Conditional events &

Independent events
P( A B)
P( A | B)
P( B)

Conditional events
We often

wish to consider the probability of an

event B amongst occurrences of another event A.
Consider a class of 30 students, consisting of 20
girls and 10 boys. There are 15 girls and 5 boys
who wear spectacles.
A student is chosen at random from the class.
Let A be the event that the student wears spectacles
and B be the event that the student is a girl.
An example of a conditional event:
B|A the student chosen is a girl, knowing that the
student chosen wears spectacles.

Conditional probability
In

a sense, B|A restricts the sample space to the A.

Thus, P ( B | A) n( B A)
In the above example,
n( A)

n( B A)
n( S )

n( A)
n( S )
P( B A)

P( A)

n(A) = 20, and

n(BA) = 15.
Thus, P(B|A) = 15/20 =
P(BA) = 15/30 =
P(A) = 20/30 = 2/3

P(B|A)

1
2

2
3

Conditional probability
We have
So
Note
So
But
Thus

P( B A)
P ( B | A)
P ( A)
P ( B | A) P ( A) P ( B A)

that

P( A B)
P( A | B)
P( B)
P( A | B) P( B) P( A B)

P(AB) = P(BA)
P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)

Conditional probability
Example: A number

is selected randomly from the set

{1, 2, 3, , 30}. If this number chosen is odd, what is
the probability that it is a perfect square?
Given n(S) = 30.
Let A be the event getting an odd number. Then n(A)
= 15
So, P(A) = 15/30.
Let B be the event getting a perfect square.
B = {1, 4, 9, 16, 25}. So, n(B) = 5
P(B) = 5/30
But n(BA) = 3
P(BA) = 3/30

Conditional probability

P(number is a perfect square | number is odd}

= P(B|A)

= P(number is a perfect square number is odd) / P(number is odd)

= P(B A) / P(A)
= 3/30 / 15/30
= 3/15 = 1/5

P(number is odd | number is a perfect square}

= P(A|B)

So,

= P(number is odd number is perfect square ) / P(number is a perfect square)

S 2 6 8 10 12
= P(A B) / P(B)
A 17
1
7
= 3/30 / 5/30
= 3 /5
19
3

and

P(B|A)P(A) = 1/5 1/2 = 1/10

P(A|B)P(B) = 3/5 5/30 = 1/10

14 18

11
9
513 21
25
1523
2729

20 22 24 26

28

B
4
16

30

Conditional probability
complementary events
Note

S
B
A

BA

BA

that B = (BA)(BA).
(BA) and (BA) are exclusive events, so
P(B) = P(BA) + P(BA).
From the rule of conditional probability,
P(BA) = P(B|A)P(A)
and
P(BA) = P(B|A)P(A).
Thus,
P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A)P(A).

Independent events

When an event A is independent of B, the probability of A

happening does not depend on whether B happens or not.
That is, P(A|B) = P(A).

From the relationship P(AB)=P(A|B)P(B), when we put

P(A|B) = P(A)

We have,

This is the multiplication rule.

P(AB) = P(A)P(B).

Independent events
Example

= 1/36
Just look at
the sample
space!

No on second die

1: Tossing two fair dice

P(getting 6 on both dice)
= P(getting 6 on the first die and 6 on the second die)
= P(getting 6 on the first die) P(getting 6 on the second die)
= 1/6 1/6
6
5
4
3
2
1
1 2 3 4 5 6
No on first die

Independent events
Example

2: A die is tossed 6 times. What is

the probability of getting a 6 at least once?

P(getting

at least a 6 in 6 tosses)
= 1 P(not getting a 6 in 6 tosses)
= 1 5/6 5/6 5/6
= 1 (5/6)6
= 0.6651

Three or more events

For

two events, A and B, in the sample space S,

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB).

This

can be extended to three events, A, B and

C, in the sample space S:
S A
C
P(ABC)
B
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(AB) P(BC) P(CA) + P(ABC)

Three or more events

Example: Three candidates, A, B and C, contest in three different
constituencies during an election. The probabilities of them
winning are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.8 respectively.
Let A represent the event A wins the election, B represent the
event B wins the election and C represent C wins the election.
That is, P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.8
A, B, C are
independent
(a) P(only one of them wins the elections)

= P(ABC)P(ABC)P(ABC)
= P(ABC) + P(ABC) + P(ABC)
= P(A)P(B)P(C) + P(A)P(B)P(C) + P(A)P(B)P(C)
= 0.5 0.7 0.2 + 0.5 0.3 0.2 + 0.5 0.7 0.8
= 0.07 + 0.03 + 0.28
= 0.38

Three or more events

Example: Three candidates, A, B and C, contest in three

different constituencies during an election. The probabilities of
them winning are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.8 respectively.
That is, P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.8

(b) P(all of them win the election)

= P(ABC)
= P(A)P(B)P(C)
(c) P(at least one of them win the election)
= 0.5 0.3 0.8
= 1- P(none of them win)
= 0.12
= 1 - P(ABC)
= 1 - P(A)P(B)P(C)
= 1 - 0.5 0.7 0.2
= 1 0.07 = 0.93

Tree diagrams
Tree

diagrams are useful in solving problems

in probability.
Independent events are placed in stages and
probabilities are labelled at each branch so
that calculations can be easily done.

Tree diagrams

Example: A shop sells pots supplied by

two factories, A and B, in the ratio 3 : 7.
Given that 20% and 10% of the pots
supplied by factories A and B respectively
have cracks, what is the probability that a
pot selected at random from the shop has
cracks?
Let C represents the event a pot has
cracks.
P(C) = P(CA) + P(CB)
= P(C|A)P(A) + P(C|B)P(B)
= 0.2 0.3 + 0.1 0.7
= 0.06 + 0.07 = 0.13

Cracks
P(C|A) = 0.2

P(C|A) = 0.8
No cracks
P(A) = 0.3

P(B) = 0.7
B

Cracks
P(C|B) = 0.1
P(C|B) = 0.9
No cracks