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Probability and Statistics Chapter 1

Probability and Statistics Chapter 1

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Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Statistics

Natalia Tchetcherina

January 26, 28

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Categorical data

Numerical data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Statistics.

Statistics as a subject provides a body of principles and

methodology for designing the process of data collection,

summarizing and interpreting the data, and drawing conclusions or

generalities.

Examples.

Employment. Monthly, as part of the Current Population Survey,

the Bureau of Census collects information about employment

status from a sample of about 65,000 households. Households are

contacted on a rotating basis with three-fourths of the sample

remaining the same for any two consecutive months.

The survey data are analyzed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

which reports monthly unemployment rates.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Statistics.

Examples.

Gallup Poll. This, the best known of the national polls, produces

estimates of the percentage of popular vote for each candidate

based on interviews with a minimum of 1500 adults. Beginning

several months before the presidential election, results are regularly

published. These reports help predict winners and track changes in

voter preferences.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Statistics.

Examples.

Making in medical research studies. Heart decease is the most

common cause of death in the industrialized nations. In the US

and Canada nearly 30 % of deaths each year are due to heart

deceases, mainly heart attack. Does regular aspirin intake reduces

deaths from heart attacks? The Harvard Medical School

conducted a landmark study to investigate. The people

participating in the study regularly took either aspirin or placibo (a

tablet with no active ingredient). Of those who took aspirin 0.9%

suffered heart attacks during the study. Of those who took placibo

1.7 % had heart attacks. Could we conclude that its beneficial for

people to take aspirin?

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Population is a well-defined collection of objects or subjects.

Studies involve the investigation of certain characteristic(s) of

members (called units) of population(s).

I

be produced). Characteristic: Proportion of defectives.

2013-14 academic year. Characteristics: Favorite type of

music; Political affiliation.

effectiveness.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

In most examples considered above, the characteristics we

considered are quantities that can be measured and expressed as

numbers, e.g. thermal expansion of a metal, hardness of cement,

mercury concentration. Such characteristics are called

quantitative.

Examples of non-quantitative characteristics are gender, make of

car, eye color, strength category, political affiliation. Such

characteristics are called categorical or qualitative.

Because statistical procedures are applied to numerical data sets,

the categories in categorical characteristic are labeled with

arbitrarily chosen numbers (i.e. male= 1, female= +1).

A characteristic expressed as a number is called a variable.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Types of Variables

race, gender.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Branches of statistics.

prominent features of data.

in data (making conclusion).

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical data

Numerical data.

When the characteristic under study concerns a qualitative trait

that is only classified in categories and not numerically measured,

the resulting data are called categorical data.

Examples.

I

Blood type:O, A, B, AB

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical data

Numerical data.

If the characteristic is measured on a numerical scale, the resulting

data consist of a set of numbers and are called measurement data.

We will use the term (numerical) variable to refer to a

characteristic that is measured on a numerical scale.

Examples.

I

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical data

Numerical data.

If the measurement scale is made up of distinct numbers with gaps

in between the variable is called discrete.

Some variables can ideally take any value in an interval. Since the

measurement scale does not have gaps, such variables are called

continuous.

Examples.

I

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Frequency table.

.

Total number of observations

Responses Frequency Relative Frequency

Support

152

152/280 = .543

Neutral

77

77/280 = .275

Oppose

51

51/280 = .182

Total

280

1.000

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Frequency table.

Daily numbers (x) of internet system crashes.

Data: 1,3,1,1,0,1,0,1,1,0,2,2,0,0,0,1,2,1,2,0,0,1,6,4,3,3,1,2,4,0.

Value x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total

Frequency

9

10

5

3

2

0

1

30

Relative Frequency

.300

.333

.167

.100

.067

.000

.033

1.000

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Variable

I

I

Find the minimum and the maximum values in the data set.

Choose intervals or cells of equal length that cover the range

between the minimum and the maximum without overlapping.

These are called class intervals, and their endpoints class

boundaries.

Count the number of observations in the data that belong to

each class interval. The count in each class is the class

frequency or cell frequency.

Calculate the relative frequency of each class by dividing the

class frequency by the total number of observations in the

data:

Natalia Tchetcherina

STAT400.

Chapter

1. Overview and Descriptive Statistics

Class

frequency

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Example.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Example.

Frequency Distribution for Bookstore Sales Data

(left endpoints included, but right endpoints

excluded)

Class Interval

$ 0125

125250

250375

375500

500625

Total

Frequency

5

8

13

11

3

40

Relative Frequency

5/40 = .125

8/40 = .200

13/40 = .325

11/40 = .275

3/40 = .075

1.000

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Categorical Data.

Discrete Data.

Continuous data.

Example.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Consider a population of N units, and let v1 , v2 , . . . , vN denote the

statistical population corresponding to some variable.Then the

population average or population mean, denoted by , is the

arithmetic average of all values in the statistical population. Thus,

N

1 X

vi .

=

N

i=1

randomly selected population unit, then a synonymous terminology

for the population mean is expected value of X , or mean value

of X , and is denoted by X or E (X ).

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

EXAMPLE: In a population of 500 tin plates, the number of plates

with 0, 1 and 2 scratches is N0 = 190, N1 = 160 and

N2 = 150.Thus, in the statistical population v1 , . . . , v500 , 190 vi

equal 0, 160 equal 1, and 150 equal 2.The population mean is

500

1 X

0 N 0 1 N1 2 N2

vi =

+

+

= 0.92

500

500

500

500

i=1

number of scratches, the mean value of X is 0.92. (We write

X = 0.92, or E (X ) = 0.92).

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

If a sample of size n is taken, and x1 , x2 , . . . , xn denote the variable

values of the sample units, then the sample average or sample

mean, denoted by x, is

n

1X

xi

x=

n

i=1

is different from the population mean.

EXAMPLE: If a s.r. sample of n = 100 is taken from the 500 tin

plates, it could be that there are n0 = 40, n1 = 34 and n2 = 26

plates with 0, 1 and 2 scratches.In this case, x = 0.86.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Median

The sample median of a set of n measurements x1 , x2 . . . , xn is the

middle value when the measurements are arranged from smallest

to largest. It is denoted as x

How to compute the median

1. Order the data from smallest to largest.

2. When the number of observations n is ODD the median is

middle observation of the ordered sample.

3. When the number of observations n is EVEN, two

observations from the ordered sample fall in the middle, and

the median is their average.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

observations, whereas the presence of such extremes can have a

considerable effect on the mean. For extremely asymmetrical

distributions, the median is likely to be a more sensible measure of

center than the mean.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Percentiles

The sample 100 p-th percentile is a value such that after the data

are ordered from smallest to largest, at least 100p% of the

observations are at or below this value and at least 100(1 p)%

are at or above this value.

Calculating the Sample 100p-th Percentile.

1. Order the data from smallest to largest.

2. Determine the product (sample size) (proportion) = np.

3. If np is not an integer, round it up to the next integer and

find the corresponding ordered value.

4. If np is an integer, say k, calculate the average of the kth and

(k + 1)st ordered values.

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Sample Quartiles

Second quartile (median) (designated Q2 ) = 50th percentile

Upper (third) quartile (designated Q3 ) = 75th percentile

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Let v1 , v2 , . . . , vN be a statistical population with mean .

DEFINITION: The population variance, 2 , is defined as

2 =

N

1 X

(vi )2 .

N

i=1

The standard

deviation is the positive square root of the

variance: = 2 .

If the rv X denotes a randomly selected value from the statistical

population, then a synonymous terminology for the population

variance is variance of X , and is denoted by X2 , or Var(X ).

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

q

Similarly, the standard deviation of X is X = X2 .

A simpler computational formula for the variance is

2 =

N

1 X 2

vi 2

N

i=1

population v1 , . . . , v500 , has 190 vi equal 0, 160 equal 1, 150 equal

2, and = 0.92.Then,

2 =

+

+

0.922 = 0.6736.

500

500

500

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

If x1 , x2 , . . . , xn denotes a sample from the statistical population,

the sample variance and its computational value are:

X

n 2

n

n

1

1 X

1 X

2

2

2

S =

(xi x) =

xi

xi

.

n1

n1

n

i=1

i=1

i=1

sampling, a sample variance approximates, but in general is

different from the population variance.

EXAMPLE: Consider the s.r. sample of n = 100 tin plates, which

has 40, 34 and 26 plates with 0, 1 and 2 scratches.Then,

1

S 2 = [138 73.96] = 0.647

99

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

(minimum, Q1 , Q2 (median), Q3 , maximum).

Natalia Tchetcherina

Populations and Samples

Random Variables and Statistical Populations

Brunches of statistics.

Types of data.

Describing data by tables and graphs.

Measures of Location

Measures of Variability

Boxplot

Natalia Tchetcherina

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