Sustainability of Renewable Power Generation

sustainability
Article
Solar PV Grid Power Flow Analysis
Qais Alsafasfeh 1,2 , Omar A. Saraereh 3 , Imran Khan 4 and Sunghwan Kim 5, *
1 Department of Electrical Power and Mechatronics, Tafila Technical University, At-Tafilah 66110, Jordan;
qsafasfeh@ttu.edu.jo
2 Sabbatical leave at Energy Engineering Departments, College of Engineering,
Al Hussein Technical University, Amman 25175, Jordan
3 Communications Engineering Department, King Abdullah II School of Engineering,
Princess Sumaya University for Technology PSUT, Amman 11941, Jordan; o.saraereh@psut.edu.jo
4 Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Engineering & Technology, Peshawar 814, Pakistan;
imran_khan@uetpeshawar.edu.pk
5 School of Electrical Engineering, University of Ulsan, Ulsan 44610, Korea
* Correspondence: sungkim@ulsan.ac.kr; Tel.: +82-52-259-1401

Received: 10 February 2019; Accepted: 14 March 2019; Published: 22 March 2019
Abstract: As the unconstrained integration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power into a power
grid will cause changes in the power flow of the distribution network, voltage deviation,
voltage fluctuation, and so on, system operators focus on how to determine and improve the
integration capacity of PV power rationally. By giving full consideration to the static security index
constraints and voltage fluctuation, this paper proposes a maximum integration capacity optimization
model of the PV power, according to different power factors for the PV power. Moreover, the proposed
research analyzes the large-scale PV grid access capacity, PV access point, and multi-PV power plant
output, by probability density distribution, sensitivity analysis, standard deviation analysis, and
over-limit probability analysis. Furthermore, this paper establishes accessible capacity maximization
problems from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standard node system
and power system analysis theory for PV power sources with constraints of voltage fluctuations.
A MATLAB R2017B simulator is used for the performance analysis and evaluation of the proposed
work. Through the simulation of the IEEE 33-node system, the integration capacity range of the PV
power is analyzed, and the maximum integration capacity of the PV power at each node is calculated,
providing a rational decision-making scheme for the planning of integrating the distributed PV
power into a small-scale power grid. The results indicate that the fluctuations and limit violation
probabilities of the power system voltage and load flow increase with the addition of the PV capacity.
Moreover, the power loss and PV penetration level are influenced by grid-connected spots, and the
impact of PV on the load flow is directional.
Keywords: load analysis; renewable energy sources; solar grid station; statistical modeling;
solar energy
1. Introduction
In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has developed rapidly, and the proportion
of PV installed capacity in the power grid is increasing. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the
total globally installed capacity of PV power generation will reach 303 GW [1–4]. Like the wind
power system, the scalability of PV power generation causes a large-scale grid connection, which will
change the system power flow distribution, and even reverse the power flow. Moreover, it will
bring voltage fluctuations or voltage over-limits, which will be on the grid. At present, research on
the impact of wind power grid-connected power systems is relatively mature, but research on
Sustainability 2019, 11, 1744; doi:10.3390/su11061744 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

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the impact of PV grid-connected power systems is still relatively under evolution. Most of the
existing research work is on the impact of distributed PV access on the distribution network [5–9],
and on the impact of large-scale centralized PV grid-connected systems. With the construction
of hundreds of megawatt-scale or even gigawatt-scale PV power plants in various countries,
centralized grid-connected PV power generation has become a hot issue of research and the main
direction of development [10]. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of a large-scale PV grid
connection on the power system.
As conventional energy supply conditions become more severe, PV power generation has become
an alternative energy source for scholars. In traditional power distribution networks, PV power sources
are often accessed by distributed generation (DG), but they are subject to illumination and climatic
conditions. PV power supplies have large fluctuations in active power output, and high-permeability
PV power sources will have a large impact on the distribution network’s power flow, which causes
voltage quality problems such as voltage deviation and voltage fluctuation [11–13]. Therefore,
considering the random nature of the PV output, it is of great significance to reasonably constrain its
accessible capacity.
PV grid-connecting mainly affects the grid power flow distribution, power quality, and dynamic
characteristics. The authors of [5–7] used the deterministic load flow (DLF) to study the grid-connected
power flow problem, and proposed a distributed power access processing method. However,
the output of the PV power generation is randomly determined by the real-time light intensity.
The deterministic power flow calculation method cannot fully reflect and evaluate the influencing
factors and extents.
Probabilistic load flow calculation methods include the Monte Carlo simulation method [11–13],
semi-invariant and Gram–Charlier series expansion [9,14], and point estimation method [15,16].
Among them, the authors of [12] proposed the system voltage evaluation index with PV, but only
considered the impact of a single PV power station. The authors of [13] calculated the distributed
PV capacity, as the radial distribution network can be accepted under the condition of satisfying the
voltage constraint, where the PVs are located in the grid end. The authors of [14] studied the influence
of distributed PVs on the distribution network. The authors of [14] also concluded that a PV grid
connection is conducive to improving voltage quality, and this is not necessarily true for centralized PV
grid integration. The authors of [15] analyzed the probabilistic density function (PDF) after the PV grid
connection, but ignored the correlation between random variables. The authors of [17] considered the
mutual constraints of the wind speed interval and illumination intensity interval. The authors of [18]
studied the joint probability distribution of the PV unit’s on–off time. The authors of [19] considered the
correlation between the branches and characteristics of the voltage distribution, but the above effects of
the PV grid connection on the power of the system branch were not considered.
The new energy power system is experiencing a dual technological revolution. The optimal
operation mode of interaction between the supply and demand groups was proposed for the power
system planning, decision-making, and safe operation [20–25]. The interaction between the supply
and demand groups means relying on the benign and orderly interaction between the supply side
and the demand side in order to optimize the system operation, to achieve the best safety, economic,
and environmental benefits. In [26], a two-layer optimal scheduling model was established for the
intelligent industrial park, in order to participate in the system operation. The scheduling strategy
of the source-charge coordinated operation in the smart industrial park was studied, and the active
participation of the load in the system operation was realized. The authors of [27] studied the fuzzy
opportunity scheduling model of the power system with wind farms, which showed that the model can
achieve good energy saving, emission reduction, and safety economic benefits. From the perspective
of supply and demand, in particular, the emergence of a flexible load greatly enhances the interaction
between the demand side and the grid, but also increases the risk during the operation of the power
system [28]. Probabilistic currents can reflect the impact of this uncertainty on the operation of
the system, and are an important basis for solving the weak links in the power grid. The authors
of [29] proposed a probabilistic power flow calculation method by combining a semi-invariant and
Gram–Charlier series expansion. In the literature [30], a probabilistic power flow algorithm based
on a stochastic configuration point method was proposed based on the uncertainty quantization
theory. In the literature [31], the Monte Carlo method was used as the reference value, and the power
system with wind and PV power generation was considered as the analysis object. The accuracy of the
calculation results of the lower-invariant method for different potentials was compared.
The accessible capacity of the distributed PV power source indicates the maximum capacity of
the PV power supply to access the network under the constraints of various technical indicators of the
power system [32]. The present research on the accessible capacity of the distributed power sources has
yielded certain results. The authors of [33] proposed a method for calculating the admission capacity
based on the dynamic load security domain, and analyzed the impact of different load levels and of
the location of the distributed power grids on the accessible capacity. The authors of [34] established a
distributed power supply capacity optimization model considering the current protection constraints
of the distribution network, and made an intelligent algorithm to solve the model. In the literature [35],
based on the voltage-adjusted maximum admission capacity calculation method, a voltage control
strategy was proposed in order to improve the operating state and the PV penetration rate. The output
fluctuation of the PV power supply causes node voltage fluctuations. The existing literature is mostly
limited to the static safety index constraints, such as voltage deviation and network power flow, while
research on the voltage fluctuation constraints is relatively rare. The literature [36,37] has pointed out
that voltage waves should be considered when calculating DG accessible capacity dynamic impact,
but there is still a lack of analysis for the impact of different power factors on the accessible capacity of
PV power.
In this paper, the steady-state model of the PV power generation system is established.
Quantitative research is carried out by considering the correlation of the PV power plant output
from the perspectives of PV access capacity and PV access point, based on the Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 14-node system and on two provincial-level power grids in Pakistan.
The impact of the large-scale centralized PV grid is also studied when the grid is connected to the
system node voltage and branch current. The accessible capacity maximization problems of the
distributed PV power supply are established by taking into account the voltage fluctuations of each
node of the distribution network, as well as the traditional static safety index constraints. Based on
the genetic algorithm, to solve the model, we consider the different power factor operating conditions
of the PV power supply, analyze the impact of the output fluctuation on the accessible capacity, and
provide a reasonable decision-making scheme for the access planning of the distributed PV power
supply in the small-scale power grid. Moreover, this paper establishes a maximum integration capacity
optimization model of the PV power, according to the different power factors for the PV power.
Moreover, the proposed research analyzes the large-scale PV grid access capacity, PV access point,
and multi-PV power plant output by probability density distribution, sensitivity analysis, standard
deviation analysis, and over-limit probability analysis.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides the PV power flow calculation
modeling. Section 3 gives the analytical calculations of the probabilistic modeling of the PV grid and
its impact on the system performance. Section 4 gives the voltage characteristics analysis. Section 5
provides the simulation results and analysis, while Section 6 concludes the paper.
2. PV Power Flow Calculation Modeling
2.1. The Composition of the Power Flow Calculation Model of the PV Power Generation System
PV power generation units mainly include PV cell arrays, control modules, inverters, and
other parts. In the trend impact analysis, the modeling of the PV power generation unit does not
need to consider the dynamic characteristics of the control system adjustment process, and only
needs to care about its steady-state output result. The characteristics and converter configuration
give the corresponding electric power output sequence. The steady state model has the following
three characteristics:
(1) The inverter appears as a power balance equation on the AC and DC side in the PV steady
state model;
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(2) From the implementation of the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control [38], the active
(2) From
output the
ofimplementation
the steady-state of the maximum
model power equal
is approximately point totracking (MPPT)
the current control [38],
illumination the active
intensity and
output of the steady-state
the maximum model isfor
PV power (except approximately equalcontrol);
the limited power to the current illumination intensity and
(3) the
Eachmaximum
closed-loopPV control
power (except for the
adjustment limited
process power
is not control);in the steady-state modeling.
considered
(3) Each closed-loop control adjustment process is not considered in the steady-state modeling.
Therefore, the
Therefore, the steady-state
steady-state model
model ofof PV
PV power
power generation
generation includes
includes two
two parts
parts in
in the
the dotted
dotted line
line
box in
box in Figure
Figure 1.1. The
The active
active power
poweractually
actuallyinjected
injectedinto
intothe
thegrid
gridby bythe
thePV
PVpower
powergeneration
generation system
systemis
always maintained at the maximum power point, which is guaranteed by its
is always maintained at the maximum power point, which is guaranteed by its MPPT control, andMPPT control, and the
system
the is used
system for power
is used flow flow
for power calculation [39–43].
calculation The PV
[39–43]. Thepower generation
PV power systemsystem
generation model is shown
model is
as follows:
shown as follows:
P = max {ηPPV (V )} , (1)
𝑃 = P≤ max
PSET 𝜂𝑃 𝑉 , (1)
where P is the active power actually injected into the grid by the PV unit, PPV (V ) is the active-voltage
where 𝑃 is the active power actually injected into the grid by the PV unit, 𝑃 𝑉 is the active-
relationship (P–V characteristic) of the PV array, η is the converter conversion efficiency, and PSET is the
voltage relationship (P–V characteristic) of the PV array, 𝜂 is the converter conversion efficiency, and
limit output command value of the grid dispatch. In the power flow calculation, the PV grid-connected
𝑃 is the limit output command value of the grid dispatch. In the power flow calculation, the PV
node is treated as a active reactive power (PQ) node, and the reactive power output of the PV power
grid-connected node is treated as a active reactive power (PQ) node, and the reactive power output
plant is set to zero.
of the PV power plant is set to zero.
It can be known from Equation (1) that the active output of the PV system is an optimization
It can be known from Equation (1) that the active output of the PV system is an optimization
problem, and the P–V characteristics of the PV array are required in the power flow calculation.
problem, and the P–V characteristics of the PV array are required in the power flow calculation.
Calculate the
Calculate PV IV
characteristic
maximum power Active Power P
Light Intensity G point based on the
parameters in a
given environment
IV characteristic Reactive Power Q
Ambient Temperature T parameters
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Steady
Steady state
state model
model of
of the
the solar
solar photovoltaic
photovoltaic (PV)
(PV) power
power system.
system.
2.2. Power Flow Calculation of the PV Power System Based on the MPPT Control Model
In practice, the output voltage of a single PV cell is low and the output power is small. To To match
the input voltage requirement of a large-capacity converter,
converter, it is generally necessary to connect a large
number of PV cells in series to form a PV module in order to increase its output voltage. The PV cell
which is
array structure is shown in Figure 2, which is used
used to
to increase
increase the
the capacity
capacity utilization
utilizationof
ofthe
theinverter.
inverter.
For the purpose of a unified MPPT control and mitigating the hot spot effect, the PV cells with the
same PV array are required to be as similar as possible in the characteristics, so the difference can be
neglected in the modeling. The output current I𝑰 and andV𝑽ofofthe
thePVPVarray
arrayare
areshown
shownasasfollows:
follows:
( 𝑰 = 𝑵𝑷 𝑰𝑪𝑬𝑳𝑳
I=
𝑽 =N ICELL ,
𝑵P𝑺 𝑽
(2)
𝑪𝑬𝑳𝑳 , (2)
V = NS VCELL
where 𝑵𝑷 , 𝑵𝑺 , 𝑰𝑪𝑬𝑳𝑳 , and 𝑽𝑪𝑬𝑳𝑳 denote the number of parallel connections, the number of serial PV
cells, the
where NPoutput current
, NS , ICELL , andofVthe PV cell, and the output voltage of PV cell, respectively. Based on the
CELL denote the number of parallel connections, the number of serial PV
above structure, the steady state
cells, the output current of the PV construction of output
cell, and the the PV cell is used
voltage in this
of PV cell,paper, for which
respectively. the analog
Based on the
equivalent circuit is shown in Figure 3, where
above structure, the steady state construction of the PV 𝐏𝐇 𝑰 cell is used in this paper, for which the of
is the photo-generated current the
analog
semiconductor
equivalent circuit PN junction,
is shown 𝑰𝐃 is PN
in Figure junction
3, where forward
IPH is conduction current,
the photo-generated current of𝑹𝐋theand 𝑹𝐒 are the
semiconductor
leakage
PN junction, ID is PN junction forward conduction current, RL and RS are the leakage resistance and
resistance and contact resistance between the electrodes on both sides of the PN junction, and
𝑰𝐋 is the inter-electrode leakage current.
contact resistance
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leakage current.
Photovoltaic Module
Photovoltaic Module
Figure 2. PV cell array structure.

Figure 2. PV
Figure cellcell
2. PV array structure.
array structure.
Figure 3. Single-index equivalent model of the PV cells.

Figure 3. Single-index equivalent model of the PV cells.
The characteristic function is 3.
Figure Single-index
a single equivalent
exponential model ofmodel
equivalent the PV [29,30],
cells. as follows:
The characteristic function is a single exponential equivalent model [29,30], as follows:
The characteristic function is a single exponential q(equivalent
V + IRs ) model [29,30], V + IRas follows:

ICELL = IPH − ID − IL = IPH − I0 exp 𝒒 𝑽 + 𝑰𝑹𝐬 − 1 − 𝑽 + 𝑰𝑹s 𝐬, (3)
𝑰𝐂𝐄𝐋𝐋 = 𝑰𝐏𝐇 − 𝑰𝐃 − 𝑰𝐋 = 𝑰𝐏𝐇 − 𝑰𝟎 𝐞𝐱𝐩 𝒒AkT 𝑽𝑨𝒌𝑻 + 𝑰𝑹𝐬 − 𝟏 − 𝑽R+𝑹 L 𝑰𝑹 , (3)
𝐋 𝐬
𝑰𝐂𝐄𝐋𝐋 = 𝑰𝐏𝐇 − 𝑰𝐃 − 𝑰𝐋 = 𝑰𝐏𝐇 − 𝑰𝟎 𝐞𝐱𝐩 −𝟏 − , (3)
where I0 is q is𝒒 the 𝑨𝒌𝑻of the element,𝑹k𝐋 is the Boltzmann
where 𝑰𝟎 theis thediode
diode reverse saturation
reverse saturation current,
current, is the chargecharge of the element, 𝒌 is the Boltzmann
constant, 𝑰
A is the diode constant, and T is the
constant,𝟎 𝑨 is the diode constant, and 𝑻 is the ambient temperature.
where is the diode reverse saturation ambient
current, 𝒒 temperature.
is the charge of the element, 𝒌 is the Boltzmann
Some
constant,Some𝑨physical
physical quantities
is the diode of
constant,
quantities and 𝑻 is
Formula
of Formula (3) are
(3)the not
areambient easy to obtain in ananengineering
to
not easytemperature. obtain in engineering application.
application. The
The moreSome common physical parameters
quantities areof short
Formula circuit
(3) currents
are not (I
easy SC0 to ), open
obtain
more common parameters are short circuit currents (𝑰𝐒𝐂𝟎), open circuit voltage (𝑽𝐎𝐂𝟎 ), maximum the circuit
in an voltage
engineering (VOC0 ), maximum
application. The
themore
power
power voltageparameters
common
voltage (Vm0),),and
(𝑽 and maximum
maximum powercurrents
are short circuit
power current
current (𝑰 (I(𝑰m0 ),), which are provided
open circuit voltageby (𝑽the ),manufacturer
maximum the
𝐦𝟎 𝐦𝟎 ), which are provided by
𝐒𝐂𝟎 𝐎𝐂𝟎the manufacturer
under
power rated
under ratedvoltage light intensity
(𝑽𝐦𝟎intensity
light (G
), and maximum
STC ) and
(𝑮𝐒𝐓𝐂 ) and temperature
power current (𝑰
temperature (T STC
(𝑻 )
𝐦𝟎𝐒𝐓𝐂
conditions.
), which The
are provided
) conditions. characteristic quantity
by the manufacturer
The characteristic quantity
(standard condition defines the temperature is 25 ◦ C, the light intensity is 1000 W/m 2 ), and the
under rated light
(standard condition defines the intensity (𝑮 ) and temperature
𝐒𝐓𝐂temperature is 25 °C, 𝐒𝐓𝐂 (𝑻 ) conditions. The characteristic
the light intensity is 1000 W/m ), and the 2 quantity
variation
(standard
variation of ofthese
condition
these characteristic
defines the
characteristic quantities
temperature
quantities cancan be calculated
isbe °C, the according
25calculated light to to
intensity
according Formula
is 1000 (4),
Formula W/m
(4),under thethe
2), and
under
condition
variation
condition of of any light
theselight
of any intensity
characteristic(G)
intensity (𝑮) and temperature
quantities (T),
can be calculated
and temperature deviating
(𝑻), deviating from
according the
from the rated
toratedcondition,
Formula wherein
(4), under
condition, the
wherein
a, b, c are the compensation coefficients, and e is the base of the
𝒂, 𝒃, 𝒄 are the compensation coefficients, and 𝒆 is the base of the natural logarithm. In this paper,
condition of any light intensity (𝑮) and temperature (𝑻), deviating natural
from logarithm.
the rated In
condition, this paper,
wherein
IPH𝒂,
𝑰𝐏𝐇𝒃,=
= I𝒄SC𝑰are
, Rsthe ≈ 0, and Rs ≈ ∞ are approximated and 𝒆inisthe themodeling, so that the external characteristics
𝐒𝐂 , 𝑹𝐬 ≈ 𝟎, and 𝑹𝐬 ≈ ∞ are approximated in the modeling, so that the external characteristics
compensation coefficients, base of the natural logarithm. In this paper,
𝑰of𝐏𝐇the
= 𝑰PV ,
𝐒𝐂 cell𝑹 ≈ 𝟎, and
𝐬 are simplified 𝑹𝐬 ≈ ∞to Formula (5), and the relationship between parameters 𝒎, 𝒏 and the
are approximated in the modeling, so that the external characteristics
of the PV cell
respective featureare simplified
quantities,to is Formula
as shown(5), and the relationship
in Formula (6). between parameters 𝒎, 𝒏 and the
respective feature quantities, is as shown in Formula (6).
of the PV cell are simplified to Formula (5), and the relationship between parameters m, n and the
respective feature quantities, is as shown in Formula (6).

G
ISC = ISC0 GSTC [1 + a ( T − TSTC )]




VOC = VOC0 [1 − c( T − TSTC )] ln[e + b( G − GSTC )]

G
(4)
 Im = Im0 ( GSTC

 )[1 + a( T − TSTC )]

 V = V [1 − c( T − T )] ln[e + b( G − G )]
m m0 STC STC
ICELL = ISC {1 − m[exp(nVCELL ) − 1]} (5)


VOC
− Im VOC −Vm
m = ISCISC


(6)
 n = 1 ln 1+m

VOC m
By substituting Equation (2) into Equation (5), the I–V relationship of the PV array is obtained, and
the P–V characteristic of the PV array can be obtained as shown in Equation (7), which is a single peak
function. According to Equation (1), the output of the PV power generation is the maximum value of
the PV relationship. Therefore, Equation (7) is derived and the derivative function is 0. The only zero
point is the maximum power point of PV, as shown in Equation (8).

n
PPV (V ) = V I = NP ISC V 1 − m exp V −1 (7)
NS

n mn n
NP ISC 1 − m exp V −1 − NP ISC V exp V =0 (8)
NS NS NS
The actual grid-connected PV power station consists of a large number of PV power generation
units connected in parallel, and the existing research is simulated by multiplying the output of a single
PV power generation unit.
3. Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation with PV Power Generation and Its Impact of Power Grid
3.1. Overview of Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation with PVs

The power flow calculation is essentially solving two nonlinear equations, as in Equation (9),
where Y is the node injection power; X is the grid state quantity, which includes the node voltage
amplitude and phase angle; and Z is the power flow calculation result. The output variable is usually
selected among the branch current, network loss, and node voltage amplitude.
(
Y = f (X)
(9)
Z = g( X )
The probabilistic load flow calculation mainly considers the randomness of some variables in
the injected power vector (Y). The purpose is to solve the probability distribution of the system state
variable (X) and the output variable (Z) by the statistical characteristics of the random variable.
For the PV probability model, the authors of [9] and [18] considered that the light intensity obeys
the Beta distribution and the normal distribution, respectively. A large number of measured data show
that the Beta distribution can better describe the light intensity distribution characteristics, and the
probability density function of the illumination intensity (G) can then be described as follows:
α −1 β −1
Γ(α + β)

G G
f (G) = 1− , (10)
Γ(α)Γ( β) Gmax Gmax
where Gmax is the illumination peak, and α, β are the Beta distribution fitting parameters.
In this paper, when we study and analyze the influence of grid-connected PV power plants on
the power flow of the system, the output power of PV power generation varies randomly with the
Sustainability
light intensity, 2019,the
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FOR PEERreactive
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calculation results, the non-sequential Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the probabilistic load
calculation results, the non-sequential Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the probabilistic load
flow. The process of calculating the probability flow using PVs is shown in Figure 4.
flow. The process of calculating the probability flow using PVs is shown in Figure 4.
Start
Input grid power, load, line parameter, light intensity,

distribution fitting parameters α, β; Temperature T and
number of samples N
Number of iterations K=1
Extract the light intensity G according

to the Beta distribution
Calculate the PV cell characteristic quantity VOC, Vm, Isc, Im according to

equation (4)
Calculate the P - V retention coefficient m, n of the PV cell from equation

(6)
Find the fPV(V) even if equation (8) is zero point is obtained by the
dichotomoy
The PV power PPV(V) is obtained from the zero point of the fPV(V) in (7)
Carrying out photovoltaic power flow calculations
Storage result (node voltage and branch power)
K=N? No K = K+1
Yes
Digital characteristics and probability distribution of statistical node

voltage and branch power
End
Figure 4. Probabilistic power flow calculation process with PV.

Figure 4. Probabilistic power flow calculation process with PV.
3.2. Probabilistic
3.2. Probabilistic PowerPower
Flow Flow Calculation
Calculation fromfrom
thethe CorrelationofofPV
Correlation PVPower
Power Plant
Plant Output
Output
Because the PV output is mainly affected by the light intensity, the solar-terrestrial movement is
Because the PV output is mainly affected by the light intensity, the solar-terrestrial movement is
considered. Therefore, when considering the calculation of the power flow of multiple PV power
considered. Therefore, when considering the calculation of the power flow of multiple PV power plants
plants connected to the power grid, the output of the PV power plants with similar geographical
connected to thetends
locations power grid,a the
to have output
strong of the PV
correlation. power
In this plants
paper, with Carlo
the Monte similar geographical
sampling methodlocations
is still
tends toused
haveina the
strong
calculation of probabilistic tidal currents, and samples are generated still
correlation. In this paper, the Monte Carlo sampling method is used
by the in the
Latin
Hypercube-Cholesky Decomposition technique for considering correlation [37–42].
calculation of probabilistic tidal currents, and samples are generated by the Latin Hypercube-Cholesky
Decomposition technique for considering correlation [37–42].
Taking the2019,
Sustainability consideration of three PV power plant accesses as an example, given the Spearman
11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 24
rank correlation coefficients of the outputs, ρ12 , ρ23 , and ρ13 , the correlation coefficient matrix can be
formed asTaking
Equationthe consideration
(11). of three PV power plant accesses as an example, given the Spearman
rank correlation coefficients of the outputs, 𝝆𝟏𝟐 1 , 𝝆𝟐𝟑 , andρ 𝝆𝟏𝟑 , the correlation coefficient matrix can
 
ρ12 13
be formed as Equation (11). ρ =  ρ12 1 ρ23 
 
(11)
𝟏 ρ13 𝝆ρ𝟏𝟐23
𝝆
1 𝟏𝟑
𝝆 = 𝝆𝟏𝟐 𝟏 𝝆𝟐𝟑 (11)
The principle is applied to the sampling 𝝆𝟏𝟑 links𝝆in 𝟏 hypercube method, to generate a set
𝟐𝟑 the Latin
of PV power plant output

The principle sequences
is applied reflecting
to the sampling their
links respective
in the edge distributions.
Latin hypercube The correlation
method, to generate a set
coefficient information is introduced into the sorting step in the cubic method,
of PV power plant output sequences reflecting their respective edge distributions. The correlation by continuously
adjusting the order
coefficient of each sequence
information data,into
is introduced in order to conform
the sorting step intothe
thecubic
specified cross-correlation
method, by continuously[40–43].
adjusting
Therefore, the order
it can of each sequence
be ensured that thedata, in ordersamples
generated to conform areto consistent
the specifiedwith
cross-correlation [40– edge
the respective
43]. Therefore,
distributions of theitPV
can be ensured
powers that thepower
of different generated samples
stations, andare
theconsistent
samples with the respective
also meet edge
the power-related
distributions of the PV powers of different power stations, and the samples also
correlation between power stations. The algorithm flow for adjusting the sequence of random output meet the power-
related correlation between power stations. The algorithm flow for adjusting the sequence of random
sequences is shown in Figure 5.
output sequences is shown in Figure 5.
Start
Form a correlation coefficient matrix Cref (11), set the

iteration error Eerr
Cref triangle decomposed into the lower

triangular array Lref
Form three random sequences corresponding to

the output of different power stations
Random sequence composition matrix G
Calculate the correlation coefficient matrix M of G
Yes ‖M-Cref‖inf ≤ Eerr
No
M is divided into two corners to ger the second angle LM
G= Lref LM -1 G
Reform the contents of G to sequential values
End
Figure5.5.Sequence
Figure Sequence adjustment
adjustment algorithm
algorithmflow.
flow.
The order value in the flow refers to the sorted position value of the actual value in the sequence
(bothThein ascending
order valueorder), and refers
in the flow the Spearman
to the sorted rank correlation
position value coefficient
of the actualisvalueonly inrelated to the
the sequence
sequence of sequential
(both in ascending order),values, regardless
and the Spearman of the
ranksize of the actual
correlation value.is only related to the sequence
coefficient
of sequential values, regardless of the size of the actual value.
3.3. Analysis of the Influence of Large-Scale PV Grid-Connected Power Flow
3.3. Analysis of the Influence of Large-Scale PV Grid-Connected Power Flow
The influence of a large-scale PV grid-connected grid power flow mainly includes the influence
on the The influence
node voltageofanda large-scale PV grid-connected
branch power. The followinggrid power flow
influencing mainly includes
factors—PV the influence
access capacity, PV
on the points,
access node voltage
and PVand branch
output power. The following
correlation—can influencing
comprehensively factors—PV
analyze the impact access
of acapacity,
large-scalePV
access
PV points, and PV
grid-connected on output
systemcorrelation—can
power flow. comprehensively analyze the impact of a large-scale PV
grid-connected on system power flow.
(1) PV access capacity is used to calculate the probability density distribution of the voltage and
(1) power
PV accessundercapacity
differentis used to calculate
PV access the probability
capacity. In addition,density distribution
to further analyze of andthecompare
voltage andthe
power under
influence degree different
of the PVPV grid-connected
access capacity.onIneach addition,
branchtotidal
further analyze
current, the and
branch compare
powerthe is
influence degree of the PV grid-connected on each branch tidal current,
calculated by the probabilistic power flow and the original when there is no PV grid connection. the branch power is
calculated
The standard by deviation
the probabilistic power
of the ratio of flow and thepower
the branch original whenas
is used there is no PV grid
an indicator connection.
to measure the
The standard deviation of the ratio of the branch power is used as
degree of active power dispersion of each branch. Under different PV access conditions, thean indicator to measure the
degree of active power dispersion of each branch. Under different
probability of an over-limit is calculated and is further explained by sensitivity analysis. PV access conditions, the
(2) PV probability of an over-limit
access points are used to is calculated
calculate the andexpected
is furthervalue
explained
of thebysystem
sensitivity analysis.
network loss under
(2) different
PV access points are used to calculate the expected value of the system
PV access points, analyze the characteristics of the system power flow distribution network loss under
different
when thePVPVaccess
accesspoints,
pointanalyze
changes, theand
characteristics of the system
give a reference basis forpower flow distribution
selecting the PV network when
the PV access point changes, and give a reference basis for selecting the PV network location.
location.
(3) According
(3) Accordingto tothe
the correlation
correlationdegree
degree ofof the
the PV
PV power
power plant
plant output,
output, the
the correlation
correlation of of the
the PV
PV
outputisisdivided
output dividedintointothree
threelevels—high
levels—highcorrelation,
correlation,medium
mediumcorrelation,
correlation,and andlowlowcorrelation.
correlation.
ThePV
The PV output
output correlation
correlation isis also
also used
used to to calculate
calculate thethe probability
probability density
density distribution
distribution of of the
the
voltageand
voltage andpower
powerunder
underdifferent
differentcorrelation
correlationcoefficients,
coefficients, toto analyze
analyze thethe fluctuation
fluctuation range,
range, and
and
toobtain
to obtainthetheinfluence
influenceof ofthe
thePVPVoutput
outputcorrelation
correlation on on grid
grid power
power flow.
flow.
4. Voltage
4. Voltage Characteristics
Characteristics Analysis
Analysis
The traditional
The traditional distribution
distribution network
network is is generally
generally an an open-loop
open-loop operation,
operation, andand the
the single-supply
single-supply
radial structure network shown in Figure 1 can be used to equilibrate
radial structure network shown in Figure 1 can be used to equilibrate the normal operation of the normal operation of the
the
distribution network [12].
[12]. As
As the
thefeeder
feederline
linelength
lengthin inthe
thelow-voltage
low-voltagedistribution
network is isusually
usually
short, the feeder can be ignored. At the same time, it is considered that
short, the feeder can be ignored. At the same time, it is considered that the PV power supply the PV power supply distributed
to the distribution
distributed network often
to the distribution relies on
network therelies
often user’son roof
theconstruction, and the capacity
user’s roof construction, and is
thesmall. It is
capacity
reasonable
is small. It istoreasonable
assume that to it does not
assume have
that a pressure
it does not have regulation
a pressure capability.
regulation capability.
In Figure 6, the feeder has a total of n nodes. Node
In Figure 6, the feeder has a total of 𝒏 nodes. Node 0 represents 0 represents the busthe
of the
busdistribution network,
of the distribution
which is the common connection point with the upper network. Nodes
network, which is the common connection point with the upper network. Nodes 1 to 𝒏 represent 1 to n represent the other nodes
the
in the distribution network. If its power value is set to 0, it means that there
other nodes in the distribution network. If its power value is set to 0, it means that there is no PV is no PV power or load on
the node.
power or load R + X and P
k onk the node. k + jQ represent the equivalent impedance of the kth
𝑹𝒌k + 𝑿𝒌 and 𝑷𝒌 + 𝒋𝑸𝒌 represent the equivalent impedance of the 𝒌th feeder and the power
flowingand
feeder throughthe the feeder,
power respectively.
flowing through PDG,kthe+feeder,
jQ DG,k and PL + jQ L represent
respectively. 𝑷𝑫𝑮,𝒌 + 𝒋𝑸 the PV power output
𝑫𝑮,𝒌 and 𝑷𝑳 + 𝒋𝑸𝑳
at node k and the load power, respectively.
represent the PV power output at node 𝒌 and the load power, respectively.
Figure 6.
Figure PVdistribution
6. PV distribution system
system model.
model.
According to the power system analysis theory [11], when the distributed PV power source is
not connected, the voltage deviation ∆𝑼𝒌 % of the node at the feeder 𝒌 is given as follows:
According to the power system analysis theory [11], when the distributed PV power source is not
connected, the voltage deviation ∆Uk % of the node at the feeder k is given as follows:
h i
∑ik=0 Ri ∑nj=i PL,j + Xi ∑nj=i Q L,j
∆Uk % = − × 100%. (12)
Un2
After the PV power source is connected to the feeder node, the output current direction is opposite
to the load. The voltage deviation ∆Uk % of node k after accessing the PV power source can be expressed
as follows:
 h i h i
∑ik=0 Ri ∑nj=i PPV,j + Xi ∑nj=i Q PV,j ∑ik=0 Ri ∑nj=i PL,j + Xi ∑nj=i Q L,j
∆Uk % =  −  × 100%. (13)
Un2 Un2
Voltage fluctuations are generally based on time-domain simulation analysis. Let ∆SPV, k be the
instantaneous change of electromagnetic power output from the PV power supply at node k. Then,
when ∆SPV, k = ∆PPV, k + ∆Q PV, k , the approximate numerical calculation method of the voltage
fluctuation is given as follows:
h i
∑ik=0 Ri ∑nj=i ∆PPV,j + Xi ∑nj=i ∆Q PV, j
d PV, k % = × 100%, (14)
Un2
where d PV, k represents the voltage fluctuation value at node k caused by DG power fluctuations.
The fluctuation of the PV power output produces significant voltage fluctuations. Let λ PV be
the PV power supply power fluctuation coefficient, which is the instantaneous change of the output
electromagnetic power, and that accounts for the rated power. Then, the ratio is calculated by the
approximation of the voltage fluctuation as follows:
h i
∑ik=0 λ PV Ri ∑nj=i PPV,j + Xi ∑nj=i Q PV, j
d PV, k % = × 100%. (15)
Un2
4.1. Accessible Capacity Optimization Model

In this paper, the PV maximum access capacity optimization model is established. In addition to
the common static safety index constraints, the voltage fluctuation index is not limited. The genetic
algorithm and Newton–Raphson algorithm are used to calculate the power flow.
4.1.1. Objective Function

Assuming that the PV of the access node is operating at its rated power, then the PV accessible
capacity is expressed as the sum of the rated power of the grid-connected PV units. Based on this, the
objective function of the accessible capacity maximization problem is given as follows:
!
m
f = max ∑ PPV,i , (16)
i =1
where PPV,i is the rated power of the node i and m is the number of PV units.
4.1.2. Restrictions
In addition to the static safety constraints, such as the common voltage deviation constraints and
line thermal constraints, the mathematical model can be expressed as follows:
Ui min ≤ Ui ≤ Ui max (17)

dk % ≤ dmax % (18)
0 ≤ PPV,j ≤ PPV max,j (19)
| Pk | ≤ Pline−max , (20)
where Ui max and Ui min represent the upper and lower limits of the node i voltage, respectively; dmax
represents the upper limit of the voltage fluctuation; PPV max,j represents the maximum power of
the PV power source; and | Pk | and Pline−max are the line active power amplitude and the maximum
allowable power value of the line, respectively.
4.2. Model Solving

4.2. Model Solving
A largeAnumber of studies have shown that genetic algorithms can successfully deal with optimization
large number of studies have shown that genetic algorithms can successfully deal with
problems [13]. When solving[13].
optimization problems the When
accessible capacity
solving optimization
the accessible capacitymodel, the Newton–Raphson
optimization model, the Newton–algorithm
has been used to
Raphson solve the
algorithm haspower flowtoand
been used solvemake the individual
the power satisfy
flow and make thethe constraints
individual expressed
satisfy the by
constraints
Equations (6)–(9).expressed by Equations
The conditions (6)–(9). Theprinciples
and calculation conditions are
and shown
calculation principles
in Figure 7. are shown in
Figure 7.
Start
Enter Network Data
Generating Initial Population
Power Flow Calculation
Individual Fitness Calculation
Yes
Satisfying Convergence
Condition ?
No
Genetic manipulation of selection,

crossover, etc.
Output Optimal Solution
End
Figure
Figure 7. Flowchartfor
7. Flowchart for integration
integration capacity determination.
capacity determination.
5. Simulation Results and Analysis

Based on the IEEE 14-node system and a provincial-level power grid system in Pakistan, the
probabilistic power flow calculation with PV is carried out using the MATLAB platform. According
5. Simulation Results and Analysis

Based2019,
Sustainability on 11,
thex FOR
IEEE 14-node
PEER REVIEWsystemand a provincial-level power grid system in Pakistan, 12 of 24
the probabilistic power flow calculation with PV is carried out using the MATLAB platform.
According
to to the
the ideas and ideas and
methods methods
described described
in Section in influence
3.3, the Section 3.3,
of athe influence
large-scale PVofgrid-connected
a large-scale PV
on
grid-connected
system on system
power flow power flow is studied.
is studied.
5.1. Example
5.1. Example 1—IEEE
1—IEEE 14
14 Node
Node System
System
Taking the
Taking the IEEE
IEEE14-node
14-nodesystem systemshown
shownin in Figure
Figure 8 as8 an
as example,
an example, the influence
the influence of grid-
of a PV a PV
grid-connected on system node voltage and branch current flow is analyzed.
connected on system node voltage and branch current flow is analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation The Monte Carlo
simulation
method method
used in thisused in this has
example example has a sampling
a sampling scale of scale
5000oftimes.
5000 times.
A totalA of
total of generators
five five generators
are
are connected to nodes 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8, respectively, where node 1 is used as a balancing
connected to nodes 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8, respectively, where node 1 is used as a balancing machine, and machine,
andtotal
the the total
systemsystem
loadload
is Pis P = 259
load load
= 259
MW. MW.TheThe characteristic
characteristic parameters
parameters of of thePV
the PVcells
cellsused
usedinin the
the
examples are
examples are shown
shown in in Table
Table 1. 1.
Instituteof
Figure8.8.Institute
Figure ofElectrical
Electrical and
and Electronics
Electronics Engineers
Engineers (IEEE)
(IEEE) 14-node
14-nodesystem.
system.
Table 1. Photovoltaic (PV) cell characteristic parameter table.

Table 1. Photovoltaic (PV) cell characteristic parameter table.
Parameter Value
Parameter Value
Short circuit current
Short circuit currentISC0 𝑰𝐒𝐂𝟎 (A)
(A) 4.9
4.9
Open circuit voltage VOC0 (V) 43.2
Open circuit voltage 𝑽𝐎𝐂𝟎 (V) 43.2
Maximum power point current Im0 (A) 4.51
Maximum
Maximum power
power pointpoint current
voltage 𝑰𝒎𝟎 (A)
Vm0 (V) 4.51
34.4
Maximum power point voltage 𝑽coefficient
𝒎𝟎 (V) a
◦ C −1 34.4

Current − temperature compensation 0.0025
−1
Current-temperature compensation coefficient
2 0.0005

Voltage–light compensation coefficient b W/m
0.0025
𝒂 °𝑪 𝟏 compensation coefficient c ◦ C −1

Voltage–temperature 0.00288
Voltage–light compensation coefficient 𝒃 𝑾/𝒎𝟐 𝟏 0.0005
Voltage–temperature
To take the light intensity compensation coefficient
characteristics of three regions in Germany as an0.00288
example, a pseudo-flow
𝒄 °𝑪 𝟏
calculation using PVs is carried out. The fitting parameters of the light intensity Beta distribution in
each region are shown in Table 2.
To take the light intensity characteristics of three regions in Germany as an example, a pseudo-
flow calculation using PVs is carried out. The fitting parameters of the light intensity Beta distribution
in each region are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. PV power plant light intensity distribution parameters.
Light Intensity Beta Distribution Parameter

PV Power Station Region
𝜶 𝜷
PV1 Pak-Power Plant 0.7155 1.8612
Table 2. PV power plant light intensity distribution parameters.
Light Intensity Beta Distribution Parameter

PV Power Station Region
α β
PV1 Pak-Power Plant 0.7155 1.8612
PV2 Liberty
Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR Power Plant
PEER REVIEW 0.5416 1.4527
13 of 24
PV3 Quaid-e-Azam
Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEWPower Plant 0.6332 1.7952
13 of 24
PV2 Liberty Power Plant 0.5416 1.4527
PV2
PV3 Liberty Power
Quaid-e-Azam Plant
Power Plant 0.5416
0.6332 1.4527
1.7952
5.1.1. The Effect of PV PV3Grid Connection
Quaid-e-Azam onPower
NodePlant
Voltage 0.6332 1.7952
5.1.1. The Effect of PV Grid Connection on Node Voltage
Assume5.1.1.
thatThethe PVofpower
Effect PV Grid plant PV1onisNode
Connection connected
Voltage to the system node 4, and the probability
Assume that the PV power plant PV1 is connected to the system node 4, and the probability
density distribution function of the voltage amplitude is calculated by taking node 5 when the PV
Assume
density that the
distribution PV power
function plant
of the PV1 amplitude
voltage is connected to the system
is calculated node 4,node
by taking and 5the probability
when the PV
access capacity is capacity
density
access 90 MW,is 100
distribution MW,
90 MW, 100110
function MW,
of the
MW, andamplitude
voltage
110 MW, 120120MW.
and MW.is The probability
calculated by taking
The probability density
node
density function
5 when
function the PVanalysis of
analysis
this case is shown
access in is
of this case Figure
capacityshown 9.
is 90 MW, 100 MW,
in Figure 9. 110 MW, and 120 MW. The probability density function analysis
of this case is shown in Figure 9.
Density
Probability
Probability Function
Function
Density
Voltage Amplitude (p.u.)

Figure 9. Probability density function analysis for node 5 versus per unit (p.u) voltage amplitude.
Figure 9. Probability densitydensity
Figure 9. Probability function analysis
function for
analysis fornode
node 55versus
versusperper
unitunit
(p.u) (p.u)
voltagevoltage amplitude.
amplitude.
The fixed PV access capacity is 120 MW, and the voltage amplitude probability density
The fixed PV access
The fixed
distribution capacity
PV access
function iscapacity
of node 120 MW,
4, node andMW,
is node
9, 120 theand
14, voltage
and the13amplitude
node voltage inprobability
amplitude
are shown density
Figureprobability
10. distribution
density
distribution function of node 4, node 9, node 14, and node
function of node 4, node 9, node 14, and node 13 are shown in Figure 10. 13 are shown in Figure 10.
Density
Probability
Probability Function
Function
Density

Figure 10. Node voltage probability density function for different buses versus per unit (p.u)
voltage amplitude.
It can be seen from Figure 9 that as the PV access capacity increases, the node voltage probability
distribution becomes more dispersed and the voltage volatility becomes greater. Excessive voltage
fluctuations may cause the node voltage to exceed the limit, which will adversely affect the safe and
stable operation of the power grid. Nodes 4, 9, 14, and 13 are gradually increased from the PV access
point. As shown in Figures 8 and 10, the closer the PV access point is, the larger the voltage amplitude
fluctuation range is.
5.1.2. Influence of PV Grid-Connected on Branch Flow

For the branch flow, a similar trend can be obtained for the PV access capacity. The more
distributed the tidal current distribution is, the greater the volatility is. The standard deviation
of the active power of the branch under the condition that the PV access capacity varies from 80
to 150 MW. It was found that the standard deviation of the relative power values of each branch is
approximately linear with the grid-connected PV capacity, and the increase of the PV grid-connected
capacity does not change the order of influence of each line.
According to the results of the probabilistic power flow calculation, the trend of all of the branches
is over-limit. Some of the results are shown in Table 3 (more than 15% of the absolute value of the
non-PV branch flow is considered to be exceeded). It can be seen from the results that branch 3–4 and
9–10 exhibit a very high probability of exceeding the limit. Branch 9–14 may have a limit when the PV
grid-connected capacity exceeds 100 MW, but the probability is low.
Table 3. Influence of PV access capacity on the probability of branch flow exceeding the limit.
PV Access Capacity (MW)

Branch
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
3–4 0.37 0.40 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56
9–10 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.37 0.40 0.42
9–14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.07
A line with a large fluctuation range after a PV grid connection does not necessarily accommodate
to exceed the limit. The reason is that the power fluctuation of the branch caused by the PV grid
connection is usually obviously directional. Only when the direction of power fluctuation is exactly
the same as the direction of the transmission power of the branch without PV, the PV grid connection
will threaten the safe operation of the line. On the contrary, if the fluctuation range is large for line 4–5,
it will not cause a line overload.
The injection power of node 4 is adjusted in steps of 10 MW in the range of 0 to 200 MW. The ratio
of the sensitivity coefficient to the original branch current is shown in Table 4. The results of branch
3–4, branch 9–10, and branch 9–14 are positive and the absolute values are large. These results indicate
that the change of power flow caused by changing the unit injection power is the largest. Therefore,
when the statistical transmission power exceeds the probability of three branches, this is the greatest
risk, and these results are in complete agreement with the previous conclusions.
If the PV power plant access capacity is unchanged at 120 MW, and Monte Carlo sampling is used
to calculate the total network loss of the system under different access points, then, the network loss of
the system is shown in Figure 11.
Table 4. Power flow of each branch for the node 4 injection power sensitivity (relative value).
Branch Sensitivity Coefficient

1–2 −0.0044
Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER2–3
REVIEW −0.0021 15 of 24
2–5 −0.0048
4–5 6–13 −0.0006
−0.0082
4–9 7–9 0.0008
−0.0008
6–11 9–14 0.0015
−0.0028
6–13 12–13 −0.0017
−0.0006
7–9 1–5 −0.0046
0.0008
9–14 2–4 −0.0057
0.0015
12–13 3–4 0.0065
−0.0017
1–5 4–7 0.0008
−0.0046
2–4 5–6 −0.0008
−0.0057
3–4 6–12 −0.0004
0.0065
7–8 0.0000
4–7 0.0008
5–6 9–10 0.0040
−0.0008
6–12 10–11 −0.0052
−0.0004
13–14 −0.0023
7–8 0.0000
9–10 0.0040
If the PV power plant access capacity is unchanged at 120 MW, and Monte Carlo sampling is
10–11 −0.0052
used to calculate the total network loss of the system under different access points, then, the network
13–14 −0.0023
loss of the system is shown in Figure 11.
Total Netwok Loss (MW)
PV Access Points
Figure 11.Figure 11. Network loss expectation of systems under different PV access points.
Network loss expectation of systems under different PV access points.
The results from Figure 11 can be analyzed, and the conclusions are as follows:
The results from Figure 11 can be analyzed, and the conclusions are as follows:
(1) The original system power is mainly sent out by node 1 and node 2. The integration of the PV
(1) The original
intosystem power
any position, is mainly
except sent2,out
nodes 1 and by nodebeneficial
is obviously 1 and node
in order2. to
The integration
balance the activeof the PV
into any position,
power flowexcept nodes
distribution, 1 andthe
to reduce 2, system
is obviously beneficial
network loss, to select in
theorder to balance
heavy load node, andthe active
to obtain the minimum expected loss of the network loss. From the perspective
power flow distribution, to reduce the system network loss, to select the heavy load node, and of improving the
network loss, the PV grid connection point should be selected at the power receiving end of the
to obtain the minimum expected loss of the network loss. From the perspective of improving
system.
the network loss, the line
(2) If the output PV of
grid
the connection pointpoint
PV grid-connected should be selectedline
is a low-voltage at with
the power receiving end of
a high resistance
the system.value, such as node 12, and the PV output cannot be locally absorbed, then the system network
loss improvement effect is poor.
(2) If the output line of the PV grid-connected point is a low-voltage line with a high resistance value,
such as node 12, and the PV output cannot be locally absorbed, then the system network loss
improvement effect is poor.
5.2. Example 2—Actual Provincial Grid System

The actual provincial power grid system is located in the northern region and has abundant
sunshine. It is suitable for establishing a centralized large-scale grid-connected PV power generation
system and for directly accessing the transmission network. The simulation analysis shows that the
influence of the grid connection of a single PV power station on the system node voltage and branch
power flow is consistent with the conclusion of Example 1. It is limited to the length, and will not be
discussed here. According to the planned total installed capacity of the grid in the region, it will reach
1500 MW. Based on the grid structure of the current power grid, it is difficult to achieve the planned
scale of the single PV power grid. Therefore, adopting multiple PV power plant access systems to
increase the PV installed capacity of the grid as much as possible is considered.
5.2.1. The Influence of PV Output Correlation on Grid Power Flow

As a result of the different grid structures, line parameters, reactive power compensation, and
power generation and load, the maximum PV access capacity of the different PV grid-connected
systems is quite different. Among the location of the PV Internet access and the proportion of output,
four nodes are selected for the PV grid connection, so that the total installed capacity can meet the
planning requirements. As shown in Table 5, the measured power flow is calculated by using the
measured data of the PV power station in the region. In this example, the Monte Carlo probability flow
calculation method is used based on Latin hypercube sampling, and the sampling scale is 1000 times.
Table 5. PV access points and grid-connected capacity (MW).
PV Grid Connection Grid Capacity

PV1 [9] 150
PV2 [13] 450
PV3 [29] 300
PV4 [34] 600
The correlation coefficients according to three coefficient settings (high, moderate, and low
correlation) are shown in Table 6. The results of the calculation of the probability density distribution
of the relative values of the branches under different correlation coefficients are shown in Figure 12
(based on the original power flow without PV).
Table 6. PV power plant output correlation coefficient setting.
(a) High correlation

Spearman Correlation Coefficient PV1 PV2 PV3 PV3
PV1 [9] 1.0000 0.8167 0.8078 0.7476
PV2 [13] 0.8167 1.0000 0.8116 0.7566
PV3 [29] 0.8078 0.8116 1.0000 0.7302
PV4 [34] 0.7476 0.7566 0.7302 1.0000
(b) Moderate correlation
PV1 [9] 1.0000 0.4886 0.4280 0.3226
PV2 [13] 0.4886 1.0000 0.4720 0.4001
PV3 [29] 0.4280 0.4720 1.0000 0.3242
PV4 [34] 0.3226 0.4001 0.3242 1.0000
(c) Low correlation
PV1 [9] 1.0000 0.0939 0.0495 0.0106
PV2 [13] 0.0939 1.0000 0.0627 −0.0019
PV3 [29] 0.0495 0.0627 1.0000 0.0289
PV4 [34] 0.0106 −0.0019 0.028 1.0000
PV4 [34] 0.0106 −0.0019 0.028 1.0000
Probability Density Function

Highly correlated
Moderate correlation
Low correlation
Branch trend (relative value)

(a) Reverse fluctuation
Probability Density Function
Highly correlated
Moderate correlation
Low correlation
Branch trend (relative value)

(b) Positive fluctuation
Figure
Figure 12. Influence
12. Influence of different
of different correlation
correlation coefficients
coefficients on system
on system branch
branch currents.
currents.
It can
It be
canseen fromfrom
be seen Figure 12 that
Figure the larger
12 that the correlation
the larger the correlation coefficient of the
coefficient of output
the outputof theof PV
the PV
power station
power stationbecomes,
becomes, the the
more moreconcentrated
concentrated thethedistribution
distribution ofofthe
thetidal
tidalcurrent
currentbecomes,
becomes,and and the
the smaller
smaller the the fluctuation
fluctuationrange rangebecomes.
becomes.As Asthe thebranch
branch flow fluctuation
flow fluctuation caused
caused by the PV grid
by the PV grid
connection
connection has has
directionality,
directionality, the power
the powerflowflow
maymay fluctuate positively
fluctuate positivelyor reversely
or reverselyafterafter
the grid
the grid
connection.
connection. If theIf fluctuation
the fluctuation is opposite to the
is opposite to direction
the direction of the
of current when
the current there
when is noisPV,
there no the
PV, flow
the flow
will will
decrease.
decrease. TheThe fluctuation
fluctuation with anan
with opposite
oppositedirection
directiondoesdoesnotnotaffect
affect the
the safe operation
operationof ofthe
thegrid,
grid,asasshown
shownininFigureFigure12a. 12a.If If
thethe fluctuation
fluctuation is is
thethe same
same asasthethe original
original flow
flow direction,
direction, as as shown
shown in
in Figure
Figure
12b,12b,
it isit possible
is possible to to cause
cause thetrend
the trendtotoexceed
exceedthe thelimit.
limit.Under
Underthe thehigher
higher correlation
correlation coefficient, the
the probability
probability density
density distribution
distributionexhibits
exhibitsthethecharacteristics
characteristicsofof a peak
a peak andandthick tail,tail,
thick andandthe tail
the tail
probability
probabilityis larger. It can
is larger. It be
canseen fromfrom
be seen Figure 12b that,
Figure although
12b that, the fluctuation
although the fluctuationrange is small,
range the the
is small,
probability
probability of theof tidal limitlimit
the tidal maymay be greater (still(still
be greater based on 15%
based of the
on 15% of original trend
the original as a as
trend basis for for
a basis
judgment).
judgment). Therefore,
Therefore,when studying
when the influence
studying the influence of theof PV
the grid connected
PV grid connectedon theon system
the system currents,
currents,
the correlation of the multi-power station output cannot be ignored. For the node voltage, there are
similar conclusions, which are not repeated here.
Sustainability
the correlation 2019,of11, x FOR
the PEER REVIEW
multi-power station output cannot be ignored. For the node voltage, there 18are
of 24
similar conclusions, which are not repeated here.
5.2.2. Analysis of the Trend Factors Restricting PV Grid-Connected Capacity
5.2.2. Analysis of the Trend Factors Restricting PV Grid-Connected Capacity
As the capacity of the network increases in the calculation of the power flow of the PV systems,
there
Asmay be a phenomenon
the capacity that the
of the network power in
increases flow
thecalculation
calculationdoes
of thenot converge.
power This
flow of thepaper uses the
PV systems,
MATLAB
there may be interface
a phenomenonprogramthat to call
thePSASP
power 6.282 for calculation,
flow calculation doestonot select a 110 KV
converge. bus
This as the
paper usesPV
access
the MATLABpoint,interface
and to obtainprogramthe to
PVcall
critical
PSASP installed capacity
6.282 for when to
calculation, the power
select flow
a 110 KVcalculation
bus as the does
PV
not converge,
access point, andwhich is defined
to obtain the PV as the PV
critical and network
installed capacitycapacity
when the limit. Theflow
power voltage changes
calculation of not
does each
node are which
converge, shownisindefinedFigureas13,the
and
PVtheandnodes
networkwithcapacity
the most obvious
limit. voltagechanges
The voltage drop areofexamined
each nodein
Table
are shown7. in Figure 13, and the nodes with the most obvious voltage drop are examined in Table 7.
Voltage difference (p.u.)
Node number
Figure13.
Figure 13.The
Thevoltage
voltagedifference
differencebetween
betweennodes.
nodes.
Table 7. Maximum voltage drops at node.

Table 7. Maximum voltage drops at node.
NodeNode ∆U/p.u.
∆𝑼/𝒑. 𝒖.
4291 4291 0.0800
0.0800
4337 0.0769
4337 0.0769
785 0.0769
538 785 0.0769
0.0774
4338 538 0.0774
0.0769
783 4338 0.0766
0.0769
783 0.0766
After the PV grid connection, the most obvious point of voltage drop is the 110 KV busbar near
After
the grid the PV grid
connection pointconnection, the most
or its transformer obvious point
low-voltage side of voltage
busbar. Thedrop
mainis reason
the 110for
KVreaching
busbar nearthe
the grid connection point or its transformer low-voltage side busbar. The main reason
grid-connected limit is that when the PV grid-connected capacity is too large, the system’s reactive for reaching
the grid-connected
power compensationlimit is that when
is insufficient, thethe
and PVvoltage
grid-connected
near the capacity is too large,
grid is insufficient tothe system’s
support it. reactive
power compensation is insufficient, and the voltage near the grid is insufficient
In addition, the type of PV grid-connected busbar also affects the PV systems. The changesto support it. of the
In addition,
PV access point busthe type
and theof PV capacity
limit grid-connected busbar
of PV access arealso affects
shown the PV
in Table 8. systems. The changes of
the PV access point bus and the limit capacity of PV access are shown in Table 8.
Table 8. PV limit access capacity for different bus types (MW).
Bus Type Maximum Grid Capacity

Active Reative Power (PQ) 90
PV-to-PQ 120
PV 195
Table 8. PV limit access capacity for different bus types (MW).
Bus Type Maximum Grid Capacity

Active Reative Power (PQ) 90
PV-to-PQ 120
PV
Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 195 19 of 24
For
For the
the PV
PV nodes,
nodes, there
there is
is enough
enough adjustable
adjustable reactive
reactive capacity
capacity to
to maintain
maintain aa given
given voltage
voltage
amplitude. At this time, the PV can have the largest grid-connected capacity. If the node
amplitude. At this time, the PV can have the largest grid-connected capacity. If the node is a PV-to-PQis a PV-to-
PQ
typetype
nodenode
andand
the the reactive
reactive power
power capacity
capacity upper
upper limit
limit is reached,
is reached, thethe
PVPV node
node starts
starts to to convert
convert to
to
the PQ node and the PV grid-connected limit is reduced. When the grid-connected point is the
the PQ node and the PV grid-connected limit is reduced. When the grid-connected point is the PQ
PQ
node, the power is fixed and there is no reactive power adjustment capacity and responsiveness to
node, the power is fixed and there is no reactive power adjustment capacity and responsiveness to the
the voltage changes. Therefore, when selecting a PV access point, from the perspective of voltage
voltage changes. Therefore, when selecting a PV access point, from the perspective of voltage control,
control, it is better to select a node with a strong reactive power adjustment capability and an
it is better to select a node with a strong reactive power adjustment capability and an automatic voltage
automatic voltage regulating device in order to improve the PV receiving capability of the system.
regulating device in order to improve the PV receiving capability of the system.
5.3.
5.3. Distribution
Distribution Network
Network Model
Model
One
One example
exampleofofthe theIEEE
IEEE33-node
33-node distribution
networkstandard
standardis shown in Figure
is shown 14 [11].
in Figure 14 The
[11].
total active load of the distribution network model is 3.5 MW, the load power factor
The total active load of the distribution network model is 3.5 MW, the load power factor is 0.9, the is 0.9, the busbar
rated
busbar voltage is 12 KV,
rated voltage theKV,
is 12 node
the1node
is the1 balance node, node,
is the balance the other nodesnodes
the other are𝑷/𝑸
are the the P/Qnodes, and and
nodes, the
feeders are all LGJ-240 standard overhead lines. According to the provisions of
the feeders are all LGJ-240 standard overhead lines. According to the provisions of GB/T12325-2008GB/T12325-2008 and
GB/T12326-2008
and GB/T12326-2008 [15,16], the constraint
[15,16], of theofvoltage
the constraint deviation
the voltage in theinoptimization
deviation calculation
the optimization is ±7%
calculation is
and
±7%the andvoltage fluctuation
the voltage constraint
fluctuation is ±3%.
constraint is ±3%.
Figure
Figure 14.
14. IEEE
IEEE 33-node
33-node standard
standard system
system deployment.
deployment.
5.3.1. Voltage
5.3.1. Voltage Characteristic
Characteristic Analysis
Analysis
(1) Voltage
(1) Voltagedeviation
deviation
When the
When the PV
PV power
power supply
supply isis centrally
centrallyconnected
connectedto tonode
node17,
17,the
thepower
powerisisavailable
availablefor
for11MW,
MW,
and the
and the power
power factor
factor cos
cos is
is φ
ϕ ==1,
1,the
the voltage
voltage level
level of
of the
the feeder
feeder part
part node
node is
is shown
shown in
in Table
Table 9.
9.
Table 9. Partial node voltage deviation value.
Node Voltage Deviation (p.u.)

1 0.000
3 0.005
5 0.012
7 0.017
Table 9. Partial node voltage deviation value.
Node Voltage Deviation (p.u.)

1 0.000
3 0.005
Sustainability 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW5 0.012 20 of 24
7 0.017
915 0.0410.021
1117 0.0420.031
13 0.037
18 0.042
15 0.041
1719 0.0010.042
1821 0.0020.042
1923 0.0020.001
2125 0.0060.002
23 0.002
27 0.013
25 0.006
2729 0.0190.013
2931 0.0180.019
3133 0.0180.018
33 0.018
In Table 9, the node voltage rise is taken as a positive value. It can be seen that the PV power
supply has9,good
In Table voltage
the node support
voltage rise iscapability
taken as a for the distribution
positive value. It can network node,
be seen that so apower
the PV reasonable
supply
allocation is needed. The access node of the PV power source can be used to improve
has good voltage support capability for the distribution network node, so a reasonable allocation the voltageis
distribution
needed. of the node
The access small-scale
of thepower
PV power grid.source can be used to improve the voltage distribution of
the small-scale power grid.
(2) Voltage fluctuations
(2) Voltage fluctuations
When the PV power supply is connected to node 17 for 𝝀𝑷𝑽 = 0.5, the PV power supply can be
When the
considered in PV powerpower
different supply is connected
factors of cos φto
= 1node
and 17 forThe
0.95. = 0.5, thevoltage
λ PVmaximum PV power supply can
fluctuation valuebe
of the node
considered inisdifferent
shown in Figurefactors
power 15. It can be ϕ
of cos seen
= 1from
and Figure 15 that
0.95. The as the capacity
maximum of the PV power
voltage fluctuation value
ofsupply
the nodeto is
theshown
in Figure increases,
15. It can be seenthe voltage
from Figurefluctuation
15 that asvalue of the feeder
the capacity of thenode also
PV power
increases, possibly exceeding the voltage fluctuation limit. At the same time, when
supply to the distribution network increases, the voltage fluctuation value of the feeder node also the PV power
factor is possibly
increases, higher, then the reactive
exceeding power fluctuation
the voltage output and limit.
the impact
At theonsame
the grid voltage
time, when fluctuation
the PV powerbecome
factor
is smaller. Therefore,
higher, then in actual
the reactive poweroperation, the PV
output and the power
impactsupply should
on the grid be operated
voltage as abecome
fluctuation unit of power
smaller.
factor. in actual operation, the PV power supply should be operated as a unit of power factor.
Therefore,
Figure 15. Impact of PV power on voltage fluctuation.

Figure 15. Impact of PV power on voltage fluctuation.
5.3.2. Maximum Accessible Capacity Calculation

To examine the relationship between the fluctuation coefficient value 𝝀𝑷𝑽 and the constant
volume problem of PV power supply access, it is considered that the PV power sources can access 3,
5.3.2. Maximum Accessible Capacity Calculation

To examine the relationship between the fluctuation coefficient value λ PV and the constant volume
problem of PV
Sustainability 2019,power supply
11, x FOR PEER access,
REVIEWit is considered that the PV power sources can access 3, 6, 14, 16,
21 of18,
24
20, 23, 25, 26, and 28 nodes, and the PV power factor cos ϕ can takes 1 and 0.95. The genetic algorithm
between
is used to the powerthe
optimize fluctuation
maximumof the PV power
accessible capacitysource
model,and
andthe
themaximum accessible
relationship between capacity
the power is
obtained inofFigure
fluctuation the PV 16.power source and the maximum accessible capacity is obtained in Figure 16.
Figure 16.Distributed
Figure16. PVPV
Distributed power system
power maximum
system accessible
maximum capacitycapacity
accessible versus power fluctuation
versus coefficient.
power fluctuation
coefficient.
It can be seen from Figure 16 that under the same power fluctuation coefficient, the PV power
supply access
It can be capacity
seen from is closely
Figure 16 related to the power
that under the same factor.
power As the power factor
fluctuation becomes
coefficient, thehigher,
PV power the
accessible capacity becomes higher. For the unit power factor cos ϕ = 1, when
supply access capacity is closely related to the power factor. As the power factor becomes higher, the the PV power supply
power fluctuation
accessible capacitycoefficient
becomes higher.λ PV < 0.3, the unit
For the maximum
power accessible
factor cos capacity
φ = 1, when of DGthe remains
PV power basically
supply
unchanged, and the voltage deviation constraint is limited. The main reason
power fluctuation coefficient 𝝀𝑷𝑽 < 0.3, the maximum accessible capacity of DG remains basically for the increase in the
capacity
unchanged, of the PVthe
and power supply
voltage is that the
deviation maximum
constraint is accessible
limited. The capacity
main of PV isfor
reason 2.6148
the MW. When
increase in the
the
PV power active power fluctuation coefficient λ ≥ 0.4, the PV power output
capacity of the PV power supply is that the maximum accessible capacity of PV is 2.6148 MW. When
PV fluctuation amplitude
has
the aPVnegative
powercorrelation
active power withfluctuation
the maximum accessible
coefficient 𝝀𝑷𝑽capacity of the
≥ 0.4, the PVPV. The voltage
power output fluctuation
fluctuation
constraint
amplitudeishas theamain reason
negative for limiting
correlation withthethe
allowable
maximum ratio of the PVcapacity
accessible power supply.
of the PV. The voltage
The optimal
fluctuation access
constraint is capacity
the maincalculation
reason for results
limitingofthe each node areratio
allowable listed
of in
theTable 10. These
PV power results
supply.
may be installed as the capacity planning of distributed PV power supplies and
The optimal access capacity calculation results of each node are listed in Table 10. These results provide a reasonable
decision-making
may be installed as plan. At the same
the capacity time,of
planning according
distributed to different
PV powerpower suppliesfluctuation
and providecoefficients, the
a reasonable
optimal accessibility can be calculated for each node of the distribution network,
decision-making plan. At the same time, according to different power fluctuation coefficients, the similar to Table 10.
Therefore, from these results,
optimal accessibility an offline optimal
can be calculated for eachaccess
nodecapacity countermeasure
of the distribution tables
network, can betogenerated,
similar Table 10.
and under different illumination conditions (corresponding to different power
Therefore, from these results, an offline optimal access capacity countermeasure tables can be fluctuation coefficients),
the PV power
generated, andsupply
undercan be used
different to improveconditions
illumination the grid’s (corresponding
ability to dissipate the distributed
to different power.
power fluctuation
coefficients), the PV power supply can be used to improve the grid’s ability to dissipate the
distributed power.
Table 10. PV power system optimal accessible capacity at each node (𝝀𝑷𝑽 = 𝟎. 𝟓).
Node Installed Capacity (MW)

3 0.2237
6 0.2435
14 0.1923
16 0.1835
18 0.1263
20 0.1633
23 0.1752
Table 10. PV power system optimal accessible capacity at each node (λ PV = 0.5).
Node Installed Capacity (MW)

3 0.2237
6 0.2435
14 0.1923
16 0.1835
18 0.1263
20 0.1633
23 0.1752
25 0.5362
26 0.1343
28 0.1604
6. Conclusions
This paper analyzes the large-scale PV access capacity, PV access point, and multi-PV power
plant output by probability density distribution, sensitivity analysis, standard deviation analysis, and
over-limit probability analysis. The correlation of the PV power plant output from the perspectives of
PV access capacity and PV access point, based on the IEEE 14-node system and two provincial-level
power grids, are used to produce quantitative research. From the perspective of improving the network
loss, the PV access point should take the heavy-duty node. When the PV grid-connected capacity is
large, the PV access point should be connected to the high-voltage network and sent out through the
low-resistance line. From the perspective of voltage control, it is necessary to choose a strong reactive
power adjustment node or to configure an automatic voltage regulator. The simulation experiment was
carried out from the examples of the IEEE 33-node distribution network standard, and the following
conclusions were obtained: (1) The distributed PV power supply can effectively support the voltage
level of the distribution network node, but may cause voltage deviation and voltage fluctuation, which
can exceed the limit. (2) The accessible capacity of the PV power sources is closely related to its power
fluctuation coefficient. When the output electromagnetic power fluctuation amplitude is small under
the same power factor, the voltage deviation is the main factor affecting the accessible capacity. When
the fluctuation amplitude is large, the voltage fluctuation index becomes the main influencing factor;
at the same time, the power factor of the PV power source can be lowered. (3) According to the
optimization model proposed in this paper, the offline maximum access capacity countermeasure table
is generated, which provides scientific decision-making schemes for the grid-connected capacity of the
PV power sources under different illumination conditions, in order to improve the grid’s consumption
of distributed power sources. This paper deploys limited power electronics technologies that have
improved on the power efficiency and simple hardware design of the PV standards. Recent trends
focus on more efficient and limited power electronics technologies in this field. In the future, various
influencing factors should be considered comprehensively, the capacity of PV power plants should be
properly allocated, and the ability of the grid to absorb intermittent power sources can be improved,
so that centralized large-scale PV power generation can become a reality.
Author Contributions: All of the authors contributed equally to this work.

Funding: This research was funded by the Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea
grand number NRF-2016R1D1A1B03934653, NRF-2019R1A2C1005920.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Sustainability 2019, 11, 1744; doi:10.3390/su11061744 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

2. PV Power Flow Calculation Modeling

Figure 2. PV cell array structure.

Figure 3. Single-index equivalent model of the PV cells.

ICELL = ISC {1 − m[exp(nVCELL ) − 1]} (5)

3.1. Overview of Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation with PVs

Input grid power, load, line parameter, light intensity,

Number of iterations K=1

Extract the light intensity G according

Calculate the PV cell characteristic quantity VOC, Vm, Isc, Im according to

Calculate the P - V retention coefficient m, n of the PV cell from equation

Carrying out photovoltaic power flow calculations

Storage result (node voltage and branch power)

Digital characteristics and probability distribution of statistical node

Figure 4. Probabilistic power flow calculation process with PV.

of PV power plant output

Form a correlation coefficient matrix Cref (11), set the

Cref triangle decomposed into the lower

Form three random sequences corresponding to

Random sequence composition matrix G

Calculate the correlation coefficient matrix M of G

Yes ‖M-Cref‖inf ≤ Eerr

M is divided into two corners to ger the second angle LM

Reform the contents of G to sequential values

4.1. Accessible Capacity Optimization Model

4.1.1. Objective Function

Ui min ≤ Ui ≤ Ui max (17)

0 ≤ PPV,j ≤ PPV max,j (19)

4.2. Model Solving

Enter Network Data

Generating Initial Population

Power Flow Calculation

Individual Fitness Calculation

Genetic manipulation of selection,

Output Optimal Solution

5. Simulation Results and Analysis

5. Simulation Results and Analysis

Table 1. Photovoltaic (PV) cell characteristic parameter table.

Table 2. PV power plant light intensity distribution parameters.

Light Intensity Beta Distribution Parameter

Table 2. PV power plant light intensity distribution parameters.

Light Intensity Beta Distribution Parameter

Voltage Amplitude (p.u.)

Voltage Amplitude (p.u.)

5.1.2. Influence of PV Grid-Connected on Branch Flow

PV Access Capacity (MW)

Branch Sensitivity Coefficient

5.2. Example 2—Actual Provincial Grid System

5.2.1. The Influence of PV Output Correlation on Grid Power Flow

Table 5. PV access points and grid-connected capacity (MW).

PV Grid Connection Grid Capacity

Table 6. PV power plant output correlation coefficient setting.

(a) High correlation

PV4 [34] 0.0106 −0.0019 0.028 1.0000

Probability Density Function

Branch trend (relative value)

Branch trend (relative value)

Table 7. Maximum voltage drops at node.

Table 8. PV limit access capacity for different bus types (MW).

Bus Type Maximum Grid Capacity

Table 8. PV limit access capacity for different bus types (MW).

Bus Type Maximum Grid Capacity

Table 9. Partial node voltage deviation value.