TheMultiplicationRuleforIndependentEvents

4/1/2016

TableofContents

TableofContents

Overview

LearningObjectivesandAssessments

Standards

PrerequisiteKnowledge

MathSkills

Vocabulary

Differentiation

IntegrationofOtherContentAreas

InstructionalStrategiestoDifferentiateInstruction

Modifications/Accommodations/Extensions

Materials,Resources,andTechnology

RequiredItems

TechnologyIntegration

SourcesforLessonPlanandResources

TeachingandLearningSequence

Agenda

Sequence

CommonCoreTeachingStandardsandRationales

10

Reflection

13

Overview

TeachersName:NicholasLacasseDateofLesson:4/1/2016

LearningObjectivesandAssessments

Objective:Studentswilllearnaboutthemultiplicationruleforindependentevents.
Assessment:FormativeAssessment
PreAssessment()Formative(X)Summative()

Standards
CommonCoreStateStandards
CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.CP.B.8
(+)ApplythegeneralMultiplicationRuleinauniformprobabilitymodel,P(AandB)=P(A)P(B|A)=
P(B)P(A|B),andinterprettheanswerintermsofthemodel.

Rationale:Thisstandardisappropriateforthislearninggoalbecausethislearninggoalhas
studentslearningthemultiplicationruleforindependenteventsaspecialcaseofthe
multiplicationrule.

PrerequisiteKnowledge

MathSkills
MultiplyingFractions
Convertingbetweenfractions,decimals,andpercentages

CommonMisconception
Studentsmaybelieve,forexample,that5%*3%=15%.Tocounterthis,Iwillneedto
demonstrateitisnotthecaseandinformthemthattosuccessfullycalculatethesevaluesitwill
beeasiertoconvertthemtodecimalsorfractions.Forexample,.05*.03=.0015.

Vocabulary

MutuallyExclusive
1.

Twoeventsaremutuallyexclusiveiftheycannotbothhappenatthesametime.

Differentiation

IntegrationofOtherContentAreas
English:Studentswillbereadingwordproblemsandcommunicatingmathematicstoeachother
astheyworkinteams.
GameTheory:Studentswillworktousetheirunderstandingofprobabilitytodeterminea
strategyforwhentofoulornotfoulabasketballplayerwhentheyreshootingforthreepointsat
thebuzzerandyoureupbytwopoints.

InstructionalStrategiestoDifferentiateInstruction

Content
1.

GeometricProbability

2.

TheBasicCountingPrinciple
a.

3.

Permutations
i.
Combinations
1. CombinatoricsProblemSolving
InclusionExclusionPrincipleExtensionoftheAdditionRule

4.

ConditionalProbability
a.
b.

TheFullMultiplicationRule
TestingforIndependence

Allextensionscanbefoundattheclassroomwikispace.
TheFullMultiplicationRuleismostapplicabletothislesson.

Additionally,learnerswillbeengagedbytheconnectionoftheprobabilitycontenttosportsand
games.

Process
MultipleIntelligences:
Verbal:Therewillbeaverbaldeliveryandexplanationofthemultiplicationrule.Additionally,
studentswillbeworkingintheirtablegroupswheretheycanprocesstheinformationwiththeir
peers.
Logical:Logicallearnerswillappreciate,andmakesenseof,theconnectionofindependentand
dependentvariablestoanindividualsgeographicresidenceandtheirfavoritefootballteam.
Interpersonal:Studentswillbeworkingintheirtablegroupswheretheycanprocessthe
informationwiththeirpeers.

Product

Modifications/Accommodations/Extensions

FromIEPs(IndividualEducationPlan),504s,ELLIDEP(EnglishLanguageLearning
InstructionalDeliveryEducationPlan)
K.D.

S.H.

Specificstructureandroutinesprovided.
Structureandroutineshavebeenestablished.Inparticulartheclassroom
warmuproutine.
Separateworkspaceandsmallgroupsettingprovidedasneeded
K.D.typicallyworkswithasmallgroupofstudents.
Handsoninstructionandactivities.
Regularpractice/reviewofconcepts.
Thewarmupsallowforthepracticeandreviewofconcepts.
Multipleopportunitiestoapplynewconceptsandskills.
Graphicorganizersareprovided.
Specificstructure/formatsprovidedtoassistwithsequencing&organization
Theagenda,writtenontheboardeachclass,helpssupportthestudents
understandingofthedayssequence.
Initialreviewofdirections/expectationsbeforeindependentworkdirectionswrittenout
Instructionsarealwaysgivenverballybeforeindependentpractice.The
directionsarealwayswrittenonworksheets.
Assignmentsbrokenintosmallerstepswithscheduledcheckinbetweencompleted
portions
Integratedintoscreencastprojectwithgraphicorganizerandscript.
Spaceprovidedatfirstsignsoffrustration/anxietyfor510minutes(inclassroom)before
returningtosupportand/orprocesswithKitara.
Focusingstrategiesavailableduringworkperiods
Useofagendatorecordassignments,assistanceprovidedduringguidedstudywith
workcompletion,andtoverifyunderstandingofexpectationswithassignments.
Agendaispostedinclassroomandontheclasswebsite.
Extendedtimeontimedassignments.
Studentcanhaveextratimeontimedassignments,includingtest,through
academicsupport,andtheCenter.
Opportunitytoretakeassessmentsorally.

Strategicseatingtoavoiddistractions
Strategicseatinghasbeenimplemented.
Teacherencouragementandcheckinsforunderstanding
Implementedthroughoutthelesson.
TeacherswillnotifyparentswhentheyseesignsofstudentsOCDintheclassroom,
allowingparentstimetoconferwithmedicalprofessionalsandadjustmedications.
Observationsareongoing.

J.K.

StudentwillbeallowedtocometotheGuidanceOffice,ifheranxietyheightens,as
needed.
Teacherswilltrytoaddressconcernswiththestudentprivately.

Retestingallowed
Extendedtimeontests
AllowedthroughacademicsupportandtheCenter.
Calculatorokontests
Nopenaltyforgrammarorspelling
Breaklargeassignmentsintosmallerparts

PlanforStudentswhoareMissingPrerequisiteSkills:
Anystudentswhoaremissingprerequisiteskillswillbesupportedthroughthelessonwith
guidanceonthoseskills.Theprerequisiteskillsforthislessonare,fortunately,fairlysimple.If
inclassguidanceisinsufficient,thosestudentswillbecontactedinacademicsupport.

Extensions
1.

GeometricProbability

2.

TheBasicCountingPrinciple
a.

3.

Permutations
i.
Combinations
1. CombinatoricsProblemSolving
InclusionExclusionPrincipleExtensionoftheAdditionRule

4.

ConditionalProbability
a.
b.

TheFullMultiplicationRule
TestingforIndependence

Allextensionscanbefoundattheclassroomwikispace.
TheFullMultiplicationRuleismostapplicabletothislesson.

PlanforAccommodatingAbsentStudents
AbsentstudentscanfindmeintheiracademicsupportblockorworkwiththestaffinThe
Center.Iftheseaccommodationsareinsufficient,furtherarrangementswillbemade.

Materials,Resources,andTechnology

RequiredItems

Handouts
MultiplicationRuleHomework
ScreencastProjectGuidelines
ScreencastProjectGraphicOrganizer
ScreencastProjectSampleScript

Technology
Projector
Laptop
StudentiPads
Kahoot!

Other

TechnologyIntegration
Technology:StudentiPads
SAMRLevel:Modification
Rationale:ThestudentiPadsarebeingusedatamodificationlevelinthislessonbecausewe
aregoingtogivethemaquicktestoftheirunderstandingofmutuallyexclusiveontheKahoot!.

SourcesforLessonPlanandResources
KhanAcademyCompoundProbabilityofIndependentEvents(Instructional)
KhanAcademyIndependentProbability(Practice)

TeachingandLearningSequence

Agenda
(theagendatobewrittenonthewhiteboardforthestudents)
1. WarmUp
2. AandB
3. July4th
4. Practice
5. Vocab:MutuallyExclusive
6. ???
7. HW

Goal:IntroduceProject.Learn(partofthe)multiplicationrule.Learnwhatmutuallyexclusive
means.

Sequence
SequenceLength:~65Minutes

1. Warmup(10minutes)
a. Asurveyfound60%ofpeoplelikecarrots,40%ofpeoplelikepotatoes,and30%
ofpeoplelikeboth.Whatistheprobabilitythatapersonselectedatrandomlikes
carrotsorpotatoes?
b. Yourolla4sideddieandflipacoin.Mapthesamplespacebyusingatree
diagram.
2. HomeworkQuestions&Answers(5minutes)
3. ScreencastProjectIntroduction(15minutes)
a. Providebriefoverview.
b. Projecthastwoportions:scriptandrecording.
c. Studentswillreceivefinalrubricandselfchecklist.
4. ProbabilityofAandB.(Themultiplicationruleofindependentevents).(Direct
instruction)(15minutes)
a. Thisisnotthemultiplicationrule.Thisisaspecialcaseofthemultiplicationrule
thatonlyworkswhenthetwoeventsdonotinfluenceeachother.Ifyouwantthe
fullmultiplicationrule,itcanbefoundinourextensionpage.
b. ExampleofWhereThisCANNOTBeUsed:
i.
Apersonisselectedatrandom.50%ofpeoplearefemale.50%ofpeople
haveovaries.Whatistheprobabilitythatapersonselectedatrandomis
femaleandhasovaries?Mostfemaleshaveovaries,soitshouldbeclose
8

5.
6.

7.
8.

to50%.However,bytheruleweregoingtouseitwouldsuggest25%.
Thatsbecausebeingfemaleandhavingovariesarenotindependent
events.Ifyouknowsomeoneisfemale,oryouknowtheyhaveovaries,
youhaveaprettygoodchanceofcorrectlyguessingtheotherone.In
contrastofthat
c. ExampleofIndependentEvents
i.
SupposeIflipacointwice.Thefirsttimeitlandsheads.Doesthat
influencewhatthesecondflipwillland?Absolutelynot.Theresultofone
hasnoimpactontheresultoftheother.Sohereourrulewillwork.
ProbabilityofAandB.(Practice)(10minutes)
Toolkit(10minutes)
a. Vocab:MutuallyExclusive
b. MultiplicationRuleforIndependentEvents
Ifstudentsfinishactivityearlytheycanstartthehomework.
Homework
a. Page539:#5,MultiplicationRuleHomework,ScreencastScript(Duenextclass)

CommonCoreTeachingStandardsandRationales

LearnerDevelopment
Standard#1LearnerDevelopment
Theteacherunderstandshowstudentslearnanddevelop,recognizingthatpatternsoflearning
anddevelopmentvaryindividuallywithinandacrossthecognitive,linguistic,social,emotional,
andphysicalareas,anddesignsandimplementsdevelopmentallyappropriateandchallenging
learningexperiences.
Rationale:Mystudentsdifferinregardstocontentmastery.ForthisreasonIhaveadded
differentiationforcontent.Thereareseveralextensionsavailableforthislessonthatstudentswill
haveaccesstoandtheywillhavechoiceinwhichextensionismoreinterestingtothem.

Standard#2LearningDifferences
Theteacherusesunderstandingofindividualdifferencesanddiverseculturesandcommunities
toensureinclusivelearningenvironmentsthatalloweachlearnertoreachhisorherfull
potential.
Rationale:Ihaveintegratedothercontentareastoassistinthelearningprocessaswellas
motivationforparticipation.Multiplemethodsofprocesssuchasclassdiscussion,andindividual
andgrouppracticeshowsanunderstandingoflearnerdifferencesaimedatfosteringstudent
learning.

Standard#3LearningEnvironments
Theteacherworkswithlearnerstocreateenvironmentsthatsupportindividualandcollaborative
learning,encouragingpositivesocialinteraction,activeengagementinlearning,andself
motivation.
Rationale:Ihaveincludedactivitiesthatplacestudentsinindividual,group,andwholeclass
activitiestoencouragecollaborationandpeersupport.

Content
Standard#4ContentKnowledge
Theteacherunderstandsthecentralconcepts,toolsofinquiry,andstructuresofthediscipline(s)
heorsheteachesandcreateslearningexperiencesthatmaketheseaspectsofthediscipline
accessibleandmeaningfulforlearners.
Rationale:Understandingthecontenthasallowedmetoidentifyprerequisiteskills(suchas
multiplyingfractions),scaffoldcontent,andidentifymisconceptionssotheycanbetargeted
beforetheybecomeaningrainedmisunderstanding.

Standard#5InnovativeApplicationsofContent
Theteacherunderstandshowtoconnectconceptsandusedifferingperspectivestoengage
learnersincritical/creativethinking,andcollaborativeproblemsolvingrelatedtoauthenticlocal
andglobalissues.
Rationale:Inthislessonstudentslearnhowthemultiplicationruleforindependenteventsis
usedfrequentlyintherealworld.Anapplicationmanystudentswillbeparticularlyfamiliarwith
pertainstobasketballstrategy.

10

InstructionalPractice
Standard#6Assessment
Theteacherunderstandsandusesmultiplemethodsofassessmenttoengagelearnersintheirown
growth,todocumentlearnerprogress,andtoguidetheteachersongoingplanningand
instruction.
Rationale:Answeringhomeworkquestionsatthebeginningofthelessonprovidesagood
overviewofstudentsunderstandingofthepreviousclassscontentwhichwillbeused
throughoutthislesson.Theformativeassessmentconductedthroughoutthelessonallowedmeto
gaugestudentunderstandingofpreviouslessonscontent.Inparticular,thisclassIusedClass
Dojototrackmyobservationsofstudents.

Standard#7PlanningforInstruction
Theteacherdrawsuponknowledgeofcontentareas,crossdisciplinaryskills,learners,the
communityandpedagogytoplaninstructionthatsupportseverystudentinmeetingrigorous
learninggoals.
Rationale:Theimplementationofdifferentiationintermsofprocessandcontentis
demonstrationofcompetencyinplanningforinstruction.

Standard#8InstructionalStrategies
Theteacherunderstandsandusesavarietyofinstructionalstrategiestoencouragelearnersto
developdeepunderstandingofcontentareasandtheirconnections,andtobuildskillstoaccess
andappropriatelyapplyinformation.
Rationale:Thislessonwillimplementavarietyofstrategies:teacherled,studentindividual,
classdiscussion,thesocraticmethod,aswellasstrategiesthatarenotimplementedinthe
planningphasebutarepresentintheclassroomsuchascoldcalling,thenooptoutstrategy,
andthePostItstrategyasdescribedinTeachLikeaChampion2.0.

ProfessionalResponsibility
Standard#9ReflectionandContinuousGrowth
Theteacherisareflectivepractitionerwhousesevidencetocontinuallyevaluatehis/herpractice,
particularlytheeffectsofhis/herchoicesandactionsonothers(students,families,andother
professionalsinthelearningcommunity),andadaptspracticetomeettheneedsofeachlearner.
Rationale:Theformativeassessmentattheendofthelessoninformmeontheeffectivenessof
thelesson.Anoverallreflectivecomponentofthelessonisalsointegratedintothelesson
planningdocument.Thisassistsmeinanalyzingwhatwentwellandwhatdidnot.

Standard#10Collaboration
Theteacherseeksappropriateleadershiprolesandopportunitiestotakeresponsibilityforstudent
learning,tocollaboratewithlearners,families,colleagues,otherschoolprofessionals,and
communitymemberstoensurelearnergrowth,andtoadvancetheprofession.
Rationale:Thislessonplanistheresultofcollaborationbetweenprofessionals,directlyand
indirectly.Indirectly,ourcollaborationhasmademeamoreawareeducator,andhasresultsina
significantincreaseinstudentunderstanding.Directly,thecollaborationinvolvedrevisingmy
originallessonplantobettermeettheneedsofstudents.

11

Technology
Standard#11TechnologyStandardsforTeachers(NETST)
EffectiveteachersmodelandapplytheNationalEducationalTechnologyStandardsforStudents
(NETSS)astheydesign,implement,andassesslearningexperiencestoengagestudentsand
improvelearningenrichprofessionalpracticeandprovidepositivemodelsforstudents,
colleagues,andthecommunity.AllteacherswillmeettheNETSTstandardsandperformance
indicators.
Rationale:Thoughnotanexcessivelyovertcomponent,thetechnologyuseinthislesson
demonstratesanabilitytousetechnologyseamlesslytofacilitatethenormalproceduresofthe
classroom.Havingintroducedthescreencastproject,italsodemonstratesanabilitytoimplement
andfacilitatestudentcompletionoftechnologybasedassessments.

12

Reflection

Theprogressinthislessonwasslowedbytheneedtoclarifytheadditionrule.ItseemsI
misunderstoodthedifficultyleveloftheadditionrule.Thisresultedinusmakingitthroughthe
multiplicationruleforindependenteventsbutnotgettingthroughmutualexclusivity.Basedon
thefinalexercise,itseemsthatstudentsacquiredafairgrasponthelesson.Iwillcontinuewith
disjointednessinthenextlesson.
Thingsthatwentwell:
Thefirstwarmup.
Explainingindependence.

Thingsthatdidntgowell:
Studentsnotusingtimeefficiently.
Itriedtobemoreencouragingforbeingtimeefficient.Iputsmallertimelimitson
assignmentsandadheredtothemtosetexpectationsforpaceandstudent
focus.
Needingtopushbackmutualexclusivity.
AftertheHblocklessonIfeelthereasonthishappenedismostlylikelyduetomy
indecisionandinclassdeliberatingregardingwhatstudentsshoulddowiththeir
additionrulehomework.

13

Instructions:Foreachoftheproblemsbelow,determineifwecanuseourmultiplicationrule.If
wecan,useourruletocalculatetheprobability.

1. Acoinisflippedanda20sideddieisrolled.Whatstheprobabilityofgettingatailsand
a15?

2. Acoinisflipped4times,whatstheprobabilityofgettingfourheads?

3. Acoinisflipped100times,whatstheprobabilityofthecoinlandingheadseverytime?

4. NewEnglandcontainsabout4.5%ofthepopulationoftheUnitedStates.Supposethat
3%ofUnitedStatescitizensarefansoftheNewEnglandPatriotsfootballteam.Ifwe
selectacitizenatrandom,whatistheprobabilitytheyrefromNewEnglandandtheyare
aPatriotsfan?

Name:____________________

MultiplicationRule:Homework
1.

2.

3.

4.

Afaircoinistossedtwice.Whatistheprobabilityitlandstailsbothtimes?

Sofar,inthe20152016basketballseason,StephenCurryhasmade90%ofhisfree
throws.Whatstheprobabilityhemakes3freethrowsinarow?

Amachinehasthreeparts(wellcallthemA,B,andC)builtsothatitcancontinue
workingaslongasatleastoneofthemisstillworking.Eachtimethemachinestarts,
thereisa1%chancepartAwillbreak,a5%chancepartBwillbreak,anda3%chance
partCwillbreak.Whatistheprobabilitythatwhenyoustartthemachineitwillbreak
down?

Abusinessloses$50,000worthofmerchandiseiftheylosepower.Becauseofthis,they
haveinvestedinagenerator.Onanygivendaythereisa0.1%chancetheywilllose
power.Whenthishappens,theirgeneratorstartsuptopreventapowerloss.Their
generatorhasa1%chanceoffailure.Onanyday,whatistheprobabilitytheywilllose
theirmainpowerandtheirgeneratorwillbreak?