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Automobile March 2015 PDF
Automobile March 2015 PDF
8%
40
CAGR: 8% 28.8
30
16.9
20 Twowheeler production to rise
Worlds second-largest two
10 from 16.9 million in FY2014 to
wheeler manufacturer
0 28.8 million by FY2021E
FY14 FY21
FY14 FY21
15
CAGR: 18% 10.0
10
Passenger vehicle production
3.1
Passenger vehicle sales to 5 to increase from 3.1 million in
nearly triple by 2021E FY2014 to 10 million in
0
FY14 FY21
FY2021E
FY14 FY21
Source: IHS, (National Electric Mobility Mission Plan) NEMMP 2020, ACMA, Aranca Research;
Note: E Estimate
FY13 Growing demand
Growing demand Innovation opportunities FY16E
Strong growth in demand due to Tata Nano and the upcoming Pixel
Market rising income, middle class, and a have opened up the potentially Market
size: young population is likely to propel large ultra low-cost car segment size:
India among the worlds top five Innovation is likely to intensify
USD67.7 auto manufacturers by 2015 USD145
among engine technology and
billion Growth in export demand is set to alternative fuels
billion
accelerate
Advantage
India
Rising investments Policy support
India has significant cost The government aims to develop
advantages; auto firms save 10-25 India as a global manufacturing as
per cent on operations vis--vis well as R&D hub
Europe and Latin America There has been a wide array of
A large pool of skilled manpower policy support in the form of sops,
and a growing technology base taxes and FDI encouragement
would induce greater investments
0.6 million
units (1992)
2008 onwards
19932007
More than 35 market
0.4 million Sector de-licensed in players
units (1982) 198392
1993 Removal of most import
Major Original controls
Joint Venture (JV):
Equipment Indian companies gaining
Indian government and
Manufacturers (OEMs) acceptance on a global
Before 1982 Suzuki formed Maruti
started assembly scale
Udyog; commenced
operations in India Setting up of National
Closed market production in 1983
Imports permitted from Automotive Board to act
Five players Component
April 2001 as facilitator between the
manufacturers entered
Long waiting Introduction of value- government and industry
the market via JV
periods and added tax in 2005 Government has
outdated models Buyers market
proposed GST to support
Sellers market lower raw material cost
Source: Tata Motors, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), Aranca Research
Notes: JV Joint Venture, GST: Goods and Service Tax
Automobiles
Electric two-
wheelers
The gross turnover of automobile manufacturers in India expanded at a CAGR of 14.2 per cent over FY07-13
Excluding three wheelers, trucks accounted for the largest share of revenues (47.8 per cent in 2011)
Revenue trends over the past few years Market* break-up by revenues (2011)
(USD million)
80.0
66.3 67.6
70.0
20.4%
58.6
60.0 CAGR: 14.2% Trucks
50.0
43.3
36.6 47.8% Cars
40.0 33.3
30.5
30.0
Two Wheelers
20.0
31.8%
10.0
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Two wheeler vehicle was the fastest growing segment, representing a CAGR of 11.2 per cent, followed by passenger
vehicle segment with CAGR of 11 per cent.
18
16.9
15.7
15.5
16
13.4
14
10.5
12
10
8.0
8.4
8.5
7.6
8
6.5
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
4
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.3
1.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.4
0
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Commercial Vehicles
80.0%
Three Wheelers
19.3%
29.4%
Passenger cars
MCV & HCV
Utility vehicle
LCV
70.6%
80.7%
5.9%
18.3% 15.3%
Mopeds
Goods Carrier
Motocycles
Passenger carrier
Scooters
81.7%
78.7%
Two-wheeler segment reported the fastest growth (20.1 per cent) followed by three-wheelers (15.1 per cent) over FY0514
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.1
1.0 1.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers
Three Wheelers
67%
Commercial Vehicle
50%
33%
33%
33%
Three wheelers declined by 10.9 per cent in FY14 40%
28%
25%
25%
20%
16%
13%
20%
5%
5%
Two-wheelers registered a growth of 7.31 per cent during
7%
2%
3%
-2%
3%
0%
0%
0%
FY14 0%
-6%
-11%
Car sales rose 3 per cent following a stable government in -20%
-20%
the center
-33%
-40%
Source: SIAM, Aranca Research, News articles FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Notes: E Estimate, UV Utility Vehicle Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers
15.0
10.0
10.0 CAGR: 18%
Passenger vehicles to increase at a CAGR of 18 5.1
per cent during FY201421 5.0 3.1
-
FY14 FY16 FY21
FY14 FY16 FY21
3.0
2.4
2.0
CAGR: 19%
Commercial vehicles expected to register a CAGR 1.4
of 19 per cent during FY201421 0.7
1.0
-
FY14 FY16 FY21
FY14 FY16 FY21
40.0
CAGR: 8% 30.2
30.0
Two and three wheelers projected to expand at a 17.7 21.0
20.0
CAGR of 8 per cent during FY201421
10.0
-
FY14 FY16 FY21
FY14 FY16 FY21
India has the worlds 12th-largest HNI population, with a growth of 20.8 per cent (highest
among the top 12 countries)
Key drivers With expansion in the education and realty sectors, and increasing wealth of IT
professionals, more consumers aspire to own luxury cars
Affluent class of the country is driving the demand of the luxury cars
The Indian luxury car market is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 25 per cent during
201220 and reach 150,000 units by 2020 (accounting for 4 per cent of the estimated 6.8-
Notable million-unit domestic car market)
trends The luxury SUV segment is growing at about 50 per cent, while luxury sedans are
increasing 2530 per cent
Audi to launch A3 sedan later in the year
Source: World Wealth Report (2011) of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini, Aranca Research, News articles
Note: HNI - High Networth Individuals
The automotives industry is concentrated with leaders in each segment commanding a share of over 40 per cent
Increasing R&D investments from both the government and the private sector
Improving product-
Private sector innovation has been a key determinant of growth in the sector; two good
development
examples are Tata Nano and Tata Pixel; while the former has been a success in India, the
capabilities latter is intended for foreign markets
In FY11, the CNG market was worth more than USD330 million; CNG cars and taxis are
expected to register a CAGR of 28 per cent over FY11FY14
Alternative fuels The CNG distribution network in India is expected to increase to 250 cities by 2018 from
30 cities in 2009
Carmakers such as BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz have
started providing customised finance to customers through NBFCs
New financing options
Major MNC and Indian corporate houses are moving towards taking cars on operating
lease instead of buying them
Mahindra & Mahindra launched Verito Refresh, Quanto and Rexton in 2013
Launch of new models Tata unveiled three new models (including Zest and Bolt) after a span of nearly four years
Maruti unveiled Ciaz (Keeping India and Chinese markets in mind) and SX4 S-Cross
Each and every firm is now focusing on shelling out a chunk of their profits on
advertisement
Marketing & The idea is to make the customers more brand conscious and increasing brand
advertisement positioning
This is giving the firms differential advantage. Success today lies in structuring and
restructuring strategies
Goal of Rising
Rising income, establishing India investments from
young population as an auto- domestic and
manufacturing hub foreign players
Inviting Resulting in
Greater R&D focus; GOI Greater product
availability of has set up a innovation; market
credit and technology segmentation
financing options modernisation fund
Demand projected
Strong growth in Policy sops, FDI to remain strong,
exports encouragement making returns
attractive
0.0
BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes- FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Benz have started providing customized finance to
customers, dealers and suppliers through dedicated Car industry sales volume (mn) Car finance industry (USD bn)
Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs)
Source: Kotak Mahindra Prime, Aranca Research
Note: Greater distributional efficiencies, increasing demand
(especially from rural areas) due to rising disposable incomes
have created new markets for products within the country
Design and Manufacturing Manpower Supplier Raw
engineering skills skills costs base materials
Korea
China
Less competitive than India In competition with India Source: ACMA, Aranca Research
Automatic approval for foreign equity investment up to 100 per cent; no minimum
Auto Policy 2002 investment criteria
Encourage R&D by offering rebates on R&D expenditure
AMPs vision is to make India a preferred destination for designing and manufacturing of
Automotive Mission automobiles and achieve a market size of USD154 billion by 2016
Plan (AMP) 200616 Setting up of a technology modernisation fund focused on SMEs
Establishment of automotive training institutes, auto design centers and special auto parks
Set up at a total cost of USD388.5 million to enable the industry to be on par with global
standards
NATRiPs Nine R&D centers of excellence with focus on low-cost manufacturing and product
development solutions
Dept. of Heavy Worked towards reduction of excise duty on small cars and increase budgetary allocation
for R&D
Industries & Public
Weighted increase in R&D expenditure to 200 per cent from 150 per cent (in-house) and
Enterprises 175 per cent from 125 per cent (outsourced)
Proposal to allocate USD2.7 billion for JNNURM to bolster sales volumes of Medium and
Union Budget FY14 &
Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV). Relaxation of excise duty on small cars from 12 to 8
Budget FY15
per cent bound to help the sector in the long run
Notes: SME Small and Medium Enterprises, R&D - Research and Development, NATRiP National Automotive Testing and R&D
Infrastructure Project, AMP - Automotive Mission, JNNURM - Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission
Business description
Research, design, development and testing of vehicles
Vehicles Research & Development
Establishment (VRDE), Ahmednagar Centre of excellence for photometry, Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) and
test tracks
Indore National Automotive Test Complete testing facilities for all vehicle categories
Tracks (NATRAX) Centre of excellence for vehicle dynamics and tyre development
1.8
1.5 1.5
DelhiGurgaon 1.6
1.3
Faridabad 1.4
1.2 1.2
1.2
1.0 0.9
Ahmedabad 0.8
MumbaiPune 0.6
Nashik
0.4
Aurangabad
Kolkata 0.2
Jamshedpur
-
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Planning to double its current investment level of about USD2.5 billion over the next five years
Aims to raise its market share from 1.5 per cent in FY13 to 10 per cent by FY19
To increase the Chennai Plant capacity to 400,000 units a year in a few years time
Investing in Chennai and Sanand plants to raise capacity to 0.44 million cars & 0.61 million engines by FY14.
Bought 130 acres of land in Sanand, Gujarat
Long term strategy to export 25 per cent of vehicles and to make India compact car global production base
Is in the process of expanding its dealer network from 33 in January 2013 to 50 by 2014 end
Plans to raise the number of car offerings in the sub USD46,000 category
Aims to invest USD460 million in Rajasthan plant by 2014 to build a new assembly line for cars
This will include a new diesel engine component production and a forging plant
Plans to invest USD552-737 million over the next two to three years to develop new products
Plans to infuse USD46 million to double India capacity to 20,000 vehicles by the end of CY13
Expansion of MIDC and MoU, and to invest USD244 mn for capacity expansion in Chakan, Pune
Strong support from the The worlds cheapest car General Motors, Nissan and
government; setting up of (Tata Nano) has directed Toyota announced plans to
NATRiP centres focus on the low-income make India their global hub
Private players, such as market for small cars
Hyundai, Suzuki, GM, keen to Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda and Light vehicle sales estimated
set up R&D base in India M&M plan to jointly develop a to cross 3 million by the end
Strong education base, large technology for two-wheelers of 2012
skilled English-speaking to run on natural gas Strong export potential in ultra
manpower Electric cars likely to be a low-cost cars segment (to
Comparative advantage in sizeable market segment in developing and emerging
terms of cost the coming decade markets)
Firms both National and Tata Motors to launch
Foreign are increasing their MiniCAT, a car running on
footprints with over 1,031 compressed air, thereby
centers stepping into the next era
where cars would not require
any fossil fuel and emissions
would be almost nil
1983 1994 1997 2001 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1945 1954 1961 1977 1982 1986 1991 1998 2005 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Exchange rates (Fiscal Year) Exchange rates (Calendar Year)
Year INR equivalent of one USD Year INR equivalent of one USD
2005 45.55
200405 44.81
2006 44.34
200506 44.14
2007 39.45
200607 45.14
2008 49.21
200708 40.27
2009 46.76
2012 54.69
201011 45.62
2013 58.44
201112 46.88
Q12014 61.58
201213 54.31
Q22014 59.74
201314 60.28 Q32014 60.53
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEFs knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of
any reliance placed on this presentation.
Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on
the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.