Table 1.

Total Female Individual Population of Los Baños, Calamba City

TOTAL
YEAR LOS BAñOS CALAMBA CABUYAO INDIVIDUAL
POPULATION
2012 47,053 141,145 100,515 288,713
2013 51,928 145,535 109,392 306,855
2014 56,330 150,061 109,392 315,783
2015 57,319 154,728 109,392 321,439
2016 58,325 159,540 110,357 328,222
TOTAL 270,955 751,009 539,048 1,561,012
Source: Municipalities of Los Baños, Calamba and Cabuyao City

Table 2. Historical Demand

Percentage
Total Population of Population
Los Baños, Calamba of Individual
Earning
35B16:H34B16:G33B16:H32B16:H30B1B16:I24
and Cabuyao City Result who are
(Female; 10- P10,000-
buying PANTY
50yrs.old) Above
LINER
2012 288,713 85% 245,406 80%
2013 306,855 85% 260,827 80%
2014 315,783 85% 268,416 80%
2015 321,439 85% 273,223 80%
2016 328,222 85% 278,989 80%
TOTAL 1,561,012 1,326,860
Source: Actual Survey - Interview

SLOVIN'S FORMULA:
n = N
1 + Ne2

n = 1,561,012
1 +

n = 1,561,012
15,610

n = 100
 SLOVIN'S FORMULA:
286,713 n = N
304,855 1 + Ne2
313,783
319,439 n = 1,561,012
326,222 1 +

POPULATION EARNING P5,000-ABOVE n = 1,561,012

15,610

n = 100

Average Annual
Usage of Panty HISTORICAL
Result
liner per pack DEMAND
(twice a day)

196,325 38 7,460,344
208,661 38 7,929,133
214,732 38 8,159,833
218,579 38 8,305,984
223,191 38 8,481,256
1,061,488 40,336,550

Ne2

1,561,012
1,561,012 (.05)2

,012
610
SLOVIN'S FORMULA:
N Where: n = sample size of the respondents
1 + Ne2 N = Total Population of the target market
e = marginal error (5%)
1,561,012
1,561,012 (.10)2

1,561,012
15,610

100
 ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

Table 2.1. Historical Values: Arithmetic Straight Line

STEP I
YEAR Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2012 7,460,344 - -
2013 7,929,133 255,228.14 + 7,460,344 = 7,715,572
2014 8,159,833 255,228.14 + 7,715,572 = 7,970,800
2015 8,305,984 255,228.14 + 7,970,800 = 8,226,028
2016 8,481,256 255,228.14 + 8,226,028 = 8,481,256
TOTAL 40,336,550

Year Y A Yi-1 Yc Y-Yc

₱ 2,011.00 7,460,344 - 0.00
₱ 2,012.00 7,929,133 ### 10,214,284 ### 213,561
₱ 2,013.00 8,159,833 ### 7,715,572 ### 189,033
₱ 2,014.00 8,305,984 ### 7,970,800 ### 79,955
₱ 2,015.00 8,481,256 ### 8,226,028 ### 0
Total 40,336,550
LINE

e
STEP II Computations:
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)2 a= Yn - Yc /
σ =
0.00 0.00 N -1
213,561.14 45,608,360,518.10 = 8,481,256 - 7,460,344 = /
189,032.52 35,733,293,617.55 5-1 σ =
79,955.42 6,392,869,187.38 a = 255,228.14
0.00 0.00
= 87,734,523,323.03 Yn = last year
Yc = first year

(Y-Yc)
0.00
45,608,360,518
35,733,293,618
6,392,869,187
0
87,734,523,323
 Table 2.2. Projected Values: Arithmetic Straight Line
87,734,523,323.03 YEAR a +
5 2017 255,228.14 +
17,546,904,664.61 2018 255,228.14 +
132,464.73 2019 255,228.14 +
2020 255,228.14 +
2021 255,228.14 +

Year A
₱ 2,016.00 ###
₱ 2,017.00 ###
₱ 2,018.00 ###
₱ 2,019.00 ###
₱ 2,020.00 ###
alues: Arithmetic Straight Line
Yi - 1 = Yc
8,481,256 = 8,736,485
8,736,485 = 8,991,713
8,991,713 = 9,246,941
9,246,941 = 9,502,169
9,502,169 = 9,757,397

Yi-1 Yc
8,481,256 ###
8,736,485 ###
8,991,713 ###
9,246,941 ###
9,502,169 ###
 ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE

Table 2.3. Historical Values: Arithmetic Geometric Curve

STEP I
% INCREASE
YEAR Y (DECREASE) Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc
2012 7,460,344 - 7,326,428 ÷ 1.05 = 6,977,550.70
2013 7,929,133 6.28 7,692,750 ÷ 1.05 = 7,326,428.23
2014 8,159,833 2.91 8,077,387 ÷ 1.05 = 7,692,749.64
2015 8,305,984 1.79 8,481,256 ÷ 1.05 = 8,077,387.12
2016 8,481,256 2.11
TOTAL 40,336,550 20.96

₱ 1.05

%increase
Year Y Yi+1 1+r Yc Y-Yc
(decrease)
₱ 2,011.00 7,460,344 ### 1.05 ### 482,793
₱ 2,012.00 7,929,133 4.29 ### 1.05 ### 602,705
₱ 2,013.00 8,159,833 5.14 ### 1.05 ### 467,083
₱ 2,014.00 8,305,984 5.45 ### 1.05 ### 228,597
₱ 2,015.00 8,481,256 6.08 0 0.00 0 0
Total 40,336,550 20.96 ###
CURVE

ve
STEP II
Computations:
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)2 2013
482,793.22 233,089,297,680.38 %= ( 7,929,133 -
[
602,704.97 363,253,280,606.29 7,460,344
467,083.08 218,166,602,012.39 % = 6.28
228,596.64 52,256,422,077.60 2014
0.00 %= ( 8,159,833 -
[
= 866,765,602,376.65 7,929,133
% = 2.91
2015
%= ( 8,305,984 -
[
8,159,833
% = 1.79
2016
%= ( 8,481,256 -
[
8,305,984
% = 2.11
(Y-Yc)

###
###
###
###
0
###
 7,460,344 ) (1 + r) = [ % Increase ]
] ₱ 100.00 [ ] ÷ 100 +
7,460,344 N-1
=[ 20.96 ]
[ ] ÷ 100 +
5-1
7,929,133 ) (1 + r) = 1.05
] ₱ 100.00
7,929,133

/ 866,765,602,376.65
σ=
8,159,833 ) 5
] ₱ 100.00
8,159,833 = / 173,353,120,475.33
σ = 416,356.96

8,305,984 )
] ₱ 100.00
8,305,984
 Table 2.4. Projected Values: Arithmetic Geometric Curve
YEAR Yi - 1 x (1 + r) =
2017 8,481,256 x 1.05 =
/ 866,765,602,376.65 2018 8,905,319 x 1.05 =
1 σ=
5 2019 9,350,585 x 1.05 =
= / 173,353,120,475.33 2020 9,818,115 x 1.05 =
1
σ = 416,356.96 2021 10,309,020 x 1.05 =

Year Yi+1 1+r Yc

₱ 2,016.00 ### ₱ 1.05 ###
₱ 2,017.00 ### ₱ 1.05 ###
₱ 2,018.00 ### ₱ 1.05 ###
₱ 2,019.00 ### ₱ 1.05 ###
₱ 2,020.00 ### ₱ 1.05 ###
c Geometric Curve
Yc
8,905,319
9,350,585
9,818,115
10,309,020
10,824,471

Yc
 STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

Table 2.5. Historical Values: Statistical Straight Line

STEP I
YEAR
Y X X2 XY a + b
2012 7,460,344 1 1 7,460,344 7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57
2013 7,929,133 2 4 15,858,266 7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57
2014 8,159,833 3 9 24,479,498 7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57
2015 8,305,984 4 16 33,223,935 7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57
2016 8,481,256 5 25 42,406,282 7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57
TOTAL 40,336,550 15 55 123,428,326

Year Y x x2 XY A Bx Yc
₱ 2,011.00 10,214,284 ₱ 1.00 ₱ 1.00 10,214,284 7,341,707.31 ### 7,583,574.88
₱ 2,012.00 10,652,858 ₱ 2.00 ₱ 4.00 21,305,717 7,341,707.31 ### 7,825,442
₱ 2,013.00 8,159,833 ₱ 3.00 ₱ 9.00 24,479,498 7,341,707.31 ### 8,067,310
₱ 2,014.00 8,305,984 ₱ 4.00 ₱ 16.00 33,223,935 7,341,707.31 ### 8,309,178
₱ 2,015.00 8,481,256 ₱ 5.00 ₱ 25.00 42,406,282 7,341,707.31 ### 8,551,045
Total 40,336,550 ₱15.00 ₱ 55.00 123,428,326 ###
IGHT LINE

STEP I STEP II
( x )= Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)2 Computations:
( 1 ) = 7,583,574.88 -123,230.96 15,185,869,503 a= Y -b X
( 2 ) = 7,825,442.45 103,690.75 10,751,772,050 n n
( 3 ) = 8,067,310.02 92,522.70 8,560,450,755 b= n XY - X Y
( 4 ) = 8,309,177.58 -3,193.82 10,200,512 n X -(2
X) 2

( 5 ) = 8,551,045.15 -69,788.67 4,870,458,740

= 39,378,751,560

Y-Yc (Y-Yc)
### ###
### ###
### ###
### ###
### ###
###
 b = ( 5 ) ( 123,428,326 ) ( 15 ) ( 40,336,550 ) a= 40,336,550
5(55) - (15)2 5
- X Y b= 12,093,378 = 8,067,310.02
-( X) 2
50 = 8,067,310.02
b= 241,867.57 a= 7,341,707.31
 Table 2.6. Projected Valu
40,336,550 -241,867.57 15 / 39,378,751,559.59 YEAR
( ) σ=
5 5 5 2017
8,067,310.02 -241,867.57 ( 3 ) =/ 7,875,750,311.92 2018
8,067,310.02 -725,602.70 σ = 88,745.42 2019
7,341,707.31 2020
2021
Table 2.6. Projected Values: Statistical Straight Lin
a + b = Yc Year X
7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57 ( 6 ) = 8,792,913 ₱ 2,016.00 ₱ 6.00

7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57 ( 7 ) = 9,034,780 ₱ 2,017.00 ₱ 7.00

7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57 ( 8 ) = 9,276,648 ₱ 2,018.00 ₱ 8.00

7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57 ( 9 ) = 9,518,515 ₱ 2,019.00 ₱ 9.00

7,341,707.31 + 241,867.57 ( 10 ) = 9,760,383 ₱ 2,020.00 ₱ 10.00
 A bx Yc
11,521,544 -7,588,015 3,933,530
11,521,544 -8,852,684 2,668,861
11,521,544 -10,117,353 1,404,192
11,521,544 -11,382,022 139,522
11,521,544 -12,646,691 -1,125,147
 STATISTICAL PAR

STEP
YEAR Y X X2 X4 XY X2Y a +
2012 7,460,344 -2 4 16 -14,920,688 29,841,376 8,163,250.24 +
2013 7,929,133 -1 1 1 -7,929,133 7,929,133 8,163,250.24 +
2014 8,159,833 0 0 0 0 0 8,163,250.24 +
2015 8,305,984 1 1 1 8,305,984 8,305,984 8,163,250.24 +
2016 8,481,256 2 4 16 16,962,513 33,925,026 8,163,250.24 +
TOTAL 40,336,550 10 34 2,418,676 80,001,519

A Bx
9,806,408 ###
9,806,408 ###
9,806,408 ###
9,806,408 ###
9,806,408 ###
49,032,039 ###
STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

STEP I STEP II
b x + c X2 = Yc Y - Yc
241,867.57 ( -2 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( -2 2 ) = 7,487,634.65 -27,290.73
241,867.57 ( -1 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( -1 2
) = 7,873,412.56 55,720.64
241,867.57 ( 0 )+( -47,970.11 ) ( 0 2 ) = 8,163,250.24 -3,417.52
241,867.57 ( 1 )+( -47,970.11 ) ( 1 2 ) = 8,357,147.70 -51,163.94
241,867.57 ( 2 )+( -47,970.11 ) ( 2 2
) = 8,455,104.92 26,151.56
=

###
###
###
###
###

cx YcY-Yc
(Y-Yc)
-188,988 #########
-377,976 #########
-566,965 #########
-755,953 #########
-944,941 #########
-2,834,824 #########
STEP II
(Y - Yc)2 Computations:
744,784,021.91 a = ( X4) ( Y) - ( X2) ( X2
3,104,789,467.29 n ( X4) - ( X2) 2
11,679,474.20 = ( 34 ) ( 40,336,550 ) - (
2,617,748,580.90 (5)(34) - (10)2
683,903,911.11 = 571,427,517.12
7,162,905,455.40 70
a = 8,163,250.24
( X4) ( Y) - ( X2) ( X2Y) b= XY c
n( X)-( X)
4 2 2
X 2

10 ) ( 80,001,519 ) = 2,418,676
(5)(34) - (10)2 10
b = 241,867.57

c
c= n ( X2Y) - ( X2) ( Y)
σ
n ( X4) - ( X2)2
= ( 5 ) ( 80,001,519 ) - ( 10 ) ( 40,336,550 ) =
(5)(34) - (10)2 σ
= -3,357,908
70
c= -47,970.11

₱ 476,908,310.00 ₱ 480,937,800.00
 Table 2.8. Projected Values: Statistical Parabolic for Demand
YEAR a + b x +
/ 7,162,905,455.40 2017 8,163,250.24 + 241,867.57 ( 3 )
=
5 2018 8,163,250.24 + 241,867.57 ( 4 )
= / 1,432,581,091.08 2019 8,163,250.24 + 241,867.57 ( 5 )
= 37,849.45 2020 8,163,250.24 + 241,867.57 ( 6 )
2021 8,163,250.24 + 241,867.57 ( 7 )
c for Demand
+ c X2 = Yc Year X
+ ( -47,970.11 ) ( 32 ) = 8,457,121.92 2016 3
+ ( -47,970.11 ) ( 42 ) = 8,363,198.69 2017 4
+ ( -47,970.11 ) ( 52 ) = 8,173,335.23 2018 5
+ ( -47,970.11 ) ( 62 ) = 7,887,531.54 2019 6
+ ( -47,970.11 ) ( 72 ) = 7,505,787.62 2020 7

cX2
x2 a bx cx Yc
9 9,806,407.72 5,632,710.80 -1,700,894.19 13,738,224.33
16 9,806,407.72 7,510,281.06 -3,023,811.90 14,292,876.89
25 9,806,407.72 9,387,851.33 -4,724,706.09 14,469,552.96
36 9,806,407.72 11,265,421.59 -6,803,576.76 14,268,252.55
49 9,806,407.72 13,142,991.86 -9,260,423.93 13,688,975.65
 HISTORICAL SUPP

Table 3. Historical Supply

YEAR Those Days Sisters

2012 1,440,000 1,440,001

2013 1,468,800 1,468,801
2014 1,498,176 1,498,177
2015 1,528,140 1,528,141
2016 1,558,702 1,558,703
7,493,818
TOTAL 7,493,823

Source: Puregold, Robinsons, Olivarez Supermarkets and Mercury D

Table 3.1. Historical Supply on Percentage Rates

YEAR Those Days Sisters

2012 24% 24%

2013 24% 24%
2014 24% 24%
2015 24% 24%
2016 24% 24%
TOTAL 24% 24%
 ₱ 2,013.00
24.04% 24.04% 17.31%

#REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
 HISTORICAL SUPPLY

HISTORICAL SUPPLY
Charmee Carefree Kotex
(Per Pack)

1,036,800 1,036,801 1,036,802 5,990,404

1,057,536 1,057,537 1,057,538 6,110,212
1,078,687 1,078,688 1,078,689 6,232,416
1,100,260 1,100,262 1,100,263 6,357,065
1,122,266 1,122,267 1,122,268 6,484,206

5,395,549 5,395,554 5,395,559 31,174,303

Supermarkets and Mercury Drug Stores

tage Rates

Charmee Carefree Kotex

HISTORICAL SUPPLY (Per Pack)

17% 17% 17% 100%

17% 17% 17% 100%
17% 17% 17% 100%
17% 17% 17% 100%
17% 17% 17% 100%
17% 17% 17% 100%
#REF! #REF!
Potential Entrants
Substitute Products
#REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! Potential Entrants

#REF! #REF! Substitute Products

#REF! TOTAL
#REF! #REF!
 Those Days Sisters Charmee

3 competitors 3 competitors 3 competitors

200 boxes/month 200 boxes/month
200 packs/box 200 packs/box 48boxes*3/month=144 boxes

Mercury-Calamba
puregold: 200 boxes puregold: 200 boxes 144boxes
Mercury-LB
robinson: 200 boxes robinson: 200 boxes 144boxes
Mercury-Cabuyao
olivarez: 200 boxes olivarez: 200 boxes 144 boxes
total: 600 boxes total: 600 boxes total: 144 boxes

144 boxes* 3competitors*200 pcs/box*12 mos.

ntial Entrants
titute Products
 Carefree Kotex

3 competitors 3 competitors

/month=144 boxes

Mercury-Calamba Mercury-Calamba
144boxes 144boxes

Mercury-LB 144 boxes Mercury-LB 144 boxes

Mercury-Cabuyao 144 Mercury-Cabuyao 144
boxes boxes
total: 144 boxes total: 144 boxes

* 3competitors*200 pcs/box*12 mos.

 ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE

Table 3.1. Historical Values: Arithmetic Straight Line

STEP I STEP II
YEAR Y a + Yi - 1 = Yc Y - Yc
2012 5,990,404 - - 0.00
2013 6,110,212 123,450.49 + 5,990,404 = 6,113,854 -3,642.41
2014 6,232,416 123,450.49 + 6,113,854 = 6,237,305 -4,888.65
2015 6,357,065 123,450.49 + 6,237,305 = 6,360,755 -3,690.81
2016 6,484,206 123,450.49 + 6,360,755 = 6,484,206 0.00
TOTAL 31,174,303 =
ne
STEP II Computations:
(Y - Yc)2 a= Yn - Yc / 50,788,065.59
σ=
0.00 N -1 5
13,267,115.99 = 6,484,206 - 5,990,404 = / 10,157,613.12
23,898,888.03 5-1 σ = 3,187.10
13,622,061.57 a = 123,450.49
0.00
50,788,065.59 Yn = last year
Yc = first year
Table 3.2. Projected Values: Arithmetic Straight Line
YEAR a + Yi - 1 = Yc
2017 123,450.49 + 6,484,206 = 6,607,656
2018 123,450.49 + 6,607,656 = 6,731,107
2019 123,450.49 + 6,731,107 = 6,854,557
2020 123,450.49 + 6,854,557 = 6,978,008
2021 123,450.49 + 6,978,008 = 7,101,458
 ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE

Table 3.3. Historical Values: Arithmetic Geometric Curve

STEP I
% INCREASE
YEAR Y (DECREASE) Yi + 1 ÷ (1 + r) = Yc
2012 5,990,404 - 6,293,506 ÷ 1.02 = 6,231,194.46
2013 6,110,212 2 6,356,441 ÷ 1.02 = 6,293,506.40
2014 6,232,416 2 6,420,006 ÷ 1.02 = 6,356,441.47
2015 6,357,065 2 6,484,206 ÷ 1.02 = 6,420,005.88
2016 6,484,206 2
TOTAL 31,174,303 8

₱ 1.01
VE

STEP II
Computations:
Y - Yc (Y - Yc)2 2013
-240,790.46 57,980,045,084.09 % = ( 6,110,212 - 5,990,404 )
[ ]
-183,294.32 33,596,809,013.16 5,990,404
-124,025.15 15,382,236,814.52 % = 2.00
-62,941.23 3,961,598,954.93 2014
0.00 % = ( 6,232,416 - 6,110,212 )
[ ]
= 110,920,689,866.70 6,110,212
% = 2.00
2015
% = ( 6,357,065 - 6,232,416 )
[ ]
6,232,416
% = 2.00
2016
% = ( 6,484,206 - 6,357,065 )
[ ]
6,357,065
% = 2.00
 (1 + r) = [ % Increase ] /
₱ 100.00 [ ] ÷ 100 + 1 σ =
N-1
= [ 8 ] = /
[ ] ÷ 100 + 1
5-1 σ =
(1 + r) = 1.02
₱ 100.00
/ 110,920,689,866.70
σ =
5
= / 22,184,137,973.34
₱ 100.00
σ = 148,943.41

₱ 100.00
 Table 3.4. Projected Values: Arithmetic
Geometric Curve
YEAR Yi - 1 x (1 + r) = Yc
2017 6,484,206 x 1.01 = 6,549,048
110,920,689,866.70 2018 6,549,048 x 1.01 = 6,614,538
5 2019 6,614,538 x 1.01 = 6,680,684
22,184,137,973.34 2020 6,680,684 x 1.01 = 6,747,491
148,943.41 2021 6,747,491 x 1.01 = 6,814,966
 STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE

Table 3.5. Historical Values: Statistical Straight Line

STEP I
YEAR Y X X2 XY a + b ( x ) =
2012 5,990,404 1 1 5,990,404 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 1 ) =
2013 6,110,212 2 4 12,220,424 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 2 ) =
2014 6,232,416 3 9 18,697,249 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 3 ) =
2015 6,357,065 4 16 25,428,259 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 4 ) =
2016 6,484,206 5 25 32,421,030 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 5 ) =
TOTAL 31,174,303 15 55 94,757,365
E

I STEP II
Yc Y - Yc (Y - Yc)2 Computations:
5,987,969.31 2,434.69 5,927,725 a = Y -b X b = ( 5 )
6,111,414.95 -1,202.87 1,446,904 n n
6,234,860.60 -2,444.28 5,974,488 b = n XY - X Y b = 6,172,282
6,358,306.24 -1,241.60 1,541,558 n X2 - ( X)2 50
6,481,751.89 2,454.05 6,022,375 b = 123,445.65
= 20,913,050
 ( 94,757,365 ) ( 15 ) ( 31,174,303 ) a = 31,174,303 -123,445.65 15
(
5(55) - (15)2 5 5
6,172,282 = 6,234,860.60 -123,445.65 ( 3
50 = 6,234,860.60 -370,336.94
123,445.65 a = 5,864,523.66
 Table 3.6. Projected Values: Statistical Straight Line
/ 20,913,049.86 YEAR a + b =
) σ =
5 2017 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 6 ) =
) = / 4,182,609.97 2018 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 7 ) =
σ = 2,045.14 2019 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 8 ) =
2020 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 9 ) =
2021 5,864,523.66 + 123,445.65 ( 10 ) =
ht Line
Yc
6,605,198
6,728,643
6,852,089
6,975,534
7,098,980
 STATISTICAL PARA

Table 3.7. Historical Values: Statistical Parabolic

YEAR Y X X2 X4 XY X2Y
2011 5,990,404.00 -2 4 16 -11,980,808.00 23,961,616.00 a
2013 6,110,212.08 -1 1 1 -6,110,212.08 6,110,212.08 6,232,416.24
2014 6,232,416.32 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 6,232,416.24
2015 6,357,064.65 1 1 1 6,357,064.65 6,357,064.65 6,232,416.24
2016 6,484,205.94 2 4 16 12,968,411.88 25,936,823.76 6,232,416.24
TOTAL 31,174,302.99 10 34 1,234,456.45 62,365,716.49 6,232,416.24
STATISTICAL PARABOLIC

STEP I STEP II
+ b x + c X 2
= Yc Y - Yc
+ 123,445.65 ( -2.00 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( -2 2 ) = 5,990,413.67 -9.67
+ 123,445.65 ( -1.00 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( -1 2 ) = 6,110,192.77 19.31
+ 123,445.65 ( 0.00 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 02 ) = 6,232,416.24 0.08
+ 123,445.65 ( 1.00 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 12 ) = 6,357,084.06 -19.42
+ 123,445.65 ( 2.00 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 22 ) = 6,484,196.25 9.69
=

4.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
STEP II
(Y - Yc)2 Computations:
93.45 a = ( X4) ( Y) - ( X2) ( X2Y) b =
372.73 n ( X4) - ( X2)2
0.01 a = ( 34 ) ( 31,174,303 ) - ( 10 ) ( 62,365,716 ) b =
376.97 (5)(34) - (10)2
93.98 = 436,269,136.76 b =
937.13 70.00
a = 6,232,416.24
 XY c = n ( X2Y) - ( X2) ( Y) /
σ =
X2 n ( X4) - ( X2)2
1,234,456.45 c = ( 5 ) ( 62,365,716 ) - ( 10 ) ( 31,174,303 ) = /
10.00 (5)(34) - (20)2 σ =
123,445.65 = 85,552.55
70.00
c = 1,222.18
 Table 3.8. Projected Values: Statistical Parabolic
YEAR a + b x + c X2 =
937.13 2017 6,232,416.24 + 123,445.65 ( 3 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 32 ) =
5.00 2018 6,232,416.24 + 123,445.65 ( 4 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 42 ) =
187.43 2019 6,232,416.24 + 123,445.65 ( 5 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 52 ) =
13.69 2020 6,232,416.24 + 123,445.65 ( 6 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 62 ) =
2021 6,232,416.24 + 123,445.65 ( 7 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 72 ) =
 Yc
6,613,752.79
6,745,753.69
6,880,198.95
7,017,088.57
7,156,422.54
Table 2.9. Summary of Standard Deviation: Historical Dema Table 2.10. Projected Values Using Sta
Arithmetic Straight Line 132,464.73 YEAR a
Arithmetic Geometric Curve 416,356.96 2017 8,163,250.24
Statistical Straight Line 88,745.42 2018 8,163,250.24
Statistical Parabolic 37,849.45 OK 2019 8,163,250.24
2020 8,163,250.24
2021 8,163,250.24
Table 3.9. Summary of Standard Deviation: Historical Suppl
Arithmetic Straight Line 3,187.10
Arithmetic Geometric Curve 148,943.41
Statistical Straight Line 2,045.14 Table 3.10. Projected Values Using Sta
Statistical Parabolic 13.69 OK YEAR a
2017 6,232,416.24
2018 6,232,416.24
2019 6,232,416.24
2020 6,232,416.24
2021 6,232,416.24
ed Values Using Statistical Parabolic for Demand
+ b ### x ###+### c ###
### X2 ₱ - ###= Yc
+ 241,867.57 ( 3 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( 3 2.00 ) = 8,457,121.92
+ 241,867.57 ( 4 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( 4 2.00 ) = 8,363,198.69
+ 241,867.57 ( 5 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( 5 2.00 ) = 8,173,335.23
+ 241,867.57 ( 6 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( 6 2.00 ) = 7,887,531.54
+ 241,867.57 ( 7 ) + ( -47,970.11 ) ( 7 2.00 ) = 7,505,787.62

ed Values Using Statistical Parabolic for Supply

+ b x + c X2 = Yc
+ 123,445.65 ( 3 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 3 2.00 ) = 6,613,752.79
+ 123,445.65 ( 4 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 4 2.00 ) = 6,745,753.69
+ 123,445.65 ( 5 ) + ( 1,222.18 ` ( 5 2.00 ) = 6,880,198.95
+ 123,445.65 ( 6 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 6 2.00 ) = 7,017,088.57
+ 123,445.65 ( 7 ) + ( 1,222.18 ) ( 7 2.00 ) = 7,156,422.54
1,843,369.13
1,617,445.00
1,293,136.28
870,442.97
349,365.08
Table 4. Projected Unsatisfied Demand
PROJECTED PROJECTED UNSATISFIED
YEAR DEMAND SUPPLY DEMAND (per pack)
2017 8,792,913 6,613,753 2,179,160
2018 9,034,780 6,745,754 2,289,027
2019 9,276,648 6,880,199 2,396,449
2020 9,518,515 7,017,089 2,501,427
2021 9,760,383 7,156,423 2,603,960

Table 5. Market Share

UNSATISFIED ACCEPTANCE PROJECTED MARKET
YEAR
DEMAND FACTOR DEMAND SHARE
2017 1,253,590 75% 7,867,343 11.95%
2018 1,337,997 75% 8,083,751 12.41%
2019 1,419,960 75% 8,300,159 12.83%
2020 1,499,478 75% 8,516,566 13.20%
2021 1,576,552 75% 8,732,974 13.54%
Market Share = Unsatisfied Demand * Acceptance Factor
Projected Demand

MAXIMUM MAXIMUM
ANNUAL DAILY
INCREASE CAPACITY CAPACITY
149,811 414
0.46% 166,096 459
0.42% 182,191 503
0.37% 198,005 547
0.33% 213,460 590
503