Uva: A high stakes game

August 7, 2014
Uva-Wellassa, the land of one hundred thousand paddy felds, wll go to
the polls to ele!t ts provn!al representatves for the s"th t#e a$out s"
wee%s fro# now& 'he $order $etween (r )an%as $eautful !entral hlls
regon and ts dry *one runs through the Uva +rovn!e, #a%ng the two
dstr!ts t s ho#e to as d,erent as nght and day&
-t was
long-
ordaned that the Uva +rovn!al .oun!l ele!ton would $e an #portant
forerunner to a #u!h $gger ele!toral !ontest s!heduled for early 201/&
(taggered provn!al and lo!al govern#ent polls have $een the preferen!e
of the 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton sn!e t assu#ed o2!e& Untl the year
2004, all nne provn!al ele!tons were held on the sa#e date& 'hs has
always $een the #ore !ost e,e!tve, ad#nstratvely e2!ent way, yet the
staggered ele!tons o,er other, #ore #portant advantages, espe!ally for
the rulng !oalton&
(taggered ele!tons allow the 3overn#ent to fo!us ts !onsdera$le
resour!es n the targeted regons, and +resdent 4ahnda 0a1apa%sa who s
nevta$ly the fa!e of ea!h U+5A !a#pagn has !onsdera$le t#e to
thoroughly wor% a !a#pagn tral& )ately, under the 3overn#ents #ega
develop#ent drve, large nfrastru!ture pro1e!ts are fast-
tra!%ed or at the very least ther openngs strateg!ally t#ed
to #a"#se the U+5As advantage ahead of a provn!al
ele!ton&
-n the nne years of 0a1apa%sa regn, Uva-Wellassa has
re#aned one of the poorest regons n the !ountry, wth the
e"!epton of the e#$attled north and east& 6u#an
7evelop#ent -nd!ators n 8adulla are part!ularly poor& )arge
plantaton !o##untes n the hll dstr!t lvng n poor
!ondtons on paltry wages have !ontr$uted to these ratngs&
5or de!ades, the #ost rural and re#ote vllages of 4oneragala and
(ya#$alanduwa #ost !losely rese#$led the re#otest !orners of the
9orthern +rovn!e, ther untou!hed :ualty #"ng wth a$1e!t poverty and
na!!ess$lty& A!!ess$lty has #proved $y leaps and $ounds n vrtually
every provn!e n the !ountry, as a !onse:uen!e of the 3overn#ents pet
roadways pro1e!ts& 8ut Uva-Wellassa re#ans a vulnera$le regon, wth hgh
poverty rates that are rpe for polt!al e"plotaton and vote-$uyng through
handouts and ele!ton pro#ses&
'he 4oneragala advantage
6stor!ally, the 4oneragala 7str!t n part!ular has $een a good perfor#er
for the U+5A and +resdent 0a1apa%sa& -n the 2011 lo!al !oun!l ele!tons n
Uva, the rulng !oalton polled 1ust over ;0< n 4oneragala and #anaged
71< n (ya#$alanduwa& -t dd less well n 8adulla, a dstr!t wth large
#norty !o##untes, pollng =>< to wn the 8adulla 4un!pal .oun!l
wth 10 seats& -n the 2010 presdental ele!ton, +resdent 0a1apa%sa polled
nearly 70< n the 4oneragala 7str!t, whle the result n the 8adulla
7str!t was a #u!h $etter re?e!ton of the naton-wde vote wth /><& -n
the fnal all sland result, +resdent 0a1apa%sa polled /7<, $eatng hs #an
opponent and for#er Ar#y .hef (arath 5onse%a $y 17 per!entage ponts
to !ln!h a se!ond ter#&
-n lght of these fgures, the reallo!aton of seats for the Uva +rovn!al
.oun!l, $y redu!ng the nu#$er of ele!ted representatves fro# the
8adulla 7str!t, and n!reasng the nu#$er n 4oneragala $ased on land
#ass, #a%es perfe!t polt!al sense& 'he rulng allan!e wll have to
opt#se ts advantage n the 4oneragala 7str!t, wh!h t should !arry
!o#forta$ly n the 20 (epte#$er ele!ton, n order to ensure t !an hold the
Uva +. wth a de!ent #a1orty& 'he reallo!aton, te!hn!ally perfor#ed $y
the 1oval @le!tons .hef 4ahnda 7eshaprya, had one #a1or dsadvantage&
-t e"posed the 0a1apa%sa reg#es vulnera$lty n 8adulla early nto ths
ele!ton season& -t s an #portant wea%ness, one that the Ad#nstraton
wll have to fa!tor n repeatedly as t !onte#plates ts presdental ele!ton
fortunes n 201/&
Where large #norty populatons e"st, even n areas of the south,
+resdent 0a1apa%sa wll $e ele!torally vulnera$le& -n ea!h of these regons,
the 3overn#ent wll need a !ounter-strategy to #tgate those potental
losses& -n a far presdental !ontest, t s pra!t!ally a foregone !on!luson
that the 0a1apa%sa ad#nstraton wll lose vast swathes of the north and
east& 'he 'a#l populaton wll vote ada#antly aganst the +resdent and n
favour of the '9A !anddate& 'he reg#es syste#at! alenaton of the
4usl# populaton a!ross the sland wll harden postons n large 4usl#
settle#ents n the east, ensurng those votes too, go to an Apposton
!anddate&
-n the south, therefore, the U+5A wll have ts wor% !ut out tryng to $rdge
those losses wth n!reased support n regons where (nhalese voters are n
the #a1orty& Already, the Western and (outhern polls have nd!ated that
the 3overn#ents support $ase s fnally n de!lne, even f no sngle
Apposton party or entty has $een a$le to !aptalse e,e!tvely on that fall
n ele!toral ter#s& Uva, wth ts 4oneragala 7str!t that strongly favours
the 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton, wll therefore prove another #portant test&
0edefnng v!tory
'hs s where the Apposton advantage les, strategsts n that !a#p
$eleve, as #any Apposton partes loo%
ahead to 201/ and the prospe!t of a !o##on
platfor# on wh!h to fa!e o, aganst the
0a1apa%sa 1uggernaut& 'o pull o, a v!tory n
the +rovn!e, espe!ally for the #an
Apposton U9+ !ontestng as a sngle entty,
wll prove an uphll $attle& 'he Apposton wll
therefore see% to use nu#$ers to redefne
the ter#s of v!tory& .ontestng separately for
a share of the votes n 4oneragala and
8adulla, the Apposton partes wll strve
rather to $rea% U+5A votes, erode the
3overn#ents popular support and redu!e ts
#a1orty n the !oun!l& Any redu!ton n U+5A
support wll n?!t da#age upon the reg#es
psy!he, espe!ally wth a 0a1apa%sa fa#ly
#e#$er !ontestng for the provn!al top slot&
-n these very early days, the Apposton
appears to have ganed early #o#entu#&
'he 3overn#ent has #ade fatal errors n the
re!ent past that wll #ost !ertanly #pa!t ther ele!toral fortunes& (#aller
Apposton partes l%e the BC+ and the (arath 5onse%a-led 7e#o!rat! +arty
are dsplayng a wllngness to $e s!athngly !rt!al of the reg#e n general
and the rulng dynasty n part!ular& And the U9+ played o,ensve for the
frst t#e n years, very early nto the Uva !a#pagn, $y !hoosng to feld
one of ts #ost popular young +arla#entarans as ts !hef #nsteral
hopeful n the +rovn!e&
6arn 5ernando, the >=-year-old 4+ halng fro# the 8adulla 7str!t,
resgned fro# +arla#ent ths wee% to lead the U9+s Uva ele!ton
!a#pagn& 5ernando s a largely-untested polt!an, wth sgnf!ant support
n the 8adulla 7str!t and a !ru!al a$lty to !onne!t n language and do#
wth a rural ele!torate& 'hus far the U9+ has !ontested su!!essve
provn!al ele!tons $y pttng largely-un%nown fa!es aganst a U+5A
!a#pagn run essentally $y +resdent 0a1apa%sa&
'he U+5A !a#pagn at every provn!al ele!ton has $een :untessentally
natonal, wth the +resdent runnng the show& Aganst the #ght of hs
popularty and !har#, the U9+ has $een woefully la!%ng n star power
!anddates that !an also !onne!t on the natonal level& @very atte#pt to
!onvn!e U9+ +arla#entarans to :ut and ta%e a ga#$le n the provn!es
has proved an a$ys#al falure so far& +erhaps 5ernandos youth allowed h#
to ta%e that rs%, despte ntal hestaton and the hgh sta%es nvolved, $ut
hs entry has already $reathed lfe nto the U9+s Uva !a#pagn&
Autsde +arla#ent on 'uesday, 5ernandos arrval to tender hs resgnaton
to the (e!retary 3eneral of +arla#ent was heralded $y large 1u$lant
!rowds& )%e a !on:uerng hero, the young 4+ was garlanded and !arred
upon the shoulders of hs supporters& -t was energy rarely seen on the
streets durng U9+ events and a good o#en for the #an Apposton party,
wh!h has had serous pro$le#s energsng ts $ase after a strng of ele!ton
defeats sn!e 2004&
(elf-styled her
U9+ 4+ (a1th +re#adasa, the self-styled her apparent to the +arty
)eadershp, proved h#self une:ual to the sa#e tas% only fve #onths ago&
8rstlng wth arrogan!e when he was thrown a !hallenge to lead the U9+
(outhern +rovn!al ele!ton !a#pagn as ts .hef 4nster !anddate,
+re#adasa !la#ed that the people wanted h# to $e presdent and not
!hef #nster& (hortly $efore 5ernando rose to present hs resgnaton
spee!h n +arla#ent on 'uesday, +re#adasa left the !ha#$er& +re#adasa-
frendly #eda outfts have already !o##en!ed a !a#pagn aganst
5ernando& U9+ nsders are fearful that +re#adasa wll stay on the sdelnes
of the Uva !a#pagn, fuellng fears a#ong the party ran% and fle that the
#an Apposton re#ans dvded and n dsarray&
5or all hs !la#s to the U9+ leadershp,
0anasnghe +re#adasas son has never $een
tested and #ost unl%e hs father, he s no
polt!al rs%-ta%er& +re#adasa Br&, who has
$een relegated to the sdelnes of the U9+
on!e #ore, sn!e he refused a seat on the
)eadershp .oun!l last year, see%s the
leadershp of hs party $y default& Dounger
!ontenders l%e 6arn 5ernando are already
provng they are ready to fght for t& 7espte
hs la!% of presdental parentage and hs
untested :ualty then, 5ernando s already
provng, n every way, to $e the $etter #an&
@ven f he loses ths $attle for the !hef
#nstershp, he would have fought and lost
aganst a 0a1apa%sa fa#ly #e#$er, and the
U9+ wll hope the defeat !o#es after a good
fght and at the e"pense of rulng fa#ly
popularty& 9otwthstandng the result,
therefore, 5ernando has already won
so#ethng $y showng h#self to $e a
polt!an wllng to #a%e personal sa!rf!es
to gve hs party a fghtng !han!e&
0anasnghe +re#adasa showed ths sa#e
:ualty for #any years, least !hershed $y hs
party leader who favoured the A"$rdge
edu!ated Athulath#udal-7ssanaya%e duo, always on the sdelnes, never
!onsdered a future leader of the eltst Un!le-9ephew party& +resdent
+re#adasas su!!ess was hs unsha%a$le loyalty to the U9+, even when the
leadershp was algned aganst h#, wh!h !e#ented hs !redentals n later
years as an out-and-out party #an&
5ernando s not $eloved of the U9+ leadershp, wh!h #ay not ne!essarly
$eleve h# to $e the future of the party& @nough #e#$ers of the U9+
re#an s!ept!al of hs a$lty and loyalty& Det he has answered #any !rt!s
wth ths #ove, and f he puts up a serous fght n Uva, 5ernando would
have earned the rght to $e !onsdered as a !red$le #e#$er of the U9+s
se!ond ter leadershp, %no!%ng even the l%es of +re#adasa out of the
runnng&
6arn 5ernando has a great deal to prove& 6e has already shown the hunger
and polt!al drve to do so& Auto#at!ally, party senors feel, ths propels
h# to the top of e#ergng U9+ leaders& .on!erns re#an a$out hs
allegan!es and la!% of e"peren!e, and these are fears 5ernando wll need
to put to rest as he %!%s o, the ele!ton !a#pagn for hs party& A pol!y of
runnng wth the hare and huntng wth the hounds wll serously $a!%fre on
the young polt!an and erode hs !red$lty&
'he #eteor! rse of BC+ )eader Anura Eu#ara 7ssanaya%e n re!ent t#es
has $een due n large part to hs fearless and s!athng !rt!s# of the rulng
fa#ly, prevously !onsdered untou!ha$le even a#ong polt!al opponents&
7ssanaya%e has flled a long-e"stent polt!al va!uu# $y ln%ng
!orrupton, #s#anage#ent and $ad governan!e to the heart of the
reg#e, so#ethng the U9+ has !onsstently faled to do&
(erous !ho!es for U9+
-f the +re#adasa fa!ton stays out of the Uva fray, the U9+ wll have serous
!ho!es to #a%e loo%ng ahead to the presdental ele!ton& 'he 6a#$antota
4+s a$sen!e wll !e#ent per!eptons a$out !ontnung U9+ fra!tousness
and nternal !haos, ensurng the party does not see a sgnf!ant upswng of
support fro# voters desperately see%ng an alternatve&
7espte the relu!tan!e of ts leadershp, therefore, the U9+ #ay fnd tself
fa!ng a #a1or de!son a$out the !o##on oppostonal platfor#& As the
largest polt!al party n Apposton, the U9+ would prefer to d!tate the
ter#s of ths platfor#, and feld ts own !anddate at the presdental poll&
Det, f there s no vs$le swng towards the U9+ as an alternatve to
0a1apa%sa rule, the Apposton party wll fnd ts !ho!es l#ted to
!ontestng ndependently to fa!e !ertan defeat or 1onng an allan!e to
gve tself a fghtng !han!e&
+resdental !ontests are natonal ele!tons, when the $ehavour of the
ele!torate drast!ally d,ers to provn!al or lo!al !ontests& 3uaranteed a
#a1or !hun% of the #norty vote and wth n!u#$en!y fatgue settng n, an
Apposton allan!e #ay prove the $est hope of any party n Apposton&
5or the 3overn#ents part, t has had an early set$a!% wth de!sons $y
W#al Weerawansas 955 and the 4usl# partes wthn the allan!e to
!ontest ndependently at the Uva ele!ton& Undou$tedly, $oth these groups
wll ult#ately e"tend support to the U+5A to for# a provn!al govern#ent
n Uva& 8ut ther #andates wll $e separate and won on platfor#s that wll
#ost !ertanly $e vehe#ently ant-3overn#ent&
'he Aluthga#a e,e!t
'he 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton !an gve tself a hearty pat on the $a!% for
a,e!tng the reunon of (r )an%a 4usl# .ongress )eader 0au, 6a%ee#
and All .eylon 4usl# .ongress )eader 0shard 8athudeen, $oth 4nsters
n the present .a$net& 6a%ee# and 8athudeen have $een ar!h rvals sn!e
the latter allegedly spearheaded the lea% of a slea*y se" s!andal n
!olla$oraton wth the U+5A under the Eu#aratunga reg#e n 4ay 2004&
8athudeen and four others :ut the ()4. wh!h was then alled to the
Unted 9atonal +arty and re#aned n Apposton after the Aprl 2004
+arla#entary ele!ton, and allegedly engaged n a $d to oust the ()4.
)eader and for!e the 4usl# party to 1on the 3overn#ent& 'he s!andal
too% a dra#at! turn the followng year when a wo#an set herself alght n
the ()4.s )eaders !o#pound& Whle 6a%ee# has always $een an
un!o#forta$le #e#$er of the 0a1apa%sa .a$net, 8athudeen has $een a
fr# +resdental loyalst&
'he events n Aluthga#a on 1/ Bune appear to have !hanged all of that&
'he two 4nsters too% the +resdent on dre!tly at .a$net #eetngs soon
after the ant-4usl# rots n the regon and now, for the frst t#e n a
de!ade, 6a%ee# and 8athudeen have 1oned for!es to !ontest the Uva
provn!al poll, str%ng a #assve $low to the rulng !oalton n the 8adulla
7str!t&
'he regon has seen an upsurge of relgous tenson n re!ent t#es, wth
8uddhst hardlne groups allyng aganst the 4usl# populaton n 8adulla
town& 6a%ee# and 8athudeen wll !a#pagn for the votes of those
!on!erned 4usl# voters and to do so, t wll !a#pagn $latantly aganst the
0a1apa%sa reg#e and the (nhala 8uddhst hardlne groups that have
#ushroo#ed under ths reg#e and appear to en1oy !onsdera$le #punty
to !arry out vendettas aganst #norty relgous !o##untes&
'he develop#ent follows U+5A fortunes that are already dented n the
8adulla 7str!t, $ut the 3overn#ent has no one to $la#e $ut tself for the
stuaton& (yste#at!ally, the 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton has alenated the
4usl# !o##unty to su!h a dstressng degree that no 4usl# polt!an
!an hope to wn support wthout !onde#nng and !rt!sng the reg#e&
Under the !r!u#stan!es, +resdent 0a1apa%sa wll have to throw hs
3overn#ents full weght $ehnd hs nephew (hasheendra and !a#pagn
furously to n!rease hs advantage n 4oneragala&
-n every way therefore, the Uva poll s a hgh sta%es ga#e& 'here wll $e no
other ele!toral lt#us test $efore +resdent 0a1apa%sa laun!hes hs re-
ele!ton $d, unless he announ!es a general ele!ton frst& 'he e"stental
!hallenge that the 0a1apa%sa ele!toral gant F even n ts slghtly #ore
unpopular for# F poses to the Apposton partes #ay propel the# to see%
out an allan!e ahead of the natonal ele!tons& Det for +resdent 0a1apa%sa,
a de!son on whether to !all the snap ele!ton #ay even !o#e to rest upon
the Uva result& Astrolog!al !o#pulsons asde, hs 3overn#ents ele!toral
showng n Uva-Wellassa on 21 (epte#$er #ay $e the one thng standng
$etween an early 201/ presdental fght or holdng on for one #ore year&
Uva-Wellassa, the land of one hundred thousand paddy felds, wll go to
the polls to ele!t ts provn!al representatves for the s"th t#e a$out s"
wee%s fro# now& 'he $order $etween (r )an%as $eautful !entral hlls
regon and ts dry *one runs through the Uva +rovn!e, #a%ng the two
dstr!ts t s ho#e to as d,erent as nght and day&
-t was long-ordaned that the Uva +rovn!al .oun!l ele!ton would $e an #portant forerunner to a
#u!h $gger ele!toral !ontest s!heduled for early 201/& (taggered provn!al
and lo!al govern#ent polls have $een the preferen!e of the 0a1apa%sa
Ad#nstraton sn!e t assu#ed o2!e& Untl the year 2004, all nne
provn!al ele!tons were held on the sa#e date& 'hs has always $een the
#ore !ost e,e!tve, ad#nstratvely e2!ent way, yet the staggered
ele!tons o,er other, #ore #portant advantages, espe!ally for the rulng
!oalton&
(taggered ele!tons allow the 3overn#ent to fo!us ts !onsdera$le
resour!es n the targeted regons, and +resdent 4ahnda 0a1apa%sa who s
nevta$ly the fa!e of ea!h U+5A !a#pagn has !onsdera$le t#e to
thoroughly wor% a !a#pagn tral& )ately, under the 3overn#ents #ega
develop#ent drve, large nfrastru!ture pro1e!ts are fast-tra!%ed or at the
very least ther openngs strateg!ally t#ed to #a"#se the U+5As
advantage ahead of a provn!al ele!ton&
-n the nne years of 0a1apa%sa regn, Uva-Wellassa has re#aned one of the
poorest regons n the !ountry, wth the e"!epton of the e#$attled north
and east& 6u#an 7evelop#ent -nd!ators n 8adulla are part!ularly poor&
)arge plantaton !o##untes n the hll dstr!t lvng n poor !ondtons on
paltry wages have !ontr$uted to these ratngs&
5or de!ades, the #ost rural and re#ote vllages of 4oneragala and
(ya#$alanduwa #ost !losely rese#$led the re#otest !orners of the
9orthern +rovn!e, ther untou!hed :ualty #"ng wth a$1e!t poverty and
na!!ess$lty& A!!ess$lty has #proved $y leaps and $ounds n vrtually
every provn!e n the !ountry, as a !onse:uen!e of the 3overn#ents pet
roadways pro1e!ts& 8ut Uva-Wellassa re#ans a vulnera$le regon, wth hgh
poverty rates that are rpe for polt!al e"plotaton and vote-$uyng through
handouts and ele!ton pro#ses&
'he 4oneragala advantage
6stor!ally, the 4oneragala 7str!t n part!ular has $een a good perfor#er
for the U+5A and +resdent 0a1apa%sa& -n the 2011 lo!al !oun!l ele!tons n
Uva, the rulng !oalton polled 1ust over ;0< n 4oneragala and #anaged
71< n (ya#$alanduwa& -t dd less well n 8adulla, a dstr!t wth large
#norty !o##untes, pollng =>< to wn the 8adulla 4un!pal .oun!l
wth 10 seats& -n the 2010 presdental ele!ton, +resdent 0a1apa%sa polled
nearly 70< n the 4oneragala 7str!t, whle the result n the 8adulla
7str!t was a #u!h $etter re?e!ton of the naton-wde vote wth /><& -n
the fnal all sland result, +resdent 0a1apa%sa polled /7<, $eatng hs #an
opponent and for#er Ar#y .hef (arath 5onse%a $y 17 per!entage ponts
to !ln!h a se!ond ter#&
-n lght of these fgures, the reallo!aton of seats for the Uva +rovn!al
.oun!l, $y redu!ng the nu#$er of ele!ted representatves fro# the
8adulla 7str!t, and n!reasng the nu#$er n 4oneragala $ased on land
#ass, #a%es perfe!t polt!al sense& 'he rulng allan!e wll have to
opt#se ts advantage n the 4oneragala 7str!t, wh!h t should !arry
!o#forta$ly n the 20 (epte#$er ele!ton, n order to ensure t !an hold the
Uva +. wth a de!ent #a1orty& 'he reallo!aton, te!hn!ally perfor#ed $y
the 1oval @le!tons .hef 4ahnda 7eshaprya, had one #a1or dsadvantage&
-t e"posed the 0a1apa%sa reg#es vulnera$lty n 8adulla early nto ths
ele!ton season& -t s an #portant wea%ness, one that the Ad#nstraton
wll have to fa!tor n repeatedly as t !onte#plates ts presdental ele!ton
fortunes n 201/&
Where large #norty populatons e"st, even n areas of the south,
+resdent 0a1apa%sa wll $e ele!torally vulnera$le& -n ea!h of these regons,
the 3overn#ent wll need a !ounter-strategy to #tgate those potental
losses& -n a far presdental !ontest, t s pra!t!ally a foregone !on!luson
that the 0a1apa%sa ad#nstraton wll lose vast swathes of the north and
east& 'he 'a#l populaton wll vote ada#antly aganst the +resdent and n
favour of the '9A !anddate& 'he reg#es syste#at! alenaton of the
4usl# populaton a!ross the sland wll harden postons n large 4usl#
settle#ents n the east, ensurng those votes too, go to an Apposton
!anddate&
-n the south, therefore, the U+5A wll have ts wor% !ut out tryng to $rdge
those losses wth n!reased support n regons where (nhalese voters are n
the #a1orty& Already, the Western and (outhern polls have nd!ated that
the 3overn#ents support $ase s fnally n de!lne, even f no sngle
Apposton party or entty has $een a$le to !aptalse e,e!tvely on that fall
n ele!toral ter#s& Uva, wth ts 4oneragala 7str!t that strongly favours
the 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton, wll therefore prove another #portant test&
0edefnng v!tory
'hs s where the Apposton advantage les, strategsts n that !a#p
$eleve, as #any Apposton partes loo% ahead to 201/ and the prospe!t of
a !o##on platfor# on wh!h to fa!e o, aganst the 0a1apa%sa 1uggernaut&
'o pull o, a v!tory n the +rovn!e, espe!ally for the #an Apposton U9+
!ontestng as a sngle entty, wll prove an uphll $attle& 'he Apposton wll
therefore see% to use nu#$ers to redefne the ter#s of v!tory& .ontestng
separately for a share of the votes n 4oneragala and 8adulla, the
Apposton partes wll strve rather to $rea% U+5A votes, erode the
3overn#ents popular support and redu!e ts #a1orty n the !oun!l& Any
redu!ton n U+5A support wll n?!t da#age upon the reg#es psy!he,
espe!ally wth a 0a1apa%sa fa#ly #e#$er !ontestng for the provn!al top
slot&
-n these very early days, the Apposton appears to have ganed early
#o#entu#& 'he 3overn#ent has #ade fatal errors n the re!ent past that
wll #ost !ertanly #pa!t ther ele!toral fortunes& (#aller Apposton
partes l%e the BC+ and the (arath 5onse%a-led 7e#o!rat! +arty are
dsplayng a wllngness to $e s!athngly !rt!al of the reg#e n general
and the rulng dynasty n part!ular& And the U9+ played o,ensve for the
frst t#e n years, very early nto the Uva !a#pagn, $y !hoosng to feld
one of ts #ost popular young +arla#entarans as ts !hef #nsteral
hopeful n the +rovn!e&
6arn 5ernando, the >=-year-old 4+ halng fro# the 8adulla 7str!t,
resgned fro# +arla#ent ths wee% to lead the U9+s Uva ele!ton
!a#pagn& 5ernando s a largely-untested polt!an, wth sgnf!ant support
n the 8adulla 7str!t and a !ru!al a$lty to !onne!t n language and do#
wth a rural ele!torate& 'hus far the U9+ has !ontested su!!essve
provn!al ele!tons $y pttng largely-un%nown fa!es aganst a U+5A
!a#pagn run essentally $y +resdent 0a1apa%sa&
'he U+5A !a#pagn at every provn!al ele!ton has $een :untessentally
natonal, wth the +resdent runnng the show& Aganst the #ght of hs
popularty and !har#, the U9+ has $een woefully la!%ng n star power
!anddates that !an also !onne!t on the natonal level& @very atte#pt to
!onvn!e U9+ +arla#entarans to :ut and ta%e a ga#$le n the provn!es
has proved an a$ys#al falure so far& +erhaps 5ernandos youth allowed h#
to ta%e that rs%, despte ntal hestaton and the hgh sta%es nvolved, $ut
hs entry has already $reathed lfe nto the U9+s Uva !a#pagn&
Autsde +arla#ent on 'uesday, 5ernandos arrval to tender hs resgnaton
to the (e!retary 3eneral of +arla#ent was heralded $y large 1u$lant
!rowds& )%e a !on:uerng hero, the young 4+ was garlanded and !arred
upon the shoulders of hs supporters& -t was energy rarely seen on the
streets durng U9+ events and a good o#en for the #an Apposton party,
wh!h has had serous pro$le#s energsng ts $ase after a strng of ele!ton
defeats sn!e 2004&
(elf-styled her
U9+ 4+ (a1th +re#adasa, the self-styled her apparent to the +arty
)eadershp, proved h#self une:ual to the sa#e tas% only fve #onths ago&
8rstlng wth arrogan!e when he was thrown a !hallenge to lead the U9+
(outhern +rovn!al ele!ton !a#pagn as ts .hef 4nster !anddate,
+re#adasa !la#ed that the people wanted h# to $e presdent and not
!hef #nster& (hortly $efore 5ernando rose to present hs resgnaton
spee!h n +arla#ent on 'uesday, +re#adasa left the !ha#$er& +re#adasa-
frendly #eda outfts have already !o##en!ed a !a#pagn aganst
5ernando& U9+ nsders are fearful that +re#adasa wll stay on the sdelnes
of the Uva !a#pagn, fuellng fears a#ong the party ran% and fle that the
#an Apposton re#ans dvded and n dsarray&
5or all hs !la#s to the U9+ leadershp, 0anasnghe +re#adasas son has
never $een tested and #ost unl%e hs father, he s no polt!al rs%-ta%er&
+re#adasa Br&, who has $een relegated to the sdelnes of the U9+ on!e
#ore, sn!e he refused a seat on the )eadershp .oun!l last year, see%s the
leadershp of hs party $y default& Dounger !ontenders l%e 6arn 5ernando
are already provng they are ready to fght for t& 7espte hs la!% of
presdental parentage and hs untested :ualty then, 5ernando s already
provng, n every way, to $e the $etter #an&
@ven f he loses ths $attle for the !hef #nstershp, he would have fought
and lost aganst a 0a1apa%sa fa#ly #e#$er, and the U9+ wll hope the
defeat !o#es after a good fght and at the e"pense of rulng fa#ly
popularty& 9otwthstandng the result, therefore, 5ernando has already won
so#ethng $y showng h#self to $e a polt!an wllng to #a%e personal
sa!rf!es to gve hs party a fghtng !han!e&
0anasnghe +re#adasa showed ths sa#e :ualty for #any years, least
!hershed $y hs party leader who favoured the A"$rdge edu!ated
Athulath#udal-7ssanaya%e duo, always on the sdelnes, never !onsdered
a future leader of the eltst Un!le-9ephew party& +resdent +re#adasas
su!!ess was hs unsha%a$le loyalty to the U9+, even when the leadershp
was algned aganst h#, wh!h !e#ented hs !redentals n later years as
an out-and-out party #an&
5ernando s not $eloved of the U9+ leadershp, wh!h #ay not ne!essarly
$eleve h# to $e the future of the party& @nough #e#$ers of the U9+
re#an s!ept!al of hs a$lty and loyalty& Det he has answered #any !rt!s
wth ths #ove, and f he puts up a serous fght n Uva, 5ernando would
have earned the rght to $e !onsdered as a !red$le #e#$er of the U9+s
se!ond ter leadershp, %no!%ng even the l%es of +re#adasa out of the
runnng&
6arn 5ernando has a great deal to prove& 6e has already shown the hunger
and polt!al drve to do so& Auto#at!ally, party senors feel, ths propels
h# to the top of e#ergng U9+ leaders& .on!erns re#an a$out hs
allegan!es and la!% of e"peren!e, and these are fears 5ernando wll need
to put to rest as he %!%s o, the ele!ton !a#pagn for hs party& A pol!y of
runnng wth the hare and huntng wth the hounds wll serously $a!%fre on
the young polt!an and erode hs !red$lty&
'he #eteor! rse of BC+ )eader Anura Eu#ara 7ssanaya%e n re!ent t#es
has $een due n large part to hs fearless and s!athng !rt!s# of the rulng
fa#ly, prevously !onsdered untou!ha$le even a#ong polt!al opponents&
7ssanaya%e has flled a long-e"stent polt!al va!uu# $y ln%ng
!orrupton, #s#anage#ent and $ad governan!e to the heart of the
reg#e, so#ethng the U9+ has !onsstently faled to do&
(erous !ho!es for U9+
-f the +re#adasa fa!ton stays out of the Uva fray, the U9+ wll have serous
!ho!es to #a%e loo%ng ahead to the presdental ele!ton& 'he 6a#$antota
4+s a$sen!e wll !e#ent per!eptons a$out !ontnung U9+ fra!tousness
and nternal !haos, ensurng the party does not see a sgnf!ant upswng of
support fro# voters desperately see%ng an alternatve&
7espte the relu!tan!e of ts leadershp, therefore, the U9+ #ay fnd tself
fa!ng a #a1or de!son a$out the !o##on oppostonal platfor#& As the
largest polt!al party n Apposton, the U9+ would prefer to d!tate the
ter#s of ths platfor#, and feld ts own !anddate at the presdental poll&
Det, f there s no vs$le swng towards the U9+ as an alternatve to
0a1apa%sa rule, the Apposton party wll fnd ts !ho!es l#ted to
!ontestng ndependently to fa!e !ertan defeat or 1onng an allan!e to
gve tself a fghtng !han!e&
+resdental !ontests are natonal ele!tons, when the $ehavour of the
ele!torate drast!ally d,ers to provn!al or lo!al !ontests& 3uaranteed a
#a1or !hun% of the #norty vote and wth n!u#$en!y fatgue settng n, an
Apposton allan!e #ay prove the $est hope of any party n Apposton&
5or the 3overn#ents part, t has had an early set$a!% wth de!sons $y
W#al Weerawansas 955 and the 4usl# partes wthn the allan!e to
!ontest ndependently at the Uva ele!ton& Undou$tedly, $oth these groups
wll ult#ately e"tend support to the U+5A to for# a provn!al govern#ent
n Uva& 8ut ther #andates wll $e separate and won on platfor#s that wll
#ost !ertanly $e vehe#ently ant-3overn#ent&
'he Aluthga#a e,e!t
'he 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton !an gve tself a hearty pat on the $a!% for
a,e!tng the reunon of (r )an%a 4usl# .ongress )eader 0au, 6a%ee#
and All .eylon 4usl# .ongress )eader 0shard 8athudeen, $oth 4nsters
n the present .a$net& 6a%ee# and 8athudeen have $een ar!h rvals sn!e
the latter allegedly spearheaded the lea% of a slea*y se" s!andal n
!olla$oraton wth the U+5A under the Eu#aratunga reg#e n 4ay 2004&
8athudeen and four others :ut the ()4. wh!h was then alled to the
Unted 9atonal +arty and re#aned n Apposton after the Aprl 2004
+arla#entary ele!ton, and allegedly engaged n a $d to oust the ()4.
)eader and for!e the 4usl# party to 1on the 3overn#ent& 'he s!andal
too% a dra#at! turn the followng year when a wo#an set herself alght n
the ()4.s )eaders !o#pound& Whle 6a%ee# has always $een an
un!o#forta$le #e#$er of the 0a1apa%sa .a$net, 8athudeen has $een a
fr# +resdental loyalst&
'he events n Aluthga#a on 1/ Bune appear to have !hanged all of that&
'he two 4nsters too% the +resdent on dre!tly at .a$net #eetngs soon
after the ant-4usl# rots n the regon and now, for the frst t#e n a
de!ade, 6a%ee# and 8athudeen have 1oned for!es to !ontest the Uva
provn!al poll, str%ng a #assve $low to the rulng !oalton n the 8adulla
7str!t&
'he regon has seen an upsurge of relgous tenson n re!ent t#es, wth
8uddhst hardlne groups allyng aganst the 4usl# populaton n 8adulla
town& 6a%ee# and 8athudeen wll !a#pagn for the votes of those
!on!erned 4usl# voters and to do so, t wll !a#pagn $latantly aganst the
0a1apa%sa reg#e and the (nhala 8uddhst hardlne groups that have
#ushroo#ed under ths reg#e and appear to en1oy !onsdera$le #punty
to !arry out vendettas aganst #norty relgous !o##untes&
'he develop#ent follows U+5A fortunes that are already dented n the
8adulla 7str!t, $ut the 3overn#ent has no one to $la#e $ut tself for the
stuaton& (yste#at!ally, the 0a1apa%sa Ad#nstraton has alenated the
4usl# !o##unty to su!h a dstressng degree that no 4usl# polt!an
!an hope to wn support wthout !onde#nng and !rt!sng the reg#e&
Under the !r!u#stan!es, +resdent 0a1apa%sa wll have to throw hs
3overn#ents full weght $ehnd hs nephew (hasheendra and !a#pagn
furously to n!rease hs advantage n 4oneragala&
-n every way therefore, the Uva poll s a hgh sta%es ga#e& 'here wll $e no
other ele!toral lt#us test $efore +resdent 0a1apa%sa laun!hes hs re-
ele!ton $d, unless he announ!es a general ele!ton frst& 'he e"stental
!hallenge that the 0a1apa%sa ele!toral gant F even n ts slghtly #ore
unpopular for# F poses to the Apposton partes #ay propel the# to see%
out an allan!e ahead of the natonal ele!tons& Det for +resdent 0a1apa%sa,
a de!son on whether to !all the snap ele!ton #ay even !o#e to rest upon
the Uva result& Astrolog!al !o#pulsons asde, hs 3overn#ents ele!toral
showng n Uva-Wellassa on 21 (epte#$er #ay $e the one thng standng
$etween an early 201/ presdental fght or holdng on for one #ore year&