The conditional probability of an event B, in relation to event A, is the probability

that event B will occur given the knowledge that an event A has already occurred.

The probability changes if you have partial information.

This "affected" probability is called conditional probability.

Notation for conditional probability: P(B|A)

read ... the probability of B given A.

• If events A and B are independent (where event A has no effect on the probability
of event B), then the conditional probability of event B given event A is simply
the probability of event B.

• If events A and B are dependent (where event A has effect on the probability of
event B), then we saw that the probability that both events occur is defined by:
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A).

Dividing both sides of this equation by P(A) gives us our formula for conditional
probability of event B given event A, where event A affects the probability of event
B:

Assuming P(A),
n(A) are not zero.
Example 1: A bag contains 12 red M&Ms, 12 blue M&Ms, and 12 green
M&Ms. What is the probability of drawing two M&Ms of the same color in a
row?

Answer:
Intuitive: There are a total of 36 M&Ms in the bag. You draw a blue M&M and
eat it. There are now 11 blue M&Ms remaining in the bag. There are 35 total
M&Ms now remaining. You will now need to draw another blue M&M. The
conditional probability will be:

P(Draw blue M&M | First M&M was blue) = .

Using the formula:

P(A and B) =

P(A) =

P(Draw same as first color M&M | First M&M color) = P(B | A) =

Example 2: In a school of 1200 students, 250 are seniors, 150 students take math,
and 40 students are seniors and are also taking math. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen student who is a senior, is taking math?

Answer: These questions can be confusing. It sounds, at first read, that they are
asking for the probability of choosing a student who is a senior and who is taking
math. Not quite right!
It helps to re-word the question into:
Find the probability that the student is taking math, given that the student is a
senior.
B = the student is taking math
n(A) = the student is a senior = 250.
n(A and B) = the student is a senior and is taking math = 40.

The probability of an event refers to the likelihood that the event will occur.

How to Interpret Probability

Mathematically, the probability that an event will occur is expressed as a number between 0 and
1.Notationally, the probability of event A is represented by P(A).

 If P(A) equals zero, event A will almost definitely not occur.

 If P(A) is close to zero, there is only a small chance that event A will occur.
 If P(A) equals 0.5, there is a 50-50 chance that event A will occur.
  If P(A) is close to one, there is a strong chance that event A will occur.
 If P(A) equals one, event A will almost definitely occur.

The sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes is equal to one. This means, for example, that
if an experiment can have three possible outcomes (A, B, and C), then P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1.

How to Compute Probability: Equally Likely Outcomes

Sometimes, a statistical experiment can have n possible outcomes, each of which is equally
likely. Suppose a subset of r outcomes are classified as "successful" outcomes.

The probability that the experiment results in a successful outcome (S) is:

P(S) = ( Number of successful outcomes ) / ( Total number of equally likely outcomes ) = r / n

How to Compute Probability: Law of Large Numbers

One can also think about the probability of an event in terms of its long-run relative frequency.
The relative frequency of an event is the number of times an event occurs, divided by the total
number of trials.

P(A) = ( Frequency of Event A ) / ( Number of Trials )

Addition Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, the probability that
A or B will occur is the sum of the probability of each event.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Let's use this addition rule to find the probability for Experiment 1.

Experiment 1: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 2 or a

5?

Probabilities: 1
P(2) =
6
1
P(5) =
6
P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5)
1 1
= +
6 6
2
=
6
 1
=
3

In each of the three experiments above, the events are mutually exclusive. Let's look at
some experiments in which the events are non-mutually exclusive.
Addition Rule 2: When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive, the
probability that A or B will occur is:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

In the rule above, P(A and B) refers to the overlap of the two events. Let's apply this
rule to some other experiments.

Experiment 4: A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of 52 playing

cards. What is the probability of choosing a king or a club?
Probabilities: P(king or club) = P(king) + P(club) - P(king of clubs)
4 13 1
= + -
52 52 52
16
=
52
4
=
13

In Experiment 4, the events are non-mutually exclusive. The addition causes

the king of clubs to be counted twice, so its probability must be subtracted.
When two events are non-mutually exclusive, a different addition rule must be
used.

Multiplication Rule

A method for finding the probability that both of two events occur.