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Nazim Nicholas Taleb,
Rakesh Jhun Jhunwala

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The word experience in English means to go through - to go

through a thing. And when you go through, there must be no memory of
what you have been through; otherwise you are not through the experience.
We do not go through any form of thought or feeling if we dont go right
through it; it must leave no mark, no imprint. That imprint, that mark, that
memory directs the next experience, shapes the next experience. We have a
thousand experiences, and each experience leaves a mark, and that mark
leaves the memory which recognizes the next experience, and so shapes that
experience, conditions

it so

that the mind becomes

more

and more

conditioned by the past. So one discovers as one takes this journey for one
self that every form of experience

has its own

limitation We have had

thousands and thousands of wars; we have had millions of years of sorrow,

and we are not free from it, So one wonders if experience teaches anything at
all psychologically, or it only toughens the mind, makes the mind more dull.

- J. Krishnamurti

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Gu

lPlThP.
CjR

TXRU]

uWLm

u\].

NpXlT]p CkRl jRLU J uWRu. H]p C

YWlTm TLm URu TpYRU] ZlTeL[m
AYu

Gdm

Lp

Es[

WiTL[m

Tt

GUV] A[p UhU Todu\]. TWeL[j Rk

Ls[ mTYoLs CQVR[m Utm Ce lPlThs[
BVoLu LhWLs Xm Rkd Ls[Xm.

29

LWl ehd L[d oTnf

GkRd
NkRLm

dlTVp

CkR

VVU]R!

TdLlThPYoLs

UVpXm

B]p

CRf

NnYu

EiUV]

NnYoL[?

Gu\

U]X

CpXV?

Tef

NkRp TQm Tm pXW RhP[oLs G]lTm TjR,

TdLR URLs TmTm SpX TeL[ GpXm th
ElTPR LmTL[ YPdLQdp Yjl Tojd Li
ClToLs. Hu Gu TolTm.
TmTm
rXLp
GdvTdPh

Gu]Yu

YjRXl
h

TtV
(Expected

RYLj

RVR

BWnfLs

GpXm

Utility

Theory)

Gu\

LsLVV AlTPVLd Lis[] Gu SmTlTu\.

CR] GoTojR TXu LsL Gum NpXXm.
CRuT, J NVXf NnV, Jud UtThP YLs
ClTRL

Yjd

LsYm.

Rp

YV

Gjd

Li, ARu Yt YnldL] NRRm Utm ARu TXu

CWiPm

Td

GiQL

Utd

Ls[

Yim.

CTu JqY YVm NnR u AYtp GkRj RL

TV GiQL Yu\R ARV YL Htd Ls[Xm.
ERWQUL Rp Yu Yt Ynl = 80%
TXu = 1000.
CWiPm Yu Yt Ynl

= 20%
TXu = 5000

Gu Yjd LiPp
Rp Yu GoTojR TXu

= 1000 x 0.8 = 800

CWiPm Yu GoTojR TXu

= 5000 x 0.2 = 1000

UtLiP ERWQjk CWiPm YV \kR Gu\

d YWXm. (1000 Tn 800 T] P ALm)

30

(C Cum [dLULl V Yim Gu\p LrRL

Gu

Probability

NpXlTPdV

Gu\

LRju

[dLULl TdL Yim. RYV], L]U] LRl TLs

GpXm BeLeL RVLj RWlTm. VhPp TRLpX)
EiUp

URoLs

Rp

VTRu

Ls

Gdu\oL[ Gu BWnfLs TX SPk Yu\]. JqY

XdL]

Lrdm

[dLm

Lj

Ut\T

UjRjp TmTX]o GdvTdPh h V TV

Ydu\]o

Gu\

LsLVV

TX

AVX[oLm

LPlj YkR]o.
AUv

Utm

L]Uu

CYm

GkR

A[d

EiU Gu\ NR]Lp C\e]o. TpYRU] LsL[

UQYoLPm Lj AYoLu TpL[ BWnf NnR]o.
Ak EiUV] URoLs JqY rXm JqY
RUL YlTR LijR]o. AYoLs LhP Tu\ X
LsL[ Sm TolTm. AYoLs NpYRtLL AlTV
SmP U Gu]? Z Ym LsLd kRYW k
EiUV] PVdLm.

NR] - 1
rdLiPYtp eLs GR moLs. (EeLd JY[
Pdm Gu\p)
A. . 1000 PdL 60% Ynl
Jum CpXUp TL 40% Ynl (UjRm 100% GuTRp)
B. .450 Uhm Ttd Ls[Xm.
UtLiP

Lsd

TmTX]o

GuTRV

RokRjR]o. (EeLs TX U]p Yjd Ls[m)

Expected Utility Theory-u

AlTPp

LQdl

TojRp TmTX]u RY Gu RV Ym.

Thl

31

NR] 1 A. 1000 x 0.6 + 0 = 600.

B. 450.
ARY J 10 \ AI RokRjkRp 600 x 10 = 6000
Tn Pjdm. B]p BIj RokRjkRp 450 x 10 =
4500

Tn

UhU

Pjdm.

VVUL

TmTX]o

AIV RokRdL Yim. J LlT AqYRu Rok

Gdm. Expected Utility Theory NVL CdmThNjp URoLm
AqYRu RokRjlToLs.
B]p URoLs GhPR TXdL] P Lp Pdm
L[dLV Up Gu Giu\]o. ARY LhPVm SUdd
Pdm V TXu JY[ PdLd V TV TX] P
\kR

Gu

Giu\]o.

AR]XV

TX]j

RokRdu\]o.

NR] - 2
UtLiP

Tu\

Utm

NR]:

HRY

Ynl]j RokRdL Yim.

A. . 1000 CZdL 60% Ynl
Jum CZdLUp 40% Ynl
B. .450I LhPVm CZdL Yim.
UtLiP

NR]p

TmTX]o

YV

RokRjR]o. NVLd LQdl Thl TojRp A XV

AL CZl Ym (60% x 1000 = 600 Tn). CkRm UdLs
YUV] YV Gdu\]o. AYoLd LhPVm 450
Tn CZlTRP 1000 Tn CZdL 60% Ynls[ YV
ELkRRLj Ru\.

32

NR] B!
EeLs

Tid

GkR

Uls[V

RokRloLs.

(TWmTW V TWm Gu\ AVp A CpX Gu Yjd

LsYm)
A. NkRjp RVWL Es[ LgNm SpX TVu.
B. Yp SpX TVu PdL 50% Ynl. UNU]
TVu PdL 30% Ynl. LPYW Uls[ PdLUp
TL 20% Ynl.

NR] K!
A. NkRjp RVWL Es[ ERYdLW TVu.
B. Yp SpX TVu PdL 30% Ynl. UNU]
TVu PdL 50% Ynl. LPYW YWu PdLUp TL
20% Ynl.
NkRjp J UW] Uls[ CkRp, Sm ALm
VdLUp, Yp SpX Uls[ PdL Ynl CkRm
ARl TTjRUp TmTm NkRjp Es[ TV]V
RokRlTm. AR

NUVm

NkRjp

Es[

Uls[

ERYdLW Gu RmThNjp Yp JY[ UNU]

Uls[ AUkPd m Gu\ BTj CkRm AR]l
ThTjRUp YXV RYm. C TmTX]YoLs
uTtm Y\V. RlThP Xo XdLL CdLd m.
Hu

CqY\pXm

Sm

SPd\m

GuTRV

uYm

lWvTdh V [du\.
Prospect Theory - lWvTdh V
PVp Utm AUv, UX V Tu\ HW[U]
NR]L[f Nn ReLs L[l lWvTdh V Gu\
TVp YhP]o.

33

URoLs LhPVm SPdLd V [Ld, JY[

SPdLd

[L[P

AL

dVjYm

Ru\]o.

LhPVm TXu PdmThNjp A VRL CkRm Htd

Ls[j

RVWL

Es[]o.

AY

JY[

PdLXm,

PdLUm TLXm Gu\ rXp ALl TXu RWdV

YVV mu\]o. TQj] CZkRu BLYim Gu
YmT \Y] TQU]m AR LhPVm CZlTRP
YYp

Nu

Jum

CZdLUp

Rldm

Ynl]f

Njl TodL mu\]o. (Ap JY[ L ALU]

CZl]f NkdL SokRm LYXlTYpX)
UtLiP
TeL

Ye

LWQeL[XV
A

KW[

RhP[oLs

XTjp

HRY

NkR

NV

CdmT

BWmjRX, TQjRY Gu\X EP] tu\]o. A

SpX TeLL CdmThNjp u]p X H H GhPR
EVWjd Num.

ARNUVm Y J TeL Ye

A YeV XVP \k mT, A NV] Te

ApX, Um X NV Ynls[ Gu\m AR] SxPjp
tL Vm mYpX. Gu\Y JSs SpX Xd Ym
Gu GoToj YPd LQdp Ljdu\]o, CX LjR
TX.
TX SWeLp AYoLs GoTojR TXY AkR Y]m
GpXl

WfN]L[m

BWmjRPu
ARY

ClT

Ri

RLl

SpX

Teu
SpX

XTm

TeLL

H\

NmTdL
BWmdm.

Um.

B]m

SUdjRu SpX LhP RVR! Gu AkRl Teu X

Ru YeV (TX YPeLd u) XVj Ru\R
Au\ AR] tYoLs. \ A TX UPe X H
Sm Np YeVYoLs TV A[p XTm TodmT
Yt\fNXV [lm. LxP LXm Ym EPu Ckh
SpX SWm YmT Yrj Alm SpX Es[m pXW
RhP[oL[j RW Vd Ym?

34

J T] Ntd
JT] Ntd J N TRm GuT GpXdm
RkR

TZU.

CRf

Nt

Njl

TodLXm.

GPdUPdL] NkRLeLs XUL,

1.

J T] Ntp JW RU] AVl TPUp IR 20

Tu, ] Utm Ch A GpXm Th Ju\Lf
NUjRp
[Vm

GqY

TRm

(J

TolT.

LXjp

fNVUL

[VV)

ZkRLs
hPgN

AqYRu NnVlTu\.
2.

AV LU, Lm Tu\Yt\V ApX HRY

Tl

ApX

(TeLp,

TVYLVV

Noj

Tu\Yt\

YL

YjRp

AqY\

NnV

YiYm) GlT TRm TolT.

3.

JY[

JW

TU]

A[

AVV
CpX

YL

Gu\p

YjRm
Z

Uhm

Rio
Yk

Lm B]m UX YLUp P CdL m.

TjWm Uhm Nt EVWUL CkRp Tm.
G]Y

TZU

Gu]U

EiU

Gu\m

ARu

u] X AlTP SmdLLs Es[]. AYt\ NVLl k

Ls[Up BRlT, GolT CWiU WfN]d YYdm.
J X YlTPV] APV[eL[ Uhm Yjd Li
GRlTtm odLU] J d YY NVpX.
NmTkRU CpXUp ClT NUVd Gu] RY? GRt
CkR BWnf? Gu Vjd LiP rYm Lsd P
NpXm.

NR] - 1
J URu, J UX Y[, LRo T_U, Ys[ Yx,
J _p] T, Ap J jRLm NRUL J eL AL
TndLi Cdu\o. AYo VWL CdLd m?

35

1. J YN
2. J tT]l W
3. J GjR[o
4. J UjYo
5. J TV[o
UtLiP Lsdl TmTX]o J GjR[o Gu\
TXV

ASLUL

Ydu\m?
AlTPV]

AdLd

Sm

U]p

SmdLLm,

m.

Hu

Sm

JqYu\l
LjLm

AqY

Ttm
Es[].

X
Sm

TmTX] NUVeLp Njl TodLUXV UXhPUL,

X APV[e[ Uhm Yj GkR Ym Gjd Li,
YLULl Tnd LiP Cdu\m. GRm W Nj
YdL SWpX ApX AlTV iP LXUL Nn
YYRp

GpXm

SpXYoLs

Gu

YNV]YoLs

TZ

u\.

Sm\m.

Gum

Ys[VL

JSs

EVokR

Kp

ClTYoLs

EPVkRYoLs
Yej

RkRYoLs

SiToLs Gum Giu\m.

CR AlTPpRu SoLj RoLp J X LsLs
Uhm Lh JYd YX LdLlTu\. AL UlTi
Tt\YoLs

AYLs

TmTX]

SWeLp

Gu\
A

AkRv]

NV

Gu\m

APu\]o.
X

dVU]

TlLdLL Y[Lj RoLu Xm RokRdLlTTYoLs

NVLl T NnY CpX Gu dLlThs[. AYoLs
ReLs

SX]V

TTYoL[Lm

CpXRYoL[Lm

AUk

TX

u\]o.

SWeLp
JSs

YNm
J

UjLs Ru]lTt SpXRULd Lhd Ls[ (EiUVL

CpXhPm) TmTX]Wp u\. C Tu\YoL[
BpT Up (Alpha Male) Gu AZdu\]o.
CR Pl TV RY Ti Todm T HtTu\.
TWmTVUL EP AkR TiQP SLLUL EP Am
TiLu

UQm

TmTm

Rsl

Tu\.

SiToLs

ERV AZLL NX Lh (J X ShLs Uhm) J

36

LhlThV] STWj UQm Nn hl u SLL EP

Utm SPjRd UmT Wf]Ls YWjRu Nnu\.
A, B Gu\ CWi TsL[ Gjd Ls[m. Cp A
Gu\

Ts

Bk

YkR

B GuT

ApX

Ak

EY] GuTR CWidm GqY[ Wm EYjX ApX

Y NVeLX Jjl Tu\] GuTR Yj NnRp
WlWNuPq]v

TVv

(Representativeness

AZdLlTu\.

ARY

JW

UV]

Bias)

Gu

EYm

EPV

CTiLp YVR]Yo RVLm C[VYo UL]Lm CdL

Yim

Gu

dWUjRd

NnRp.

YR[m

CR

NpV

Tu

LPd

Lr

LRp

Ym.

AlTm TVm LXj RPju A[L[ Yjj RY\]

Yj UL[m RVm Utj UQm Nn LsYo.
AkRd

LRu

NVX

lTovPu

Rp

TPU]

L]Uu

CYm

AoYWLeLp LQXm.
AUv

Yov

Utm

PVp

GoLXj]l TdLd V JqY dV Ym Sm

GdmTRpXm AlTPVLl TodL YiRLd LRlTm,
TX

NVeL[

YfNjdd

BWnk
Li

AYtp

Yks[]o.

Es[
AYtp

TX

RYL[

JuRu

CkR

WlWNuPhq]v TVv. Sm CR] J NtlTRd ZlTm

Gu LsYm. Hu C RY Gu TolTm.
Sm Rp LhP Vo AkR URo? Gu\ Lsd Smp
TmTX]YoLs,

AYo

GjR[o

GuRu

Ydu\m. B]p AYWl Tt Gm NpXUp J

URo eLp SPk Li Cdu\o. ASLUL AYo Gu]
Rp NnVdm Gu LhkRp Sm AYo J

YN

Gu\, tT]l W Gu\Ru NpXdm. H]u\p

SmShp L ALUL YNLm, tT]l WLU
Es[]o. TV[oLs P ALUhP]o. B]p BWjp
JYo

GjR[WL

CdL

Ynl

Ld

\.

G]Y

Gu]Ru EP Ak CkRm RtNVXL Sm TolTYo J

37

GjR[WL
GjR]

CdL

NRRm

EjRNULd

URoLs

YjRp

YiVR

Rate

Sm

GjR[oL[L

RVUp

(Base

CpX.

Ym

Fallacy)

Rp

Cdu\]o

EPV

Tv

td
Gu

Uhm

Wh

Yj

@TX

Gu

AZdLlTu\. CR Um J NR] Xm [ed

Ls[ VtlTm.

NR] - 2
CWi
Ys[l

ThLs

TkLs

Es[].

Utm

Rp
Te

Thp
Lll

CWi

TkLs

Te

Es[].

CWiPY Thp CWi UPe Lll TkLm J UPe

Ys[l TkLm Es[].
CWi ThLkm JYo X TkL[ Gdu\o.
Rp \ HR J Thk 5 TkL[ Gdu\o. Ap
4 Ll Utm 1 Ys[l Tk Es[.
CWiPY \ AjR Thk Uo 15 TkL[
AYo Gdu\o. Ap 11 Ll Utm 4 Ys[l TkLs
Es[]. CWi \U Ll TkL[ ALm Yks[].
ClT CWi ULp G Ll TkLs ALm (2:1
Gu\ Rm) Es[ Thk YkdLd m.
1. Rp\ - 4 Ll 1 Ys[
2. CWiPm \ - 11 Ll 4 Ys[
TmTX]YoLs

Rp\

GjR

TkL[

ALm

Lll TkLs Es[ Thp Ck YkdLd m Gu\

d

Yu\]o.

RY

Gu

NpX

VhPm

LrRL LuT \Y] TkL[ (5) Yj NnVlTm

NR]L[P ALU] TkL[ (15) Yj GdLlTm
SmTLjRuU YnkR. JuWi LsL[ YjR J X
PeLs TojRR YjR VWl Ttm J d YY
LL BTjR].

38

CRt Law of Small Numbers, ARY V GidL

Gu TVo. ARuT UjRj Rk J TV
Gjf

NjRp

AkR

Uu

EiUV]

WTlTL Cdm Gu SmTlTu\. ARY J T]

Ntk X TdLLs Gjl TRm TolT TX.

Tef NkRp EPm T]Ls

CqY[m Rk Gu] BLlT\. Tef NkRp C
GqY YX Nnu\ Tu\ NkRLeLdL] TXf
BWnYm. im J L]U] NR] Xm.

NR] - 3
JYo J L] Yj Y, RXV Thl Todu\o.
Uo

RPY

AqY

Nn\o

Gu

Yjd

LiPp

rdLiPYtp G ASLUL EiUVL SPkdLd m.

A. RX RX RX
B. RX RX RX
C. RX RX RX RX
TmTm

A]Ym

ApX

Gu\

dL

YklTm RPok Su\ RX Ym C SPdL YnlLs

Ld \ Gu GiYm. H]p TmTm RX Utm
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Yim Gu\ SU SmdLV Sm A ApX BVj RokRdL
LWQm. EiUp AqY SPlTR CpX. 1000 \ i]p
hPjRhP 500 \ YkRm 4 \ i]p 2 \
YW. CR eLs ClTR Nn TodLXm. ARY J T]
Ntd J X TdLLs TRUL ClT CpX.
CkR

SmdLu

LWQULY

Tef

NkRp

YLoLs Utm F & O Gu NpXlTPd V Futures & Options

Gu\ BTjR] RhPjp DTTYoLs CWi ShLs RPok
C\e]p u\Y Ss Hm Gum CWi ShL[ RPok
HkRp C\em Gum TkRVm Lh TmTm TQjR

39

CZdu\]o. UX Nu\ NkR Z Ym Gu\m A

Sm

]dmT SPdLY SPdL. Vm, Tm RhP[oLs,

TejRWLoLs P AR NVLd LdL CVX. LhPVm L SpX
Te

JSs

Hm

GuT

B]p

Ld

\Y]

LXdLp (XShLp, YWeLp, UReLp) Sm GoTold

tm

U\LY

GpXm

SPdm.

Sm

Ljk

Ljk

LXeLs T] u LhPVm JSs SPdm. B]p SmUp

AYW TdL V.

40

QtjRY[
\Vl Td CkRd LR Rm. YXLm RVR
URoL[

Sm

CqY

AZlT

Ei.

LPp

RY[

RtNVXL J Qtj RY[V ARu Qtp Nkdu\.

QtjRY[: Gek Y\n? Gu LhL, LPp RY[:
LPk Y\u Gu u\. LPp Gu\p Gu]?
Gu LhLp, A J TV oTWl Gu u\.
TV Gu\p GqY[? Gu\ Qtj RY[u Lsd
Ll TV Gu\Pu, Qtj RY[ Qt\ dLL J
R

CqY[

TVR?

Gu

ARPl

LhLm,

TV Gu LPp RY[ u\. CRlTX CWi UPe

TVR? Gu LhPRt, CpX, CpX, ARm P TV.
Gu]p AR YojRL[p \Y V, AqY[ TV,
Gu u\. ARtd Qtj RY[ CkRd Qt\ P
TXUPe TV Ju CdLY V. TnRu Np\n,
GqY[

LXUL

Su

CeL

Yru\u

RU?

Gu\.

LPp LPp RY[ Qtj RY[Vd hdLi Nu

LPXd LhV. AlTRu ARt, R]d RkR, Ru]p
LtT] NnV kR Uhm EXLm ApX, CVtL LtT]d
GhPR

Gu.

Cdu\m.
AOoLs,

Smp

TmTXo

YXLm

NR]V[oLs

Qtj

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P

ReLs

RY[L[LY

UhUpX.

LlTV

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RW

Ut\

RYV] `VeLp Lm u ReV Es[]o. LiLhhP

TkRVd WVl TX.
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LYXL[m

EQok

Ls[

kRm,

AYoLs

Xp

SmU Yjl TodL kRm, J U]Y[of \T Es[

URo

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Rum SUd, TW Tu\ AY, Ru]p LR GR SWm

41

JdL VpX Gu YjRlThPp, A ASYVm Gu

UhU Rum. AYo Xp SmU Yj SmUp TodLY
EQWY VY V.
C TXY TQm NXRp Tu\ TX dV NVeLp
Sm SUdj RkR, SmUp k Ls[ kR `VeL[
YjR

Ydu\m.

AYnXh

CqRU]

TZdLR`jt

(Avalability Heuristics)

vd

Gu

TVo.

ARuT, Sm J LVm SPlTRtL] NjVd Gu] Gu

UlmT, Sm U]Rp GqY[ GRL AkRd LVjR
OTLjt LiYW u\. ARPu NmTkRlThP Ut\
`VeLs

GqY[

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Gu\

AlTPXV Nnu\m. Sm U]X HtL]Y CpXR

J

NVjRl

TmTm

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AR

Yj J YdLY V.
SU hPp C[Oo JYo CRVSVp C\khPp
Fp \V C[OoLd CRVSn ClTRL Giu\m.
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Rk

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Ll

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Nn

BTj

Gu

RtlT]p
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B]p VWY BWm Tn LjRp .., d, WiPo

GpXm J URjp Ru\m Gu ]p, SU TdLj
hdLWo A TX TQm Lh YehPo Gu\p, RVUL
Sm TQm Lh HUu\m.
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LVjp

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Sm

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NRWQm Gu Giu\ LrLs Tm BTjp SmUd
Li

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hm.

CR]l

Tt ThPmf

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ThPmf C\dLV ANlTp HtTm. ANLs Y J
CPjp J VXd P EYdL m Gu u\]o.

42

Cp GqY\pXm RY Sm Gu\p, Gp OTLm

Yjd Ls[dV RLWU] `VeLs ALm SPlTRL Sm
Sm\m.

AR]j

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TTj EeLd Ll TV V YWdm Gu

\Vd L\k u\]o.
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Ll ApX Tjd Llh LYo YkRp Sm HtL]Y
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ALj

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B]p

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CpX. fNm Ltd LsY CpX. H]p r C\lTYo
Y TmTm YlTPVLj RV. SmUm AR EQW
V.

T.V.p

Super singer Tojh Thd

Ltj

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