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Chapter 2 Bacci
2.1 Constraint, Choice, Adaptation
-3 great population cycles: from the first humans to the beginning of the Neolithic era, from the Neolithic era to the Industrial
Revolution, and from the Industrial Revolution to the present day

-2 systems of forces, those of constraint (include climate, disease, land, energy, food, space, and settlement patterns) and those of
choice(have variable degrees of interdependency, but they share 2 characteristics: their importance in relation to demographic
change and their own slow rates of change)

1,demographic change: mechanisms are intuitive&well demonstrated. Human settlement patterns (density and mobility),availability
of land depend on geographic space. Food, raw materials, and energy resources come from land and are important for human
survival. Climate determines the fertility of the soil, imposes limits on human settlement, and is linked to patterns of disease.
Diseases, in turn, linked to nutrition, directly affect reproduction and survival. Space and settlement patterns: linked to population
density and the communicability of diseases.

2.permanence (space and climate) or slow rate of change (land, energy, food, disease, settlement patterns) in relation to the time
frame of demo graphic analysis (a generation or the average length of a human life). These forces are relatively fixed and can be
modified by human intervention only slowly and over long period of times, like development of technology, cure to diseases.

*In short and medium/even long term, populations must adapt to and live with the forces of constraint.

-adaptation requires a degree of behavioral flexibility so that population adjusts its size and rate of growth, which can be
automatic, socially determined, and the result of explicit choices, Ex. shortage of food—>body growth slows—>reduced nutritional
needs but equal efficiency (small body size of the Indios of the Andes). If shortage is serious—>mortality increases, population
declines/disappears, and no adaptation is possible

-adaptation operates with age at marriage(main in controlling growth), voluntary limitation of births–fertility of couples and newborn
survival: sexual taboos, duration of breast‐feeding, and the frequency of abortion and infanticide(direct or exposure/abandonment),
and migration

2.2 From Hunters to Farmers:The Neolithic Demographic Transition

-hunters and gatherers became farmers and, with time, switched from a nomadic to a sedentary lifestyle because of population
increase and increased density and growth rate of 0.37% per 1000

-agriculture increased the ceiling of population growth imposed by environmental constrains in hunter‐gatherers societies

-small, autonomous, and highly vulnerable groups, of few hundred individuals—>decline in size below a certain level compromises
the reproductivity and survival of the collectivity, growth in numbers can lead to splitting and the creation of a new group( depends
on birth&death: successful period, the balance between births and deaths is positive and the population grows; in an unsuccessful
one, the balance is negative and population declines)

*Introduction of agriculture brought about an increase in mortality, but also an even greater increase in fertility, with the result that
the growth rate accelerated

-larger population—>greater stability

-2 theories of increase growth

1.classical:agriculture and animal domestication—>regular food supply—>protected population—>health&survival improved,

mortality declined&growth increased

2.more recent: agricultural populations both mortality and fertility increased, but fertility increased more than mortality, and this
explains demographic growth—>made the sedentary groups more stable and less prone to extinction

But why higher mortality?

1.nutritional levels worsened with the agricultural transition because of the heavy dependence upon grains(proof:skeletal remains-
body size, height, and bone thickness all seem to have declined when hunters settled and became farmers) NOT SO BELIEVABLE

2.stable settlement of population created the conditions for parasites and infectious diseases (agriculture:malaria benefited from
irrigation and the artificial creation of pools of stagnant water)—>higher mortality, but more rapid population growth from higher
fertility(age at first birth, 3/4 years breastfeeding, long birth interval, cost of children declined, contribution to
work. Evidence: nomad Kung San’s fertility increased.

2.3 Black Death and Demographic Decline in Europe

-1000-1400: Settlements multiplied, new cities were founded, abandoned areas were inhabited, and cultivation expanded to
progressively less fertile lands

-1400: slowdown because of agricultural economy less vigorous by the depletion of the best land/halt in technological progress
and more shortages due to unfavorable climatic conditions.

-mid 14th C: plague struck=population decline by 1/3 between 1340 and 1400 &start to recover from mid 15h C

-plague: first appearance in Sicily, in 1347, then spread through Russia, it traversed the entire continent

-bacillus responsible for the plague is Yersinia pestis (1894 by Yersin,Hong Kong). It is transmitted by fleas(insect) carried by rats
and mice.The bacillus does not kill the flea, which bites and so infects its host (mouse). When the mouse dies, the flea must find a
new host (mouse/human) and so spreads the infection

-No one is naturally immune to the plague

-plague of theJustinian period: spread through eastern Mediterranean in 541–4, afflicted Italy and Mediterranean Europe in
successive waves from 558–61 until 599–600. It remained in the East until the middle of 8th C, generating epidemics that
continued to affect Europe

-several plague crisis had stronger effects during the 14 and 15th C

-After the epidemic of 1663–70, which hit England, northern France,

the Low Countries, and the Rhine Valley, the plague disappeared
from Europe as a general geographic event, except for an
appearance in Provence in 1720–2

-plague acted independently of modes of social organization/levels

of development/density of settlement.no relation to one’s state of
health, age, or level of nutrition. It struck urban and rural popula-
tions.

-no precise data of mortality/deaths, but in Siena mortality was 11

times higher compared to normal levels.

-adaptation and response to the plague, both in the short and

medium to long term

a.decrease birth and marriages, family disruptions(short term)

b. Decrease in work force but increase in the wages(long term)

c. Demographic recovery(increase in marriage especially of widows,

decline age at marriage)

d. More land available(long term)

e. Relaxed checks to marriages and increased nuptiality—

>population growth(long term)

2.4 The Tragedy of the American Indios: Old Microbes and New
Poplulations
-Columbus landed in Haiti(Hispaniola in 1492)

-population of 1 million then (Columbus/Bartolome)

-Las Casas–the colonist who became a Dominican friar and staunch

defender of the Indios–would eventually increase this number to 3/4
million

-In 1514, the Repartimiento–the allotment of natives to the colonists

for personal service, labor in the fields, cattle raising, and gold
mining–counted only 26,000 people of both sexes and all ages

-after the smallpox epidemic of 1518–19 only a few thousand were

left and the natives were heading toward extinction

-cause of population decline in the New World was the fact that the
native population lacked immunity with respect to many pathologies,
unknown in America but common in Eurasia and to which the
European settler was well adapted. Diseases relatively harmless in
Europe became deadly for the natives: this is called the “virgin soil”
effect. 2 drawbacks for Hispaniola:

1.no historical proof of major epidemics on the island before the smallpox epidemic of 1518–19, when the population was already
reduced to 10,000/less

2.“virgin soil” paradigm tends to obscure other factors of population decline (societal dislocation)

-16th C: decline of native population for the economy if the island. Greed for gold (too many Indios in the mines and for too long
periods (up to 10 months per year); neglect of other productive activities; overwork; lack of food; unsuitable climate and
environment in the mines; maltreatment; separation from their families—>high mortality and law fertility)and the encomienda (Indios
shifted from one part of the island to another; frequently moved from one master to another; communal life was disrupted; the
encomenderos, fearing the loss of their Indios, exploited and overworked them; concubinage; maltreatment—>Indios escaped into
the wilderness where survival was difficult—>suicide, open rebellion, victims of violence) are believed to be the principal causes

-In 1514 children below age 14 made up only 10 percent of the total population.Living conditions worsened and survival
deteriorated

-Disease, enslavement at the hands of the colonists, and migration in the interior in areas less favorable to survival, were main
factors in the depopulation(Mexico)

-Thornton claims that in the 300 years after 1500 the Indians of the area that became the United States were reduced from 5
million to 60,000

-In many areas of the continent Conquest implied war, with its related consequences of destruction, famines, and hunger. For 20
years Peru was devastated by the wars of Conquest and the civil wars among Spanish factions

-forced migration and social and economic dislocation upset the balance of native society

-Europe lost 1/3population, but had vigorous recovery after each epidemic episode. Native societies had new diseases and the
destructuring of society(black legend), had not demographic recovery, but decline in births and high mortality.

-Taino: Conquest had an impact stronger than that of disease

-Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia: effect of wars and conflicts was prevalent in determining population

-Maxico: epidemics had a primary role in determining high mortality

-denser and more structured societies had more chances of survival than less complex ones, based on subsistence economies
and unable to produce surpluses and invest

-diseases introduced with europeans spread from tribe to tribe, killing 95% of Pre-Columbian Native population(Diamond)

-Paraguay: Jesuit missions protected native from slave-hunting expeditions and spread early marriages

2.5 Africa, America, and the Slave Trade

-between 1500 and 1870 9.5 million Africans were deported to America as slaves, survivors abducted from their villages, mostly
young/reproductive age, more men, many died during
transportation. —>declined population during the 18th C

-common opinion that between 1/5 and 1/3 of the newly arrived
slaves died within 3 years

-Why?because of labor shortage in the americas from the

depopulation of natives, the introduction of sugar cultivation that
increased in demand and there was need for intense effort of
labor, and because of the triangle of trade, Europe, Africa,
America

-high mortality of the slave population because of:

1.heavy labor regime in the sugar plantations that was under the
rigid and merciless control of supervisors. The operations
involved required a high input of labor, men and women working
from sunrise to sunset

2.diet was adequate, the level of hygiene in the slaves’

compounds (senzala, large rectangular sleeping quarters where
men were separated from women) was appalling, and the care,
if not the cure, of the sick and disabled from the part of the
masters was certainly poor.

3. obstacles to marriages and unions by masters—>jeopardizing

the stability and reproduction of the couple, an important factor
of the negative balance between births and deaths

4.there was ample supply of slaves on the market, and their

price was low, it was more convenient to buy them than sustain
the costs of reproduction and child rearing

5.contacts between slaves of different masters were prohibited or made difficult, thus limiting mating choices

-Table shows stock of the population of African origin in 1800&cumulative forced African immigration into the US in 1500-1800: for
the entire continent, the former (5.6 million) is lower than the latter (7 million), with a ratio of 0.8:1

-Caribbean islands:African population was 1.7 million, less than half the cumulative inflow of 3.9 million slaves (ratio 0.43:1). -Brazil:
was 2 million, but the total number of slaves received was 2.3 (ratio 0.87:1). The residual 1 million slaves were brought to Hispanic
America and to what became the US, where they found better survival and reproductive conditions.

-in Brazil and Caribbean islands (greatest number of slaves) the demographic system of the population of African origin was fueled
by the continuous recruitment of slaves, filling the enormous gaps left by a very high mortality only partially compensated by a
weak birth rate.

-Regime of natural increase was possible in North America:fertility of the slave population was high (8 children per woman) and the
mean age at first birth was below 20, the duration of breast‐feeding and birth intervals short. Mortality was lower compared to that
of Africans deported to Brazil and the Caribbean

-Brazil and the Caribbean: continuing imports of slaves due to hight mortality and low fertility

-In Brazil it was the common belief at the time that the duration of the active life of a young slave was between 7 and 15 years

-1872:life expectancy of slaves of 18 years, compared to 35 for the slave population of the US

2.6 The French Canadians: A Demographic success story

-few thousand pioneers arrived in the Canadian province of Québec in 17th C and faced harsh and inhospitable climate.Few
courageous individuals quickly adapted and, thanks to abundant natural resources and available land, rapidly multiplied

-Most of the present‐day population of 7.3 million French Canadians trace their ancestry to this original group

-continual flow of immigration contributed to the demographic success of most of the European populations of North America and
Oceania. In 1840 to 1940 a migratory surplus accounted 40%of total growth in Argentina, 30% in the US, and 15%in Brazil and
Canada, while in French Canada there was consistently net outmigration

In Canada:

1.from the 18th C onward immigration had little effect on population growth

2. Canadian sources are remarkably rich and have been skillfully exploited, allowing analysis of the demographic reasons for the
success of the French in America

-1534 Jacques Cartier planted a cross in the Gaspé Peninsula and claimed the land in the name of Francis I of France establishing
New France;1608: Quebec was founded;1627: 100 Associate founded for purpose of colonization; 1631 Treaty of Souza was
signed, (temporary) ending the war with England and returning Nova Scotia to the French; 1632 New France restored to French.
This led to new French immigrant; 1663 –New France becomes a royal province under Louis XIV. The Sovereign Council is created to
administer the colonies under the absolute authority of the King. Louis XIV decides to rebuild New France. He sends a governor and
troops to protect the colony, and intendant to administer it, and settlers to increase its population; 1763 New France becomes a British colony
called Quebec

-demographic characteristics of the French Canadians and reasons for their success:

1)high nuptiality, especially owing to the young age at marriage

2)high natural fertility

3)relatively low mortality

-more marriages

-frequent remariage

-young widow not common

-higher fertility

-higher life expectancy

-low population density:limit mortality by checking the spread of

infection and epidemic

-marriage at 1516

-value of children is the greatest of all encouragements to

marriage

-The advantageous conditions in which the pioneers found

themselves allowed each couple to have an average of 6.3
children, of whom 4.2 married—>population doubled in less than
30 years

-An initial selection mechanism, social cohesiveness, and

favorable environmental factors were the basis of the
demographic success of French migration to Canada

-The different fates of the indigenous and colonizing populations – demographic crisis for the indigenous versus success for the
colonizers – were a function not only of new diseases, but also of different levels of social and technological organization. The
Europeans controlled energy sources (horse, animal traction, and sail) and technologies (iron and steel tools and weapons, the
wheel, explosives) that far outperformed those of the indigenous populations. They were better clothed and housed and were in
any case accustomed to cold or temperate climates. In addition, the animals they imported (horses, cattle, sheep, goats) adapted
to the new environment with astonishing ease and reproduced rapidly, as did their plants (and weeds)

2.7 Irish famine:Malthusian case

-few years before the Great Famine that would alter Irish demography dramatically – the Irish population grew from just over 2
million to over 8 million

-natural tendency of the Irish to marry early was inhibited by the difficulty of obtaining land on which to build a house and start a
family. This obstacle was removed in the second half of the eighteenth century by a series of complex factors–among them the
great success of the potato

–that allowed the extension and breaking up of farmland—>nuptiality increased and high rate of growth

-1841-1847: the Great famine

-iris population <x2 in the century preceding the Great Famine

-18th-19th C:Irish were insistently urged and tempted to marry early: the wretchedness and hopelessness of their living conditions,
their improvident temperament, the unattractiveness of remaining single, perhaps the persuasion of their spiritual leaders, all acted
in this direction.

-introduction of potato had high productivity, population became ever more dependent upon the potato and the high nutritional
value of the potato, consumed in incredible proportions as part of a diet which also included a considerable amount of milk.These
factors, combined with

high natural fertility and moderate mortality, produced a high rate of growth in the period leading up to the Great Famine

-1845 a fungus, Phytophthora infestans, badly damaged the potato harvest; in 1846 it destroyed it entirely.The winter of 1846–7
brought famine, poverty, desperate and massive emigration, and epidemics of fevers and typhus. It has been estimated that the
Great Famine, together with associated epidemics, caused between 1.1 and 1.5 million more deaths than normal.Emigration
became an exodus, and 200,000 people per year left Ireland between 1847 and 1854

-new regime of land use/ownership and a new nuptial order (late marriage and high rates of spinsterhood and bachelorhood),
supported by the large landowners and the clergy+massive emigration=>decline in population. Median marriage age increased
from 23–24to 27–28 at the end of the century. Between1841, 1/5 of the population aged 50 had never married. The island’s
population declined from 8.2 million in 1841 to 4.5 million in 1901.

2.8China
-population growth in China – more than doubled from about 160 million in 1700 to about 330 million in 1800

-growth in the 18th C:due to favorable phase of economic expansion reflected in the increase in land values and of agricultural
production and encouraged by a reduction of the fiscal pressure on the population=>general increase in the standard of living that
stimulated demographic expansion

-infanticide of girls permitted the regulation, at family level, of the number and gender composition of offspring=>infanticide was a
response to the fluctuations in living conditions

-Selective infanticide, and the higher mortality of surviving baby girls owing to child neglect, generated distortions of the marriage
market for the scarcity of eligible women; their scarcity was made worse by a common polygyny and by the low frequency of
remarriage among young widows=>almost all women married very young, while men married substantially later and a high
proportion remained unmarried

-besides the dominant patrilocal form (the new couple coresided with the husband’s family), there were alternative forms of
uxorilocal type, forms of levirate (for the very poor), polygyny (for the wealthy), and adoptions of baby girls who became spouses of
a member of the adoptive family.

-infant mortality declined as well, not because of better nutrition, but because of improved child‐rearing methods and better
protection from the surrounding environment.

-increased agricultural production and European demographic expansion (x2), even if nutritional levels did not improve notably.
While the possibility of farming new lands – once pasture, swamp, or wild – together with improved technology and the
introduction of new crops may not have been responsible for mortality decline, these elements did allow the agricultural population
to expand, forming new centers and increasing nuptiality levels. The growth of the industrial sector, urbanization

Chapter 2 Gould
-Structured ideas about how population affects development gained prominence in the eighteenth century, triggered in particular
by the French Revolution of 1789. This was part of that broader history of the development of ideas of the second half of the
eighteenth century, generally called the Enlightenment, involving the systematic search for reason and order in society. In particular,
ideas on the economic and social impacts of population growth are strongly associated with the ideas of the Rev. T.R. Malthus
(1766–1834)

-T.R.Malthus(1766-1834): mathematicians, clergyman, GB 1st

Professor of Political Economy

>whereas population had the potential to grow exponentially, the resource base to support that population with food and other
essentials could only grow arithmetically, thus much more slowly

>control of population growth was necessary, and could be achieved by preventive measures, the ’preventive checks’ that
controlled fertility through sexual restraint outside/within marriage(not contraception). Two types: moral restrains(postpone
marriage, remaining chaste in the meantime, until a man feels “secure that, should he have a large family, his utmost exertions can
save them from rags and squalid poverty, and their consequent degradation in the community”) and improper means (any other
means of birth control, including contraception (either before or after marriage), abortion, infanticide, or any other mean that would
“lower, in a marked manner, the dignity of human nature”)

Where these failed, balance would be established by ‘positive checks’, that is, negative constraints affecting mortality, primarily
by ‘natural’ factors, such as disease, famine and warfare, which were generally beyond social control and were in most cases
seriously unwelcome

>he saw in the rapidly urbanizing and industrializing GB an increasing level of poverty, attributed to the effects of large families and
population growth

>believed that inequality and poverty(French Revolution&Napoleonic wars)was for the poor. Poor-> large families that could not
support->raised mortality because of malnutrition&disease

>Weakness: in the argument about population and resources being in fixed proportions; that resources were largely given and
could not really be created beyond an arithmetic ratio(NOT THE CASE). 20th C New World with global food supply, densely
populated Europe supplied with cheaper food from overseas sources: the American plains and Australia and Argentina. New
resources, of technology(refrigerated ships) land, were bring created, and were able to support the burgeoning European and
global populations with rising levels of living.

>Famines and associated peaks of famine mortality had been recurrent and frequent in the densely populated and poor areas of
India&China for many centuries. Their frequency was consistent with the Malthusian position on the inevitability of positive checks
where preventive checks had failed

>India and Bangladesh:example of Malthus theory because of food deficit. Today though, they have major improvements in
nutrition despite their high population growth. Green Revolution raised production levels in India

>many of the poor countries were caught in a Malthusian trap – too many people, not enough resources(Africa)

>1994 Cairo Conference: accepted Neo-malthusian agenda that main problems were the population side of the equation, and
solutions are to be sought in restricting population growth rather than expanding production

>also Club of Rome and its Limits to Growth where they predicted an overburdening of the global system by the year 2000, to the
extent that economic development would be thrown sharply into reverse (pollution was a problem)

>1974 World Population Conference of Bucharest: no acceptance of Neo-Malthusian position for developing countries. poverty
and not population growth was the critical problem, growing global development and a more equal distribution of the world’s
wealth were more important for raising the economic standards of living and quality of life in poor countries than direct reduction in
population growth. Poverty=>high rates of population growth, and not major determinant(symptom not cause).‘Development is the
best contraceptive’

>There must be a limit to population growth, and the sooner zero or negative population growth is achieved, the more likely it is
that the economic system will allow greater per capita production

>Overpopulation-> low wages and people could not afford marriages and families

>Natural law of population: cycle of increased food resources leading to population growth leading to too many people for
available resources leading then back to poverty

>Limitations: 1.empirical evidence:Malthus made use of wide-ranging empirical evidence in his essays, Europe, India, Gb.His Sahel
belt in W.Africa(pop. Growth threaten resources) is not sufficient to know if the problem is truly population, 2.long term
perspective:in the long term there is an essential logic about the need to achieve a balance between population and resources.
There are indeed limits to technology, and so there must be limits to population growth,, 3.environmental discourses:need to strive
towards ‘sustainable development’ does require a balance between population and resources, there should be more environmental
movements and less polluting methods of resource rather than lower consumption, 4.global poverty&inequality:his focus is DC but
direct relevance is not always apparent within these countries themselves. It is typically a view from the outside, and has to be
seen in the broader context of global inequality, population growth continues to be problem

-Alternative views

>Godwin and others argued that poverty was not ‘caused’ by population growth, but by inequalities in the distribution of income
and inadequacies of technology. Malthus, writing at the time of the worst excesses of the Poor Law in England, saw the plight of
the poor being due to their breeding too fast, but REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH is another explanation

>Marx argued that people were producers as well as consumers, and were able to create wealth, their capitalist employers derived
benefit from that wealth their workers created by appropriating the surplus produce of their labour, the poverty of the labour force
was due to the inequality in the distribution of wealth(not large families)

>Development is a multifaceted issue that cannot be reduced to a single variable, as the Malthusian calculus had
implied.Population growth was probably a major stimulus for better food production and food security in the early hydraulic
civilizations, and basic stimulus for introducing new technologies and forms of governance, new forms of governance and
economic organization were also ensuring a larger and better food supply

>19th C progress: wages and living conditions improved, associated with improved sanitation and environmental health, basic
food prices were falling, the incidence of poverty was consistently falling, even though population continued to grow

>now much greater global awareness of the need to balance population and resources at all scales

-Boserup: born 1910 in Denmark, economist with experience in India

>believes population growth can act in some circumstances as a stimulus rather than an impediment to economic change

>for Boserup, population growth is seen to have the possibility of being a stimulus to agricultural output, raising outputs per unit of
input of land, labour and technology( vs for Malthus, population growth imposed additional pressures on available resources and
resulted in falling per capita outputs)

>pop. Growth could release an upward spiral of development as a result of increasing per capita resource productivity(vs Malthus,
population growth initiated a downward spiral, a pessimistic scenario of increasing poverty as a result of additional consumption)

>Where there is population growth, societies have a clear incentive to innovate in their food supply system by intensifying
production from existing land where this is possible

>this happened in Neolithic Revolution and the early hydraulic civilizations, where development in the technologies allowed the
application of irrigation to greatly increase production

>also in modern Europe, much associated with introducing crop rotation and new crops such as potatoes

>also Green Revolution in Asia from the 1960s, with major intensifications in agriculture, of high-yielding varieties of rice, wheat
and maize

>Boserup argued that these increases in production were sustained by major changes in the social organization of society,
notably in the position of women, that then brought downward adjustments in their fertility after a phase of high population
growth
>Green Revolution has thus far passed much of Africa by, in part because there seemed always to be abundant land relative to a
low-density population, and little surplus resource for farmers’ investment and innovation

>Necessity is the mother of invention<

>Malthus was a pessimist and Boserup optimist

Chapter 3 Goult&4 Bacci: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION(common term with Industrial Revolution-is a complex process of passage
from disorder to order and from waste to economy)

-From a demographic point of view, old‐regime societies were inefficient: in order to maintain a low level of growth, a great deal of
fuel (births) was needed and a huge amount of energy was wasted (deaths)

-In France, for example, the transition began at the end of the eighteenth century and lasted more than 150 years; mortality and
fertility declined in similar, almost parallel, fashion, not diverging greatly from one another in time, and the multi plier was barely 1.6.
In Sweden, on the other hand, mortality decline proceeded ahead of fertility decline and the transition was shorter; the multiplier
was more than double that of France

-theories of population change that are collectively

known as demographic transition theory (DTT), and
summarized by the demographic transition model (DTM)

-For most societies of recorded history there has been a

long-term balance between mortality and fertility, such
that there was an apparent equilibrium between them
with little/slight population growth

-short-run: seasonally fluctuation in mortality, or

associated with fluctuation in harvest. Black
death=>=>sharp fall of population=>demographic
crisis=>long term effects on society&economy(marriage
rates, age of marriage, rising wages

-Natural population growth will occur when there is more

births than deaths. W.Europe in 18th C long term pop
growth associated with economic development, political
dominance, sociocultural changes=>higher incomes,
varied food supply. Development: innovation in
agriculture, technology=>better science=>better
healthcare(smallpox vaccination)

-Industrial Revolution:infant and childhood mortality fell

sharply=> large families became famous

WWI:fertility began to fall because of less sex and less

directly effective sex(rhythm of contraceptive
cycle)=>smaller families in trends

-Mortality is largely controlled by medical knowledge,

though there may be minor disease epidemics

-fertility fluctuation are related to economic conditions

affecting the labour market, and cultural conditions
affecting desire for children

-demographic transition theory seeks to explain population change in

conceptual terms, population analysis, for Developing Countries as well as for
Developed Countries, an empirical generalization, population change over
time

-The process of transformation from waste to economy and from disorder to

order- which was an integral part of a broader process of social
transformation- is known as demographic transition

-Modernization theory provided the vehicle that moved the demographic

transition from a mere description of events to a demographic perspective, 4
key factors of modernization: Agrarian to industrial society, Rural to urban
society, Technological change, Emergence of stable nation states

-Mortality decline with public order and food security, sanitation(clean water
supplies, remove slums and vaccination campaigns)&hygiene, medical
advancement, improved roads&communication, germ theory disease(19th C,
spread hygienic advice-hand washing and sterilizing infants’ bottles,
development of antibiotics)

-Fertility decline with industry production mode, shift to urban&mobile pop.,

increase cost of kids, opportunity cost of women, erosion of family

- Mortality decline<==>fertility decline(irreversable/inescapable process of

modernization)

-4 phases: 1.(Europe)Pre-transition:birth rate and death rate are high and

cancel each other out. Population fluctuates due to mortality crisis and growth
is limited(life expectancy:30-35;TRF of 5 children/woman). Population growth
was kept low by Malthusian "positive" (famine, war, pestilence) and
“preventative" (late age at marriage) and checks. Population size: reduced by
"mortality crises”(plague/disease),crop failure and famine played a role

2.Early transition: Death rate declines and birth rate remains at a high level,
resulting in a period of rapid growth(life expectancy:55+;fertility as previous;
growth rate 2%+), because of decline in mortality crisis, control of infectious
diseases(smallpox vaccine, 1798), and decrease in young and infant mortality

3.Late transition: Birth rate starts to drop(due to a drop of legitimate fertility

due to the spread of birth control) and the death rate reaches a low level.
Population growth continues, but slows down. It varies by country, transition
in England and Wales did follow the classical pattern, in France fertility and
8

mortality declined simultaneously from the mid-18th century because birth control appeared in late 18th C. European fertility
transition conventionally dated from 1870(fertility levels varied considerably across Europe and the main check to fertility is
nuptiality) to 1960.

4.Post-transition: Birth rate and death rate are low : population growth is limited and in some years it may decline)life expectancy:
75+;TRF of 2%). All of the countries which began their demographic transition during the 18th and 19th centuries have now
completed the transition. They are considered to be "post- transitional", with low mortality concentrated in the oldest ages, low fertility
rates, and negligible growth rates (Sweden)

-Main consequences of DT are age structure, migration, urbanization, household/family

-the importance of natural population change in its rapid overall growth is obscured by the relative importance of migration in 19th
C, until the last half-century migration was a larger component of growth than the balance of births and deaths.

-Because of large migration from Europe in US&Canada, the patterns of mortality and fertility prevailed, and the trends in their
mortality and fertility levels largely paralleled those evident in Europe

-Emigration served to lower demographic pressure caused by the influx of larger cohorts of workers and availability of land in the
Americas and the demand for labor), demographic (multipliers-ratio btw population size at the beginning and at the end of the
transition)

-The multiplier tends to be considerably higher for developing countries than for the European ones, with the exception of China,
whose population has been controlled by a Draconian demographic policy

-why migration in America?economic(industrial revolution the technological progress increased productivity and so rendered mass
of workers superfluous, especially in rural areas

-18th C:more than 8 million people of European extraction, about equally divided, inhabited the two halves of the American
continent 

-Developing Countries had progressed only to the early stages of development but needed more exposure to the preconditions for
development: better technology, more resources, a more educated population, a healthier population, a better governed
population

-Rising levels of public and private income and improvements in health have brought mortality under control in Developed
Countries

Bacci Chapter 5:Pop of poor countries

-The 1900 population of poor countries, 1 billion, had multiplied sixfold by the year 2015; in 20th C they matched the expansion of
rich countries in the two centuries following the Industrial Revolution

1900-1920: 0.6% growth rate of poor countries

1920-1950: 1.2%

1960: 2.4%

1970:gradual decline

-he rich world the demo- graphic transition came about slowly as a result of a gradual decline in mortality, accompanied by a
similar decline in fertility.In the poor world mortality levels remained high until recently, just from mid 20th C mortality dropped
dramatically.Fertility, dependent on slowly changing cultural factors, did not follow the trend in mortality or did so slowly

-poor VS rich populations: life expectancy today (2010–15) for the poor is 69, the rich 78; the average number of children per
woman is 2.7 as compared to 1.7; and the poor population rate of increase at 1.4 percent is almost five times that of the rich.

-1950: developing countries had same levels of mortality with European, but not same fertility levels because of the Malthusian
check on marriage (late marriage and high rates of the never married) in Europe.

-reduction in infant and child mortality is one of the necessary conditions for fertility decline and the shift from a regime of
demographic “waste” to one of demographic “economy.”

-Survivorship improvement: reduction of infant/child mortality. Newborn dying before fifth birthday was 56 per 1,000 in 2010–5 for
the less‐developed countries, with variation in regions: 99 per 1,000 in sub‐Saharan Africa, 55 in S Asia, 13 E.Asia, 26
L.America=>elimination of infant mortality differences eliminate disparity in life expectancy, its reduction represents decline in
general mortality, favors the modernization of reproductive behavior and improves the level of health

-cause of infant mortality:lack of professional assistance at delivery, infectious diseases typical of infancy (measles, diphtheria,
whooping cough, polio, tetanus); high incidence of diarrhea and gastroenteritis resulting from poor sanitation; combined action of
malnutrition, poverty, and infection; malaria

-Sub-Saharan Africa below 5 y, with the majority of deaths from HIV&malaria

-Solution?programs of vaccination and immunization; diarrhea and gastroenteritis with improved environmental conditions and
hygiene; malaria with disinfestation; and malnutrition with programs of diet supplementation with the material resources, technical
knowledge, and collective and individual awareness(Sri Lanka provides an example of this initial rapid phase of mortality decline
largely due to DDT spraying begun in the late 1940s and the reduced incidence of malaria)

-growth of material well‐being is progressively less effective at increasing life expectancy

1970: poor‐country mortality decline as signs of slacking, criticism aimed at health programs that emulated rich‐country models
and so depended upon the development of sophisticated and expensive hospitals, clinics, and schools, which were often unable
to serve the whole population and that, while good at diagnosis and cure, they did not attack the causes of high mortality

1970: WHO and UNICEF created Primary Health Care PHC, with community participation and paramedical personnel, with simple
but effective technology, services of disease prevention and cure, and educational programs, water and sanitation systemization,
and the encouragement of the use of appropriate agricultural technology=>reduction of mortality

-accumulation of material wealth doesn’t bring improved health conditions because of its unequal distribution among the
population and because of levels of individual, family, and community awareness, which are product of deep‐rooted cultural
inheritance/deliberate social and political action, and they don’t change with development

-Improved education of women is necessary to improved sanitary conditions (some Islamic countries still have high levels of
mortality in spite of considerable economic development was linked to status of women and the limited instruction they receive)

-reliance on medicine may prolong a life made miserable by inadequate nutrition and the absence of elementary hygiene, so we
have 1) number of years of life lost:difference between age at death&expectation of life at same age in a low‐mortality population;2)
the number of years of healthy life lost due to disease/accident: difference between inception of condition and its remission/death.
Each condition is assigned a weight 0-1 according to the severity of the disability==>DALYs(total number of lost years

1950:number of children per woman has declined by more than 3 in poor countries. China is the main responsible for this change.
Family planning (FP) has been the preferred approach to reduce fertility, has been opposed by many poor countries especially
during the Bucharest conference in 1974 when the slogan “development is the best contraceptive”, but during the subsequent
conferences (Mexico City and Cairo) birth control was accepted.

-Pre-transition levels of fertility between rich and poor countries differed because of widespread use of Malthusian check of
nuptiality, which doesn’t work where non-marital fertility is high and the ultimate fertility check is voluntary control

-Paul Demeny has identified four factors as particularly important in determining the fertility transition: 1) the direct cost parents
must incur in raising/educating their children; 2) the opportunity costs of children to parents; 3) the contribution that children’s labor
makes to the income of the family; 4) the contribution of children to parents’ economic security in old age relative to other forms of
security

-mid‐1980s almost all the governments of the world officially supported FP

1950s and 2010–15 Chinese fertility was reduced by 3/4, of India has declined by 60%; Chinese life expectancy at birth, at the
same level as India’s in the 1960s, is now 8 years longer. Today, Chinese fertility is below replacement level, and if it remains there
the population will eventually decline. By contrast, Indian fertility – 1 child per woman more than China – ensures continued rapid
population growth

-India: first two 5‐year plans (1951–6 and 1956–61) called for the creation of family planning centers; the fifth plan (1971–6) called
for a crude birth rate of 25 per 1,000 by 1984. 1970: percentage of couples using birth control was very low.For both males and
females the most frequent method was sterilization. Success has been limited to a few states, the upper classes, and the urban
population. Scarce results made Indira Gandhi’s government in 1976 to speed up the program with measures (including
strengthening of the existing program and increased financial incentives for the participants) and encouraged the state legislatures
to pass laws making sterilization obligatory after the birth of the third child. Violent protests defeated her government but she
returned and the results of the 1981 census led to a renew of interest in reducing fertility=> seventh 5‐year plan of 1986–90 called
for the achievement of replacement fertility by the year 2000 that included greater investments in FP; increased financial incentives
for participants; increase in sterilization(the only successful); more widespread use of the intra-uterine device (IUD); combination
of FP services with maternal and infant services. 1980: New strategy concentrating on FP but also on aspects of economic&social
development with increasing age at marriage; raising the status of women; improving female literacy; enhancing children survival;
alleviating poverty; providing for old age security, but with little effect and worsen of FP due to excessive bureaucratic
centralization(allows little flexibility). 2000: National Policy, new policy refuses coercion, seeks a closer involvement of local
authorities and participation of men in FP, establishes the provision of incentives for couples living in poverty to marry after the
legal age of 21 and have one child or for couples undergoing sterilization after the second child

-China: 1949 Mao declared: “China’s vast population should be viewed as a positive asset with revolution and production to feed
population. 1956 Zhou En‐lai’s speech: adopting measures favoring birth control for protection of women/children and guarantee
health, prosperity and education for young=>1st birth control program, required the creation of an assistance network, the
production of contraceptives, a plan to encourage the use of birth control services and devices. But it was interrupted by the
introduction of Great Leap Forward (an economic and social campaign aiming at modernize China through rapid industrialization
and agricultural collectivization—>economic failure and a demographic disaster, famine and high mortality). 2nd Program 1959-61:
creation of the Department of Family Planning. Among other things, IUD was introduced and late marriages advocated, but
suspended during Cultural Revolution. 1971 3rd campaign: based on three principles: later marriage(for women, 23 years of age in
rural areas and 25 years of age in the city), longer birth intervals(4 years between the first and second child), and fewer children(no
more than two children in the city or three in the country, 1977 lowered for both to 2). Successful because of birth quotas
system(Chinese government establish annual numerical objectives for the natural rate of increase in each province, provincial
authorities translated their assigned targets in birth quotas, which were distributed among prefectures and counties, couples
planning to have children met with group leaders to determine which were entitled to have a child the following year). 1979, Hua
Guofeng: large reduction in demographic growth was success of the “4 modernizations” (agriculture, defense, industry, and
science&technology), he made new goal to not exceed 1.2 billion in 2000—>one child per couple was established in 1979 with
exceptions for ethnic minorities, border areas, and couples in special situations.

-1 child policy worked with incentives(benefits given for observing the one child rule, like wage and pension increases, larger
dwellings, free medical care, and priority for the child in school) and disincentives(sanctions implemented for not observing the
rule, like wage cut, extra tax, loosing housing and school benefits) and primary tool has been the one‐child certificate, issued by
local authorities. Exceptions: both parents are only-children they are allowed to have more than one child provided the children are
spaced more than 4 years, rural areas if the first child is a girl couples are allowed to have another child, ethnic minorities, twins for
first birth , families with disabled children. Canceled in 2015. This policy resulted in male child preference and lower mortality
because of the free health care

10

-Population policies more effective in China because: DECENTRALIZATION, china’s improvements in health care have
proceeded more quickly and have been more effective. As a result mortality has declined more rapidly than in India, favoring
fertility decline, propaganda and indocritination, distribution and assistance network, birth control measures(abortion)
-As the one-child policy approaches the third generation, one adult child supports two parents and four grandparents.This leaves
the oldest and most vulnerable generation with increased dependency on retirement funds, the state, or charity for support

Chapter 4 Gould: Mortality, disease and development

20th C: overall decrease in mortality rate and increase in life expectancy(Africa made the smallest improvement in LE).
1990: improvements in mortality have stalled in a number of countries, and have even gone into reverse because of HIV/AIDS, first
identified as a medical condition in 1981, its impact is most evident in Southern Africa, with highest HIV/AIDS, where life
expectancy fell from 62 years in 1990–95 to 48 years in 2000–05. Also impact of economic difficulties, often associated with IMF/
World Bank imposed Structural Adjustment Programmes, in reducing the proportion of government resources being allocated to
health programmes, imposition of user costs, declining quantity and quality of care affecting mortality levels, and especially infant
and child mortality. Evidence of greater resistance of some conditions to antibiotics and other drugs also played role.

-effects of globalization: easy international spread of diseases

-crude death rate (CDR) is measured as the number of deaths in a population in a given period, usually one year, as a proportion
of the total mid-year population, usually per 1,000 people:

CDR = deaths/total population

IMR= deaths at less than 12 months old/number of live births

MMR=no. of women dying of childbirth and related causes/deliveries of live births 


CMR = deaths aged 0–4 years in a five-year period/live births in that period

-measuring mortality, but data on age at death are hard to find, because of the third-person problem and is difficult to ascertain
age in societies where there are no baptismal records, no birth certificates, but also when death happen at home

-mortality curve by age is tick-shaped. the very young and the very old are most vulnerable, whereas young adults are least likely
to die. Middle age risks of death are relatively low, beyond middle age, mortality increases, although at a decelerating rate 

-Life exp. is used to gauge the life chances of individuals in a population and to better compare mortality conditions among
countries (and over time). In addition life exp. at birth (e0) other index are used e15 and e65
-Epidemiological Transition: summarizes the historic transition in disease regimes from one with high mortality dominated by
communicable diseases(caused by viruses and bacteria invading the body, waterborne infections that cause diarrhea, dysentery,
typhoid and cholera, airborne infections such as tuberculosis, and contagious/direct contact infections such as leprosy) to one
with much lower mortality dominated by non-infectious diseases, driven by medical improvements, general improvements in living
standards and incomes. Its the mix of proximate causes of death is known to have changed over time and this change has been
systematized in the epidemiological transition model by Omran (1971)
-mortality patterns distinguish 3 stages of the epidemiological transition:

1.age of pestilence and famine(mortality is high and fluctuating->sustained population growth with average LE at birth low and
variable between 20-40y) major determinants of mortality are the Malthusian positive checks:epidemic, famines, wars, cause
deaths. Provision of basic ecological resources(food/fresh water) is inadequate, lack of sufficient infrastructure for most services,
infectious diseases are dominant, causing high mortality rates, especially among children. Women of childbearing age also face
considerable risks due to the complications associated with pregnancy and childbirth;

2.age of receding pandemics(mortality decline, rate of decline accelerates as epidemic peaks are less frequent or disappear, LE
increases to 30-50), W.societies were in this stage from mid-18th C to1914 but mid-20th C for developing countries, reduction in
infectious diseases, fall in mortality rates, increased economic development=>sharp fall in deaths from infectious diseases/
malnutrition. Social factors increasingly important, introduction of modern healthcare and health technologies, immunization
programs and the introduction of antibiotics enable the control/elimination of group of infectious diseases like bronchitis, influenza
and syphilis. fertility rates are high, population grows rapidly&the carrying capacity of the local ecosystem may be
exceeded(population&ecological pressures increase, food&water become scarcer, lack of ecological and social resources may
cause economic development to stagnate-if surplus of available resources=>accelerated transition, if lacking=>slow transition/
stagnation);
3.age of chronic diseases(mortality decline and reach stability at low level, LE rises to 50-70(even 80 if health transition is at an
advanced stage), at this stage fertility becomes crucial in pop growth). Infectious disease pandemics: replaced by degenerative
diseases(less lethal than infectious diseases, but still cause high levels of morbidity), with infectious agents as contributors to
morbidity and mortality overtaken by anthropogenic causes. This stage has prevalence of man-made diseases(radiation injury,
occupational hazards), stress-related diseases (depression, mental illness, violence, drug dependency), heart diseases,
cerebrovascular accidents, cancer, diabetes. Low levels of mortality/fertility=>little pop. growth. There is long period of morbidity
because of long life. This stage occurs in DC and Developed C and is necessary to ensure sufficient social and health-care
investment for all age groups and demand for HC is high;

4.age od delayed degenerative diseases(NOT FOR NON-W COUNTRIES, life expectancy further increases approaching 80-85
years, disease chronicity increases together with individual and public health costs). Also called cardiovascular revolution.

5.(MAYBE)Age of Emergent and Re-emergent Infections, obesity.

-James Riley has identified a mix of six factors:public health, medicine, wealth and income, nutrition, behavior and education, that
have driven rising life expectancy since 1800

-raise life expectancy by improving health care and public health(direct expenditures in the health sector, or alleviating
poverty(increasing economic opportunities and performance and through housing, nutrition improvements such as school-based
feeding schemes, education and other investments in social infrastructure)

11

-3 categories of disease determination: 1.ecobiologic determinants of mortality indicate complex balance btw disease agents,
hostility of environment and resistance to host(ex. Recession of plague in 17th C Europe with the mysterious disappearance of
black rat);2.Socioeconomic, political, cultural like living standards, health habits, hygiene and nutrition;3.Medical&public health
determinant(preventive and curative measures, including public sanitation, new therapies but also immunization)

-Jamaica, a country that ranks relatively low in development indices, but has high life expectancies( Ray explains this apparent
paradox in terms of investments in public health before and since independence, which have allowed the poor to be resilient in the
face of economic hardship)

-The major exception is of HIV/ AIDS, which is essentially behavioral and not environmental in its spread, and not directly related to
poverty in the same way as most other killer diseases are associated with poverty, its higher in urban areas than it is in rural areas

Chapter 5 Gould: Fertility culture and development

-countries with highest per capita incomes and the most favorable human development index (HDI) tend also to have the lowest
fertility

-natural fertility: fertility in the absence of deliberate parity-specific control

-birth control-contraception(barrier methods, hormonal methods, sterilization, natural methods) and abortion

-Crude birth rate (CBR):number of births in a year per 1,000 population

-total fertility rate (TFR):the aggregate of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) over any given period

-fertility changes in response to changes in mortality

-fertility(just like mortality) fall from high equilibrium level of TFR 5 when life expectancies were low to a lower level, and to low
equilibrium with TFR 2 and replacement level.

-implication of DTM: transition from high to low equilibrium=>long-term low population growth after a period of rapid growth, has
been driven by development and occurred as a result of the economic and social changes that have been integral to the range of
global development impulses of the last 250 years=>fertility and mortality also lowered as response to modernization,
urbanization, education.

-Fertility levels are conditioned, not mainly by biology and the capability to reproduce (fecundity), but more by cultural and
economic factors

-Fall in fertility started in Europe in 2nd half of 19th C and spread with the modernization(the Westernization of fertility norms and
practices on family structures and family formation: that globally all populations would follow the W. European trends to a low level
at about replacement). This happened in E.Europe and L.America(not same levels but close), Japan(legalizing abortion in 1940s),
Asian ‘tigers’(fertility declines since 1970s &rapidly rising levels of economic development&national FP programs like in China)

-China has a TRF below replacement levels(2 and falling) from 2006, but Sub-Saharan African countries continue to have high
levels.

-proximate determinants of fertility are partly biological: whether or not a woman is biologically fertile and capable of conception
(technically ‘fecund’); probability of miscarriage/
spontaneous abortion; pathological sterility due to other
diseases, notably sexually transmitted diseases

-proximate determinants are also essentially cultural,

associated with highly variable age at marriage (young age
marriage=>high risk of pregnancy&high levels of fertility)
and entry in sexual union and sexual behavior(cultural
practices, number of wives) within that union, spousal
separation(migration)

-In polygamous societies men will have more intercourse

than women, but women will have less intercourse than in
monogamous societies=>fertility of polygamous women
tends to be lower than monogamous women in the same
society

-birth intervals are much longer than 4/5 months they need
to be for purely biological reasons, that is, before a woman
resumes ovulation and again becomes fecund, and then the nine months after conception to birth=15 months. Principal proximate
determinant of the birth interval is the length of the period of breastfeeding, for breastfeeding suppresses ovulation and brings
‘lactational amenorrhoea’ – non-resumption of menstrual cycle as a result of breastfeeding

-Main proximate determinant of fertility globally is now contraception in 21st C

-fertility needs to be understood both in economic and cultural terms. In economic terms:background variables that are associated
with the global structures of development-of education, urbanization, incomes, well-being. In culture and globally variable cultures:
understanding the pace and patterns of local, national and global fertility change

-Rising incomes tend to be associated with rising socio-economic status and greater awareness of the economic costs of bringing
up children, which in turn is directly associated with education, and particularly education of women and girls.

-The most well know aspect to lower fertility is education. Educated women are more likely to want to limit their families, but
can also typically afford to use contraception for spacing as well as stopping

-Urbanization too, to lesser extent. Women in towns have lower fertility than in rural areas. Children in town tend to be more
obviously linked to expenditures rather than being positive contributors to the household and they have more opportunities(food,
schooling bring expensive), in rural areas they can contribute to family and household labour and have more opportunities.

12

-also, since mortality has declined, fertility did also because there is less fear that children will die so families don’t make more for
security in case any would die.

-in Africa there is pronatalist societies: traditional societies still strongly dependent on the land, and for whom children are more
likely to be seen as hands to work rather than mouths to feed. There is general preference for large families and high fertility that
are higher than in any other world region.Africa remains the continent with the highest proportions of rural people. Both men and
women continue to want large families. The limited economic progress and a strong pronatalist cultural legacy seem to be limiting
fertility change. In urban areas, pronatalist traditional cultures have weakened, women spend less time in formal marriage, marrying
/entering in regular sexual union later, having more periods of ‘divorce’ after a first marriage, reducing the length of the reproductive
period and the amount of sexual intercourse

-L.America&Middle East: increased demand for smaller families and much easier access to contraceptive and other reproductive
health services, in both regions fertility declines have been associated with the cultural modernization that has accompanied
economic change and globalization. Populations are more educated, more urban, and have higher incomes and more goods to
buy with these incomes, and can recognize both the direct and indirect costs as well as the benefits of children

-Is fertility decline is a global diffusion process?-World Bank in its World Development Report for 1984 portrayed fertility decline as
a global diffusion, first in the Developed World, based on observed experience, but then spreading into the Developing World,
based on its presumptions about the nature of the global development process.Fertility decline is variable in both time and space.
Th failure of African countries to achieve national targets for fertility reduction can only be developed in the contexts of national
cultural norms and weaknesses of national political will and capability as well as differences in national economic performance

-Second Demographic Transition: there is no necessary relationship between fertility and mortality, low mortality is taken as a
given, fertility declines are seen more in response to larger economic and cultural forces than being a simple lagged response to
mortality decline, like pronatalist societies where high-fertility preferences persist in the face of mortality declines as family
structures and household economies continue to benefit from having large families, or region in Indonesia where fertility decline
was evident before mortality decline. Aging population, from marriage to cohabitation, from king-child to king-couple with a child,
from preventive contraception to self-fulfilling, from uniform to pluralistic families. 2nd demographic transition includes intl.
migration(so does the first), in industrialized countries the death rate will exceed the birth rate (combined effect of the pop.
structure and low fertility), advanced industrialized countries will be countries of immigration for long periods.

-Is development is the best contraceptive?-‘Development is the best contraceptive’(UN World Population Conference of
1974,Bucharest). With economic growth, with rising levels of individual well-being, with more education, greater levels of
urbanization, continuing falling mortality associated with improving health care, the demand for large families would fall, and
fertility(in these circumstances, development is the best contraceptive, like in E.Asia). In Africa however droughts&famines were
accompanied by falling prices for primary export products(mineral ores, major agricultural crops:coffee, tea, cotton), and brought
little prospects of spontaneous falls in fertility. Fertility began to fall by the 1990s in many African countries, and the greatest falls
were in the relatively high-income cases of South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Kenya, though it was not on the scale of East
Asia

-can there be a crisis-driven fertility decline?-any fertility declines during economic crisis are likely to be merely temporary
adjustments to previous expectations and cultural changes associated with development.They cannot be sustained in the long
term where development continues to delay.

*DTM sees development as the best contraceptive*

-determinants of fertility Davis&Blake 1956 model: 1.Intercourse variables-affect exposure to intercourse(formations&dissolution
of unions like entry age in sexual unions, permanent celibacy/abstaining from marriage, unions broken by death/divorce/
separation/disertion, exposure to intercorse in union like voluntary/involuntary abstinence and coital/sexual intercorse frequency;
2.Conception variables-affect exposure to conception like voluntary causes of fecundity/infecundity, use/non-use of contraception,
voluntary causes of fecundity/infecundity-sterilization; 3.Gestation(9 months pregnancy) variables-gestation and successful
parturition like fetal mortality from involuntary/voluntary causes-abortion

-Bongaarts 1978 model: Indirect determinants like socioeconomic, cultural , environmental variables—>Direct determinants like
intermediate fertility variables—>Fertility

-Chapter 7 Gould

-in pop. Pyramids males and females is normally roughly similar at all ages, (main exception

in the very old ages with typically excess of females over males). This excess reflects the higher life expectancy and greater
longevity of women in all human populations.

-age/sex structure is also highly sensitive to migration since migration propensities vary greatly with age

-overall sex ratio (the ratio of males to females) at the national scale is usually about 100

-China&India with the easy access to ultrasound technologies for birth screening=>differential abortion by sex, preference for male
children=>serious effects on sex ratios and for marriage and family formation patterns for the next generation

-demographic dependency: economically active population, eligible to be in the formal labour force&dependent population of the
young and the old that had no direct role in the formal economy=>dependency ratio

Dependency Ratio = population aged 15/64 for men or 59 for women)/

population 0–14 + 65+ for men or 60+ for women

-young and elderly are excluded from the labor force are clearly dependent in an economic sense on the goods&services produced
by the working population, but in family-based economic structures dominate in the subsistence and cash-crop agriculture in
much of Asia and Africa, children have important economic roles, notably in weeding, harvesting or cattle herding, as well as in
domestic activity.Old people also usually continue to contribute in some way to the household economy

*3major ways to quantify the age structure:Average age of a population, Dependency ratio, Growth rates by age*
 13

-equal numbers of men and women, and the sex

ratio for the whole population is 102

-typical of populations with
high fertility but also high
mortality(beginning of
expanding phase of DTM
-major improvements in -slight excess of boys over girls occurs at the
adult mortality youngest age groups, due to differential abortion
and infanticide associated with a preference for
boys when numbers of children were severely
controlled during the One Child policy era in the
1970s and 1980s

-excess of females at older ages, from about 70,

but most prominently in the 85+ group.

-cohort size was not rising, and the number of

births has fallen, as the cohorts in the 0–5 age
-substancial fertility decline in
group are clearly smaller than those for the 30–35
past 20 y, with successive age
-oil-rich, with in-migration of age group. This pattern shows the impact of
cohort groups, smaller than successive family limitation policies of the national
temporary laborers, mostly
previous cohort (20–24y<25–29y, government over nearly four decade in reducing
male, needed to meet the labour
15–19y<20–24y, until the fertility

market needs of a rapidly

youngest cohort>5–9y cohort)
expanding economy -those aged 38–42, the 1958–62 birth cohorts. This
was a time of major famine and associated political
disruption and high excess mortality over the five-
year period, and the small surviving cohorts are
progressing through the age structure

-overall not all people have same capabilities, not

all women in reproductive age contribute to fertility
and not all men have same physical strength

-in Africa, where there is land abundance, children

are considered to be ‘productive’ rather than
‘dependent’ because they contribute to works,
more boys that girls. This is the reason why more
girls attend school than boys in Botswana. While in
India is the opposite, the opportunity costs of
schooling are especially high for girls. older generation look to younger people to
sustain them not only in old age, but while they are still themselves economically
active, but with development this changes, children become dependents; mouths
to feed rather than hands to work, thus there is a reverse flow of wealth – from the
older generation to the younger, as is characteristic of Western societies. Caldwell
argues: sustained low fertility will only come with modern family structures where
children become costly dependents

-children remain in the forefront of development expenditures, and are kept there
by global humanitarian concerns, and especially through the advocacy of such
prominent agencies as UNICEF, part of the UN family, and Save the Children, an
international NGO, as well as by the economic imperatives of ‘investing’ in children

-estimated by the UN that currently about 60 per cent of those aged 60+ are in
Developing Countries, and that this is likely to rise to 80 per cent by 2050

-large number of countries of the South now have between 7 and 14 per cent of
their populations aged over 60, and this proportion is steadily rising( in countries
major investments in modern medicine, especially in dealing with non-infectious
diseases, chronic conditions of old age, of cardiovascular disease and cancers).
Also, associated with rising incomes, bringing better diets and healthier life-styles,
with less cigarette smoking(less in South countries, cigarette companies see
Developing Countries as their growing major market opportunities)

-tabacco deaths are higher than AIDS/malaria, other deaths are caused from traffic
accidents, increasing air pollution, as in many industrial towns of China and India

-Western societies the formalization of age at fixed retirement points, traditionally 65 for men and 60 for women in the UK, means
that those over that age are automatically and legally relegated to lesser or non-productive roles and become ‘dependents’,
recipients of pensions and other state subsidies. Elderly as ‘burden’ and ‘dependent’ is however the exception rather than the
norm, for most people in most societies do not ‘retire’ at some fixed age, they continue to contribute in cooking, babysitting or
harvest.

-migration and HIV/AIDS mortality and morbidity of the younger adult populations in their peak economically productive years has
required increasing contributions of the elderly (as well as of children) for production and domestic work

-China, the state with the largest elderly population and also most rapid growth in the elderly population, pension provision for the
elderly in urban areas, but this has been rising much more slowly than urban prices and costs, but no systematic old age support
14

for the rural elderly.The problems seem to be particularly acute for women, who live in larger numbers than men to old age, but are
less likely to have rights to the state supports as a result of their not having been in formal employment in their earlier years

-economically active age group remains the largest group, normally over 50 per cent of the total population, but rising in some
cases to 75 per cent