Arkansas Tech University

MATH 2924: Calculus II

Dr. Marcel B. Finan
33 The Logistic Model
One of the applications to rst order linear dierential equations that we dis-
cussed in Section 31 was Malthus population model described by
dP
dt
= kP
where k = r
b
r
d
. The solution to this dierential equation is P(t) = P(0)e
kt
.
As you can see, this model predicts either population growth without bound
( k > 0) or inevitable extinction (k < 0). So basically the relative birth rate
k is independent of the population size, i.e., constant.
Neither case is typically observed in reality, that is, what is actually observed
diers substantially from what is predicted by the solution of the equation.
What is often observed is that small populations often (though not always) in-
crease in number ( because resources are plentiful and the population should
thrive and grow) while very large populations tend to decline in number
( since resources become scarcer; for example, food availability decreases,
waste products may accumulate and birth rates tend to decline while death
rates tend to increase.) So the relative birth rate in Malthus model should
be replaced by a population-depedent relative birth rate.
The Logistic Model
The realistic model that we consider is of the form
dP
dt
= h(P)P
which is similar to Maltheus model except that now the growth rate h(P)
depends on the population size. We conjecture the following about h(P) :
When P is small the population grows so that h(P) > 0.
When P is large the population declines so that h(P) < 0.
The simplest way to implement this is by letting
h(P) = r P
so that when the population is small then h(P) r > 0 and when the
population is large then h(P) P < 0. This then gives the following
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population equation known as the logistic equation
dP
dt
= r

1
P
K

P (1)
where r and K are positive constants. Note that if P(t) > K then
dP
dt
< 0
causing the population to decrease whereas if 0 < P(t) < K then
dP
dt
> 0
causing the population to increase. The constant K is called the carrying
capacity. It represents the largest population that the environment can
support. Note that the carrying capacity occurs at the equilibrium solution
P(t) = K so sometimes the carrying capacity is referred to as the equi-
librium value. The phase portrait or the direction eld looks like the one
shown in Figure 33.1
Figure 33.1
Notice the characteristic S-shape which is typical of logistic functions. The
curve below P(t) = 0 corresponds to negative initial population and do not
have any physical signicance.
Initial population between 0 and K grows almost exponentially at rst.
Grows slow as P approach the limiting value K. As t , P K.
Initial population larger than K decreases to K as t . Physically the
initial population is larger than the environment can support, and hence in-
dividuals die o.
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Solving the Logistic Equation
The logistic equation (1) is a separable dierential equation. The solution
function is called logistic function and its graph is called the logistic
curve. We will solve (1) by separating the variables. Indeed, separating the
variables and using partial fractions we have the following:
dP
dt
=r

1
P
K

P
P

1
P
K

P
=r
P

P

P

P K
=r

P
dt

P K
dt =rt + C
ln

P
P K

=rt + C
P
P K
=Ce
rt
P(t) =
KCe
rt
1 Ce
rt
Since P(0) is the initial population, we nd C =
P(0)
P(0)K
so after substituting
and simplifying the solution becomes
P(t) =
KP(0)
P(0) + (K P(0))e
rt
(2)
Note that in the long run, P(t) approaches K, that is,
lim
t
P(t) = K.
Example 33.1
Suppose a student carrying a u virus returns to an isolated college campus
of 1000 students. If it is determined that the rate at which the virus spreads
is proportional not only to the number P(t) of students infected but also
to the number of students not infected. Determine the number of infected
students after 6 days given that the number of infected students after 4 days
is 50.
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Solution.
We rst must nd a formula for P(t) which is the solution to the IVP
dP
dt
= r(1000 P)P, P(0) = 1.
This equation can be rewritten in the form
dP
dt
= 1000r(1
P
1000
)P.
By (2) we nd
P(t) =
1000
1 + 999e
1000rt
But P(4) = 50 so that
50 =
1000
1 + 999e
4000r
Solving this equation for r we nd r 0.0009906. Thus,
P(t) =
1000
1 + 999e
0.9906t
Finally,
P(6) =
1000
1 + 999e
0.9906(6)
276 students
Point of Diminishing Returns
Another important feature of any logistic curve is related to its shape: every
logistic curve has a single inection point which separates the curve into two
equal regions of opposite concavity. This inection point is called the point
of diminishing returns.
Finding the Coordinates of the Point of Diminishing Returns
To nd the point of inection of a logistic function of the form P = f(t) =
K
1+Ce
rt
, we notice that P satises the equation
dP
dt
= rP

1
P
K

.
Using the product rule we nd
d
2
P
dt
2
= r
dP
dt

1
2P
K

.
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Since
dP
dt
> 0 we conclude that
d
2
P
dt
2
= 0 at P =
K
2
.
To nd t, we set P =
K
2
and solve for t :
K
2
=
K
1 + Ce
rt
2
K
=
1 + Ce
rt
K
2 =1 + Ce
rt
1 =Ce
rt
e
rt
=C
rt =ln C
t =
ln C
r
Thus, the coordinates of the diminishing point of returns are

ln C
r
,
K
2

.
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