LAMPIRAN 1

Data statistik tingkat Pengangguran, Inflasi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Jumlah

Penduduk, dan tingkat kemiskinan Kota Medan

Tahun pengangguran Inflasi Pertumbuhan Jumlah Kemiskinan

Ekonomi Penduduk

2000 12.28 5.09 4.40 1904273 6.38

2001 13.35 15.51 4.60 1926520 7.25

2002 13.28 9.49 4.50 1963882 7.12

2003 15.23 4.46 5.06 1993602 7.25

2004 14.43 6.64 5.46 2006142 7.13

2005 12.46 22.91 5.48 2036185 7.06

2006 15.01 5.97 7.77 2067288 7.77

2007 14.49 6.42 7.78 2083156 7.17

2008 13.08 10.63 6.89 2102105 14.43

2009 14.27 2.69 6.55 2121053 9.58

2010 13.11 7.65 7.16 2097610 10.05

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 2

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada Level-Intercept

Null Hypothesis: UN has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.778463 0.0215

Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(UN)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:58
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

UN(-1) -1.175938 0.311221 -3.778463 0.0054

C 16.29683 4.302051 3.788154 0.0053

R-squared 0.640882 Mean dependent var 0.083000

Adjusted R-squared 0.595992 S.D. dependent var 1.524868
S.E. of regression 0.969231 Akaike info criterion 2.952229
Sum squared resid 7.515273 Schwarz criterion 3.012746
Log likelihood -12.76115 F-statistic 14.27678
Durbin-Watson stat 2.307051 Prob(F-statistic) 0.005400

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 3

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pengangguran (UN) pada 2nd Difference-None

Null Hypothesis: D(UN,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.102837 0.0001

Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(UN,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(UN(-1),2) -2.852265 0.401567 -7.102837 0.0009

D(UN(-1),3) 0.896888 0.239155 3.750232 0.0133

R-squared 0.936632 Mean dependent var -0.624286

Adjusted R-squared 0.923958 S.D. dependent var 5.065247
S.E. of regression 1.396776 Akaike info criterion 3.741166
Sum squared resid 9.754912 Schwarz criterion 3.725712
Log likelihood -11.09408 Durbin-Watson stat 1.100802

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 4

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada Level-Intercept

Null Hypothesis: INFLASI has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.231799 0.0520

Test critical values: 1% level -4.420595
5% level -3.259808
10% level -2.771129

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:54
Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

INFLASI(-1) -1.840637 0.569540 -3.231799 0.0179

D(INFLASI(-1)) 0.499927 0.358144 1.395882 0.2122
C 16.58651 5.772837 2.873200 0.0283

R-squared 0.718825 Mean dependent var -0.873333

Adjusted R-squared 0.625099 S.D. dependent var 9.464919
S.E. of regression 5.795287 Akaike info criterion 6.613169
Sum squared resid 201.5121 Schwarz criterion 6.678910
Log likelihood -26.75926 F-statistic 7.669495
Durbin-Watson stat 2.032693 Prob(F-statistic) 0.022230

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 5

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Inflasi (INFLASI) pada 2nd Difference-None

Null Hypothesis: D(INFLASI,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.549683 0.0009

Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:48
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(INFLASI(-1),2) -2.560831 0.562859 -4.549683 0.0061

D(INFLASI(-1),3) 0.641282 0.320000 2.004006 0.1014

R-squared 0.873745 Mean dependent var 1.701429

Adjusted R-squared 0.848494 S.D. dependent var 31.43728
S.E. of regression 12.23659 Akaike info criterion 8.081695
Sum squared resid 748.6708 Schwarz criterion 8.066241
Log likelihood -26.28593 Durbin-Watson stat 2.793380

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 6

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk(JUMLHPEND) pada Level-

Intercept

Null Hypothesis: JUMLHPEND has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.188213 0.2204

Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:56
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

JUMLHPEND(-1) -0.139625 0.063808 -2.188213 0.0601

C 301435.5 128997.1 2.336761 0.0477

R-squared 0.374427 Mean dependent var 19333.70

Adjusted R-squared 0.296230 S.D. dependent var 16940.73
S.E. of regression 14211.75 Akaike info criterion 22.13838
Sum squared resid 1.62E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.19890
Log likelihood -108.6919 F-statistic 4.788275
Durbin-Watson stat 1.633501 Prob(F-statistic) 0.060088

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 7

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Penduduk (JUMLHPEND) pada 2nd Difference-
None

Null Hypothesis: D(JUMLHPEND,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.346164 0.0277

Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.346164
10% level -1.598068

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(JUMLHPEND,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:53
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(JUMLHPEND(-1),2) -2.430303 1.035862 -2.346164 0.0659

D(JUMLHPEND(-1),3) 0.874228 0.599746 1.457662 0.2047

R-squared 0.521481 Mean dependent var -4964.143

Adjusted R-squared 0.425778 S.D. dependent var 25163.37
S.E. of regression 19068.16 Akaike info criterion 22.78438
Sum squared resid 1.82E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.76893
Log likelihood -77.74534 Durbin-Watson stat 0.555754

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 8

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada Level-Intercept

Null Hypothesis: KEMISKINAN has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.815975 0.7692

Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

KEMISKINAN(-1) -0.329260 0.403518 -0.815975 0.4381

C 2.777515 2.973191 0.934187 0.3775

R-squared 0.076832 Mean dependent var 0.367000

Adjusted R-squared -0.038564 S.D. dependent var 1.042370
S.E. of regression 1.062278 Akaike info criterion 3.135565
Sum squared resid 9.027481 Schwarz criterion 3.196082
Log likelihood -13.67783 F-statistic 0.665815
Durbin-Watson stat 1.792499 Prob(F-statistic) 0.438133

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 9

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Jumlah Kemiskinan pada 2nd Difference-None

Null Hypothesis: D(KEMISKINAN,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.227332 0.0003

Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(KEMISKINAN,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:56
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(KEMISKINAN(-1),2) -3.338945 0.638747 -5.227332 0.0034

D(KEMISKINAN(-1),3) 1.510489 0.520603 2.901422 0.0337

R-squared 0.901406 Mean dependent var -0.391429

Adjusted R-squared 0.881687 S.D. dependent var 3.062599
S.E. of regression 1.053433 Akaike info criterion 3.176943
Sum squared resid 5.548610 Schwarz criterion 3.161489
Log likelihood -9.119300 Durbin-Watson stat 1.358791

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 10

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (PERTUM) pada Level-
Intercept

Null Hypothesis: PERTUM has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.153831 0.6482

Test critical values: 1% level -4.297073
5% level -3.212696
10% level -2.747676

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20
observations and may not be accurate for a sample size of 10

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 18:57
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2010
Included observations: 10 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

PERTUM(-1) -0.241456 0.209265 -1.153831 0.2819

C 1.688278 1.251207 1.349319 0.2142

R-squared 0.142673 Mean dependent var 0.276000

Adjusted R-squared 0.035507 S.D. dependent var 0.835746
S.E. of regression 0.820774 Akaike info criterion 2.619720
Sum squared resid 5.389365 Schwarz criterion 2.680237
Log likelihood -11.09860 F-statistic 1.331325
Durbin-Watson stat 1.925537 Prob(F-statistic) 0.281873

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 11

Hasil Uji Akar Unit untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi(PERTUMB) pada 2nd

Difference-None

Null Hypothesis: D(PERTUM,2) has a unit root

Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-Statistic Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.083465 0.0079

Test critical values: 1% level -2.937216
5% level -2.006292
10% level -1.598068

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(PERTUM,3)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/22/13 Time: 09:57
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2010
Included observations: 7 after adjustments

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

D(PERTUM(-1),2) -2.085054 0.676205 -3.083465 0.0274

D(PERTUM(-1),3) 0.541430 0.406645 1.331457 0.2405

R-squared 0.746185 Mean dependent var 0.041429

Adjusted R-squared 0.695422 S.D. dependent var 2.330976
S.E. of regression 1.286432 Akaike info criterion 3.576578
Sum squared resid 8.274530 Schwarz criterion 3.561123
Log likelihood -10.51802 Durbin-Watson stat 2.263511

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 12

Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Inflasi Dengan

pengangguran

Date: 01/22/13 Time: 10:59

Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: INFLASI UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None 0.815380 15.30583 15.49471 0.0534

At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510

Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.815380 15.20512 14.26460 0.0354

At most 1 0.011127 0.100704 3.841466 0.7510

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

INFLASI UN
0.160264 -0.981899
0.376907 2.294866

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(INFLASI) -6.651238 -0.276447

D(UN) 1.186826 -0.003164

Universitas Sumatera Utara

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -29.62885

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

INFLASI UN
1.000000 -6.126746
(2.39218)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(INFLASI) -1.065956
(0.29451)
D(UN) 0.190206
(0.04053)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 13

Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Jumlah Penduduk

Dengan pengangguran

Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:01

Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: JUMLHPEND UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.897578 27.95126 15.49471 0.0004

At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064

Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.897578 20.50789 14.26460 0.0045

At most 1 * 0.562659 7.443370 3.841466 0.0064

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

JUMLHPEND UN
-1.04E-05 1.774187
1.43E-05 0.794246

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(JUMLHPEND
) 6215.248 -9945.536
D(UN) -0.513919 -0.148766

Universitas Sumatera Utara

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -96.71027

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

JUMLHPEND UN
1.000000 -170130.8
(27548.5)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(JUMLHPEND
) -0.064815
(0.06261)
D(UN) 5.36E-06
(1.2E-06)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 14

Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Kemiskinan Dengan

pengangguran

Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:02

Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: KEMISKINAN UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.845508 17.50519 15.49471 0.0246

At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None * 0.845508 16.80850 14.26460 0.0194

At most 1 0.074490 0.696694 3.841466 0.4039

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

KEMISKINAN UN
-2.163365 2.285567
5.459825 -1.155267

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(KEMISKINA
N) -0.185665 -0.224313
D(UN) -1.202699 -0.051595

Universitas Sumatera Utara

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -17.46203

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

KEMISKINAN UN
1.000000 -1.056487
(0.15016)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(KEMISKINA
N) 0.401662
(0.79885)
D(UN) 2.601877
(0.52995)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 15

Hasil Uji Kointegrasi dengan Metode Johansen antara Pertumbuhan

Ekonomi Dengan pengangguran

Date: 01/22/13 Time: 11:03

Sample (adjusted): 2002 2010
Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: PERTUM UN
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None 0.671380 11.28969 15.49471 0.1943

At most 1 0.131995 1.274022 3.841466 0.2590

Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None 0.671380 10.01567 14.26460 0.2109

At most 1 0.131995 1.274022 3.841466 0.2590

Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

PERTUM UN
0.056448 1.612029
0.937120 -0.812927

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(PERTUM) -0.408045 -0.226456

D(UN) -1.083703 0.027810

Universitas Sumatera Utara

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -19.20184

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

PERTUM UN
1.000000 28.55786
(9.18995)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(PERTUM) -0.023033
(0.01731)
D(UN) -0.061173
(0.01924)

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 16

Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Inflasi dengan Pengangguran

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:20
Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

UN does not Granger Cause INFLASI 8 2.11830 0.45862

INFLASI does not Granger Cause UN 0.41298 0.78246

Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Jumlah Penduduk dengan Pengangguran

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:21
Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

UN does not Granger Cause JUMLHPEND 8 0.71408 0.67811

JUMLHPEND does not Granger Cause UN 290.619 0.04309

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 17

Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Kemiskinan dengan Pengangguran

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:22
Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

UN does not Granger Cause KEMISKINAN 8 6.48925 0.27912

KEMISKINAN does not Granger Cause UN 2.36563 0.43807

Hasil Uji Granger Causality antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan

Pengangguran Ekonomi

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests

Date: 01/29/13 Time: 17:24
Sample: 2000 2010
Lags: 3

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

UN does not Granger Cause PERTUM 8 1.01722 0.60547

PERTUM does not Granger Cause UN 0.52694 0.73789

Universitas Sumatera Utara