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Lecture 10-1
OUTLINE
Introduction
Factors Impacting Field Labor
Forecasting Tools
Labor Productivity
How Productivity Varies?
How Calibration Curves are
Developed?
Forecasting from Productivity
Profiles
Other Uses of Productivity Profiles
Trend Curves
Forecasting from Trend Curves
Danger of Plotting against Time
Lecture 10-2
Introduction
Lecture 10-3
Lecture 10-4
Forecasting Tools
Lecture 10-5
Example 1:
QAB workhours for installing concrete = 800 workhours
actual workhours = 1000
Productivity (formula 1) = 0.8
Example 2:
Concrete activity is 32% complete
40% of QAB workhours expanded (used)
Productivity (formula 2) to the QAB base = 0.8
Example 3:
QAB unit rate for pouring concrete foundations = 8 workhours/cu. Yd.
Actual rate = 10 workhours/cu. Yd.
Productivity (formula 3) to the QAB? Base = 0.8
Lecture 10-7
Lecture 10-8
Density of Labor
Supervision
Union negotiations
When all crafts are working in the same area, at the same time, productivity tends to decline.
Good or bad supervision can improve or decline productivity.
Productivity declines during such negotiations.
Disputes and as a result work stoppages can cause significant dip in productivity.
Lecture 10-9
The theoretical or calibration curve shown in figure is for an area where skilled
labor is not readily available and training is required.
In general, in the U.S., the profile is flatter.
It starts at productivities of 0.85 or 0.9 and reach peak between 20 and 30%
complete.
Theoretical profile is obtained by plotting data from several similar past jobs
where the same methods for calculating percent completion has been used.
The theoretical percentage of budget workhours to acehive any given percent
completion can be calculated.
Example using figure 1
At 10% completion, theoretical productivity is 0.7.
Divide % completion (10%) by the productivity (70%) to obtain theoretical budgeted workhours
(14%).
This is theoretical rate of expending QAB workhours.
Lecture 10-10
Lecture 10-11
Solution
Actual
Lecture 10-12
Lecture 10-13
Trend Curves
Using
Productivity
Profile Fig. 1
30% completion Planned
Figure 2
Lecture 10-14
Lecture 10-15
Lecture 10-16
Bad Productivity
Jan
Forecast
Delayed
using 1.53
Corrective
Action Taken
Period Productivity
1.7
27%
70%
46%
55%
Lecture 10-17
Trend Curve
15 days delay
On schedule
Lecture 10-18
Lecture 10-19
If there were no change orders and QAB workhours remained constant, the
1% completion curve (refer lecture related to engineering costs) and
productivity profile plotted against efficiency multiplier will have identical
shapes.
Formulae:
1. Productivity =
% physical completion
% of QAB workhours used
2. Productivity =
% physical completion X QAB workhours
workhours used
3. Productivity =
1/Productivity
4. Efficiency Multiplier = __________workhours used_______
% physical completion X QAB workhours
Lecture 10-20
Lecture 10-21
Lecture 10-22
Example 6: After two months of steady 60-hr weeks, productivity has dropped
by 15%, and by union agreement, double time is paid for overtime. Calculate
percentage cost increase compared to a 40-hr week.
Lecture 10-23
Lecture 10-24
Near the end of a large project or shortly past the midpoint of on a small job, it
becomes possible to forecast labor by crew size and labor rundown curves.
In such cases, field supervisors estimates of crew days required for completion
are usually more accurate than trend or productivity curves.
Such estimation methods are especially useful for small jobs where there has
been no opportunity to collect the data required for more sophisticated tools.
Lecture 10-25
Revised forecast
mid February
Lecture 10-26
At peak workpower,
monthly rate of
progress is same as
that at lower work
power
Lecture 10-27
Average Wage
Lecture 10-28
Summary
Lecture 10-29