The Law of Large Numbers

Big Money Ball

Sorted by Times Drawn
#
Times
Drawn
% of
Drawings
Last
Drawn
02 09 4.59% 11/24/2000
08 09 4.59% 11/28/2000
2 09 4.59% 11//2000
0! 08 4.08% 11/1/2000
04 08 4.08% 10/20/2000
15 08 4.08% "/!0/2000
1 08 4.08% 11/21/2000
20 08 4.08% 8/8/2000
25 08 4.08% 5/12/2000
2! 0 !.5% 11/!/2000
#y
$rysta% $&erry
'(%f $oast $omm(nity $o%%ege
)o*ember 2000
T&e %aw of %arge n(mbers is a t&eory on +robabi%ity by ,a-ob #erno(%%i. a
noted Swiss /at&emati-ian. 0&en #erno(%%i wrote &is essay on &is t&eory of
+robabi%ity it was -a%%ed 1rs $on2e-tandi. 3e wor4ed &ard on it in-%(ding many
-a%-(%ations to s(++ort &is t&eory. 3owe*er. t&e essay was not +(b%is&ed (nti%
eig&t years after &is deat&. 0&en it -ame o(t. not many +eo+%e (nderstood
#erno(%%i5s t&eory. 3owe*er. Leonard 6(%er. one of t&e greatest mat&emati-ians
e*er. (nderstood it and e7+%ained it. T&e %aw of %arge n(mbers states8
9:n any -&an-e e*ent. w&en t&e e*ent &a++ens re+eated%y. t&e
statisti-s wi%% tend to +ro*e t&e +robabi%ities.9
T&is 2(st means t&at w&en an e*ent is done re+eated%y. t&e -a%-(%ated res(%t
(s(a%%y mat-&es t&e a-t(a% res(%t. T&e (se of it &e%+s +redi-t t&e o(t-ome for an
e*ent. :t is a++%ied today to many t&ings in-%(ding ins(ran-e. t&e %ottery. and
statisti-s.
1n e7am+%e of t&e %aw of %arge n(mbers in a-tion wo(%d be tossing fo(r
+ennies in t&e air 1" times. 1--ording to t&e t&eory. one toss s&o(%d &a*e a%%
&eads. fo(r tosses s&o(%d &a*e t&ree &eads and one tai%. si7 tosses s&o(%d &a*e
two &eads and two tai%s. fo(r tosses s&o(%d &a*e t&ree tai%s and one &ead. and
one toss s&o(%d &a*e a%% tai%s. T&is is s&own in t&e tab%e be%ow.
Table 1: Tossing ;o(r $oins Si7teen Times
)(mber of 3eads 4 ! 2 1 0
T&eory <redi-ts 1 4 " 4 1
=es(%ts 2 2 4 1
>o( wi%% noti-e t&o(g& t&at in some of t&e -ases t&e +redi-tion and res(%t do not
mat-& and are not -%ose. T&is is be-a(se to agree wit& t&e t&eory yo( need to
do t&e e*ent many times. T&e ne7t two tab%es s&ow t&e res(%ts after t&e +enny is
tossed 1"0 times. 1"00 times. and 1"000 times.
Table 2: Tossing ;o(r <ennies 1"0 Times
)(mber of 3eads 4 ! 2 1 0
T&eory <redi-ts 10 40 "0 40 10
=es(%ts 10 40 "1 !8 11
Table 3: Tossing ;o(r <ennies 1"00 Times
)(mber of 3eads 4 ! 2 1 0
T&eory <redi-ts 100 400 "00 400 100
=es(%ts 125 40! 5" 409 9"
Table 4: Tossing ;o(r <ennies 1"000 Times
)(mber of 3eads 4 ! 2 1 0
T&eory <redi-ts 1000 4000 "000 4000 1000
=es(%ts 1009 !94" 5992 404 100"
>o( -an see by %oo4ing at t&e tab%es t&at t&e more times t&e e*ent was done. t&e
-%oser t&e +redi-tion and res(%ts were.
3e%+f(% Sites8
1 S%ides&ow abo(t t&e Law of Large )(mbers
&tt+8//www.mat&.(nt.ed(/?monti-no/-%ass@+resentations//1T3@4"50/Law@of
@Large@)(mbers@Le-t(re@11/s%d001.&tm
1 ,a*a demonstration
&tt+8//statAwww.ber4e%ey.ed(/(sers/star4/,a*a/%%n.&tm
1 <robabi%ity $a%-(%ator
&tt+8//www.anesi.-om/+oisson.&tm
=eferen-es8
1. &tt+8//statAwww.ber4e%ey.ed(/(sers/star4/,a*a/%%n.&tm
2. &tt+8//newris4.if-i.-&/00011885.&tm
!. &tt+8//wwwAgro(+s.d-s.stA
and.a-.(4/?&istory//at&emati-ians/#erno(%%i@,a-ob.&tm%
4. &tt+8//www.mat&.(nt.ed(/?monti-no/-%ass@+resentations//1T3@4"50/Law@of
@Large@)(mbers@Le-t(re@11/s%d001.&tm
5. &tt+8//+es+m-1.*(b.a-.be/as-/Law@n(mbe.&tm%
". &tt+8//wwwAgro(+s.d-s.stAand.a-.(4/?&istory//at&emati-ians/6(%er.&tm%
. &tt+8//www.%otteryameri-a.-om/s(ggested/%aw.&tm