Poetry is art

Art is poetry

Art is the poetry of art and the poetry of arts

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Now, let’s see what this means. The program uses a random number generator to
randomly select a number between 0 and 1. Let’s say our random number for part #1
in iteration #1 is 0.045. The program looks at the distribution we’ve input, as above,
sees that 0.045 falls between 7,000 and 11,000 cycles initiation life, and interpolates
between those two lives with the same ratio as between their respective random
numbers - in this case,

[(0.045 - 0.010) / (0.060 - 0.010)] = [( X - 7000) / (11000 - 7000)]

Solving for X, we get an initiation life of 9,800 cycles.

The set of corresponding lives and random number probabilities is sometimes called
pairwise points.

This process is repeated to calculate an initiation life for each part in the fleet. What
we end up with is a distribution of initiation lives. A similar process is performed for
crack propagation, age at inspection, etc., all based on their respective distributions.
For each individual part, we end up with an assumed initiation life, propagation life,
inspection interval(s), and replacement age. The question of whether that particular
part fails is then simply a matter of looking at whether it is replaced, or its crack is
found, prior to the sum of its initiation and propagation. For example:

Part #1, currently 7,000 cycles old

Crack initiation life 9,800 cycles
Propagation life 2,500 cycles (so, part fractures at 12,300 cycles)
On-wing inspections: 8,000 cycles - no crack found (none there yet)
10,115 cycles - crack not found (based on inspection
reliability distribution)
Shop visit at 12,000 cycles; part replaced - therefore, part does not fail, as it is
scrapped prior to the point at which it fractures.

Part #2, currently 11,254 cycles old

Crack initiation life 7,714 cycles
Propagation life 4,400 cycles (part fractures at 12,114 cycles)
On-wing inspections: 13,000 cycles
Part fails prior to first inspection.

Part #3, currently 6,050 cycles old

Con tents 1. Overview and Background 1. Introduction, 1 2. Overview

of the Book, 3 3. Background Material, 5 2. Basic Concepts and Distributions for
Product Life 1 15 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. General Theory on
Continuous Distributions (Illustrated by the Exponential Distribution), 16 Normal
Distribution, 28 Lognormal Distribution, 32 Weibull Distribution, 36 Smallest Extreme
Value Distribution, 39 Gamma and Chi-square Distributions, 44 Other Distributions, 47
Shifted Distributions, 54 Conditional and Truncated Distributions. 56 Joint Distributions
and the Joint Normal Distribution. 7 1 General Theory on Discrete Distributions
(Geometric Distribution), 78 Poisson Distribution, 84 Binomial Distribution, 9 I
Hypergeometric Distribution. 96 Multinomial Distribution. 98 Problems. 100 3.
Probability Plotting of Complete and Singly Censored Data 103 How to Make a
Probability Plot of Complete Data, 108 1. Motivation, 104 2. 3. Percentiles and
Probabilities, 110 xi
xii 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. CONTENTS Exponential Probability Plot. 110 Normal
Probability Plot, 11 1 Lognormal Probability Plot, 113 Weibull Probability Plot, 1 15
Extreme Value Probability Plot, 116 Aids for Data Plotting, 117 Probability Plots of
Singly Censored Data, 120 Theory for Probability Papers, 125 Problems, 128 4.
Graphical Analysis of Multiply Censored Data 1. Hazard Plotting, 132 2. 3.
Probability Plotting of Multiply Censored Data, 146 Theory for Hazard Papers, 154
Problems, 158 5. Series Systems and Competing Risks 1. 2. 3. Series Systems of
Different Components, 163 Series Systems of Identical Parts, 168 Hazard Plots for
Data with Competing Failure Modes, 173 Problems, 187 6. Analysis of Complete
Data 1. 2. Poisson Data. 200 3. Binomial Data, 204 4. Exponential Data, 20Y 5.
Normal and Lognormal Data, 216 6. Weibull and Extreme Value Data, 226 7.
Distribution-Free Methods, 235 Problems, 243 Basic Ideas for Data Analysis, 194 7.
Linear Methods for Singly Censored Data 1. Basic Concepts, 248 2. Exponential Data,
251 3. 4. 5. Order Statistics, 294 Normal and Lognormal Data, 261 Weibull and
Extreme Value Data, 276 Problems, 309 131 162 193 247
CONTENTS 8. Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Multiply Censored Data Introduction,
3 13 1. Exponential Distribution, 316 2. Normal and Lognormal Distributions, 323 3.
Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions, 333 4. Data with Competing Failure
Modes- Maximum Likelihood Analysis, 347 5. General Maximum Likelihood
Methods and Theory, 356 6. Numerical Methods, 386 Problems, 395 siii 313 9.
Analyses of Inspection Data (Quantal-Response and Interval Data) 405 Introduction,
405 I. Graphical Analyses of Quantal-Response Data, 407 2. Maximum Likelihood
Fitting for Quantal-Response Data, 41 1 3. Graphical Analyses of Interval Data, 414
4. Maximum Likelihood Analyses for Interval Data. 418 5. ML Theory for Interval
and Quantal-Response Data. 421 Problems. 427 10. Comparisons (Hypothesis Tests)
for Complete Data Introduction, 433 1. Comparison of Poisson Samples, 438 2.
Comparison of Binomial Samples, 447 3. Comparison of Multinomial Samples, 453 4.
Comparison of Exponential Samples, 459 5. Comparison of Normal and Lognormal
Samples, 469 6. Nonparametric, Weibull, and Other Distributions, 490 7. Theoretical
Concepts for Hypothesis Tests, 491 Problems, 494 11. Comparisons With Linear
Estimators (Singly Censored and Complete Data) 1. One-Sample Comparisons, 505 2.
3. Two-Sample Comparisons. 510 4. K-Sample Comparisons, 5 15 Pooled Estimate of

a Common Parameter Value, 509 Problems, 5 1 Con tents 1. Overview

and Background 1. Introduction, 1 2. Overview of the Book, 3 3. Background Material,
5 2. Basic Concepts and Distributions for Product Life 1 15 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
11. 12. 13. 14. 15. General Theory on Continuous Distributions (Illustrated by the
Exponential Distribution), 16 Normal Distribution, 28 Lognormal Distribution, 32
Weibull Distribution, 36 Smallest Extreme Value Distribution, 39 Gamma and Chi-
square Distributions, 44 Other Distributions, 47 Shifted Distributions, 54 Conditional and
Truncated Distributions. 56 Joint Distributions and the Joint Normal Distribution. 7 1
General Theory on Discrete Distributions (Geometric Distribution), 78 Poisson
Distribution, 84 Binomial Distribution, 9 I Hypergeometric Distribution. 96 Multinomial
Distribution. 98 Problems. 100 3. Probability Plotting of Complete and Singly
Censored Data 103 How to Make a Probability Plot of Complete Data, 108 1.
Motivation, 104 2. 3. Percentiles and Probabilities, 110 xi
xii 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. CONTENTS Exponential Probability Plot. 110 Normal
Probability Plot, 11 1 Lognormal Probability Plot, 113 Weibull Probability Plot, 1 15
Extreme Value Probability Plot, 116 Aids for Data Plotting, 117 Probability Plots of
Singly Censored Data, 120 Theory for Probability Papers, 125 Problems, 128 4.
Graphical Analysis of Multiply Censored Data 1. Hazard Plotting, 132 2. 3.
Probability Plotting of Multiply Censored Data, 146 Theory for Hazard Papers, 154
Problems, 158 5. Series Systems and Competing Risks 1. 2. 3. Series Systems of
Different Components, 163 Series Systems of Identical Parts, 168 Hazard Plots for
Data with Competing Failure Modes, 173 Problems, 187 6. Analysis of Complete
Data 1. 2. Poisson Data. 200 3. Binomial Data, 204 4. Exponential Data, 20Y 5.
Normal and Lognormal Data, 216 6. Weibull and Extreme Value Data, 226 7.
Distribution-Free Methods, 235 Problems, 243 Basic Ideas for Data Analysis, 194 7.
Linear Methods for Singly Censored Data 1. Basic Concepts, 248 2. Exponential Data,
251 3. 4. 5. Order Statistics, 294 Normal and Lognormal Data, 261 Weibull and
Extreme Value Data, 276 Problems, 309 131 162 193 247
CONTENTS 8. Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Multiply Censored Data Introduction,
3 13 1. Exponential Distribution, 316 2. Normal and Lognormal Distributions, 323 3.
Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions, 333 4. Data with Competing Failure
Modes- Maximum Likelihood Analysis, 347 5. General Maximum Likelihood
Methods and Theory, 356 6. Numerical Methods, 386 Problems, 395 siii 313 9.
Analyses of Inspection Data (Quantal-Response and Interval Data) 405 Introduction,
405 I. Graphical Analyses of Quantal-Response Data, 407 2. Maximum Likelihood
Fitting for Quantal-Response Data, 41 1 3. Graphical Analyses of Interval Data, 414
4. Maximum Likelihood Analyses for Interval Data. 418 5. ML Theory for Interval
and Quantal-Response Data. 421 Problems. 427 10. Comparisons (Hypothesis Tests)
for Complete Data Introduction, 433 1. Comparison of Poisson Samples, 438 2.
Comparison of Binomial Samples, 447 3. Comparison of Multinomial Samples, 453 4.
Comparison of Exponential Samples, 459 5. Comparison of Normal and Lognormal
Samples, 469 6. Nonparametric, Weibull, and Other Distributions, 490 7. Theoretical
Concepts for Hypothesis Tests, 491 Problems, 494 11. Comparisons With Linear
Estimators (Singly Censored and Complete Data) 1. One-Sample Comparisons, 505 2.
3. Two-Sample Comparisons. 510 4. K-Sample Comparisons, 5 15 Pooled Estimate of
a Common Parameter Value, 509 Problems, 5 1