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In Cable Delivery, Rivals Are Pouncing

LOS ANGELES — Unlike the bitter disputes that have broken out between TV networks
and cable operators — Fox versus Time Warner Cable, ABC versus Cablevision — the
latest round of fee negotiations between the Walt Disney Company and Time Warner
have, so far, been quite amicable.
But those peaceable dealings were not stopping Verizon Communications from going
after Time Warner’s flank on Friday. In a move that underscored the shifting nature of
these Big TV brawls, Verizon ads warned consumers that Time Warner’s contract with
Disney — supplier of ESPN, ABC and Disney Channel — expires on Sept. 2. Referring
to ABC’s dispute with Cablevision in March, when millions of viewers were deprived of
part of the Oscars, the ads asked people to pre-emptively switch to Verizon’s FiOS
service. “Count on ABC7 for the best programming. Count on FiOS for ABC7,” read an
full-page ad in The Los Angeles Times on Saturday. A similar ad on Friday in The St.
Petersburg Times of Florida tilted off ESPN: “You don’t have to wait to find out if you
will keep your favorite shows. Switch to FiOS.”
Verizon declined requests for an interview.
Analysts said Verizon’s aggression — it is highly unusual for a so-called switch campaign
to pop up almost two months ahead of a deadline — is fresh evidence that cable giants
like Time Warner are under increasing pressure.
On one side are insurgents in the pay-TV delivery wars (Verizon, DirecTV, AT&T, Dish
Network) that are trying to build market share by offering consumers more for less. And
they are succeeding.
Six years ago, cable companies had 72 percent of the pie, satellite operators had 28
percent and telecom competitors had essentially none, according to SNL Kagan data. By
last year, however, satellite had 33 percent and telecom 5 percent, whittling down cable’s
share to 62 percent.
“We’re starting to see even more churn,” said Vince Vittore, a principal analyst at the
Yankee Group.
At the same time, all types of TV distributors have lost substantial ground in their
reluctance to pay broadcasters like ABC and Fox the same kind of fees they pay cable-
only channels like ESPN and TNT.
Cable providers have long paid substantial fees to carry cable-only channels, but until
recently paid nothing to carry traditional broadcast channels — a situation that the cash-
starved broadcast networks have fought mightily to change. When push comes to shove,
and it almost always does in these skirmishes, the broadcasters have won: ABC over
Cablevision, Fox over Time Warner.
All of which puts considerable wind into Disney’s sails, analysts say, as it moves forward
with contract talks with Time Warner, the country’s second-largest cable provider. Disney
is seeking unspecified increases in the fees Time Warner pays to carry Disney’s roster of
cable channels and the signal of certain ABC stations.
A report by RBC Capital Markets last week observed that Disney is entering the
negotiations with added leverage from programming: ABC and ESPN will carry college
football games starting in September.Still, Time Warner has a reputation for playing
hardball. Its strategy in previous bouts with suppliers has been to paint them as greedy
media giants who are happy to trample on consumers. For instance, ahead of negotiations
with Fox, Time Warner called on customers to “get tough” against programmers, and
deployed TV commercials that played like political attack ads.
“Everybody likes to trash the cable operators, but in fact if you look at their financial
statements, they’ve been seeing erosion in their margins on video for many, many years,”
said Derek Baine, an analyst for SNL Kagan. “Meanwhile, the cable networks have been
seeing margin expansion.”
Although Verizon is taking advantage of Time Warner’s position this summer, no
distributor is immune from the demands for higher payments. AT&T, an upstart like
Verizon in the TV space, is currently resisting increases sought by Rainbow Media for
channels like AMC, home to “Mad Men.” Rainbow warned on Friday that AMC would
go dark for AT&T television customers on Wednesday unless a new deal was reached.
Cable providers dispute the notion that they hemorrhage customers to rivals when
suppliers yank channels in a demand for bigger payments. In the first quarter, Scripps
Networks pulled the Food Network from Cablevision and Disney pulled ABC. But
Cablevision gained about 900 basic cable customers during the period. In other words,
even though some subscribers dropped the service, more than enough new ones signed up
to make up the difference. Time Warner is trying a new strategy when it comes to those
fees broadcasters have been demanding for the right to retransmit their signals. Time
Warner was among the companies that signed a petition in March calling for reforms to
retransmission laws; cable companies argue that the current rules unfairly favor
broadcasters like ABC.
After Time Warner submitted an analysis to the Federal Communications Commission
backing up its position, Disney submitted a point-by-point rebuttal — an indication that
calm heads may ultimately not prevail in negotiations between the two companies.
“We think it’s a quiet before the storm,” wrote RBC in its report. Mr. Baine of SNL
Kagan said, “As time goes by, we’re seeing that these things are getting really, really
vicious.”
Disney declined to comment. A Time Warner spokesman, Justin Venech, said, “We are
currently engaged in negotiations with Disney, those negotiations continue in good faith,
and we are hopeful that we will reach an agreement.”
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