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Strength Random Variables: Loading Random Variables:

Tensile strength; Normal upstream reservoir elevation;


Peak cohesion; Flood upstream reservoir increase;
Residual cohesion; Silt elevation;
Peak friction coefficient; Silt volumetric weight;
Residual friction coefficient; Drain efficiency;
Floating debris;
Ice load;
Last applied force;
Horizontal peak ground acceleration.
Figure 7. Probabilistic analysis input data.

1x10-2 1

Probability of failure (sliding mode)


Annual frequency of exceedance

0.8

1x10-3
Annual frequency 0.6
of exceedence
of reservoir elevation

0.4
-4
1x10

Probability 0.2
of failure

1x10-5 0

30.6 30.8 31 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.8


Reservoir elevation (m)
Figure 8. Probabilistic safety analyses.

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