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2. UNCERTAINTY DUE TO IRE SOURCES 0.2
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Generation scheduling is usually done prior to operation
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based on expected system demand so as to achieve a secure
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and economic operation of the system. If line transmis- 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
sion constraints are considered, the optimal dispatch is Scheduled IRE output, Pr [fraction of generation capacity]
obtained by solving the optimal power flow (OPF) problem Fig. 2. IRE uncertainty cost curves (κo = 1 and κu = 0.1).
(Lubin et al., 2017). Optimal dispatch of conventional gen-
eration is based on the cost characteristics of the thermal
generators; the most important component being the fuel Cr = κo pro + κu pru (1)
costs. IRE sources are however characterized by near zero where pro and pru are the expected values of the IRE
fuel costs since their inputs (solar irradiation or blowing overestimate and underestimate respectively i.e.:
wind) are free. Therefore, based on the fuel costs, all r
P
available power from IRE sources should be utilized. The (Pr − pr ) f (pr ) dpr
main operating cost relating to IRE sources then arises pro = 0 (2)
from the fact that the available IRE power may be less r
P
f (pr ) dpr
than scheduled due to unpredictability. The uncertainty 0
of the IRE sources has to be covered by reserve generation and
that is typically more expensive than the conventional max
Pr
generation. In a manner similar to the fuel costs of thermal (Pr − pr ) f (pr ) dpr
generators, the cost of covering for IRE uncertainty can be Pr
pru = (3)
used to decide on an optimal value for the scheduled IRE max
Pr
generation. f (pr ) dpr
Pr
The approach proposed in Hetzer et al. (2008) is used to
model the IRE uncertainty costs in this paper. Let f (pr ) Consider an IRE resource whose probability distribution
be the probability distribution of the actual output pr is as shown in Fig. 1. The values of pro and pru for a
of an IRE source and Pr be the scheduled value. If the scheduled value Pr will be as shown. The variation of
actual IRE generation is lower than the scheduled value IRE uncertainty costs with scheduled IRE generation for
(pr < Pr ), generation reserves have to be operated to cover different values of the mean IRE forecast and forecast error
for the shortfall due to the overestimation which will incur standard deviation will be as shown in Fig. 2. The IRE
an associated IRE overestimation cost. On the other hand, uncertainty cost curves depend on the cost coefficients κo
if at the time of operation, actual IRE generation is higher and κu as shown in Hetzer et al. (2008).
than the scheduled value (pr > Pr ), the system operator
may have to either curtail the extra IRE power due to 3. DYNAMIC LINE RATING OF OVERHEAD
underestimation, or by fast re-dispatch reduce the amount CONDUCTORS
of power bought from thermal generation incurring a
penalty cost for loss of revenue for generation companies. The conductor current carrying capacity (ampacity), Imax ,
These actions can be modeled by an IRE underestimation is defined as the maximum current that a conductor can
cost (Hetzer et al., 2008). If a constant unit cost for IRE carry without its temperature exceeding a maximum al-
overestimation κo is assumed and similarly, a constant lowable limit; where the maximum allowable limit refers
unit cost for IRE underestimation κu is assumed, then the to the conductor temperature that would result either in
expected cost due to IRE uncertainty Cr will be given by: excessive sag or in significant loss of the conductor’s tensile
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Tokyo, Japan, September 4-6, 2018 Bonface O. Ngoko et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-28 (2018) 185–190 187
3.0
SLR current. The dynamic line rating (DLR) is a less
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conservative approach in which the ambient weather condi-
2.0
tions around a conductor are monitored and the real-time
1.5 Ta = 0 C
o
weather conditions are used to periodically re-evaluate the
T = 10oC
1.0
a
T = 20 C
o
ampacity of the line. Since the ambient weather conditions
SLR a
0.5 Ta = 30 C
o are usually better at cooling the conductor than the worst-
T = 40 C
a
o
case conditions used to calculate the SLR, the DLR is
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 typically much higher than the SLR. Fig. 4 shows a typical
wind speed [m/s]
DLR duration curve calculated using actual measured
Fig. 3. Variation of line rating with ambient weather values of weather conditions for a location in Osaka, Japan
conditions. (Ngoko et al., 2017).
2.5
rating (SLR) ensures a very low probability of the actual the respective value of Pgi , Pri , or Pdi is zero
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Tokyo, Japan, September 4-6, 2018 Bonface O. Ngoko et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-28 (2018) 185–190
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IFAC CPES 2018
Tokyo, Japan, September 4-6, 2018 Bonface O. Ngoko et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-28 (2018) 185–190 189
35 1000 4200
DLR DLR Ctotal (Ta = 15oC) Crtotal (Ta = 15oC)
30 SLR SLR
Ctotal (Ta = 25oC) Crtotal (Ta = 25oC)
20
900 4100
15
10
850 4050
5
0 800 4000
1 2 13 22 23 27 5 14 24 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Bus Number Wind Speed [m/s]
Fig. 6. Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) at buses with Fig. 7. Variation of IRE uncertainty costs and total costs
thermal generators (in blue) and IRE sources (in red). with ambient weather conditions around line 21-22.
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