Intro to IndiaPopulation.

xls
This workbook is designed to illustrate three common methods of forecasting via extrapolation with a real data set
consisting of population estimates for the country of India.
The Extrapolation worksheet contains estimates from the US Census Bureau for
India's population at mid-year over the past fifty years and forecasts for the next
fifty years.
The three forecasting methods are:
(1) Linear trend forecast
(2) Logarithmic trend forecast
(3) Autoregressive forecast
Reference Point: 1999
The sheet illustrates both ex post forecasts, in which data for the period 19501990 is used to forecast future population in the period 1991-1999, and ex ante
forecasts in which data from 1950 to 1990 is used to forecast population for the
period 2000-2050.
Data Sources:
US Census
Penn World Tables

n with a real data set

Population
(millions) Pop (t-1)
370
376
370
383
376
390
383
397
390
404
397
412
404
420
412
428
420
437
428
446
437
455
446
464
455
474
464
485
474
496
485
507
496
519
507
530
519
543
530
555
543
568
555
581
568
595
581
608
595
622
608
636
622
649
636
663
649
676
663
690
676
705
690
720
705
736
720
752
736
768
752
784
768
801
784
817
801
834
817
851
834
867
851
883
867

Ln(Pop)
5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75
6.76
6.78

Linear
Trend
332
344
356
368
380
392
405
417
429
441
453
465
477
489
502
514
526
538
550
562
574
586
599
611
623
635
647
659
671
684
696
708
720
732
744
756
768
781
793
805
817
829
841

Log Exp(Log
Trend Trend)
5.89
363
5.92
371
5.94
379
5.96
387
5.98
395
6.00
404
6.02
413
6.04
422
6.07
431
6.09
440
6.11
449
6.13
459
6.15
469
6.17
479
6.19
490
6.21
500
6.24
511
6.26
522
6.28
533
6.30
545
6.32
556
6.34
568
6.36
581
6.39
593
6.41
606
6.43
619
6.45
632
6.47
646
6.49
660
6.51
674
6.53
689
6.56
704
6.58
719
6.60
734
6.62
750
6.64
766
6.66
783
6.68
800
6.71
817
6.73
835
6.75
853
6.77
871
6.79
890

Linear Trend Line for India's Population, Actu

900
850
800
750
700
Population (millions)

t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

650
600
550
500
450
400
350

300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 198
Year

Ln Population and Trend Line , Es tim

7.00
6.80
6.60
Ln Population

Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992

6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60

5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 197
Ye ar

5.60

5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 197

43
44
45
46
47
48
49

899
916
932
949
965
982
998

883
899
916
932
949
965
982

6.80
6.82
6.84
6.86
6.87
6.89
6.91

853
865
878
890
902
914
926

6.81
6.83
6.85
6.88
6.90
6.92
6.94

Ye ar

909
929
949
969
990
1011
1033

Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for Indi

Population(millions)

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970
Year

1975

19

Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE

Linear Trend
LinSlope
LinInt
12.13
331.74
0.24
5.47
LnTrend
LnSlope
LnInt
0.0213
5.895
0.0001
0.002

Linear Trend Line for India's Population, Actual Data, Estim ation Period, 1950-1990

900
850
800
750

Population (millions)

700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year

Ln Population and Trend Line , Es tim ation Period, 1950-1990

7.00
6.80

Ln Population

6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Ye ar

Population(millions)

5.60
5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Ye ar

Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for India's Population, Actual Data, Estimation Period, 1950-1990
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970
Year

1975

1980

1985

1990

851
851

851
851
851
851
851

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965

900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Estimation Ex Post Forecast Ex Ante

Period
Forecast
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

Population
(millions) Pop (t-1)
370
376
370
383
376
390
383
397
390
404
397
412
404
420
412
428
420
437
428
446
437
455
446
464
455
474
464
485
474
496
485
507
496
519
507
530
519
543
530
555
543
568
555
581
568
595
581
608
595
622
608
636
622
649
636
663
649
676
663
690
676
705
690
720
705
736
720
752
736
768
752
784
768
801
784
817
801
834
817
851
834

Ln(Pop)
5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75

Linear
Trend
332
344
356
368
380
392
405
417
429
441
453
465
477
489
502
514
526
538
550
562
574
586
599
611
623
635
647
659
671
684
696
708
720
732
744
756
768
781
793
805
817

Log Exp(Log Autoreg

Trend Trend) Forecast
5.89
363
5.92
371
5.94
379
5.96
387
5.98
395
6.00
404
6.02
413
6.04
422
6.07
431
6.09
440
6.11
449
6.13
459
6.15
469
6.17
479
6.19
490
6.21
500
6.24
511
6.26
522
6.28
533
6.30
545
6.32
556
6.34
568
6.36
581
6.39
593
6.41
606
6.43
619
6.45
632
6.47
646
6.49
660
6.51
674
6.53
689
6.56
704
6.58
719
6.60
734
6.62
750
6.64
766
6.66
783
6.68
800
6.71
817
6.73
835
6.75
853

Population (1000s)

829
841
853
865
878
890
902
914
926
938
950
963
975
987
999
1011
1023
1035
1047
1060
1072
1084
1096
1108
1120
1132
1144
1157
1169
1181
1193
1205
1217
1229
1242
1254
1266
1278
1290
1302
1314
Population (millions)

Population (millions)

1991 41
867
851
6.76
1992 42
883
867
6.78
1993 43
899
883
6.80
1994 44
916
899
6.82
1995 45
932
916
6.84
1996 46
949
932
6.86
1997 47
965
949
6.87
1998 48
982
965
6.89
1999 49
998
982
6.91
2000 50
2001 51
2002 52
2003 53
Two Ex Post Forecasts
2004for India's
54 Population versus Actual Population: The 1990s
2005 55
1100
2006 56
2007 57
1050
2008 58
1000
2009 59
2010 60
950
2011
61
2012 62
900
2013 63
2014
64
850
2015 65
2016
66
800
1990
1991
2017 671992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
2018 68
2019 69
Linear and
Exponential
2020
70Trend Lines for India's Population with US Census Forecast
2021 260071
2022 240072
2023 220073
2024 200074
2025 180075
2026 160076
2027 140077
2028 120078
2029 100079
2030 80080
2031 60081

6.77
871
869
6.79
890
887
6.81
909
906
6.83
929
925
6.85
949
945
6.88
969
965
6.90
990
985
6.92
1011
1006
6.94
1033
1028
6.96
1055
1050
6.98
1078
1072
7.00
1101
1095
7.03 Forecasts
1125of India's
1118
Four
Population
7.05
1149
1142
3500
7.07
1174
1166
3000
7.09
1200
1191
7.11
1225
1216
2500
7.13
1252
1242
7.15
1279
1268
2000
7.18
1306
1295
1500
7.20
1335
1323
7.22
1363
1351
1000
7.24
1393
1380
500
7.26
1423
1409
7.28
1454
1439
0
7.30
1485
1469 2030 2040 2050
1990 2000
2010 2020
7.32
1517
1501
Year
7.35
1550
1532
7.37
1583
1565
7.39
1617
1598
7.41
1652
1632
7.43
1688
1667
7.45
1724
1702
7.47
1761
1738
7.50
1799
1775
7.52
1838
1813
7.54
1878
1852
7.56
1918
1891
7.58
1960
1931
Linear Trend Forecast w ith Excel's Add Trendline
7.60
2002
1972
1200
7.62
2045
2014

400

1000
2000

2010

2020
Year

2030

2040

2050
800
000s)

200
1990

Population (1

1400
1200
1000

Linear Trend Forecast w ith Excel's Add Trendline

800

1200

2032 40082
2033 83
200
2034 84
1990
2035 85
2036 86
2037 87
2038 88
2039 89
2040 90
2041 91
2042 92
2043 93
2044 94
2045 95
2046 96
2047 97
2048 98
2049 99
2050 100

2000

2010

2020
Year

2030

2040

2050

1326
1339
1351
1363
1375
1387
1399
1411
1423
1436
1448
1460
1472
1484
1496
1508
1521
1533
1545

7.64
2089
1000
7.67
2134
7.69
2180
800
7.71
2227
7.73
2275
7.75600
2325
7.77
2375
7.79400
2426
7.82
2478
7.84200
2532
7.86
2586
7.88 0
2642
7.90 1940 2699
1950
7.92
2757
7.94
2817
7.96
2878
7.99
2940
8.01
3003
8.03
3068

Population (1000s)

600

2057
2101
2145
2191
2237
2285
2334
2383
2434
2485
2538
2592
19602647
1970
2704Year
2761
2820
2880
2941
3003

1980

1990

2000

US
Census
Forecast

Linear Trend with t

Linear Trend with Year

LinSlope
LinInt
Estimate
12.13
331.74
SE
0.24
5.47
LnTrend
LnSlope
LnInt
Estimate
0.0213
5.895
SE
0.0001
0.002
Autoregressive Model
AutoSlope
AutoInt
1014 Estimate
1.0212
0.0000
1030
SE 0.0002062971 #N/A
1046
1062
of India's Population
1077
1093
1108
1123
1138
1153
1168
1183
1198
1213
1227
1242
010 2020 2030 1256
2040 2050
1270
Year
1284
1298
1312
1325
1339
1352
1365
1377
1390
1402
1414
1426
d Forecast w ith Excel's Add Trendline
1437
1448

LinSlope
Estimate
SE

12.13
0.24

d Forecast w ith Excel's Add Trendline

1960

1970
Year

1459
1470
1481
1491
1502
1511
1521
1531
1540
1549
1558
1566
15751990
1980
1583
1591
1598
1606
1613
1620

2000

2010

rend with Year

LinInt
-23323.00
463.66

851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851

851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851

Population (millions)
900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

Year

1975

1980

1985

1990

Ln Population and Trend Line, Estim

Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for India's Population, Actual Data, Estimation Period, 1950-1990

7.00
900

6.80

850
800

6.60
Ln Population

750
700

Population(m
illions)

650
600
550
500

6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80

450

5.60

400
350
300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year

Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

Ln
Ln Trend Exp(Ln
Residual Lagged
Population Population Line
Trend)
Ln
Residual
370
5.91
5.89
363
0.02
376
5.93
5.92
371
0.01
0.02
383
5.95
5.94
379
0.01
0.01
390
5.97
5.96
387
0.01
0.01
397
5.98
5.98
395
0.00
0.01
404
6.00
6.00
404
0.00
0.00
412
6.02
6.02
413
0.00
0.00
420
6.04
6.04
422
0.00
0.00
428
6.06
6.07
431
-0.01
0.00
437
6.08
6.09
440
-0.01
-0.01
446
6.10
6.11
449
-0.01
-0.01
455
6.12
6.13
459
-0.01
-0.01
464
6.14
6.15
469
-0.01
-0.01
474
6.16
6.17
479
-0.01
-0.01
485
6.18
6.19
490
-0.01
-0.01
496
6.21
6.21
500
-0.01
-0.01
507
6.23
6.24
511
-0.01
-0.01
519
6.25
6.26
522
-0.01
-0.01
530
6.27
6.28
533
-0.01
-0.01
543
6.30
6.30
545
0.00
-0.01
555
6.32
6.32
556
0.00
0.00
568
6.34
6.34
568
0.00
0.00
581
6.37
6.36
581
0.00
0.00

5.40
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970
Year

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

595
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705
720
736
752
768
784
801
817
834
851

6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75

6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.47
6.49
6.51
6.53
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.68
6.71
6.73
6.75

593
606
619
632
646
660
674
689
704
719
734
750
766
783
800
817
835
853

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

ulation and Trend Line, Estimation Period, 1950-1990

50

Residuals versus Lagged Residuals, Ln Population

0.02
0.02

Residual (t)

0.01
0.01

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00
0.00

0.01

0.01

-0.01
-0.01
1955

1960

1965

1970
Year

1975

1980

1985

1990

-0.02
Residual (t-1)
This is evidence of substantial autocorrelation.

0.02

siduals, Ln Population Trend

0.01

0.01

sidual (t-1)

0.02

0.02

0.03

Population (millions)

Would a forecast based on more recent data do a better job?

1959-1999 Trend Lines
1950-1990 Forecasts
1959-1999 Forecasts
Year
Census Forecast Linear
Logarithmic Linear
Logarithmic
Linear
2000
1014
938
1055
992
1044
Slope
Intercept
2001
1030
950
1078
1006
1066
14.29048 277.241
2002
1046
963
1101
1020
1089
2003
1062
975
1125
1035
1112
2004
1077
987
1149
1049
1136
on 1950-1990 and 1959-1999 Data
2005
1093
999
1174Forecasts
1063 Based
1160
2006
1108
1011
1200
1078
1185
2007
1123
1023
1225
1092
1210
2008
1138
1035
1252
1106
1236
3500
2009
1153
1047
1279
1120
1262Forecast
Census
2010
1168
1060
1306
1135
1289
Linear
3000
2011
1183
1072
1335
1149
1316
Logarithmic
2012
1198
1084
1363
1163
1344
Linear
2013
1213
1096
1393
1178
1373
2500
Logarithmic
2014
1227
1108
1423
1192
1402
2015
1242
1120
1454
1206
1432
2016
1256
1132
1485
1220
1463
2000
2017
1270
1144
1517
1235
1494
2018
1284
1157
1550
1249
1526
1500
2019
1298
1169
1583
1263
1558
2020
1312
1181
1617
1278
1591
2021
1325
1193
1652
1292
1625
1000
2022
1339
1205
1688
1306
1660
2023
1352
1217
1724
1320
1695
500
2024
1365
1229
1761
1335
1731
2025
1377
1242
1799
1349
1768
2026
1390
1254
18380
1363
1806
2027
1402
1266
1878
1378
2000 2005 2010 1844
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2028
1414
1278
1918
1392
1884
Year
2029
1426
1290
1960
1406
1924
2030
1437
1302
2002
1420
1965
2031
1448
1314
2045
1435
2006
2032
1459
1326
2089
1449
2049
2033
1470
1339
2134
1463
2093
2034
1481
1351
2180
1478
2137
2035
1491
1363
2227
1492
2183
2036
1502
1375
2275
1506
2229
2037
1511
1387
2325
1521
2277
2038
1521
1399
2375
1535
2325
2039
1531
1411
2426
1549
2375
2040
1540
1423
2478
1563
2425
2041
1549
1436
2532
1578
2477
2042
1558
1448
2586
1592
2530
2043
1566
1460
2642
1606
2584
2044
1575
1472
2699
1621
2639
2045
1583
1484
2757
1635
2695
2046
1591
1496
2817
1649
2752

2047
2048
2049
2050

1598
1606
1613
1620

1508
1521
1533
1545

2878
2940
3003
3068

1663
1678
1692
1706

2811
2871
2932
2994

99 Trend Lines
Logarithmic
Slope
Intercept
0.021072 5.897312

1959-1999 Data

2035 2040 2045 2050

Data Sources
US Census Historical Data and Projections have changed between 2002 and 2004.
Penn World Tables data conflicts with US Census
US Census 2002 retrieval
Source: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=in
US Census June 2004 retrieval
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsprd
Penn World Tables
Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1
Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP)
October 2002.
http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt61_form.php
US Census Projections (2002)
India
Demographic Indicators: 2000 and 2025
2000
Births per 1,000 population...........
Deaths per 1,000 population.........
Rate of natural increase (percent)..
Annual rate of growth (percent).....
Life expectancy at birth (years).....
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births.
Total fertility rate (per woman)......

2025
17
8
0.9
0.9
70.9
30
2.2

25
9
1.6
1.6
62.5
65
3.1

Midyear Population Estimates and Average Annual Period Growth Rates:

1950 to 2050
(Population in thousands, rate in percent)

Year Population

Year

Population Period

Growth
Rate

1950
1960
1970
1980
1990

369,880
445,857
555,043
690,462
850,558

1996 948,911
1997 965,334
1998 981,666
1999 997,892
2000 1,014,004

1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000

1.9
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.8

1991
1992

866,924
882,946

2010 1,168,205 2000-2010

2020 1,311,747 2010-2020

1.4
1.2

1993
1994

899,227
915,777

2030 1,437,103 2020-2030

2040 1,539,911 2030-2040

0.9
0.7

1995

932,417

2050 1,619,582 2040-2050

0.5

US Census Bureau (retrieved 2002)

US Census Bureau (retrieved June 2004)

Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961

Population
369880000
376222000
382871000
389813000
397016000
404478000
412204000
420207000
428486000
437037000

Millions
369.9
376.2
382.9
389.8
397.0
404.5
412.2
420.2
428.5
437.0

445857000
454946000

445.9
454.9

Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961

1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

464399526
474255037
484755786
495736844
506966654
518502697
530354276
542531001
555042800
567843145
581159491
594732681
608289965
621911145
635592992
649103387
662524021
676277624
690462195
705308228
720467366
735902165
752049159
768318059
784462082
800754800
817232570

464.4
474.3
484.8
495.7
507.0
518.5
530.4
542.5
555.0
567.8
581.2
594.7
608.3
621.9
635.6
649.1
662.5
676.3
690.5
705.3
720.5
735.9
752.0
768.3
784.5
800.8
817.2

1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

Population Millions
3.7E+008
369.9
3.8E+008
376.2
3.8E+008
382.9
3.9E+008
389.8
4.0E+008
397.0
4.0E+008
404.5
4.1E+008
412.2
4.2E+008
420.2
4.3E+008
428.5
4.4E+008
437.0

Penn World Tables Data

Discrepancy
with 2002
Census
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Year
Population
1950 368633.3
1951 374563.1
1952 380492.9
1953 386422.6
1954 392352.4
1955 398282.1
1956 406188.5
1957 415083.1
1958 422989.5
1959 431884.1

4.5E+008
4.5E+008

445.9
454.9

0.0
0.0

1960
434849
1961 444470.4

4.6E+008
4.7E+008
4.8E+008
5.0E+008
5.1E+008
5.2E+008
5.3E+008
5.4E+008
5.6E+008
5.7E+008
5.8E+008
5.9E+008
6.1E+008
6.2E+008
6.3E+008
6.5E+008
6.6E+008
6.7E+008
6.9E+008
7.0E+008
7.2E+008
7.3E+008
7.5E+008
7.6E+008
7.8E+008
7.9E+008
8.1E+008

464.4
474.3
484.8
495.7
507.0
518.5
530.4
542.5
555.0
567.8
580.8
594.1
607.3
620.5
633.8
647.0
660.0
673.3
687.0
701.4
716.1
731.0
746.7
762.4
778.0
793.7
809.6

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.4
4.9
5.4
5.9
6.5
7.1
7.7

1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

454584.9
465132.6
476060.9
487324
498883.7
510708.6
522774.6
535064.7
547569
560267.5
573129.9
586219.8
599642.7
613459
627632.4
642133.6
656940.5
672020.9
687332
702821.2
718425.6
734071.9
749676.9
765147
781893
798680
815590

1989
1990

833833568
850558120

833.8
850.6

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031

866924093
882946109
899226905
915777189
932416746
948910783
965334078
981666198
997892285
1014003817
1029991145
1045845226

866.9
882.9
899.2
915.8
932.4
948.9
965.3
981.7
997.9
1014.0
1030.0
1045.8

1061557965
1077116060
1092502123
1107777340
1123003245
1138162129
1153237119
1168204502
1183076339
1197867377
1212557748
1227132500
1241572118
1255888663
1270091185
1284151435
1298044413
1311747009
1325263315
1338596566
1351722681
1364618152
1377264176
1389678841
1401882702
1413863936
1425608209
1437103148
1448368760

1061.6
1077.1
1092.5
1107.8
1123.0
1138.2
1153.2
1168.2
1183.1
1197.9
1212.6
1227.1
1241.6
1255.9
1270.1
1284.2
1298.0
1311.7
1325.3
1338.6
1351.7
1364.6
1377.3
1389.7
1401.9
1413.9
1425.6
1437.1
1448.4

1989 8.3E+008
1990 8.4E+008
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031

825.6
841.7

8.3
8.9

1989
1990

832535
849515

8.6E+008
8.7E+008
8.9E+008
9.1E+008
9.2E+008
9.4E+008
9.5E+008
9.7E+008
9.9E+008
1.0E+009
1.0E+009
1.0E+009

857.4
873.2
889.3
905.6
922.1
938.4
954.6
970.8
986.8
1002.7
1018.5
1034.2

9.5
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.9
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.7

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

866530.4
882300
898200
913600
929358
945611.8
962377.7
979672.9
997515.2
1015923

1.0E+009
1.1E+009
1.1E+009
1.1E+009
1.1E+009
1.1E+009
1.1E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.2E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.3E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009
1.4E+009

1049.7
1065.1
1080.3
1095.4
1110.4
1125.4
1140.2
1155.0
1169.7
1184.3
1198.8
1213.2
1227.5
1241.6
1255.7
1269.6
1283.3
1296.8
1310.2
1323.4
1336.4
1349.1
1361.6
1373.9
1386.0
1397.8
1409.4
1420.8
1431.9

11.9
12.0
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.7
13.9
14.1
14.3
14.4
14.6
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.8
15.9
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.5

2032
1459427933
2033
1470275936
2034
1480907557
2035
1491319550
2036
1501504651
2037
1511456849
2038
1521176128
2039
1530661146
2040
1539911008
2041
1548928301
2042
1557715058
2043
1566269571
2044
1574589693
2045
1582673972
2046
1590523506
2047
1598139583
2048
1605521642
2049
1612669068
2050
1619582271
------------- --------------------

1459.4
1470.3
1480.9
1491.3
1501.5
1511.5
1521.2
1530.7
1539.9
1548.9
1557.7
1566.3
1574.6
1582.7
1590.5
1598.1
1605.5
1612.7
1619.6

2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

1.4E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.5E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009
1.6E+009

1442.8
1453.5
1464.0
1474.3
1484.4
1494.2
1503.8
1513.2
1522.3
1531.2
1539.9
1548.3
1556.6
1564.5
1572.3
1579.8
1587.1
1594.2
1601.0

16.6
16.7
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
17.8
17.9
18.0
18.1
18.2
18.3
18.4
18.5
18.6

Penn World Tables Data

Millions
368.6
374.6
380.5
386.4
392.4
398.3
406.2
415.1
423.0
431.9

Discrepancy
with 2002
Census
1.2
1.7
2.4
3.4
4.7
6.2
6.0
5.1
5.5
5.2

434.8
444.5

11.0
10.5

454.6
465.1
476.1
487.3
498.9
510.7
522.8
535.1
547.6
560.3
573.1
586.2
599.6
613.5
627.6
642.1
656.9
672.0
687.3
702.8
718.4
734.1
749.7
765.1
781.9
798.7
815.6

9.8
9.1
8.7
8.4
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.6
8.0
8.5
8.6
8.5
8.0
7.0
5.6
4.3
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.4
3.2
2.6
2.1
1.6

832.5
849.5

1.3
1.0

866.5
882.3
898.2
913.6
929.4
945.6
962.4
979.7
997.5
1015.9

0.4
0.6
1.0
2.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.0
0.4
-1.9

Q&A for IndiaPopulation.xls

Show the effect of using t versus Year on Linear, Log-Linear, and autoregressive models.
What do you conclude?

Year

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

Pop (millions) Lagged Pop

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

370
376
383
390
397
404
412
420
428
437
446
455
464
474
485
496
507
519
530
543
555
568
581
595
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705
720

370
376
383
390
397
404
412
420
428
437
446
455
464
474
485
496
507
519
530
543
555
568
581
595
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705

USING t as the X variable

Pred Y = b0 + b1t

LN Pop

5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58

12.13063 331.7372
0.235355 5.469167
0.985532 17.83119
2656.552

39

844654.1

12400.1

USING Year as the X variable

Put
your
results
here

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

736
752
768
784
801
817
834
851

720
736
752
768
784
801
817
834

6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75

as the X variable

ear as the X variable

Pred ln Y = b0 + b1t
0.02134 5.894656

Pred Yt = b1Yt-1
1.021248

8.6E-005 0.001992

0.000206 #N/A

0.999371 0.006493

0.999998 0.762423

61997.55

24506240

39

2.614078 0.001644

39

14245209 22.67027