Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 225 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 2.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 198.6
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 44,747

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 15.7% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 5.5% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 6.7% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.0 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 10.5% A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 26.9
Latest P/E (x) 15.1
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Equity Share Capital 305 306 307 308 309 310 310 397 397 397
Reserves 6,163 7,019 7,758 8,489 9,153 9,760 9,961 19,424 20,275 21,973
Borrowings 166 65 69 60 48 34 35 29 24 40
Other Liabilities 2,259 2,995 3,526 3,596 3,577 3,909 3,994 13,523 15,346 15,404
Total 8,893 10,385 11,660 12,454 13,087 14,013 14,300 33,373 36,042 37,815

Net Block 3,444 5,632 6,266 5,951 6,147 6,310 6,170 21,410 20,898 20,636
Capital Work in Progress 2,714 931 488 524 698 692 416 582 667 1,008
Investments 722 621 806 1,581 1,714 2,097 2,149 175 153 133
Other Assets 2,011 3,201 4,100 4,398 4,529 4,915 5,565 11,206 14,323 16,037
Total 8,893 10,385 11,660 12,454 13,087 14,013 14,300 33,373 36,042 37,815

Working Capital -248 206 574 802 952 1,006 1,571 -2,317 -1,022 633
Debtors 152 128 248 221 235 232 290 924 932 1,305
Inventory 683 902 928 987 936 890 898 2,164 2,458 2,958
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 8 6 11 8 9 8 11 17 14 18
Inventory Turnover 10 8 9 10 10 11 11 9 10 9
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.3
Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Return on Equity 19% 17% 15% 15% 14% 15% 8% 7% 9% 13%
Return on Capital Employed 28% 23% 22% 22% 16% 18% 12% 11% 14% 14%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Trailing
Sales 6,996 7,303 8,501 9,749 9,161 9,955 9,437 20,094 23,609 26,041 26,041
% Growth YOY 4% 16% 15% -6% 9% -5% 113% 17% 10%
Expenses 5,130 5,526 6,548 7,349 7,502 8,027 7,895 16,951 19,751 22,032 22,074
Material Cost (% of Sales) 14% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 12% 12% 13% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 20% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 20% 21% 21% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 11% 14% 15% 15% 16% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 21% 23% 23% 22% 25% 30% 33% 32% 32% 33%
Operating Profit 1,866 1,777 1,953 2,400 1,659 1,928 1,542 3,143 3,858 4,009 3,967
Operating Profit Margin 27% 24% 23% 25% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15%
Other Income 256 320 248 143 400 424 353 479 335 234 276
Other Income as % of Sales 3.7% 4.4% 2.9% 1.5% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1%
Depreciation 297 387 446 569 494 513 630 1,461 1,219 1,154 1,154
Interest 22 49 53 78 67 66 92 153 206 171 171
Interest Coverage(Times) 81 35 33 25 23 28 14 14 14 18 18
Profit before tax (PBT) 1,802 1,661 1,701 1,896 1,498 1,774 1,173 2,008 2,768 2,919 2,919
% Growth YOY -8% 2% 11% -21% 18% -34% 71% 38% 5%
PBT Margin 26% 23% 20% 19% 16% 18% 12% 10% 12% 11% 11%
Tax 585 398 474 604 220 288 365 574 823 -54 -54
Net profit 1,217 1,263 1,227 1,292 1,278 1,487 808 1,434 1,945 2,973 2,973
% Growth YOY 4% -3% 5% -1% 16% -46% 78% 36% 53%
Net Profit Margin 17% 17% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9% 7% 8% 11% 11%
EPS 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.4 8.3 9.6 5.2 7.2 9.8 15.0 15.0
% Growth YOY 3% -3% 5% -1% 16% -46% 39% 36% 53%
Price to earning 13.3 15.9 19.4 23.7 20.6 24.8 37.8 30.1 27.6 14.2 15.1
Price 106 132 155 199 170 237 197 217 270 213 225
Dividend Payout 30.1% 31.5% 40.0% 42.9% 43.5% 45.9% 53.8% 50.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Market Cap 16,180 20,128 23,836 30,632 26,335 36,811 30,516 43,178 53,704 42,330
Retained Earnings 851 865 737 737 722 805 373 713 1,945 2,973
Buffett's $1 Test 2.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 15.7% 17.3% 23.2% 40.3%
PBT Growth 5.5% 8.0% 14.3% 35.5%
PBT Margin 16.7% 14.1% 12.6% 11.0%
Price to Earning 22.7 25.5 26.9 24.0

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Rs Cr Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 2,126 1,875 1,532 1,860 1,267 1,675 1,557 2,810 3,416 1,727 19,846
% Growth YoY -12% -18% 21% -32% 32% -7% 81% 22% -49%
Cash from Investing Activity -1,194 -527 -445 -388 -496 -456 -83 -4,165 -738 -765 -9,257
Cash from Financing Activity -466 -475 -473 -509 -672 -721 -900 -958 -1,015 -742 -6,931
Net Cash Flow 466 873 614 962 99 498 574 -2,312 1,663 220 3,658
CFO/Sales 30% 26% 18% 19% 14% 17% 16% 14% 14% 7%
CFO/Net Profit 175% 148% 125% 144% 99% 113% 193% 196% 176% 58%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 1,811 1,664 1,168 1,295 660 738 401 1,172 2,178 902 11,990
Average FCF (3 Years) 1,418
FCF Growth YoY -8% -30% 11% -49% 12% -46% 193% 86% -59%
FCF/Sales 26% 23% 14% 13% 7% 7% 4% 6% 9% 3%
FCF/Net Profit 149% 132% 95% 100% 52% 50% 50% 106% 144% 41%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17
Sales Growth 4.4% 16.4% 14.7% -6.0% 8.7% -5.2% 112.9% 17.5%
PBT Growth -7.8% 2.4% 11.4% -21.0% 18.4% -33.9% 71.1% 37.8%
Net Profit Growth 3.8% -2.8% 5.2% -1.0% 16.3% -45.7% 77.5% 35.6%
Dividend Growth 8.8% 23.4% 13.1% 0.2% 22.5% -36.3% 27.9% ###
Operating Cash Flow Growth -11.8% -18.3% 21.4% -31.9% 32.2% -7.1% 80.5% 21.6%
Free Cash Flow Growth -8.1% -29.8% 10.9% -49.0% 11.8% -45.8% 192.7% 85.8%

Operating Margin 26.7% 24.3% 23.0% 24.6% 18.1% 19.4% 16.3% 15.6% 16.3%
PBT Margin 25.8% 22.7% 20.0% 19.4% 16.4% 17.8% 12.4% 10.0% 11.7%
Net Margin 17.4% 17.3% 14.4% 13.3% 14.0% 14.9% 8.6% 7.1% 8.2%

Debtor Days 7.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.4 8.5 11.2 16.8 14.4
Inventory Turnover 10.2 8.1 9.2 9.9 9.8 11.2 10.5 9.3 9.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.1
Debt/Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Debt/Assets 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Interest Coverage (Times) 81.3 35.1 32.8 25.2 23.4 28.1 13.7 14.1 14.4
Return on Equity 18.8% 17.2% 15.2% 14.7% 13.5% 14.8% 7.9% 7.2% 9.4%
Return on Capital Employed 27.5% 23.1% 21.6% 22.3% 16.5% 18.2% 12.3% 10.9% 14.4%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 1,811 1,664 1,168 1,295 660 738 401 1,172 2,178
Dec/18
10.3%
5.4%
52.8%
#DIV/0!
-49.5%
-58.6%

15.4%
11.2%
11.4%

18.3
8.8
1.3
0.0
0.1%
18.1
13.3%
13.8%
902
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
30% Profit Margin 30% Capital Alloc
Check for a rising trend and
25% 25% Numbers > 20% long term a
has zero/marginal debt. Com
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

30,000
Revenue 140% Revenue and Pro
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
120% Compare grow
25,000 100%
20,000 80%
60%
15,000 40%
20%
10,000
0%
5,000 -20% Jan/10 Jan/12
-40%
- -60%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

3,500 Profit Over Time Operating and

4,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
3,000 3,500 which are rising over tim
2,500 3,000
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000 1,000
500 500
- -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17
Operating Margin 27% 24% 23% 25% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16%
PBT Margin 26% 23% 20% 19% 16% 18% 12% 10% 12%
Net Margin 17% 17% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9% 7% 8%

Management Effectiveness
Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17
ROE 19% 17% 15% 15% 14% 15% 8% 7% 9%
ROCE 28% 23% 22% 22% 16% 18% 12% 11% 14%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 Dec/18
Revenue Growth 4% 16% 15% -6% 9% -5% 113% 17% 10%
PBT Growth -8% 2% 11% -21% 18% -34% 71% 38% 5%
Net Profit Growth 4% -3% 5% -1% 16% -46% 78% 36% 53%

Revenue & Profit

Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17
Revenue 6,996 7,303 8,501 9,749 9,161 9,955 9,437 20,094 23,609
PBT 1,802 1,661 1,701 1,896 1,498 1,774 1,173 2,008 2,768
Net Profit 1,217 1,263 1,227 1,292 1,278 1,487 808 1,434 1,945

Cash Flows
Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17
Operating Cash Flow 2,126 1,875 1,532 1,860 1,267 1,675 1,557 2,810 3,416
Free Cash Flow 1,811 1,664 1,168 1,295 660 738 401 1,172 2,178
% Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Dec/18
15%
11%
11%

Dec/18
13%
14%

Dec/18
26,041
2,919
2,973

Dec/18
1,727
902
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 14% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 12% 12% 13%
Change in Inventory -1% 1% -1% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Power and Fuel 20% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 20% 21% 21%
Other Mfr. Exp 11% 14% 15% 15% 16% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7%
Employee Cost 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%
Selling and Admin Cost 21% 23% 23% 22% 25% 30% 33% 32% 32% 33%
Other Expenses 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Operating Profit 28% 23% 24% 20% 21% 20% 17% 16% 16% 14%
Other Income 4% 4% 3% 1% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1%
Depreciation 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Interest 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 26% 23% 20% 19% 16% 18% 12% 10% 12% 11%
Tax 8% 5% 6% 6% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 0%
Net Profit 17% 17% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9% 5% 6% 8%
Dividend Amount 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% 3% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 69% 68% 67% 68% 70% 70% 70% 58% 56% 58%
Borrowings 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Liabilities 25% 29% 30% 29% 27% 28% 28% 41% 43% 41%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 39% 54% 54% 48% 47% 45% 43% 64% 58% 55%
Capital Work in Progress 31% 9% 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Investments 8% 6% 7% 13% 13% 15% 15% 1% 0% 0%
Other Assets 23% 31% 35% 35% 35% 35% 39% 34% 40% 42%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Inventory 8% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 8%
Cash & Bank 10% 16% 18% 18% 18% 18% 20% 14% 17% 17%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 1,630 1,456 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 1,875 1,495 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 2,156 1,535 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 2,372 1,507 4 FY21
5 FY22 2,609 1,480 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 2,870 1,454 Sales 23% 6 FY23
7 FY24 3,013 1,363 PBT 14% 7 FY24
8 FY25 3,164 1,278 FCF 6% 8 FY25
9 FY26 3,322 1,198 9 FY26
10 FY27 3,488 1,123 10 FY27
10 34,882 11,231 10
Intrinsic Value 30,948 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 44,747 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 45% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
1,701 1,519 Year 4-6 15%
2,041 1,627 Year 7-10 10%
2,450 1,744 Discount Rate 12%
2,817 1,790
3,240 1,838
3,726 1,888
4,098 1,854
4,508 1,821
4,959 1,788
5,455 1,756
81,822 26,345
Intrinsic Value 49,799
Current Mkt. Cap. 44,747
Premium/(Discount) to IV -10%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Dec/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,729.2 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 9.2 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 46,488 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 44,747 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Dec/18

1,729.2
8.5
18.4

78,278
44,747

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 1,418 32,272

44,747
Years 1-5 6-10 72%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,789)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 1,630 15% 1,456
2 1,875 15% 1,495
3 2,156 15% 1,535
4 2,479 15% 1,576
5 2,851 15% 1,618
6 3,194 12% 1,618
7 3,577 12% 1,618
8 4,006 12% 1,618
9 4,487 12% 1,618
10 5,025 12% 1,618

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 5,126
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 15,768
Terminal Value 16,503
Total PV of Cash Flows 32,272
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 44,747

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Particulars Dec/09 Dec/10 Dec/11 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,217 1,263 1,228 1,293 1,279 1,487 808
Net Profit Margin 17% 17% 14% 13% 14% 15% 9%
Return on Equity 19% 17% 15% 15% 14% 15% 8%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 6,763
Current P/E (x) 20.6
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 135,253
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 43,548
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 44,747

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Dec/16 Dec/17 Dec/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,105 1,516 2,177 7% 11%
5% 6% 8%
7% 9% 13%
 Intrinsic Value Range
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho 30,948 49,799 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 46,488 78,278 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF 32,272 understand this business?
Expected Return 43,548
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 44,747 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 4,472 4,896 5,710 6,340 5,379 6,173 6,460 6,835 6,018 6,729
% Growth YOY 20% 26% 13% 8% 12% 9%
Expenses 3,880 4,270 4,901 5,050 4,606 5,187 5,458 5,585 5,210 5,821
Operating Profit 591 626 809 1,290 773 986 1,002 1,250 807 908
Other Income 97 37 77 84 76 98 90 85 79 22
Depreciation 314 326 313 308 297 302 288 286 287 292
Interest 41 34 62 38 52 54 44 46 39 41
Profit before tax 334 303 512 1,029 500 727 759 1,002 560 597
PBT Margin 7% 6% 9% 16% 9% 12% 12% 15% 9% 9%
% Growth YOY 50% 140% 48% -3% 12% -18%
Tax 100 33 115 310 149 249 245 318 164 -781
Net profit 234 270 397 555 261 409 390 526 288 974
% Growth YOY 11% 51% -2% -5% 10% 138%
OPM 13% 13% 14% 20% 14% 16% 16% 18% 13% 13%
COMPANY NAME AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 198.56
Face Value 2
Current Price 225.35
Market Capitalization 44746.52

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Sales 6995.95 7302.72 8501.25 9749.32 9160.63 9955.34
Raw Material Cost 945.1 584.92 573.41 681.38 698.27 840.49
Change in Inventory -49.47 54.28 -57.02 200.83 -118.29 -16.22
Power and Fuel 1422.75 1697.34 2002.94 2333.96 2066.31 2268.64
Other Mfr. Exp 776.63 1036.62 1279.19 1460.26 1421.41 924.67
Employee Cost 272.84 343.67 460.1 487.94 508.47 586.33
Selling and admin 1452.62 1712.94 1928.51 2184.13 2251.9 2974.68
Other Expenses 210.87 204.58 246.96 402.65 437.28 416.04
Other Income 255.81 320.2 247.76 142.99 400.03 424.33
Depreciation 297.28 387.21 446.2 568.68 493.67 513.03
Interest 22.43 48.69 53.44 78.46 66.75 65.55
Profit before tax 1801.77 1661.23 1701.24 1895.68 1498.31 1774.02
Tax 584.93 398.26 473.75 603.86 219.87 287.51
Net profit 1216.84 1262.97 1227.74 1293.21 1278.57 1486.5
Dividend Amount 365.69 397.76 490.99 555.19 556.51 681.89

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 4471.51 4895.75 5710.19 6339.79 5379.06 6173.01
Expenses 3880.08 4270.14 4901.28 5049.72 4606.27 5187.2
Other Income 97.01 37.17 77.32 84.23 75.81 98.02
Depreciation 313.79 325.6 312.62 307.62 297.07 302.14
Interest 40.83 34.32 61.93 38.08 51.57 54.2
Profit before tax 333.82 302.86 511.68 1028.6 499.96 727.49
Tax 99.51 32.78 114.72 310.36 148.67 249.1
Net profit 234.31 270.08 396.96 555.25 260.6 408.99
Operating Profit 591.43 625.61 808.91 1290.07 772.79 985.81

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Equity Share Capital 304.74 305.97 306.87 308.44 309.17 309.95
Reserves 6162.92 7019.15 7757.8 8488.97 9152.72 9760.02
Borrowings 165.7 65.03 68.64 60.36 48.28 34.03
Other Liabilities 2259.23 2994.89 3526.4 3596.02 3576.82 3908.92
Total 8892.59 10385.04 11659.71 12453.79 13086.99 14012.92
Net Block 3444.24 5631.95 6265.75 5950.77 6146.75 6309.63
Capital Work in Progress 2714.44 930.71 487.52 523.68 697.5 692.14
Investments 722.44 621.11 806.04 1580.93 1713.54 2096.6
Other Assets 2011.47 3201.27 4100.4 4398.41 4529.2 4914.55
Total 8892.59 10385.04 11659.71 12453.79 13086.99 14012.92
Receivables 152.2 128.18 247.76 220.54 235.13 231.65
Inventory 683.24 901.86 927.76 986.93 936.41 889.97
Cash & Bank 880.9 1648.39 2073.18 2260.17 2344.98 2462.28
No. of Equity Shares 1524040900 1.53E+09 1.535E+09 1.543E+09 1.546E+09 1.55E+09
New Bonus Shares
Face value 2 2 2 2 2 2

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Cash from Operating Activity 2126.39 1875.31 1531.78 1859.95 1267.45 1675.46
Cash from Investing Activity -1194.16 -527.08 -445.02 -388.15 -496.17 -455.96
Cash from Financing Activity -465.94 -474.79 -473.02 -509.43 -672.4 -721.19
Net Cash Flow 466.29 873.44 613.74 962.37 98.88 498.31

PRICE: 106.1625 131.5375 155.31667 198.58261 170.32391 237.47955

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 152.40 153.02 153.47 154.25 154.62 155.01
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

9436.89 20093.77 23608.69 26040.94
805.64 2344.28 2853.73 3435.72
-25.4 13.17 77.72 201.72
2057.51 3994.26 4951.72 5552.47
831.33 1653.76 1782.73 1901.36
594.05 1370.07 1511.24 1524.37
3113.2 6388.2 7593.48 8636.95
467.5 1213.77 1135.93 1182.42
353.22 479.16 335.38 233.61
629.76 1460.93 1219.45 1153.94
92.47 152.99 205.78 170.5
1173.25 2007.84 2767.73 2918.54
365.37 573.77 822.85 -54.15
807.88 1105.08 1516.36 2177.4
434.53 555.98

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

6459.56 6835.12 6017.58 6728.68
5458.06 5585.11 5210.12 5820.66
89.91 84.53 79.41 22.14
288.15 286.1 287.39 292.3
44.22 46.39 39.17 40.72
759.04 1002.05 560.31 597.14
244.7 317.59 164.3 -780.74
389.88 525.53 287.7 974.29
1001.5 1250.01 807.46 908.02

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

310.38 397.13 397.13 397.13
 9961.02 19423.79 20275.07 21973.35
35 28.96 24.12 39.68
3993.82 13523.24 15345.57 15404.35
14300.22 33373.12 36041.89 37814.51
6170.17 21410.33 20898.22 20635.94
416.42 582.04 667.2 1008.17
2148.83 174.8 153.07 133.23
5564.8 11205.95 14323.4 16037.17
14300.22 33373.12 36041.89 37814.51
290.46 924.07 931.53 1304.54
897.76 2163.51 2458.27 2957.89
2853.32 4564.01 6231.58 6439.28
1.552E+09 1985971749 1985971749 1985971749

2 2 2 2

Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

1556.55 2810.29 3416.23 1726.61
-82.59 -4164.92 -738.1 -764.8
-900.19 -957.59 -1014.67 -742.21
573.77 -2312.22 1663.46 219.6

196.59762 217.4125 270.419048 213.143478

155.22 198.60 198.60 198.60

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