s thit k c th l ngu nhin. Nu cc
tham s thit k khng ngu nhin th ta c bi ton nhy tt nh.
3. Phng php xc nh nhy ca tin cy
Gi tr vct
e
c
`
c
) i
P
ni ln tc bin thin ca phim hm tin cy theo cc tham s thi t k.
Nh ta c th iu ch nh mt cch hp l (trong iu kin nht nh) t c hiu qu cao
nht.
Trng hp tng qut: khng mt tnh cht tng qut ta xt trng hp xc sut tin cy ph
thuc mt h bt ng thc :
( ) { } ( ) rob
P : 0, 1,
i
P i n e e = s =

(4)
Tuyn tnh ho cc hm
i
quanh gi tr k vng e

E ca e

ta c:
( ) ( ) . ...
i
i i i
i
E

e e e
e
c
= + A +
c

B qua cc s hng bc cao ta c:
( ) ( )
0, 1,
rob ij
P P E j n e e = + A s =

(5)
Trong ,
i
e A l cc i lng ngu nhin nh.
Nh vy bi ton dn n tm xc sut ng thi tho mn mt h bt ng thc tuyn tnh ca
cc i lng ngu nhi n.
Ngay vic tnh (5) cng gp nhiu kh khn, cho n nay cha c phng php hu hiu. iu
ng ch l cc phng php hin hnh [3] i hi s thng tin qu l n, thc t khng p ng
c. p ng cc i hi ca thc t, khi xt cc h thng c xc sut an ton cao v s c l
cc bin c him (xc sut b) chng hn i vi cc cng trnh xy dng c thit k mt cch
nghim tc th ngi ta dng dng gn ng ca (5) nh sau:
( ) min 0
rob ij i i
j
P P Ee e
| |
~ + A s
`
|
\ . )

(6)
iu ny trng vi quan nim quen thuc trong xy dng l kim tra an ton mt kt cu (h yu
t) no ta ch cn kim tra ti cc tit di n nguy him (ni c ng sut, mmen, chuyn v, t

cc tr). Mt cch tnh khc xc sut c trnh by trong [3]. Khi c cch tnh tin cy P(t) th ta
tnh c biu thc gn ng
( ) ( )
i i
P t P t
e e
c A

~
`
c A

)

Trng hp ring, khi xc sut ti n cy ch ph thuc mt i u kin:
( ) ( )
rob
P { : ( ) } F x x

e e = <


( )
( )
, ( ) ( )
x
dF x
g x F x g xdx
dx

= =
}

Nu ( ) e

l i lng ngu nhi n chun hoc nu khng tho mn gi thit th ta dng php
bin i Rachwiz Fiessl er, a v chun c lp th:
rob
P ( ( ) 1
x a
P x
S
e
(
| |
(
|
\ .

= < = +u

(7)
Trong a l k vng ton, S l sai lch chun ca ( ) e vu l hm Laplace.
( )
2
2
0
2
2
t x
x e dt
t

u =
}

V vy vic tnh
i
P P
e e
c c
=
`
c c
)

c th tin hnh d dng.

1
2
i i
P
e e
c cu
=
c c
m .
i i
t
t e e
cu cu c
=
c c c
vi

=
x a
t
S

K vng
( ),
i i
a e e =

l k vng ca
i
e
S = const
m
1
,
i i
t a
S e e
c c
=
c c
t

cu
=
c
2
2
2
2
x
e
t
ta c:
( ) ( )
2
2
2
.
2
x
i i
P x
e
e

e e
t

c <
c
=
c c

(8)
Cc bin thit k cha trong a, ta xt s bin thin ngu nhi n quanh gi tr trung bnh.
Nh ta bit, ng dng trong cng tc thit k ngi ta tm xc sut an ton ph thuc vo
gi tr ca h s an ton m.
Xt cho trng hp ng sut mt chiu, o l mt i lng ngu nhi n c gi l ng sut thc
th
o , k vng ca ng sut thc l ng sut tnh ton
tt
o .
Nu chn iu kin an ton l
th tt
o o < th o l i lng ngu nhin chun ta c ( ) 0, 5
th tt
P o o < = .
nng cao an ton, ta c th chn
o
o =
0
tt
m
.
Khi tnh ton theo ng sut cho php ta c th chn
0
o l gi tr trung bnh thng k gi tr bn
ca vt liu, n c xc nh theo kt qu thc nghim.
Theo cng thc:
( )
(
| |
s = +u
(
|
\ .

1
1
2 S
a
P X (9)
Trong , X l i lng ngu nhi n, l mt s, a l k vng, S l lch chun. Ta c:
( )
( ) 1
1
. 1
2
tt
th tt
th
m
P m
S
o
o o
o


s = +
`

)
(10)
Trong ,
th
S
o
l lch chun ca ng sut thc. Cc tham s cha trong
tt
o .
Trong bi bo ny tc gi xt cho bi ton tm. Nu gi
max
M l khong an ton ca bi ton tm
un cn kim tra, ta c
( )
max i
M e = + (11)
Ta coi gn ng k vng ca + l gi tr ca + khi cc n k vng ca chng tc l:
( )
i
e = + v
max
M =
Th xc sut an ton ca kt cu khi:
max
M a = l gi tr k vng
M th
const o o = =
Do kt qu thc nghim quan st o c c nn:
2
i
M th e
o o o = =

v
i
e
o l lch chun ca cc tham s
i
e .
Th nhy ca ti n cy cc tham s thit k l khng tng quan, nu tng quan ta bin i
thng qua ma trn bi n i Palle c xc nh theo cng thc sau:
( )
2
2
1
2
1 1
. .
2
2
m a
i i i
P
e
e e e
t

c cu c+
= =
c c c
(12)
Trong trng hp l mt hm xc nh ta xc nh nhy qua o hm ring cc tham s.
Trong trng hp tn ti di dng s gii tch ca cc bin thit k th ta thay qu trnh tnh o
hm ring
i
P
e
c
c
, hay bng gi tr gn ng ca o hm ring nh sau:
( ) ( )
( )
i i i
i i i
P P
P P e e e
e e e
+A

c A
~ =
c A A
(13)
Trong ,

i
e A - s gia ca tham s thit k ph thuc vo quan st o c;

( ) ( ) i i i
P P
e e e +A
- s gi a k vng ni lc.
Hay thng qua ch s tin cy |
( ) ( )
( )
i i i
i i i
e e e
| |
| |
e e e
A +

c A
~ =
c A A
(14)
Trong :

i
e A - s gia ca tham s thit k ph thuc vo quan st o c;

( ) ( ) i i i
e e e
| |
+A
- s gia k vng ca ch s tin cy.
4. ng dng vo chn phng n thit k hp l
Nu ta gi cc tham s thit k l { } =

0 i
x x l phng n thit k ban u. Ngi ta tnh ton,
thit k theo cc tiu chun v xem cc phng n chn c tho mn hay khng. Thng thng nu
tho mn th phng n c chp nhn m khng quan tm n phng n c ti u v t
tin cy l bao nhiu. Vi nhng phng n thit k nh th ny nhng k s thit k c kinh nghim
s la chn c nhng phng n hp l v h thng tha k cc cng trnh tng t khi thit k
cc cng trnh mi.
Trong trng hp gp cng trnh mi hay vt liu mi m khng c cng trnh tng t th ngi
thit k phi chn mt trng hp cho { } =

0 i
x x v phi ci tin phng n sao cho hp l nht.
Nhng nu tin cy khng t th phi tng tin cy v nh vy ta phi thay i tham s thit k.
Mun tng tng bc ta s tng tham s c nhy dng v gim cc tham s c nhy
m l cc iu chnh, sau ta tin hnh tnh li cho n khi hp l.

4.1. V d
Gi s cc phng n ban u c la chn vi cc tham s thit k l { } o =
0
, , , x ql h .
o = = = =
2 2 2
0
1
; 0, 0469 ; 0,0469 ; 0
6
e x y xy
M h M qa M qa M
Lng d tr an ton (Safety Margin) ca tm (hm mc ti u ca bi ton tm un):
( ) o =
2
2 4 2 4
0
1
0, 0469
36
M h qa

O
x
y
q
a
a


La chn tr s cc tham s u vo nh sau:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 5 2
0
200 / , a 6 , 0,12 , 3,5.10 / , q kN m m h m kN m o = = = =
Thng k sai lch ca cc tham s thit k tng ng l 5% ta c lch chun tng ng
ca cc tham s thit k q, l, h,
0
o l:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0
2 5 2
10 / , 0,3 , 0, 006 , 0,175.10 / .
q a h
kN m m m kN m
o
o o o o = = = = Ta c lch chun ca cc
tham s thit k.
Theo tham s ng sut bn ca vt liu:
( )
0
0
0
. 70560, 000 .
x
M
kNm
o
o
o
c
=
c
(a)
Theo tham s ti phn b u q:
( )
0
. 11402,778 .
q
x
M
kNm
q
o
c
=
c
(b)
Theo tham s nh p tm a:
( )
0
. 22805, 556 .
a
x
M
kNm
a
o
c
=
c

(c)
Theo tham s chi u cao tit din tm h:
( )
0
. 141120, 000 .
h
x
M
kNm
h
o
c
=
c

(d)
lch chun
M
o ta tnh c:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 2 2
70560,000 11402,778 22805, 556 141120,000 159823,918 .
M
kNm o = + + + =
K vng ca M (k vng khong an ton ca tm):
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0
2 2
4 2 4
0
1
0,0469 187690,140
36
M h q a
h q a
o
o o o o o = = (kN.m)
tin cy ca tm:
187690,140
1,17435
159823,918
M
M

|
o
= = =
Xc nh nhy ca tin cy theo cc tham s thit k:
nhy ca tin cy theo tham s ng sut bn ca vt liu
0
o

( )
( )
( )
0 0 5
5
0 0
1, 35396 1,17435
1,1.10
0,175.10
o o
| |
|
o o
+A

A

c
~ = =
c A

Hnh 1. Minh ho cho bi ton tm
Trong :

( )
0 0
0 0
216395, 532
1, 35396
159823,918
M
M
o o
o o

|
o
+A
+A
= = =
Ta c gi tr k vng:

( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0 0
0 0
2
2
4 2 4
0
1
0,0469 216395, 532 .
36
M
h q a
h q a kNm
o o
o o
o o o o o o
+A
= + A =
nhy ca tin cy theo tham s ti phn b u q:

( )
( ) ( ) 1,11512 1,17435
0, 05923
10
q q
q q
| |
| +A
A

c
~ = =
c A

Trong :

( )
178222, 976
1,11512
159823,918
q q
z
q q
z

|
o
+A
+A
= = =
Ta c gi tr k vng:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0
2 2
4 2 4
0
1
0, 0469 178222,976 .
36
q q
M h q q a
h q a kNm
o
o o o o o o
+A
= + A =
nhy ca tin cy theo tham s nhp tm a:

( )
( ) ( ) 1, 04981 1,17435
0, 41513
0, 3
a a
a a
| |
| +A
A

c
~ = =
c A

Trong :

( )
167785, 439
1,04981
159823, 918
a a
z
a a
z

|
o
+A
+A
= = =
Ta c gi tr k vng:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0
2 4 2
4 2
0
1
0, 0469 167785, 439 .
36
M
a a
h q a a
h q a kNm
o
o o o o o o
+A
= + A =
nhy ca tin cy theo tham s chiu cao tit di n tm h:

( )
( ) ( ) 1, 55197 1,17435
62, 93706
0, 006
h h
h h
| |
| +A
A

c
~ = =
c A

Trong :

( )
248043,230
1, 55197
159823, 918
h h
z
h h
z

|
o
+A
+A
= = =
Ta c gi tr k vng:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
o
o o o o o o
+A
= + A =
0
2 4 2
2 4
0
1
0,0469 248043,230 .
36
M
h h
h h q a
h q a kNm

T kt qu tnh ton nhy ca ti n cy theo cc tham s thit k ca bi ton tm un chu
tc ng ca ti trng phn b u ta nhn thy rng: Tc bin thi n nhy theo cc tham s
thit k l khc nhau, cc tham s c nhy dng l
0
,h o v cc tham s c nhy m l , . qa Do
, tu thuc vo iu kin kinh t, k thut v cc tiu chun cho php ngi thit k c th iu
chnh theo nhiu phng n khc nhau s cho ta mt thit k hp l. Ta tin hnh iu chnh theo
quan im sau:
- Vi nhng tham s c nhy dng lo
0
,h ta tin hnh tng cc tham s ;
- Vi nhng tham s c nhy m l , qa ta tin hnh gim cc tham s .
Ta tin hnh i u chnh theo cc trng hp sau:
Trng hp 1: nng cao tin cy ta i u chnh tng tham s h t chi u cao ban u ln 10%
v cc tham s khng iu chnh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 2: nng cao tin cy ta iu chnh tng tham s
0
o t bn vt liu ban u
10% v cc tham s khng iu chnh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 3: nng cao tin cy ta iu chnh gim tham s q t ti trng ban u 10% v
cc tham s khng iu ch nh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 4: nng cao tin cy ta i u chnh gim tham s a b rng tm ban u 10% v
cc tham s khng iu ch nh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 5: nng cao tin cy ta iu ch nh tng ng thi cc tham s h,
0
o ln 10% v
cc tham s khng iu ch nh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 6: nng cao tin cy ta iu chnh gim ng thi cc tham s q v a xung 10%
v cc tham s khng iu chnh ta xem nh l xc nh.
Trng hp 7: nng cao tin cy ta iu ch nh tng ng thi cc tham s h,
0
o ln 10% v
gim ng thi cc tham s q v a xung 10%.
Ta c cc gi tr trong bng 1.

Bng 1. Bng tng hp ch s tin cy khi iu chnh cc tham s thit k
Trng hp iu
chnh
| trc khi iu chnh | sau khi iu chnh
M
max
(kN.m)
Trng hp 1 1,17435 2,74232 50.560,66
Trng hp 2 1,17435 1,64929 739.748,22
Trng hp 3 1,17435 1,37914 613.237,50
Trng hp 4 1,17435 1,51450 630.786,37
Trng hp 5 1,17435 2,80242 1.735.985,66
Trng hp 6 1,17435 1,60375 645.000,96
Trng hp 7 1,17435 3,74759 1.189.414,40
4.2. Nhn xt sau khi iu chnh
- Nu tip tc iu chnh ta s c mt tin cy nh yu cu thit k;
- Tham s c nhy ca tin cy cao th khi iu ch nh nhanh t c tin cy cn thit;
- Tham s c nhy ca tin cy thp th khi iu ch nh chm t c tin cy cn thit;
- t c tin cy cn thit v m bo cc iu kin kinh t k thut ta s u tin iu
chnh cc tham s c nhy cao, sau mi n tham s c nhy thp hn hoc c th iu
chnh ng thi tt c cc tham s v lc ny ta s c mt thit k hp l cho cng trnh mi;
- Phng n iu chnh trn c| = 3, 74759 l chp nhn c. Vi phng n ny ta c gi tr
m men ln nht (hm trng thi) ( ) =
max
1.189.141, 40 . M kNmv c k vng l ( ) = 852.839, 250 . .
M
kNm
5. Kt lun
Bi bo nu ln c nhng vn sau:
Gii thi u phng php xc nh nhy ca cc tham s thit k trong phim hm p ng
l tin cy ca cng trnh, v a ra phng n thi t k hp l khi thi t k cng trnh bao gm:
- Pht biu bi ton nhy vi hm p ng l ti n cy;
- nhy ca mt hm tt nh;
- nhy ca mt i lng ngu nhi n;
- p dng vo chn phng n thi t k hp l.
T kt qu ny ngi thit k c thm mt phng php a ra c phng n thi t k hp
l khi thit k cng trnh.
Tc gi chn thnh cm n GS.TS. Nguyn Vn Ph Trng i hc Xy dng gp mt s
kin qu bu cho bi vit ny.
TI LIU THAM KHO
1. NGUYN VN PH. L thuyt tin cy v tui th cng trnh. Bi ging cao hc, i hc Xy
dng, H Ni, 2003.
2. NGUYN VN PH. Bi ton xc nh nhy ca cc tham s thit k vi phim hm p ng
l tin cy. Tp ch C hc T.XVI N
0
-04, 1994.
3. TRN VN LIN. Bi ton ngc ca c hc v ng dng. Lun n tin s k thut, i hc xy
dng, H Ni, 2003.
4. Achitya Haldar, Sankaran Mahadevan. Probability Reliability And Statistical Method in
Engineering Design. John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
5. NGUYN TRNG H. Tnh ton nhy ca cc tham s cng trnh vi hm p ng l tin cy
v ng dng. Lun vn thc s - i hc xy dng, H Ni, 2008.
6. Edward J . Hang, Kyung K. Choi, Vadim Komkov. Design sensitivity analysis of structural systems,
Academic press. Inc New york London Tokyo, 1986.
7. E. Atrek, R.H. Gallagher, K.M Raysdell, O.C Zienkiewiez. New Directions in Optimum Structural
Design. John Wiley & Sons, New york Toronto Singapor, 1984.