OPINIONCOLUMNS

Published:January1,201602:19IST|Updated:January1,201602:19IST
January1,2016
WORLDVIEW

Mr.ModisstraightroadtoLahore

V.Sudarshan
EverythingseemedtofinallyfallintoplaceinBangkok,whereoverfourhourstheNationalSecurityAdvisersmetalongwiththeForeign
Secretariesandacoreteamofstrategists,ameetingthatcamethroughbackchannelefforts
Imaginethescene:abuoyantPrimeMinisterNarendraModigettingintohiscarafterhisspeechintheAfghanParliament,whichIndiabuilt,
theultimatesymbolofthetriumphofdemocracyovercenturiesofinternecinewarfare.Inhislessthan35minutespeechheurgedthe
Talibantojointhepeaceprocess,andPakistanandIrantouniteintrustandcooperation,sayingIndiawastheretocontributenotcompete
andwasapplaudednolessthan62times,moreapplausethanspeech.ItleftAfghanelderstearyeyed.ThatiswhenMr.Modiasksforhis
mobilephoneandmakesthecalltoNawazSharif.ThecallisabriefoneandMr.Modiiseasilypersuadedtomakeanimpromptudecision
thatwillleadtoanastonishingsubcontinentalmomentofsorts.Bythetimecallisover,thecavalcadereachesitsnextpitstop.Thatiswhen
theentourageknowswhereitisgoingthatafternoonandwhyitisgoingthere,andascrambleensuestoseeifthereisanythingintheplane
thatcouldbegivenasgifttothePrimeMinisterssuddenhosts.Thesearchyieldsnothingworthwhile,leavingittothemandarinstofigure
outwhattosendthroughappropriatechannelslater.
ItisanemptyhandedvisityetbothPrimeMinistersarebearingheavyinvisiblegiftsinajourneywithoutmaps.Soonafterthejhappionthe
tarmac,andPrimeMinisterSharifleadsPrimeMinisterModiintoahelicopterfora15minuteridetohishomestead,themessageis
somewhatdeeperthanthemediumthatconveysit.ImaginethePakistaniPrimeMinistersettingasidemorethanfourhoursononeofthe
busiestdaysofhislife,adayinwhichhewastopresideoverthemarriageofhisgranddaughter,tochaperoneinsteadthePrimeMinisterof
Indiaforaquasisummitwithoutoutcome,wherenojointstatementwouldbeforthcomingasmarkersforthefuture.Heremarksasmuchto
hisguest:thathehasstakedhispoliticalfutureonthisnewengagementwithIndia.
EquallyondisplayisthePrimeMinistersabilitytograspthenettle.BytouchingthefeetofMr.Sharifsmotherheconveyssomethingto
Pakistannojointstatementevercan:hereisanationalistprimeministerofIndiainahumanisingscene.
Bangkok,behindthescenes
Whatexplainsthisnewbonhomie?Doesthishaveafuture?Isthisprocessdurable?Howdoweguardagainstsurprises?Answersliepartlyin
Mr.Modischaracter.Heisflintyinhispersistence.Asthisnewspaperhasreported,hehascoldcalledMr.Sharifrepeatedly,almost
badgeringhimwithhisModistyleoutreach.EverythingseemedtofinallyfallintoplaceinBangkok,whereoverfourhourstheNational
SecurityAdvisers(NSA)metalongwiththeForeignSecretariesandacoreteamofstrategists,ameetingthatcamethroughbackchannel
efforts.ItwasanIndiaPakistanmeetinglikenoneother.HerewasLt.Gen.(retd.)NaseerKhanJanjua,arepresentativeoftheDeepState,
whohadservedinSwat,Balochistan,QuettaandasheadoftheNationalDefenceUniversity,andaformerspymaster,knowninPakistanas
AjitDevil,inasituationwherenoargumentsaretraded.WithIndiascounterterrorismpointperson,formerdirector,IntelligenceBureau,
AsifIbrahim,onthetable,theIndiansideobjectivelylaidoutitsconcernsandexpectationsmoreinpracticalsecuritytermsandlessin
diplomaticterms.Mr.Janjuarespondedpositively,sayingthepastispastandIslamabadsintentionwastomoveforward.Thatmeeting
apparentlyestablishedthebasistoworktogether,atemplateofsorts,definingboththestepsandthegoals.Theunderpinnings:theNSAlevel
talkswhichMr.SharifhaslongbeenpushingandwhichwasnotfindingtakersinthepreviousgovernmentinDelhi,wouldbringthetalks
closertothecentresofpowerbothinIslamabadandDelhi,andprovideasurerwayoftestingintentions.
Mr.JanjuaandMr.DovalwereagreedinBangkokthatitwouldnotbedifficulttoassesstheintentionsoftheother.Giventhedevicesattheir
disposal,thedeployments,thecontinuousmonitoring,itwouldbeeasyenoughtodetermineifadequateeffortsarebeingmadetocurtailor
stopinfiltrationanddisruptcommunicationsamongtheterrorists,forexample,orevenmaintainpeaceandtranquillityalongthegun
embankmentsontheLoC.ThequestionofwhatPakistandoestodismantletheinfrastructureorputitoutofbusinesscomeslater,much
later.AftertheBangkoktalks,forinstance,therehavebeennoreportsaboutfiringalongtheLineofControl(LoC).Thusaboutaweekafter
theprinciplesoftheengagementwereinplace,Mr.ModiwastellingtheCombinedCommandersConferenceaboardINSVikramadityathat
IndiawasengagingPakistantotrytoturnthecourseofhistoryTherearemanychallengesandbarriersonthepath.Buttheeffortisworth
it,becausethepeacedividendsarehugeandthefutureofourchildrenisatstake.Wewilltesttheirintentionstodefinethepathahead.It
wasaspeechthesignificanceofwhichwastobeunderlinedatLahore,thepathtowhichwasdefinedattheAfghanParliamentaswell.
Thereisalargercontext:inthepast,backchannelshavebroughtabroadcontourunderstandingbetweenthetwocountriesona
comprehensiveoutcomethatbothsideswereprivatelymoreorlesscomfortablewith.Thelackofoutcomeisafactorofthewildcardwhich
makesitswayontothetableinunpredictableways.ThisengagementcomesastheObamaadministrationwanes,theWestsengagementwith
Iranchangesforthepositive,WestAsiaremainsinturmoil,Afghanistanreadiestoengagemorewithusbothonsecurityissuesaswellas
economicaspects,andtheChinesefootprintdeepensintheregion.IfIndiaweretoretainaleadershiproleintheregion,canitbedone
withoutaddressingPakistan?
sudarshan.v@thehindu.co.in
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