1

Scope of this tutorial:

Calculation of sample and population odds
Calculation of sample and population odds ratio
Test of association using odds ratio
Comparison with chi sq test of association
Tutorial 13
12.1
2
Practice exercises: Question 1
In a random sample of students (of size 50)
who passed STAT170, 20 are males and 30
are females.
(a) Suggest a target population.
3
Question 1(continued)
(b) Research question: Are the proportions of
males and females who passed STAT170 the
same?
Suppose we employ the z-test for proportion
(i) Write down the null hypothesis.
Ho:
M
=0.5 (or
F
=0.5 )
(ii) Write down the sample proportions for males
and females.
p
M
= __2/5=0.4__, p
F
= __3/5=0.6__
4
Question 1(continued)
(c) Research question: Are the proportions of
males and females who passed STAT170 the
same? [Same as in (b)]
Suppose we employ the chi sq test of proportions
(i) Write down the null hypothesis.
Ho:
M
=
F
= 0.5
(ii) Write down the observed and expected counts
O
M
= __20___, O
F
= __30__
E
M
= _ 50*0.5=25__, E
F
= _ 50*0.5=25 _
5
Question 1(continued)
(d) (i) Of those who passed STAT170, what is the
sample odds of males (against females)?
sample odds = 2/3
(ii) Of those who passed STAT170, what is the
estimated population odds of males (against
females)?
estimated population odds = sample odds = 2/3
(iii) Can you find the exact population odds of males
(against females)? Explain why or why not.
No, since there is no info on the population
6
Question 2
(a) Prob Odds
Calculate the odds of the following events if they
occur with the given probabilities. Do NOT ask
for formulas!
(i) 1/6, (ii) 1/2, (iii) 2/5, (iv) 4/5
1/5, 1 (or 1/1), 2/3, 4 (or 4/1)
(b) Odds Prob
Calculate the probability of the occurrence of
following events if the odds are:
(i) 1/3 (ie 1 to 3), (ii) 4/9
1/4, 4/13
7
Question 3
In Australia, the prevalence of asthma is 20% among 5-9
year old males, while it is 12% for 5-9 year old females.
(a) What are the odds of a 5-9 year old male suffering
from asthma, and of a 5-9 year old female suffering from
asthma?
(b) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds
of 5-9 year old males suffering from asthma compared to
the odds for 5-9 year old females suffering from asthma.
(c) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the odds
of 5-9 year old females suffering from asthma compared
to the odds for 5-9 year old males suffering from asthma.
(d) Comment on the odds ratio in (b).
8
Question 3 (answers)
(a) Ans: 0.25, 0.13636
(b) =1.8333 (This should be , not w.)
asthma No asthma
Male % %
Female % %
9
(c)
(d)
10
Question 4
In Australia, 17.8% of 6 17.8% of 6- -14 year old males 14 year old males have ADHD
(Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder) and 7.9% 7.9%
of 6 of 6- -14 year old females 14 year old females have ADHD.
(a) What are the odds of a 6-14 year old male having
ADHD, and of a 6-14 year old female having ADHD?
(b) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the
odds of 6-14 year old males having ADHD compared
to the odds for 6-14 year old females having ADHD.
11
Question 4 (answers)
(a) Ans: 0.217, 0.086
(b) =2.52 (This should be , not w.)
ADHD No ADHD
Male % %
Female % %
12
Question 4 (continued)
(c) Compute the population odds ratio comparing the
odds of 6-14 year old females having ADHD
compared to the odds for 6-14 year old males having
ADHD.
(d) Comment on your odds ratio in (b)
(e) Comment on the association between ADHD and
gender.
13
(c)
(d)
(e)
14
Question 5
A questionnaire was handed out to students. One
question was Do you believe in love at first sight?
There were 200 males of whom 102 responded yes.
Of the 281 females, 121 responded yes.
(a) Put these data into a table.
(b) Compute the sample odds ratio for a male student
believing in love at first sight compared to a female
student believing in love at first sight.
(c) Interpret the odds ratio in (b)
15
Question 5 (answers)
(b) ns: w = 1.38 (This time it should be w, not .)
(c) The odds for a male student believing in love at
first sight is 1.38 times the odds for a female
student believing in love at first sight.
Love (yes) Love (No)
Male 102 98
Female 121 160
38 . 1
160 / 121
98 / 102
= = w
16
Question 5 (continued)
(d) Research question: Is there an association between
Gender and Love at First Sight?
Perform a chi square test of association to answer the
above research question.
Answer:
2
=2.96 , df =1
0.05<p-val<0.1, NOT reject Ho
There could be no association
17
Question 5 (answers)
18
(e) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to
obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio for a male student
believing in love at first sight compared to a female
student believing in love at first sight. Using your
conclusion in (d), do you think the CI will or will not
include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from EcStat.)
Chi sq test in (d) shows that there could be no association
between gender and love at first sight. Odds ratio
must have the same conclusion of probably NO
association. Hence CI for should include 1.
Question 5 (continued)
19
Question 6
A study was done on births in New South Wales in
2002. Country of birth of the mothers, and the
mothers ages were recorded as binary categorical
variables. The results are tabulated below:
(a) What is the odds ratio of an Australian born mother
being less than 30 years of age compared to an Asian
born mother being less than 30?
Mothers Age
Mothers Birth
Country
<30 30 or over
Australia 631 605
Asia 147 167
20
Question 6 (continued)
(a)
(b) Interpret the odds ratio in (a).
21
Question 6 (continued)
(c) Research question: Is there an association between
mothers birth country and mothers age?
Perform an chi square test of association to answer the
above research question.
Answer:
1
2
= 1.80
22
Question 6 (answers)
23
(d) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to
obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio of an Australian
born mother being less than 30 years of age compared
to an Asian born mother being less than 30. Using
your conclusion in (c), do you think the CI will or will
not include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from
EcStat.)
Question 6 (continued)
24
Question 7
Continued from previous question. The babys weight
is also recorded as a binary variable. The mothers
age and the babys weight are summarized in the
table below:
(a) What is the odds ratio of a mother who is under 30
years of age having a low birth weight baby (< 2.5kg)
compared to an older mother?
Babys Wt
Mothers Age < 2.5 kg 2.5 kg or over
<30 52 901
30 or over 50 997
25
Question 7 (continued)
(a)
(b) Interpret the odds ratio in (a).
26
Question 7 (continued)
(c) Research question: Is there an association between
mothers age and babys weight?
Perform an chi square test of association to answer the
above research question.
Answer:
1
2
= 0.478
27
Question 7 (answers)
28
(d) Suppose we use a statistical package, eg EcStat, to
obtain a 95% CI for the odds ratio of a mother who is
under 30 years of age having a low birth weight baby
(< 2.5kg) compared to an older mother. Using your
conclusion in (c), do you think the CI will or will not
include 1? Explain. (Do NOT find CI from EcStat.)
Question 7 (continued)
29
Question 8
The following shows the distribution of gender in
university education.
110 293 Non-university
11 19 University
Female Male Education
The 95% CI for population odds ratio () of male
entering university against female is given to be (0.788,
3.724). Determine if there is an association between
gender and entering university.
Ans: Since CI for (0.788, 3.724) includes 1, there could
be no association between gender and entering university.
30
Question 9
In the NSW Local Court in 2007, 14.5% of charges of
assault occasioning actual bodily harm resulted in
prison sentences, while 7.2% of charges of common
assault resulted in prison sentences.
(a) Complete the following table.
12.9
7.2% Common
assaults (no
body injury)
14.5% Assault with
body injury
Odds of going to
prison
Set Free Sent to
Prison
31
Question 9
(b) Find the odds ratio of odds of going to prison for
assault with body injury compared to odds of going to
prison for common assault. (Ans:2.18)
(c) Is this the population odds ratio () or a sample odds
ratio (w)?
32
Question 10
The following 4 tables were shown in Lect 11, where for chi sq
test involving 2 variables, we only use counts, not %. From
this sample sample sample sample of exact counts, we form 3 other tables
involving %.
Smoker Non-
smoker
Male 14 36
Female 16 84
Smoker Non-
smoker
Male 9.33% 24%
Female 10.67% 56%
Smoker Non-
smoker
Male 46.67% 30%
Female 53.33% 70%
Smoker Non-
smoker
Male 28% 72%
Female 16% 84%
33
Question 10 (continued)
(a) Check that all % in the 3 tables are correct.
(b) Find the (sample) odds ratio for a male being a
smoker compared to a female being a smoker, in ALL
the four (4) tables.
(c) Do you find the same answer for all 4 cases?
Yes. All give the same answer: w=2.04
(d) Is this expected? If yes, WHY?
Yes. Whether actual counts or %, the ratios must be
the same.
04 . 2
84 / 16
72 / 28
; 04 . 2
70 / 33 . 53
30 / 67 . 46
04 . 2
84 / 15
36 / 14
; 04 . 2
56 / 67 . 10
24 / 33 . 9
= = = =
= = = =
w w
w w
34
Question 11
While in the previous
question, all 4 tables can
be considered
equivalent, the
following 3 tables are
NOT.
Find the OR of a male
being a smoker to that
of a female being a
smoker? (Which table
should you use? This
seems obvious, but
MANY students made
mistakes in past exams.)
Sex smoker non-smoker total
male 5 11 16
female 6 8 14
total 11 19 30
Sex smoker non-smoker total
male 5.9 10.1 16.0
female 5.1 8.9 14.0
total 11.0 19.0 30.0
Sex smoker non-smoker total
male 0.128 0.074 0.202
female 0.146 0.085 0.231
total 0.274 0.159 0.433
Test: df chi-sq p-val
Indep 1 0.43 0.51
Smoke
Observed counts
Smoke
Expected counts
Smoke
Chi-squared decomposition
Smoke