S&P 500: Weekly (Log Scale)

REPRINTED from 3/13/2011

( B )? ( B )?
“y” peaks @ 61.8% of “w” ?? “y”? “z”?

b
“w”
“w” concludes @ 1150 e d
“x”
c

“x” corrects 23.6% of “w”

a e
d
c “x”
a

b
Following up from our count on 2/13/2011, this would be an updated longer term look at the price
action. The “w” up is better counted as some sort of contracting triangle pattern with an abnormally
strong upward slope and of an unusual character. The subsequent “x” wave corrected exactly
23.6% of “w.” The “y” wave which has followed has peaked around 61.8% of “w.” Based on the
slower moving, and corrective nature, of the move from the recent high, another “x” wave lower is
the highest probability. I’m expecting at least a 38.2% of the “y” wave--1227 or lower with the “x”
wave lasting a few months.

(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily non-Log Scale

REPRINTED from 5/30/2011

“y” b
d?
g
1344
-a-
-b-
e?
e “x”
-a- c?
-b-
f
c
a

a
d

b
Last Sunday we called the price action a “muddled mess.” Last week did nothing
to clear the picture. So, let’s just come to terms with the fact we’ve seen three
corrective moves in a row beginning at the 1344 high. This concept leads us to a
triangle development of some kind, which would be a very bullish “x” wave
scenario. It’s potentially bullish because the b-wave exhibited a lot of power
relative to the a-wave. So, if all we get is this stunted c-wave (which was exactly
1040 61.8% of a-wave), then it sets up for a really powerful thrust higher once this
“x” triangle is complete. Bears are hoping for an “irregular” or expanding triangle
which would allow for a more powerful c-wave lower to continue.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ Daily non-Log Scale

Going back to early March, we asserted that “y:” wave had concluded in Mid-Feb b
and that we were progressing onto an “x” wave formation of ‘some kind.’ At this -b-
“y”
point, it seems clear that the “x” wave is a triangle given the back to back to back 1344 -d-
corrective moves we’ve witnessed. The ‘exact’ nature of the triangle is still in some
doubt but the current c-wave still seems to be unfolding and it resembles an
“expanding triangle.” If this c-wave is a fractal of the larger pattern, we could be in -a-
for some really “wild times” in the S&P 500. (Think 1226 area.)
-c-

-e-
a c

From the previous weekend we said: “Bears are hoping

for an “irregular” or expanding triangle which would
allow for a more powerful c-wave lower to continue.” To
clarify, in an “Expanding Triangle,” the c-wave is larger
1040
than the a-wave, and the e-wave is a “monster,” the
“x”
largest wave of the pattern. It will break the a-c trendline,
and feel quite ‘dramatic.’

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ 120 Min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

d?

-a-
-b-

c?

-b-
-a-

The movement down from the 1370 has been so “choppy” and whipsaw-ish, I’m
hesitant to even give support and resistance levels to consider. The price action does
resemble a bullish “flag pattern,” so bears should be cautious of a break of the
downtrend line, or the 1334 level. A move above the downtrend line will likely cause
even more buying pressure.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 S&P 500 ~ 60 Min. with Weekly Support and Resistance

-b-

-d-

-a-

-c-

Last week’s ultimate resistance at 1345 ended up holding as the market -e-
continued it’s “whip-saw” ways. There is only one level of support for bulls and
that is 1295--it looks like an important support point. 1318 is the first level of c?
resistance in the week ahead. Given the “expanding triangle” nature of the
current c-wave, 1345 will likely hold has larger resistance for the next few
weeks.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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