CHNG 1

TNG QUAN V PHNG PHP NH LNG

Mc tiu Gip sinh vin bit c mi quan h gia qu trnh ra quyt nh v phn tch nh lng. Trang b cho sinh vin nhng vn chung v phng php nh lng.

Gii thiu
2

Cch tip cn nh lng ra quyt nh c nhiu tn gi khc nh sau: Khoa hc qun tr, Vn tr hc v Khoa hc quyt nh. Cuc cch mng qun tr c tnh khoa hc ca u nm 1900, c khi xng bi Frederic W. Taylor, nhng nhng nghin cu khoa hc qun tr hin i bt u trong thi k chin tranh th gii th 2. Nhng thnh tu nh hng n phng php nh lng: Phng php n hnh gii cc bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh ca George Dantzig, nm 1947; S bng n ca my tnh.

1.1. Gii quyt vn v qu trnh quyt nh

3

Gii quyt vn l qu trnh nhn dng s khc nhau gia trng thi thc t v mong mun ca cc cng vic v thc hin gii quyt s khc nhau . Gii quyt vn gm 7 bc sau:
Xc nh vn ; Xc nh nhng phng n khc nhau la chn; Xc nh tiu chun nh gi phng n; nh gi cc phng n; Chn mt phng n; Thc hin phng n chn; nh gi kt qu.

1.1. Gii quyt vn v qu trnh quyt nh

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Hnh 1.1. Mi lin h gia Gii quyt vn v Ra quyt nh

Xc nh vn Xc nh phng n Xc nh tiu chun Gii quyt vn nh gi phng n Chn phng n Thc hin phng n nh gi kt qu Quyt nh Ra quyt nh

Bc 1: Xc nh vn
5

Gi s c ngi ang tht nghip v mong mun c vic lm va .

Ti ang tht nghip v cn vic lm

Bc 2: Xc nh nhng phng n
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Cho rng vic tm kim vic lm c kt qu cc cng ty ti Nng, Si Gn, H Ni, Qung Nam. Nh th, nhng la chn cho vn ra quyt nh c th nh sau:
Chp nhn cng vic ti Nng Chp nhn cng vic ti Si gn Chp nhn cng vic ti H Ni Chp nhn cng vic ti Qung Nam.

Bc 3: Xc nh tiu chun
7

Ch c mt tiu chun: tin lng, th phng n la chn tt nht s l lng khi im cao nht.
Nhng vn m trong vic tm li gii tt nht ch lu n mt tiu chun gi l nhng vn ra quyt nh mt tiu chun (single-criterion decision problems).

C 3 tiu chun: lng khi im, tim nng thng tin, v v th ngh nghip.
Nhng vn gm nhiu hn mt tiu chun la chn gi l vn ra quyt nh nhiu tiu chun (multicriteria decision problem).

Bc 4: nh gi cc phng n
8

Bng 1-1: D liu ca vn chn ni lm vic

Phng n

Lng khi im (1000ng)

Tim nng thng tin

V th ngh nghip

1. Nng 2. Si Gn 3. H Ni 4. Q.Nam

800 1200 1000 700

Rt tt Trung bnh Tt Rt tt

Tt Tt Trung bnh Tt

Bc 5: Chn phng n
9

By gi chng ta sn sng la chn t nhng phng n kh thi.

Kh khn trong la chn chnh l tm quan trng ca cc phng n khng nh nhau v khng c phng n l no tt nht vi mi tiu chun.

Gi s chng ta sau khi nh gi cn thn d liu Bng 1-1, chng ta quyt nh chn phng n 3. V th, phng n 3 c gi l mt quyt nh (decision).

1.2. Ra quyt nh v phn tch nh lng

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Ra quyt nh l mt qu trnh gm 5 bc v c th chia thnh cc giai on nh trn Hnh 1.2. Hnh 1.2. Cc giai on ca qu trnh ra quyt nh
Cu trc vn Phn tch vn

Xc nh vn

Xc nh phng n

Xc nh tiu chun

nh gi phng n

Chn phng n

1.2. Ra quyt nh v phn tch nh lng

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Hnh 1-3: Vai tr ca phn tch nh tnh v nh lng

Phn tch vn Ph. tch nh tnh

Cu trc vn Xc nh vn
Xc nh phng n

Xc nh tiu chun

Tm lt v nh gi Ph.tch nh lng

Quyt nh

Ti sao phi phn tch nh lng?

12

Vn phc tp; Vn quan trng c bit m nh qun tr mun phn tch trc khi a ra quyt nh; Vn mi m nh qun tr khng c kinh nghim; Nhng vn c c trng lp i lp li, v nh qun tr mun tit kim thi gian v ngun lc bng vic da vo th tc nh lng quyt nh hng ngy.

1.3.1. Cc bc nghin cu nh lng

13

Xy dng m hnh

Chun b D liu

Gii M hnh

Vit bo co

a. Xy dng m hnh
14

M hnh l s ti hin i tng hay tnh hung tht v c th c trnh by nhng dng khc nhau. Gm 3 loi: M hnh tng hnh (iconic models): l nhng m hnh vt th m n l bn sao vt l ca i tng tht. V d: M hnh my bay, m hnh xe ti chi M hnh tng t (analog models): l nhng m hnh vt th nhng dng khng ging nh i tng c m hnh ho. V d: ng h tc ca t l m hnh tng t, Nhit k l m hnh tng t M hnh ton hc: bao gm nhng m hnh trnh by bng h thng cc k hiu v mi lin h hoc biu thc ton hc

a. Xy dng m hnh
15

Mc ch ca m hnh l gip chng ta thc hin suy on v tnh hung hay i tng tht bng vic nghin cu v phn tch m hnh. Nghin cu vi m hnh s tn t thi gian , chi ph v gim ri ro hn so vi th nghim trc tip vi i tng hay tnh hung tht.
Nghin cu m hnh my bay chc chn s nhanh hn v chi ph t hn so vi vic sn xut v nghin cu my bay vi kch thc tht.

Gi tr ca m hnh ph thuc m hnh ti hin tnh hung tht tt nh th no.

Cc thnh phn ca cc m hnh ton hc

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Hm mc tiu (objective function): S biu din bng ton hc nhm m t mc tiu ca bi ton. Nhng rng buc (constraints): rng buc v ngun lc hay nhu cu. Nhng i lng ca m hnh
Nhng u vo khng iu khin: Nhng nhn t mi trng c th nh hng n hm mc tiu v nhng rng buc. Nhng u vo iu khin: Nhng u vo m c th iu khin hay c xc nh bi ngi ra quyt. Nhng u vo iu khin l nhng phng n quyt nh gi l bin quyt nh (decision variables) ca m hnh.

Cc thnh phn ca cc m hnh ton hc

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M hnh c tt c nhng u vo khng iu khin c bit v khng thay i c gi l m hnh tin nh. T sut thu thu nhp khng chu s chi phi ca nh qun tr nn tr thnh u vo khng iu khin trong bt c m hnh quyt nh. Vy, m hnh ton vi t sut thu thu nhp l u vo khng iu khin l m hnh tin nh M hnh c u vo khng iu khin l khng chc chn v rng buc b thay i gi l m hnh ngu nhin hay m hnh xc sut. Mt u vo khng iu khin ca m hnh xy dng k hoch l nhu cu sn phm. V nhu cu thay i nn m hnh s dng cu khng chc chn c gi l m hnh ngu nhin.

S chuyn u vo thnh u ra
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Hnh 1.4 S chuyn u vo ca m hnh thnh u ra

Nhng u vo khng iu khin Nhng u vo iu khin

M hnh ton hc

u ra

S chuyn u vo thnh u ra
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Hnh 1.5 S m hnh sn xut

Nhng u vo khng iu khin -Li nhun mi n v sn phm: 10 -Ch ph lao ng mi sn phm: 5 gi -Nng lc: 40 gi u vo iu khin Gi tr khi lng sn phm sn xut: 8

M hnh ton hc Max 10(8) S.t. 5(8)40 80 u ra Tng li nhun: 80 Thi gian dng cho sn sut: 40

b. Chun b d liu
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D liu l gi tr ca nhng u vo khng iu khin trong m hnh. Tt c d liu phi c xc nh trc khi gii v phn tch m hnh.

Trong nhiu tnh hung khi xy dng m hnh, d liu cha c nn thng dng nhng k hiu xy dng m hnh.

b. Chun b d liu
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Kt qu ca bc xy dng m hnh s l
Max cx S.t. ax b x0

Ch

Chun b d liu l rt cn thit hon thnh m hnh. Thi gian chun b d liu v kh nng sai st trong chn d liu s lm cho bc chun b d liu tr thnh then cht trong qu trnh phn tch nh lng.

c. Gii m hnh
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Nhim v ca bc ny l tm c phng n ti u Th tc gii: phng php th v sai. Nu phng n no khng tho mn mt trong nhng rng buc ca m hnh, phng n b loi v khng chp nhn. Nu phng n no tho mn tt c nhng rng buc, phng n l chp nhn c v c th tr thnh l phng n ti u.

d. Vit bn bo co
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Phng n da trn c s phn tch nh lng l mt trong nhng u vo m nh qun tr xem xt trc khi a ra kt lun cui cng. Bng bo co bao gm:
nhng kin ngh; nhng thng tin thch ng v kt qu c th h tr ra quyt nh.

Bo co phi d hiu i vi nh ra quyt nh

Ch thch
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Phi quan st qu trnh thc thi v tip tc nh gi quyt nh. Thc hin kt qu thnh cng l mt tiu chun quan trng i vi phn tch nh lng cng nh nh qun tr. Mt trong nhng cch hiu qu nht chc chn thc hin thnh cng l phi gm nhng ngi c lin quan trong qu trnh m hnh ho.

CHNG 2

QUI HOCH TUYN TNH

Kt thc chng ny, sinh vin c th: 1. Nm c nhng thnh phn v cc dng khc nhau ca bi ton 2. C th thc hin chuyn i gia cc dng bi ton 3. Xy dng bi ton 4. Nm c cc phng php gii cc bi ton 5. Hiu c bi ton i ngu v thc hin bin i gia bi ton i ngu v bi ton gc 6. Hiu c phn tch nhy v s dng chng trong phn tch 7. Bit c cc bi ton qui hoch nguyn v ng dng ca n 8. S dng c cc phn mm ph bin gii cc bi ton

Mc lc
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2.1. t vn
2.2. Nhng dng bi ton qui hoch 2.3. Nhng phng php gii bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh 2.4. Bi ton i ngu 2.5. Phn tch nhy 2.6. Qui hoch nguyn

2.1. t vn
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Trong thc t, tn ti nhiu bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh p ng nhiu nhu cu khc nhau trong nghin cu. Tuy nhin, xt theo hm mc tiu, cc bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh c th chia thnh hai bi ton c bn sau: Bi ton cc i, Bi ton cc tiu. Cch thc xy dng, dng v cc thnh phn ca bi ton ny nh th no?

2.1.1. Bi ton cc i n gin

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ABC l cng ty nh chuyn sn xut sn phm ho cht. Trong qu trnh sn xut, c 3 nguyn liu th c dng sn xut 2 sn phm: cht ph gia, baz ho tan. Ba nguyn liu th c pha trn thnh cht ph gia v baz ho tan nh trn Bng: Sn phm Cht ph gia Baz ho tan Kh nng cung ng (tn)

Nguyn liu 1 Nguyn liu 2 Nguyn liu 3 Li nhun mi tn

0,4 0,6 40

0,5 0,2 0,3 30

20 5 21

Xy dng bi ton
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Xc nh bin quyt nh F = s tn cht ph gia c sn xut B = s tn baz ho tan c sn xut Hm mc tiu : Max 40F + 30B Cc rng buc 0,4F + 0,5B 20 Nguyn liu 1 0,2B 5 F, B 0 Nguyn liu 2 0,6F + 0,3B 21 Nguyn liu 3

2.1.2. Bi ton cc tiu n gin

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Cng ty ho cht M&D sn xut 2 sn phm A v B bn lm nguyn liu cho cc cng ty sn xut x phng. Da trn mc tn kho hin ti v nhu cu tim tng cho thng ti, cc nh qun tr xc nh tng mc sn xut trong thng ti ca c hai sn phm t nht 350 galng. Ring sn phm A phi khng t hn 125 galng. Thi gian sn xut sn phm A, B tng ng l 2 gi/galng v 1gi/galng. Trong thng n, tng qu thi gian l 600 gi. Chi ph sn xut sn phm A v B tng ng l 2$/galng v 3$/galng. Mc tiu ca cng ty M&D l cc tiu tng chi ph sn xut.

Xy dng bi ton
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K hiu: A = s galng sn phm A c sn xut, B = s galng sn phm B c sn xut. Bi ton: Min 2A+3B Rng buc 1A 125 Nhu cu ca sn phm A 1A+1B 350 Nhu cu tng 2 sn phm 2A+1B 600 Thi gian sn xut A,B 0

2.1.3. Nhng k hiu chung ca bi ton QHTT

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K hiu: x1= s tn cht ph gia c sn xut x2= s tn cht baz ho tan c sn xut Khi , bi ton RMC c dng nh sau: Max (40x1 + 30x2) Rng buc Nguyn liu 1 0,4x1 + 0,5x2 20 0,2x2 5 Nguyn liu 2 0,6x1 + 0,3x2 21 Nguyn liu 3 x1, x2 0

2.1.3. Nhng k hiu chung ca bi ton QHTT

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K hiu: x1= s galng sn phm A c sn xut x2= s galng sn phm B c sn xut Khi , bi ton M&D s c dng nh sau: Min (2x1+3x2) Rng buc 1x1 125 Nhu cu ca sn phm A 1x1+1x2 350 Nhu cu tng cc sn phm 2x1+1x2 600 Thi gian sn xut x1, x2 0

2.2. Nhng dng bi ton qui hoch

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2.2.1. Nhng thnh phn ca bi ton 2.2.2. Cc dng bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh 2.2.3. Bin i dng ca bi ton qui hoch a. a dng tng qut v dng chnh tc b. a dng chnh tc v dng chun

2.2.1. Nhng thnh phn ca bi ton

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Hm mc tiu (Objective function), y l hm tuyn tnh ca cc bin quyt nh v c th t cc tr. Cc rng buc (Constraints) l nhng phng trnh hay bt phng trnh tuyn tnh th hin s kt hp cc bin quyt nh. Cc rng buc v du ca cc bin quyt nh: cc bin quyt nh trong nhng bi ton trong kinh t thng khng m. Tuy nhin, trong trng hp tng qut, cc bin c th nhn gi tr m.

Dng tng qut (theo k hiu thng thng)

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Hm mc tiu Rng buc

f ( x ) = c j x j min(max ) hay Min (Max ) c j x j

j=1 j=1

n a ij x j = b i i I 1 j=1 n a ij x j b i i I 2 j=1 n a ij x j b i i I 3 j=1

Rng buc du: xj0 (jJ1); xj0 (jJ2); xj tu (jJ3)

V d:
37

Max (3x1 S.t.

x 2 + 2x3 +

x 4 + 5x5 ) x5 = 17 20

2x1 x 2 + 4x1 2x 2 + x1 x1 +

x 3 + 2x 4 + x3 + x4

x 2 + 2x3 x 2 + 2x3

x 5 18 100

x1 , x 4 0; x 2 , x 5 0; x 3 ty

I1={2}, I2={1,4} v I3={3} J1={1,4}, J2={2,5} v J3={3}

Dng chnh tc (Theo k hiu thng thng)

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Hm mc tiu f ( x ) = c j x j min(max ) hay Min (Max) c j x j

j=1 j=1

Rng buc

a
j =1

ij

x j =b i i I1

Ch l phng trnh

Rng buc du :

xj0 (jJ1)

Khng m

Dng chnh tc (k hiu ma trn)

39

Min (Max) cx Ax = b x0 Trong :

a 11 a 21 ... A= a i1 ... a m1 a 12 a 22 ... a i2 ... a m2 ... a 1 j ... a 2 j ... ... ... a ij ... a 1n x1 x ... a 2 n 2 ... ... x= ... a in x j ... ... ... a mn x n b1 b 2 b= bi b m

... ... ... a mj

cn )

0 0 0= 0 0

c = (c1 c 2

Dng chun
40

Hm mc tiu f (x) = c j x j min(max) hay Min(Max) c j x j

j=1 j=1

Rng buc

x1 x 2 xm

+ a1(m+1) x(m+1) + a2(m+1) x(m+1) + am(m+1) x(m+1)

+ + a1nxn + + a2nxn + + amnxn

= b1 = b2 = bm

Rng buc du: xj0 j=1,,n v bi 0 i=1,,m

Dng chun (Theo k hiu ma trn)

41

Min (Max) cx S.t. Ax = b Khng m (b0)

x0

Trong :

1 0 A= 0

0 1 0

0 0 1

a1( m +1) a 2( m +1)

a m ( m +1)

a1n a 2n a mn

Ma trn n v cp m

Nhn xt
42

Bi ton dng chun l bi ton dng chnh tc c thm cc iu kin:

Cc s hng t do v phi khng m; Ma trn cc h s cc rng buc A c cha mt ma trn n v cp m.

Hm mc tiu:
Min (3x1-x2+x3-3x4+x5)

Rng buc
2x1+ x2- x3 + x4 2x1-2x2+ x3 + x1 - x2+2x3 +x5 = 10 x6 = 20 = 18 xj 0 j=1,,6

Mt s khi nim
43

Mt tp gi tr ca cc bin quyt nh tha mn cc rng buc ca bi ton gi l phng n ca bi ton. Cc bin ng vi cc vc t ct n v trong ma trn A c gi l cc bin c bn. Cc bin cn li l cc bin khng c bn. Bin c bn ng vi vc t n v th i gi l bin c bn th i. Mt phng n m cc bin khng c bn bng 0 gi l phng n c bn. Mt phng n c bn c m thnh phn dng gi l khng suy bin; c t hn m thnh phn dng gi l suy bin.

2.2.3. Bin i dng ca bi ton qui hoch

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Bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh tn ti nhiu dng khc nhau: dng tng qut, dng chnh tc v dng chun. Trong thut ton gii bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh bng phng php n hnh i hi bi ton dng chun. Chnh v vy, cn phi chuyn bi ton dng tng qut, dng chnh tc v dng chun.

Dng tng qut Dng tng qut

Dng chnh tc Dng chnh tc

Dng chun Dng chun

a. a dng tng qut v dng chnh tc

45

Nu rng buc dng cng thm vo v tri mt bin ph khng m xn+10 bin v dng phng trnh; Nu gp rng buc dng tr ra v tri mt bin ph khng m xn+10 bin thnh phng trnh; Nu gp bin xj 0 thay xj=-tj vi tj 0; Nu gp bin xj tu thay xj=xj-xj vi xj 0 v xj0.

b. a dng chnh tc v dng chun

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Nu s hng t do v phi m th i du hai v c s hng t do dng; Thm vo mi phng trnh mt bin gi khng m xn+10 vi h s 1; Trong hm mc tiu, cc bin gi c h s l M (i vi bi ton Min) v c h s l M (i vi bi ton Min). Bi ton mi gi l bi ton m rng ca bi ton xut pht.

Ch
47

Phn bit bin ph v bin gi vi 3 im sau: Bin ph a bi ton dng tng qut v dng chnh tc cn bin gi a dng chnh tc v dng chun. Trong hm mc tiu, h s ca cc bin gi bng M nu bi ton dng Min, bng M nu bi ton dng Max cn bin ph lun c h s bng 0. Bin ph l con s thc gip chng ta bin i rng buc dng bt phng trnh v phng trnh cn bin gi th 2 v bng nhau m vn cng thm l lm vic gi to to ra vc t n v m thi.

Ch
48

Nu bi ton dng chnh tc c sn mt s vc t ct n v trong A, th ch cn thm bin gi vo nhng phng trnh cn thit to bi ton m rng dng chun. Quan h gia bi ton xut pht v bi ton m rng: Nu cc bin gi u bng 0, th bi bi ton mi li chnh l bi ton xut pht, v vy phi lm sao cho cc bin gi bng 0. t c kt qu c b tr sn nh sau: Vi bi ton min, cc bin gi c h s bng M. Vi bi ton max, cc bin gi c h s bng M.

Nhn xt
49

Nu xT=(x1 x2xn) l phng n ca bi ton xut pht th (x*)T=(x1 x2xn 00) s l phng n ca bi ton m rng; Nu (x0)T=(x10 x20xn0) l phng n ti u ca bi ton xut pht th (x*0)T=(x10 x20xn 0 00) l phng n ti u ca bi ton m rng.

2.3. Nhng phng php gii bi ton QHTT

50

2.3.1. Phng php th a. Xc nh min chp nhn c b. Tm gi tr ca hm mc tiu trn min chp nhn 2.3.2. Phng php n hnh a. Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton dng chun b. Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton m rng c. Gii bng my tnh

2.3.1. Phng php th

51

Trong cc phng php gii bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh, phng php th (Phng php hnh hc) thng c s dng. Phng php ny c u im l trc quan, d hiu. Tuy nhin, phng php ny ch dng gii nhng bi ton hai bin quyt nh. V c bn phng php ny gm hai bc sau: Xc nh min phng n chp nhn c; T tm phng n ti u trn min cht nhn .

a. Xc nh min chp nhn bng th

52

Mi trc th hin mt bin quyt nh; Mi rng buc v mt ng thng xc nh min chp nhn:
Mi ng thng ch cn v 2 im v ni chng vi nhau; Chn mt im bt k tho mn rng buc, min cha im s l min chp nhn tha mn rng buc ang xt; Giao tt c cc min chp nhn ca cc rng buc hnh thnh vng chp nhn ca bi ton. Bt c im no nm trn ng bin ca vng chp nhn hoc trong vng chp nhn c gi l im phng n chp nhn c i vi bi ton qui hoch.

a. Tip
53

70

S tn cht baz ho tan

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0

Nguyn liu 3

Nguyn liu 2

Vng chp nhn

Nguyn liu 1

10

20

30

40

50

S tn cht ph gia

b. Tm gi tr ca hm mc tiu trn min chp nhn

54
70

S tn cht baz ho tan

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20

Phng n ti u F=25, B=20

30

40

50

S tn cht ph gia

Tm tt v phng php th
55

V th cc rng buc:
Mi rng buc v mt ng thng v xc nh min chp nhn c ca mi rng buc;

Xc nh vng chp nhn c:

Giao ca cc min chp nhn ca tt c nhng rng buc ca bi ton;

V ng mc tiu
Cho hm mc tiu bng mt gi tr bt k v v ng mc tiu. i vi bi ton cc i, tnh tin ng mc tiu trong vng chp nhn theo hng lm gi tr ca hm mc tiu ln hn cho n khi gi tr ca hm mc tiu ln nht (i vi bi ton cc tiu th ngc li);

Bt k phng n trn ng mc tiu vi gi tr ln nht (i vi bi ton cc i) l phng n ti u.

2.3.2. Phng php n hnh

56

a. b.

C s ton hc ca phng php Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton dng chun

c.

Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton m rng

d.

Gii bng my tnh

C s ton ca phng php

57

Tnh cht 1: Nu bi ton c phng n ti u th cng c phng n c bn ti u. Tnh cht 2: S phng n c bn l hu hn. Tnh cht 3: iu kin cn v bi ton c phng n ti u l hm mc tiu ca n b chn di khi f(x)min v b chn trn khi f(x)max trn tp phng n.

Thut ton bi ton Min

58

Bc 1: Chuyn bi ton v dng chun Bc 2: Lp bng n hnh u tin Bin x1 x2 xr xm c H cm bn s c1 c2 ... cr x1 x2 xr xm c1 c2 cr ... cm 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ... ... ... ... ... 0 0 1 0 0 ... ... ... ... ... 0 0 ... 0 ... 1 0 xm+1 cm+1 xv xn cv ... cn P.n b1 b2 ... br ... bm f0 T s i

a1(m+1) ... a1v ... a1n a2(m+1) ... a2v ... a2n ... ar(m+1) ... m+1 ... ... ... ...
m i =1

... ... ... ...

... ... ... ... ... ...

... arv ... v

... ... ... ...

... arn ... n

am(m+1) ... amv ... amn

m

f 0 = ci b i & j = ci a ij c j
i =1

Thut ton bi ton Min

59

Bc 3: Kim tra tnh ti u

Nu j 0 j phng n ang xt l ti u v gi tr hm mc tiu l f(x)=f0. Nu j > 0 m aij 0 i khng c phng n ti u.

Nu c 2 trng hp trn khng xy ra th chuyn sang bc 3. Bc 4: Tm bin a vo

Nu v=max(j) th xv c a vo, ct v l ct ch yu.

Bc 5: Tm bin a ra
Tnh i = bi/aiv ng vi cc aiv > 0 Nu r=mini th xr l bin a ra. Hng r l hng ch yu, phn t arv l phn t trc xoay.

Thut ton bi ton Min

60

Bc 6: Bin i bng nh sau :

Thay xr bng xv v cr bng cv. Cc bin c bn khc v h s tng ng nguyn. Chia hng ch yu (hng r) cho phn t trc xoay arv, chng ta c hng r mi gi l hng chun. Mun c hng i mi (ir), ly aiv nhn vi hng chun ri cng vo hng i c. Mun c hng cui mi, ly -v nhn vi hng chun ri cng vo hng cui c. Hng cui (gm f v j) cng c th tnh trc tip nh bc 1 vi bng mi va c to.

Quay li bc 2

V d
61

Hm mc tiu Min(6x1+x2+x3+3x4+x5-7x6) Rng buc -x1+x2 - x4 + x6 = 15 -2x1 + x3 - 2x6 = 9 4x1 + 2x4 + x5-3x6 = 2 Rng buc du xj 0 (mi j)

Gii
62

Bi ton ny c dng chun, vy c th lp bng nh sau : Bin c bn x2 x3 x5 H s 1 1 1 x1 6 -1 -2 4 -5 x2 1 1 0 0 0 x3 1 0 1 0 0 x4 3 -1 0 2 -2 x5 1 0 0 1 0 x6 -7 1 -2 -3 3 i

P.n

15 15 9 2 26

Li gii
63

Bng 2 Bin c bn x6 x3 x5 H s -7 1 1 x1 6 -1 -4 1 -2 x2 1 1 2 3 -3 x3 1 0 1 0 0 x4 3 -1 -2 -1 1 x5 1 0 0 1 0 x6 -7 1 0 0 0
P.n

15 39 47 -19

Khng c phng n ti u

Thut ton bi ton Max

64

So vi bi ton Min, bi ton Max c cc thay i sau: 1. bc 3: Kim tra tnh ti u

+ Phng n ti u khi j0 j + Nu j < 0 m aij 0 i th bi ton khng c phng n ti u.

2. bc 4: Tm bin a vo
Bin chn a vo l bin c j m v nh nht

V d 2: Bi ton ABC
65

V trong cc rng buc c cc bt ng thc nn a thm cc bin ph (Slack) vo cc rng buc nh sau : Hm mc tiu
Max 40F+30B

Rng buc
0,4F + 0,5B +1S1 0,2B + 0,6F + 0,3B + 1S2 = 20 =5 1S3 = 21 Nguyn liu 1 Nguyn liu 2 Nguyn liu 3

Rng buc du
F, B, S1, S2, S3 0

V d 2: Bi ton ABC
66

Thnh lp bng n hnh u tin Bin H s c bn S1 S2 S3 0 0 0 0 F 40 0,4 0 0,6 -40 B 30 0,5 0,2 0,3 -30 S1 0 1 0 0 0 S2 0 0 1 0 0 S3 0 0 0 1 0 bi 20 5 21 0 35 i 50

V d 2: Bi ton ABC
67

Bng 2 Bin H c s bn S1 S2 F 0 0 40 F 40 0 0 1 0 B 30 0,3 0,2 0,5 -10 S1 0 1 0 0 0 S2 0 0 1 0 0 S3 0 -2/3 0 10/6 200/3 P.n 6 5 35 1400 i 20 25 70

V d 2: Bi ton ABC
68

Bng 3 Bin c H s bn B S2 F 30 0 40 F 40 0 0 1 0 B 30 1 0 0 0 S1 0 10/3 -2/3 -5/3 100/3 S2 0 0 1 0 0 S3 0 -20/9 4/9 25/9 400/9 P.n 20 1 25 1600 i

b. Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton m rng

69

Dng bin gi a bi ton dng chnh tc v dng chun v gii bi ton y theo nh trnh by. Nhn xt:
Nu bi ton m rng khng c phng n ti u th bi ton xut pht cng khng c phng n ti u. Nu bi ton m rng c phng n ti u m cc bin gi u bng 0 th b bin gi i, chng ta c phng n ti u ca bi ton xut pht. Nu bi ton m rng c phng n ti u m trong c t nht mt bin gi dng th bi ton xut pht khng c phng n ti u.

b. Thut ton n hnh gii bi ton m rng

70

Trong bi ton m rng, j v f(x*) s gm 2 phn:

mt phn ph thuc vo M, mt phn khng ph thuc vo M.

Hng cui ca bng chia hai dng nh:

dng trn ghi phn khng ph thuc M, dng di ghi h s M.

Mi khi mt bin gi b a khi h bin c bn th s khng c a tr li, v vy c th khng cn ch ti cc ct ng vi bin gi.

V d gii bi ton m rng

71

Min(x1+2x2+x4-5x5) S.t.
-3x3-9x4=0 x2-7x3-x4-2x5=5 x1-1/3x2+2/3x3+4/3x4+1/3x5=2/3 xj0 j

Min(x1+2x2+x4-5x5+Mx6+Mx7) S.t. + x6 =0 3x3 - 9x4 Chuyn dng x2 - 7x3 - x4 - 2x5 + x7 = 5 x1 1/3x2 + 2/3x3 + 4/3x4 + 1/3x5 =2/3 xj0 j

Gii bi ton m rng

72

Bin c H s bn x6 x7 x1 M M 1

x1 1 0 0 1 0 0

x2 2 0 1 -1/3 -7/3 1

x3 0 -3 -7 2/3 2/3 -10

x4 1 -9 -1 4/3 1/3 -10

x5 -5 0 -2 1/3 16/3 -2

Ph.n 0 5 2/3 2/3 5

Gii bi ton m rng

73

Bin c H s bn x6 x2 x1 M 2 1

x1 1 0 0 1 0 0

x2 2 0 1 0

x3 0 -3 -7 -5/3

x4 1 -9 -1 1 -2 -9

x5

-5 Ph.n 0 -2 0 5 7/3 37/0 0

-1/3 2/3 0

0 -47/3 0 -3

2.4. Bi ton i ngu

74

2.4.1. Khi nim bi ton i ngu

2.4.2. Qui tc lp bi ton i ngu

2.4.3. Quan h gia bi ton gc v bi ton i ngu

2.4.1. Khi nim bi ton i ngu

75

Cho bi ton chnh tc gc (P): Hm mc tiu:

Bi ton D sau y c gi l bi ton i ngu ca bi ton gc: Hm mc tiu

f ( x ) = c j x j min
j=1

g ( y) = b i y i max
i =1

Rng buc

Rng buc

a
j=1

ij

x j = b i (i = 1, m)

a
i =1

ij

y i c j ( j = 1, n )

Rng buc du: xj 0 vi mi j

Rng buc du: yi tu v du vi mi i

Nhn xt
76

Hm mc tiu ca P l f(x) min th hm mc tiu ca D l g(y)max v ngc li. S bin ca bi ton ny l s rng buc ca bi ton kia v ngc li Cc h s cj v cc s hng t do hai bi ton i ngc li nhau Ma trn h s cc rng buc hai bi ton l chuyn v ca nhau. Hng i ca ma trn A=(aij)mn xc nh rng buc th i ca bi ton gc aijxj=bi cn ct j trong ma trn A xc nh rng buc th j ca bi ton i ngu aijyj=()cj

2.4.2. Qui tc lp bi ton i ngu

77

Bi ton P
f ( x ) = c j x j min
j=1 n

Bi ton D
g ( y) = b i y i max
i =1 n

a ij x j b i (i = 1, m) j=1 =
n

yi 0 ty y

x j 0 ty y

a ij y i c j i =1 =
m

2.4.3. Quan h gia bi ton gc v bi ton i ngu

78

nh l: Vi cp bi ton P v D, ch xy ra mt trong 3 trng hp sau: 1. C hai u khng c phng n 2. C hai u c phng n, lc c hai cng c phng n ti u v gi tr hai hm mc tiu i vi phng n ti u bng nhau. 3. Mt trong hai bi ton khng c phng n, cn bi ton kia c phng n. Khi , bi ton c phng n s khng c phng n ti u v hm mc tiu ca n khng b chn.

2.5. Phn tch nhy

79

2.5.1. Gii thiu phn tch nhy

2.5.2. Cc h s ca hm mc tiu

2.5.3. V phi

2.5.1. Gii thiu phn tch nhy

80

Khng thay i phng n ti u Thay i phng n ti u nhng c th tn dng bng ti u c gii

Mc thay i

Thay i qu ln nn phi gii li t u

2.5.1. Gii thiu phn tch nhy

81

Phn tch nhy l nghin cu s thay i ca nhng h s trong bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh nh hng nh th no n phng n ti u. Mc tiu:
Xem xt h s trong hm mc tiu thay i nh hng nh th no n phng n ti u? Gi tr v phi ca cc rng buc nh hng nh th no n phng n ti u? Xc nh bin s no trong bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh l ch yu?

2.5.1. Tip
82

Bi ton ABC
Max 40F+30B

Rng buc
0,4F+0,5B 20 0,2B 5 0,6F+0,3B 21 F,B 0 Nguyn liu 1 Nguyn liu 2 Nguyn liu 3

Phng n ti u, F=25 tn v B=20 tn, gi tr hm mc tiu 1600$

2.5.2. Cc h s ca hm mc tiu
83

Nhm xem xt s thay i ca cc h s hm mc tiu n phng n ti u c th thc hin bng 2 phng php: th: trc quan nhng khng khi qut Phng php n hnh: c tnh khi qut nhng kh.

Phng php th
84
50

S t c b z h ta n ht a o n

B
40

30

Phng n ti u
20

10

A
0 0 10 20 30 40 50
S tn cht ph gia

Phng php th
85

Mt cch tng qut ng mc tiu c dng: D=cFF+cBB hay B=-(cF/cB)F+D/cB ng A chnh l ng rng buc nguyn liu 1: 0,4F + 0,5B = 20 hay B=-0,8F+40 ng B chnh l ng rng buc nguyn liu 3: 0,6F + 0,3B = 21 hay B=-2F+40 Nh vy, h s gc ca ng mc tiu nm trong gii hn: -2-cF/cB -0,8 hay 2cF/cB 0,8. Vi cB khng i, tc bng 30 th 24 cF 60 Vi cF khng i, tc bng 40 th 20 cB 50

Phng php n hnh

86

Bng n hnh cui cng F Bin B S2 F H s 30 0 40 40 0 0 1 0 B 30 1 0 0 0 S1 0 10/3 -2/3 -5/3 100/3 S2 0 0 1 0 0 S3 0 -20/9 4/9 25/9 400/9 P. n 20 1 25 1600

Phng php n hnh

87

Bng n hnh cui Bin B S2 F H s 30 0 cF F cF 0 0 1 0 B 30 1 0 0 0 S1 0 10/3 -2/3 -5/3 S2 0 0 1 0 0

-600/9+25cF/9 0

S3 0 -20/9 4/9 25/9

P. n 20 1 25

100-5cF/3 0

Phng php n hnh

88

Vi 100-5cF/3 0 Suy ra cF60 Vi -600/9+25cF/9 0 Suy ra cF24 Nh vy: 24cF 60 Tng t, kt qu l: 20 cB 50

Kt qu gii bng my tnh

89

Khi kt qu nh sau:
Final Value Reduced Cost Objective Allowable Allowable Coefficient Increase Decrease

Name

Cht ph gia Baz ho tan

25 20

0 0

40 30

20 20

16 10

S thay i ng thi
90

Phn tch nhy theo h s ca hm mc tiu da vo gi thit rng mi lc ch mt h s thay i v tt c nhng nh hng khc ca bi ton gc khng thay i. Tuy nhin, trong mt vi tnh hung, chng ta mun quan tm ci g s xy ra nu nhiu h s ca hm mc tiu thay i ng thi.

Qui tc 100%
91

Nu tt c cc h s ca hm mc tiu thay i, tnh tng % tng cho php v % gim cho php. Nu tng % t hn hay bng 100%, phng n ti u khng thay i. Ch : qui tc 100% khng ni rng phng n ti u s thay i nu tng % tng cho php v gim cho php hn 100. Chng ta ch c th ni rng nu tng % ln hn 100, mt phng n ti u khc c l tn ti. V th, bt c khi no tng % thay i l ln hn 100, bi ton iu chnh phi c gii li xc nh phng n ti u mi.

2.5.3. V phi
92

Bi ton RMC Hm mc tiu

Max 40F+30B

Rng buc
0,4F+0,5B 20 Nguyn liu 1 0,2B 5 Nguyn liu 2 0,6F+0,3B 25,5 Nguyn liu 3 F,B 0

2.5.3. V phi
93

Mc ch: tm vai tr quan trng ca mi nhn t. T , xem xt phng n tng thm loi nguyn liu no em li li nhun cao nht.

Ch khi thay i v phi ca h rng buc min chp nhn s thay i.

2.5.3. V phi
94

Phng n ti u mi l F=37,5 tn v B=10 tn Gi tr hm mc tiu mi l 1800$

Nhn xt
95

So vi ban u, khi tng thm 4,5 tn nguyn liu 3 th li nhun tng 200$. Nh vy, mi tn nguyn liu 3 tng thm s lm tng 44,44$ li nhun. Tng t, c th thay i cc nguyn liu khc.

Trong cc kt xut ca my tnh, nhng gi tr ny nm ct c nhn dual price hay shadow price.

Kt qu ca my tnh
96

Bng EXCEL, kt qu nh sau:

Final Name Value Shadow Price Constraint Allowable Allowable R.H. Side Increase Decrease

Nguyn liu 1 Nguyn liu 2 Nguyn liu 3

20 4 21

33,333 0 44,444

20 5 21

1,5 1E+30 9

6 1 2,25

Trong EXCEL, Kt qu ny c kt xut ng thi trong phn tch cc h s ca hm mc tiu nh trn

2.6. Qui hoch nguyn

97

2.6.1. Cc dng m hnh qui hoch nguyn

2.6.2. Gii bi ton qui hoch nguyn

2.6.3. Nhng ng dng qui hoch c cc bin 01

2.6.1. Cc dng m hnh qui hoch nguyn

98

Nhng bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh vi mt hay nhiu bin nhn gi tr nguyn c gi l qui hoch tuyn tnh nguyn. Nu mt vi, nhng khng phi tt c cc bin phi nguyn, gi l qui hoch nguyn b phn. Nu tt c bin phi l s nguyn, gi l c qui hoch nguyn hon ton. Nu tt c cc bin l bin 0-1, gi l qui hoch tuyn tnh nguyn 0-1 (nh phn).

Qui hoch nguyn hon ton

99

Max 2x1 + 3x2 S.t.

3x1 + 3x2 12 2/3x1 + 1x2 4 1x1 + 2x2 6 x1, x2 0 v nguyn

Qui hoch tuyn tnh m do b yu cu nguyn gi l qui hoch tuyn tnh ni lng (LPR) ca qui hoch tuyn tnh nguyn.

Qui hoch nguyn b phn

100

Max 3x1 + 4x2 S.t.

-1x1 + 2x2 8 1x1 + 2x212 2x1 + 1x2 16 x1, x2 0 v x2 nguyn B rng buc x2 l nguyn, chng ta c qui hoch nguyn ni lng LPR ca qui hoch nguyn b phn

Bi ton
101

Cng ty bt ng sn Eastborne c 2000000$ c th dng mua ti sn cho thu mi. Sau nhng kho st ban u, Eastborne thy c th u t vo ngi nh ring v chung c. S ngi nh ring c th mua c 5 ci vi gi mi ci l 282000$. Mi chung c c th mua c gi vi 400000$. Cc nh qun tr ti sn ca Eastborne c th dnh n 140 gi mi thng cho nhng ti sn mi ny; mi ngi nh ring cn 4 gi mi thng, v mi chung c cn 40 gi mi thng. Doanh thu hng nm, sau khi khu tr tin th chp v chi tiu hot ng, c lng 10000$ mi ngi nh ring v 15000$ mi chung c. Cc nh qun tr ca Eastborne mun xc nh s ngi nh ring v s chung c mua sao cho cc i doanh thu hng nm.

M hnh bi ton
102

Xc nh bin quyt nh nh sau:

T = s ngi nh ring A= s chung c

Hm mc tiu (1000$)
Max(10T +15A)

S.t.
282T + 400A 2000 Qu kh dng 4T + 40A 140 Thi gian ca nh qun tr T 5 S ngi nh ring c th mua T, A 0 v nguyn

Gii bng th bi ton qui hoch nguyn ni lng LPR

103

Gi s b rng buc nguyn, tin hnh gii bng phng php thng thng; Lm trn xc nh nghim nguyn: dng phng php th v sai.

Gii bng th i vi bi ton qui hoch nguyn hon ton

104

Xc nh min chp nhn gm cc im, tm im cc bin v gi tr hm ti u

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Ch : cc im th hin phng n nguyn chp nhn

Phng n nguyn ti u T=4, A=2 Vng chp nhn

Gii bng my tnh

105

Cc phn mm my tnh c th gii bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh nguyn. D liu u vo hon ton ging nh bt k bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh nhng ch thm iu kin l bin nguyn.

D ton vn
106 Cng ty thit b ng lnh ang quan tm u t vo mt s d n m nhu cu vn khc nhau qua 4 nm ti. i mt vi nhng gii hn ngun vn mi nm, nh qun tr mun chn nhng d n c li nhun ln nht. Nhng gi tr hin ti thun c c lng cho mi d n, nhu cu vn, v ngun vn c th dng qua cc giai on trong 4 nm nh sau: D n (1000$) M rng M rng Mua nh my kho mi MMTB
Ga tr hin ti thun

Nghin cu Tng vn sn phm kh dng mi 37 15 10 10 40 50 40 35

90 15 20 20 15

40 10 15 20 5

10 10

Vn nm 1 Vn nm 2 Vn nm 3 Vn nm 4

10

M hnh bi ton
107

Bn bin quyt nh 01 nh sau: P= 1 nu d n m rng nh my c chp nhn; 0 nu b bc b; W= 1 nu d n m rng kho c chp nhn; 0 nu b bc b; M= 1 nu d n my mc thit b mi c chp nhn; 0 nu b bc b; R= 1 nu d n nghin cu sn phm mi c chp nhn; 0 nu b bc b.

M hnh bi ton
108

Max 90P + 40W + 10M +37R S.t. 15P 20P 20P 15P + 10W + 15W + 20W + 5W + + + + 4M 10M + 15R + + + 10R 10R 10R 40 Kh nng vn nm 1 50 Kh nng vn nm 2 40 Kh nng vn nm 3 35 Kh nng vn nm 4

P,W,M,R= 0,1

Gii bng my tnh

109

Bi ton RMC c chi ph c nh

110

Xem li bi ton RMC. Ba nguyn liu th c dng sn xut 3 sn phm: cht ph gia, baz ho tan, v cht chi thm. Nhng bin quyt nh l: F, S, C tng ng l s tn cht ph gia, cht baz ho tan, cht chi thm c sn xut. Li nhun mi tn cht ph gia l 40$, baz ho tan 30$, v cht chi thm l 50$. Mi tn cht ph gia gm 0,4 tn nguyn liu 1 v 0,6 tn nguyn liu 3. Mi tn baz ho tan gm 0,5 tn nguyn liu 1; 0,2 tn nguyn liu 2, v 0,3 tn nguyn liu 3. Mi tn cht chi thm gm 0,6 tn nguyn liu 1; 0,1 tn nguyn liu 2, v 0,3 tn nguyn liu 3. RMC c 20 tn nguyn liu 1; 5 tn nguyn liu 2, v 21 tn nguyn liu 3, v quan tm xc nh lng sn xut ti u.

Bi ton ABC c chi ph c nh

111

M hnh qui hoch tuyn tnh ca bi ton ABC l Max 40F +30B + 50C S.t. 0,4F + 0,5B + 0,6C 20 Nguyn liu 1 0,2B + 0,1 C 5 Nguyn liu 2 0,6F + 0,3B + 0,3C 21 Nguyn liu 3 F, B, C 0
Phng n ti u: F= 27,5 tn cht ph gia, B=0 tn, C= 15 tn, vi gi tr ca hm mc tiu 1850$ nh Hnh 2.19

Bi ton RMC c chi ph c nh

112

Xy dng bi ton qui hoch tuyn tnh ca bi ton RMC khng bao gm chi ph c nh sn xut sn phm. Gi s rng c ngun d liu v chi ph c nh v lng sn xut ti a cho mi sn phm nh sau:

Sn phm Cht ph gia Baz ho tan Cht chi thm

Chi ph c nh ($) 200 50 400

Lng ti a (tn) 50 25 40

Bi ton RMC c chi ph c nh

113

Bin 0-1 c th dng a chi ph c nh vo trong m hnh sn xut. Bin 0-1 c xc nh nh sau:
SF=1 nu cht ph gia l c sn xut; 0 nu khng SB=1 nu baz ho tan c sn xut; 0 nu khng SC=1 nu cht chi thm l c sn xut; 0 nu khng

Khi dng nhng bin ny, tng chi ph c nh l: 200SF + 50SB+400SC

Bi ton ABC c chi ph c nh

114

Max 40F + 30B + 50C - 200SF - 50SB - 400SC S.t. 0,4F + 0,5B + 0,6C 20 0,2B + 0,1C 5 0,6F+ 0,3B+ 0,3C 21 F- 50SF 0 S- 25SB 0 C- 40SC 0 F,B,C 0; SF,SB,SC= 0, 1 Nguyn liu 1 Nguyn liu 2 Nguyn liu 3 Max F Max S Max C

Gii bng my tnh i vi bi ton ABC c chi ph c nh

115

Chng 3

M HNH MNG
Kt thc chng ny, sinh vin c th: 1. Nm c nhng khi nim c bn ca m hnh mng 2. Hiu c bi ton ng i ngn nht v vn dng vo kinh t 3. Hiu c bi ton cy bao trm ti thiu v vn dng vo kinh t 4. Hiu c bi ton ng dng cc i v vn dng vo kinh t

Mc lc
117

3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

3.2. Bi ton ng ngn nht 3.3. Bi ton cy bao trm ti thiu 3.4. Bi ton dng cc i

3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

118

th v hng G l mt cp gm hai tp N v A, k hiu G(N,A), vi N l tp cc nt v A l tp cc cung v hng. Cung v hng l mt cp khng k n th t hai nt khc nhau i v j (i,jN) k hiu l (i,j). Trong th v hng, cung (i,j) = cung (j,i). Mt ng i t nt i1 n nt it l b gm t nt khc nhau i1,, it sao cho (ik, ik+1)A. Chu trnh l b gm t nt i1,,it sao cho i1,, it-1 l mt ng i vi it=i1 v c t nht ba nt khc nhau. th v hng c gi l lin thng nu ng vi mi cp i,jN u c mt ng i t i n j.

3.1. Cc khi nim c bn

119

th G (N,A) l th c hng nu mi cung l mt cp c th t. Trong th c hng, (i,j) (j,i). Trong th c hng c th cha c hai cung (i,j) v (j,i), nn xc nh mt ng i phi ni r c dy nt i1,,it v dy cung a1,,at-1. th c hng l lin thng nu th v hng tng ng l lin thng. Cy l mt th v hng, lin thng v khng c chu trnh. Cy bao trm ca th G (N,A) l mt cy trong G c cha tt c cc nt ca G cn s cung c th t hn. Do vy, cy bao trm l cy Gs (Ns, As) c Ns=N v As A.

3.2. Bi ton ng ngn nht Shortest path problem

120

3.2.1. t vn 3.2.2. M t dng ton hc 3.2.3. Thut ton t nhn

3.2.1. t vn
121

Cng ty ABC c mt vi d n xy dng nm khp ni trong a bn tnh. Hng ngy cng ty c nhiu chuyn xe a cng nhn, chuyn ch thit b v vt t i li gia tr s cng ty v cc cng trng xy dng. Cng ty mun xc nh cc tuyn ng ngn nht nhm ti thiu khong cch di chuyn t vn phng cng ty n cc cng trng. Cc tuyn ng m phng tin ca cng ty i li hng ngy c th c m t bng s mng nh sau:

Mng tuyn ng di chuyn n cc cng trng ca cng ty ABC

122

7 17 2 15 1 10 3 3 4 6 4 2 5 6 4 5 6

3.2.2. M t dng ton hc ca bi ton

123

Cho mt th c hng G (N,A). Mi cung c di cij> 0 v cng chnh l khong cch gia hai nt. tm ng ngn nht t mt nt i n nt k bt k (kN) chnh l tm ng ngn nht t nhiu hoc thm ch mi nt khc nt i n nt k. Vy, bi ton ng ngn nht l bi ton tm ng ngn nht t mi nt iN n mt nt kN cho trc trn th G(N,A).

3.2.3. Thut ton t nhn

124

Thut ton t nhn l thut ton da vo vic t nhn cho cc nt tm ng ngn nht. Nhn ca nt i gm 2 con s nm trong du ngoc vung v c k hiu l [c1i, T], trong c1i l gi tr khong cch t nt 1 n nt i, v T l k hiu s th t ca nt ng ngay trc nt i theo ng i t nt 1 n nt i. Nt cha t nhn l nt cha xc nh c ng i t nt 1 n nt . Nt c t nhn tm thi l nt xc nh c mt ng i t nt 1 n nt . Nt c nhn c nh khi thut ton xc nh c ng i ngn nht t nt 1 n nt .

3.2.3. Cc bc ca thut ton t nhn

125

Bc 1: u tin, gi s nt 1 c nhn c nh [0,S]. Bc 2: t nhn tm thi cho cc nt lin thng trc tip t nt 1. Gi N1 l tp cc nt c nhn tm thi vi nt 1. Gi s nt i N1 l nt lin thng trc tip vi nt 1 s c nhn tm thi l [c1i, 1]. Tin hnh t nhn c nh cho nt kN1 tha mn iu kin c1k= min {c1i}, iN1. Loi nt k ra khi nt c nhn tm thi.

3.2.3. Cc bc
126

Bc 3: Xt cc nt lin thng vi nt k: t nhn tm thi cho nhng nt lin thng vi nt k v cha t nhn. iu chnh nhn tm thi cho tt c cc nt theo nguyn tc: gi s nt j ang xt, lin thng vi nt k bng cung (k,j) th thay th gi tr khong cch ca nhn nt j bng min {c1j, c1k + ckj}. Gi Ntt l tp cc nt c nhn tm thi. Xt cc c1j vi j Ntt gi s c1m= min {c1j}. Nh vy, t nhn c nh cho nt m. Tip tc qui trnh ny cho n khi tt c cc nt c nhn c nh th kt thc thut ton.

3.2.3. Cc bc
127

Bc 4: Xc nh khong cch ngn nht t nt 1 n nt bt k. ng ngn nht n mt nt nht nh k c th tm bng cch xut pht t nt k v di chuyn ngc v nt ngay trc. Tip tc di chuyn ngc chiu qua mng s tm thy ng ngn nht t nt 1 n nt ang cp.

ng dng thut ton cho mng cng ty ABC

128

Bc 1: Nt 1 c nhn c nh [0,S] 17 2 [0,S] 1 10 5 3 4 15 3 6 4 2 6 4 5 6 7

ng dng
129

Bc 2: Tp cc nt lin thng vi nt 1 l nt 2 v 3. t nhn tm thi cho cc nt 2, 3 ln lt l [15,1], [10,1]. Nt 3 [10,1] c t nhn c nh. 7 17 5 [15,1] 2 4 6 15 6 [0,S] 4 1 3 6 10 2 5 [10,1] 3 4

ng dng
130

Bc 3: Cc nt lin thng vi nt 3 l 2 v 5. t nhn tm thi cho nt 5 [14,3]; iu chnh nhn tm thi cho nt 2 thnh [13,3]. t nhn c nh cho nt 2. 17 [13,3] [0,S] 1 10 5 [10,1] 3 4 [14,3] 15 3 2 6 4 2 6 4 5 6 7

ng dng
131

t nhn tm thi cho nt 4 v 7: 4 [19,2] v 7 [30,2]. Xt tp cc nt c nhn tm thi, la chn nt c gi tr khong cch nh nht. Nt c la chn l nt 5. 7 17 [30,2] 5 2 [13,3] 4 [19,2] 6 15 6 [0,S] 4 1 3 6 10 2 5 [10,1] 3 4 [14,3]

ng dng
132

Xt cc nt lin thng vi nt 5. t nhn tm thi cho nt 6 [16,5], iu chnh nhn tm thi cho nt 4 [18,5]. Xt 3 nt tm thi 4,6,7. Nt 6 s c t nhn c nh 7 17 [30,2] 5 2 [13,3] 4 [18,5] 6 15 6 [0,S] 4 1 3 6 [16,5] 10 2 5 [10,1] 3 4 [14,3]

ng dng
133

iu chnh nhn tm thi cho nt 7: [22,6]. V nt 4 c chn t nhn c nh: 4 [18,5]. 17 [13,3] [0,S] 1 10 5 [10,1] 3 4 [14,3] 15 3 2 6 4 2 6 [16,5] 5 4 [18,5] 6 7 [22,6]

ng dng
134

Cui cng, ch c nt 7 lin thng vi nt 4. V c14+5=18+5=23>22 nn khng iu chnh nhn ca nt 7. Nt 7 l nt cui cng c t nhn c nh. 17 [13,3] [0,S] 1 10 5 [10,1] 3 4 [14,3] 15 3 2 6 4 2 6 [16,5] 5 4 [18,5] 6 7 [22,6]

3.2.3. Thut ton t nhn

135

ng ngn nht t nt 1 n cc nt khc Nt 2 3 4 5 6 7 ng ngn nht t nt 1 1-3-2 1-3 1-3-5-4 1-3-5 1-3-5-6 1-3-5-6-7 Khong cch bng km 13 10 18 14 16 22

3.3. Bi ton cy bao trm ti thiu (Spanning Tree Problem)

136

3.2.1 t vn 3.2.2. M t dng ton hc ca bi ton 3.2.3. Thut ton cy bao trm ti thiu

3.3.1. t vn
137

Trung tm my tnh khu vc phi lp t ng cp truyn thng lin kt 5 ngi s dng my tnh vi mt my ch trung tm. Vic lp t l mt cng vic tn km. Nhm gim chi ph, nhm qun tr mng trung tm mun tng chiu di ng cp truyn thng cng ngn cng tt. Trong mng, my tnh trung tm c th c kt ni trc tip vi tng ngi s dng v cho php nhng ngi s dng khc tham gia vo h thng bng cch lin kt vi nhng ngi s dng kt ni vi h thng. Mng truyn thng ca Trung tm my tnh khu vc nh sau:

Mng truyn thng ca Trung tm my tnh khu vc (Khong cch tnh bng km)
40 50 40 30 40 10 30

138

2
20

3
40 20 30

3.3.2. M t dng ton hc ca bi ton

139

Mt th v hng G (N,A). Mi cung c di cij>0, di ca mi cung chnh l khong cch. tm cy bao trm ti thiu ca th G l tm mt cy Gs (Ns, As) tha mn min cij, (i,j) As, As A. Vy, bi ton cy bao trm ti thiu l bi ton tm tp cc cung lin thng tt c cc nt vi tng khong cch trn cung nh nht.

3.3.3. Thut ton cy bao trm ti thiu

140

T tng ca thut ton l xem xt cc nt v a tng nt vo tp cc nt Ns. Thut ton cy bao trm ti thiu gm cc bc sau: Gi NC l tp cc nt c chn a vo NS v NU l tp cc nt cn li Bc 1: Bt u ti mt nt i bt k. Nt i NC. Xt cc cung (i,k) vi kNU. Chn cung nh nht, gi s cij=min(cik), b sung nt j vo NC. Cung (i,j) As. Loi nt j khi NU.

3.3.3. Thut ton cy bao trm ti thiu

141

Bc 2: Xt tt c cc cung ni t tp NC n NU. Gi s cung (m,k) vi m NC v kNU c gi tr cung nh nht. Do , cung (m,k) s thuc cy bao trm ti thiu. Nu c hai hoc nhiu cung c gi tr cung u nh bng nhau th ty chn 1 cung. iu chnh li tp hp NC v NU bng cch b sung nt k v NC v loi nt k ra khi NU Lp li bc 2 cho n khi NC=N v NU=.

ng dng thut ton Bc 1:

142

Mt cch ty , bt u ti nt 1, NC={1}, xt cc cung c ni vi nt 1, cung (1,2) vi khong cch bng 20 km l nh nht. Vy, cung (1,2) thuc cy bao trm ti thiu. iu chnh: NC = {1,2}, tp Nu = {3,4,5,6}

2
20 50

40 30 40 10

3
40 30 20

30 40

Bc 2
143

Xt tt c cc cung ni cc nt t tp NC n NU. Cung (1,4) vi khong cch 30 km l nh nht. Vy, cung (1,4) thuc cy bao trm ti thiu. iu chnh: Tp NC = {1,2,4} v tp NU = {3,5,6}.

2
20 50

40 30 40 10

3
40 30 20

30 40

Lp li bc 2:
144

Cung (4,3) khong cch 10km l nh Vy, cung thuc cy bao ti thiu

vi bng nht. (4,3) trm

2
20 50

40 30 40 10

3
40 30 20

iu chnh: Tp NC = {1,2,3,4} v tp NU = {5,6}.

30 40

Lp li bc 2:
145

Cung (4,6) khong cch 20km l nh Vy, cung thuc cy bao ti thiu

vi bng nht. (4,6) trm

2
20 50

40 30 40 10

3
40 30 20

iu chnh: Tp NC = {1,2,3,4,6} v tp NU = {5}.

30 40

Lp li bc 2:
146

Cung (3,5) khong cch 30km l nh Vy, cung thuc cy bao ti thiu

vi bng nht. (3,5) trm

2
20 50

40 30 40 10

3
40 30 20

1
iu chnh: Tp NC = {1,2,3,4,5,6} v tp NU rng

30 40

Mng truyn thng ca Trung tm my tnh khu vc

147

Vy, cy bao trm ti thiu gm cc cung (1,2), (1,4), (4,3), (4,6) v (3,5) vi tng khong cch bng 110 km. 5 40

20

50 40 10 30 40

30

3
40 30 20

3.4. Bi ton dng cc i (Maximum flow problem)

148

3.4.1 t vn 3.4.2. M t dng ton hc ca bi ton 3.4.3 Thut ton dng cc i

3.4.1. t vn : Mng giao thng

149

Chng ta cng xem xt h thng ng cao tc lin tnh Bc Nam i qua Thnh ph A. Dng phng tin di chuyn Bc Nam t mc 1500 phng tin/gi vo thi gian cao im. thc hin chng trnh duy tu bo dng ng cao tc vo ma h, theo cn thit phi tm thi ng mt s ln xe v gii hn tc thp hn. Cc tuyn ng thay th ty chn bao gm cc ng cao tc khc v cc ng ni th. Do s khc bit v gii hn tc v m hnh giao thng, ti nng trn dng s khc nhau, ph thuc vo cc con ng ni th v tuyn ng s dng. Mng giao thng xut vi ti nng trn dng ca mi cung c gii thiu Slide sau

3.4.1. Mng giao thng

150

0 5 1 6 5

3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 4 7

0 0

8 1 1 0 6 0

7 0

3.4.1. t vn
151

Xem xt mt mng c mt nt ngun (nt cung) v mt nt ht (nt cu). Bi ton dng cc i a ra vn : Lng dng cc i nh phng tin vn ti, d liu, cht lng, c th i vo v i ra mng ny trong mt thi gian nht nh. Lng dng ph thuc vo rng buc ti nng trn tt c cc cung ca mng. l gii hn ti a hay gii hn ti nng trn dng ca mi cung. K thut dng cc i cho php chng ta xc nh lng ti a c th di chuyn qua mt mng.

3.4.2. M t dng ton hc ca bi ton

152

Mt th c hng G (N,A) c ti nng ti a trn cc cung l uij , (i,j)A, c th bng +. Dng thc t trn cc cung l xij, 0 xij uij, (i,j)A. Gi s so v si l hai nt c bit, gi tng ng l nt ngun v nt ht. Bi ton dng cc i l i tm xij tha mn max xi,si, iN. Chnh v vy, bi ton dng cc i l bi ton i tm dng thc t trn cung sao cho tng dng i vo nt ht l cc i.

3.4.3. Thut ton dng cc i

153

Bc 1: Tm bt k mt ng i t nt ngun n nt ht c cc ti nng trn dng ln hn 0 i vi tt c cc cung theo ng i. Nu khng c ng i no nh vy, phng n ti u t c. Bc 2: Tm ti nng nh nht ca cung theo ng i la chn theo bc 1: Pf. Bc 3: i vi ng i la chn bc 1, gim ti nng dng trn tt c cung theo hng i bng mt lng Pf v tng ti nng dng trn tt c cung theo hng i ngc bng mt lng Pf. Quay li bc 1. Bc 4: So snh ti nng cui v u tin xc nh dng di chuyn v lp m hnh mng cui cng.

V d: Mng giao thng

154

0 5 1 6 5

3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 4 7

0 0

8 1 1 0 6 0

7 0

Bc 1: ng 1-4-6-7
155

7 0 7

1 5 0 0 5

Bc 2: Tm ti nng nh trn ng 1-46-7: pf=5

156

Pf=5 7 6

0 0 4 5

Bc 3: iu chnh dng trn ng 14-6-7

157

Gim 5

Tng 5

5 2

0 0 4

Bc lp ln 1: 1-2-5-7: pf=3
158

0 5 1 6 0

3 2 2 3 3 3 0 5 4 7

0 0

8 1 1 0 6 5

7 5

Bc lp ln 2: 1-3-5-7: pf=3
159

3 2 1 6 0

0 2 2 3 3 3 0 5 4 7

3 0

5 1 1 0 6 5

7 5

Bc lp ln 2: 1-3-6-7: pf=2
160

3 2 1 3 0

0 2 2 0 3 3 0 5 4 7

3 3

2 1 1 0 6 5

7 5

Bc lp ln 3: 1-3-6-5-7: pf=1
161

3 2 1 1 0

0 2 2 0 3 3 0 5 4 5

3 3

2 1 1 2 6 5

7 7

Bc lp ln 4: Khng tn ti ng no
162

3 2 1 0 0

0 2 2 0 3 3 0 5 4 4

3 3

1 2 0 3 6 5

7 7

Ti u

Bc 4: Xc nh dng ti nng cui cng trn mi cung

163
0 5 1 5 6 0 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 0 0 4 5 7 0 0 0 0 5 8 1 1 6 0 7 0

3 2 1 0 0

0 2 2 0 3 3 0 5 4 4

3 3

1 2 0 3 6 5

7 7

Kt qu cui cng
164

2 3 1 6

3 3 3 3

5 1

7 7

6 5

5 4

CHNG 4

IU HNH D N BNG PERT/CPM

Kt thc chng ny, sinh vin c th: 1. Nm c cc bc c bn ca cng vic lp s PERT 2. iu hnh cc d n c thi gian hot ng xc nh v ngu nhin 3. Tho hip thi gian-chi ph trong cc d n

4.1. Khi nim v cng dng s PERT/CPM

166

CPM (Critical Path Method) l phng php ng gng c Henry L.Gantt pht trin di dng biu Gantt nh mt cng c h tr cho cng vic iu hnh d n t nm 1918. PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique): K thut xem xt v nh gi d n v c s dng vo cui thp nin 1950. Mc du PERT v CPM c hnh thnh c lp nhng c chung mc ch v s dng cc thut ng ging nhau. Ngy nay, ngi ta kt hp cc im mnh ca mi k thut nhm to ra mt k thut iu hnh d n c gi tr. Vy, PERT/CPM l g v ng dng n trong thc t nh th no?

4.1.1. Mt s khi nim

167

PERT l mt th c hng G(N,A) lin thng, khng c chu trnh v c nt bt u v nt kt thc. D n (project) l mt tp hp cc hot ng (cng vic) lin quan vi nhau v phi thc hin theo mt trt t cho n khi hon thnh ton b d n. Hot ng c hiu nh l mt cng vic i hi thi gian v ngun lc hon thnh. Hot ng ngay trc l nhng hot ng phi c hon thnh bt u cc hot ng khc.

4.1.2. Cng dng ca s PERT/CPM

168

PERT/CPM cung cp cc thng tin sau: Thi gian hon thnh d n mong mun; Kh nng hon thnh trc ngy ch nh; Nhng hot ng gng c th nh hng trc tip n thi gian hon thnh; Nhng hot ng c thi gian d tr v c th thm ngun lc cho nhng hot ng gng; Ngy bt u v kt thc d n. PERT/CPM c s dng xy dng, iu hnh thc hin v kim tra nhiu d n khc nhau, nh: Nghin cu v pht trin sn phm hay qui trnh mi; Xy dng cc nh my, cng trnh v ng x; Bo dng cc thit b ln v phc tp; Thit k v lp t cc h thng mi;

4.2. iu hnh d n vi thi gian hot ng xc nh

169

4.2.1. Cc bc v s PERT/CPM 4.2.2. Cc nguyn tc thit lp PERT/CPM 4.2.3 Gii bng my tnh

4.2.1. Cc bc v s PERT
170

Bc 1: Xc nh cc hot ng ca d n v d kin thi gian hon thnh chng; Bc 2: Thit lp mng d n nhm m t cc hot ng v cc hot ng ngay trc ca cc hot ng nh nu trong bc 1; Bc 3: Tnh thi im khi cng sm (ES: Earliest Start ) v hon thnh sm (EF: Earliest Finish) cho mi hot ng; Bc 4: Tnh thi im hon thnh mun (LF: Latest Finish) v thi im khi cng mun (LS: Latest Start); Bc 5: Tnh thi gian d tr (Slack) cho mi hot ng, hot ng gng v ng gng (critical path); Bc 6: Hnh thnh bng lch trnh hot ng.

D n m rng trung tm
171

Ch mt trung tm mua sm lp k hoch hin i ha v m rng mt t hp trung tm mua sm hin ti. D n ny d nh cung cp mt bng kinh doanh cho 8-10 doanh nghip mi. Ngun ti chnh c thu xp qua mt nh u t t nhn. Tt c cng vic cn li i vi ng ch trung tm ny l t k hoch, iu hnh thc hin v kim tra d n m rng. S dng Pert iu hnh d n m rng trung tm, gm cc bc nh sau:

Bc 1: Xc nh cc hot ng ca d n v d kin thi gian hon thnh chng

172

Xc nh tt c cc hot ng ca c d n; Xc nh mi quan h lin kt gia cc hot ng, tc quan h trnh t thc hin chng; D kin thi gian hon thnh mi hot ng. Xc nh cc hot ng ngay trc. i vi d n m rng trung tm, gm cc hot ng, quan h trnh t, hot ng ngay trc v thi gian hon thnh ca tng hot ng nh slide sau:

Danh mc cc hot ng ca d n
173 Hot ng A B C D E F G H I M t hot ng Chun b bn v thit k Xc nh ngi thu tim nng Lm t qung co cho ngi thu La chn nh thu Chun b th tc xy dng Ph duyt, k hp ng vi nh thu Thc hin vic xy dng K hp ng vi ngi thu Ngi thu chuyn vo Tng Hot ng ngay trc A A A E D,F B,C G,H Thi gian (tun) 5 6 4 3 1 4 14 12 2 51

Bc 2 : Thit lp mng d n
174

Mc tiu: M t bng biu cc hot ng v cc hot ng ngay trc ca d n. Mng d n bao gm cc nt v cc cung. Mi cung biu th mt hot ng (Activity On Arc:AOA) v mi nt biu din quan h trnh t. Hay: Mi nt c th biu th mt hot ng (Activity On Node: AON) v mi cung biu din quan h trnh t. Ni nt thng c k hiu bng ng trn hay hnh ch nht. Trn mi nt (ngoi tr nt Start v Finish) thng gm c cc thng tin nh slide sau:

Cc thng tin trn mi nt Thi im khi cng sm (ES)

175

Thi im hon thnh sm (EF)

K hiu hot ng

Thi gian hon thnh hot ng (t) Thi im khi cng mun (LS)

Thi im hon thnh mun (LF)

Mng d n m rng trung tm mua sm

176 E 1 A 5 D 3 C 4 B 6 H 12 F 4 G 14 I 2

Start

Finish

Bc 3: Tnh ES v EF cho mi hot ng

177

Theo hng tin, tnh ES v EF cho tng hot ng theo cc qui tc: Thi im hon thnh sm: EF=ES+t Thi im khi cng sm: Thi im khi cng sm ca mt hot ng bng gi tr ln nht trong cc thi im hon thnh sm ca tt c cc hot ng ngay trc n. Cng thc tnh: ESj = Max{EFi} mi i < j Ch : Bt c hot ng no, nu ch c mt hot ng ngay trc n u c thi im khi cng sm bng thi im hon thnh sm ca hot ng ngay trc n.

Mng d n c ES v EF
178 E 5 1 A 0 5 5 D 3 C 4 5 9 H 9 12 5 8 6 F 6 4 G 10 24 14 21 I 24 26 2 10

Start

Finish

B 0 6

Bc 4: Tnh LF v LS
179

Theo hng li, tnh LF v LS cho tng hot ng theo cc qui tc: Thi im hon thnh mun ca hot ng cui cng bng thi im hon thnh sm d n. Thi im khi cng mun: LS=LF-t. Thi im hon thnh mun ca mt hot ng bng gi tr nh nht trong cc thi im khi cng mun ca tt c cc hot ng ngay sau n, cng thc tnh: LFi = Min{LSj} mi j>i

Mng d n c LS v LF
180 E 5 1 5 A 0 5 0 5 5 D 5 3 C 4 B 0 6 6 6 12 6 6 8 F 6 4 6 10 10 G 10 24 14 10 24 H 9 21 I 24 26 2 24 26

7 10 5 9

Start

8 12

12 12 24

Finish

Bc 5: Tnh thi gian d tr cho mi hot ng, hot ng gng v ng gng

181

Thi gian d tr ca mt hot ng l thi gian mt hot ng c th chm tr m khng lm tng thi gian hon thnh ca d n. Thi gian d tr ca mt hot ng c tnh theo cng thc sau: Slack=LS-ES=LF-EF Hot ng gng l hot ng c thi gian d tr bng 0. V d: hot ng A, E, F, G, I. ng gng l ng i bao gm cc hot ng gng. V d: A-E-F-G-I.

Bc 6: Hnh thnh bng lch trnh hot ng

182 Hot ng A B C D E F G H I ES 0 0 5 5 5 6 10 9 24 LS 0 6 8 7 5 6 10 12 24 EF 5 6 9 8 6 10 24 21 26 LF 5 12 12 10 6 10 24 24 26 Slack 0 6 3 2 0 0 0 3 0 C C C C ng gng C

4.2.2. Cc nguyn tc thit lp PERT/CPM

183

Nguyn tc v: mi hot ng ng vi mt nt. Ngoi ra, cn b sung nt bt u (Start) v nt kt thc (Finish) Nguyn tc nh s th t: Cc nt phi c nh s th t t tri sang phi, t trn xung di. Nguyn tc gp v tch vic Nhng hot ng cng tnh cht v c thc hin trong cng mt thi gian th c th gp li (nu cn) thnh mt hot ng. Nu mt s hot ng khng nht thit khi cng sau khi hon thnh ton b hot ng A m phi khi cng khi A xong tng phn th cn phi tch vic A.

4.3. iu hnh d n vi thi gian hot ng c tnh ngu nhin

184

4.3.1. Dn nhp 4.3.2. Thi gian hot ng c tnh ngu nhin 4.3.3. Xc nh ng gng 4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

4.3.1. Dn nhp
185

i vi d n lp i lp li, da vo d liu qu kh v kinh nghim, chng ta c th c tnh chnh xc thi gian hon thnh ca mi hot ng. Tuy nhin, i vi cc d n mi hay c nht, c tnh thi gian hon thnh ca mi hot ng c phn kh khn. Trong nhng tnh hung ny, thi gian hon thnh ca mi hot ng c tnh ngu nhin v n c xem xt nh cc bin ngu nhin vi phn phi xc sut nht nh iu hnh nhng d n ny, ngoi vic bit cc hot ng, hot ng ngay trc, trt t cc hot ng, cn bit lut phn phi xc sut v cc tham s c trng phn phi ca thi gian hot ng.

D n my ht bi Port -Vac
186

Cng ty Daugherty sn xut h thng ht bi cng nghip trong nhiu nm. Gn y, mt thnh vin trong nhm nghin cu sn phm trnh mt bo co xut cng ty xem xt vic sn xut my ht bi khng dy. Sn phm mi Porta-Vac, c th ng gp vo vic m rng kinh doanh trong th trng h gia nh. B phn qun tr hy vng rng n c th sn xut vi mc chi ph hp l v s tin li nh vo kh nng d xch theo v khng dy. B phn qun tr mun nghin cu tnh kh thi ca vic sn xut Porta-Vac. Nhm hon thnh vic nghin cu, cng ty phi thu thp thng tin t cc b phn R&D, th nghim sn phm, sn xut, d tr chi ph v nghin cu th trng.

Xc nh cc hot ng v cc hot ng ngay trc

187 Hot ng A B C D E F G H I J M t Pht trin thit k sn phm K hoch nghin cu th trng Chun b qui trnh (thit k ch to) Hnh thnh m hnh nguyn mu Chun b brochure tip th Chun b d tr chi ph Th nghim sn phm s b Hon thnh iu tra th trng Chun b bo co nh gi v d bo Chun b bo co cui cng Hot ng ngay trc A A A C D B, E H F, G, I

4.3.2. Thi gian hot ng c tnh ngu nhin

188

Khi c mng d n cn tnh thi gian hon thnh mi hot ng. Khi thi gian hot ng c yu t ngu nhin, cn c tnh 3 thi gian: lc quan, hp l nht v bi quan. Phng php iu hnh d n c tnh ngu nhin l phng php PERT ba c lng (PERT three estimate method). Phng php ny s dng 3 loi thi gian c lng: Thi gian lc quan a (Optimistic time) Thi gian hp l nht m (Most probable time) Thi gian bi quan b (Pessimistic time)

Cc loi thi gian hot ng c tnh ngu nhin

189

Thi gian lc quan (a) l thi gian hon thnh hot ng ti thiu nu mi vic tin trin rt l tng. y chnh l thi gian cn hon thnh hot ng trong iu kin thun li nht. Trn th phn phi xc sut, thi gian ny nm cn di. Thi gian hp l nht (m) l thi gian hon thnh hot ng c kh nng xy ra nht trong iu kin thng thng. y chnh l thi gian c xc sut ln nht, nm nh cao nht trong th phn phi xc sut. Thi gian bi quan (b) l thi gian hon thnh hot ng ti a trong iu kin kh khn nht. Thi gian ny nm cn trn trong th phn phi xc sut.

 th thi gian hot ng c tnh ngu nhin

190
Thi gian hp l nht Thi gian trung bnh (t)

Thi gian lc quan

Thi gian bi quan

Thi gian hot ng

Thi gian hot ng ca d n Port-Vac

191 Hot ng A B C D E F G H I J Thi gian lc quan (a) 4 1 2 3 2 1,5 1,5 2,5 1,5 1 Thi gian hp l nht (m) 5 1,5 3 4 3 2 3 3,5 2 2 Thi gian bi quan (b) 12 5 4 11 4 2,5 4,5 7,5 2,5 3

K vng v phng sai ca thi gian hot ng

192

T cc loi thi gian khc nhau ca mi loi hot ng cn tnh th gian hon thnh k vng ca mi hot ng Thi gian k vng (t) ca mi hot ng l bnh qun gia quyn theo cng thc sau:

Phng sai ca thi gian hon thnh mi hot ng c tnh da vo cng thc sau:

a + 4m + b t = [2m + (a + b) )] = 6
1 3 1 2

ba = 6
2

K vng v phng sai thi gian hot ng ca d n Porta-Vac

193

Hot ng A B C D E F G H I J

Thi gian k vng 6 2 3 5 3 2 3 4 2 2

Phng sai 1,78 0,44 0,11 1,78 0,11 0,03 0,25 0,69 0,03 0,11

Mng d n Porta-Vac vi thi gian c tnh ngu nhin

194 C 3 A 6 D 5 E 3 B 2 F 2 G 3 H 4 I 2 J 2

Finish

Start

Ch
195

Khi thi gian hon thnh hot ng c tnh ngu nhin, vic tnh ton ng gng ch xc nh c thi gian k vng (thi gian trung bnh) hon thnh d n. Thi gian thc t hon thnh d n c th khc. Cc hot ng c phng sai cng ln chng t mt mc khng n nh cng cao. Ngi qun tr d n nn gim st tin ca bt k hot ng c phng sai ln ngay c thi gian k vng khng xc nh c hot ng l hot ng gng.

4.3.3. Xc nh ng gng
196

Da vo thi gian hot ng k vng, tin hnh cc tnh ton ng gng nhm xc nh thi gian k vng hon thnh d n v xy dng lch trnh hot ng. Xem xt thi gian hot ng k vng nh mt khong thi hn c nh bit ca mi hot ng. S dng qui trnh ng gng theo phng php PERT/CPM tm ng gng cho d n Porta-Vac. Da vo cc hot ng gng v thi gian k vng hon thnh d n, phn tch tc ng ca s thay i thi gian hot ng.

4.3.3. Xc nh ng gng
197

Theo hng tin ca s mng, tnh ton thi im khi cng sm (ES) v thi im hon thnh sm (EF)
C 6 3 A 0 6 Start 6 D 6 11 5 E 6 9 3 B 0 2 2 9 F 9 11 2 G 11 14 3 H 9 13 4 J 15 17 2 I 13 15 2 Finish

4.3.3. Xc nh ng gng
198

Theo hng li, tnh ton c LS v LF

C 6 9 F 9 11 2 13 15 G 11 14 3 12 15 H 9 13 4 9 13 J 15 17 2 15 17 I 13 15 2 13 15

3 10 13 A 0 6 0 6 6 D 6 11 5 7 12

Finish

Start

E 6 9 3 B 0 2 7 2 9 6 9

Lch trnh hot ng ca d n

199 Hot ng A B C D E F G H I J ES 0 0 6 6 6 9 11 9 13 15 LS 0 7 10 7 6 13 12 9 13 15 EF 6 2 9 11 9 11 14 13 15 17 LF 6 9 13 12 9 15 15 13 15 17 Slack 0 7 4 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 C C C C ng gng C

4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

200

S thay i thi gian hon thnh ca cc hot ng gng s thay i thi gian hon thnh ton b d n. S thay i thi gian hon thnh ca cc hot ng khng gng thng khng c tc ng n thi gian hon thnh d n. Tuy nhin, nu c mt hot ng khng gng b tr hon va vt qu thi gian d tr th hot ng ny c th tr thnh hot ng gng v thnh mt nt trong ng gng mi v nh hng n thi gian hon thnh d n.

4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

201

Gi T l tng thi gian cn c hon thnh d n. Gi tr k vng ca T bng tng gi tr thi gian k vng ca cc hot ng gng: E(T)= tA+tE+tH+tI+tj=6+3+4+2+2=17 Phng sai v thi gian hon thnh d n bng tng phng sai v thi gian cc hot ng trn ng gng: 2=2A+2E+2H+2I+2J=1,78+0,11+0,69+0,03+0,11=2,72 lch chun v thi gian hon thnh d n: =1,65

4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

202

Gi thit rng thi gian hon thnh d n (T) tun th theo phn phi chun vi k vng E(T) v phng sai 2

=1,65

Thi gian hon thnh k vng

T
Thi gian

4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

203

Bng phn phi ny, c th tnh ton xc sut tha mn mt thi hn hon thnh d n nht nh. V d, b phn qun tr dnh cho d n Porta-Vac thi gian 20 tun. S dng phn phi xc sut chun, chng ta ang xc nh xc sut T = 20. Gi tr z ca phn phi xc sut chun ti T=20 l
z= 20 17 = 1,82 1,65

Tra bng phn phi chun vi gi tr z, xc nh c xc sut d n hon thnh trong thi hn 20 tun l 0,4656 + 0,5 = 0,9656.

4.3.4. S thay i thi gian hon thnh d n

204 S thay i thi gian hot ng c th lm cho d n ko di qu 17 tun nhng gn nh chc chn l d n s hon thnh trc thi hn 20 tun Xc sut ca thi hn hon thnh d n trc 20 tun (V P(T20)=0,9656)

=1,65
P(T20)

T=20
Z=(20-17)/1,65 =1,82

17 Thi gian

4.4. Tho hip thi gian-chi ph

205

Trong mt s trng hp cn phi rt ngn thi gian hot thnh d n. Trong nhng trng hp ny, ch c th thc hin rt ngn thi gian hot ng cn phi tng chi ph. Thc t, cc nh qun tr phi ra quyt nh v chp nhn chi ph tng thm c c thi gian hot ng rt ngn nh mt tha hip. Vic rt ngn thi gian hot ng c coi nh l tha hip thi gian - chi ph. Vn t ra tho hip nhng hot ng no v nh th no c hiu qu nht?

4.4.1. D n bo dng hai c my

206 Nghin cu d n bo dng hai c my gm c 5 hot ng. V l hot ng thng xuyn nn b phn qun tr c kinh nghim trong vic c tnh thi gian. Do vy, mi hot ng ch c mt thi gian c tnh Danh mc cc hot ng ca d n bo dng

Hot ng A B C D E

M t Kim tra li my I iu chnh my I Kim tra li my II iu chnh my II Kim tra ton h thng

Hot ng ngay trc A C B, D

Thi gian k vng (ngy) 7 3 6 3 2

Mng d n bo dng hai c my

207

A 0 7

B 7 10 3 E 10 12 2

Start

Finish

C 0 6 6

D6 9 3

Lch trnh hot ng ca d n

208

ng gng c xc nh l ng i (A-B-E), tng thi gian hon thnh d n l 12 ngy. Lch trnh hot ng ca d n bo dng hai c my Hot ng ES LS EF A B C D E 0 7 0 6 10 0 7 1 7 10 7 10 6 9 12 LF Slack 7 10 7 10 12 0 0 1 1 0 C ng gng C C

4.4.2. Tho hip thi gian - chi ph

209

Gi s cn hon thnh d n bo dng trong 10 ngy. rt ngn thi gian hon thnh d n theo mong mun cn rt ngn thi gian hon thnh ca mt s hot ng chn lc. rt ngn thi gian hon thnh ca mi hot ng hot ng ca c cc ngun lc b sung thng dn n chi ph d n gia tng. Xc nh cc hot ng i hi t chi ph nht tha hip v ch tha hip nhng hot ng ch bng khong thi gian cn thit p ng thi gian hon thnh d n theo mong mun.

4.4.2. Tho hip thi gian - chi ph

210 Nhm tho hip thi gian hot ng, cn c cc thng tin: Thi gian hon thnh ca mi hot ng theo cc iu kin khc nhau:

ti: : thi gian bnh thng ca hot ng i. ti : thi gian theo tha hip cao nht ca hot ng i .

Mi : mc rt gim thi gian ti a c th ca hot ng i theo tha hip: Mi=ti-ti Chi ph cho mi hot ng theo thi gian khc nhau:

Ci: Chi ph ca hot ng i theo thi gian hot ng bnh thng Ci: Chi ph ca hot ng i theo tha hip cao nht
Chi ph tha hip Ki ca mi hot ng theo n v thi gian:

C i' C i Ki = Mi

4.4.2. Tho hip thi gian - chi ph

211

D liu v hot ng bnh thng v tho hip ca d n bo dng 2 c my Hot ng A B C D E Thi gian (ngy) Bnh Tho thng hip 7 4 3 2 6 4 3 2 1 1 Tng chi ph ($) Bnh Tho hip thng 500 800 200 350 500 900 200 300 1700 500 550 3100 Mi 3 1 2 2 1 Ki 100 150 200 150 250

4.4.2. Tho hip thi gian - chi ph

212

rt ngn thi gian hot ng cn ch cc hot ng gng (A,B,E) rt ngn thi gian vi chi ph tho hip thp nht cn xem xt cc hot ng c Ki nh v thi gian ti a c th tho hip. Vy, rt ngn thi gian hon thnh d n 2 ngy cn tng chi ph cho hot ng gng A. Khi chi ph tng thm s l 2x100=200$ Rt ngn thi gian hot ng D: 1 ngy 150$ Tng chi ph cho hon thnh ton b d n s l 1700+350=20500$

Chng 5

M HNH HNG CH

5.1. Dng bi ton thng gp trong kinh t v phng hng gii quyt
214

Trong sinh hot v cc hot ng sn xut thng gp nhiu h thng mang c trng m ng: Nh ga; Bn xe; Trm bn xng; Cc ca hng; Cc khch sn C th m t cc h thng ny thnh nhng bi ton v tm phng hng gii quyt ?

5.1.1. Bi ton
215

Trong h thng phc v thng din ra 2 qu trnh:

Qu trnh ny sinh cc yu cu Qu trnh phc v cc yu cu.

Hai tnh trng:

Kh nng phc v khng p ng yu cu Kh nng phc v ca h thng vt qu yu cu

C hai tnh trng trn u gy nn thit hi v mt kinh t

Mt bi ton t ra l phn tch bn cht ca cc qu trnh din ra trong h thng v thit lp mi quan h v lng gia cc t trng ca cc qu trnh y tnh ton, phn tch v a ra quyt nh nhm iu khin h thng hot ng c hiu qu.

5.1.2. Phng hng chung gii bi ton

216

ng li chung ca phng php gii gm cc bc: Bc 1: Phn tch h thng m ch yu l phn tch tnh cht ca dng vo v cc trng thi ca h thng; Bc 2: Thit lp h phng trnh trng thi gii ra cc xc sut trng thi; Bc 3: Gii h phng trnh tm ra cc xc sut trng thi; Bc 4: Tnh ton, phn tch cc ch tiu, trn c s a ra nhn xt v kt lun.

5.2. Cc khi nim c bn

217 Cc Thnh phn c bn

Dng vo

Hng ch

Knh

Dng ra

Nguyn tc phc v

Dng vo

Dng ra

Dng yu cu n h thng (dng vo)

218

Dng yu cu n h thng l dng cc i tng i n h thng v i hi h thng phc v. V d: Dng xe n trm xng mua xng Dng khch n nh hng c phc v Dng tu n cng bc d hng ho Dng yu cu n h thng l dng bin c ngu nhin v tun theo nhng phn phi xc sut nht nh, nh phn phi Poisson, phn phi Erlang, phn phi u. Trong kinh t, cc dng vo thng tun theo phn phi Poisson.

Dng Poisson c 3 tnh cht sau

219

Khng hu qu n nht Dng ea a k Nu dng vo l dng ti gin th:p k () =

k!

Trong :

Pk(t): Xc sut trong khong thi gian t c k yu cu xut hin K: s yu cu xut hin trong khong thi gian quan st t a: s yu cu trung bnh xut hin trong tng khong thi gian quan st .

Hng ch
220

L tp hp cc yu cu sp xp theo mt trt t no ch c phc v. V d: hng ngi ch mua v, hng ngi ch cng chng Tuy nhin, trong thc t cng c nhng h thng khng c hng ch V d: Khch sn, trm in thoi t ng...

gc h n

Knh phc v
221

Knh phc v l nhng thit b k thut, con ngi hoc t hp cc thit b k thut v con ngi m h thng dng phc v cc yu cu n h thng. Mt c trng quan trng nht ca cc knh phc v l thi gian phc v, l thi gian t nht mi knh phi tiu hao phc v xong mt yu cu. N l mt i lng ngu nhin tun theo mt qui lut phn phi xc sut nht nh trong qui lut phn phi m l ph bin nht.

Dng ra
222

L dng cc yu cu i ra khi h thng bao gm cc yu cu c phc v v cc yu cu b t chi.

Dng vo

Dng ra

Ch Nu h thng nhiu pha th dng ra ca pha ny s tr thnh dng vo ca pha khc

Nguyn tc phc v ca h thng

223

l cch thc nhn cc yu cu vo cc knh phc v. Ni dung nguyn tc phc v: Trng hp no th cc yu cu c nhn vo phc v; Cch thc phn b cc yu cu vo cc knh nh th no; Trng hp no yu cu b t chi hoc phi ch v gii hn cho php ca hng ch hoc gii hn ca thi gian ch. Ch Thng xt nguyn tc phc v: n trc phc v trc

5.3. Cc iu kin cn thit gii bi ton

224

Mi bi ton c c th ring, dng vo, dng ra, thi gian phc v tun theo cc phn phi khc nhau. Chnh v vy, khng c cng thc tnh chung cho mi bi ton m phi c phng hng gii quyt ring. Vn t ra: Tm nhng iu kin ring, gi thit ring thit lp h cng thc ring cho tng bi ton. C th nh gi nhng gi thit trong iu kin c th bng nhng tiu chun no?

5.3.1. Cc iu kin cn thit gii bi ton

225

iu kin 1: dng vo h thng phi l dng ti gin hoc xp x ti gin. iu kin 2: khong thi gian (T) gia 2 ln xut hin lin tip cc yu cu l i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut hm s m. Nh vy:

Hm mt xc sut c dng f(t) = .e-t Hm phn phi xc sut c dng F(t) =1-e-t Vi l cng dng vo.
iu kin 3: Thi gian phc v ca cc knh cng l i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut hm s m. Nh vy:

Hm mt xc sut c dng (t) = .e-t Hm phn phi xc sut c dng (t) = 1 - e-t Vi l nng sut phc v ca cc knh.

5.3.2. Kim nh dng vo bng tiu chun 2

226

Bc 1: Xy dng cp gi thuyt:

H0: dng vo l dng Poisson H1: dng vo khng phi l dng Poisson
Bc 2: Phn khong thi gian d nh quan st dng yu cu n h thng thnh n khong thi gian nh bng nhau (n50) sau tin hnh quan st s yu cu xut hin trong tng khong thi gian nh y. S liu thu c trnh by nh sau:
S yu cu xut hin trong tng khong thi x gian nh (xi) 1 S khong thi gian c s yu cu xut hin n tng ng (ni) 1 x2 n2 x3 n3 ... ... xm nm

5.3.2. Kim nh
227

Tnh gi tr quan st ca i lng ngu nhin 2 theo cng thc: m (n i n ) 2 2 i

qs =
i =1

n i

Trong : ni l tn s l thuyt tnh theo cng thc ni = n.pxi, vi pxi xc sut xut hin xi yu cu c tnh theo cng thc Poisson pxi = e-aaxi/xi!, vi a l s yu cu trung bnh xut hin trong khong thi gian quan st, a=xini/ni m l s cc gi tr quan st c iu chnh theo yu cu cc ni 5.

5.3.2. Kim nh
228

Bc 3: Cho mc ngha , s dng bng phn b 2 vi mc ngha v bc t do (m-2), chng ta c 2(,m-2) Bc 4: So snh gi tr quan st 2qs v gi tr 2(,m-2). Nu 2qs > 2(,m-2). Kt lun: Bc b H0 tc dng yu cu n h thng khng phi l dng Poisson vi mc ngha Nu 2qs <2(,m-2) Kt lun: Dng yu cu n h thng l dng Poisson vi mc ngha .

5.4. Qui tc thit lp h phng trnh trng thi

229

Trong qu trnh hot ng, trng thi ca h thng lun thay i. Chnh v vy: Cn phi m t qu trnh thay i ny bng s ; Hnh thnh qui tc thit lp h phng trnh trng thi; Tnh ton cc xc sut trng thi.

5.4.1. Qu trnh thay i trng thi v s trng thi

230

Qu trnh thay i trng thi ca h thng l qu trnh thay i s knh bn hay s yu cu c trong h thng. Cc trng thi ca qu trnh c k hiu Xk (vi k= 0,,n). Qu trnh thay i trng thi ca h thng c th c th hin bng mt s gi l s trng thi. S trng thi ca mt h thng phc v gm cc hnh ch nht tng trng cho cc trng thi c th c ca h thng v cc mi tn ni cc hnh ch nht tng trng cho cc qu trnh chuyn t trng thi ny sang trng thi khc ca h thng. Trn cc mi tn c ghi cng ca dng yu cu tc ng lm thay i cc trng thi ca h thng.

V d:
231 Mt ca hng c 2 nhn vin bn hng. Nu xt qu trnh thay i trng thi ca ca hng l qu trnh thay i s nhn vin bn, ca hng c 3 trng thi: X0 l trng thi ca hng c hai nhn vin ri, X1 l trng thi ca hng c 1 nhn vin bn, X2 l trng thi ca hng c 2 nhn vin bn. S trng thi ca ca hng:

01(t) X0 10(t) X1

12(t) X2 21(t)

Trong : 01(t), 12(t): L cng dng khch hng vo ca hng. 10(t), 21(t): L cng phc v ca ca hng.

5.4.2. Qui tc thit lp h phng trnh trng thi

232 Qui tc o hm bc nht theo thi gian ca cc xc sut trng thi bng tng i s ca tch gia cng dng hng theo mi tn v xc sut trng thi m mi tn xut pht.

Gi Xj v Xk l 2 trng thi lin tip ca h thng v Xk l trng thi ang xt, qui H phng trnh trng thi c nh sau:

Vic chuyn t trng thi Xj sangp (t) = jk(t)pj (t) kj(t)pk (t) k kj jk Xk i lng tch mang du dng n (+). pk (t) = 1 Vic chuyn t trng thi Xk sangk=0 Xj i lng tch mang du m (-).

5.4.3. Qu trnh hy v sinh

233

S trng thi ca qu trnh hy v sinh:

0(t) X0 1(t) X1 2(t) 1(t)

k-1(t) Xk k(t)

k(t)

n-2(t) Xn-1 n-1(t)

n-1(t) Xn n(t)

k+1(t)

Trong : i(t) l cng dng vo h thng; j(t) l cng phc v ca h thng. Cc trng thi u c 4 mi tn lin h tr 2 trng thi bin ch c 2 mi tn.

Ch

5.4.3. Qu trnh hy v sinh

234

H phng trnh trng thi ca qu trnh hy v sinh

p (t) 0 p (t) k n p (t) n pk (t) k=0 = 0 (t).p0 (t) + 1(t).p1(t) = k1(t).pk1(t) k (t).pk (t) k (t).pk (t) + k+1(t).pk+1(t) k = 1, n = n1(t).pn1(t) n (t).pn (t) = 1

H phng trnh trng thi ca qu trnh hy v sinh

235

Vi dng ti gin th k(t) = k, k(t) =k v Pk(t)=Pk, vy:

= 0 p 0 + 1p1 0 0 = k 1p k 1 k p k k p k + k +1p k +1 k = 1, n = n 1p n 1 n p n 0n p k = 1 k =0

Kt qu

p0 =

1 i 1 + k =1 i = 0 i +1
n k 1

i pk = p0 i = 0 i +1
k 1

5.5. Mt s bi ton thng gp trong kinh t

236

Trong kinh t c rt nhiu h thng phc v mang c trng m ng nhng c th khi qut thnh ba dng sau: H thng t chi H thng ch thun nht H thng ch hn ch Mi h thng ny c c trng nh th no v phn tch chng bng nhng ch tiu no?

5.5.1. H thng t chi c in c- lng

237

Trong thc t sinh hot v hot ng sn xut , nhiu h thng thuc h thng t chi ny. Vy, M t h thng ny thnh dng tng qut nh th no? S trng thi v cng thc tnh cc xc sut trng thi ra sao? H thng ch tiu phn tch gm nhng ch tiu g?

a. Bi ton
238

Mt h thng c n knh phc v, nng sut nh nhau v bng . Dng yu cu n h thng l dng ti gin vi cng . Thi gian phc v ca cc knh l i lng ngu nhin tun theo qui lut hm s m vi tham s . H thng phc v theo nguyn tc: mi mt yu cu n h thng nu gp lc trong h thng c t nht mt knh ri th c nhn vo phc v, ngc li, mi knh u bn th b t chi v i ra khi h thng. Hy thit lp h thng ch tiu phn tch nh gi tnh hnh hot ng ca h thng.

b. S trng thi v xc sut trng thi

239

Theo gi thit bi ton, h thng c cc trng thi sau: X0 l trng thi trong h thng khng c yu cu; Xk (k=1,,n) l trng thi h thng c k knh bn. S trng thi nh sau:
Xk k (k+1)

Xn-1 (n-1)

Xn n

X0

X1 2

k pk = p 0 ( = ) k!

1 p0 = n k k! k =0

c. H thng ch tiu phn tch tnh hnh hot ng

240 01. Xc sut trong h thng khng c yu cu (P0)

Phn nh kh nng mi knh u ri, ng thi cho bit t l thi gian mi knh u ri so vi ton b thi gian hot ng ca h thng. 1 p0 = n k Cng thc tnh nh sau: k! k =0
02. Xc sut t chi yu cu (Ptc) Cho bit kh nng mt yu cu n h thng b t chi, ng thi cn cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng b t chi so vi ton b s yu cu n h thng. Cng thc tnh nh sau: n

p tc =

p0 n!

c. H thng ch tiu
241

03. Xc sut phc v yu cu (Pv)

Cho bit kh nng mt yu cu n h thng c nhn vo phc v, ng thi cn cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng c phc v.
Cng thc tnh: Pv = 1- Ptc 04. S trung bnh cc knh bn (Lb) Cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh bn. n Cng thc tnh: L = kp = p
b

k =0

c. H thng ch tiu
242

05. S trung bnh cc knh ri (nr)

Ch tiu ny cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh khng lm vic.
Cng thc tnh: nr=n-Lb 06. H s cc knh bn (Kb) Ch tiu ny cho bit t l s knh ca h thng c huy ng phc v cc yu cu. Cng thc tnh: Kb=Lb/n

c. H thng ch tiu
243

07. H s knh ri (Kr)

Cho bit t l s knh ri so vi ton b s knh ca h thng.

Cng thc tnh: Kr=nr/n 08. Tng chi ph v tn tht (TC) Cho bit ton b chi ph cho cc knh lm vic, cc knh bn v tn tht do cc yu cu b t chi. Cng thc tnh: TC=T(LbCb+nrCr+ptcCtc)
Trong : Cb, Cr l chi ph bnh qun cho mt knh bn, knh ri trong mt n v thi gian; Ctc: tn tht do t chi mt yu cu trong mt n v thi gian.

c. H thng ch tiu
244

09. Doanh thu (D)

Phn nh ton b kt qu thu c do phc v cc yu cu.

Cng thc tnh: D = T. .Pv.d 10. Hiu qu kinh t (E)

Cho bit trong thi gian hot ng sau khi tr chi ph v tn tht, h thng cn thu c mt lng gi tr l bao nhiu.
Cng thc tnh: E = D-TC

V d
245

Mt trm in thoi t ng c kh nng phc v ng thi 6 yu cu m thoi. Trung bnh mt cuc m thoi mt 1.5 pht. Dng yu cu m thoi n trm gi thit l dng ti gin c cng vi 4 yu cu mi pht. Hy xy dng h thng ch tiu dnh gi tnh hnh hot ng ca trm. Gii Trm in thoi c xem nh h thng t chi c in. Cng dng vo l =4yu cu/pht Nng sut phc v l =1/wb =1/1,5 yu cu/pht Nh vy, =/ =6

V d
246

1 1 1 = 0,0041 p0 = n k = 6 k = 6 244,6 k! k! k =0 k =0

n 66 p tc = p0 = 0 , 0041 = 0 , 265 6! n!

Pv=1-ptc=1-0,265=0,735 Lb=pv=6x0,735=4,41 nr=n-Lb=6-4,41=1,59 Kb=Lb/n=4,41/6=0,735 hay 73,5% Kr=100-Kr=26,5%

5.5.2. H thng ch thun nht

247

Trong thc t sinh hot v hot ng sn xut , nhiu h thng thuc h thng ch thun nht ny. Vy, M t h thng ny thnh dng tng qut nh th no? S trng thi v cng thc tnh cc xc sut trng thi ra sao? H thng ch tiu phn tch gm nhng ch tiu g?

a. Bi ton
248

Mt h thng c n knh phc v, nng sut nh nhau v bng . Dng yu cu n h thng l dng ti gin vi cng . Thi gian phc v ca cc knh tun theo qui lut hm s m vi tham s . H thng phc v theo nguyn tc: mi mt yu cu n h thng nu gp lc trong h thng c t nht mt knh ri th c nhn vo phc v. Ngc li nu mi knh u bn th phi xp hng ch cho n khi c t nht 1 knh c gii phng th c nhn vo phc v ti mt knh bt k (thi gian ch v di hng ch khng hn ch). Hy xy dng h thng ch tiu phn tch, nh gi tnh hnh hot ng ca h thng.

b. S trng thi v cc xc sut trng thi

249

Theo gi thit bi ton,h thng c cc trng thi sau: Xk (k=0n) l trng thi h thng c k yu cu (cng chnh l trng thi c k knh bn). Xn +s (s=1,2) l trng thi trong h thng c n yu cu ang c phc v v s yu cu ch. S trng thi:
X0 Xn+1 n

X1 2 Xn+s

Xk k n

Xn-1 (n-1)

Xn n

(k+1) k+1(t)

b. S trng thi v cc xc sut trng thi

250

Cng thc tnh cc xc sut trng thi

k pk = p0 k!

k = 1, n

p n +s
p0 =

n +s = p0 s n!n
1
n

s = 1,2...
< 1 n

k n +1 k! + n!(n ) k =0

c. H thng ch tiu phn tch tnh hnh hot ng

251 01. Xc sut trong h thng khng c yu cu (P0)

Ch tiu phn nh kh nng mi knh ca h thng u ri, ng thi cho bit t l thi gian mi knh u ri so vi ton b thi gian hot ng ca h thng. 1 Cng thc tnh: p0 = n k n +1 k! + n!(n ) k =0
02. Xc sut ch ca cc yu cu (Pw) Ch tiu ny cho bit mt yu cu n h thng phi ch l bao nhiu. ng thi cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng phi ch so vi ton b s yu cu n h thng. n Cng thc tnh: p q = p n +s = p 0 s =0 n!(1 ) n

c. H thng ch tiu
252 03. S trung bnh cc yu cu ch (Lq)

Ch tiu ny cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu yu cu phi ch .
Cng thc tnh:

Lq = pq (n )
04. Thi gian ch trung bnh (Wq) Ch tiu ny cho bit mt yu cu n h thng nu phi ch th trung bnh ch mt bao nhiu thi gian. Cng thc tnh:

wq =

Lq

c. H thng ch tiu
253

05. S trung bnh cc knh bn (Lb)

Ch tiu ny cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh lm vic.
Cng thc tnh: Lb=Pv= 06. S trung bnh cc knh ri (nr) Ch tiu ny cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh khng lm vic. Cng thc tnh: nr =n-Lb

c. H thng ch tiu
254

07. H s cc knh bn (Kb)

Ch tiu ny cho bit t l s knh ca h thng c huy ng phc v cc yu cu.

Cng thc tnh: Kb=Lb/n
08. H

s knh ri (Kr) Ch tiu ny cho bit t l s knh ca h thng khng c huy ng phc v cc yu cu.

Cng thc tnh: Kr=nr/n

c. H thng ch tiu
255

09. Tng chi ph v tn tht (TC)

Ch tiu ny cho bit tng chi ph cho hot ng phc v ca cc knh lm vic, chi ph cho cc knh khng lm vic v tn tht do cc yu cu ch.
Cng thc tnh: TC=T(LbCb+nrCr+LqCq) 10. Doanh thu (D) Ch tiu ny phn nh kt qu thu c ca h thng trong ton b thi gian hot ng. Cng thc tnh: D = T..Pv.d = T..d

c. H thng ch tiu
256

11. Hiu qu kinh t (E)

Ch tiu ny cho bit trong thi gian hot ng sau khi tr chi ph v tn tht, h thng cn thu c mt lng gi tr l bao nhiu.
Cng thc tnh: E = D- TC

d. V d
257

Mt bn cng c 5 cu xp d hng hng. Dng cc tu n cng l dng ti gin, trung bnh trong mt thng c 20 tu cp bn. Th gian bc d xong mt tu l i lng ngu nhin v trung bnh mi tu mt 6 ngy. Hy nh gi tnh hnh phc v ca bn cng v cho bit nn tng s cu bc d ca bn cng ln bao nhiu tng chi ph v tn tht ca bn cng l nh nht. Cho bit:

- Chi ph cho 1 cu xp d hng lm vic l 1 triu ng/thng. - Nu 1 cu xp d khng lm vic trong 1 thng th bn cng s thit hi 1 triu ng. - Chi ph cho mt tu ch 1 triu ng/thng

V d
258

Gii Ta c th coi bn cng l mt h thng ch thun nht vi s knh n=5 =20 tu/thng; Wb=6 ngy/tu; =30/6=5tu/thng. Vy: =/=20/5 =4 Kim tra iu kin: /n=4/5<1

V d
P0 = 1 n k n + 1 + k! n!(n ) k=0 = 1 5 4k 46 + k! 5!(5 4) k=0

259
= 0.013

45 n P = P0 = 0,013 = 0,555 q 4 5!(1 ) n!.1 5 n

4 Lq = .P = .0,555 = 2,2 n q 54

Wq=Lq/=2,2/20=0,1108 thng(3,3 ngy) Lb==4 nr=n-=5-4=1 Kb=Lb/n=4/5=0.8 hay 80% Kr=nr/n=1/5=0.2 hay 20% TC=T(LbCb+nrCr+LqCq) =(4x1+1x1+2.2x1)=7.2 (triu ng)

5.5.3. H thng ch hn ch
260

Trong thc t sinh hot v hot ng sn xut , nhiu h thng thuc h thng ch hn ch ny. Vy, M t h thng ny thnh dng tng qut nh th no? S trng thi v cng thc tnh cc xc sut trng thi ra sao? H thng ch tiu phn tch gm nhng ch tiu g?

a. Bi ton
261

Mt h thng c n knh phc v, nng sut nh nhau v bng , thi gian phc v ca cc knh tun theo qui lut hm s m vi tham s . Dng yu cu n h thng l dng ti gin vi cng . H thng phc v theo nguyn tc: Mi mt yu cu n h thng nu gp lc trong h thng c t nht 1 knh ri th c nhn vo phc v, ngc li nu gp lc tt c cc knh u bn th s xy ra 2 trng hp: Nu trong h thng s yu cu ch cn t hn s yu cu ch cho php (m) th yu cu c xp hng ch tip theo. Nu trong h thng s yu cu ch (bng m) th yu cu b t chi v ra khi h thng.

Hy xy dng h thng ch tiu nh gi tnh hnh hot ng ca h thng.

b. S trng thi v cc xc sut trng thi

262

Theo gi thit bi ton, h thng c cc trng thi sau: Xk (k=0n) l trng thi h thng c k yu cu; Xn + s (s=1m) l trng thi trong h thng c n yu cu ang c phc v v s yu cu ch. S trng thi:
X0 Xn+1 n

X1 2 Xn+s

Xk k

Xn-1

Xn n

(k+1) (n-1)

Xn+m n

b. S trng thi v cc xc sut trng thi

263

Cng thc tnh cc xc sut trng thi

k pk = p0 k!

k = 1, n

p n +s

n +s = p0 s n!n
n k

s = 1,2...

p0 =

1 k! + n! k =0
n

n s =1
m

c. H thng ch tiu phn tch tnh hnh hot ng

264

01. Xc sut trong h thng khng c yu cu (P0)

Cng thc tnh nh sau:

Phn nh kh nng mi knh ca h thng u ri, ng thi cho bit t l thi gian mi knh u ri so vi ton b thi gian hot ng ca h thng. 1
p0 = k n m k! + n! n k =0 s =1
n s

02. Xc sut t chi yu cu (Ptc) Cho bit kh nng mt yu cu n h thng b t chi, ng thi cn cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng b t chi so vi ton b s yu cu n h thng. n+m Cng thc tnh nh sau: p tc = p0
n!n m

c. H thng ch tiu
265

03. Xc sut phc v yu cu (Pv)

Cho bit kh nng mt yu cu n h thng c nhn vo phc v, ng thi cn cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng c phc v.
Cng thc tnh: Pv = 1- Ptc 04. Xc sut ch ca yu cu (Pq) Cho bit kh nng mt yu cu n h thng phi ch, ng thi cho bit t l s yu cu n h thng phi ch so vi ton b s yu cu n h thng. m 1 Cng thc tnh:
p q = p n +s
s =0

c. H thng ch tiu
266

05. S trung bnh cc yu cu ch (Lq)

Cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu yu cu phi ch.
Cng thc tnh:
L q = sp n +s
s =1 m

06. S trung bnh cc knh bn (Lb) Cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh bn. Cng thc tnh: Lb=pv

c. H thng ch tiu
267

07. S trung bnh cc knh ri (nr)

Cho bit trong h thng trung bnh c bao nhiu knh ri.
Cng thc tnh: nr=n-Lb 08. S trung bnh cc yu cu lu li trong h thng (L) Cho bit trung bnh c bao nhiu yu cu lu li trong h thng. Cng thc tnh: L=Lb+Lq

c. H thng ch tiu
268

09. Thi gian ch trung bnh (Wq)

Cho bit thi gian trung bnh mi yu cu phi ch.

Cng thc tnh: Wq=Lq/ 10. Thi gian trung bnh cc yu cu lu li trong h thng (W) Cho bit thi gian trung bnh mt yu cu phi lu li trong h thng, n bao gm thi gian ch v thi gian phc v. Cng thc tnh: W=Wq+Wb

c. H thng ch tiu
269

11. H s cc knh bn (Kb)

Cho bit t l s knh bn so vi ton b cc knh ca h thng.

Cng thc tnh: Kb=Lb/n 12. H s knh ri (Kr) Cho bit t l s knh ri so vi ton b cc knh ca h thng. Cng thc tnh: Kr=nr/n

c. H thng ch tiu
270

13. Nng lc phc v thc t ca h thng (Q)

Cho bit trung bnh trong mt n v thi gian, h thng phc v c bao nhiu yu cu.
Cng thc tnh: Q = Pv 14. Tng chi ph v tn tht (TC) Cho bit tng chi ph cho cc knh lm vic, cc knh khng lm vic, cho cc yu cu ch v tn tht do t chi cc yu cu. Cng thc tnh: TC=T(LbCb+nrCr+LqCq+ PtcCtc)

c. H thng ch tiu
271

15. Doanh thu (D)

Phn nh ton b kt qu thu c do phc v cc yu cu.

Cng thc tnh: D = T. Pv.d 16. Hiu qu kinh t (E) Cho bit kt qu cui cng ca h thng trong ton b thi gian hot ng ca h thng. Cng thc tnh: E = D- TC

d. V d
272

Mt trm sa cha my nng nghip c mt cn nh cha c mt my ang sa cha v mt sn c din tch cha c 3 my ch. Bit rng trm sa cha xong mt my trung bnh mt 2 ngy v trung bnh 2 ngy c mt my n trm sa cha. Nguyn tc phc v ca trm l nguyn tc phc v ca h thng ch vi di hng ch hn ch. Yu cu: - Hy nh gi tnh hnh phc v ca trm; - Gi s tng thm 1 dy chuyn sa cha na th tnh hnh phc v ca trm nh th no. Bit rng nng sut phc v v cng dng vo khng i.

V d
273

n=1; m=3; wb=2ngy/my; =0,5 my/ngy .Vy =/ =1

P0 = 1 1k 3 1 s n m s + . + . k! n! s = 1 n k! 1! s = 1 1 k=0 k=0 n+m 1 Ptc = Pn + m = .P0 = .0,2 = 0,2 n!.n m 1!.1 k 1 n = 1 11 = 0 .2

Pv = 1 - PTC=1-0,2=0,8
11 2 1 s n m 1 s Pw = P0 . = 0,2. . = 0.6 n! s = 0 n 1! s = 0 1 s s n m 11 3 1 . s. = 0,2 L q = P0 . s. = 1.2 n! s = 1 n 1! s = 1 1

L=Lq+Lb=1.2+0.8=2; Wq=Lq/=1.2/0.5=2.4; Q=Pv=0,5x0,8=0,4 my