Southwestern University

Forecasting
Multiplicative decomposition
5 seasons Enter
Enter the
the actual
actual values
values in
in the
the cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time period
period numbers!
numbers!
Input Data

Period
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 4
Game 5
Game 6
Game 7
Game 8
Game 9
Game 10
Game 11
Game 12
Game 13
Game 14
Game 15
Game 16
Game 17
Game 18
Game 19
Game 20
Game 21
Game 22
Game 23
Game 24
Game 25
Game 26
Game 27
Game 28
Game 29
Game 30

Seasonal Index Computation

Actual value
Time
(Y)
period (X)
34200
1
39800
2
38200
3
26900
4
35100
5
36100
6
40200
7
39100
8
25300
9
36200
10
35900
11
46500
12
43100
13
27900
14
39200
15
41900
16
46100
17
43900
18
30100
19
40500
20
42500
21
48200
22
44200
23
33900
24
47800
25
46900
26
50100
27
45900
28
36300
29
49900
30

Centered
average

34840.000
34840.000
35300.000
35300.000
35160.000
35160.000
35340.000
35340.000
37400.000
37400.000
38520.000
38520.000
39640.000
39640.000
40240.000
40240.000
40620.000
40620.000
41100.000
41100.000
43320.000
43320.000
44580.000
44580.000
45400.000
45400.000

Seasonal Seasonal Unseasonal

ratio
index
ized value
1.025 33361.469
1.162 34259.782
1.096
1.075 35536.643
0.772
0.747 36002.367
0.994
1.015 34568.714
1.023
1.025 35214.884
1.143
1.162 34604.101
1.112
1.075 36373.893
0.716
0.747 33860.962
1.024
1.015 35652.064
0.960
1.025 35019.788
1.243
1.162 40027.132
1.119
1.075 40095.008
0.724
0.747 37340.745
0.989
1.015 38606.655
1.057
1.025 40872.677
1.146
1.162 39682.812
1.091
1.075 40839.231
0.741
0.747 40285.176
0.997
1.015 39886.978
1.034
1.025 41457.966
1.173
1.162 41490.489
1.020
1.075 41118.314
0.783
0.747 45371.012
1.072
1.015 47076.482
1.052
1.025 45750.085
1.104
1.162 43126.007
1.011
1.075 42699.788
0.747 48583.119
1.015 49144.696
Intercept
Slope

Seasonal Ratios
Season 1 Season 2
1.023
0.960
1.057
1.034
1.052

1.143
1.243
1.146
1.173
1.104

Forecast Error analysis

Season 3 Season 4 Season 5

1.096
0.772
0.994
1.112
0.716
1.024
1.119
0.724
0.989
1.091
0.741
0.997
1.020
0.783
1.072
1.011

32274.823
472.396

Unseasonal
ized
Seasonaliz
Forecast ed Forecast
32747.219 33570.311
33219.616 38591.627
33692.012 36217.120
34164.408 25526.727
34636.805 35169.137
35109.201 35991.661
35581.598 41335.570
36053.994 38756.126
36526.391 27291.537
36998.787 37567.421
37471.184 38413.011
37943.580 44079.513
38415.977 41295.131
38888.373 29056.346
39360.770 39965.705
39833.166 40834.362
40305.563 46823.456
40777.959 43834.136
41250.356 30821.156
41722.752 42363.988
42195.149 43255.712
42667.545 49567.400
43139.941 46373.142
43612.338 32585.966
44084.734 44762.272
44557.131 45677.062
45029.527 52311.343
45501.924 48912.147
45974.320 34350.776
46446.717 47160.555
Average

Average

1.025

1.162

1.075

Forecasts for future periods

Unseasonali Seasonal Seasonalize
Period zed forecast
index
d forecast
31.000 46919.113
1.025 48098.412
32.000 47391.510
1.162 55055.286
33.000 47863.906
1.075 51451.152
34.000 48336.303
0.747 36115.585
35.000 48808.699
1.015 49558.839
36.000 49281.096
1.025 50519.762
37.000 49753.492
1.162 57799.230
38.000 50225.889
1.075 53990.158
39.000 50698.285
0.747 37880.395
40.000 51170.682
1.015 51957.123

0.747

1.015

Error
629.689
1208.373
1982.880
1373.273
-69.137
108.339
-1135.570
343.874
-1991.537
-1367.421
-2513.011
2420.487
1804.869
-1156.346
-765.705
1065.638
-723.456
65.864
-721.156
-1863.988
-755.712
-1367.400
-2173.142
1314.034
3037.728
1222.938
-2211.343
-3012.147
1949.224
2739.445

Absolute
Absolute
error
Squared error % error
629.689
396508.011
1.84%
1208.373 1460166.413
3.04%
1982.880 3931812.542
5.19%
1373.273 1885878.488
5.11%
69.137
4779.968
0.20%
108.339
11737.272
0.30%
1135.570 1289518.865
2.82%
343.874
118249.670
0.88%
1991.537 3966218.761
7.87%
1367.421 1869840.031
3.78%
2513.011 6315226.481
7.00%
2420.487 5858756.635
5.21%
1804.869 3257552.591
4.19%
1156.346 1337137.178
4.14%
765.705
586303.487
1.95%
1065.638 1135585.273
2.54%
723.456
523389.221
1.57%
65.864
4338.036
0.15%
721.156
520066.226
2.40%
1863.988 3474451.997
4.60%
755.712
571100.165
1.78%
1367.400 1869782.047
2.84%
2173.142 4722544.382
4.92%
1314.034 1726685.701
3.88%
3037.728 9227792.470
6.36%
1222.938 1495577.783
2.61%
2211.343 4890038.034
4.41%
3012.147 9073029.285
6.56%
1949.224 3799475.909
5.37%
2739.445 7504556.433
5.49%
1436.458 2760936.645
3.63%
MAD
MSE
MAPE

Actual vs. Forecast

60000

50000

Value

40000

Actual value (Y)

Seasonalized Forecast

30000

20000

10000

0
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Period