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Atlas Copco - 4. Statistical Analysis, PG PDF
Atlas Copco - 4. Statistical Analysis, PG PDF
Chapter ..............................................................................Page
1. Introduction.......................................................................4
2. Basic statistics ...................................................................5
2.1 Variation........................................................................5
2.2 Distribution...................................................................6
2.3 Histogram .....................................................................6
2.4 Mean value ...................................................................6
2.5 Standard deviation ........................................................7
2.6 Estimation of a normal distribution .............................9
Sample mean and standard deviation ...............................10
3. Accuracy requirements ..................................................11
3.1 Meanshift and combined scatter.................................11
Example ............................................................................12
4. Understanding processes................................................13
5. Capability ........................................................................14
5.1 Cp................................................................................14
5.2 Cpk..............................................................................15
5.3 When is a process capable? ........................................16
5.4 Machine capability indices.........................................18
5.5 What else is there to think about? ..............................18
6. Control charts .................................................................19
6.1 X-bar charts ................................................................20
6.2 The subgroup ..............................................................21
6.3 Alarms.........................................................................22
6.4 Range charts ...............................................................22
6.5 Control charts conclusion...........................................23
Summary .........................................................................23
Appendix..........................................................................24
A1. Example of statistics calculation ...............................24
A2. Example of capability calculation .............................28
A3. Example of control chart calculation ........................29
A4. Analysis of assembly tool performance –
ISO 5393 Calculation ................................................32
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 3
1. Introduction
4 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S
2. Basic statistics
2.1 Variation
Understanding statistics is much about understanding varia-
tion. Variation is present everywhere, in nature as well as in
industrial processes. In industrial processes, even a slight
deviation from the target value, a dimension for instance,
may have strong influence on the functionality of the finis-
hed product. This means it is important to understand, and
in some cases control, variation.
Figure 1. Variations in air
There are two different kinds of variation. Random varia- pressure and operator
tions are predictable, always present and with many contribu- influence are examples of
ting causes. Examples of random variations are small varia- random variations.
tions in hole diameter, inconsistent friction, operator influen-
ce and variations in air pressure. It is hard to isolate one of
these causes. The variations are tackled by improvement of
the process. Random variations are natural and depend on the
process and its environment. They are also called common
causes.
Systematic variations are sporadic and isolated. They are
not predictable but it is often easy to pinpoint the cause. They
are tackled by controlling the process. Systematic variation
has a determined cause and can often be identified and elimi-
nated. Examples are machine adjustments, wear of tools and
human error. They are also called special causes. Figure 2. Human errors like
missing washers and using
A great deal of importance has been placed on the use of wrong screws are exam-
ples of systematic varia-
statistical analysis techniques to control the quality of the tions.
assembly process. The traditional method of using these tech-
niques is to analyze what has already occurred and when a
problem is identified to adjust the process accordingly. It is
now becoming increasingly common to use statistical techni-
ques to predict how the process will perform in the future
and to identify systematic variations and adjust the process
before we end up with faulty products.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 5
2.2 Distribution
Consider a tightening process where we measure the torque
applied to a bolt. As you know, we would not achieve the
same readings for all tightenings. Suppose we collect enough
readings to create a plot of the frequency (the number of
times a particular reading occurred) against the actual torque
readings. The result would be a plot similar to the one in
figure 3 below. In statistical analysis this curve is known as a
“distribution”. There are many different types of distribution,
but the one that best describes this example (and others like
it) is called the Normal or Gaussian distribution.
2.3 Histogram
A histogram is when you divide the results into categories
(for example all results between 20 – 21 Nm). Then it is pos-
sible to create a diagram by counting the number of results in
every category and putting them into a diagram. By doing
this it is possible to visualize the distribution with a fairly
limited number of results.
6 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S
2.5 Standard deviation
If a tool is used for a very large number of tightenings at a
set torque of e.g. 30 Nm, it is unlikely that every single tigh-
tening will reach this torque value exactly. This will be the
case even if the tool is run on the same screw joint, a test
fixture. Random factors, such as material wear and different
handling of the tool may cause the applied torque to exceed
or fall below the intended torque. The readings are said to
deviate from the mean and we measure this with what is
known as standard deviation.
It is not essential to fully understand the formula, which is
presented later. But it is helpful if you know how to calculate
it, and it is crucial that you understand what it is! The stan-
dard deviation is the amount by which each reading is most
likely to deviate from the average.
What is the practical use of standard deviation? We have alre-
ady said that the mean tells us the average value of the distri-
bution (all different tightenings) and standard deviation indi-
cates the scatter. We can use it to estimate how many of our
values will come within a certain range. The standard devia-
tion may be more accurately described as a calculation of
how far a known percentage of the distribution lies from the
mean.
σ is a letter in the Greek alphabet and it is used to symbolize
the deviation from the mean (average) of any distribution.
For a business or manufacturing process, the σ value indica-
tes how well that process is performing. A low σ value indi-
cates that most of the values are close to the target. A high σ
value indicates that the spread is big and that the values devi-
ate more from the target value.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 7
This now brings us to something very useful. Now that we
know the percentage of the values that will end up within a
certain σ boundary, we can predict how the process will
behave in the future. Do you remember the discussion about
random and systematic variation? We said that for a normal
distribution all systematic variations are eliminated and only
random variation is present. We now also know that 99.7% of
all values are within 6σ, (or +/– 3σ). This enables us to make
an important assumption: even though 0.3% of all tightenings
will fall outside the 6σ limits for a normal distribution, we
assume that all tightenings outside these limits happen becau-
se of systematic variations in the process. This means that
something new has entered the process – it is not under con-
trol any more.
8 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S
2.6 Estimation of a normal distribution
When we talk about measurements or readings on an applica-
tion, we can calculate an average and a standard deviation.
If we were to measure an infinite number of tightenings, we
would know for sure that we have the true value of the mean
and the standard deviation. This is the population mean and
the population standard deviation. But in reality this is not
possible and we have to rely on a limited number of tighte-
nings. In statistics we talk about a sample; in the tightening
business we talk about subgroup or a batch. This means that
we cannot really know for sure that our calculations (mean
and standard deviation) are correct, since they are only based
on a limited number of tightenings. In fact, what we have is Figure 7. It is impossi-
an estimate of the real values. The more tightenings we have ble to measure the
entire population. We
on which to base our calculations, the more sure we can be have to rely on a limi-
that we are close to the population mean and standard devia- ted number of values,
tion. a sample or a batch.
Where:
xi is the value of each individual occurrence, the ith
measurement of variable x.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 9
value together. We now divide this by the number of tighte-
nings. Finally, we need to take the root of this total value, as
we have (Nm)2 and need Nm, and we get the population stan-
dard deviation. The square and the root only exist because we
want to get rid of the positive and negative deviations from
the mean.
Where
xi is the value of each individual occurrence
in the sample
n is the total number of occurrences in the
sample
Σ xi is the sum of the values of all occurrences
in the sample
i is the sum of all values of (xi - )2
10 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
3. Accuracy requirements
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 11
This is normally true, but we cannot know for sure that the
distribution will look like this. We can, for example, have a
negative mean shift. We need to check which of the limits are
the outermost.
Example:
Tests on a hard joint (30 degrees) and a soft joint (800
degrees) produced the following data.
12 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
4. Understanding processes
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 13
5. Capability
5.1 Cp
The first, and most commonly used capability index, is called
Cp. The formula for the Cp is:
Cp = Tolerance interval = HI – LO
6σ 6σ
If you look at the formula, you can see that it simply relates
the tolerance interval (HI-LO), to the process natural varia-
tion! If we have a tool with a big spread, and an application
Figure 12. When calculating Cp,
the tolerance interval is related to with very high demands (narrow tolerance limits), we get a
the 6σ. low Cp value. Conversely, if we have a tool with very small
spread (small σ), but very wide tolerance limits, we get a
high Cp. Of course this is what we want, because the smaller
the variation in relation to the tolerance limits, the lower the
risk of tightenings outside the tolerances. The Cp require-
ments vary. The most common is that Cp has to be greater
than 1.33. This indicates that 6 times the standard deviation
covers no more than 75% of the tolerance interval.
14 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
But is this enough for us to tell if the tool is good or bad for
a specific application? Do we need something more? Yes.
The Cp does not consider whether the mean of the distribu-
tion is close to the target value or not. This index does not
guarantee that the distribution lies in the middle of the tole-
rance interval. In the picture below you can see the same tool
on the same application, but before and after torque adjust-
ment. In both cases we would have the same Cp. If we are off
target, it is possible that the tightenings are outside one of the
tolerance limits, even if the scatter is small in relation to the
tolerance interval (high Cp). So we need something more that
also relates the distribution to the target value.
Figure 13. High Cp does not guarantee that we are close to the target
value.
5.2 Cpk
The Cpk also relates the mean of the distribution to the target
value of the application. The way to do this is to divide the
distribution and the application into two different parts and
make one calculation for each side. The formula looks like
this:
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 15
“upper calculation” will give us the Cpk, because we are clo-
ser to the upper tolerance limit.
In this case, we can also see that the Cpk has the same value
as the Cp.
Bad Cp Good
Process not capable Process capable
Change tool or but average needs
Bad adjust for good to be adjusted.
accuracy.
Cpk
Figure 15. The relation bet- Not possible. Process capable
ween Cp and Cpk. Good and well adjusted.
16 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
Look at the following dartboards:
The first dartboard shows a poorly centered process, but with Figure 16.
Dartboard 1:
a low spread (high accuracy). In this case the Cp is high and High Cp and low Cpk.
the Cpk low. On the second dartboard, the darts are spread Dartboard 2:
randomly around the bull’s eye, but the spread is quite large Low Cp and low Cpk.
Dartboard 3:
related to the tolerances. Cp is probably not so good, but if High Cp and high Cpk
the “mean value” is on target, the Cpk has the same value as
the Cp. The third dartboard shows a well centered process,
with high accuracy. This means that both the Cp and Cpk are
high; the process is capable.
An example:
A joint should be tightened at 70 Nm ± 10 %. A tool is tested
and we get an average of 71 Nm and a σ of 1.2 Nm.
Both the Cp and Cpk values are greater than 1.33 and the
process is capable and does not need to be adjusted.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 17
5.4 Machine capability indices
As you now know, Cp and Cpk are process capability indices.
Everything that affects the process affects these indices. But
if we take away all variation affecting the assembly process,
except the variation in the tool itself, we get what are called
Machine Capability indices. This must be done under very
controlled circumstances, preferably in a tool crib. The tests
should be carried out on the same joint and by the same ope-
rator (or even better, place the tool in a fixture in order to get
rid of all the operator influence). The calculations are the
same for Cm as for Cp, and the same for Cmk as for Cpk.
18 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
6. Control charts
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 19
6.1 X-bar charts
First we introduce a control chart for controlling the average
level of a certain unit. It can be the diameter of a bolt, or the
torque applied to a joint. It is called -chart, and when using
it we plot the average of the observations (measurements)
into the diagram. At pre-defined intervals we collect a num-
ber of measurements, a subgroup, from the process. We then
calculate the mean for each subgroup and use this value as
our quality indicator.
When the control limits are set, the -values from each
group of readings can be plotted on the charts. When the
Figure 17. We collect a num-
assembly process is under control (only random variation
ber of measurements, a affects the tightenings), the subgroup averages will spread
subgroup from the process, randomly around the overall mean ( ).
and plot the averages into
the diagram.
20 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
6.2 The subgroup
Assume that the quality variable (in our case the tightenings)
we want to control has the average µ and standard deviation
σ when the process is under control. Remember that our qua-
lity indicator is the subgroup mean, . Ideally the individual
measurements and the subgroup averages have the same
mean value (see picture). But we can also see that the spread
between the individual measurements (σ) is bigger than bet-
ween the subgroup averages, which in fact is σ/√n, where n
is the number of measurements in each subgroup. So the
chance of detecting a deviation from µ is greater when we Figure 18. The spread between
study subgroups instead of individual measurements. So, in individual measurements is
fact, the control limits are normally set to (the subgroup 6σ- bigger than between subgroup
averages.
limits):
UCL = µ + 3σ/√n
Estimated by:
LCL = µ – 3σ/√n
But how big does the subgroup need to be? If you look at the
picture below you see that as we increase the size of the sub-
groups (n), the standard deviation does not decrease so much
when we go over 4 or 5. This explains why 4, 5 or 6 are very
common choices of subgroup sizes. Historically, a subgroup
of 5 is a very common choice.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 21
6.3 Alarms
Now to the good stuff; what happens if something non-ran-
dom starts affecting the tightenings? What if the quality of
the screws suddenly deteriorates? Well, maybe it will affect
the mean of the subgroups. Maybe it will affect the spread
within the subgroups. Maybe the torque applied to the joints
will slowly decrease. All this can now be detected. The beau-
ty of control charts is that the quality engineer, or quite often
the operator, can pick up potential problems at an early stage
before we get tightenings outside the tolerances, before faul-
ty assemblies are made.
22 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
The Range R helps us to estimate the spread of the subgroup.
This can be done with the aid of different devisors, which
can be found in manuals for statistical process control. If you
want the centerline to be , the control limits for the control
chart will be:
UCL = D4*
LCL = D3*
Summary
This guide explains the basics of statistics such as the distri-
bution, mean value and standard deviation. It also describes
how this can be related to an application by capability calcu-
lations. The process can be monitored and controlled by
using SPC, and this is also described and explained.
This pocket guide does not explain all aspects of and the
potential of statistics. This is an introduction to the subject,
and if there is a need for further studies we recommend you
refer to specialist literature.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 23
Appendix
Mean value,
Atlas Copco Tool Other tool
10 10
24 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
Both tools have a mean value of 10. If one tool were to have
a mean value of 15, we would know that that tool is not as
good as the one hitting the target torque. Do both tools have
the same accuracy? Accuracy tells us how accurate a tool is,
i.e. how well it hits the target. It is the degree to which an
indicated value matches the actual value of a measured varia-
ble.
How do we now see the difference? Let us look at the range
of the values of the two tools. The range, R, tells us between
which values we have received our tightenings, and is calcu-
lated as the difference between the highest and the lowest
value in the range.
R = xmax – xmin.
Range, R
Atlas Copco Tool Other tool
0.5 4
With the Atlas Copco tool, our tightening values differ by 0.5
Nm between highest and lowest value; while the other tool
has a deviation of 4 Nm. But if you perform 1000 tightenings
with the Atlas Copco tool and get one value totally out of the
range, e.g. 5, you get a range for the Atlas Copco tool of 5.5.
Then the Atlas Copco tool becomes the bad one. We have to
find a function to remove the influence of that one tighte-
ning.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 25
The standard deviation is a statistical index of variability,
which describes the deviation and tells us the average diffe-
rence between the value of a specific variable and some desi-
red value, usually a process set point. Let us calculate the
deviation for each value received and sum them up.
=10
=0 =10 =0
26 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
Atlas Copco Tool Other tool
σ xi - (xi - ) 2
σ xi - (xi - )2
10 0 0 10 0 0
10.1 0.1 0.01 11 1 1
10.2 0.2 0.04 9 -1 1
9.7 -0.3 0.09 8 -2 4
10.0 0 0 12 2 4
10.2 0.2 0.04 10 0 0
10.1 0.1 0.01 9 -1 1
9.7 -0.3 0.09 12 2 4
9.8 -0.2 0.04 8 -2 4
10.2 0.2 0.04 11 1 1
=10 (xi – )=0 (xi– )2= 0.036 =10 (xi – )=0 (xi– )2=2
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 27
A2. Example of capability calculation
We know that the capability of a tool is how the tool is per-
forming in a specific application. So what we do when calcu-
lating capability indices is to relate the tool accuracy (mean
value and standard deviation) to the demands on the applica-
tion (target value and tolerance limits).
15.4
15.6
15.4
15.1
15.1
15.5
15.0
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.5
15.3
15.4
15.3
15.3
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.1
15.2
28 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
It is now easy to calculate the mean value and standard devi-
ation:
n
Σ xi
x= i=1n
Both the Cp and Cpk values are greater than 1.33 and the
process is capable and does not necessarily need to be adjus-
ted, even though the average is slightly off target.
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 29
Let us assume that we have collected these results on 4 diffe-
rent occasions. We have set the subgroup size to 5, so we
have collected 5 results on each occasion:
Day 1 15.4
15.6
15.4
15.1
15.1
Day 2 15.5
15.0
15.3
15.2
15.1
Day 3 15.5
15.3
15.4
15.3
15.3
Day 4 15.1
15.2
15.4
15.1
15.2
30 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
The first thing we do is to calculate the average for every
subgroup:
= 15.32
= 15.22
= 15.36
= 15.2
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 31
A4. Analysis of assembly tool performance –
ISO 5393 Calculation
To allow us to assess the performance of different tools and
to compare one tool with another, there is an international
standard (ISO 5393), which sets out a basic test procedure
and analysis of results. Based on this, many motor vehicle
manufacturers have developed their own certification stan-
dards.
As an example we will assume we have tested a tool accor-
ding to the procedure stated in ISO 5393.
On a hard joint with the tool set at the highest torque setting
the following results were obtained (in Nm).
31.5 33.2 32.6 33.7 31.4 32.5 33.1 31.2 33.5 32.6 33.1
31.0 32.3 33.2 32.4 31.5 33.5 33.3 31.5 32.6 31.3 33.7
33.0 31.8 33.0
Mean torque ( )
= (31.5 +33.2 + 32.6 + 33.7 + ....+ 33.0) / 25
= 32.5 Nm
Range
= 33.7 - 31.0
= 2.7 Nm
= 0.863 Nm
32 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
Now let us assume that for the same tool we calculated the
following values for the data collected at the other torque
settings and joint conditions described in ISO 5393.
For the higher torque setting on the soft joint
A mean of 31.95 and a standard deviation of 0.795.
For the lower torque setting on the hard joint
A mean of 23.72 and a standard deviation of 0.892.
For the lower torque setting on the soft joint
A mean of 22.87 and a standard deviation of 0.801.
Mean shift
32.5 – 31.95 = 0.55 Nm
Mean shift
23.72 -22.875 = 0.85 Nm
34 P O C K E T G U I D E T O S T A T I S T I C S
Atlas Copco Pocket Guides
P O C K E T G U I D E T O S TAT I S T I C S 35
www.atlascopco.com
9833 8637 01 Recyclable paper. Jetlag 2003:1. Printed in Sweden