Arab J Geosci
DOI 10.1007/s12517-011-0391-7
ORIGINAL PAPER
A new approach for the geological risk evaluation of coal
resources through a geostatistical simulation
Case study: Parvadeh III coal deposit
Omid Ashgari & Nasser Madani Esfahani
Received: 30 May 2011 / Accepted: 22 August 2011
# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2011
Abstract Estimations of mineral resources and ore reserves
have been recently widely used by mining engineers and
investors. The classification framework based on the
prepared code by the Joint Ore Reserves Committee of
The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy,
Australian Institute of Geoscientists and Minerals Council
of Australia (JORC code), which is one of the international
standards for mineral resource and ore reserve reporting,
provides a template system that conforms to international
society requirements. Recent research has shown that an
existing fault risk can affect the mineral resource and ore
reserve estimation. According to this research, the faulted
area that is involved in the effect on the estimated region is
so extensive that it is not distinguishable. In this research, a
new method called FGT (F for fault, G for grade and T for
thickness) is introduced and presented for the estimation of
mineral resources. The proposed method can provide an
error map of a particular aspect of the combination of coal
accumulation (G), fault risk (F) and thickness (T), and its
output would categorise the mineral resources. This method
was implemented in the Parvadeh Ш coal deposit, which is
located in the eastern portion of Central Iran. The deposit
contains five seams named B1, B2, C1, C2 and D; of these,
C1 was selected as the most important seam in the
O. Ashgari (*)
Department of mining engineering, University of Tehran,
Tehran, Iran
e-mail: O.Asghari@ut.ac.ir
N. Madani Esfahani
Young Researchers Club, South Tehran Branch,
Islamic Azad University,
Tehran, Iran
e-mail: N_Madani@azad.ac.ir
exploratory grid analysis. Thus, C1 alone can reflect the
properties of the Parvadeh Ш deposit. In this study, we
compared the conventional method and the FGT method.
This comparison indicated that the areas that should be
rejected from the region in the FGT method are less and
more distinguishable than those determined with the
conventional method. Therefore, the inferred resources
can be completely differentiated from the indicated and
measured resources with a high resolution. The conven-
tional method cannot distinguish between these three
categories at this level of resolution. Therefore, the FGT
approach has high precision in classifying the coal resource
compared to the conventional method.
Keywords Mineral resource classification . JORC code .
Geostatistical simulation . FGT
Introduction
Recently, the utilisation of international standards and codes in
mining sciences has become common; the use of these
standards has been legalised for some international banks as
a reliable code for reporting and estimating mineral resources
and ore reserves. The estimation of ore reserves and mineral
resources conforms to these standards, and the JORC code,
specifically, is very reliable in cases of geological uncertainty
(Li et al. 2008). Although geological uncertainty is a
significant factor in the estimation, classification and eco-
nomical evaluation of ore deposits, ignoring the risk of the
fault existence leads to an incorrect ore reserve and mineral
resource estimation (Dimitrakopoulos and Li 2001). There-
fore, it is necessary to analyse the fault existence risk. A
successful approach requires the consideration of the following
attributes: (1) the position of the faults and their trends in 2-D

should be characterised by field and remote sensing studies; (2)
the property of faults should clarify the faulting area in the
map; and (3) the fault analysis should be interpretable
according to the produced map.
In coal exploration, many attempts have been made
to evaluate the risk of the fault existence (Li et al.
2008; Dimitrakopoulos and Li 2001; Escuder et al. 2003;
Li and Dimitrakopoulos 2002). According to the methods
presented previously, the fault uncertainty measurement is
considered prior to the coal resource estimation, i.e., the
probability map is divided into parts, and the parts that
have an approximate probability of 100% should be
rejected from the base probability map. One of the
probability map practices that can evaluate the fault risk
within the region identifies the mine opening location and
enhances the long wall operation (Dimitrakopoulos and Li
2001). Another advantage of a fault probability map is
the measurement of fault risk. However, conventional
methods have some significant drawbacks. When the
faulted areas are extensive, it is difficult to differentiate
between the faulted areas with a probability of more
than 100%, and the non-faulted area should be rejected
from the entire area. In this research, a new method is
presented to determine the coal resource estimation by
determining the fault risk in Parvadeh III in the Tabas area
east of Iran. The accumulation and fault risk of the coal
deposit were determined by a geostatistical simulation, and
the error was calculated based upon the variance of
accumulation. The error in the region can classify the coal
resources by the fault uncertainty. To highlight some of the
benefits of this method in comparison with the conventional
method, the coal resource was first classified and then
compared with the FGT (F for fault, G for grade and T for
thickness) method.
Mineral resource classification
Reports written according to the JORC code require the use
of a geological confidence level, which is called geological
uncertainty. Companies and people who classify the mineral
resources and ore reserves need a transparent and compe-
tent template for the classification to conform to interna-
tional standards requirements. The conventional method
has been used to classify the resources and reserves by
means of subjective criteria (Dimitrakopoulos and Li 2001;
Dimitrakopoulos et al. 2005; JORC code 2004). The JORC
code provides guidelines and standards for the general
reporting of exploration results and the estimation of
mineral resources and ore reserves. Transparency, materiality
and competency are the main principles for using this code.
Transparency means that the reader of the report should
Arab J Geosci
clearly identify the necessary information from report.
Materiality means that the report should contain all of the
ingredients that the investors and their professional consul-
tants need to apprehend. Competency means that the report
should be prepared by a person who has the appropriate
capabilities. The definition of the mineral resource classifica-
tion used to reflect the geological confidence level is outlined
as follows (JORC code 2004).
A ‘Mineral Resource’ is a concentration or occurrence of a
material of intrinsic economic interest in or on the Earth’s crust
in such a form, quality and quantity that there are reasonable
prospects for its eventual economic extraction. The location,
quantity, grade, geological characteristics and continuity of a
mineral resource are known, estimated or interpreted from
specific geological evidence and knowledge. Mineral resour-
ces are subdivided in the order of their increasing geological
confidence into Inferred, Indicated and Measured categories.
An ‘Inferred Mineral Resource’ is that part of a mineral
resource for which the tonnage, grade and mineral content
can be estimated with a low level of confidence. It is
inferred from geological evidence and an assumed but not
verified geological and/or grade continuity. It is based on
information gathered through appropriate techniques from
locations such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and
drill holes, which may be limited or of uncertain quality and
reliability.
An ‘Indicated Mineral Resource’ is that part of a
mineral resource for which the tonnage, densities, shape,
physical characteristics, grade and mineral content can
be estimated with a reasonable level of confidence. It is
based on exploration, sampling and testing information
gathered through appropriate techniques from locations
such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill
holes. The locations are too widely or inappropriately
spaced to confirm the geological and/or grade continuity
but are spaced closely enough for continuity to be
assumed.
A ‘Measured Mineral Resource’ is that part of a mineral
resource for which the tonnage, densities, shape, physical
characteristics, grade and mineral content can be estimated
with a high level of confidence. It is based on detailed and
reliable exploration, sampling and testing information
gathered through appropriate techniques from locations
such as outcrops, trenches, pits, workings and drill holes. The
locations are spaced closely enough to confirm geological and
grade continuity.
Coal resource classification is implemented by either
conventional or geostatistical methods. In the conventional
method, borehole spacing is considered to preserve the
homogeneity and continuity of the coal, allowing the type
of coal resource to be characterised as discussed above
(Mwasinga 2001) (Table 1).
Arab J Geosci

Table 1 Examples of mineral

resource estimation in accor- Deposit type Borehole density
dance with drilling pattern
density (Mwasinga 2001) Measured Indicated Inferred

Witbank coal deposit in South Africa 250×250 350×350 500×500

Western Australian heavy mineral sands beach placers 200×40 400×80 800×200

The majority of the codes and standards use geostatistical geostatistical method for classification is the identification of
methods that are known as a standard model for coal resource the regional variable block model by variogram and variance
classification. The most significant factor for utilising the error.

Fig. 1 Sequential Gaussian

simulation flowchart. Based on
this chart, the procedure can
be seen in an algorithm
(Journel 1989)
 Arab J Geosci

The error can be calculated with each confidence level
with the following formula (Mwasinga 2001):
n » o »
Error ¼ Zb ðvÞ  Y s k =Zb ðvÞ ð1Þ
» and the use of correction methods due to estimated fixed
where Zb ðvÞ is a regional variable; Y is the confidence level
(95% confidence level, Y=1.96; 90% confidence level, Y=
1.645; 80% confidence level 80%, Y=1.282); and σk is the
kriging variance.
According to Eq. 1, the error for coal resource classifica-
tion is as follows:
Measured  0:5 > indicated  0:3  inferred
Geostatistical modelling
Many conventional methods are used to estimate the
regional variable by the least square based method, such
as ordinary and simple kriging. These methods have
significant drawbacks such as bias conditionally due to
some underestimation and overestimation; the generation of
smoothed images, which leads to difficulty in mine design;
support (Basarir et al. 2010).
Because of these disadvantages, some researchers prefer
to use conditionally unbiased methods (non-linear) (Li et al.
2008; Yu 2010; Emery 2008). These methods require
important assumptions that can be time-consuming. Fur-
thermore, they present only local uncertainties because each
conditional cumulative distribution function concerns a
single location. It is noteworthy that the single point ccdfs
(cumulative conditional distribution functions) do not
ensure the quantification of spatial uncertainty (Basarir et
al. 2010).
Coal accumulation is caught by multiple thicknesses by
a coalification percentage, which can be applied to the

Fig. 2 Schematic representation

of the method for the quantifi-
cation of geological uncertainty
in coal resource estimation
Arab J Geosci
Fig. 3 Location of Parvadeh
III (A)
resource estimations of tabular coal deposits. In this
research, to investigate the spatial distribution between coal
accumulation and faults in the region, geostatistical
simulations were applied. A relationship between the
indicated point and the other point has been established
among the value of coal accumulation and faults. In
addition, geostatistical simulation is an approach that
generates a realistic image of the spatial variability for the
Fig. 4 Fault map of Parvadeh III in the Tabas region; the denser fault
region is in the west area with an ES–WN trending system
variable under consideration. Geostatistical simulation
provides a set of values that conform to the following
criteria (Dowd 1993): honouring the real values at all
sampled locations, having the same spatial properties,
having the same distribution and being co-regionalised
with other simulated variables. A set of data compatible
with the above criteria was termed conditional simulation.
As previously noted, sequential Gaussian simulation has
been determined as one of the most useful methods in the
mining industry. This simulation method has been performed
on parameters such as grade, porosity and permeability, and it
has shown a good efficiency in the implementation. All
Gaussian simulations assume that all of the row data are
normalised as a basic principle. Therefore, the population of
data should be converted to the normal standard based on the
simulation algorithm as follows (Journel 1989) (Fig. 1):
(1) Transfer the primary data to a standard normal
distribution.
(2) Draw a variogram of the standardised normal data, and
select a random grid (in terms of estimation sequences)
for the simulated points.
(3) Estimate the desired quantity (based on random
sequences) using the kriging method after determining
the function of the desired quantity probability
distribution (pdf–cdf) with the mean and variance of
estimation in each area from the previous estimation.
 Arab J Geosci

9
7

10
6
4
3
2

e
ile

e
e
1

e
ile

fil

fil

ile
fil
fil
le

fil
fil
o fi

f
f

ro

ro
ro

ro
ro

f
ro
ro

ro

ro
Pr

P
P
P

P
P
P
P

P
194 173
224 45
279 8
302 197
177
203
187A 175
324 281
306A 195 178
4000 47
Northing

198 22
212 184
11
282 le
205 316 46 186 o fi
200 284 Pr
23 12
le
188 192 o fi
314A 217 275 283 246 Pr
204 9 317 13
308 3 le
2000 189 206 o fi
211 196 Pr
230 219
202 222
209 32 215 327 14
229 le
o fi
325 326 Pr
239

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Easting
Fig. 5 Boreholes location map in Parvadeh III

(4) Randomly select a value from the function of the (5) Enter the selected random value into the previous data
desired probability distribution (cdf–pdf). grid, and access a simulated value.

a. Thickness (T) b. Carbon (C)

c. Accumulation (T×C)
Fig. 6 Histogram of coal variables in the Parvadeh III coal deposit
Arab J Geosci

a. Fault b. Accumulation
Fig. 7 Omni-directional of the fault and accumulation variables; the spherical model is fitted

(6) Repeat the previous steps until all of the defined grid
points contain an estimated quantity.
(7) Perform a back normal transformation of all of the
data amounts and simulated values of the primary
distribution.
(8) Validate the results.
Conventional methodology for risk quantification
In conventional methods, an error map is produced by
comparing the simulation and kriging results of the
accumulation variable in which the ‘measured’, ‘indicated’
and ‘inferred’ resources could be distinguished according to
the specific error in the map. Next, some faulted areas that
contain a probability of approximately 100% are rejected from
the main error map (Li et al. 2008). One problem of this
method is the deletion of an extensive area due to the
existence of a fault with a probability of 100%; the measured
area is highly influenced by this rejection. Meanwhile, the
simulated fault map could not clearly differentiate between
faulted areas caused by this drawback; as a result, a wide
area was left out from the target region. Conventional
methods use geostatistical simulations to generate multiple
coal resource models based on borehole data. The procedure
is summarised as follows (Dimitrakopoulos et al. 2005; Li et
al. 2008):
(1) Generate a high-resolution coal deposit model (the
‘actual’ deposit) using a stochastic simulation based on
all of the coal seam data and geological information.
(2) Re-block the points in the simulated coal deposit
model to form the similarly sized blocks used in the
estimated seam model below.
(3) Use a conventional method to generate an estimated
seam model based on the coal seam exploration data at
the desired block size.
(4) Calculate the relative absolute error of each block in the
estimated deposit developed in step three by comparing
it to the re-blocked simulated deposit in step two. The
relative error of a unit block j is computed from:
 
Vsij  Vej 
"ij ¼ ði ¼ 1; . . . ; n; j ¼ 1; . . . ; mÞ ð2Þ
Vsij
where "ij is the relative absolute error of the unit block j
with reference to the simulated deposit i, Vsij is the re-
blocked simulated value i of the unit block j, Vej is the
estimated value of the unit block j, n is the total number
of simulated deposits, and m is the number of unit
blocks within the study area
(5) Repeat for a large number of simulated deposits (e.g.,
50 simulations).
(6) Produce simulated fault map, which contains a proba-
bility of approximately 100% from the measured areas.

Table 2 Fitted models to the

fault major and minor aniso- Azimuth (deg.) Fitted model Equation
tropic trends  
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:1 200  2ð100Þ3 þ 0:15h  100
30 Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:1 þ 0:15h < 100 
3
3h h
gðhÞ ¼ 0:24 21;050  2ð1;060Þ3 þ 0:01h  1; 050
120 Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:24 þ 0:01h > 1; 050
 Arab J Geosci

Table 3 Fitted models to the

accumulation major and minor Trend (deg.) Fitted model Equation
anisotropic trends  
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:1 22;700  2ð2;700Þ3 þ 0:15h  2; 700
45 Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:85
 þ 0:1h > 2; 700 
3
3h h
gðhÞ ¼ 0:8 22;300  2ð2;300Þ3 þ 0:1h  2; 300
135 Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:8 þ 0:1h > 2; 700

Risk quantification through the FGT methodology
According to Eq. 1, the grade, thickness, fault risk and
carbon percentage in coal resources may be assumed as
a regional variable. Recent research has revealed the
immoderate efficacy of fault risk on coal resource
estimation. In this section, a new method with the name
of FGT is introduced for coal resource categorisation as
measured, indicated and inferred. In this method, coal
accumulation has been classified as grade (G), fault risk
based on simulation (F) and coal thickness (T). For this
purpose, the following procedure is presented for the
application of the FGT approach by the special application
of fault risk:
(1) Geostatistical simulation of accumulation based on
borehole data and producing E-type and variance
maps (E-type is the average map).
(2) Geostatistical simulation of faults based on exploratory
data and producing an E-type fault map.

a.45°(Accumulation) b. 135° (Accumulation)

c. 30° (Fault) d. 120° (Fault)

Fig. 8 Directional variograms in major and minor anisotropic trends
Arab J Geosci

a. Realization #1 a. Realization #20

a. Realization #40 a. Realization #60

Fig. 9 Four different realisations of accumulation based on the structural analysis

»
(3) Identification of a new regional variable Zb tthrough level (95% confidence level, Y=1.96; 90% confidence
the following equation: level, Y=1.645; 80% confidence level, Y=1.282); and
σk is the kriging variance.
» The error for coal resource classification is as
Zb ¼ F  G  T ð3Þ
follows:
»
where Zb is the regional variable accumulation of a Measured  0:5 > indicated  0:3  inferred
particular aspect on fault risk, F denotes the simulated
values of the E-type fault map, G×T denotes the
simulated values of E-type accumulation. All mentioned procedures are illustrated in Fig. 2.
(4) Providing error map by the below equation:

n » o. »
Error ¼ Zb ðvÞ  Y s k Zb ðvÞ ð4Þ Parvadeh III coal deposit characteristics

The Parvadeh Ш coal deposit is located 80 km southeast of

»
where Zb ðvÞ is the regional variable of coal by Tabas, Central Iran. The northern border of the region includes
particular aspect on fault risk; Y denotes the confidence a coal outcrop as long as 8.5 km with a relatively calm relief.

a. Realization #1 a. Realization #20

a. Realization #40 a. Realization #60

Fig. 10 Four different realisations of fault; all realisations could regenerate the main fault structures well
 Arab J Geosci

a. Realization #1

a. Realization #20

a. Realization #40
Fig. 11 Histograms and variograms of the realisations for accumulation; these honour the primary histogram and variogram
Arab J Geosci

a. Realization #60
Fig. 11 (continued)

This region is limited on the south by the Abhagi and
Badamou limestone formations (Tabas Unit Exploration
1999). Fifty-eight exploratory boreholes were drilled in
order to cut into seam C1, which is the main seam of coal,
at different levels (Fig. 3). The west border is limited by two
faults that divide Parvadeh II from south Parvadeh IV, and
the east border is limited by two other faults.
2-D fault investigation
The fault structures of the Parvadeh III region have been
widely investigated by surface geological studies. This
region is limited by the F22 fault from the north to the east
and F23 in the northwest. Three W-trending F24 and F26
faults, which conform to the anticline axis, limit the
southern border (Fig. 4). The F22 and F23 right slip faults
have a length of about 15 km; they start from the northwest
and in the west–south, they cover Tabas limestone. The F24
right slip fault has length of 16.7 km by an EN–WS
trending system, which starts from the coal zone and finally
links to F23 in the west. The F26 right slip fault starts at
Table 4 Comparison between the histograms of realisations 1, 20, 40,
60 and the primary accumulation values
Histogram Mean (m%) Variance (m%)2
Realisation 1 72.2 220.209
Realisation 20 72.1 205.38
Realisation 40 72.4 198.98
Realisation 60 73.01 199.98
Accumulation 72.41 194.16
The primary variations are less than 10%
adjacent the main coal outcrops and ends in the Tabas
limestone.
Drilling pattern
Fifty-eight boreholes were drilled into seam C1 of the
Parvadeh III coal deposit and, due to the low depth of the
seam, the inclination of most of the boreholes was vertical.
The location of the boreholes is depicted in Fig. 5 on 14
profile perpendiculars to the seam. This pattern was
designed to conform to the preliminary exploration.
Geostatistical simulation development
Statistical analyses revealed that the carbon and accumula-
tion followed a negatively skewed distribution, as presented
in Fig. 6.
For the geostatistical simulation of the fault system, all
data obtained from the geological surveys of region were
nominated, i.e., the faulted areas were assigned a value of
1; and the non-faulted areas were assigned a value of 0
indicated to 0. The statistical and geostatistical simulation
methods performed on the indicated fault data conformed to
our coal resource estimates.
Directional and omni-directional variograms in different
directions were performed to analyse the spatial structure in
the Parvadeh Ш deposit and to determine the coalification
continuity. The directionless variograms of coal accumula-
tion and the indicated faults are illustrated in Fig. 7.
The region displayed anisotropy in different directions
owing to the different ranges in the fitted variogram models
of fault and accumulation. Interestingly, the faulted area had
 Arab J Geosci

a. Realization #1 a. Realization #20

a. Realization #40 a. Realization #60

Fig. 12 The variograms of the realisations for fault; the primary variogram could be reproduced

Table 5 Comparison between

the variograms for realisations 1, Realisation (no.)
20, 40, 60 and primary
accumulation
1 Spherical
20
40
60
Primary accumulation
The variations are less than 10%
Fitted model Equation
 
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:75 21;200  2ð1;200Þ3 þ 0:05h  1; 200
gðhÞ ¼ 0:75 þ 0:05h > 1; 200
 
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:81 21;240  2ð1;240Þ3 þ 0:02h  1; 240
Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:81 þ 0:02h > 1; 240
 
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:79 21;100  2ð1;100Þ3 þ 0:04h  1; 100
Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:79 þ 0:04h > 1; 100
 
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:95 21;150  2ð1;150Þ3 þ 0:05h  1; 150
Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:95 þ 0:05h > 1; 1150
 
3h h3
gðhÞ ¼ 0:87 21;300  2ð1;300Þ3 þ 0:01h  1; 300
Spherical
gðhÞ ¼ 0:87 þ 0:01h > 1; 3050
Arab J Geosci

26
Error Map

18
4000

Fig. 13 E-type map of fault from 100 realisations; the produced map 2000
10
illustrated the faulted areas
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
2
a maximum range in the azimuth 135° that could verify the
main trend of Parvadeh III as being WS–EN. The results Fig. 15 Relative error map for coal; red areas have been classified to
are depicted in Tables 2 and 3 and Fig. 8. be less certain than ‘measured’
Because the Gaussian simulation algorithm is capable of
creating different results, we are able to define a criterion of
uncertainty in an ore body with the differences between Because of the number of sills and nugget effects, the range
different results. Based upon the anisotropy ellipse, 100 has a variability of less than 10%. Therefore, all of the
different realisations of the coal accumulation and fault in results are valid, and can be used for the next stages.
different 150×150 m2 blocks within the estimation space An E-type map was drawn after the validation of the
have been produced using SGeMS software (Figs. 9 and 10). realisations. Thus, an average map from all areas can be
For each block, 100 simulated values have been produced by generated. This map is very similar to kriging map because
applying the SGS algorithm. Unlike with the certainty the map was generated by averaging 100 realisations.
methods, the geostatistical simulation method simulates the Figures 13 and 14 illustrate the E-type of a desired seam
data for each block in whatever number the user wants. This for both fault and accumulation.
property is a major advantage of the geostatistical simulation
method in relation to the interpolation methods because they
give the user the ability to have more spacious possibility 18
models of relevant distribution in an ore body. 16
Error Map
14
Validation of the simulation results
12
4000
10
The simulation results (realisations) are considered to be
acceptable when they can reproduce the resemblance of the 8
2000
population that those histograms and variograms were 6
modelled (Journel 1989). The histograms of 100 realisations 4
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
were calculated, and the illustrations for realisation 1, 20, 40 2
and 60 of accumulation are shown as examples in Fig. 11.
0
As shown, the realisations can regenerate the histogram
of coal accumulation (Table 4). The comparison between
a. Error Map produced by conventional method
the variograms created by the fitted model of raw data
shows that the realisations can properly reproduce the
geostatistical parameters of region’s characterisation; this
result is presented in Figs. 11 and 12 and in Table 5.

b. Relative Error
Fig. 14 E-type map for 100 realisations for accumulation; the regions Fig. 16 Relative error map and error graph; accumulation of error
with high accumulation are indicated in red with different borehole numbers
 Arab J Geosci

100 Development of a conventional method for the optimisation

90 of borehole spacing
80
70 The proposed model is used for the optimisation of borehole
4000 60 spacing. As shown in Fig. 16, the relative error in red-marked
50 areas is high, so it is necessary to drill additional boreholes to
2000 40 properly classify the areas as measured.
30
In practice, alternative drilling patterns have been
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 20
designed, and all of the previously simulated deposits
10
generated were sampled. The virtual samples were then
0
Coal Classification by FGT used in the same way as the real data in the error
quantification process that was previously described. The
Fig. 17 Fault probability map. The areas marked as violet have a
probability of approximately 100% and should be rejected relative error was calculated in four stages (two boreholes,
three boreholes, four boreholes and five boreholes) as
shown in Fig. 16. In this research, the aim was to extend the
Conventional method development for coal resource measured area according to the design pattern. Therefore,
estimation by adding three boreholes (instead of five boreholes) to the
high-error areas, which were categorised as indicated and
The procedure explained in the conventional method inferred, the reduced error (to less than 5%) changed the
section was applied to the database of the Parvadeh III classification of that area to measured (Li et al. 2008).
coal resource. For this purpose, coal accumulation was
calculated by the geostatistical simulation. To produce and Fault risk quantification
analyse only one map, the E-type map was generated as
shown in Fig. 14; a kriging map was produced and the Because fault risk is a factor that should be applied in
relative error by means of Eq. 1 was calculated (Fig. 15). resource classification, the fault E-type map in Fig. 13 was
This map depicts the spatial distribution of the relative error applied. As shown in this figure, the addition of three
from the estimated coal model by the kriging method. It boreholes in the whole region changes the classification to
should be mentioned that the confidence level for provided measured (according to the error less than 20%) (Li et al.
relative error is defined as 95%, which is the highest possible 2008). However, the violet-marked areas should be divided
confidence level for resource estimation and categorisation. from measured area because they have a probability of
The relative error reflects the in situ coal variability and approximately 100% (Li et al. 2008; Dimitrakopoulos and
the spacing of the boreholes. As shown in Fig. 18, the high Luo 2004) (Fig. 17).
relative error is shown in red, while the green areas depict
relative error less than 5%; this is due to the dense
boreholes, in which the accumulation of coal was extremely FGT method development for coal resource
low. It is obvious that these areas require a different classification
borehole spacing pattern; the proposed number of boreholes
in the red areas should be increased. The procedure explained in the previous section for the
FGT method was applied to coal accumulation and fault
risk simulation as follows.
In this section, the value of each block produced by the
0.8
E-type map of fault simulation and coal accumulation was
multiplied by each other, and the new regional variable
(FGT) was generated. Accordingly, it could be concluded
4000
0.55 from the conventional method that the fault existence risk
2000
0.3 Table 6 Differences between areas in conventional and FGT methods
(km2)
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Method Measured Indicated Inferred Total
0.05

Coal Classification by FGT FGT 43.23 23.57 8.2 75

Fig. 18 Error map in order of the coal resource estimation; the Conventional 28.8 30.94 15.26 75
indicated and inferred regions are more distinguishable
Arab J Geosci
has a reverse effect on coal resource estimation and that it
should therefore be rejected from the measured category.
Therefore, the fault existence risk has a reverse impact on
the estimated value. Here, to calculate the regional variable
in the FGT equation, the fault existence risk was supposed
inversely in Eq. 2, and the multiple accumulations and
regional variables are calculated in Fig. 18.
Error map based on FGT
The proposed FGT method can be applied as a powerful
technique for resource classification in coal deposits. The
simplicity of this method can clearly present the coal
accumulation and the fault risk existence in a manner that is
easy to apprehend. In this stage, the error values calculated
using Eq. 3 are presented in Fig. 18. The map is influenced
by fault, and it identifies the measured area. The green areas
are classified as indicated, the red areas as inferred and the
violet areas as measured. As shown in Fig. 18, although the
faults have a high influence on the estimated value, the
differentiation between the inferred areas and the indicated
areas is clearer than with the conventional method, which
can be applied to design exploratory patterns. In addition,
as shown in Table 6, the measured area based on the FGT
technique is wider than the measured area derived from the
conventional method; the indicated and inferred areas based
on FGT are less. Conversely, the delineation between the
indicated and measured areas is clearer and is in accordance
with the defined anisotropy; in some regions that are low in
fault efficacy, the measured category intensity is high.
Therefore, it was concluded that when the risk of fault
existence is greater, the area closest to the centre location of
the faults becomes more distinguishable.
Conclusion
In this paper, a new method for coal resource estimation
based on fault uncertainty was presented. For this purpose,
an algorithm is provided based on the FGT approach to
calculate by a particular aspect of the fault existence risk.
Therefore, the results were compared with the conventional
method to verify the preferences in the proportion of
categorised resources to the conventional method. One
advantage of the FGT method is this parathion between
inferred, indicated and measured coal resource estimation;
in the produced map, these regions can be delineated. This
method can be used as a reliable approach for coal resource
classification with a high confidence level. Utilising the
FGT method can decrease the calculations required and
increase the ability to differentiate these regions.
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