Performance Task No.

1 – Probability and Statistics

Direction: Answer the two questions completely. Show ALL your solutions. Type your answers in an A4
size bond paper.

1. One of your friends knows that you are taking Advanced Placement Statistics and asks for your help
wither Chemistry lab report. She has come up with five measurements of the melting point of a
compound: 122.4, 121.8, 122.0, 123.0, and 122.3 degrees Celsius.

a. The lab manual asks for a 95% confidence interval estimate for the melting point. Show her how to
find this estimate.
b. Explain to your friend in simple language what 95% confidence interval means.
c. Would a 90% confidence interval be narrower or wider than the 95% interval. Explain your answer
to your friend.
d. The lab manual asks whether the data show sufficient evidence to call into question the
established melting point of 122 degrees Celsius. State the null and alternative hypotheses and find the
P-value.
e. Explain the meaning of the specific P-value to your friend.

2. An efficiency expert wishes to analyze the difference in productivity between workers exposed to two
different lighting arrangements. She chooses a procedure in which the same 30 employees work under
each arrangement for 1 week in turn. The outputs of each employee under the two lighting
arrangements, LA1 and LA2, are summarized as follows:

Employee 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LA1 15 23 18 19 27 13 22 20 20 19
LA2 12 22 18 20 24 12 20 20 19 17

Employee 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
LA1 25 26 15 19 19 21 20 30 24 16
LA2 26 20 14 17 15 16 22 26 24 19

Employee 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
LA1 15 20 19 20 17 26 12 10 23 26
LA2 19 18 19 15 20 22 14 13 20 25

a. Find the mean and standard deviation of each of the two 30-element sets corresponding to LA1 and
LA2 separately.
b. Run a two-sample hypothesis test with 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 = 0, 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇1 − 𝜇2 ≠ 0, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝛼 = 0.05.
c. Find the 𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒.
d. From the set of 30 differences (be careful with signs), find the mean and standard deviation.
e. Run a single sample hypothesis test with 𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇 = 0, 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 ≠ 0, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑡.
f. Find the 𝑃 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒.
g. Are the observed differences in lighting arrangements significant? Explain the contrasting conclusions
between the two methods of analysis indicated above.