CE262 2017 Diagnostic – August 25, 2017

Problem 1: (20 pts)

A small neighborhood has only one entrance to the main arterial which allows access to the freeway
ramp, and it is currently controlled by minor-street stop control. As a result, people wishing to leave the
neighborhood and get to the freeway have to wait for a large enough gap to turn onto the arterial. The
probability density function of the gap is defined as:

−𝜆𝑥 𝑥 ≥ 0,
𝑓(𝑥| 𝜆) = {𝜆𝑒
0 𝑥 < 0.
a) (10 points) A concerned neighbor went out and sat by the road for a while, timing the gaps and
came up with the following 10 gap observations:

x (sec) = 2 5
3 5
7 4
6 3
5 8

Calculate the associated MLE 𝜆̂.

b) (10 points) The necessary gap to safely enter the arterial is 6 seconds. If we approximate 𝜆 by its
MLE, what is the probability that the next observed value will be more than 6 seconds?
Problem 2: (20 pts)
I have five coins in my pocket, three of which are fair coins, and two which land heads two thirds of the
time.

a) (5 points) If I define X as the result of drawing and flipping a coin at random from my pocket,
define pX (x), the probability mass function of X.

b) (10 points) If I define Y as the result of drawing and flipping one of the remaining four coins at
random from my pocket, define pY (y), the probability mass function of Y.

c) (5 points) What is the probability that X and Y are both heads?

Problem 3: (20 pts)
A shopping center has begun getting complaints that there isn’t enough parking after a new popular
store started leasing a vacancy, despite the circulation study not anticipating any need to add additional
parking. There are 300 parking stalls and the city’s standard is an average peak-hour parking occupancy
of no more than 85%. At the request of the shopping center, the new store pays for a week-long parking
occupancy study which shows an average of 270 parking stalls are full during the peak hour and that
cars are parked for an average of 30 minutes.

a) (5 points) State the null and alternative hypothesis.

b) (10 points) Under the null hypothesis, what is the probability of observing an average occupancy
of 270 parking stalls over a week?

c) (5 points) Using an  = 0.05 significance level, should the new store have to pay for additional
parking?
Problem 4: (20 pts)
After seeing an increase in the number of crashes caused by red light runners at a specific intersection,
the police department decided to increase enforcement at that intersection.

a) (5 points) Define the possible events for a driver approaching the signal and write an expression
for the probability that a red-light runner is caught by the police and given a ticket. Consider
that a police officer is not stationed 24 hours a day and some drivers will see the officers and
adapt their behavior.

b) (10 points) You can assume that 1% of drivers approaching a red light run the red light and 5% of
red-light runners cause a crash. An officer is stationed adjacent to the intersection during the
peak hours, during which 25% of traffic passes by. While the police officer is stationed there,
75% of potential red-light runners see the officer and stop at the red light. What percent of
crashes are reduced and what percent of red light runners are given tickets?

c) (5 points) After the initial enforcement period, red light cameras are installed instead and catch
100% of red light runners but 20% of tickets generated are thrown out for various reasons. After
an adjustment period, 90% of potential red-light runners stop running the red light. What
percent of crashes are reduced and what percent of red light runners are given tickets?
Problem 5: (20 pts)
A city has recently installed Bluetooth detectors at two ends of a corridor as part of a travel time study
to determine if a corridor retiming effort is needed.

a) (5 points) If the freeflow time to travel the two mile corridor is three minutes and there are
eight signals located along the corridor, each of which, before the retiming, has a 25% chance of
stopping a car and adding an average of 15 seconds to the travel time, what is the expected
value for the travel time with no delay due to congestion.

b) (10 points) We want to determine what percentage, 𝑘 ∈ (0,1), of cars that are traveling the full
length of the corridor that the Bluetooth detectors are picking up. Using tube counters, we
identify the total flow on the corridor during a sample hour is 𝑞0 and the blue tooth detectors
record 𝑋0 = 𝑥0 travel times. Using a binomal to model the random variable 𝑋0 . The MLE of k is
defined as:
𝑥0
𝑘̂ =
𝑞0

What is the mean squared error (MSE) associated with 𝑘̂?

c) (5 points) We determine that the Bluetooth detectors are picking up 5% of the total volume and
we get travel time data for 500 cars during the peak period with each car having an average
travel time of 4 minutes and a standard deviation of 20 seconds. What are the parameters and
type of the distribution that would describe the random variable defined as the vehicle hours
travelled (VHT) for the corridor during the peak period?