International Dimensions of

Civil War
 Causes of Civil War
• Motives to oppose the state:
– Poverty & Economic inequality.
– Ethnic discrimination/persecution
– Personal enrichment
• Yet
Yet, poverty,
poverty inequality
inequality, ethnic tensions
tensions, etc
etc,
are common. Only a small fraction of
“aggrieved”
aggrieved people rebel
rebel.
• Political opportunities and state weakness.
• Rebels
R b l need d resources tto survive.
i
 Domestic “Anarchy”
Anarchy
• Classic IR theory considers international
realm to be “anarchic” while domestic
politics is “hierarchic.”
p
• Yet, many central governments do not fully
y
control their territory.
• Financial weakness, poor infrastructure,
weak military,y difficult g
geography.
g p y
• Also, non-responsive regimes unwilling to
accommodate citizen demands.
The Repression-Accommodation
Repression Accommodation Curve
Atttractivenesss of
Rebellion
n

Repression Accomodation
(autocracy) (democracy)
 Superpower Competition
• During the Cold War, the US and USSR competed for
global power and influence.
influence
• Proxy wars in developing countries.
– Rather than fight directly, fund opposition.
– Yet,
Y t loyalties
l lti nott always
l secure.
• Afghanistan: Soviet-backed gov’t versus mujahedeen.
• Nicaragua: Sandinistas v. Contras.
• El Salvador and Guatemala: Military dictatorships v.
leftist rebels.
 Proxy Wars Elsewhere
• US and USSR not only countries that fund rebel
movements. t
• Iran-Iraq rivalry.
– SCIRI and Mujahedin-e-Khalq
Mujahedin e Khalq
• Rwanda versus Zaire.
– Rwandan ggenocide in 1994.
– Mobutu supporting Hutu government in exile.
– Rwanda backs ADFL (Laurent Kabila) to depose Mobutu
in 1997
1997.
– However, Laurent Kabila turns on former backers.
 After the Cold War: International
Black Markets and Rebel Financing
 Cross-Border
Cross Border Sanctuaries
•Governments may be weak in remote areas. However, governments
have no control/authority outside of their territory.
•States are geographically limited, rebels may be transnational.

•Hard
Hard to repress rebels beyond borders.
-Unfamiliar areas
-Conflict with neighbors
g
-Governance costs
•Organization among refugees.
•Weak neighbors and rival neighbors.
Transnational
T i lE
Ethnic
h i Ti
Ties:
Civil War and Irredentism
 Spillover Effects: Refugees
• Refugees impose a humanitarian burden, frequently
on the poorest states.
• Health effects.
• Economic
E i competitors.
tit
• Can upset the ethnic balance in a country.
• Risk
Ri k th
the spreadd off conflict
fli t across b
borders.
d
Spillover Effects: Drug Production
Failed States and
International Terrorism

• Afghanistan wars and development of

global
l b l IIslamic
l i militancy.
ilit
• More recently, Somalia as a haven for
extremists.
t i t
• “Strong international engagement to bring
peace internally and to reconstruct failed
states is required now if longer-term
counter-terrorism
counter terrorism objectives are to be
achieved.” --International Crisis Group