Introduction to

Transportation

Systems

PART II:

FREIGHT
TRANSPORTATION

Chapter 15:

Railroad Terminals:

P-MAKE Analysis to Predict

Network Performance

Terminals

‹ Terminal performance is a major

determinant of network
performance.

Terminal
Performance

Variability in
Arrival of
Incoming Trains

4
Figure 15.1

Terminal Performance:
Another Look

Performance lower performance

“robust” plan

higher performance
“sensitive” plan

Variability in
Arrival of
Incoming Trains

Performance includes a measure of cost -- if one is

measuring terminal performance not only on
throughput of the terminal but also on the resources
used -- robustness may involve a more
conservative use of resources. It may involve
having redundancy in the system.
5

Figure 15.2
LOS and Routing over the
Rail Network
‹ Level-of-service in rail freight
operations is a function of the number
of intermediate terminals at which a
particular shipment is handled.
‹ Empirical research shows the major
determinant of the LOS is not the
distance between origin and
destination, but rather the numbers of
times the shipment was handled at
intermediate terminals, which is really
an operating decision on the part of the
railroads.
6

Direct Service

A D

Figure 15.3
7

Terminal Operations

Classification Yard

Receiving Classification
Bowl Departure
Yard Yard
Inbound Hump Outbound
Train Train

A P-MAKE Function

f (AVAIL)

P-MAKE

2 hr 8 hr 12 hr AVAIL

Available time in terminal

in hours (AVAIL)
9

Figure 15.5

Average Yard Time

Now, average yard time -- E(YT) -- will be a

function of the available time (AVAIL) to make
that connection. In this model, E(YT) -- the
average yard time -- will have two components
-- the time spent in the yard if the connection is
made, in which case, with probability P-MAKE,
the terminal time is AVAIL. With probability
(1 - P-MAKE), the car will spend (AVAIL + the
time until the next possible train).

E(YT) = P-MAKE * (AVAIL)

+ (1 - P-MAKE) * (AVAIL + time until next

possible train)

10

E(YT)
for a given
P-MAKE
function

“sweet spot”

AVAIL

We can calibrate these curves and

calculate an “optimal” AVAIL for the

particular terminal.

11

Figure 15.6

Origin-Destination
Performance

A 12 hrs. B 12 hrs. C 12 hrs. D

Origin Destination

12

Figure 15.7
P-MAKE Functions

f (AVAIL)
more less
efficient efficient
terminal terminal

AVAIL

13

Figure 15.8
Another P-MAKE Function

ƒ (AVAIL)

1.0
0.9

8 AVAIL 32

14

Figure 15.9

 Missed
Yard Time (for

Connection
Probability
AVAIL = 8

for both yards)

0
[f(AVAIL)]2 16

1
2 f(AVAIL)*[1- 40

f(AVAIL)]

2
[1-f(AVAIL)]2 64

15

Total Yard Time as a f(Avail)

Probability AVAIL = 8
0.81
f(AVAIL) = P-MAKE = 0.9

0.18
0.01

Total Yard
16 40 64 Time

Probability
AVAIL = 8
f(AVAIL) = P-MAKE = 0.8
0.64

0.32

0.04

Total Yard
16 40 64 Time

f(AVAIL) = P-MAKE = 0.9

Average O-D Time = 56.8
Variance O-D Time = 103.7

f(AVAIL) = P-MAKE = 0.8

Average O-D Time = 61.6
Variance O-D Time = 184.3
16
Figure 15.10

Available Yard Time

A B C D

17
More Frequent Trains (1)

ƒ (AVAIL)

‹ P-MAKE Function P-Make = 0.9

8 20 AVAIL

Probability ƒ (AVAIL) = P-Make = 0.9

0.81
‹ Total Yard Time Twice daily frequency

0.18
0.01

Total Yard
16 28 40 Time
Average O-D Time = Average Yard Time + 36 = 52.96
Variance O-D Time = 25.91

Figures 15.12, 15.13

18
More Frequent Trains (2)

‹ So, by having trains run twice a

day, the average yard time and
variance of yard time goes down.
‹ This system is a more expensive
system, but provides a better level-
of-service. This is the classic
cost/LOS trade-off [Key Point 14].

19
Bypassing Yards

Total Yard Time with Bypassing One Yard

Probability 0.9

0.1

Total Yard
8 32 Time

20
Figure 15.14