BAI GIAI

XAC SUAT THONG KE

(GV: Tran Ngoc Hoi 2009)

CHNG 1
LY THUYET XAC SUAT
Bai 1.1: Co ba khau sung I, II va III ban oc lap vao mot muc tieu. Moi
khau ban 1 vien. Xac suat ban trung muc tieu cua ba khau I, II va III lan
lt la 0,7; 0,8 va 0,5. Tnh xac suat e
a) co 1 khau ban trung.
b) co 2 khau ban trung.
c) co 3 khau ban trung.
d) t nhat 1 khau ban trung.
e) khau th 2 ban trung biet rang co 2 khau trung.
Li giai
I
0,7

II
0,8

P(A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P(A 1 )P(A 32 )P(A 3 ) = 0, 3.0, 2.0, 5 = 0, 03.

Suy ra P(A) = 0,22.
b) Goi B la bien co co 2 khau trung. Ta co

Tnh toan tng t cau a) ta c P(B) = 0,47.

c) Goi C la bien co co 3 khau trung. Ta co

C = A1A 2 A 3 .

Tnh toan tng t cau a) ta c P(C) = 0,28.

d) Goi D la bien co co t nhat 1 khau trung. Ta co

D = A + B + C.

Chu y rang do A, B, C xung khac tng oi, nen theo cong thc Cong xac
suat ta co:
P(D) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 0,22 + 0,47 + 0,28 = 0,97.
e) Ga s co 2 khau trung. Khi o bien co B a xay ra. Do o xac suat
e khau th 2 trung trong trng hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien
P(A2/B).
Theo cong thc Nhan xac suat ta co:
P(A2B) = P(B)P(A2/B)
Suy ra

P(A 2 /B) =

III
0,5

Goi Aj (j = 1, 2, 3) la bien co khau th j ban trung. Khi o A1, A2, A3 oc

lap va gia thiet cho ta:

P(A1 ) = 0, 7; P(A1 ) = 0, 3;
P(A 2 ) = 0, 8; P(A 2 ) = 0, 2;
P(A 3 ) = 0, 5; P(A 3 ) = 0, 5.

a) Goi A la bien co co 1 khau trung. Ta co

A = A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3

V cac bien co

P(A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P(A 1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) = 0, 3.0, 8.0, 5 = 0,12;

B = A1A 2 A 3 + A1A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3

NHNG NH LY C BAN TRONG

Tom tat:
Khau sung
Xac suat trung

P(A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P(A 1 )P(A 2 )P(A 3 ) = 0, 7.0, 2.0, 5 = 0, 07;

A1 A 2 A 3 , A1 A 2 A 3 , A1 A 2 A 3 xung khac tng oi, nen

theo cong thc Cong xac suat ta co

P(A) = P(A 1 A 2 A 3 + A 1 A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3 )
= P(A 1 A 2 A 3 ) + P(A 1 A 2 A 3 ) + P(A1 A 2 A 3 )

Ma A 2B = A 1 A 2 A 3 + A 1 A 2 A 3 nen ly luan tng t nh tren ta c

Suy ra P(A2/B) =0,851.

P(A2B)=0,4

Bai 1.2: Co hai hop I va II moi hop cha 10 bi, trong o hop I gom 9 bi
o, 1 bi trang; hop II gom 6 bi o, 4 bi trang. Lay ngau nhien t moi hop
2 bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e c 4 bi o.
b) Tnh xac suat e c 2 bi o va 2 bi trang.
c) Tnh xac suat e c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang.
d) Gia s a lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang. Hay tm xac suat e bi trang
co c cua hop I.

V cac bien co A1, A2, A3 oc lap nen theo cong thc Nhan xac suat ta
co
1

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

P(A 2B)
.
P(B)

Li giai
Goi Ai , Bi (i = 0, 1, 2) lan lt la cac bien co co i bi o va (2 - i) bi
trang co trong 2 bi c chon ra t hop I, hop II.
Khi o
- A0, A1, A2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:

P(A 0 ) = 0;

CC
C
)=CC
C

P(A 1 ) =

9
;
45

36
.
45

10

P(A 2

10

c) Goi C la bien co

chon c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang. Ta co:

C = A1B2 + A2B1.
Ly luan tng t nh tren ta c
P(C) = P(A1)P(B2 ) + P(A2)P(B1) = 0,4933.
d) Gia s a chon c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang. Khi o bien co C a
xay ra. Do o xac suat e bi trang co c thuoc hop I trong trng hp
nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/C). Theo Cong thc nhan xac
suat , ta co
P(A 1C) = P(C)P(A 1 /C) .

- B0, B1, B2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:

CC
C
P(B ) = C C
C
P(B ) = C C
C
0

P(B0 ) =

2
4

6
;
45

24
;
45

15
.
45

10

10

10

- Ai va Bj oc lap.
- Tong so bi o co trong 4 bi chon ra phu thuoc vao cac bien co Ai
Bj theo bang sau:
B0 B1 B2
A0 0 1 2
A1 1 2 3
A2 2 3 4
a) Goi A la bien co

chon c 4 bi o. Ta co:
A = A2 B2 .
T ay, do tnh oc lap , Cong thc nhan xac suat th nhat cho ta:

P(A) =

b) Goi B la bien co

36 15
P(A 2 )P(B2 ) =
.
= 0, 2667.
45 45

chon c 2 bi o va 2 bi trang. Ta co:

3

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

B = A0B2 + A1B1 + A2B0

Do tnh xung khac tng oi cua cac bien co A0B2 , A1B1 , A2B0, cong
thc Cong xac suat cho ta:
P(B) = P(A0B2 + A1B1 + A2B0) = P(A0B2 ) + P(A1B1) + P(A2B0)
T ay, do tnh oc lap , Cong thc nhan xac suat th nhat cho ta:
P(B) = P(A0)P(B2 ) + P(A1)P(B1) + P(A2)P(B0) = 0,2133.

Suy ra

P(A 1 /C) =
Ma

P(A 1C)
.
P(C)

A1C = A1B2 nen

P(A 1C) = P(A 1B2 ) = P(A 1 )P(B2 ) =

va

Do o xac suat can tm la:

P(A1/C) = 0,1352.

9 15
.
= 0, 0667.
45 45

Bai 1.3: Mot lo hang cha 10 san pham gom 6 san pham tot va 4 san
pham xau. Khach hang kiem tra bang cach lay ra tng san pham cho
en khi nao c 3 san pham tot th dng lai.
a) Tnh xac suat e khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th 3.
b) Tnh xac suat e khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th 4.
b) Gia s khach hang a dng lai lan kiem tra th 4. Tnh xac suat e
lan kiem tra th 3 khach hang gap san pham xau.
Li giai
Goi Ti, Xi lan lt la cac bien co chon c san pham tot, xau lan kiem
tra th i.
a) Goi A la bien co khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th 3. Ta co:

A = T1T2T3.
Suy ra

Li giai

P(A) = P(T1T2T3) = P(T1) P(T2/T1) P(T3/ T1T2)

= (6/10)(5/9)(4/8) = 0,1667.

b) Goi B la bien co khach hang dng lai lan kiem tra th 4. Ta co:

Goi Di, Ti, Xi lan lt la cac bien co chon c bi o, bi trang, bi xanh

lan rut th i.
a) Goi A la bien co rut c 2 bi trang, 1 bi xanh va 1 bi o. Ta co:

T T X D
A xay ra Rut c T X T D

X T T D

B = X1T2T3T4 + T1X2T3T4 + T1T2X3T4 .

Suy ra
P(B) = P(X1T2T3T4 ) + P(T1X2T3T4 ) + P(T1T2X3T4 )
= P(X1) P(T2/X1) P(T3/X1T2) P(T4/X1T2T3)
+ P(T1) P(X2/T1) P(T3/T1X2) P(T4/T1X2T3)
+ P(T1) P(T2/T1) P(X3/ T1T2) P(T4/ T1T2 X3)
= (4/10)(6/9)(5/8)(4/7) + (6/10)(4/9)(5/8)(4/7)+(6/10)(5/9)(4/8)(4/7)
= 3(4/10)(6/9)(5/8)(4/7) = 0,2857.
c) Gia s khach hang a dng lai lan kiem tra th 4. Khi o bien
co B a xay ra. Do o xac suat e lan kiem tra th 3 khach hang
gap san pham xau trong trng hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien
P(X3/B).
Theo Cong thc nhan xac suat , ta co
P(X 3B) = P(B)P(X 3 /B) .
Suy ra

P(X 3 /B) =
Ma

P(X 3B)
.
P(B)

X3B = T1T2X3T4 nen

P(X3B) = P(T1T2X3T4 ) = P(T1) P(T2/T1) P(X3/ T1T2) P(T4/ T1T2 X3)
= (6/10)(5/9)(4/8)(4/7) = 0,0952.

Suy ra
A = T1T2X3D4 + T1X2T3D4 + X1T2T3D4
T ay, do tnh xung khac tng oi cua cac bien co thanh phan, ta co:
P(A) = P(T1T2X3D4)+ P(T1X2T3D4) + P(X1T2T3D4 )
Theo Cong thc Nhan xac suat, ta co
P(T1T2X3D4) = P(T1)P(T2/T1)P(X3/T1T2)P(D4/T1T2X3)
= (4/12)(3/11)(3/10)(5/9) = 1/66;
P(T1X2T3D4) = P(T1)P(X2/T1)P(T3/T1X2)P(D4/T1X2T3)
= (4/12)(3/11)(3/10)(5/9) = 1/66;
P(X1T2T3D4) = P(X1)P(T2/X1)P(T3/X1T2)P(D4/X1T2T3)
= (3/12)(4/11)(3/10)(5/9) = 1/66.
Suy ra P(A) = 3/66 = 1/22 = 0,0455.
b) Goi B la bien co khong co bi trang nao c rut ra. Ta co:

D
X D
B xay ra Rut c
X X D

X X X D

Suy ra P(X3/B) = 0,3333.

Bai 1.4: Mot hop bi gom 5 bi o, 4 bi trang va 3 bi xanh co cung c. T
hop ta rut ngau nhien khong hoan lai tng bi mot cho en khi c bi o
th dng lai. Tnh xac suat e
a) c 2 bi trang, 1 bi xanh va 1 bi o.
b) khong co bi trang nao c rut ra.

Suy ra
B = D1 + X1D2 + X1X2D3+ X1X2X3 D4
T ay, do tnh xung khac tng oi cua cac bien co thanh phan, ta co:
P(B) = P(D1)+ P(X1D2) + P(X1X2D3 ) + P(X1X2X3 D4)
Theo Cong thc Nhan xac suat, ta co

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

P(B) = P(D1) + P(X1)P(D2/X1) + P(X1)P(X2/X1)P(D3/X1X2)

+ P(X1)P(X2/X1)P(X3/X1X2)P(D4/X1X2X3)
= 5/12+ (3/12)(5/11) + (3/12)(2/11)(5/10) + (3/12)(2/11)(1/10)(5/9)
= 5/9
Bai 1.5: San pham X ban ra th trng do mot nha may gom ba phan
xng I, II va III san xuat, trong o phan xng I chiem 30%; phan
xng II chiem 45% va phan xng III chiem 25%. T le san pham loai
A do ba phan xng I, II va III san xuat lan lt la 70%, 50% va 90%.
a) Tnh t le san pham loai A noi chung do nha may san xuat.
b) Chon mua ngau nhien mot san pham X th trng. Gia s a mua
c san pham loai A. Theo ban, san pham ay co kha nang do phan
xng nao san xuat ra nhieu nhat?
c) Chon mua ngau nhien 121 san pham X (trong rat nhieu san pham X)
th trng.
1) Tnh xac suat e co 80 san pham loai A.
2) Tnh xac suat e co t 80 en 85 san pham loai A.
Li giai
Tom tat:
Phan xng
T le san lng
T le loai A

I
II
III
30% 45% 25%
70% 50% 90%

a) e tnh t le san pham loai A noi chung do nha may san xuat ta
chon mua ngau nhien mot san pham th trng. Khi o t le san pham
loai A chnh la xac suat e san pham o thuoc loai A.
Goi B la bien co san pham chon mua thuoc loai A.
A1, A2, A3 lan lt la cac bien co san pham do phan xng I, II, III san
xuat. Khi o A1, A2, A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va
P(A1) = 30% = 0,3; P(A2) = 45% = 0,45; P(A3) = 25% = 0,25.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:
P(B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/A2) + P(A3)P(B/A3)
Theo gia thiet,
P(B/A1) = 70% = 0,7; P(B/A2) = 50% = 0,5; P(B/A3) = 90% = 0,9.
7

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

Suy ra P(B) = 0,66 = 66%. Vay t le san pham loai A noi chung do nha
may san xuat la 66%.
b) Chon mua ngau nhien mot san pham X th trng. Gia s a mua
c san pham loai A. Theo ban, san pham ay co kha nang do phan
xng nao san xuat ra nhieu nhat?
Gia s a mua c san pham loai A. Khi o bien co B a xay ra. Do o,
e biet san pham loai A o co kha nang do phan xng nao san xuat ra
nhieu nhat ta can so sanh cac xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/B), P(A2/B) va
P(A3/B). Neu P(Ai/B) la ln nhat th san pham ay co kha nang do phan
xng th i san xuat ra la nhieu nhat. Theo cong thc Bayes ta co:

P(A1 /B) =
P(A 2 /B) =
P(A 3 /B) =

P(A1 )P(B/A1 ) 0, 3.0, 7 21

;
=
=
P(B)
0, 66
66
P(A 2 )P(B/A 2 ) 0, 45.0, 5 22, 5
=
=
;
P(B)
0, 66
66
P(A 3 )P(B/A 3 ) 0, 25.0, 9 22, 5
=
=
.
P(B)
0, 66
66

V P(A2/B) = P(A3/B) > P(A1/B) nen san pham loai A ay co kha nang
do phan xng II hoac III san xuat ra la nhieu nhat.
c) Chon mua ngau nhien 121 san pham X (trong rat nhieu san pham X)
th trng.
1) Tnh xac suat e co 80 san pham loai A.
2) Tnh xac suat e co t 80 en 85 san pham loai A.
Ap dung cong thc Bernoulli vi n = 121, p = 0,66, ta co:
1) Xac suat e co 80 san pham loai A la
80
80
P121 (80) = C121
p 80q 41 = C121
(0, 66)80 (0, 34) 41 = 0, 076.

2) Xac suat e co t 80 en 85 san pham loai A la

85

k = 80

121

(k) =

85

k = 80

k
121

p k q121 k =

85

k = 80

k
121

(0, 66) k (0, 34)121 k = 0, 3925.

Bai 1.6: Co ba ca hang I, II va III cung kinh doanh san pham Y. T le

san pham loai A trong ba ca hang I, II va III lan lt la 70%, 75% va
50%. Mot khach hang chon nhau nhien mot ca hang va t o mua mot
san pham
a) Tnh xac suat e khach hang mua c san pham loai A.
b) Gia s a mua c san pham loai A. Theo ban, kha nang ngi
khach hang ay a chon ca hang nao la nhieu nhat?
Li giai

I
II
III
70% 75% 50%

P(A 2 /B) =

P(A1 )P(B/A1 ) (1 / 3).0, 7

70
;
=
=
P(B)
0, 65
195
P(A 2 )P(B/A 2 ) (1 / 3).0, 75
75
=
=
;
P(B)
0, 65
195
P(A 3 )P(B/A 3 ) (1 / 3).0, 5
50
=
=
.
P(B)
0, 65
195

V P(A2/B) > P(A1/B) > P(A3/B) nen ca hang II co nhieu kha nang c
chon nhat.

Chon nhau nhien mot ca hang va t o mua mot san pham.

a) Tnh xac suat e khach hang mua c san pham loai A.
Goi B la bien co san pham chon mua thuoc loai A.
A1, A2, A3 lan lt la cac bien co chon ca hang I, II, III. Khi o A1, A2,
A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va

Bai 1.7: Co hai hop I va II moi hop cha 12 bi, trong o hop I gom 8 bi
o, 4 bi trang; hop II gom 5 bi o, 7 bi trang. Lay ngau nhien t hop I
ba bi roi bo sang hop II; sau o lay ngau nhien t hop II bon bi.
a) Tnh xac suat e lay c ba bi o va mot bi trang t hop II.
b) Gia s a lay c ba bi o va mot bi trang t hop II. Tm xac suat
e trong ba bi lay c t hop I co hai bi o va mot bi trang.
Li giai

P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 1/3.

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:
P(B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/ A2)+ P(A3)P(B/A3)
Theo gia thiet,
P(B/A1) = 70% = 0,7;
P(B/A2) = 75% = 0,75;
P(B/A3 = 50% = 0,5.

Goi A la bien co chon c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II.

Ai (i = 0, 1, 2, 3) la bien co co i bi o va (3-i) bi trang co trong 3 bi chon
ra t hop I. Khi o A0, A1, A2, A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va
ta co:

CC
C
P(A ) = C C
C
P(A ) = C C
C
P(A ) = C C
C
0

P(A 0 ) =

Suy ra P(B) = 0,65 = 65%. Vay xac suat e khach hang mua c san
pham loai A la 65%.
b) Gia s a mua c san pham loai A. Theo ban, kha nang
khach hang ay a chon ca hang nao la nhieu nhat?

P(A1 /B) =

P(A 3 /B) =

Tom tat:
Ca hang
T le loai A

P(A2/B) va P(A3/B). Neu P(Ai/B) la ln nhat th ca hang th i co nhieu

kha nang c chon nhat.
Theo cong thc Bayes ta co:

ngi

3
4

4
;
220

48
;
220

112
;
220

56
.
220

12

12

2
8

1
4

12

Gia s a mua c san pham loai A. Khi o bien co B a xay ra. Do o,

e biet san pham loai A o co kha nang khach hang ay a chon ca
hang nao la nhieu nhat ta can so sanh cac xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/B),

3
8

12

0
4

a) Tnh xac suat e lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II.

9

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

10

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:

P(A)=P(A0)P(A/A0)+P(A1)P(A/A1)+P(A2)P(A/A2)+P(A3)P(A/A3)
Theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon, ta co

P(A / A ) = C C
C
P(A / A ) = C C
C
P(A / A ) = C C
C
P(A / A ) = C C
C
0

10

15

100
;
=
1365

180
;
1365

280
;
1365

392
.
1365

15

1
8

15

15

Suy ra xac suat can tm la P(A) = 0,2076.

b) Gia s a lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II. Tm xac suat e
trong 3 bi lay c t hop I co 2 bi o va 1 bi trang.
Gia s a lay c 3 bi o va 1 bi trang t hop II. Khi o bien co A a
xay ra. Do do xac suat e trong 3 bi lay c t hop I co 2 bi o va 1 bi
trang trong trng hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A2/A). Ap
dung cong thc Bayes, ta co:

P(A 2 /A) =

112 280
.
P(A 2 )P(A/A 2 ) 220 1365
=
= 0, 5030.
P(A)
0, 2076

Vay xac suat can tm la P(A2/A) = 0,5030.

Bai 1.8: Co ba hop moi hop ng 5 vien bi trong o hop th nhat co 1 bi
trang, 4 bi en; hop th hai co 2 bi trang, 3 bi en; hop th ba co 3 bi
trang, 2 bi en.
a) Lay ngau nhien t moi hop mot bi.
1) Tnh xac suat e c ca 3 bi trang.
2) Tnh xac suat c 2 bi en, 1 bi trang.
3) Gia s trong 3 vien lay ra co ung 1 bi trang.Tnh xac suat e bi
trang o la cua hop th nhat.
b) Chon ngau nhien mot hop roi t hop o lay ngau nhien ra 3 bi.
Tnh xac suat c ca 3 bi en.

11

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

Li giai
a) Goi Aj (j = 1, 2, 3) la bien co lay c bi trang t hop th j. Khi o A1,
A2, A3 oc lap va

1
; P(A 1 ) =
5
2
P(A 2 ) = ; P(A 2 ) =
5
3
P(A 3 ) = ; P(A 3 ) =
5
P(A1 ) =

4
;
5
3
;
5
2
.
5

1) Goi A la bien co lay c ca 3 bi trang. Ta co

A = A1 A 2 A 3 .

Suy ra P(A) = P(A1) P(A2) P(A3) = 0,048.

2) Goi B la bien co lay 2 bi en, 1 bi trang. Ta co

B = A1 A 2 A 3 + A1A 2 A 3 + A1 A 2 A 3

Suy ra P(B) =0,464 .

3) Gia s trong 3 vien lay ra co ung 1 bi trang. Khi o bien co B
a xay ra. Do o xac suat e bi trang o la cua hop th nhat trong trng
hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/B). Theo cong thc Nhan xac
suat ta co:
P(A1B) = P(B)P(A1/B)
Suy ra

P(A 1 /B) =

P(A1B)
.
P(B)

Ma A 1B = A 1 A 2 A 3 nen ly luan tng t nh tren ta c P(A1B) = 0,048.

Suy ra
P(A1/B) =0,1034 .
b) Chon ngau nhien mot hop roi t hop o lay ngau nhien ra 3 bi.
Tnh xac suat c ca 3 bi en.
Goi A la bien co lay c ca 3 bi en.
A1, A2, A3 lan lt la cac bien co chon c hop I, II, III. Khi o A1, A2,
A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va
P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 1/3.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:
P(A) = P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/ A2)+ P(A3)P(A/A3)
Theo cong thc xac suat la chon, ta co:
12

P(A/A1 ) =

C10C34
C53

C 0C 3
4
1
=
; P(A/A 2 ) = 2 3 3 =
; P(A/A 3 ) =0.
10
10
C5

Ap dung Cong thc Bayes va s dung ket qua va tm c cau a) ta

co

P(A 1 /A) =

Suy ra P(A) = 0,1667.

Bai 1.9: Co 20 hop san pham cung loai, moi hop cha rat nhieu san

pham, trong o co 10 hop cua x nghiep I, 6 hop cua x nghiep II va

4 hop cua x nghiep III. T le san pham tot cua cac x nghiep lan
lt la 50%, 65% va 75%. Lay ngau nhien ra mot hop va chon ngau
nhien ra 3 san pham t hop o.
a) Tnh xac suat e trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san pham
tot.
b) Gia s trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san pham tot. Tnh
xac suat e 2 san pham tot o cua x nghiep I.
Li giai
Goi A la bien co trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san pham tot.
Aj (j = 1, 2, 3) la bien co chon c hop cua x nghiep th j.
Khi o A1, A2, A3 la mot ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co:

C
C
)= C
C
)= C
C

P(A 1 ) =

10
1

10
;
20

6
;
20

4
.
20

20

P(A 2

6
1
20
1

P(A 3

4
1
20

Mat khac, t gia thiet, theo cong thc Bernoulli, ta co

P(A / A1 ) = C32 (0, 5)2 (1 0, 5) = 0, 375

P(A / A 2 ) = C23 (0, 65)2 (1 0, 65) = 0, 443625
P(A / A 3 ) = C23 (0,75)2 (1 0, 25) = 0, 421875

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co

P(A) = P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + P(A3)P(A/A3)
= (10/20).0,375 + (6/20). 0,443625 + (4/20). 0,421875 = 0,4050.
b) Gia s trong 3 san pham chon ra co ung 2 san pham tot. Khi o,
bien co A a xay ra. Do o, xac suat e 2 san pham tot o cua x
nghiep I chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/A).
13

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

P(A 1 )P(A/A1 ) (10/20).0,375

=
= 0, 4630.
P(A)
0,4050

Bai 1.10: Co 10 sinh vien i thi, trong o co 3 thuoc loai gioi, 4 kha va 3
trung bnh. Trong so 20 cau hoi thi qui nh th sinh vien loai gioi tra li
c tat ca, sinh vien kha tra li c 16 cau con sinh vien trung bnh
c 10 cau. Goi ngau nhien mot sinh vien va phat mot phieu thi gom
4 cau hoi th anh ta tra li c ca 4 cau hoi. Tnh xac suat e sinh vien
o thuoc loai kha.
Li giai
Tom tat:
Xep loai sinh vien
So lng
So cau tra li c/20

Gioi Kha Trung bnh

3
4
3
20
16
10

Goi A la bien co sinh vien tra li c ca 3 cau hoi.

A1, A2, A3 lan lt la cac bien co sinh vien thuoc loai
Trung bnh.

Gioi, Kha;

Yeu cau cua bai toan la tnh xac suat co ieu kien P(A2/A).
Cac bien co A1, A2, A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi, va ta co:
P(A1) = 3/10; P(A2) = 4/10; P(A3) = 3/10.
Theo cong thc Bayes, ta co

P(A 2 /A) =

P(A 2 )P(A/A 2 )
.
P(A)

Mat khac, theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co

P(A) = P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + P(A3)P(A/A3).
Theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon, ta co:

P(A / A 1 ) =

C420
= 1;
C420

P(A / A 2 ) =

4
C16
C40 1820
=
;
4
C20
4845

P(A / A 3 ) =

4
0
C10
C10
210
=
.
4
C20
4845

14

Suy ra

P(A2/A) = 0,3243.

Bai 1.11: Co hai hop I va II, trong o hop I cha 10 bi trang va 8 bi en;
hop II cha 8 bi trang va 6 bi en. T moi hop rut ngau nhien 2 bi bo i,
sau o bo tat ca cac bi con lai cua hai hop vao hop III (rong). Lay ngau
nhien 2 bi t hop III. Tnh xac suat e trong 2 bi lay t hop III co 1
trang, 1 en.

- Bi

va

Cj

oc lap.

- Tong so bi trang co trong 4 bi chon ra phu thuoc vao cac bien co Bi

Cj theo bang sau:

B0
B1
B2

Li giai
Goi A la bien co bi lay c 1 trang, 1 en.
Aj (j = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4) la bien co co j bi trang va (4-j) bi en co trong 4
bi bo i (t ca hai hop I va II). Khi o A0, A1, A2 , A3, A4 la mot he ay u,
xung khac tng oi.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co
P(A) = P(A0)P(A/A0) + P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2)+ P(A3)P(A/A3) +
P(A4)P(A/A4).
trong o
P(A/A 0 ) =

C118C110

10
(V khi A0 a xay ra th trong hop III co 28 bi gom
21

C228

18 trang , 10 en).
Tng t,
P(A/A1 ) =
P(A/A 3 ) =

C117C111
C228

C115C113
C228

C1 C1
65
14
; P(A/A 4 ) = 142 14 =
.
126
27
C28

Bay gi ta tnh P(A0); P(A1); P(A2); P(A3); P(A4).

Goi Bi , Ci (i = 0, 1, 2) lan lt la cac bien co co i bi trang va (2 - i) bi
en co trong 2 bi c chon ra t hop I, hop II. Khi o
- B0, B1, B2 xung khac va ta co:

P(B0 ) =

C C
C
0

10

18

28
; P(B1 ) =
153

C C
C
1

10

18

80
; P(B2 ) =
153

C C
C
2

10

18

5
.
17

- C0, C1, C2 xung khac va ta co:

CC
C
0

P(C0 ) =

14

2
6

15
; P(C1 ) =
91

CC
C
1

14

1
6

48
; P(C 2 ) =
91

CC
C
2

C1
1
2
3

C2
2
3
4

P(A0) = P(B0)P(C0) = 20/663.

A0 = B0C0
P(A1) = P(B0)P(C1 ) + P(B1)P(C0) = 848/4641.
A1 = B0C1 + B1C0
A2 = B0C2 + B1C1 + B2C0 P(A2) = P(B0)P(C2)+P(B1)P(C1)+P(B2)P(C0)
=757/1989.
P(A3) = P(B1)P(C2)+P(B2)P(C1) = 4400/13923.
A3 = B1C2 + B2C1
P(A4) = P(B2)P(C2) = 20/221.
A4 = B2C2
T o suy ra P(A) = 0,5080.

Bai 1.12: Co hai hop cung c. Hop th nhat cha 4 bi trang 6 bi xanh,
hop th hai cha 5 bi trang va 7 bi xanh. Chon ngau nhien mot hop roi
t hop o lay ra 2 bi th c 2 bi trang. Tnh xac suat e vien bi tiep
theo cung lay t hop tren ra lai la bi trang.

C1 C1
187
32
=
; P(A/A 2 ) = 162 12 =
;
378
63
C28
=

C0
0
1
2

va

14

0
6

28
.
91

15

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

Li giai
Goi A1 la bien co 2 bi lay au tien la bi trang.
A2 la bien co bi lay lan sau la bi trang.
Bai toan yeu cau tnh P(A2/A1).
Theo cong thc nhan xac suat, ta co P(A1A2) = P(A1) P(A2/A1). Suy ra

P(A 2 / A1 ) =

P(A1 A 2 )
.
P(A1 )

Bay gi ta tnh cac xac suat P(A1) va P(A1A2).

Goi B1, B2 lan lt la cac bien co chon c hop I, hop II. Khi o B1, B2
la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co: P(B1) = P(B2) = 0,5.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co
P(A1) = P(B1) P(A1/ B1) + P(B2) P(A1/ B2)
16

Ma

CC
C
/B )= C C
C
2

P(A 1 / B1 ) =

0
6

6
;
45

10
.
66

10

P(A 1

0
7

12

nen
P(A1) = 47/330.
Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co
P(A1A2) = P(B1) P(A1A2/ B1) + P(B2) P(A1A2/ B2).
Ma

6 2
1
=
;
45 8 30
10 3
1
P(A 1 A 2 / B2 ) = P(A 1 / B2 )P(A 2 / A 1B2 ) =
=
.
66 10 22

a
a 1
.
a 1
+
+ b 1
a
b
a
=
P(A1 / A) =
a
a 1
b
a
+ b 1
a
+
.
.
.
a + b a + b 1 a + b a + b 1

Bai 1.14: Co 3 hop phan, trong o hop I cha 15 vien tot va 5 vien xau,
hop II cha 10 vien tot va 4 vien xau, hop III cha 20 vien tot va 10 vien
xau. Ta gieo mot con xuc xac can oi. Neu thay xuat hien mat 1 cham th
ta chon hop I; neu xuat hien mat 2 hoac 3 cham th chon hop II, con xuat
hien cac mat con lai th chon hop III. T hop c chon lay ngau nhien
ra 4 vien phan. Tm xac suat e lay c t nhat 2 vien tot.

P(A 1 A 2 / B1 ) = P(A 1 / B1 )P(A 2 / A 1B1 ) =

Li giai

nen P(A1A2) = 13/330. Suy ra xac suat can tm la P(A2/A1) =13/47= 0,2766.
Bai 1.13: Mot lo hang gom a san pham loai I va b san pham loai II c
ong gi e gi cho khach hang. Ni nhan kiem tra lai thay that lac 1
san pham. Chon ngau nhien ra 1 san pham th thay o la san pham loai
I. Tnh xac suat e san pham that lac cung thuoc loai I.
Li giai
Goi A la bien co san pham c chon ra thuoc loai I.
A1, A2 lan lt la cac bien co san pham that lac thuoc loai I, loai II.
Yeu cau cua bai toan la tnh xac suat co ieu kien P(A1/A).
Ta thay A1, A2 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va

P(A1 ) =

C1a C0b
a
=
;
C1a + b
a+b

P(A 2 ) =

Ca0 C1b
b
=
.
C1a + b
a+b

Theo cong thc Bayes, ta co

P(A 1 / A) =

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co

P(A) = P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + P(A3)P(A/A3).
T gia thiet ta co:

P(A / A 1 ) =

2
3
4
C15
C52 C15
C15 C15
C50 4690
;
+
+
=
4
4
C420
C20
C20
4845

P(A / A 2 ) =

2
3
4
C10
C42 C10
C14 C10
C04
960
+
+
=
;
4
4
4
C14
C14
C14
1001

P(A / A 3 ) =

2
C220C10
C3 C1
C4 C0
24795
+ 20 4 10 + 204 10 =
.
4
C30
C30
C30
27405

P(A 1 )P(A / A 1 )
P(A 1 )P(A / A1 )
=
P(A)
P(A1 )P(A / A1 ) + P(A 2 )P(A / A 2 )

Suy ra P(A) =0,9334.

C C
a 1
=
;
C
a + b 1

Bai 1.15: Co hai kien hang I va II. Kien th nhat cha 10 san pham,
trong o co 8 san pham loai A. Kien th hai cha 20 san pham, trong o
co 4 san pham loai A. Lay t moi kien 2 san pham. Sau o, trong 4 san
pham thu c chon ngau nhien 2 san pham. Tnh xac suat e trong 2
san pham chon ra sau cung co ung 1 san pham loai A.

Ma
P(A / A 1 ) =

Goi A la bien co chon c t nhat 2 vien phan tot.

Aj (j =1,2, 3) la bien co chon c hop th j. Khi o A1, A2, A3 la he
ay u, xung khac tng oi va ta co:
A1 xay ra khi va ch khi thay con xuc xac, xuat hien mat 1 cham, do
o P(A1) = 1/6.
P(A3) = 3/6.
Tng t,
P(A2) = 2/6;

1
0
a 1 b
1
a + b 1

P(A / A 2 ) =

CC
C

1 0
a b 1
1
a + b 1

a
.
a + b1

nen

Li giai
17

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

18

CC
C
P(C ) = C C
C
P(C ) = C C
C
0

P(C0 ) =

Goi C la bien co trong 2 san pham chon ra sau cung co ung 1 san
pham loai A.
Aj (j = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 ) la bien co co j san pham loai A va (4-j) san
pham loai B co trong 4 san pham lay t hai kien I va II. Khi o A0, A1,
A2, A3, A4 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi. Theo cong thc xac suat
ay u, ta co

2
16

120
;
190

64
;
190

6
;
190

20

16

20

2
4

0
16

20

P(C) = P(A0)P(C/A0) + P(A1)P(C/A1) + P(A2)P(C/A2) + P(A3)P(C/A3)

+ P(A4)P(C/A4).

- Bi

Ta co:

- Tong so sp A co trong 4 sp chon ra phu thuoc vao cac bien co Bi

Cj theo bang sau:

P(C/A 0 ) = 0;
P(C/A1 ) =
P(C/A 2 )
P(C/A 3 )

C11C13

C24
C1 C1
= 222
C4
C1 C1
= 321
C4

3
6

4
6

3
6

0
8

16
=
;
45

10

10

1
;
45

10

0
2

C1
1
2
3

va

C2
2
3
4

Ta co:

P(C/A 4 ) =0.

CC
C
P(B ) = C C
C
P(B ) = C C
C

oc lap.

C0
B0 0
B1 1
B2 2

Bay gi ta tnh P(A1); P(A2); P(A3).

Goi Bi , Ci (i = 0, 1, 2) lan lt la cac bien co co i sp A va (2 - i) sp B
co trong 2 sp c chon ra t kien I, kien II. Khi o
- B0, B1, B2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:

P(B0 ) =

va Cj

28
.
45

- C0, C1, C2 xung khac tng oi va ta co:

A1 = B0C1 + B1C0 .
A2 = B0C2 + B1C1 + B2C0 .
A3 = B1C2 + B2C1 .
T ay, nh cac cong thc cong va nhan xac suat ta tnh c:
P(A1) =

0,2320

; P(A2) = 0,5135

; P(A3) =

Suy ra xac suat can tm la P(C) = 0,5687.

Bai 1.16: Mot xa thu ban 10 vien an vao mot muc tieu. Xac suat e 1
vien an ban ra trung muc tieu la 0,8 . Biet rang: Neu co 10 vien trung
th muc tieu chac chan b diet. Neu co t 2 en 9 vien trung th muc tieu
b diet vi xac suat 80%. Neu co 1 vien trung th muc tieu b diet vi xac
suat 20%.
a) Tnh xac suat e muc tieu b diet.
b) Gia s muc tieu a b diet. Tnh xac suat co 10 vien trung.
Li giai
Tom tat:
-

19

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

0,2208 .

So vien ban ra: 10 vien.

Xac suat trung cua moi vien: 0,8.
20

So vien trung
1
2-9
10
Xac suat muc tieu b diet 20% 80% 100%
a) Goi A la bien co muc tieu b diet.
A0, A1, A2, A3 lan lt la cac bien co co 0; 1; 2-9; 10 vien trung. Khi
o, A0, A1, A2, A3 la mot he ay u, xung khac tng oi va gia thiet cho
ta:
P(A/A0) = 0; P(A/A1) = 20% = 0,2;
P(A/A2) = 80%= 0,8; P(A/A3) = 100% = 1.

Li giai
Goi Aj (j = 0, 1, 2) la cac bien co co j san pham loai A va (2-j) san
pham khong thuoc loai A co trong 2 san pham do may san xuat.
Goi Bj (j = 0, 1, 2, 3) la cac bien co co j san pham loai A va (3-j) san
pham khong thuoc loai A co trong 3 san pham lay t lo hang.
Khi o
- A0, A1, A2 xung khac tng oi va theo cong thc Bernoulli vi n = 2; p
= 0,6; q = 0,4 ta co:

P(A 0 ) = C 2p0q 2 = (0, 4)2 = 0,16;

0

P(A1 ) = C 2p1q1 = 2(0, 6)(0, 4) = 0, 48;

1

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:

P(A 2 ) = C 2p2q 0 = (0, 6)2 = 0, 36.

2

P(A) = P(A0)P(A/A0) + P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + P(A3)P(A/A3).

Theo cong thc Bernoulli vi n =10; p = 0,8, q = 0,2, ta co

P(A0 ) = q10 = (0, 2)10;

P(A1) = C110pq9 = 10(0, 8)(0, 2)9;

- B0, B1, B2 , B3 xung khac tng oi va theo cong thc tnh xac suat la
chon vi N = 10, NA = 6, n= 3 ta co (v lo hang gom 10 san pham vi t
le san pham loai A la 60%, ngha la lo hang gom 6 san pham loai A va 4
san pham khong thuoc loai A):

CC
C
P(B ) = C C
C
P(B ) = C C
C
P(B ) = C C
C
0

P(B0 ) =

P(A3) = p = (0, 8) ;
10

10

3
4

4
;
120

36
;
120

60
;
120

20
.
120

10

P(A2 ) = 1 P(A0 ) P(A1 ) P(A3) = 1 (0, 2)10 10(0, 8)(0, 2)9 (0, 8)10.

Suy ra P(A) = 0,8215.

10

b) Gia s muc tieu a b diet. Khi o bien co A a xay ra. Do o xac

suat co 10 vien trung trong trng hp nay chnh la xac suat co ieu kien
P(A3/A).
Theo cong thc Bayes, ta co:
P(A 3 / A) =

P(A 3 )P(A / A 3 )
P(A)

T ay ta tnh c P(A3/A) = 0,1307.

Bai 1.17: Mot may san xuat san pham vi t le san pham loai A la 60%.
Mot lo hang gom 10 san pham vi t le san pham loai A la 60%. Cho may
san xuat 2 san pham va t lo hang lay ra 3 san pham.
a) Tnh xac suat e so san pham loai A co trong 2 san pham do may san
xuat bang so san pham loai A co trong 3 san pham c lay ra t lo hang.
b) Gia s trong 5 san pham thu c co 2 san pham loai A. Tnh xac suat
e 2 san pham loai A o eu do may san xuat.

21

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

1
4

10

3
6

10

- Ai

va

Bj

oc lap.

0
4

a) Goi C la bien co so san pham loai A co trong 2 san pham do may san
xuat bang so san pham loai A co trong 2 san pham c lay ra t lo hang.
Ta co:
C = A0B0 + A1B1 + A2B2.
T ay, do tnh xung khac va oc lap, cac cong thc cong va nhan xac
suat cho ta:
P(C) = P(A0)P(B0)+ P(A1)P(B1)+ P(A2)P(B2) = 0,3293.

22

b) Goi D la bien co co 2 san pham loai A trong 5 san pham co c.

Gia s trong 5 san pham tren co 2 san pham loai A. Khi o bien co D a
xay ra. Do o, xac suat e 2 san pham loai A o eu do may san xuat
chnh la xac suat co ieu kien P(A2/D).
Theo cong thc nhan xac suat ta co:

P(A 2D)
.
P(D)

P(A 2 /D) =

a) Goi A la bien co lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I.

Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:
P(A) = P(A0)P(A/A0) + P(A1)P(A/A1) + P(A2)P(A/A2) + P(A3)P(A/A3).
T gia thiet ta suy ra trong lo I co 15.60% = 9 sp tot va 6 sp xau. Do o
theo cong thc tnh xac suat la chon, ta co:

Nhan xet rang tong so san pham loai A co trong 5 san pham thu c
phu thuoc vao cac bien co Ai va Bj theo bang sau:

A0
A1
A2

Suy ra

D = A0 B2 + A1B1 + A2B0

B0
0
1
2

B1
1
2
3

B2
2
3
4

va

B3
3
4
5

A2D = A2B0 .

T ay, ta tnh c P(D) = 0,236 ; P(A2D) = 0,012. Suy ra xac suat can
tm la
P(A2/D) = 0,0508.
Bai 1.18: Co hai lo hang, moi lo cha 60% san pham tot, trong o lo I
cha 15 san pham, lo II cha rat nhieu san pham. T lo II lay ra 3 san
pham bo vao lo I, sau o t lo I lay ra 2 san pham.
a)
Tnh xac suat lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I.
b)
Tnh xac suat lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I, trong o sp tot co
trong lo I t trc.
c)
Gia s a lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I. Tnh xac suat a lay
c 2sp tot, 1sp xau t lo II.
Li giai
Goi Aj (j = 0,1, 2, 3) la bien co co j san pham tot va (3-j) san pham xau co
trong 3 san pham c chon ra t lo II. Khi o A0, A1, A2, A3 la mot he
ay u, xung khac tng oi. Theo cong thc Bernoulli ta co:
P(A 0 ) = C03p0 q3 = (0, 4)3 = 0, 064;
P(A1 ) =

C13p1q2

P(A / A 0 ) =

C19C19
81
;
=
2
C18
153

P(A / A1 ) =

C110C18
80
;
=
2
C18
153

P(A / A 2 ) =

C111C17
77
=
;
2
C18
153

P(A / A 3 ) =

C112C16
72
=
.
2
C18
153

Suy ra xac suat can tm la: P(A) = 0,5035

b) Goi B la bien co lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I, trong o sp tot co
trong lo I t trc. Theo cong thc xac suat ay u, ta co:
P(B) = P(A0)P(B/A0) + P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/A2) + P(A3)P(B/A3).
Ta co:

P(B / A 0 ) =

C19C19
81
;
=
2
C18
153

P(B / A1 ) =

C19C18
72
=
;
2
C18
153

P(B / A 2 ) =

C19C17
63
=
;
2
C18
153

P(B / A 3 ) =

C19C16
54
=
.
2
C18
153

Suy ra xac suat can tm la: P(B) = 0,4235.

= 3(0, 6) (0, 4) = 0, 288;

P(A 2 ) = C23p2 q1 = 3(0, 6)2 (0, 4)1 = 0, 432;

P(A 3 ) = C33p3q0 = (0, 6)3 = 0, 216.
23

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com

c) Gia s a lay c 1sp tot, 1sp xau t lo I. Khi o bien co A a xay ra.
Do o xac suat a lay c 2sp tot, 1sp xau t lo II trong trng hp nay
chnh la XS co ieu kien P(A2/A). Theo cong thc Bayes, ta co:
24

P(A 2 )P(A / A 2 )
P(A 2 / A) =
=
P(A)
--------------

77
153 = 0, 4318.
0, 5035

0, 432.

-------------

25

Printed with FinePrint trial version - purchase at www.fineprint.com