1 METEOROLOGY

Issues:
 Weather in the area of the proposed cable routes is subject to the effect of the South
East and North West Monsoons, however winds are often light to fresh breezes.
 June, July and August are the periods with the greatest chance of Force 5 or stronger
winds
 Tropical cyclones do not affect the Sumatra area cables.
 Squalls with strong gusty winds, thunder and torrential rain are fairly common.
Waterspouts sometimes form in squalls – these are a hazard to navigation that should
be avoided.
 Coastal weather patterns can vary locally
 Wet Season tends to run from December to March
 Dry Season extends from August to September
Recommendations:
 Inter-monsoon periods (April to May and October to November) should be targeted for
survey and installation.

1.1 BACKGROUND

The data provided in this section are used to determine the optimum weather windows for marine
operations associated with cable route surveying, installation, and maintenance.

Equatorial oceans, in common with the adjoining continents, are subjected to intense solar heating. This
results in heating of the overlying air mass, which rises to produce a band of (generally) low pressure.
Winds from both the north and south blow towards this low pressure region, but are diverted from straight
lines by the earth’s rotation (Coriolis force). In open waters the predominant winds are north easterlies to
the north of the equator, and south easterlies to the south of the equator. This simple pattern is modified
by two main factors:

 The oceans and land heat up and retain heat in different ways, distorting the shape of the high
pressure area.
 The seasonal change between summer and winter moves the zone of maximum heating
northward from May to August and southward from November to February.

The diffuse band where the southerly winds meet the northerly winds is referred to as the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which moves north in June-October and south in December-March, illustrated
in Figure 1.1.
 Equator

Figure 1.1: Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, January & July

(https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325954683)

Throughout the year, dominant winds blow towards the ITCZ low pressure area. The ITCZ moves across
the study area with the seasons:
 During the Austral summer, January, the study area lies inside the ITCZ. Winds are often
variable, without a well-defined dominant direction, but the north of this area is affected by
stronger Northeast Monsoon Winds from time to time, backing to Northwest Monsoon winds
south of the equator. The heaviest rains often occur at this time of year, in the form of heavy
thunderstorms and squalls. Strong persistent winds are rare, but the strongest wind gusts often
occur, associated with heavy rainfall.
 During the Austral winter, July, the ITCZ is far north of the study area. Winds blow towards the
ITCZ from the south. In the southern hemisphere, the Coriolis force diverts the wind
 to the left, giving the Southeast Trade Winds. Crossing the equator to the northern hemispere,
Coriolis diverts the wind towards the right, so this same mass of air is then known as the
Southwest Monsoon.
 In the intermediate seasons, the ITCZ is less well-developed as it moves across the area. Winds
are generally gentler and less persistent.

The general wind pattern is illustrated in Figure 1.2 (together with a colour underlay of sea surface
temperatures).
 Figure 1.2: Dominant Wind Pattern, January (with sea-surface temperature (°C))
(Source: http://psta.lapan.go.id)

Thus the seasons in the study area are dominated by the latitude of the ITCZ: the comparatively dry
Southeast Trade Winds in June-October; the wet season around December-March when the study area
lies inside the ITCZ band.

Within this general pattern, ITCZ influence The Sumatra area is hot and humid throughout the year and
experiences abundant rainfall. Northeast monsoon winds sometimes affect the area during December-
March.

In coastal areas, winds generally follow the flow of the monsoon winds; however significant local variation
may be experienced. Land and sea breezes affect all parts of the region, with local variations depending
on the topography of the land.

Mean annual rainfall in coastal areas is high increasing to 2,300-3,500mm/year in the Sumatra area.
Rainfall varies significantly seasonally and, indeed, from year to year. Much of the rainfall occurs in heavy
showers and during the frequent thunderstorms, which are most prevalent as the ITCZ transits the area.

On Sumatra Island, the rainfall pattern is positively correlated with DMI and IOBW. The station facing the
indian ocean exhibit higher amounts of rainfall and seasonal varaiation due the high mountain range
compared with the ranges facing the Malacca and Java Sea.
 Figure 1.3: Annual Precipitation on West Sumatra 2017
(Source: https://id.climate-data.org)

The nearest weather station with site is on Cubadak Mentawai station weather observation. Climate on
Cibadak classified as tropic. Precipitation on Cubadak Mentawai significantly with precipitation both in dry
and wet station. Climate on Cubadak Mentawai classified as Af based on Koppen-Geiger. It means
Cubadak Mentawai have annual precipitation more than 60 mm which have various kind of forest in
Indonesia.

Temperature average of Cubadak Mentawaii is 26.9 °C with average annual precipitation 3768 mm per
year. The lowest precipitation on July with average annual precipitation 193 mm and the highest
precipitation is on November with average annual precipitation 452 mm.

1.2 WIND EXCEEDANCE AND DIRECTION DATA

Robert Atlas and Joseph Ardizzone (NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre) in collaboration with Ross N.
Hoffman (Atmospheric and Environmental Research - AER) have produced a dataset of derived winds
over the oceans. This dataset was produced by a 2D variational analysis method (VAM) used to combine
information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10m surface
wind analyses, Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) wind speeds (NOAA satellite data processed
by Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems), and ship and buoy wind records.

The surface wind analysis covers the area between -78 and 78 degrees latitude. Data sets designated as
level 3.0 contain surface winds produced by the VAM on a 1° by 1° grid. SSM/I wind speeds have been
assimilated every 6 hours for the period July 1987 to December 1999. Data sets contain U and V
components of the wind in m/s in HDF (Hierarchical Data Format).
(http://www.data.gov/geodata/F33DCF74-5981-1CDE-AF5B-18A32C4A90E8)

These are given on a month by month basis and are derived from the Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 datasets
covering the years from 1995 to 2004. Source: SSM/I Derived Global Ocean Surface Wind Components
(Atlas et al.); Product #079
The data are based on 6 hours of readings (or analysis) per value; hence there will be a tendency to
understate the maximum winds present. However, Force 5 and above can be taken as indicative of the
conditions under which inshore survey work should be avoided, since coastal winds tend to be more
variable and lower than the offshore winds. Note however that if the dominant wind direction is onshore,
the combination of wind and wave action is likely to affect operations for a higher percentage of the time
than is indicated in the Figures. Offshore survey and installation vessels can generally operate at reduced
capacity in Force 7 conditions. No Exceedance Plots for Force 7 winds are presented since such winds
are infrequent (<0.5%) in the area.

A major caveat is that plots are based on hind cast average values. Adverse conditions will occur over
significantly longer periods than is indicated during some years. Note that episodic events such as
cyclones (refer to next section on Tropical Storms) which are of a few days duration are not well reflected
in average calculations and have little impact on the Figures.
 Figure 1.4: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, January
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.5: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, February
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.6: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, March
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.7: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, April
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.8: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, May
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.9: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, June
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.10: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, July
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.11: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, August
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.12: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, September
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.13: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, October
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.14: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, November
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
 Figure 1.15: West Area Wind Force 5 Exceedance Plot (%) & direction, December
(Atlas SSM/I level 3.0 data)
The strongest winds in the Sumatra area occur during squalls. Since these typically last for only a few
hours, they are not well represented in the drawings above. Squalls are described in the next section.

1.3 GALES AND SQUALLS

Gales or persistent winds of force 7 or over are experienced on a frequency of less than 1%. In coastal
areas, such winds are uncommon, rarely persistent and localized.

Squalls with strong gusty winds are common in the Sumatra part of the study area. These squalls are
known locally as “Sumateras”. Squalls typically form in the afternoon, associated with cumulonimbus
clouds, torrential downpours, thunder and strong gusty winds. They mostly last for an hour or two,
sometimes up to four hours, generally drifting eastwards. Sumatras squalls usually occur between March
and November each year These squalls develop at night over Sumatra or Malacca Straits and move east
toward Singapore and Pennisular until it reaches Singapore in early morning. Maximum gust of up to 26
metres per second (93 km/h) have been recorded during the passage of a Sumatra squall.

There are some hazards when Sumatras squall happend, they are thunderstroms (hail), damaging wind,
wind shear at low levels, heavy precipitation that can last for a few hours and lighting..

NorthEast
Monsoon
(Wetter)

Equator

SouthEast
Monsoon
(Dryer)

Figure 1.16: SouthWest Monsoon

(Source : Google Earth)

1.4 TROPICAL STORMS/ CYCLONES

Extreme winds are associated with cyclones. Tropical cyclonic revolving storm weather systems are
classified (based on the Safir-Simpson scale) in increasing order of severity as indicated in Table 1.1
below.
Table 1.1: Tropical Revolving Storm Classification
 Safir- Wind
Wind Pressure Winds Surge Damage
Description Simpson Strength
Scale (mb) (mph) (ft) Potential
Category (knots)
Beaufort Minimal
Depression TD ----- < 34 < 39
≤7
Beaufort Moderate
Tropical Storm TS ----- 34-47 39-54
8–9
Severe Tropical Beaufort Major
STS ----- 48-63 55-74 <4
Storm 10 – 11
Beaufort Devastating
Cyclone/Typhoon 1 > 980 64-82 74-95 4-5
12
Beaufort 96- -----
Cyclone/Typhoon 2 965-980 83-95 6-8
12 110
Beaufort 111- -----
Cyclone/Typhoon 3 945-965 96-112 9-12
12 130
Beaufort 131- -----
Cyclone/Typhoon 4 920-945 113-135 13-18
12 155
Safir- Extreme,
Super Typhoon 5 Simpson < 920 >135 >155 >18 but rare
5

Cyclones and tropical storms are not a hazard to mariners in the Sumatra part of the study area.

1.5 COASTAL WINDS

Land and sea breezes are a prominent feature of the winds in coastal areas and effects may extend to 30
to 40 km offshore and about 20 to 30km inland. The land and sea breeze cycle is most noticeable in
otherwise gentle weather conditions.

When the strength of the prevailing wind is appreciable, land and sea breezes may reinforce, oppose, or
change the strength and direction of the prevailing wind according to their relative directions. Local
topography may also produce sudden squalls. Map below explain the mean winds and standard deviation
is SST near Java Sumatra coast wind are form scatterometer winds derived from QuickSCAT satelite,
and averaged for summer during 2000-2009. SST is NOAA/AVHRR summer average from 2001-2005,
with contour interval 0,1 °C.
 Figure 1.17: Map of Mean and Standart Deviation of SST near Java Sumatra Coast Winds
(Source : Estimates of potential new production in the Java-Sumatra upwelling system -
Scientific Figure on ResearchGate. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/Map-of-
mean-winds-and-standard-deviation-of-SST-near-Java-Sumatra-coast-Winds-are-
from_fig2_257402861 [accessed 1 Oct, 2018] )

1.6 RAINFALL

There are strong variations in average rainfall across the Indonesian archipelago; strong seasonal
variations; and significant variations from one year to the next. In indication of the variability is shown in
Figure 1.18. Clearly, the Sumatra area has much more because classified as Af climate based on
Koppen-Geiger. Detailed statistics for weather stations close to the landfalls are given in the following
section.
 Figure 1.18: Annual Precipitation Projection on 2032-2040
(Source: Climate : https://www.bmkg.go.id)

1.7 WEATHER STATISTICS

1.7.1 Selected Locations

The positions of weather stations near the study areas are shown in Figure 1.. The nearest weather
station described like table below

No Weather Station Adress

1 BMKG Maritim Teluk Bayur Jl Sultan Syahrir Komp. Pelindo No 26
Rawang, Padang Sel, Kota Padang Sumatra
Barat 25123
2 BMKG Minangkabau Meteorological Jl. Mr St Moh Rasyid, Korong Talau Mundam,
Station Padang Pariaman Katapiang, Batang Anai, Kabupaten Padang
Pariaman, Sumatra Barat
3 BMKG STAMET KELAS II NIM PADANG Jl Akses Bandara, Katapian, Batang Anai
PARIAMAN Kabupaten Padang Pariaman Sumatra Barat
4 BMKG KLIMAT SICINCIN KM 51, Sicincin, Kapalo Hilalang, Kabupaten
Padang Pariaman, Sumatra Barat 25584
5 Stasiun Meteorologi Klas II Tabing Bandara Tabing, Jl Prof Dr. Hamka, Kuta
Padang Tangah, Kota Padang, Sumatra Barat 25586
6 BMKG Padang Panjang Geophysics Jl. Meteorologi, Silaing Bawah, Padang
Station Panjang Barat, Kota Padang Panjang, Sumatra
Barat 26152
7 BMKG Padang Panjang Pasar Usang, West Padang Pandang, Padang
Panjang City, West Sumatra 27211
 Study Area

Figure 1.19: Selected Weather Stations

(Source : "Google Earth)

Mean weather statistics on Mentawai and the projection on 2032-2040 described as figure below :
 Survey Area

Survey Area
 Survey Area

Figure 1.20: Temperature Change Rate, Average Minimum Temperature and Average
Maximum Temperature
(Source: Climate : https://www.bmkg.go.id)

1.7.2 Summary

Based on data collected, the summary of West Sumatra climate are :

 During the months of January and December are most likely good weather with pleasant average
temperatures
 On average, the temperatures are always high.
 A lot of rain (rainy season) falls in the months of: January, February, March, April, May, June,
July, August, September, October, November and December.
 On average, the warmest month is August.
 On average, the coolest month is September.
 November is the wettest month
 February is the driest month.

In terms of wind strength, the most suitable months for survey and cable installation are the inter-
monsoon months of:
 April - May
 October – November

The wind pattern is least suitable during the months of:

 June - September
 1.7.3 Impact on Survey

No well-marked cyclonic systems affect the area. Persistent gales are rare and the most predominant
form of adverse weather is expected to be from squalls. Squalls with very strong gusty winds, torrential
rain and lightning, are fairly common. They are most common in the Sumatra area from April to
September, but can occur at any time of year. Squalls can result in temporary low visibility due to very
heavy rain. Care should be taken with navigation during squalls and strong gusts of wind could make
position keeping difficult. Squalls could also pose a threat to personnel on deck. Since they seldom last
for more than a few hours, their impact on survey operations is usually limited.

1.7.4 Impact on Installation

The comments on survey, above, apply equally to installation. Installation should be targeted for months
when the chance of Force 5 or above wind speeds is at its lowest.

1.7.5 Impact on Maintenance

There is no significant weather impact on cable maintenance and repairs should be possible throughout
the year.