Wind Energy: Global Status and Australian Prospects

Robert Marlin
Pacific Power
GPO Box 5257, NSW 1042
AUSTRALIA
Robert.Marlin@pacificpower.com.au
Wind Energy is poised to make a dramatic impact in the world renewable energy market. Recent
growth rates have been unprecedented compared with conventional fossil fuel businesses. The
prospects for future Wind business in the world market are exciting and which Australia will benefit
from these outcomes.
Wind Energy has grown steadily over the last two decades with about 14,000 MW of capacity being
installed in the world at the start of this year. World growth rates have been extraordinary with annual
rates in excess of 30 percent in recent years. Some 3,900 MW of wind power were installed in 1999
alone. Investment in the Wind Energy industry has been estimated at an annual US$3.5 billion.
The potential in Australia has never looked so good with Government legislation assisting market
growth. However, the domestic potential will be unlikely to see as strong a growth compared to the
rest of the world due to the very favourable market conditions and demand for renewable energy in the
rest of the world.
At the start of the new century Germany leads the world in installed capacity with about 4,500 MW
followed by the United States with 2,500 MW and Denmark with 1,700 MW. Spain is achieving rapid
growth with 1,200 MW with strong national incentives driving the industry.
One of the strengths of the industry continues to be the rapid improvement in wind generation
technology. Wind turbine manufacturers continue to deliver high quality products with increasing
capacities and at decreasing costs. These innovations continue to fuel the uptake of Wind Power in the
market. One enterprising manufacturer built on these successes by achieving the single biggest sale of
wind turbines in the world with a sale of 1400 MW of turbines to be installed by 2002. However, the
rapid development of technology does come at a cost and hard business decisions have to be made by
all participants regarding the rate of technology implementation.
The outlook for the Wind Industry in Australia is strong. Favourable market drivers are in place to
increase Australias installed capacity from a modest 11 MW at the start of this year to between 500
and 1000 MW by 2010. The Federal Governments 2% Renewable Initiative has emerged to be the
main driver for market growth. Other incentives such as Green Power, electricity licence conditions
and customer contestability will play important supporting roles.
However, the Australian Wind Industry must overcome significant market limitations if it is to achieve
the market growth predicted for the rest of the world. Market impediments such as the fossil fuel to
renewable price relativity, high cost finance, complex environmental planning and the dissemination
of information to the public must be managed if the Wind Energy business is to transform the energy
market.